UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2
Mario Bautista defeats Cory Sandhagen by unanimous decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Sandhagen vs Bautista — Bantamweight · UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2
At a glance
Analysts, AI and market side by side. Open a tab for the detail.
What happened
The result, the defining moments, and what the verdict means.
Bautista targeted Sandhagen's lead leg and drove the fight into takedowns.
Sandhagen stayed competitive with straight punching in the striking exchanges.
Bautista's takedowns carried the unanimous decision.
- Secondary fallback play-by-play reportSherdog · UFC 329 play-by-play
Pre-fight analysis — how we saw it going in
Case for Sandhagen
Sandhagen is the more proven and more creative striker — rangy switch-stance kickboxing, a flying-knee highlight reel and two title-fight experiences. He out-classes most of the division on the feet and already owns a win over Bautista, a first-round submission in 2019. Class and length are on his side.
Case for Bautista
Bautista is the live underdog on a long win streak, with the grappling and pace to grind even elite names — he out-worked José Aldo and submitted Vinicius Oliveira in his first headliner. Seven years on from that debut loss, he is a far more complete fighter and will look to turn this into the wrestling-heavy scrap that has carried his cards.
What We Were Watching For
- Can Bautista close the distance and wrestle, or does Sandhagen's length keep it a kickboxing match?
- Does the 2019 first-round submission still mean anything seven years and two very different careers later?
- Sandhagen's takedown defence (56%) against Bautista's grinding top game.
- Both are coming off grappling-heavy decision losses to Umar Nurmagomedov — who adjusts better?
Records & career stats
- 4.92 5.52
- 55% 54%
- 3.72 4.17
- 57% 57%
- 61% 56%
- 18-6-0
- Record
- 17-3-0
- 3-2 last 5
- Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
- 4-1 last 5
- United States
- Nationality
- United States
- 34
- Age
- 32
- Switch
- StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
- Switch
- 14:44
- Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
- 10:26
- High Altitude Martial Arts · Aurora
- Team
- The MMA Lab · Arizona
Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Numbers reflect the fighter data snapshot used for this page. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.
Who Called It?
How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.
- Winner Accuracy 70.6% 115 48
- Method Accuracy 61.8% 47 29
- Round Accuracy 36.5% 19 33
- Underdog Accuracy 52.9% 9 8
How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls
- Winner Accuracy 64.1% 25 14
- Method Accuracy 0.0% 1
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 45.5% 5 6
How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls
- Winner Accuracy 61.5% 16 10
- Method Accuracy 40.0% 4 6
- Round Accuracy 50.0% 1 1
- Underdog Accuracy 25.0% 1 3
How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls
- Winner Accuracy 61.1% 11 7
- Method Accuracy 75.0% 3 1
- Round Accuracy 0.0% 1
- Underdog Accuracy 50.0% 1 1
How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls
- Winner Accuracy 57.9% 11 8
- Method Accuracy 77.8% 7 2
- Round Accuracy 71.4% 5 2
- Underdog Accuracy 0.0% 3
How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls
- Winner Accuracy 57.7% 30 22
- Method Accuracy 70.0% 21 9
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 0.0% 5
How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls
- Winner Accuracy 57.6% 19 14
- Method Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
- Round AccuracyNamed rounds — none on a correct call yet
- Underdog Accuracy 20.0% 1 4
How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls
- Winner Accuracy 54.5% 6 5
- Method AccuracyCalls the winner, not the method
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 50.0% 1 1
How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls
- Winner Accuracy 49.2% 30 31
- Method Accuracy 53.3% 16 14
- Round Accuracy 27.3% 6 16
- Underdog Accuracy 21.4% 3 11
How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls
- Winner Accuracy 49.1% 26 27
- Method Accuracy 57.7% 15 11
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 27.8% 5 13
How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls
- Winner Accuracy 76.1% 67 21
- Method Accuracy 51.9% 14 13
- Round Accuracy 50.0% 2 2
- Underdog Accuracy 50.0% 4 4
How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls
- Winner Accuracy 70.6% 120 50
- Method Accuracy 63.6% 56 32
- Round Accuracy 40.0% 10 15
- Underdog Accuracy 48.5% 16 17
How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls
- Winner Accuracy 65.9% 195 101
- Method Accuracy 52.9% 55 49
- Round Accuracy 34.3% 12 23
- Underdog Accuracy 45.5% 15 18
How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls
- Winner Accuracy 65.5% 93 49
- Method Accuracy 58.5% 48 34
- Round Accuracy 35.9% 14 25
- Underdog Accuracy 35.0% 7 13
How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls
- Winner Accuracy 63.3% 76 44
- Method Accuracy 64.6% 42 23
- Round Accuracy 47.2% 17 19
- Underdog Accuracy 26.3% 5 14
