Justin Gaethje defeats Rafael Fiziev by Decision (unanimous)
Round 3 · 5:00
Gaethje vs Fiziev — Lightweight Bout · UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev
Predictions summary
What happened
The result, the defining moments, and what the verdict means.
Fiziev's early stance switches and Muay Thai kicks kept the opening competitive after he stepped in on short notice.
Gaethje's pressure, a second-round knockdown and a key uppercut changed the momentum.
Fiziev started the third sharply, but Gaethje's pressure and heavy shots carried him through the finish.
- Official UFC resultsUFC 313: Pereira vs Ankalaev — Main Card Results
Pre-fight analysis — how we saw it going in
Case for Gaethje
Gaethje entered the rematch with the deeper five-round experience, the heavier late-fight optics and a proven ability to win exchanges even when absorbing damage. His path was to survive Fiziev’s early speed, build behind pressure and turn the final two rounds into a durability test.
Case for Fiziev
Fiziev remained the cleaner technician in tight spaces, with knees, kicks and fast counters that could punish Gaethje’s forward march. Taking the fight on short notice made efficiency critical: bank early rounds, damage the legs and keep Gaethje from snowballing late.
What We Were Watching For
- Whether Fiziev’s early speed could bank enough offense before Gaethje adjusted.
- Gaethje’s right hand as the fight settled into repeated pocket exchanges.
- Short-notice conditioning for Fiziev against Gaethje’s late pressure.
Records & career stats
- 25-5-0
- Record
- 12-3-0
- 4-1 last 5
- Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
- 2-3 last 5
- USA
- Nationality
- Azerbaijan
- 37
- Age
- 33
- Orthodox
- StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
- Switch
- 78%
- Finish rateFinish %Finish rateThe share of a fighter’s wins that ended inside the distance — by KO/TKO or submission — rather than going to the judges’ scorecards. Higher means more finishes.
- Source pending
- 21
- Wins by KO/TKOKO wins
- —
- 12:38
- Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
- 11:32
- Genesis Training Center
- Team
- Tiger Muay Thai - Phuket, Thailand
Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Record is as of fight night; career stats, recent form and win totals are the latest on file and may include this fight. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.
Videos
Outcome footage, post-fight coverage, and the pre-fight lead-up.
Before the fight (1)
Comments
Who Called It?
How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.
Current pick evidence
Picked: Justin Gaethje · Dec
Fight result: Justin Gaethje · Decision (unanimous)
AJ picks Justin Gaethje in another competitive fight, explicitly calling for another decision win over Rafael Fiziev.
Track record: winner called in 175 of 264 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 66.3% (175 hit, 89 miss, across 264 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 58.7% (61 hit, 43 miss, across 104 method-scored calls on 264 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 77.8% (7 hit, 2 miss, across 9 round-scored calls on 264 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 36.4% (12 hit, 21 miss, across 33 underdog calls on 264 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 66.3% 175 89
- Method Accuracy 58.7% 61 43
- Round Accuracy 77.8% 7 2
- Underdog Accuracy 36.4% 12 21
Current pick evidence
Picked: Rafael Fiziev · KO/TKO
Fight result: Justin Gaethje · Decision (unanimous)
The MMA Guru picks Rafael Fiziev to TKO Justin Gaethje early, later describing the finish as arriving in the first or second round.
Track record: winner called in 213 of 322 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 66.1% (213 hit, 109 miss, across 322 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 53.4% (62 hit, 54 miss, across 116 method-scored calls on 322 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 35.9% (14 hit, 25 miss, across 39 round-scored calls on 322 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 47.4% (18 hit, 20 miss, across 38 underdog calls on 322 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 66.1% 213 109
- Method Accuracy 53.4% 62 54
- Round Accuracy 35.9% 14 25
- Underdog Accuracy 47.4% 18 20
Analyst picks: AJ Devito Hit; The MMA Guru Miss.
1 of 2 called the winner.
Chart: selected analyst picks, not a win probability. Pill badge: Winner hit rate (total scored picks before this event).
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The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.
AI Predictions
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Market Odds
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