Bonfim vs Brady — Welterweight · UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brady

Scheduled · 7 Nov 2026
UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brady Bonfim vs. Brady · Welterweight · Main Event · 5 rounds · Las Vegas, Nevada
Gabriel
Bonfim
Record Record: 20-1-0
Wins
20
Losses
1
Draws
0
4KO/TKO
13Sub
3Dec

Red corner

20-1-0
Record
19-2-0
Source pending
Nationality
Source pending
29
Age
33
6′1″185 cm
Height — Bonfim leads
5′10″178 cm
73″184 cm
Reach — Bonfim leads
72″183 cm
4.76
Sig. strikes landed / minStr / min — Bonfim leadsSignificant strikes landed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter lands for every minute of fight time — a read on striking output and pace. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
4.08
85%
Finish rateFinish % — Bonfim leadsFinish rateThe share of a fighter’s wins that ended inside the distance — by KO/TKO or submission — rather than going to the judges’ scorecards. Higher means more finishes.
47%
Sean
Brady
Record Record: 19-2-0
Wins
19
Losses
2
Draws
0
3KO/TKO
6Sub
10Dec

Blue corner

View full tale of the tape & radar (+10)
20-1-0
Record
19-2-0
Source pending
Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
Source pending
Source pending
StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
Source pending
4
Wins by KO/TKOKO wins — Bonfim leads
3
13
Wins by submissionSub wins — Bonfim leads
6
3.61
Sig. strikes absorbed / minAbs / min — Brady leadsSignificant strikes absorbed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter takes for every minute of fight time. Lower is better — it means they get hit less often. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
2.77
65%
Striking defenseStrike def. — Bonfim leadsStriking defenseThe percentage of opponents’ significant strikes that do not land — strikes slipped, blocked or evaded. Higher is better. Not the same as striking accuracy, which counts your own strikes that land. From UFC/FightMetric.
60%
79%
Takedown defenseTD def. — Brady leadsTakedown defenseThe percentage of opponents’ takedown attempts that are stuffed. Higher means harder to put on the mat. From UFC/FightMetric.
87%
09:43
Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
13:21
Bonfim Brothers Academy
Team
Marquez MMA

Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Numbers reflect the fighter data snapshot used for this page. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.

Predictions summary

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Analysts

Independent analyst picks — analysts, fighters and betting desks — on this fight: who they pick, how, and the exact moment they say it. Tap any clip to hear it.

UFC Predict — Logistic Core
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Gabriel Bonfim

UFC Predict — Logistic Core explicitly selects Gabriel Bonfim for this matchup; no method or round is stated. Recorded from the 2026-10-21 page snapshot because no per-pick publication time is shown.

Track record: winner called in 10 of 14 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 71.4% (10 hit, 4 miss, across 14 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 50.0% (3 hit, 3 miss, across 6 underdog calls on 14 resolved calls).

View full track record (14 calls)
FightIQ
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Gabriel Bonfim

FightIQ's 2026-10-18 snapshot selects Gabriel Bonfim at 51%; it publishes no method or round.

Track record: winner called in 159 of 227 resolved picks, 59 a perfect call. How winner calls are counted · What a perfect call is

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 70.0% (159 hit, 68 miss, across 227 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 39.9% (59 hit, 89 miss, across 148 method-scored calls on 227 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 55.0% (11 hit, 9 miss, across 20 underdog calls on 227 resolved calls).

View full track record (227 calls)
UFC Predict — CatBoost
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Gabriel Bonfim

UFC Predict — CatBoost explicitly selects Gabriel Bonfim for this matchup; no method or round is stated. Recorded from the 2026-10-21 page snapshot because no per-pick publication time is shown.

Track record: winner called in 9 of 14 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 64.3% (9 hit, 5 miss, across 14 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 42.9% (3 hit, 4 miss, across 7 underdog calls on 14 resolved calls).

View full track record (14 calls)
UFC Predict — Main + Market
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Gabriel Bonfim

UFC Predict — Main + Market explicitly selects Gabriel Bonfim for this matchup; no method or round is stated. Recorded from the 2026-10-21 page snapshot because no per-pick publication time is shown.

Track record: winner called in 9 of 14 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 64.3% (9 hit, 5 miss, across 14 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 2 miss, across 2 underdog calls on 14 resolved calls).

View full track record (14 calls)
Combat Edge Model
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Current pick evidence

Picked: Gabriel Bonfim

Combat Edge Model's frozen v0.8-2026-10-04 forecast selects Gabriel Bonfim at 57%; no method or round is stated. Recorded from the 2026-10-21 page snapshot because no per-pick publication time is shown.

