UK-based MMA commentator known for blunt UFC analysis and full-card predictions.
The MMA Guru on YouTube ↗Scorecard
Called 66 of 99 resolved picks — every call traced to its source, no bare percentage. How Track Record works.
- Winner 66 33
- Method 28 17
- Round 9 10
- Underdog 11 10
Hit Miss
The running record
Every figure below is cumulative — computed over all resolved calls up to and including each card, never one card on its own. A cumulative rate settles as the denominator grows, so its flattening is arithmetic, not a verdict: read where a line sits, and read the vs. the field strip for whether this analyst gained or lost ground on the rest of the roster. Winner is scored on every resolved call; method, round and underdog each have a different and much smaller base, printed beside each one.
Hit Miss Field median Gap to the field
The MMA Guru scored 76.9 after 11 cards, against a ranked field spanning 59.7 to 92.5. Also plotted: TheWeasle (#1), Lucas Tracy (#7), HopperoMMA (#9). Against the median of the other 17 ranked analysts they finished 0.9 above, from 0.5 above at UFC Freedom 250.
76.9 now, across 11 cards. The first 3 cards are drawn dashed and hollow: below 20 resolved calls there is no published score yet. The shaded band is where the whole ranked field sits — 59.7 to 92.5 across 18 analysts, this one included.
66 of 99 — 67% now, from 50% at their first scored card.
-
Method
62% 28 of 45 correct winners that named a method
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Round
47% 9 of 19 correct winners that named a round
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Underdog
52% 11 of 21 priced underdog calls
The opening points are drawn dashed and hollow: below 5 scored calls this rate is not yet a reliable figure.
Card by card
Newest card first — the charts above run oldest to newest. One mark per scored call, hits above the line and misses below. Every call is listed in Call History, below.
- Nurmagomedov vs. Song 76.9 7 hit · 6 miss
- Hernandez vs. Rodrigues 79.8 6 hit · 4 miss
- UFC 330 81.6 5 hit · 4 miss
- Gamrot vs. Salkilld 84.5 10 hit · 2 miss
- Medic vs. Rodriguez 83.4 4 hit · 4 miss
- Du Plessis vs. Usman 87.5 10 hit · 2 miss
- UFC 329 85.7 12 hit · 1 miss
- UFC Freedom 250 67.6 4 hit · 3 miss
- UFC 328 64.1 2 hit · 2 miss
- UFC 327 68.1 3 hit · 2 miss
- UFC Seattle 63.6 3 hit · 3 miss
Call History
Every logged call, grouped by event, scored on Winner, Method, and Round — nothing about a result ever sits behind a click.
underdog pick favourite pick — shown only for picks with a known pre-fight price. The percentage is the chance the market gave the fighter this analyst picked. Open a row for the price’s source and the credit it earned.
Silva vs. Delgado
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aldrich vs Tarin | Tarin · Dec | Upcoming | |||
| Bahamondes vs Salikhov | Bahamondes · KO/TKO | Upcoming | |||
| Belgaroui vs Santos | Belgaroui · KO/TKO | Upcoming | |||
| Cortes-Acosta vs Blaydes | Cortes-Acosta · KO/TKO | Upcoming | |||
| Elliott vs Chairez | Chairez · KO/TKO | Upcoming | |||
| Fiorot vs Grasso | Fiorot · Dec | Upcoming | |||
| Garcia vs Rongzhu | Garcia · to win | Upcoming | |||
| King vs Rosas | King · to win | Upcoming | |||
| Klose vs Gantt | Gantt · Dec | Upcoming | |||
| Martinez vs Ige | Martinez · Dec | Upcoming | |||
| McMillen vs Rahiki | McMillen · KO/TKO | Upcoming | |||
| Moreno vs Morales | Morales · Dec | Upcoming | |||
| Silva vs Delgado | Silva · to win | Upcoming | |||
Nurmagomedov vs. Song
Event scorecard
- Winner 7 6
- Method 2 1
- Round 1
- UnderdogNo underdog calls with a known pre-fight price
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yadong · to win | Yadong · KO/TKO R2 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Picks Song Yadong as the underdog, pointing to his power, sprawl, conditioning, and opportunities during Umar Nurmagomedov's entries. “I'm gonna go with Song. I think he chins Umar.” | |||||
| Xiaonan · Dec | Gomes · KO/TKO R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Picks Yan Xiaonan to win a close decision on cleaner output and experience at range. “I'm going to go Yan Xiaonan by decision.” | |||||
| Asakura · KO/TKO · R1 | Asakura · KO/TKO R2 | Hit | Hit | Miss | |
Picks Kai Asakura's speed and finishing threat to produce an early stoppage. “A first-round TKO win for Kai Asakura over Aori Chuang.” | |||||
| Perez · to win | Sumudaerji · Dec | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Picks Alex Perez in the rematch without committing to a method. “I'm going with Alex Perez.” | |||||
| Rodrigues Jr. · to win | Ce · KO/TKO R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Picks Levi Rodrigues Jr. while presenting submission and TKO as alternative routes, so no single method is recorded. “Levi Rodriguez Jr. ... win by submission or TKO over Leuch.” | |||||
| Hasan · KO/TKO | Hasan · KO/TKO R2 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Picks Bilal Hasan by an early TKO without a specific round. “Balo Hassan getting this one done by TKO in the earlier rounds.” | |||||
| Lima · Dec | Lima · Sub R3 | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
Picks Andre Lima to win a competitive decision. “I'm going to go with Andre Lemur by decision ... 29-28.” | |||||
| Jenkins · KO/TKO | Woodson · Dec | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Picks Jack Jenkins by TKO without a stated round. “I'm going to go with Jenkins by TKO.” | |||||
| Tsuruya · to win | Tsuruya · Sub R1 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Picks Rei Tsuruya without committing to a method. “I'm gonna go with Ray Turia.” | |||||
