UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 11 Jul 2026 · Las Vegas, Nevada, US

Adrian Yañez defeats Cody Garbrandt by KO/TKO

Win Adrian Yañez View profile 18-6-1

Loss No Love Cody Garbrandt View profile 15-8-0

Watch the fight

KO/TKO · punches

Round 1 · 2:47

At a glance

Analysts, AI and market side by side. Open a tab for the detail.

Analyst Picks13 analysts✓ Correct 8%1 pick 92%12 picks

Analyst picks AI forecasts Market odds

What happened

The result, the defining moments, and what the verdict means.

Garbrandt opened quickly and pressed the action.

Yañez turned the fight with counter right hands.

Punches from both hands dropped Garbrandt for the TKO at 2:47.

Secondary fallback play-by-play reportSherdog · UFC 329 play-by-play

Pre-fight analysis — how we saw it going in

Case for Garbrandt

The Cody Garbrandt version of this preview starts with one question: how much of the former champion is still there when the fight stays a pure boxing match? Garbrandt's path has not changed even if the mileage has. He still owns the cleaner one-shot power, 11 knockout wins, and a counter right hand that can flip a round instantly. The more useful recent clue is not the old Dominick Cruz title win but the 2026 decision over Xiao Long and the 2023 knockout of Brian Kelleher: Garbrandt can still win when he stays disciplined and picks moments instead of chasing firefights. Against Yañez, that matters because he does not need to out-volume the younger boxer for 15 minutes; he needs to make Yañez pay often enough that the output gap stops deciding the rounds on its own.

Case for Yañez

The Adrian Yañez case is that this matchup is still asking a volume question before it asks a nostalgia question. Yañez lands 5.96 significant strikes per minute, carries a longer reach, and is generally the fighter more likely to make a three-round boxing fight look busy on the scorecards. His recent form is messy rather than empty: a debated draw with Ricky Simon, a split loss to Daniel Marcos, and a first-round finish of Vinicius Salvador in between. That is why this page should frame him as volatile but live, not simply cold. If Yañez can keep Garbrandt resetting behind combinations instead of loading up on counters, the fight starts to look like a pace and activity problem for the former champion.

What We Were Watching For

Whether Garbrandt throws enough early to keep Yañez honest; if the first round is low-volume from Cody, the rest of the fight becomes harder to score his way.
Yañez's leg-kick choices and pocket entries after the Jonathan Martinez loss; he needs pressure without giving Garbrandt the clean counter lane.
The first clean recovery test if either man gets stunned, because both have recent knockout losses on the record and neither wants a long brawl from behind.
How the judges weigh flash versus accumulation if Garbrandt lands the bigger moments but Yañez owns the steadier minute-by-minute output.

Records & career stats

Garbrandt vs Yañez

Garbrandt Yañez

OutputSig. strikes landed / min 2.82 5.95
Striking def.Striking defense 59% 57%
DurabilitySig. strikes absorbed / min 3.69 5.22
Takedown def.Takedown defense 82% 76%
FinishingFinish rate 73% 78%

15-7-0
Record: 17-6-1; 3-2 last 5
Recent form: 1-3-1 last 5; United States
Nationality: United States; 34
Age: 32; 1.70 m
Height: 1.70 m; 166 cm
Reach — Yañez leads: 178 cm; Orthodox
Stance: Orthodox; 73%
Finish rateFinish % — Yañez leads: 78%; 11
Wins by KO/TKOKO wins — Yañez leads: 12; 0
Wins by submissionSub wins — Yañez leads: 2; 2.82
Sig. strikes landed / minStr / min — Yañez leads: 5.95; 3.69
Sig. strikes absorbed / minAbs / min — Garbrandt leads: 5.22; 59%
Striking defenseStrike def.: 57%; 82%
Takedown defenseTD def. — Garbrandt leads: 76%; 09:55
Avg. fight timeAvg. time: 07:09; Xtreme Couture · Las Vegas
Team: Metro Fight Club · Houston

Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Numbers reflect the fighter data snapshot used for this page. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.

Who Called It?

How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.

