Royval vs Kavanagh — Flyweight · UFC 329

Scheduled · 11 Jul 2026
Raw Dawg
Brandon
Royval
17-9-0
VS
Lone'er
Kavanagh
10-1-0
Flyweight
3 rounds
Main Card
UFC 329 • 11 Jul 2026
Las Vegas, Nevada

Tale of the Tape

Royval vs Kavanagh
Royval Kavanagh
  1. OutputSig. strikes landed / min 5.54 4.13
  2. Striking def.Striking defense 43% 57%
  3. DurabilitySig. strikes absorbed / min 4.25 3.49
  4. Takedown def.Takedown defense 45% 94%
  5. FinishingFinish rate 76% 50%
17-9-0
Record
10-1-0
2-3 last 5
Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
4-1 last 5
33
Age
27
1.75 m
Height — Royval leads
1.68 m
173 cm
Reach — Royval leads
170 cm
Southpaw
StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
Orthodox
76%
Finish rate — Royval leadsFinish rateThe share of a fighter’s wins that ended inside the distance — by KO/TKO or submission — rather than going to the judges’ scorecards. Higher means more finishes.
50%
4
Wins by KO/TKO
4
9
Wins by submission — Royval leads
1
5.54
Sig. strikes landed / min — Royval leadsSignificant strikes landed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter lands for every minute of fight time — a read on striking output and pace. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
4.13
4.25
Sig. strikes absorbed / min — Kavanagh leadsSignificant strikes absorbed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter takes for every minute of fight time. Lower is better — it means they get hit less often. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
3.49
43%
Striking defense — Kavanagh leadsStriking defenseThe percentage of opponents’ significant strikes that do not land — strikes slipped, blocked or evaded. Higher is better. Not the same as striking accuracy, which counts your own strikes that land. From UFC/FightMetric.
57%
45%
Takedown defense — Kavanagh leadsTakedown defenseThe percentage of opponents’ takedown attempts that are stuffed. Higher means harder to put on the mat. From UFC/FightMetric.
94%
11:33
Avg. fight timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
13:24
Flyweight
Weight class
Flyweight
United States
Nationality
England
Factory X Muay Thai · Colorado
Team
Great Britain Top Team · London

Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Numbers reflect records coming into fight night. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.

How the Fight Plays Out

Case for Royval

Royval is the most chaotic action fighter at 125 and a two-time title-adjacent name — high volume, relentless scrambles and finish-heavy grappling (nine submissions). He has shared the cage with Pantoja, Moreno and Taira; the experience gap is large. If he turns this into a frantic, high-pace scramble, few can match him.

Case for Kavanagh

Kavanagh is the surging technician — crisp boxing, elite takedown defence (94%) and a star-making win over Brandon Moreno that vaulted him up the rankings. He is younger, sharper defensively and trending up, where Royval enters on a two-fight skid that includes a first-round knockout. Discipline against chaos is the matchup.

What to Watch

  • Royval's all-action chaos against Kavanagh's disciplined, technical boxing.
  • Royval's leaky defence (43% striking, 45% takedown) is the opening — can Kavanagh exploit it cleanly?
  • Kavanagh's per-minute numbers rest on a small UFC sample — how does he handle Royval's pace over 15 minutes?
  • Royval has been finished recently (Kape KO); does Kavanagh have the power to test that chin, or must he out-point him?

Pre-Fight Predictions

Independent picks — analysts, fighters and betting desks — for this fight, each traced to a timestamped source and checked before it goes live, are being verified and will appear here ahead of fight night.

Verified picks coming soon.

Odds

What the markets imply for this fight — percentages are a vig-stripped consensus across the sportsbooks, not a forecast or betting advice.

Sportsbook consensus · Who wins

36% Brandon Royval
64% Lone'er Kavanagh

Favoured: Kavanagh

Consensus of 3 books · range 36–39% · steady since open

Per-book detail (3)
  • BetOnline.ag36%
  • DraftKings36%
  • FanDuel39%

Vig-stripped win probability for Royval at each book. The consensus is the median across books.

3 sportsbooks as of 17 Jun 16:47 UTC · Not betting advice · 18+ (21+ where required) · Gambling help (opens in new tab)

Fighters

Brandon Royval
17-9-0 · Flyweight · Raw Dawg
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Lone'er Kavanagh
10-1-0 · Flyweight
View profile →

Independent fan-made fight preview. Not affiliated with, endorsed by, or sponsored by the UFC or any other MMA promotion. Analysis is editorial opinion, not betting advice. Fighter names and records are used for commentary.