UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 11 Jul 2026 · Las Vegas, Nevada, US

Paddy Pimblett defeats Benoît Saint Denis by Submission

Win The Baddy Paddy Pimblett View profile 24-4-0

Loss God of War Benoît Saint Denis View profile 17-4-0

Submission · Peruvian necktie

Round 1 · 0:52

At a glance

Analysts, AI and market side by side. Open a tab for the detail.

Analyst Picks16 analysts✓ Correct 63%10 picks 37%6 picks

Analyst picks AI forecasts Market odds

What happened

The result, the defining moments, and what the verdict means.

Pimblett rolled through Saint Denis' first takedown attempt and immediately hunted the front headlock.

He transitioned to a Peruvian necktie as Saint Denis tried to posture out.

Saint Denis lost consciousness in the hold; the technical submission was stopped at 0:52.

Secondary fallback play-by-play reportSherdog · UFC 329 play-by-play

Pre-fight analysis — how we saw it going in

Case for Pimblett

The main Paddy Pimblett question at UFC 329 is whether the Justin Gaethje loss exposed a ceiling or simply interrupted his climb. The best case for Pimblett is still the same one that built his run: high output, opportunistic submission chains and the willingness to keep scrambling until the other man accepts a messy fight. Ten of his 23 wins are by submission, and even in the Gaethje loss he proved he could survive hard damage and keep working for five rounds. If Pimblett can turn Saint Denis into a reactive wrestler instead of a front-foot finisher, this becomes the kind of long, ugly fight where his pace and scramble confidence matter most.

Case for Saint Denis

The Benoit Saint Denis case is more direct: force a real top-contender pace on Pimblett before Pimblett can settle into a rhythm. Saint Denis has 17 wins and all 17 are finishes, with the recent four-fight streak showing both sides of the threat: the 16-second knockout of Beneil Dariush and the familiar submission-pressure game that drowned Maurício Ruffy and Kyle Prepolec. This page should answer a simple search-intent question clearly: is Pimblett ready for a finisher who can wrestle and hurt him? Saint Denis is the sharper version of that test because he pressures early, accepts chaos and rarely lets opponents coast through neutral minutes.

What We Were Watching For

Pimblett's first few defensive scrambles if Saint Denis gets on top early; that is where the matchup shifts from theory to survival.
Whether Pimblett can make Saint Denis fight minute after minute instead of sequence to sequence; Saint Denis has never won by decision and usually prefers momentum over management.
How much the Gaethje loss changed Pimblett's risk appetite; a calmer version helps him here, a brawl-first version helps Saint Denis.
Which grappler wins the second exchange, not the first; both can attack in transitions, so the reset after a stuffed shot or half-finished takedown matters most.

Records & career stats

Pimblett vs Saint Denis

Pimblett Saint Denis

OutputSig. strikes landed / min 5.48 5.58
Striking def.Striking defense 43% 42%
DurabilitySig. strikes absorbed / min 3.86 4.09
Takedown def.Takedown defense 46% 72%
FinishingFinish rate 75% 100%

23-4-0
Record: 17-3-0; 4-1 last 5
Recent form: 4-1 last 5; England
Nationality: France; 31
Age: 30; 1.78 m
Height — Saint Denis leads: 1.80 m; 185 cm
Reach: 185 cm; Orthodox
Stance: Southpaw; 75%
Finish rateFinish % — Saint Denis leads: 100%; 7
Wins by KO/TKOKO wins — Pimblett leads: 6; 11
Wins by submissionSub wins: 11; 5.48
Sig. strikes landed / minStr / min: 5.58; 3.86
Sig. strikes absorbed / minAbs / min — Pimblett leads: 4.09; 43%
Striking defenseStrike def.: 42%; 46%
Takedown defenseTD def. — Saint Denis leads: 72%; 09:49
Avg. fight timeAvg. time: 06:41; Next Generation MMA · Liverpool
Team: Venum Training Camp · Paris

Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Numbers reflect the fighter data snapshot used for this page. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.

Who Called It?

How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.

(10) 63%

WPimblett

37% (6)

Saint DenisL

Analyst prediction scorecards

MMA Lock of the Night88 resolved calls MMA Lock of the NightView full track record Winner Accuracy 76.1% 67 21 Method Accuracy 51.9% 14 13 Round Accuracy 50.0% 2 2 Underdog Accuracy 50.0% 4 4 How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls	Historic market Underdog call, market price 46.5%. Pimblett · Dec	Pimblett · Sub R1	Hit	Miss	Not called
Picks Paddy Pimblett by decision. “Pimblett by decision after a competitive first round.” Hear it — 74:11 MMA Lock of the Night on YouTube ↗ MMA Lock of the Night’s track record → Track record: winner called in 67 of 88 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Bedtime MMA170 resolved calls Bedtime MMAView full track record Winner Accuracy 70.6% 120 50 Method Accuracy 63.6% 56 32 Round Accuracy 40.0% 10 15 Underdog Accuracy 48.5% 16 17 How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls	Historic market Underdog call, market price 46.5%. Pimblett · Sub	Pimblett · Sub R1	Hit	Hit	Not called
Picks Paddy Pimblett by submission while admitting Saint Denis' pressure and clinch work are dangerous early. His argument is that Saint Denis' takedown entries play into Pimblett's defensive grappling, reversals and submission threats, and that Pimblett can weather the early storm before finishing in a scramble. “I'm picking Paddy Pimblett by submission.” Hear it — 31:11 Bedtime MMA on YouTube ↗ Bedtime MMA’s track record → Track record: winner called in 120 of 170 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
TheWeasle163 resolved calls TheWeasleView full track record Winner Accuracy 70.6% 115 48 Method Accuracy 61.8% 47 29 Round Accuracy 36.5% 19 33 Underdog Accuracy 52.9% 9 8 How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls	Historic market Favourite call, market price 53.5%. Saint Denis · Dec	Pimblett · Sub R1	Miss	Not applicable — the winner call missed	Not applicable — the winner call missed
Frames Saint Denis as the fighter more likely to force the pressure and damage in a wild, size-for-size lightweight clash. He gives Pimblett the cardio edge and a possible late rally, but expects Saint Denis to win the first two rounds and take a decision. “I'm going with Benoit Saint Denis. Patty didn't have the power to earn Gachi's respect. So, I'm gonna go with Ben Saint Denis winning this fight by a decision.” Hear it — 30:14 TheWeasle on YouTube ↗ TheWeasle’s track record → Track record: winner called in 115 of 163 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Lucas Tracy53 resolved calls Lucas TracyView full track record Winner Accuracy 67.9% 36 17 Method Accuracy 62.5% 10 6 Round Accuracy 40.0% 2 3 Underdog Accuracy 38.5% 5 8 How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls	Historic market Favourite call, market price 53.5%. Saint Denis · KO/TKO	Pimblett · Sub R1	Miss	Not applicable — the winner call missed	Not applicable — the winner call missed
After weighing Pimblett's range work and submission danger, he lands on Saint Denis' clinch pace, judo, and finishing style. He expects the fight to stay in high-pressure exchanges and end with Saint Denis doing damage from the clinch. “I'm going to pick him to win this fight. I'm going to go with a finish.” Hear it — 45:00 Lucas Tracy on YouTube ↗ Lucas Tracy’s track record → Track record: winner called in 36 of 53 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
The MMA Guru296 resolved calls The MMA GuruView full track record Winner Accuracy 65.9% 195 101 Method Accuracy 52.9% 55 49 Round Accuracy 34.3% 12 23 Underdog Accuracy 45.5% 15 18 How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls	Historic market Underdog call, market price 46.5%. Pimblett · Sub · R2	Pimblett · Sub R1	Hit	Hit	Miss