(1) 8%

LGarbrandt

92% (12)

YañezW

Analyst prediction scorecards

MMA Lock of the Night88 resolved calls MMA Lock of the NightView full track record Winner Accuracy 76.1% 67 21 Method Accuracy 51.9% 14 13 Round Accuracy 50.0% 2 2 Underdog Accuracy 50.0% 4 4 How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls	Historic market Favourite call, market price 77.5%. Yañez · KO/TKO	Yañez · KO/TKO R1	Hit	Hit	Not called
Picks Adrian Yañez by knockout; the source gives an explicit R2-or-R3 range. “a finish in round two or round three by knockout.” Hear it — 36:52 MMA Lock of the Night on YouTube ↗ MMA Lock of the Night’s track record → Track record: winner called in 67 of 88 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Bedtime MMA170 resolved calls Bedtime MMAView full track record Winner Accuracy 70.6% 120 50 Method Accuracy 63.6% 56 32 Round Accuracy 40.0% 10 15 Underdog Accuracy 48.5% 16 17 How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls	Historic market Favourite call, market price 77.5%. Yañez · KO/TKO	Yañez · KO/TKO R1	Hit	Hit	Not called
Picks Adrian Yanez by knockout because he no longer trusts Garbrandt's low-output style to keep up. He expects Yanez's combination boxing, jab and counters to back Garbrandt toward the fence and create the damaging right-hand or uppercut moments. “I'm going with Adrian Yanez by knockout.” Hear it — 14:04 Bedtime MMA on YouTube ↗ Bedtime MMA’s track record → Track record: winner called in 120 of 170 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
TheWeasle163 resolved calls TheWeasleView full track record Winner Accuracy 70.6% 115 48 Method Accuracy 61.8% 47 29 Round Accuracy 36.5% 19 33 Underdog Accuracy 52.9% 9 8 How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls	Historic market Favourite call, market price 77.5%. Yañez · KO/TKO · R1	Yañez · KO/TKO R1	Hit	Hit	Hit
Does not trust Garbrandt's durability against Yanez's boxing. He expects Yanez to find Garbrandt early and finish him in the first round. “I'm going to go with Adrien Yanez knocking out Cody Garbrandt in the first round.” Hear it — 15:29 TheWeasle on YouTube ↗ TheWeasle’s track record → Track record: winner called in 115 of 163 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
The MMA Guru296 resolved calls The MMA GuruView full track record Winner Accuracy 65.9% 195 101 Method Accuracy 52.9% 55 49 Round Accuracy 34.3% 12 23 Underdog Accuracy 45.5% 15 18 How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls	Historic market Favourite call, market price 77.5%. Yañez · KO/TKO	Yañez · KO/TKO R1	Hit	Hit	Not called
Reads Garbrandt as a diminished version of himself whose confidence and willingness to engage are no longer reliable. He trusts Yanez's jab, boxing and composure to keep touching Garbrandt until the stoppage arrives. “I'm going with Cody Garbrandt losing by KO in the first or second round.” Hear it — 22:21 The MMA Guru on YouTube ↗ The MMA Guru’s track record → Track record: winner called in 195 of 296 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
DFS By The Numbers142 resolved calls DFS By The NumbersView full track record Winner Accuracy 65.5% 93 49 Method Accuracy 58.5% 48 34 Round Accuracy 35.9% 14 25 Underdog Accuracy 35.0% 7 13 How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls	Historic market Favourite call, market price 77.5%. Yañez · KO/TKO · R2	Yañez · KO/TKO R1	Hit	Hit	Miss
Leans to Yanez because Garbrandt has become low-volume and chin-conscious. He expects Yanez's forward pressure, boxing volume and power to eventually find Cody in the second round. “I'm taking Adrian Yanez to knock the face tattoo off of Cody Garbrandt's face and with a second-round knockout.” Hear it — 20:35 DFS By The Numbers on YouTube ↗ DFS By The Numbers’s track record → Track record: winner called in 93 of 142 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
We Want Picks145 resolved calls We Want PicksView full track record Winner Accuracy 64.1% 93 52 Method Accuracy 40.0% 2 3 Round AccuracyNamed rounds — none on a correct call yet Underdog Accuracy 34.5% 10 19 How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls	Historic market Favourite call, market price 77.5%. Yañez · to win	Yañez · KO/TKO R1	Hit	Not called	Not called
They think Adrian Yanez is faster, cleaner and more technical, while Cody Garbrandt is too reliant on one big counter. The warning is for Yanez to stay patient rather than chase a knockout and create Cody's best counter window. Jacob liked Yanez by decision, but the shared desk call is stored winner-only. “Adrien's the pick.” Hear it — 69:50 We Want Picks on YouTube ↗ We Want Picks’s track record → Track record: winner called in 93 of 145 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