| Jingnan · Dec | Polastri · KO/TKO R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Picks Xiong Jingnan's size and experience to earn a decision. “Jong Jingyang winning this one by decision. 30-27, 29-28.” | |||||
| Lui · Dec | Santiago · KO/TKO R2 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Picks Lawrence Lui's striking and grappling mix to win a decision. “Lawrence Louie ... beats Hector Santiago by decision.” | |||||
| Nuzzi · to win | Nuzzi · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Picks Francesco Nuzzi without a stated method. “I'm going to go with Francesco Nuzzi.” | |||||
| Nelson · to win | Nelson · Dec | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Picks Cam Nelson as an underdog without a stated method. “I'm going to go with Cam Nelson getting this one done over Ding Mang.” | |||||
Hernandez vs. Rodrigues
Event scorecard
- Winner 6 4
- Method 2 2
- RoundCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog 1 1
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Favourite call, market price 87.5%. Dyer · KO/TKO | Dyer · KO/TKO R3 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Picks Shanaelle Dyer to win by stoppage. “So, I'm going to go with Shanaelle Dyer getting this one by TKO.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 87.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 62.5%. McVey · KO/TKO | McVey · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Leans toward Jackson McVey, with a possible second-round stoppage. “I'm leaning towards Jackson McVey getting this one done, maybe by TKO in the second round.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 62.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 62.5%. Young · Dec | Dorsainvil · Dec | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Picks Gage Young to win by a 29-28 decision. “I'm going to go with Gage Young getting this one done by 29-28 decision.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 62.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 87.5%. Barbosa · to win | Barbosa · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Picks Marcio Barbosa to win. “I'm going to go with Marcio Barbosa getting this one done.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 87.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 46.5%. Nzechukwu · KO/TKO | Gaziev · KO/TKO R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Picks Kennedy Nzechukwu by a second- or third-round TKO. “So I'm going to go with Kennedy Nzechukwu getting this one done against Shamil the Blob Gaziev by second or third round TKO.” Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 46.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Underdog credit earned: 0.00 — credit is earned only on a correct call. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 76.5%. Douglas · to win | Emmers · KO/TKO R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Picks Llerena Douglas, citing his knockout power. “I'm going to go with Llerena Douglas. His KO power is just too much for Emmers.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 76.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 83.5%. Judice · Dec | Judice · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
Picks Carly Judice by decision. “I'm going to go with Carly Judice getting this one done by decision.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 83.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 77.5%. Jones · KO/TKO | Mederos · KO/TKO R2 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Picks Mason Jones by TKO. “I'm going to go with Mason Jones getting this one by TKO.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 77.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 78.5%. de Ridder · to win | de Ridder · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Picks Reinier de Ridder to win. “I'm going to go with Reinier De Ridder in this one.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 78.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 33.5%. Rodrigues · KO/TKO | Rodrigues · Dec | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
Picks Gregory Rodrigues by TKO. “I'm going to go with Gregory Rodrigues by TKO.” Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 33.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Underdog credit earned: 0.33 — (50% − 33.5%) ÷ 50%. | |||||
UFC 330
Makhachev vs. Machado Garry
Event scorecard
- Winner 5 4
- Method 1
- RoundCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog 2 2
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Favourite call, market price 72.5%. Fernando · to win | Fernando · KO/TKO R3 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Favors the LFA light-heavyweight champion Fernando for his size and finishing potential. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 72.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 41.5%. Magny · to win | Magny · KO/TKO R2 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Calls Magny an unusual pick but ultimately backs him to win. Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 41.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Underdog credit earned: 0.17 — (50% − 41.5%) ÷ 50%. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 49.5%. Gore · Dec | Gore · Dec R3 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Backs Gore over Luque and expects him to take the decision. Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 49.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Underdog credit earned: 0.01 — (50% − 49.5%) ÷ 50%. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 24.5%. McConico · to win | Johnson · KO/TKO R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Takes McConico in a high-variance pick. Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 24.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Underdog credit earned: 0.00 — credit is earned only on a correct call. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 51.5%. Turner · to win | Turner · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Sees Turner as capable of catching Fernandes in striking exchanges and backs him to win. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 51.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 73.5%. Álvarez · to win | Njokuani · Dec R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Favors Álvarez's striking and backs him over Njokuani. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 73.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 63.5%. Dern · to win | Dern · Dec R5 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Backs Dern's submission threat and expects her to beat Robertson. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 63.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 26.5%. Machado Garry · Dec | Makhachev · Dec R5 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Believes Garry's size, striking and cage work give him the edge and calls a decision win. Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 26.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Underdog credit earned: 0.00 — credit is earned only on a correct call. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 87.5%. Orolbai · to win | Wells · Sub R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Favors Orolbai's dominant matchup position over Wells. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 87.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
Gamrot vs. Salkilld
Event scorecard
- Winner 10 2
- Method 2 6
- Round 1 3
- Underdog 1
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Favourite call, market price 57.5%. Salkilld · KO/TKO | Salkilld · Sub R1 | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
Settles on Salkilld to get it done, moving from a decision call to a stoppage without naming a round. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 57.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 60.5%. Ferreira · KO/TKO | Ferreira · Dec | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
Expects Ferreira to stop Quarantillo in the first or second round, so no single round is recorded. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 60.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 87.5%. del Valle · KO/TKO · R1 | del Valle · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Hit | Hit | |
Reads del Valle as a heavy favourite with every incentive to chase a highlight finish early. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 87.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 79.5%. Miller · KO/TKO · R2 | Miller · KO/TKO R3 | Hit | Hit | Miss | |
Calls a second-round stoppage for Miller. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 79.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 29.5%. Lemos · Sub | Thainara · Dec | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Goes against Thainara, backing Lemos's hands and power against a grappler he still rates as unproven, and calls a guillotine in the first or second round. Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 29.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Underdog credit earned: 0.00 — credit is earned only on a correct call. | |||||
| Johns · to win | Johns · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Takes Johns without naming a method. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 65.0%. Sutherland · KO/TKO | Montanha · Sub R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Takes Sutherland to finish Montanha by knockout. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 65.0% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 59.5%. Nurgozhay · Dec | Nurgozhay · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
Takes Nurgozhay on the scorecards. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 59.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 72.5%. Asplund · KO/TKO · R2 | Asplund · Dec | Hit | Miss | Miss | |
Takes Asplund by second-round TKO. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 72.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 75.5%. Sousa · KO/TKO · R3 | Sousa · Dec | Hit | Miss | Miss | |
Settles on Sousa by third-round TKO after weighing the finish. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 75.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Miller · to win | Miller · Sub R2 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Takes Miller without naming a method. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 66.5%. Foro · KO/TKO | Foro · Dec | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
Takes Foro by knockout, hedging the round. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 66.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
Medic vs. Rodriguez
Event scorecard
- Winner 4 4
- Method 1 1
- Round 2
- Underdog 2
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Favourite call, market price 77.5%. Medić · KO/TKO · R1 | Medić · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Hit | Hit | |
Thinks Rodriguez's habit of lunging in and swinging from the waist walks him onto a Medic counter, and that Medic's body kicks plus his first-round finishing record end it early in front of a home crowd. “I'm going to go with Uros Medic getting a first round TKO win over Daniel Rodriguez.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 77.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 24.5%. Błachowicz · Dec | Stirling · KO/TKO R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Calls the odds wrong, arguing Blachowicz is still at the top of his game and too hard to catch on the chin, and that he out-jabs and out-low-kicks Stirling at range on short notice. Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 24.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Underdog credit earned: 0.00 — credit is earned only on a correct call. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 76.5%. Rakić · KO/TKO | Rakić · Dec R3 | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
Expects Rakic's size, movement and leg kicks to break down the plodding Tybura, then finish him on top after sprawling on a desperation takedown. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 76.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 58.5%. Valentin · to win | Valentin · Sub R1 | Hit | Not called | Hit | |
Says Todorovic is repeatedly KO-able, especially to elbows in tight and on clinch breaks with his chin up, and that Valentin is the nastier finisher with an early submission edge. “I'm going to go with Robert Valentin getting this one done by first round finish.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 58.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 73.5%. Cepo · KO/TKO | Urbina · KO/TKO R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Notes Urbina repeatedly gets dropped by big hooks on the chin, including in his loss to Medic, and that Cepo's right hook has finished four of his last five. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 73.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 23.5%. Elliott · Dec | Oliveira · KO/TKO R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Backs Elliott as a near 3-to-1 underdog on craft and experience, saying the green Oliveira has not seen entries like Elliott's takedown-to-knee-and-low-kick sequences. Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 23.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Underdog credit earned: 0.00 — credit is earned only on a correct call. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 69.5%. Klein · KO/TKO | Musayev · KO/TKO R2 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Thinks Klein is too sharp and has the reach to punish an aggressive opponent swinging early, catching him coming in with a counter. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 69.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 65.5%. Grad · to win | Grad · Sub R2 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Picks Grad as the explosive, athletic, physically bigger man who has multiple winning paths, striking or grappling, against a Buzukja coming off a bad knockout loss. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 65.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
Du Plessis vs. Usman
Event scorecard
- Winner 10 2
- Method 3 3
- Round 1 2
- Underdog 3
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Underdog call, market price 47.5%. Elliot · KO/TKO | Elliot · Dec | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
Picks Elliot as the larger, more physical fighter, expecting his grappling to keep him safe from Anderson's submission threats and his aggression to create a TKO. Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 47.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Underdog credit earned: 0.05 — (50% − 47.5%) ÷ 50%. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 83.5%. Barbosa · Sub | Barbosa · Sub R1 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Picks Barbosa's experience and tested level over Melisano's inexperience, calling a submission win. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 83.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 50.5%. Hines · KO/TKO | Harris · KO/TKO R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Takes Hines' greater experience and craft over Harris, calling a late TKO without a single-round call. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 50.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 88.5%. Coria · KO/TKO | Coria · Dec | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
Picks the bigger, more proven Coria, expecting his finishing ability to produce a TKO without a single-round call. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 88.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 41.5%. Franco · to win | Franco · KO/TKO R2 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Takes Franco because he has been competitive against stronger opposition than Rodrigues Jr. Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 41.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Underdog credit earned: 0.17 — (50% − 41.5%) ÷ 50%. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 60.5%. Ko · to win | Lebosnoyani · Dec | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Takes Ko on the strength of his grappling success against stronger reference opponents. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 60.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 44.5%. Delgado · to win | Delgado · Dec | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Picks Delgado's size, striking danger and damage over Bashi's early grappling threat. Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 44.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Underdog credit earned: 0.11 — (50% − 44.5%) ÷ 50%. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 64.9%. McMillen · KO/TKO · R2 | McMillen · KO/TKO R3 | Hit | Hit | Miss | |
Picks McMillen's pressure, reach and wrestling to wear Montes down for a second-round TKO. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 64.9% before the fight, from the pre-event sportsbook consensus frozen before the fight. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 81.5%. Kline · to win | Kline · Dec | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Takes Kline's size, reach and range striking to do more damage over three rounds. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 81.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 75.2%. Hooper · Sub · R1 | Hooper · Sub R1 | Hit | Hit | Hit | |
Picks Hooper to find the back after Ramirez's guillotine attempts fail, calling a late first-round submission. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 75.2% before the fight, from the pre-event sportsbook consensus frozen before the fight. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 74.8%. Duncan · to win | Duncan · Dec | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Takes Duncan's youth, activity and more varied striking to land more than Cannonier. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 74.8% before the fight, from the pre-event sportsbook consensus frozen before the fight. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 64.9%. Du Plessis · KO/TKO · R3 | Du Plessis · Dec | Hit | Miss | Miss | |
Picks Du Plessis' five-round pace, body and leg kicking, and youth to produce a third-round TKO over Usman. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 64.9% before the fight, from the pre-event sportsbook consensus frozen before the fight. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
UFC 329
McGregor vs. Holloway 2
Event scorecard
- Winner 12 1
- Method 9 3
- Round 3 1
- Underdog 2
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Favourite call, market price 71.5%. Holloway · KO/TKO | Holloway · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Gives McGregor the opening-round danger, but thinks the long layoff and fading pop make it hard for him to hold Holloway off. He expects Holloway's pressure, jab, body-head follow-ups and pace to take over late and force a stoppage. “I'm going to go with TKO.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 71.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 42.5%. Bautista · Dec | Bautista · Dec | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Thinks Bautista's physicality, cage pressure and wrestling optics are enough to win close rounds. He expects Sandhagen to be dangerous and creative, but not damaging enough to clearly outweigh Bautista's control and aggression on the judges' cards. “I think this is too much to overcome.” Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 42.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Underdog credit earned: 0.15 — (50% − 42.5%) ÷ 50%. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 68.5%. Kavanagh · KO/TKO · R1 | Royval · Sub R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Sees Kavanagh's speed, power and calf-kick threat as a bad early mix for Royval. Because Royval tends to keep his chin high and is coming off a knockout loss, he expects Kavanagh to find the hook openings quickly. “Getting this one done by KO in the first round.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 68.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 89.5%. Steveson · KO/TKO · R1 | Steveson · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Hit | Hit | |
Thinks Ellison is an undersized and inexperienced UFC heavyweight debut opponent for this spot. He expects Steveson's athleticism, wrestling threat and power to be enough for a quick TKO, while noting it would not prove top-level heavyweight readiness yet. “By TKO in the first round.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 89.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 53.5%. Whittaker · KO/TKO | Whittaker · KO/TKO R3 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Gives Krylov the power-and-swarm path, but thinks Whittaker is far too technical and composed if the fight stays in striking layers. He expects Whittaker's shot selection to punish Krylov's entries and produce a first- or second-round knockout. “KO first or second round over Krylov. Nasty finish.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 53.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 69.5%. Riley · KO/TKO | Riley · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Respects Kamaka as a live, well-rounded opponent, but thinks Riley's boxing advantage is too sharp. He expects Riley to read the kicks, answer with hands and find a knockout once he gets comfortable. “I'm going with KO. Luke Riley, first or second round over Kamaka.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 69.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 77.5%. Yañez · KO/TKO | Yañez · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Reads Garbrandt as a diminished version of himself whose confidence and willingness to engage are no longer reliable. He trusts Yanez's jab, boxing and composure to keep touching Garbrandt until the stoppage arrives. “I'm going with Cody Garbrandt losing by KO in the first or second round.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 77.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 55.5%. Gandra · KO/TKO · R1 | Gandra · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Hit | Hit | |
