UFC betting channel publishing full-card breakdowns, predictions and prop analysis.
DFS By The Numbers on YouTube ↗Track Record
Derived from every pick we've logged and verified — shown with its denominator, never a bare percentage. Draws and no-contests fall outside it. How Track Record works.
Called 32 of 47 resolved picks
13 of 32 hits also matched the method.
Call Profile
How this analyst's logged calls performed: winner, stated detail, and frozen pre-event underdog context.
23 calls included both method and round.
On the Card
DFS By The Numbers's picks for UFC Fight Night — tap a row for the reasoning and the source clip.
Upcoming Ankalaev vs Guskov PickAnkalaev · Decision DFS By The Numbers: picks Ankalaev · Decision for Ankalaev vs Guskov — upcoming.
Takes Ankalaev to use the cleaner, more defensively sound game and clinch/ground control over five rounds against short-notice Guskov.
Upcoming Erceg vs Temirov PickErceg · Decision DFS By The Numbers: picks Erceg · Decision for Erceg vs Temirov — upcoming.
Takes Erceg as the better minute-winner through striking, grappling and cardio if he avoids Temirov's early power.
Upcoming Ponzinibbio vs Patterson PickPatterson · KO/TKO · R1 DFS By The Numbers: picks Patterson · KO/TKO · R1 for Ponzinibbio vs Patterson — upcoming.
Expects Patterson's power to catch the forward-moving Ponzinibbio for a first-round knockout.
Upcoming Kuniev vs Fortune PickKuniev · Decision DFS By The Numbers: picks Kuniev · Decision for Kuniev vs Fortune — upcoming.
Backs Kuniev's cardio, volume and control of where the fight takes place over three rounds.
Upcoming Dulatov vs Turman PickDulatov · KO/TKO · R1 DFS By The Numbers: picks Dulatov · KO/TKO · R1 for Dulatov vs Turman — upcoming.
Calls Dulatov to exploit Turman's long layoff and defensive vulnerability for a first-round knockout.
Upcoming Bonfim vs Sola PickSola · KO/TKO · R3 DFS By The Numbers: picks Sola · KO/TKO · R3 for Bonfim vs Sola — upcoming.
Takes Sola's cardio and pressure to break Bonfim down for a late knockout.
Upcoming Walker vs Petersen PickWalker · Sub · R1 DFS By The Numbers: picks Walker · Sub · R1 for Walker vs Petersen — upcoming.
Calls Walker's familiar heel-hook route for a first-round submission.
Upcoming Tuchalov vs Ribeiro PickTuchalov · Sub · R1 DFS By The Numbers: picks Tuchalov · Sub · R1 for Tuchalov vs Ribeiro — upcoming.
Expects Tuchalov to exploit Ribeiro's defensive grappling weakness for a first-round submission.
Upcoming Zaynukov vs Rzepecki PickZaynukov · Decision DFS By The Numbers: picks Zaynukov · Decision for Zaynukov vs Rzepecki — upcoming.
Backs Zaynukov's broader striking and grappling tools to carry a decision over the durable Rzepecki.
Upcoming Davis vs Aliev PickAliev · Decision DFS By The Numbers: picks Aliev · Decision for Davis vs Aliev — upcoming.
Takes Aliev to bank takedowns and control against Davis over three rounds.
Upcoming Jacoby vs Said PickJacoby · KO/TKO · R1 DFS By The Numbers: picks Jacoby · KO/TKO · R1 for Jacoby vs Said — upcoming.
Favors Jacoby's higher-level experience, kickboxing, kicks, volume and cardio over Said's puncher's chance.
Upcoming Gibson vs Hussein PickHussein · Sub · R2 DFS By The Numbers: picks Hussein · Sub · R2 for Gibson vs Hussein — upcoming.
Backs Hussein's power, wrestling and grappling against a 38-year-old Gibson he sees as hittable, slowing down and prone to ground mistakes.
Resolved Calls
What was predicted, what actually happened, and whether it hit.
Hit Barbosa vs Melisano DFS By The Numbers: predicted Barbosa · to win for Barbosa vs Melisano. Actual Barbosa · Sub R1. Result: Hit.
Takes Barbosa to use her physical grappling edge against the short-notice newcomer.
