Pimblett vs Saint Denis — Lightweight · UFC 329

Scheduled · 11 Jul 2026
The Baddy
Paddy
Pimblett
23-4-0
VS
God of War
Benoît
Saint Denis
17-3-0
Lightweight
3 rounds
Co-Main Event
UFC 329 • 11 Jul 2026
Las Vegas, Nevada

Tale of the Tape

Pimblett vs Saint Denis
Pimblett Saint Denis
  1. OutputSig. strikes landed / min 5.49 5.62
  2. Striking def.Striking defense 43% 42%
  3. DurabilitySig. strikes absorbed / min 3.89 4.09
  4. Takedown def.Takedown defense 44% 72%
  5. FinishingFinish rate 74% 100%
23-4-0
Record
17-3-0
4-1 last 5
Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
4-1 last 5
31
Age
30
1.78 m
Height — Saint Denis leads
1.80 m
185 cm
Reach
185 cm
Orthodox
StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
Southpaw
74%
Finish rate — Saint Denis leadsFinish rateThe share of a fighter’s wins that ended inside the distance — by KO/TKO or submission — rather than going to the judges’ scorecards. Higher means more finishes.
100%
7
Wins by KO/TKO — Pimblett leads
6
10
Wins by submission — Saint Denis leads
11
5.49
Sig. strikes landed / minSignificant strikes landed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter lands for every minute of fight time — a read on striking output and pace. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
5.62
3.89
Sig. strikes absorbed / minSignificant strikes absorbed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter takes for every minute of fight time. Lower is better — it means they get hit less often. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
4.09
43%
Striking defenseStriking defenseThe percentage of opponents’ significant strikes that do not land — strikes slipped, blocked or evaded. Higher is better. Not the same as striking accuracy, which counts your own strikes that land. From UFC/FightMetric.
42%
44%
Takedown defense — Saint Denis leadsTakedown defenseThe percentage of opponents’ takedown attempts that are stuffed. Higher means harder to put on the mat. From UFC/FightMetric.
72%
10:56
Avg. fight timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
7:10
Lightweight
Weight class
Lightweight
England
Nationality
France
Next Generation MMA · Liverpool
Team
Venum Training Camp · Paris

Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Numbers reflect records coming into fight night. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.

How the Fight Plays Out

Case for Pimblett

Pimblett's case is volume, scrambles and durability in front of a crowd that lifts him. Ten of his 23 wins are submissions and the chin held up through 25 hard minutes with Gaethje, his only loss. If he can make this a long, scrappy fight rather than a firefight, his output and grappling chains give him the edge late.

Case for Saint Denis

Saint Denis doesn't do decisions — every one of his 17 wins is a finish, and the 2025–26 run added one-shot power to the relentless grappling that defined him. He arrives on a four-fight streak with a 16-second knockout of Dariush on the reel. Constant forward pressure and deep-water grappling are exactly the test Pimblett hasn't passed against a top finisher.

What to Watch

  • Can Pimblett's scrambles and guard survive Saint Denis's pressure and top control?
  • Saint Denis has never been to a decision — does Pimblett drag him into the championship-style deep water he thrives in?
  • Pimblett is coming off his first loss to Gaethje — rebound, or a sign the elite have his number?
  • Two submission-heavy grapplers: whoever wins the scramble exchanges likely wins the fight.

Pre-Fight Predictions

Independent picks — analysts, fighters and betting desks — for this fight, each traced to a timestamped source and checked before it goes live, are being verified and will appear here ahead of fight night.

Verified picks coming soon.

Odds

What the markets imply for this fight — percentages are a vig-stripped consensus across the sportsbooks, not a forecast or betting advice.

Sportsbook consensus · Who wins

39% Paddy Pimblett
61% Benoît Saint Denis

Favoured: Denis

Consensus of 3 books · steady since open

Per-book detail (3)
  • DraftKings39%
  • BetOnline.ag39%
  • FanDuel39%

Vig-stripped win probability for Pimblett at each book. The consensus is the median across books.

3 sportsbooks as of 17 Jun 16:47 UTC · Not betting advice · 18+ (21+ where required) · Gambling help (opens in new tab)

Fighters

Paddy Pimblett
23-4-0 · Lightweight · The Baddy
View profile →
Benoît Saint Denis
17-3-0 · Lightweight · God of War
View profile →

Independent fan-made fight preview. Not affiliated with, endorsed by, or sponsored by the UFC or any other MMA promotion. Analysis is editorial opinion, not betting advice. Fighter names and records are used for commentary.