Trusts Gandra's power edge much more than Reese's durability. He sees Reese as hittable enough that Gandra can land clean before the fight reaches the later grappling-heavy phases that would make the matchup more complicated. “I'm going to go with Ryan Gandra KO in the first round.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 55.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 67.5%. Costa · KO/TKO · R2 | Costa · Sub R2 | Hit | Miss | Hit | |
Likes Alessandro Costa's recent body-shot finishing form and thinks Durden is vulnerable to exactly that kind of damage. He expects Costa's short, stocky frame to make the grappling difficult while his pressure creates a body-shot TKO. “Second round body shot TKO.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 67.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 85.5%. Basharat · Dec | Basharat · Dec | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Explicitly accounts for Garza stepping in on six days' notice. He expects Garza's size and danger to make it competitive, but sees Basharat's deeper UFC experience and MMA grappling as enough to win the final two rounds on the cards. “Getting this one done by a competitive decision where he wins the final two rounds.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 85.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 70.5%. Pinas · Dec | Pinas · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
Leans to Pinas' explosiveness and athleticism, with enough power to hurt Almeida and win key exchanges. He still expects Almeida to be durable enough to survive the scary moments and force a competitive decision. “I'll say decision. I'll weirdly say decision here.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 70.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 46.5%. Pimblett · Sub · R2 | Pimblett · Sub R1 | Hit | Hit | Miss | |
Backs Pimblett despite acknowledging Saint Denis' pressure and early danger. His final read is that Pimblett hurts Saint Denis on the feet first, then uses the scramble or knockdown sequence to finish by second-round submission. “Submission second round after hurting him on the feet.” Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 46.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Underdog credit earned: 0.07 — (50% − 46.5%) ÷ 50%. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 53.5%. Wang · KO/TKO | Wang · Dec | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
Sees Wang as the far better striker and thinks her improved defensive grappling keeps Cortez from banking enough control. Once Wang keeps enough exchanges at range, he expects her speed and punching to produce a finish. “To get this one done by TKO finish.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 53.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
UFC Freedom 250
Topuria vs. Gaethje
Event scorecard
- Winner 4 3
- Method 4
- Round 1 2
- Underdog 1
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Favourite call, market price 79.5%. Topuria · KO/TKO · R2 | Gaethje · KO/TKO R4 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Doesn't buy that Gaethje still has the one-shot power to put Topuria away. Sees Topuria hurt him, start the attack, and finish inside two. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 79.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 52.5%. Pereira · KO/TKO · R3 | Gane · KO/TKO R2 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Gane ("Gan") stings him early and may win a round, but Pereira's superior striking technique and accumulating low kicks/body shots wear Gane down until he crumbles to the cage pressure. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 52.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 77.5%. O'Malley · KO/TKO | O'Malley · KO/TKO R2 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Zahabi ("Amy/Amian Zahabi") lacks the sudden power or grappling to threaten O'Malley ("Shaun Ali/Omali"), who will be too there-to-be-hit and get clipped for a vintage highlight KO in the first or second round. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 77.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 79.5%. Hokit · KO/TKO · R1 | Hokit · KO/TKO R2 | Hit | Hit | Miss | |
Hokit ("Josh Hockett") puts a crazy pace on a fading, quit-prone Lewis, dominating top position and ground-and-pound for a first-round TKO crumble. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 79.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 81.0%. Ruffy · KO/TKO · R1 | Ruffy · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Hit | Hit | |
Chandler no longer has the strength game to control Ruffy ("Mauricio Huffy"), who finishes him violently on the feet. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 81.0% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 24.5%. Daukaus · Sub | Nickal · KO/TKO R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Daukaus ("Kyle Dorcas") is dangerous on the feet, breaks Nickal down with strikes and clinch work, and eventually catches him in a D'Arce ("dash") choke off a lazy takedown. Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 24.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Underdog credit earned: 0.00 — credit is earned only on a correct call. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 59.5%. Lopes · KO/TKO · R1 | Lopes · KO/TKO R2 | Hit | Hit | Miss | |
Lopes ("Diego Lopez") is better and made a career of catching pressure fighters coming in, so he survives Garcia's early rush and finishes him with ground-and-pound in the first round. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 59.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
UFC 328
Event scorecard
- Winner 2 2
- MethodCalls the winner, not the method
- RoundCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog 1
