Sherdog senior editor and co-host of the Shillan & Duffy UFC preview show.
Scorecard
Called 13 of 16 resolved picks — every call traced to its source, no bare percentage. How Track Record works.
Not yet ranked — 16 of 20 resolved calls needed for a FightCardIQ Score
- Winner 13 3
- Method 9 4
- Round 2 3
- Underdog 3 1
Hit Miss
The running record
Every figure below is cumulative — computed over all resolved calls up to and including each card, never one card on its own. A cumulative rate settles as the denominator grows, so its flattening is arithmetic, not a verdict: read where a line sits, and read the vs. the field strip for whether this analyst gained or lost ground on the rest of the roster. Winner is scored on every resolved call; method, round and underdog each have a different and much smaller base, printed beside each one.
Hit Miss Field median Gap to the field
Ben Duffy has no published Score yet, so this figure shows the record only: 2 cards of scored calls.
13 of 16 — 81% now, from 82% at their first scored card.
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Method
69% 9 of 13 correct winners that named a method
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Round
40% 2 of 5 correct winners that named a round
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Underdog
3 of 4 priced underdog calls — too few to chart a trend.
The opening point is drawn dashed and hollow: below 5 scored calls this rate is not yet a reliable figure.
Card by card
Newest card first — the charts above run oldest to newest. One mark per scored call, hits above the line and misses below. Every call is listed in Call History, below.
- Ankalaev vs. Guskov 4 hit · 1 miss
- Du Plessis vs. Usman 9 hit · 2 miss
Call History
Every logged call, grouped by event, scored on Winner, Method, and Round — nothing about a result ever sits behind a click.
underdog pick favourite pick — shown only for picks with a known pre-fight price. The percentage is the chance the market gave the fighter this analyst picked. Open a row for the price’s source and the credit it earned.
Ankalaev vs. Guskov
Event scorecard
- Winner 4 1
- Method 3 1
- Round 1 1
- UnderdogNo underdog calls with a known pre-fight price
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Favourite call, market price 82.5%. Ankalaev · KO/TKO · R3 | Ankalaev · KO/TKO R5 | Hit | Hit | Miss | |
Expects Guskov to wear down if Ankalaev wrestles, clinches and attacks the legs, leading to a third-round ground TKO. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 82.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. * Says a submission would be equally likely. | |||||
| Temirov · KO/TKO · R1 | Temirov · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Hit | Hit | |
Acknowledges Erceg's encouraging win over Tim Elliott, but favors Temirov because Erceg's defensive lapses should give the heavier hitter a clean first-round finishing chance. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 67.0%. Vagaev · Dec | Vagaev · Dec | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Rates Vagaev as better overall, especially for control on the ground, and expects a dominant decision. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 67.0% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Jacoby · Dec | Saidov · KO/TKO R2 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Calls Jacoby the more tactical fighter who can move, stick and move in a closer matchup than his co-host expects. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 84.5%. Hussein · Dec | Hussein · Sub R3 | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
Sees Hussein as the better all-around fighter, with clean shots and takedowns overcoming Gibson's size, but does not expect a finish. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 84.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
Du Plessis vs. Usman
Event scorecard
- Winner 9 2
- Method 6 3
- Round 1 2
- Underdog 3 1
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Favourite call, market price 64.9%. Du Plessis · KO/TKO · R5 | Du Plessis · Dec | Hit | Miss | Miss | |
Expects Usman to have some early success, but Du Plessis' volume and pace to take over and produce a late fifth-round TKO. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 64.9% before the fight, from the pre-event sportsbook consensus frozen before the fight. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 74.8%. Duncan · Dec | Duncan · Dec | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Sees Duncan's youth, size and durability making him a bad stylistic matchup for Cannonier over three rounds. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 74.8% before the fight, from the pre-event sportsbook consensus frozen before the fight. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 83.5%. Barbosa · Sub · R1 | Barbosa · Sub R1 | Hit | Hit | Hit | |
Expects Barbosa's clinch and grappling advantage over Melisano to produce an early armbar. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 83.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 49.5%. Harris · Sub · R2 | Harris · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Miss | Miss | |
Favors Harris to exploit Hines' cardio with clinch pressure and a standing guillotine in the second round. Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 49.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Underdog credit earned: 0.01 — (50% − 49.5%) ÷ 50%. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 88.5%. Coria · Dec | Coria · Dec | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Expects Coria's middle-distance boxing to punish Nicoll over three rounds, while stopping short of the price implied by the betting line. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 88.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 41.5%. Franco · KO/TKO | Franco · KO/TKO R2 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Sees upset potential in Franco's quicker hands and comparable power, with the defensive flaws on both sides leading him to a knockout pick. Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 41.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Underdog credit earned: 0.17 — (50% − 41.5%) ÷ 50%. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 44.5%. Delgado · Dec | Delgado · Dec | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Thinks Delgado can reproduce the scrambling and striking answers that troubled Bashi in his loss, but calls it a near pick'em. Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 44.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Underdog credit earned: 0.11 — (50% − 44.5%) ÷ 50%. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 81.5%. Kline · Dec | Kline · Dec | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Sees Ricci's best routes narrowed by Kline's striking and grappling advantages, making Kline the straightforward decision pick. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 81.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 35.1%. Montes · Dec | McMillen · KO/TKO R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Favors Montes to weather McMillen's fast start and pull ahead after McMillen slows in the later rounds. Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 35.1% before the fight, from the pre-event sportsbook consensus frozen before the fight. Underdog credit earned: 0.00 — credit is earned only on a correct call. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 75.2%. Hooper · Dec | Hooper · Sub R1 | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
Sees Ramirez as hard to submit but a rare opponent Hooper can confidently outstrike, leading to a decision. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 75.2% before the fight, from the pre-event sportsbook consensus frozen before the fight. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 60.5%. Ko · KO/TKO · R2 | Lebosnoyani · Dec | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Calls Ko the more composed and well-rounded fighter, expecting his straighter punches to produce a second-round knockout. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 60.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
Videos
Every source clip behind Ben Duffy's logged calls.