138 MMA39 resolved calls 138 MMAView full track record Winner Accuracy 64.1% 25 14 Method Accuracy 0.0% 1 Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round Underdog Accuracy 45.5% 5 6 How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls	Historic market Favourite call, market price 77.5%. Yañez · to win	Yañez · KO/TKO R1	Hit	Not called	Not called
Transcript-verified winner pick from 138 MMA UFC 329 full-card prediction. “I'll take Yas.” Hear it — 19:21 138 MMA on YouTube ↗ 138 MMA’s track record → Track record: winner called in 25 of 39 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
HopperMMA120 resolved calls HopperMMAView full track record Winner Accuracy 63.3% 76 44 Method Accuracy 64.6% 42 23 Round Accuracy 47.2% 17 19 Underdog Accuracy 26.3% 5 14 How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls	Historic market Favourite call, market price 77.5%. Yañez · KO/TKO · R2	Yañez · KO/TKO R1	Hit	Hit	Miss
Leans Adrian Yanez because Cody Garbrandt's recent durability and defensive lapses worry him against a cleaner offensive boxer. He gives Garbrandt a chance, but expects Yanez's hands to catch up to him and force a second-round finish. “I'm going to go with Adrian to finish Cody Garin in the second round” Hear it — 6:54 HopperMMA on YouTube ↗ HopperMMA’s track record → Track record: winner called in 76 of 120 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
BetSam26 resolved calls BetSamView full track record Winner Accuracy 61.5% 16 10 Method Accuracy 40.0% 4 6 Round Accuracy 50.0% 1 1 Underdog Accuracy 25.0% 1 3 How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls	Historic market Favourite call, market price 77.5%. Yañez · KO/TKO	Yañez · KO/TKO R1	Hit	Hit	Not called
Transcript-verified winner pick from BetSam UFC 329 full-card prediction. “Yanez by KO, my official prediction.” Hear it — 17:32 BetSam on YouTube ↗ BetSam’s track record → Track record: winner called in 16 of 26 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Pure Picks29 resolved calls Pure PicksView full track record Winner Accuracy 58.6% 17 12 Method Accuracy 58.3% 7 5 Round Accuracy 0.0% 1 Underdog Accuracy 37.5% 3 5 How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls	Historic market Favourite call, market price 77.5%. Yañez · KO/TKO	Yañez · KO/TKO R1	Hit	Hit	Not called
Final pick changed from decision to KO; the later explicit choice is retained. “I’ll change it. Adrien Giannis by KO on Cody Garbrandt.” Hear it — 22:44 Pure Picks on YouTube ↗ Pure Picks’s track record → Track record: winner called in 17 of 29 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Aniki MMA19 resolved calls Aniki MMAView full track record Winner Accuracy 57.9% 11 8 Method Accuracy 77.8% 7 2 Round Accuracy 71.4% 5 2 Underdog Accuracy 0.0% 3 How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls	Historic market Favourite call, market price 77.5%. Yañez · KO/TKO · R2	Yañez · KO/TKO R1	Hit	Hit	Miss
Aniki MMA picks the stated winner. “Give me Adrien Yañez by round two, KO or TKO.” Hear it — 15:56 Aniki MMA on YouTube ↗ Aniki MMA’s track record → Track record: winner called in 11 of 19 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Michael Bisping33 resolved calls Michael BispingView full track record Winner Accuracy 57.6% 19 14 Method Accuracy 40.0% 2 3 Round AccuracyNamed rounds — none on a correct call yet Underdog Accuracy 20.0% 1 4 How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls	Historic market Underdog call, market price 22.5%. Garbrandt · to win	Yañez · KO/TKO R1	Miss	Not applicable — the winner call missed	Not applicable — the winner call missed
Starts by acknowledging Yanez's boxing could fit the matchup, then talks himself into Garbrandt because of the level he has fought at, his wrestling, power and will. He also reads Yanez's recent rough stretch as a possible confidence issue. “I'm going with Cody Garbrandt.” Hear it — 4:14 Michael Bisping on YouTube ↗ Michael Bisping’s track record → Track record: winner called in 19 of 33 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Chris Schweppe61 resolved calls Chris SchweppeView full track record Winner Accuracy 49.2% 30 31 Method Accuracy 53.3% 16 14 Round Accuracy 27.3% 6 16 Underdog Accuracy 21.4% 3 11 How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls	Historic market Favourite call, market price 77.5%. Yañez · KO/TKO · R1	Yañez · KO/TKO R1	Hit	Hit	Hit
Chris Schweppe's MMA Fight Picks UFC 329 preview picks Adrian Yanez by first-round knockout. Read source Chris Schweppe’s track record → Track record: winner called in 30 of 61 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

12 of 13 nailed it.

The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.

No AI predictions are available for this fight yet.

No market odds are available for this fight yet.

Videos

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Before the fight (2)

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