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Favourite call, market price 80.5%. Chimaev · to win | Strickland · Dec | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Backs Chimaev despite openly wanting Strickland to win — doesn't trust Strickland's takedown defence to keep him off the mat. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 80.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 60.5%. Taira · to win | Van · KO/TKO R5 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Sees Taira's size and grappling slow Van's pace and finish him inside two or three rounds. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 60.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 56.5%. Volkov · to win | Volkov · Dec | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Loves the matchup but sides with the more proven Volkov over Cortes-Acosta. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 56.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 37.5%. Brady · to win | Brady · Dec | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Brady's high-level grappling exploits the gaps in Buckley's wrestling and takes over. Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 37.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Underdog credit earned: 0.25 — (50% − 37.5%) ÷ 50%. | |||||
| No pick | Green · Sub R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Talks himself in a circle — first leans “Bobby Green over Jeremy Stephens by TKO in the second … or nah, decision,” then closes “I’m going to go with Jeremy Stephens.” No clear pick, so we log no call. | |||||
UFC 327
Event scorecard
- Winner 3 2
- Method 2 1
- Round 1
- Underdog 1 2
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Underdog call, market price 49.5%. Prochazka · to win | Ulberg · KO/TKO R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Agonises over it but switches back to Jiri — his pressure and improvement win out in a stylistically tough fight. Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 49.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Underdog credit earned: 0.00 — credit is earned only on a correct call. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 32.0%. Costa · KO/TKO · R2 | Costa · KO/TKO R3 | Hit | Hit | Miss | |
A generational Costa masterclass — body kicks and shots for a second-round TKO. Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 32.0% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Underdog credit earned: 0.36 — (50% − 32.0%) ÷ 50%. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 48.5%. Blaydes · KO/TKO | Hokit · Dec | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Blaydes is too composed and experienced; he weathers the pressure and finishes. Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 48.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Underdog credit earned: 0.00 — credit is earned only on a correct call. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 60.5%. Reyes · KO/TKO | Reyes · Dec | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
Walker starts an exchange and Reyes counters with his finishing instincts. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 60.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 53.0%. Swanson · KO/TKO | Swanson · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Swanson still has it — a big highlight KO in round one or two. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 53.0% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
UFC Seattle
Event scorecard
- Winner 3 3
- Method 2
- Round 1
- Underdog 1 1
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Favourite call, market price 56.5%. Adesanya · KO/TKO · R3 | Pyfer · KO/TKO R2 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Adesanya is levels above on the feet, chews up the legs and catches Pyfer coming in — a third-round TKO. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 56.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 63.5%. Barber · Dec | Grasso · KO/TKO R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Barber's toughness and density, and Grasso's recent stinkers, edge a close 29-28 decision. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 63.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 88.5%. Chiesa · to win | Chiesa · Sub R1 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Chiesa's grappling, size and momentum carry him past a fading Price. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 88.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 74.5%. Douglas · KO/TKO · R1 | Douglas · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Hit | Hit | |
Douglas's heat-seeking power exploits Erosa's chin for a first-round KO. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 74.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 43.5%. Belgaroui · KO/TKO | Belgaroui · KO/TKO R3 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Shocked he's an underdog — Belgaroui's sharper stand-up gets the TKO. Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 43.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Underdog credit earned: 0.13 — (50% − 43.5%) ÷ 50%. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 36.5%. Nelson · to win | McKinney · KO/TKO R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Reverse psychology — he always picks McKinney to win and it backfires, so he takes Nelson. Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 36.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Underdog credit earned: 0.00 — credit is earned only on a correct call. | |||||
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