UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 11 Jul 2026 · Las Vegas, Nevada, US

Brandon Royval defeats Lone'er Kavanagh by Submission

Win Raw Dawg Brandon Royval View profile 18-9-0

Loss Lone'er Kavanagh View profile 10-2-0

Submission · rear-naked choke

Round 3 · 3:40

At a glance

Analysts, AI and market side by side. Open a tab for the detail.

Analyst Picks15 analysts✗ Incorrect 7%1 pick 93%14 picks

Analyst picks AI forecasts Market odds

What happened

The result, the defining moments, and what the verdict means.

Royval controlled the opening round.

Kavanagh dropped and hurt Royval in round two to swing the fight.

Royval hurt Kavanagh in the third, took the back and locked up a rear-naked choke at 3:40.

Secondary fallback play-by-play reportSherdog · UFC 329 play-by-play

Pre-fight analysis — how we saw it going in

Case for Royval

Royval is the most chaotic action fighter at 125 and a two-time title-adjacent name — high volume, relentless scrambles and finish-heavy grappling (nine submissions). He has shared the cage with Pantoja, Moreno and Taira; the experience gap is large. If he turns this into a frantic, high-pace scramble, few can match him.

Case for Kavanagh

Kavanagh is the surging technician — crisp boxing, elite takedown defence (94%) and a star-making win over Brandon Moreno that vaulted him up the rankings. He is younger, sharper defensively and trending up, where Royval enters on a two-fight skid that includes a first-round knockout. Discipline against chaos is the matchup.

What We Were Watching For

Royval's all-action chaos against Kavanagh's disciplined, technical boxing.
Royval's leaky defence (43% striking, 45% takedown) is the opening — can Kavanagh exploit it cleanly?
Kavanagh's per-minute numbers rest on a small UFC sample — how does he handle Royval's pace over 15 minutes?
Royval has been finished recently (Kape KO); does Kavanagh have the power to test that chin, or must he out-point him?

Records & career stats

Royval vs Kavanagh

Royval Kavanagh

OutputSig. strikes landed / min 5.60 4.13
Striking def.Striking defense 43% 54%
DurabilitySig. strikes absorbed / min 4.24 3.94
Takedown def.Takedown defense 45% 83%
FinishingFinish rate 78% 50%

17-9-0
Record: 10-1-0; 2-3 last 5
Recent form: 4-1 last 5; United States
Nationality: England; 33
Age: 27; 1.75 m
Height — Royval leads: 1.68 m; 173 cm
Reach — Royval leads: 170 cm; Southpaw
Stance: Orthodox; 78%
Finish rateFinish % — Royval leads: 50%; 4
Wins by KO/TKOKO wins: 4; 10
Wins by submissionSub wins — Royval leads: 1; 5.60
Sig. strikes landed / minStr / min — Royval leads: 4.13; 4.24
Sig. strikes absorbed / minAbs / min — Kavanagh leads: 3.94; 43%
Striking defenseStrike def. — Kavanagh leads: 54%; 45%
Takedown defenseTD def. — Kavanagh leads: 83%; 11:42
Avg. fight timeAvg. time: 13:27; Factory X Muay Thai · Colorado
Team: Great Britain Top Team · London

Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Numbers reflect the fighter data snapshot used for this page. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.

Who Called It?

How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.

(1) 7%

WRoyval

93% (14)

