UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman  18 Jul 2026 · Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, US

Alden Coria defeats Stewart Nicoll by unanimous decision

Win Alden Coria 13-3-0
Loss Stewart Nicoll 8-4-0
Unanimous decision

Round 3 · 5:00

Coria vs Nicoll — Flyweight · UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman

Predictions summary

What happened

The result, the defining moments, and what the verdict means.

Coria took the striking exchanges clearly in round one while defending Nicoll's wrestling.

Every Nicoll grappling attempt ended with Coria escaping and countering with significant strikes.

Coria kept control of the scrambles through all three rounds to cruise to the decision.

Pre-fight analysis — how we saw it going in

Case for Coria

Coria is the cleaner, more defensively sound fighter and trending up — 4-0 in his last five (one no-contest), with a debut win over Alessandro Costa, the same man who stopped Nicoll. His 70% striking defense and boxing should keep him out of the wild exchanges Nicoll needs.

Case for Nicoll

Nicoll's only path is chaos and finishing — 88% of his wins come inside the distance, and if he can turn this into a scramble he is live. But he is 0-3 in the UFC and coming off a stoppage, so he must find the finish before Coria's craft banks the rounds.

What We Were Watching For

  • Shared Costa read: Coria beat Alessandro Costa; Nicoll was stopped by him — the clearest form line on the card.
  • Coria's defense against Nicoll's finishing bursts: can Nicoll drag him into the mud, or does Coria box from range?
  • Nicoll's UFC skid: 0-3 in the Octagon — is the regional finishing game still there against better competition?
  • Rounds vs stoppage: Coria wants a clean decision, Nicoll needs an early finish — the pace tells you who is winning.
Records & career stats
Coria vs Nicoll
Coria Nicoll
  1. OutputSig. strikes landed / min 4.05 3.01
  2. Striking def.Striking defense 70% 54%
  3. DurabilitySig. strikes absorbed / min 2.21 4.81
  4. Takedown def.Takedown defense 56% 33%
  5. FinishingFinish rate 69% 88%
12-3-0
Record
8-3-0
Source pending
Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
—
United States
Nationality
Australia
28
Age
31
5′8″173 cm
Height — Coria leads
5′5″165 cm
67″170 cm
Reach — Coria leads
65″166 cm
Not published
StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
Orthodox
69%
Finish rateFinish % — Nicoll leadsFinish rateThe share of a fighter’s wins that ended inside the distance — by KO/TKO or submission — rather than going to the judges’ scorecards. Higher means more finishes.
88%
5
Wins by KO/TKOKO wins — Coria leads
4
4
Wins by submissionSub wins — Coria leads
3
4.05
Sig. strikes landed / minStr / min — Coria leadsSignificant strikes landed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter lands for every minute of fight time — a read on striking output and pace. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
3.01
2.21
Sig. strikes absorbed / minAbs / min — Coria leadsSignificant strikes absorbed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter takes for every minute of fight time. Lower is better — it means they get hit less often. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
4.81
70%
Striking defenseStrike def. — Coria leadsStriking defenseThe percentage of opponents’ significant strikes that do not land — strikes slipped, blocked or evaded. Higher is better. Not the same as striking accuracy, which counts your own strikes that land. From UFC/FightMetric.
54%
56%
Takedown defenseTD def. — Coria leadsTakedown defenseThe percentage of opponents’ takedown attempts that are stuffed. Higher means harder to put on the mat. From UFC/FightMetric.
33%
13:36
Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
10:39
4oz Fight Club, Aztlan Boxing
Team
Team Compton Training Centre

Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Record is as of fight night; career stats, recent form and win totals are the latest on file and may include this fight. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.

Videos

Outcome footage, post-fight coverage, and the pre-fight lead-up.

After the fight

Comments

Comments are currently closed while we finish moderation and privacy controls.

Who Called It?

How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.

FightIQ
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Alden Coria · Dec

Fight result: Alden Coria · Decision

FightIQ's public record lists Alden Coria as its pick over Stewart Nicoll.

Track record: winner called in 159 of 227 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 70.0% (159 hit, 68 miss, across 227 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 39.9% (59 hit, 89 miss, across 148 method-scored calls on 227 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 55.0% (11 hit, 9 miss, across 20 underdog calls on 227 resolved calls).

View full track record (227 calls)
AJ Devito
Hear it — 14:39 AJ Devito on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Alden Coria · KO/TKO

Fight result: Alden Coria · Decision

Calls Coria by knockout, expecting his straight shots to break through against Nicoll.

“out yet. I will say all in Cora by KO is going to be like my official read”

Track record: winner called in 175 of 264 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 66.3% (175 hit, 89 miss, across 264 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 58.7% (61 hit, 43 miss, across 104 method-scored calls on 264 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 77.8% (7 hit, 2 miss, across 9 round-scored calls on 264 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 36.4% (12 hit, 21 miss, across 33 underdog calls on 264 resolved calls).

View full track record (264 calls)
The MMA Guru
Hear it — 8:58 The MMA Guru on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Alden Coria · KO/TKO

Fight result: Alden Coria · Decision

Picks the bigger, more proven Coria, expecting his finishing ability to produce a TKO without a single-round call.

“I'm going to go with Alden Corriea. I reckon he wins this one by TKO”

Track record: winner called in 213 of 322 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 66.1% (213 hit, 109 miss, across 322 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 53.4% (62 hit, 54 miss, across 116 method-scored calls on 322 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 35.9% (14 hit, 25 miss, across 39 round-scored calls on 322 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 47.4% (18 hit, 20 miss, across 38 underdog calls on 322 resolved calls).

View full track record (322 calls)
JakeGerberMMA
Hear it — 9:40 JakeGerberMMA on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Alden Coria

Fight result: Alden Coria · Decision

Takes Coria's better boxing and body work to separate him from Nicoll.

“two KO. If not, outscores him easily. 30-27 decision.”

Track record: winner called in 101 of 154 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 65.6% (101 hit, 53 miss, across 154 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 60.0% (39 hit, 26 miss, across 65 method-scored calls on 154 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 35.7% (5 hit, 9 miss, across 14 round-scored calls on 154 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (4 hit, 8 miss, across 12 underdog calls on 154 resolved calls).

View full track record (154 calls)
DFS By The Numbers
Hear it — 9:43 DFS By The Numbers on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Alden Coria

Fight result: Alden Coria · Decision

Rates Coria as a clear level above Nicoll in pressure, output and wrestling resistance.

“Olden Korea here. I think it's a pretty easy match up for him. It's his easiest”

Track record: winner called in 112 of 173 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 64.7% (112 hit, 61 miss, across 173 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 61.0% (61 hit, 39 miss, across 100 method-scored calls on 173 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 38.3% (18 hit, 29 miss, across 47 round-scored calls on 173 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 36.4% (8 hit, 14 miss, across 22 underdog calls on 173 resolved calls).

View full track record (173 calls)
Half The Battle
Hear it — 38:20 Half The Battle on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Alden Coria

Fight result: Alden Coria · Decision

Takes Coria to dominate Nicoll, citing Coria's clear standing in the matchup and Nicoll's lack of UFC success.

“why Korea's minus 1,000 in this spot. I think Alden Korea's going to come out”

Track record: winner called in 58 of 109 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 53.2% (58 hit, 51 miss, across 109 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 71.4% (10 hit, 4 miss, across 14 method-scored calls on 109 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 66.7% (2 hit, 1 miss, across 3 round-scored calls on 109 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 21.4% (6 hit, 22 miss, across 28 underdog calls on 109 resolved calls).

View full track record (109 calls)
FIGHT//AI
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Stewart Nicoll

Fight result: Alden Coria · Decision

FIGHT//AI’s replay record preserves its original live winner selection: Stewart Nicoll.

Track record: winner called in 49 of 153 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 32.0% (49 hit, 104 miss, across 153 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 50.0% (1 hit, 1 miss, across 2 method-scored calls on 153 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 20.0% (20 hit, 80 miss, across 100 underdog calls on 153 resolved calls).

View full track record (153 calls)

Analyst picks: FightIQ Hit; AJ Devito Hit; The MMA Guru Hit; JakeGerberMMA Hit; DFS By The Numbers Hit; Half The Battle Hit; FIGHT//AI Miss.

6 of 7 nailed it.

Chart: selected analyst picks, not a win probability. Pill badge: Winner hit rate (total scored picks before this event).

The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.

AI Predictions

This fight is settled. Eligible pre-fight AI forecasts load when this page is online.

Market Odds

No current consensus line is saved on this page.

Not betting advice · 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-MY-RESET

Independent fan-made fight recap. Not affiliated with, endorsed by, or sponsored by the UFC or any other MMA promotion. Analysis is editorial opinion, not betting advice. Fighter names and records are used for commentary. Image credits · Methodology · Privacy · Terms.