Final · 11 Jul 2026

Mario Bautista defeats Cory Sandhagen by unanimous decision

Win Mario Bautista 18-3-0

UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2

11 Jul 2026 · Las Vegas, Nevada, US

Decision · unanimousUnanimous decision

View fight recap
Loss The Sandman Cory Sandhagen 18-7-0

Sandhagen vs Bautista — Bantamweight · UFC 329

What happened

The result, the defining moments, and what the verdict means.

Bautista targeted Sandhagen's lead leg and drove the fight into takedowns.

Sandhagen stayed competitive with straight punching in the striking exchanges.

Bautista's takedowns carried the unanimous decision.

Watch

More from this fight.

More videos · 8 clips
Style file — UFC 329
Signature moments
Style file — UFC 329
Signature moments

Who Called It?

How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.

Result
Bautista def. Sandhagen
Dec

Analyst picks: Bedtime MMA perfect call; The MMA Guru perfect call; DFS By The Numbers perfect call; HopperoMMA perfect call; Half The Battle perfect call; AJ missed; Mike Finch missed; TheWeasle missed; Michael Bisping missed; Demetrious Johnson missed.

5 of 10 called the winner · 5 nailed the finish ★.

The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.

Full analyst picks ↓
Bedtime MMA Analyst called 67 of 99 Bedtime MMA: predicted Bautista · Decision. Actual Bautista · Dec. Result: Perfect call.

Gun to his head, sides with Bautista over Sandhagen. Bautista has improved significantly since their 2019 first meeting and his grappling and footwork evolution make him the more dangerous fighter now. Picks Bautista to outwork Sandhagen over three rounds and announce his title run.

“I'm going to go with Mario Bautista to win this one by decision.”
Hear it — 13:23 Bedtime MMA on YouTube ↗ Bedtime MMA’s track record →

Track record: winner called in 67 of 99 resolved picks, 28 a perfect call.

The MMA Guru Analyst called 44 of 65 The MMA Guru: predicted Bautista · Decision. Actual Bautista · Dec. Result: Perfect call.

Thinks Bautista's physicality, cage pressure and wrestling optics are enough to win close rounds. He expects Sandhagen to be dangerous and creative, but not damaging enough to clearly outweigh Bautista's control and aggression on the judges' cards.

“I think this is too much to overcome.”
Hear it — 40:30 The MMA Guru on YouTube ↗ The MMA Guru’s track record →

Track record: winner called in 44 of 65 resolved picks, 16 a perfect call.

DFS By The Numbers Betting deskAnalyst called 60 of 88 DFS By The Numbers: predicted Bautista · Decision. Actual Bautista · Dec. Result: Perfect call.

Calls it extremely close but sides with Bautista's wrestling, grappling and takedown threat. He likes Sandhagen's striking, yet thinks Bautista can bank enough control and blunt enough output to edge the cards.

Hear it — 32:59 DFS By The Numbers on YouTube ↗ DFS By The Numbers’s track record →

Track record: winner called in 60 of 88 resolved picks, 23 a perfect call.

HopperoMMA Analyst called 41 of 65 HopperoMMA: predicted Bautista · Decision. Actual Bautista · Dec. Result: Perfect call.

Takes Mario Bautista as an underdog because he can threaten Cory Sandhagen in both striking and grappling phases. He thinks Sandhagen's elite schedule matters, but Bautista's all-around pressure gives Sandhagen more to solve than a one-discipline matchup.

Hear it — 22:02 HopperoMMA on YouTube ↗ HopperoMMA’s track record →

Track record: winner called in 41 of 65 resolved picks, 15 a perfect call.

Half The Battle Analyst called 33 of 48 Half The Battle: predicted Bautista · Decision. Actual Bautista · Dec. Result: Perfect call. Note: Projects a close, split-decision-style fight.

Picks Mario Bautista to upset Cory Sandhagen in a close rematch. He expects a one-round-apiece type fight decided by a single takedown, strike or late moment, and favors Bautista's current form and hunger coming off his career-best win.

* Projects a close, split-decision-style fight.

Hear it — 23:06 Half The Battle on YouTube ↗ Half The Battle’s track record →

Track record: winner called in 33 of 48 resolved picks, 7 a perfect call.

AJ Betting deskAnalyst called 52 of 71 AJ: predicted Sandhagen · Decision. Actual Bautista · Dec. Result: Miss.

Sees Sandhagen as a little craftier, faster and more dynamic than Bautista. He respects Bautista's volume and cardio, but thinks Sandhagen's range tools and grappling answers edge the rematch.

Hear it — 74:05 AJ on YouTube ↗ AJ’s track record →

Track record: winner called in 52 of 71 resolved picks, 25 a perfect call.

Mike Finch Betting deskAnalyst called 23 of 36 Mike Finch: predicted Sandhagen · Decision. Actual Bautista · Dec. Result: Miss.

Says Bautista lacks the clear wrestling advantage needed to blunt Sandhagen. He trusts Sandhagen's schedule, submission grappling and ability to win two of three rounds in the big cage.

Hear it — 78:09 Mike Finch’s track record →

Track record: winner called in 23 of 36 resolved picks, 9 a perfect call.

TheWeasle Analyst called 34 of 48 TheWeasle: predicted Sandhagen · Decision. Actual Bautista · Dec. Result: Miss.