How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls
- Winner Accuracy 60.9% 53 34
- Method Accuracy 71.4% 10 4
- Round Accuracy 0.0% 1
- Underdog Accuracy 29.4% 5 12
How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls
- Winner Accuracy 58.6% 17 12
- Method Accuracy 58.3% 7 5
- Round Accuracy 0.0% 1
- Underdog Accuracy 37.5% 3 5
How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls
Analyst picks: MMA Lock of the Night Hit; Bedtime MMA Hit; TheWeasle Miss; The MMA Guru Hit; DFS By The Numbers Hit; 138 MMA Miss; HopperMMA Hit; BetSam Miss; Leftlane MMA Miss; Half The Battle Hit; Pure Picks Hit; Aniki MMA Miss; Andrew Richardson Miss; Michael Bisping Miss; Demetrious Johnson Miss; Chris Schweppe Miss; Jesse Holland Miss.
| Expand row | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MMA Lock of the Night
MMA Lock of the NightView full track record
How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls | Historic market Underdog call, market price 42.5%. Bautista · Dec | Bautista · Dec R3 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
| Picks Mario Bautista by decision. “I’m going to go Bautista by decision.” Track record: winner called in 67 of 88 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
Bedtime MMA
Bedtime MMAView full track record
How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls | Historic market Underdog call, market price 42.5%. Bautista · Dec | Bautista · Dec R3 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
| Gun to his head, sides with Bautista over Sandhagen. Bautista has improved significantly since their 2019 first meeting and his grappling and footwork evolution make him the more dangerous fighter now. Picks Bautista to outwork Sandhagen over three rounds and announce his title run. “I'm going to go with Mario Bautista to win this one by decision.” Track record: winner called in 120 of 170 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
TheWeasle
TheWeasleView full track record
How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls | Historic market Favourite call, market price 57.5%. Sandhagen · Dec | Bautista · Dec R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
| Sees a high-level rematch where Bautista will land and test whether Sandhagen's chin has slipped, but still trusts Sandhagen's range tools. He expects Sandhagen's long-range work and jab to edge a 29-28 unanimous decision. “I ultimately think Cory Sandhagen's range work is going to win in this fight on a decision. So, I'm going to go with Cory Sandhagen winning a 29-28 unanimous decision.” Track record: winner called in 115 of 163 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
The MMA Guru
The MMA GuruView full track record
How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls | Historic market Underdog call, market price 42.5%. Bautista · Dec | Bautista · Dec R3 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
| Thinks Bautista's physicality, cage pressure and wrestling optics are enough to win close rounds. He expects Sandhagen to be dangerous and creative, but not damaging enough to clearly outweigh Bautista's control and aggression on the judges' cards. “I think this is too much to overcome.” Track record: winner called in 195 of 296 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
DFS By The Numbers
DFS By The NumbersView full track record
How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls | Historic market Underdog call, market price 42.5%. Bautista · Dec | Bautista · Dec R3 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
| Calls it extremely close but sides with Bautista's wrestling, grappling and takedown threat. He likes Sandhagen's striking, yet thinks Bautista can bank enough control and blunt enough output to edge the cards. “I'm going to take Mario Bautista to win like a split decision.” Track record: winner called in 93 of 142 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
138 MMA
138 MMAView full track record
How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls | Historic market Favourite call, market price 57.5%. Sandhagen · to win | Bautista · Dec R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
| Transcript-verified winner pick from 138 MMA UFC 329 full-card prediction. “I've got to take Sanhagen here.” Track record: winner called in 25 of 39 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
HopperMMA
HopperMMAView full track record
How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls | Historic market Underdog call, market price 42.5%. Bautista · Dec | Bautista · Dec R3 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
| Takes Mario Bautista as an underdog because he can threaten Cory Sandhagen in both striking and grappling phases. He thinks Sandhagen's elite schedule matters, but Bautista's all-around pressure gives Sandhagen more to solve than a one-discipline matchup. “going to go with Mario Batista to beat Cory Sanding” Track record: winner called in 76 of 120 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
BetSam
BetSamView full track record
How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls | Historic market Favourite call, market price 57.5%. Sandhagen · to win | Bautista · Dec R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