KavanaghL

Analyst prediction scorecards

Bedtime MMA170 resolved calls Bedtime MMAView full track record Winner Accuracy 70.6% 120 50 Method Accuracy 63.6% 56 32 Round Accuracy 40.0% 10 15 Underdog Accuracy 48.5% 16 17 How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls	Historic market Favourite call, market price 68.5%. Kavanagh · Dec	Royval · Sub R3	Miss	Not applicable — the winner call missed	Not applicable — the winner call missed
Thinks Kavanagh's kickboxing and chin are genuine problems for a Royval who's coming off back-to-back losses. Believes Kavanagh can keep it standing, weather Royval's chaos, and grind out a decision — though acknowledges Royval's submission game makes it competitive. “I'm probably going to go with Kavanagh by decision.” Hear it — 17:44 Bedtime MMA on YouTube ↗ Bedtime MMA’s track record → Track record: winner called in 120 of 170 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
TheWeasle163 resolved calls TheWeasleView full track record Winner Accuracy 70.6% 115 48 Method Accuracy 61.8% 47 29 Round Accuracy 36.5% 19 33 Underdog Accuracy 52.9% 9 8 How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls	Historic market Favourite call, market price 68.5%. Kavanagh · KO/TKO · R3	Royval · Sub R3	Miss	Not applicable — the winner call missed	Not applicable — the winner call missed
Rates Kavanagh as a future champion-level talent and thinks his speed, kicks and punching entries will make Royval miss too often. He expects Kavanagh to pick Royval apart and eventually knock him out in the third round. “I think Kavanagh is going to knock Royval out in the third round. Too many one-twos connecting throughout this fight for Kavanagh not to knock him out.” Hear it — 22:55 TheWeasle on YouTube ↗ TheWeasle’s track record → Track record: winner called in 115 of 163 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
DFS By The Numbers142 resolved calls DFS By The NumbersView full track record Winner Accuracy 65.5% 93 49 Method Accuracy 58.5% 48 34 Round Accuracy 35.9% 14 25 Underdog Accuracy 35.0% 7 13 How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls	Historic market Favourite call, market price 68.5%. Kavanagh · KO/TKO · R2	Royval · Sub R3	Miss	Not applicable — the winner call missed	Not applicable — the winner call missed
Trusts Kavanagh's boxing and power against Royval's hittable style. He thinks Royval's chin will be there to touch repeatedly, giving Kavanagh enough opportunities to land the finishing shot. “I'm going Lonnie Kavanagh to win. I'm going to take Lonnie Kavanagh to win this fight by second round knockout.” Hear it — 30:45 DFS By The Numbers on YouTube ↗ DFS By The Numbers’s track record → Track record: winner called in 93 of 142 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
We Want Picks145 resolved calls We Want PicksView full track record Winner Accuracy 64.1% 93 52 Method Accuracy 40.0% 2 3 Round AccuracyNamed rounds — none on a correct call yet Underdog Accuracy 34.5% 10 19 How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls	Historic market Favourite call, market price 68.5%. Kavanagh · to win	Royval · Sub R3	Miss	Not applicable — the winner call missed	Not applicable — the winner call missed
They pick Lone'er Kavanagh for his speed, clean technical striking and cardio, while noting Brandon Royval's experience and chaos make it dangerous. The argument is that Kavanagh can keep the pace and avoid being dragged into Royval's weird submission-heavy fight. “Looney Kavanaaugh is a very fast, clean striker. And Looney Kavanaaugh is very technical, so he should win this fight” Hear it — 118:34 We Want Picks on YouTube ↗ We Want Picks’s track record → Track record: winner called in 93 of 145 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
138 MMA39 resolved calls 138 MMAView full track record Winner Accuracy 64.1% 25 14 Method Accuracy 0.0% 1 Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round Underdog Accuracy 45.5% 5 6 How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls	Historic market Favourite call, market price 68.5%. Kavanagh · to win	Royval · Sub R3	Miss	Not applicable — the winner call missed	Not applicable — the winner call missed
Transcript-verified winner pick from 138 MMA UFC 329 full-card prediction. “So I'm going to take Kavanaaugh here, but I don't feel good about it.” Hear it — 29:18 138 MMA on YouTube ↗ 138 MMA’s track record → Track record: winner called in 25 of 39 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
HopperMMA120 resolved calls HopperMMAView full track record Winner Accuracy 63.3% 76 44 Method Accuracy 64.6% 42 23 Round Accuracy 47.2% 17 19 Underdog Accuracy 26.3% 5 14 How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls	Historic market Favourite call, market price 68.5%. Kavanagh · Dec	Royval · Sub R3	Miss	Not applicable — the winner call missed	Not applicable — the winner call missed
Sides with Lone'er Kavanagh's speed, kicking game and technical striking in a striker-friendly matchup. He respects Brandon Royval's elite experience and volume, but thinks Kavanagh is the smoother fighter over three rounds. “I'm going to go with Lonnie Kavanaaugh to win this one by decision.” Hear it — 18:30 HopperMMA on YouTube ↗ HopperMMA’s track record → Track record: winner called in 76 of 120 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
BetSam26 resolved calls BetSamView full track record Winner Accuracy 61.5% 16 10 Method Accuracy 40.0% 4 6 Round Accuracy 50.0% 1 1 Underdog Accuracy 25.0% 1 3 How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls	Historic market Favourite call, market price 68.5%. Kavanagh · to win	Royval · Sub R3	Miss	Not applicable — the winner call missed	Not applicable — the winner call missed
Transcript-verified winner pick from BetSam UFC 329 full-card prediction. “Give me Loneer Kavanagh to go out here and knock out Brandon Royval.” Hear it — 25:14 BetSam on YouTube ↗ BetSam’s track record → Track record: winner called in 16 of 26 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Pure Picks29 resolved calls Pure PicksView full track record Winner Accuracy 58.6% 17 12 Method Accuracy 58.3% 7 5 Round Accuracy 0.0% 1 Underdog Accuracy 37.5% 3 5 How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls	Historic market Favourite call, market price 68.5%. Kavanagh · KO/TKO	Royval · Sub R3	Miss	Not applicable — the winner call missed	Not applicable — the winner call missed
