UFC 321: Aspinall vs Gane  25 Oct 2025 · Etihad Arena, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, AE

Mackenzie Dern defeats Virna Jandiroba by Decision - Unanimous

Win Mackenzie Dern 16-5-0
Loss Virna Jandiroba 22-4-0
Decision - Unanimous

Round 5 · 5:00

Dern vs Jandiroba · UFC 321: Aspinall vs Gane

Predictions summary

What happened

The result, the defining moments, and what the verdict means.

The championship rematch brought two standout grapplers together, but the official UFC fight report said its deciding moments came on the feet. Dern landed the more individually impactful blows across multiple rounds.

Jandiroba found takedowns without advancing position, doing much damage or chasing submissions; Dern stayed active while working off her back. After five rounds, the judges awarded Dern the unanimous decision and the vacant strawweight title.

Fight details

The verified result and matchup record are available above. Analysis and a fight narrative have not been published for this bout.

Records & career stats
Dern vs Jandiroba
Dern Jandiroba
  1. OutputSig. strikes landed / min 3.38 2.27
  2. Striking def.Striking defense 53% 56%
  3. DurabilitySig. strikes absorbed / min 3.74 2.86
  4. Takedown def.Takedown defense 41% 73%
  5. FinishingFinish rate 50% 65%
15-5-0
Record
22-3-0
—
Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
Source pending
United States
Nationality
Brazil
33
Age
37
5′4″163 cm
Height — Dern leads
5′3″160 cm
63″160 cm
Reach — Jandiroba leads
64″163 cm
—
StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
Source pending
50%
Finish rateFinish % — Jandiroba leadsFinish rateThe share of a fighter’s wins that ended inside the distance — by KO/TKO or submission — rather than going to the judges’ scorecards. Higher means more finishes.
65%
0
Wins by KO/TKOKO wins — Jandiroba leads
1
8
Wins by submissionSub wins — Jandiroba leads
14
3.38
Sig. strikes landed / minStr / min — Dern leadsSignificant strikes landed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter lands for every minute of fight time — a read on striking output and pace. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
2.27
3.74
Sig. strikes absorbed / minAbs / min — Jandiroba leadsSignificant strikes absorbed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter takes for every minute of fight time. Lower is better — it means they get hit less often. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
2.86
53%
Striking defenseStrike def. — Jandiroba leadsStriking defenseThe percentage of opponents’ significant strikes that do not land — strikes slipped, blocked or evaded. Higher is better. Not the same as striking accuracy, which counts your own strikes that land. From UFC/FightMetric.
56%
41%
Takedown defenseTD def. — Jandiroba leadsTakedown defenseThe percentage of opponents’ takedown attempts that are stuffed. Higher means harder to put on the mat. From UFC/FightMetric.
73%
14:49
Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
13:18
Megaton Dias BJJ
Team
Academia Fight House

Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Record is as of fight night; career stats, recent form and win totals are the latest on file and may include this fight. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.

Videos

Outcome footage, post-fight coverage, and the pre-fight lead-up.

Before the fight (1)

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Who Called It?

How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.

Drake Burden
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Mackenzie Dern

Fight result: Mackenzie Dern · Decision - Unanimous

RotoWire's UFC 321 expert-picks table lists Drake Burden on Mackenzie Dern.

Track record: winner called in 62 of 98 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 63.3% (62 hit, 36 miss, across 98 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 46.2% (6 hit, 7 miss, across 13 underdog calls on 98 resolved calls).

View full track record (98 calls)
Jon Litterine
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Mackenzie Dern

Fight result: Mackenzie Dern · Decision - Unanimous

RotoWire's UFC 321 expert-picks table lists Jon Litterine on Mackenzie Dern.

Track record: winner called in 70 of 124 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 56.5% (70 hit, 54 miss, across 124 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 28.0% (7 hit, 18 miss, across 25 underdog calls on 124 resolved calls).

View full track record (124 calls)
Cole Shelton
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Mackenzie Dern

Fight result: Mackenzie Dern · Decision - Unanimous

RotoWire's UFC 321 expert-picks table lists Cole Shelton on Mackenzie Dern.

Track record: winner called in 62 of 116 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 53.4% (62 hit, 54 miss, across 116 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 87.5% (7 hit, 1 miss, across 8 method-scored calls on 116 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Underdog Accuracy 16.7% (3 hit, 15 miss, across 18 underdog calls on 116 resolved calls).

View full track record (116 calls)
Jake Letarski
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Virna Jandiroba

Fight result: Mackenzie Dern · Decision - Unanimous

RotoWire's UFC 321 expert-picks table lists Jake Letarski on Virna Jandiroba.

Track record: winner called in 42 of 69 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 60.9% (42 hit, 27 miss, across 69 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 30.8% (4 hit, 9 miss, across 13 underdog calls on 69 resolved calls).

View full track record (69 calls)
Joe SunTszu
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Virna Jandiroba

Fight result: Mackenzie Dern · Decision - Unanimous

RotoWire's UFC 321 expert-picks table lists Joe SunTszu on Virna Jandiroba.

Track record: winner called in 34 of 64 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 53.1% (34 hit, 30 miss, across 64 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 25.0% (4 hit, 12 miss, across 16 underdog calls on 64 resolved calls).

View full track record (64 calls)
Chris Olson
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Virna Jandiroba

Fight result: Mackenzie Dern · Decision - Unanimous

RotoWire's UFC 321 expert-picks table lists Chris Olson on Virna Jandiroba.

Track record: winner called in 32 of 71 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 45.1% (32 hit, 39 miss, across 71 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (7 hit, 14 miss, across 21 underdog calls on 71 resolved calls).

View full track record (71 calls)

Analyst picks: Drake Burden Hit; Jake Letarski Miss; Jon Litterine Hit; Cole Shelton Hit; Joe SunTszu Miss; Chris Olson Miss.

3 of 6 called the winner.

Chart: selected analyst picks, not a win probability. Pill badge: Winner hit rate (total scored picks before this event).

The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.

AI Predictions

This fight is settled. Eligible pre-fight AI forecasts load when this page is online.

Market Odds

No current consensus line is saved on this page.

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