Track record: winner called in 12 of 20 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 60.0% (12 hit, 8 miss, across 20 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 25.0% (1 hit, 3 miss, across 4 underdog calls on 20 resolved calls).

View full track record (20 calls)
UFC Predict — Ensemble
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Gabriel Bonfim

UFC Predict — Ensemble explicitly selects Gabriel Bonfim for this matchup; no method or round is stated. Recorded from the 2026-10-21 page snapshot because no per-pick publication time is shown.

Track record: winner called in 8 of 14 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 57.1% (8 hit, 6 miss, across 14 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 37.5% (3 hit, 5 miss, across 8 underdog calls on 14 resolved calls).

View full track record (14 calls)
UFC Predict — LightGBM
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Gabriel Bonfim

UFC Predict — LightGBM explicitly selects Gabriel Bonfim for this matchup; no method or round is stated. Recorded from the 2026-10-21 page snapshot because no per-pick publication time is shown.

Track record: winner called in 8 of 14 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 57.1% (8 hit, 6 miss, across 14 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (2 hit, 4 miss, across 6 underdog calls on 14 resolved calls).

View full track record (14 calls)
UFC Predict — XGBoost
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Gabriel Bonfim

UFC Predict — XGBoost explicitly selects Gabriel Bonfim for this matchup; no method or round is stated. Recorded from the 2026-10-21 page snapshot because no per-pick publication time is shown.

Track record: winner called in 8 of 14 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 57.1% (8 hit, 6 miss, across 14 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (2 hit, 4 miss, across 6 underdog calls on 14 resolved calls).

View full track record (14 calls)
Combatrics model
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Gabriel Bonfim

Combatrics structured model_pick selects Gabriel Bonfim at 61% (medium confidence); no method or round is stated. Cold review confirmed the page Edge label agrees. Recorded from the 2026-10-21 page snapshot because no per-pick publication time is shown.

Track record builds as we verify their past calls.

Analyst track record

No qualifying picks

View full track record
MMA Intel
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Sean Brady

MMA Intel explicitly selects Sean Brady over the listed opponent; no method or round is stated. Recorded from the 2026-10-21 page snapshot because no per-pick publication time is shown.

Track record: winner called in 8 of 14 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 57.1% (8 hit, 6 miss, across 14 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 20.0% (1 hit, 4 miss, across 5 underdog calls on 14 resolved calls).

View full track record (14 calls)
MMA Data Analytics
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Sean Brady

MMA Data Analytics' explicit Analyst favorite / Our read selects Sean Brady (conviction 4/10); no method or round is stated. Recorded from the 2026-10-21 page snapshot because no per-pick publication time is shown.

Track record builds as we verify their past calls.

Analyst track record

No qualifying picks

View full track record

Analyst picks: UFC Predict — Logistic Core picks Bonfim; FightIQ picks Bonfim; UFC Predict — CatBoost picks Bonfim; UFC Predict — Main + Market picks Bonfim; Combat Edge Model picks Bonfim; MMA Intel picks Brady; UFC Predict — Ensemble picks Bonfim; UFC Predict — LightGBM picks Bonfim; UFC Predict — XGBoost picks Bonfim; MMA Data Analytics picks Brady; Combatrics model picks Bonfim.

Chart: selected analyst picks, not a win probability. Pill badge: Winner hit rate (total scored picks before this event).

The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.

Matchup analysis

Analyst-authored matchup analysis; it is not an AI forecast or pick.

No AI forecast is included in this static view; the authored analysis is shown instead.

Case for Bonfim

UFC lists Gabriel Bonfim at 20-1-0 (W-L-D). The retained fighter profile records 4.76 significant strikes landed per minute and 2.57 takedowns per 15 minutes. Bonfim's 2.57 takedowns per 15 minutes directly test Brady's 87% takedown defense.

Case for Brady

UFC lists Sean Brady at 19-2-0 (W-L-D); its latest athlete-page result is a win over Buckley on May 10, 2026. The retained fighter profile records 4.08 significant strikes landed per minute, 3.58 takedowns per 15 minutes, and 87% takedown defense. Brady's 3.58 takedowns and 87% takedown defense give him both an entry and defensive benchmark.

What to Watch

  • Can Bonfim's 2.57 takedowns per 15 minutes test Brady's 87% takedown defense?
  • Can Brady's 3.58 takedowns per 15 minutes challenge Bonfim's wrestling defense?
  • Which fighter settles into a consistent pace first?

Market Odds

No current consensus line is saved on this page.

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