Hit Bashi vs Delgado DFS By The Numbers: predicted Delgado · to win for Bashi vs Delgado. Actual Delgado · Dec. Result: Hit.
Leans Delgado because his size and striking should offset Bashi's grappling path.
Hit Cannonier vs Duncan DFS By The Numbers: predicted Duncan · to win for Cannonier vs Duncan. Actual Duncan · Dec. Result: Hit.
Takes Duncan on durability and finishing upside against the accumulated damage on Cannonier.
Hit Coria vs Nicoll DFS By The Numbers: predicted Coria · to win for Coria vs Nicoll. Actual Coria · Dec. Result: Hit.
Rates Coria as a clear level above Nicoll in pressure, output and wrestling resistance.
Hit Du Plessis vs Usman DFS By The Numbers: predicted Du Plessis · to win for Du Plessis vs Usman. Actual Du Plessis · Dec. Result: Hit.
Backs Du Plessis to produce the bigger striking moments and doubts Usman can sustain control.
Miss Harris vs Hines DFS By The Numbers: predicted Hines · to win for Harris vs Hines. Actual Harris · KO/TKO R1. Result: Miss.
Takes Hines on his UFC experience, cardio and more reliable all-around game.
Hit Hooper vs Ramirez DFS By The Numbers: predicted Hooper · to win for Hooper vs Ramirez. Actual Hooper · Sub R1. Result: Hit.
Takes Hooper if he uses the grappling advantage rather than lingering in striking exchanges.
Miss McMillen vs Montes DFS By The Numbers: predicted Montes · to win for McMillen vs Montes. Actual McMillen · KO/TKO R3. Result: Miss.
Takes Montes because one grappling exchange can expose his proven front-choke game.
Hit Ricci vs Kline DFS By The Numbers: predicted Kline · to win for Ricci vs Kline. Actual Kline · Dec. Result: Hit.
Takes Kline as the stronger all-around prospect, particularly in the striking exchanges.
Miss Rodrigues Jr. vs Franco DFS By The Numbers: predicted Rodrigues Jr. · to win for Rodrigues Jr. vs Franco. Actual Franco · KO/TKO R2. Result: Miss.
Takes Rodrigues based on the more convincing striking, power and cardio from the regional tape.
Miss Cortez vs Wang DFS By The Numbers: predicted Cortez · Decision for Cortez vs Wang. Actual Wang · Dec. Result: Miss.
Backs Cortez to win the grappling exchanges. He argues Wang Cong is most vulnerable on the mat, while Cortez can close distance, get takedowns and bank enough control time to take a decision.
“Give me Cortez. Cortez by decision.”
Perfect Gandra vs Reese DFS By The Numbers: predicted Gandra · KO/TKO · R1 for Gandra vs Reese. Actual Gandra · KO/TKO R1. Result: Perfect.
Picks Gandra to force a short, violent fight. He expects Gandra to pressure forward, stuff Reese's takedown attempts and hurt him with power before the matchup can settle into a longer contest.
Hit Garbrandt vs Yañez DFS By The Numbers: predicted Yañez · KO/TKO · R2 for Garbrandt vs Yañez. Actual Yañez · KO/TKO R1. Result: Hit.
Leans to Yanez because Garbrandt has become low-volume and chin-conscious. He expects Yanez's forward pressure, boxing volume and power to eventually find Cody in the second round.
Hit McGregor vs Holloway DFS By The Numbers: predicted Holloway · KO/TKO · R2 for McGregor vs Holloway. Actual Holloway · KO/TKO R1. Result: Hit.
Gives McGregor only a brief early puncher's chance after the long layoff. He expects Holloway's pressure and volume to take over quickly, wearing McGregor down and finishing him in round two.
“I'm going Max Holloway. Second round KO.”
Hit Pimblett vs Saint Denis DFS By The Numbers: predicted Pimblett · Sub · R2 for Pimblett vs Saint Denis. Actual Pimblett · Sub R1. Result: Hit.
Backs Pimblett as the more durable and more opportunistic finisher in chaotic exchanges. He expects Saint Denis to leave necks or arms exposed while forcing grappling scrambles, giving Pimblett a second-round submission opening.