Sees a high-level rematch where Bautista will land and test whether Sandhagen's chin has slipped, but still trusts Sandhagen's range tools. He expects Sandhagen's long-range work and jab to edge a 29-28 unanimous decision.

Hear it — 26:47 TheWeasle on YouTube ↗ TheWeasle’s track record →

Track record: winner called in 34 of 48 resolved picks, 14 a perfect call.

Michael Bisping AnalystFighter called 12 of 20 Michael Bisping: predicted Sandhagen · Decision. Actual Bautista · Dec. Result: Miss.

Calls it a tough matchup, but sides with Sandhagen's reach, range, footwork and fight IQ. He thinks Bautista is underappreciated and well-rounded, yet expects Sandhagen to solve enough of the puzzle to win a decision.

“I'm going with Cory Sandhagen for a decision victory.”
Hear it — 14:56 Michael Bisping on YouTube ↗ Michael Bisping’s track record →

Track record: winner called in 12 of 20 resolved picks, 1 a perfect call.

Demetrious Johnson AnalystFighter called 9 of 15 Demetrious Johnson: predicted Sandhagen · to win. Actual Bautista · Dec. Result: Miss.

Calls the rematch close and gives Bautista real credit, but sides with Sandhagen's well-roundedness and elite schedule. He frames it as a near coin flip before choosing Sandhagen as the fighter who has fought and understood the highest-level problems.

“I'm going to have to go with Cory Sanhagen.”
Hear it — 15:11 Demetrious Johnson on YouTube ↗ Demetrious Johnson’s track record →

Track record: winner called in 9 of 15 resolved picks.

We Want Picks Betting desk on the fence We Want Picks: made no pick. Didn't call it.

The desk split the rematch: Angelo picked Mario Bautista, citing the improved wrestling and overall game, while Jacob picked Cory Sandhagen by decision because he expects Sandhagen's activity and movement to win the striking minutes.

Hear it — 127:19 We Want Picks on YouTube ↗ We Want Picks’s track record →
Archive Pre-fight material — kept for transparency.
Sandhagen vs Bautista
Sandhagen Bautista
  1. OutputSig. strikes landed / min 4.86 5.30
  2. Striking def.Striking defense 56% 55%
  3. DurabilitySig. strikes absorbed / min 3.47 3.98
  4. Takedown def.Takedown defense 56% 56%
  5. FinishingFinish rate 61% 56%
18-6-0
Record
17-3-0
3-2 last 5
Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
4-1 last 5
34
Age
32
1.80 m
Height — Sandhagen leads
1.75 m
178 cm
Reach — Bautista leads
183 cm
Switch
StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
Switch
61%
Finish rateFinish % — Sandhagen leadsFinish rateThe share of a fighter’s wins that ended inside the distance — by KO/TKO or submission — rather than going to the judges’ scorecards. Higher means more finishes.
56%
8
Wins by KO/TKOKO/TKO wins — Sandhagen leads
3
3
Wins by submissionSub wins — Bautista leads
7
4.86
Sig. strikes landed / minStrikes / min — Bautista leadsSignificant strikes landed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter lands for every minute of fight time — a read on striking output and pace. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
5.30
3.47
Sig. strikes absorbed / minAbsorbed / min — Sandhagen leadsSignificant strikes absorbed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter takes for every minute of fight time. Lower is better — it means they get hit less often. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
3.98
56%
Striking defenseStrike def.Striking defenseThe percentage of opponents’ significant strikes that do not land — strikes slipped, blocked or evaded. Higher is better. Not the same as striking accuracy, which counts your own strikes that land. From UFC/FightMetric.
55%
56%
Takedown defenseTD def.Takedown defenseThe percentage of opponents’ takedown attempts that are stuffed. Higher means harder to put on the mat. From UFC/FightMetric.
56%
14:43
Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
10:06
United States
Nationality
United States
High Altitude Martial Arts · Aurora
Team
The MMA Lab · Arizona

Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Numbers reflect records coming into fight night. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.

Pre-fight analysis — how we saw it going in

Case for Sandhagen

Sandhagen is the more proven and more creative striker — rangy switch-stance kickboxing, a flying-knee highlight reel and two title-fight experiences. He out-classes most of the division on the feet and already owns a win over Bautista, a first-round submission in 2019. Class and length are on his side.

Case for Bautista

Bautista is the live underdog on a long win streak, with the grappling and pace to grind even elite names — he out-worked José Aldo and submitted Vinicius Oliveira in his first headliner. Seven years on from that debut loss, he is a far more complete fighter and will look to turn this into the wrestling-heavy scrap that has carried his cards.

What We Were Watching For

  • Can Bautista close the distance and wrestle, or does Sandhagen's length keep it a kickboxing match?
  • Does the 2019 first-round submission still mean anything seven years and two very different careers later?
  • Sandhagen's takedown defence (56%) against Bautista's grinding top game.
  • Both are coming off grappling-heavy decision losses to Umar Nurmagomedov — who adjusts better?

Fighters

Cory Sandhagen
18-6-0 · Bantamweight · The Sandman
View profile →
Mario Bautista
17-3-0 · Bantamweight
View profile →

Comments

Comments are currently closed while we finish moderation and privacy controls.

Independent fan-made fight recap. Not affiliated with, endorsed by, or sponsored by the UFC or any other MMA promotion. Analysis is editorial opinion, not betting advice. Fighter names and records are used for commentary. Image credits · Privacy · Terms.