Backs Pimblett despite acknowledging Saint Denis' pressure and early danger. His final read is that Pimblett hurts Saint Denis on the feet first, then uses the scramble or knockdown sequence to finish by second-round submission. “Submission second round after hurting him on the feet.” Hear it — 47:57 The MMA Guru on YouTube ↗ The MMA Guru’s track record → Track record: winner called in 195 of 296 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
DFS By The Numbers142 resolved calls DFS By The NumbersView full track record Winner Accuracy 65.5% 93 49 Method Accuracy 58.5% 48 34 Round Accuracy 35.9% 14 25 Underdog Accuracy 35.0% 7 13 How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls	Historic market Underdog call, market price 46.5%. Pimblett · Sub · R2	Pimblett · Sub R1	Hit	Hit	Miss
Backs Pimblett as the more durable and more opportunistic finisher in chaotic exchanges. He expects Saint Denis to leave necks or arms exposed while forcing grappling scrambles, giving Pimblett a second-round submission opening. “I'm going to go Paddy Pimblett. I think Paddy Pimblett actually has a couple ways to win this fight. But I'm going to take him to win this fight by submission.” Hear it — 37:39 DFS By The Numbers on YouTube ↗ DFS By The Numbers’s track record → Track record: winner called in 93 of 142 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
138 MMA39 resolved calls 138 MMAView full track record Winner Accuracy 64.1% 25 14 Method Accuracy 0.0% 1 Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round Underdog Accuracy 45.5% 5 6 How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls	Historic market Underdog call, market price 46.5%. Pimblett · to win	Pimblett · Sub R1	Hit	Not called	Not called
Transcript-verified winner pick from 138 MMA UFC 329 full-card prediction. “I'm going to take Patty Pembblelet to get this one done.” Hear it — 36:05 138 MMA on YouTube ↗ 138 MMA’s track record → Track record: winner called in 25 of 39 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
HopperMMA120 resolved calls HopperMMAView full track record Winner Accuracy 63.3% 76 44 Method Accuracy 64.6% 42 23 Round Accuracy 47.2% 17 19 Underdog Accuracy 26.3% 5 14 How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls	Historic market Favourite call, market price 53.5%. Saint Denis · Dec	Pimblett · Sub R1	Miss	Not applicable — the winner call missed	Not applicable — the winner call missed
Calls it a close, low-confidence fight but picks Benoit Saint Denis for having more ways to win. He expects Saint Denis to punish Paddy Pimblett's striking defense, mix in his own grappling and do enough across three rounds. “I'm going to go with Ben Saint to win this one” Hear it — 25:44 HopperMMA on YouTube ↗ HopperMMA’s track record → Track record: winner called in 76 of 120 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Michael Iannone21 resolved calls Michael IannoneView full track record Winner Accuracy 61.9% 13 8 Method Accuracy 50.0% 4 4 Round Accuracy 0.0% 2 Underdog Accuracy 50.0% 2 2 How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls	Historic market Underdog call, market price 46.5%. Pimblett · to win	Pimblett · Sub R1	Hit	Not called	Not called
Michael Iannone's FantasyAlarm UFC 329 preview picks Paddy Pimblett to win the matchup. Read source Michael Iannone’s track record → Track record: winner called in 13 of 21 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
BetSam26 resolved calls BetSamView full track record Winner Accuracy 61.5% 16 10 Method Accuracy 40.0% 4 6 Round Accuracy 50.0% 1 1 Underdog Accuracy 25.0% 1 3 How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls	Historic market Underdog call, market price 46.5%. Pimblett · Sub	Pimblett · Sub R1	Hit	Hit	Not called
Transcript-verified winner pick from BetSam UFC 329 full-card prediction. “Pick Paddy Pimblett to win this fight via submission.” Hear it — 29:46 BetSam on YouTube ↗ BetSam’s track record → Track record: winner called in 16 of 26 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Leftlane MMA18 resolved calls Leftlane MMAView full track record Winner Accuracy 61.1% 11 7 Method Accuracy 75.0% 3 1 Round Accuracy 0.0% 1 Underdog Accuracy 50.0% 1 1 How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls	Historic market Favourite call, market price 53.5%. Saint Denis · to win	Pimblett · Sub R1	Miss	Not applicable — the winner call missed	Not applicable — the winner call missed
Leftlane MMA retains the initial Saint Denis call after discussing the matchup. “I'm going to say BSD wins.” Hear it — 15:52 Leftlane MMA on YouTube ↗ Leftlane MMA’s track record → Track record: winner called in 11 of 18 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Pure Picks29 resolved calls Pure PicksView full track record Winner Accuracy 58.6% 17 12 Method Accuracy 58.3% 7 5 Round Accuracy 0.0% 1 Underdog Accuracy 37.5% 3 5 How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls	Historic market Underdog call, market price 46.5%. Pimblett · Sub	Pimblett · Sub R1	Hit	Hit	Not called
Picks Paddy Pimblett by submission despite explicitly noting low confidence. “Not too confident, but I’ll go Patty Pimpblelet by submission.” Hear it — 18:25 Pure Picks on YouTube ↗ Pure Picks’s track record → Track record: winner called in 17 of 29 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Aniki MMA19 resolved calls Aniki MMAView full track record Winner Accuracy 57.9% 11 8 Method Accuracy 77.8% 7 2 Round Accuracy 71.4% 5 2 Underdog Accuracy 0.0% 3 How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls	Historic market Favourite call, market price 53.5%. Saint Denis · Dec	Pimblett · Sub R1	Miss	Not applicable — the winner call missed	Not applicable — the winner call missed
Aniki MMA picks the stated winner. “Benoît Saint Denis to win this fight via decision.” Hear it — 36:44 Aniki MMA on YouTube ↗ Aniki MMA’s track record → Track record: winner called in 11 of 19 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Andrew Richardson52 resolved calls Andrew RichardsonView full track record Winner Accuracy 57.7% 30 22 Method Accuracy 70.0% 21 9 Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round Underdog Accuracy 0.0% 5 How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls	Historic market Favourite call, market price 53.5%. Saint Denis · Dec	Pimblett · Sub R1	Miss	Not applicable — the winner call missed	Not applicable — the winner call missed
MMA Mania's UFC 329 preview has Andrew Richardson picking Benoit Saint-Denis by decision over Paddy Pimblett. Read source Andrew Richardson’s track record → Track record: winner called in 30 of 52 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Chris Schweppe61 resolved calls Chris SchweppeView full track record Winner Accuracy 49.2% 30 31 Method Accuracy 53.3% 16 14 Round Accuracy 27.3% 6 16 Underdog Accuracy 21.4% 3 11 How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls	Historic market Underdog call, market price 46.5%. Pimblett · KO/TKO · R2	Pimblett · Sub R1	Hit	Miss	Miss
Chris Schweppe's MMA Fight Picks UFC 329 preview picks Paddy Pimblett by second-round knockout. Read source Chris Schweppe’s track record → Track record: winner called in 30 of 61 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Jesse Holland53 resolved calls Jesse HollandView full track record Winner Accuracy 49.1% 26 27 Method Accuracy 57.7% 15 11 Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round Underdog Accuracy 27.8% 5 13 How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls	Historic market Underdog call, market price 46.5%. Pimblett · KO/TKO	Pimblett · Sub R1	Hit	Miss	Not called
MMA Mania's UFC 329 preview has Jesse Holland picking Paddy Pimblett by technical knockout. Read source Jesse Holland’s track record → Track record: winner called in 26 of 53 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

10 of 16 called the winner.

The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.

No AI predictions are available for this fight yet.

No market odds are available for this fight yet.

Videos

Outcome footage, post-fight coverage, and the pre-fight lead-up.

Before the fight (3)

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