Perfect Pinas vs Almeida DFS By The Numbers: predicted Pinas · KO/TKO · R1 for Pinas vs Almeida. Actual Pinas · KO/TKO R1. Result: Perfect.
Takes Pinas to be the first fighter to knock Almeida out. He acknowledges Almeida has never been stopped by strikes, but believes Pinas' power and aggression can break that trend early.
Hit Riley vs Kamaka DFS By The Numbers: predicted Riley · Decision for Riley vs Kamaka. Actual Riley · KO/TKO R1. Result: Hit.
Takes Riley because his shots should be the more damaging and eye-catching work. He respects Kamaka's toughness and expects him to survive all three rounds, but not to outscore Riley's power.
“I'm going Luke Riley. I'll go damage-based, power-based decision.”
Miss Royval vs Kavanagh DFS By The Numbers: predicted Kavanagh · KO/TKO · R2 for Royval vs Kavanagh. Actual Royval · Sub R3. Result: Miss.
Trusts Kavanagh's boxing and power against Royval's hittable style. He thinks Royval's chin will be there to touch repeatedly, giving Kavanagh enough opportunities to land the finishing shot.
Perfect Sandhagen vs Bautista DFS By The Numbers: predicted Bautista · Decision for Sandhagen vs Bautista. Actual Bautista · Dec. Result: Perfect.
Calls it extremely close but sides with Bautista's wrestling, grappling and takedown threat. He likes Sandhagen's striking, yet thinks Bautista can bank enough control and blunt enough output to edge the cards.
Perfect Steveson vs Ellison DFS By The Numbers: predicted Steveson · KO/TKO · R1 for Steveson vs Ellison. Actual Steveson · KO/TKO R1. Result: Perfect.
Views Ellison as badly overmatched once Steveson wrestles. He points to Ellison's defensive gaps and cardio concerns, expecting Steveson's Olympic-level grappling and top pressure to produce a fast stoppage.
Hit Whittaker vs Krylov DFS By The Numbers: predicted Whittaker · KO/TKO · R2 for Whittaker vs Krylov. Actual Whittaker · KO/TKO R3. Result: Hit.
Still trusts Whittaker as the sharper striker at 205. He thinks Krylov has moved away from the wrestling that made him dangerous and now gives Whittaker enough clean striking looks to finish him in round two.
Hit Abdullayev vs Nascimento DFS By The Numbers: predicted Abdullayev · to win for Abdullayev vs Nascimento. Actual Abdullayev · KO/TKO R3. Result: Hit.
DFS leans Abdullayev because he is the natural welterweight, the local-side fighter, and has the physicality to survive Nascimento's pocket exchanges before finding top control or ground-and-pound.
- Flags Nascimento fighting again on a quick turnaround
- Calls the bout a low-confidence prospect fight
Perfect Magomedov vs Oleksiejczuk DFS By The Numbers: predicted Magomedov · Sub for Magomedov vs Oleksiejczuk. Actual Magomedov · Sub R1. Result: Perfect.
DFS ultimately picks Abus by submission, seeing his wrestling and grappling as the clearest route even though Oleksiejczuk's pressure makes the under interesting.
Perfect Aliskerov vs Ferreira DFS By The Numbers: predicted Aliskerov · Decision for Aliskerov vs Ferreira. Actual Aliskerov · Dec R3. Result: Perfect.
DFS takes Aliskerov by decision, expecting him to choose grappling rather than trade with Ferreira and use more ways to win over three rounds.
Hit Almabayev vs Johnson DFS By The Numbers: predicted Almabayev · Decision for Almabayev vs Johnson. Actual Almabayev · Sub R3. Result: Hit.
DFS is tired of trying to solve Johnson fights and backs Almabayev's wrestling to expose Johnson's grappling hole over three rounds.
Perfect Donchenko vs Berggren DFS By The Numbers: predicted Donchenko · KO/TKO · R2 for Donchenko vs Berggren. Actual Donchenko · KO/TKO R2. Result: Perfect.
DFS expects Donchenko's elbows and danger in exchanges to catch Berggren and finish him in the second round.
- Berggren has not been knocked out before
- Donchenko has the heavier damage tools
Miss Fiziev vs Torres DFS By The Numbers: predicted Torres · KO/TKO for Fiziev vs Torres. Actual Fiziev · KO/TKO R2. