Sherdog senior editor and co-host of the Shillan & Duffy UFC preview show.
Track Record
Derived from every pick we've logged and verified — shown with its denominator, never a bare percentage. Draws and no-contests fall outside it. How Track Record works.
Called 9 of 10 resolved picks
6 of 9 hits also matched the method.
Call Profile
How this analyst's logged calls performed: winner, stated detail, and frozen pre-event underdog context.
5 calls included both method and round.
On the Card
Ben Duffy's picks for UFC Fight Night — tap a row for the reasoning and the source clip.
Upcoming Ankalaev vs Guskov PickAnkalaev · KO/TKO · R3 Ben Duffy: picks Ankalaev · KO/TKO · R3 for Ankalaev vs Guskov — upcoming. Note: Says a submission would be equally likely.
Expects Guskov to wear down if Ankalaev wrestles, clinches and attacks the legs, leading to a third-round ground TKO.
* Says a submission would be equally likely.
Upcoming Erceg vs Temirov PickTemirov · KO/TKO · R1 Ben Duffy: picks Temirov · KO/TKO · R1 for Erceg vs Temirov — upcoming.
Acknowledges Erceg's encouraging win over Tim Elliott, but favors Temirov because Erceg's defensive lapses should give the heavier hitter a clean first-round finishing chance.
Upcoming Vagaev vs Izagakhmaev PickVagaev · Decision Ben Duffy: picks Vagaev · Decision for Vagaev vs Izagakhmaev — upcoming.
Rates Vagaev as better overall, especially for control on the ground, and expects a dominant decision.
Upcoming Jacoby vs Said PickJacoby · Decision Ben Duffy: picks Jacoby · Decision for Jacoby vs Said — upcoming.
Calls Jacoby the more tactical fighter who can move, stick and move in a closer matchup than his co-host expects.
Upcoming Gibson vs Hussein PickHussein · Decision Ben Duffy: picks Hussein · Decision for Gibson vs Hussein — upcoming.
Sees Hussein as the better all-around fighter, with clean shots and takedowns overcoming Gibson's size, but does not expect a finish.
Resolved Calls
What was predicted, what actually happened, and whether it hit.
Perfect Barbosa vs Melisano Ben Duffy: predicted Barbosa · Sub · R1 for Barbosa vs Melisano. Actual Barbosa · Sub R1. Result: Perfect.
Expects Barbosa's clinch and grappling advantage over Melisano to produce an early armbar.
Perfect Bashi vs Delgado Ben Duffy: predicted Delgado · Decision for Bashi vs Delgado. Actual Delgado · Dec. Result: Perfect.
Thinks Delgado can reproduce the scrambling and striking answers that troubled Bashi in his loss, but calls it a near pick'em.
Perfect Cannonier vs Duncan Ben Duffy: predicted Duncan · Decision for Cannonier vs Duncan. Actual Duncan · Dec. Result: Perfect.
Sees Duncan's youth, size and durability making him a bad stylistic matchup for Cannonier over three rounds.
Perfect Coria vs Nicoll Ben Duffy: predicted Coria · Decision for Coria vs Nicoll. Actual Coria · Dec. Result: Perfect.
Expects Coria's middle-distance boxing to punish Nicoll over three rounds, while stopping short of the price implied by the betting line.
Hit Du Plessis vs Usman Ben Duffy: predicted Du Plessis · KO/TKO · R5 for Du Plessis vs Usman. Actual Du Plessis · Dec. Result: Hit.
Expects Usman to have some early success, but Du Plessis' volume and pace to take over and produce a late fifth-round TKO.
Hit Harris vs Hines Ben Duffy: predicted Harris · Sub · R2 for Harris vs Hines. Actual Harris · KO/TKO R1. Result: Hit.
Favors Harris to exploit Hines' cardio with clinch pressure and a standing guillotine in the second round.
Hit Hooper vs Ramirez Ben Duffy: predicted Hooper · Decision for Hooper vs Ramirez. Actual Hooper · Sub R1. Result: Hit.
Sees Ramirez as hard to submit but a rare opponent Hooper can confidently outstrike, leading to a decision.
Miss McMillen vs Montes Ben Duffy: predicted Montes · Decision for McMillen vs Montes. Actual McMillen · KO/TKO R3. Result: Miss.
Favors Montes to weather McMillen's fast start and pull ahead after McMillen slows in the later rounds.
Perfect Ricci vs Kline Ben Duffy: predicted Kline · Decision for Ricci vs Kline. Actual Kline · Dec. Result: Perfect.
Sees Ricci's best routes narrowed by Kline's striking and grappling advantages, making Kline the straightforward decision pick.
Perfect Rodrigues Jr. vs Franco Ben Duffy: predicted Franco · KO/TKO for Rodrigues Jr. vs Franco. Actual Franco · KO/TKO R2. Result: Perfect.
Sees upset potential in Franco's quicker hands and comparable power, with the defensive flaws on both sides leading him to a knockout pick.