Sandhagen vs Bautista — Bantamweight · UFC 329

Scheduled · 11 Jul 2026
The Sandman
Cory
Sandhagen
18-6-0
VS
Mario
Bautista
17-3-0
Bantamweight
3 rounds
Main Card
UFC 329 • 11 Jul 2026
Las Vegas, Nevada

Tale of the Tape

Sandhagen vs Bautista
Sandhagen Bautista
  1. OutputSig. strikes landed / min 4.86 5.30
  2. Striking def.Striking defense 56% 55%
  3. DurabilitySig. strikes absorbed / min 3.47 3.98
  4. Takedown def.Takedown defense 56% 56%
  5. FinishingFinish rate 61% 59%
18-6-0
Record
17-3-0
3-2 last 5
Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
4-1 last 5
34
Age
32
1.80 m
Height — Sandhagen leads
1.75 m
178 cm
Reach — Bautista leads
183 cm
Switch
StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
Switch
61%
Finish rateFinish rateThe share of a fighter’s wins that ended inside the distance — by KO/TKO or submission — rather than going to the judges’ scorecards. Higher means more finishes.
59%
8
Wins by KO/TKO — Sandhagen leads
3
3
Wins by submission — Bautista leads
7
4.86
Sig. strikes landed / min — Bautista leadsSignificant strikes landed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter lands for every minute of fight time — a read on striking output and pace. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
5.30
3.47
Sig. strikes absorbed / min — Sandhagen leadsSignificant strikes absorbed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter takes for every minute of fight time. Lower is better — it means they get hit less often. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
3.98
56%
Striking defenseStriking defenseThe percentage of opponents’ significant strikes that do not land — strikes slipped, blocked or evaded. Higher is better. Not the same as striking accuracy, which counts your own strikes that land. From UFC/FightMetric.
55%
56%
Takedown defenseTakedown defenseThe percentage of opponents’ takedown attempts that are stuffed. Higher means harder to put on the mat. From UFC/FightMetric.
56%
14:43
Avg. fight timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
10:06
Bantamweight
Weight class
Bantamweight
United States
Nationality
United States
High Altitude Martial Arts · Aurora
Team
The MMA Lab · Arizona

Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Numbers reflect records coming into fight night. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.

How the Fight Plays Out

Case for Sandhagen

Sandhagen is the more proven and more creative striker — rangy switch-stance kickboxing, a flying-knee highlight reel and two title-fight experiences. He out-classes most of the division on the feet and already owns a win over Bautista, a first-round submission in 2019. Class and length are on his side.

Case for Bautista

Bautista is the live underdog on a long win streak, with the grappling and pace to grind even elite names — he out-worked José Aldo and submitted Vinicius Oliveira in his first headliner. Seven years on from that debut loss, he is a far more complete fighter and will look to turn this into the wrestling-heavy scrap that has carried his cards.

What to Watch

  • Can Bautista close the distance and wrestle, or does Sandhagen's length keep it a kickboxing match?
  • Does the 2019 first-round submission still mean anything seven years and two very different careers later?
  • Sandhagen's takedown defence (56%) against Bautista's grinding top game.
  • Both are coming off grappling-heavy decision losses to Umar Nurmagomedov — who adjusts better?

Pre-Fight Predictions

Independent picks — analysts, fighters and betting desks — for this fight, each traced to a timestamped source and checked before it goes live, are being verified and will appear here ahead of fight night.

Verified picks coming soon.

Odds

What the markets imply for this fight — percentages are a vig-stripped consensus across the sportsbooks, not a forecast or betting advice.

Sportsbook consensus · Who wins

57% Cory Sandhagen
43% Mario Bautista

Favoured: Sandhagen

Consensus of 3 books · range 57–59% · steady since open

Per-book detail (3)
  • BetOnline.ag57%
  • DraftKings57%
  • FanDuel59%

Vig-stripped win probability for Sandhagen at each book. The consensus is the median across books.

3 sportsbooks as of 17 Jun 16:47 UTC · Not betting advice · 18+ (21+ where required) · Gambling help (opens in new tab)

Fighters

Cory Sandhagen
18-6-0 · Bantamweight · The Sandman
View profile →
Mario Bautista
17-3-0 · Bantamweight
View profile →

Independent fan-made fight preview. Not affiliated with, endorsed by, or sponsored by the UFC or any other MMA promotion. Analysis is editorial opinion, not betting advice. Fighter names and records are used for commentary.