| Transcript-verified winner pick from BetSam UFC 329 full-card prediction. “Give me Cory Sandhagen by decision.” Track record: winner called in 16 of 26 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
Leftlane MMA
Leftlane MMAView full track record
How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls | Historic market Favourite call, market price 57.5%. Sandhagen · Dec | Bautista · Dec R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
| Leftlane MMA picks Cory Sandhagen to beat Mario Bautista by decision. “pretty cleanly beats Bautista by decision.” Track record: winner called in 11 of 18 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
Half The Battle
Half The BattleView full track record
How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls | Historic market Underdog call, market price 42.5%. Bautista · Dec | Bautista · Dec R3 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
| Picks Mario Bautista to upset Cory Sandhagen in a close rematch. He expects a one-round-apiece type fight decided by a single takedown, strike or late moment, and favors Bautista's current form and hunger coming off his career-best win. “that's my prediction before the fact. I could see it going either way, but I'm going to pick Mario Bautista to come out here and upset Cory Sanhagen and win the rematch.” * Projects a close, split-decision-style fight. Track record: winner called in 53 of 87 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
Pure Picks
Pure PicksView full track record
How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls | Historic market Underdog call, market price 42.5%. Bautista · Dec | Bautista · Dec R3 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
| Picks Mario Bautista by decision. “I'm going to go with Mario Batista by decision.” Track record: winner called in 17 of 29 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
Aniki MMA
Aniki MMAView full track record
How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls | Historic market Favourite call, market price 57.5%. Sandhagen · to win | Bautista · Dec R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
| Aniki MMA picks the stated winner. “Give me Cory Sandhagen by 2928 split decision.” Track record: winner called in 11 of 19 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
Andrew Richardson
Andrew RichardsonView full track record
How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls | Historic market Favourite call, market price 57.5%. Sandhagen · Dec | Bautista · Dec R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
| MMA Mania's UFC 329 preview has Andrew Richardson picking Cory Sandhagen by decision over Mario Bautista. Track record: winner called in 30 of 52 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
Michael Bisping
Michael BispingView full track record
How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls | Historic market Favourite call, market price 57.5%. Sandhagen · Dec | Bautista · Dec R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
| Calls it a tough matchup, but sides with Sandhagen's reach, range, footwork and fight IQ. He thinks Bautista is underappreciated and well-rounded, yet expects Sandhagen to solve enough of the puzzle to win a decision. “I'm going with Cory Sandhagen for a decision victory.” Track record: winner called in 19 of 33 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
Demetrious Johnson
Demetrious JohnsonView full track record
How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls | Historic market Favourite call, market price 57.5%. Sandhagen · to win | Bautista · Dec R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
| Calls the rematch close and gives Bautista real credit, but sides with Sandhagen's well-roundedness and elite schedule. He frames it as a near coin flip before choosing Sandhagen as the fighter who has fought and understood the highest-level problems. “I'm going to have to go with Cory Sanhagen.” Track record: winner called in 6 of 11 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
Chris Schweppe
Chris SchweppeView full track record
How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls | Historic market Favourite call, market price 57.5%. Sandhagen · Dec | Bautista · Dec R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
| Chris Schweppe's MMA Fight Picks UFC 329 preview picks Cory Sandhagen by decision. Track record: winner called in 30 of 61 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
Jesse Holland
Jesse HollandView full track record
How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls | Historic market Favourite call, market price 57.5%. Sandhagen · Dec | Bautista · Dec R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
| MMA Mania's UFC 329 preview has Jesse Holland picking Cory Sandhagen by decision. Track record: winner called in 26 of 53 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
7 of 17 called the winner.
The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.
No AI predictions are available for this fight yet.
No market odds are available for this fight yet.
Videos
Outcome footage, post-fight coverage, and the pre-fight lead-up.
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