Picks Lone’er Kavanagh by KO; the source gives round two or three, so the round is left unset. “I'm gonna say Loner Kavanaaugh TKO.” Hear it — 14:27 Pure Picks on YouTube ↗ Pure Picks’s track record → Track record: winner called in 17 of 29 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Aniki MMA19 resolved calls Aniki MMAView full track record Winner Accuracy 57.9% 11 8 Method Accuracy 77.8% 7 2 Round Accuracy 71.4% 5 2 Underdog Accuracy 0.0% 3 How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls	Historic market Favourite call, market price 68.5%. Kavanagh · to win	Royval · Sub R3	Miss	Not applicable — the winner call missed	Not applicable — the winner call missed
Aniki MMA picks the stated winner. “Kavanagh to win by a very clear and comfortable 3027 decision.” Hear it — 29:14 Aniki MMA on YouTube ↗ Aniki MMA’s track record → Track record: winner called in 11 of 19 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Andrew Richardson52 resolved calls Andrew RichardsonView full track record Winner Accuracy 57.7% 30 22 Method Accuracy 70.0% 21 9 Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round Underdog Accuracy 0.0% 5 How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls	Historic market Favourite call, market price 68.5%. Kavanagh · Dec	Royval · Sub R3	Miss	Not applicable — the winner call missed	Not applicable — the winner call missed
MMA Mania's UFC 329 preview has Andrew Richardson picking Lone'er Kavanagh by decision over Brandon Royval. Read source Andrew Richardson’s track record → Track record: winner called in 30 of 52 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Michael Bisping33 resolved calls Michael BispingView full track record Winner Accuracy 57.6% 19 14 Method Accuracy 40.0% 2 3 Round AccuracyNamed rounds — none on a correct call yet Underdog Accuracy 20.0% 1 4 How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls	Historic market Favourite call, market price 68.5%. Kavanagh · Dec	Royval · Sub R3	Miss	Not applicable — the winner call missed	Not applicable — the winner call missed
Backs Kavanagh's speed, hand speed and kick entries as special enough to beat an experienced contender. He respects Royval's toughness and warns Kavanagh must keep his hands up, but still sees the promoted prospect winning on points. “Lone'er Kavanagh gets the job done via decision.” Hear it — 13:01 Michael Bisping on YouTube ↗ Michael Bisping’s track record → Track record: winner called in 19 of 33 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Mike Finch27 resolved calls Mike FinchView full track record Winner Accuracy 55.6% 15 12 Method Accuracy 66.7% 6 3 Round Accuracy 0.0% 2 Underdog Accuracy 33.3% 2 4 How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls	Historic market Favourite call, market price 68.5%. Kavanagh · Dec	Royval · Sub R3	Miss	Not applicable — the winner call missed	Not applicable — the winner call missed
Trusts Kavanagh's cardio, energy management and cleaner striking after the Moreno fight. He thinks Royval is durable enough to avoid the finish, but not sharp enough to win the minutes. “Nah, bro. Nah, I got Kavanaaugh decision.” Hear it — 71:06 Mike Finch on YouTube ↗ Mike Finch’s track record → Track record: winner called in 15 of 27 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Demetrious Johnson11 resolved calls Demetrious JohnsonView full track record Winner Accuracy 54.5% 6 5 Method AccuracyCalls the winner, not the method Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round Underdog Accuracy 50.0% 1 1 How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls	Historic market Favourite call, market price 68.5%. Kavanagh · to win	Royval · Sub R3	Miss	Not applicable — the winner call missed	Not applicable — the winner call missed
Picks Kavanagh after weighing Royval's pressure and scramble chaos. He has trained with Kavanagh, likes the striking movement he saw in the gym, and thinks the young flyweight's rebound from the Charles Johnson loss points toward another step forward. “I'm going to go with Lone Kavanagh.” Hear it — 11:30 Demetrious Johnson on YouTube ↗ Demetrious Johnson’s track record → Track record: winner called in 6 of 11 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Chris Schweppe61 resolved calls Chris SchweppeView full track record Winner Accuracy 49.2% 30 31 Method Accuracy 53.3% 16 14 Round Accuracy 27.3% 6 16 Underdog Accuracy 21.4% 3 11 How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls	Historic market Underdog call, market price 31.5%. Royval · Dec	Royval · Sub R3	Hit	Miss	Not called
Chris Schweppe's MMA Fight Picks UFC 329 preview picks Brandon Royval by decision. Read source Chris Schweppe’s track record → Track record: winner called in 30 of 61 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Jesse Holland53 resolved calls Jesse HollandView full track record Winner Accuracy 49.1% 26 27 Method Accuracy 57.7% 15 11 Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round Underdog Accuracy 27.8% 5 13 How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls	Historic market Favourite call, market price 68.5%. Kavanagh · Dec	Royval · Sub R3	Miss	Not applicable — the winner call missed	Not applicable — the winner call missed
MMA Mania's UFC 329 preview has Jesse Holland picking Lone'er Kavanagh by decision. Read source Jesse Holland’s track record → Track record: winner called in 26 of 53 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Only 1 of 15 called the upset.

The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.

No AI predictions are available for this fight yet.

No market odds are available for this fight yet.

Videos

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Before the fight (2)

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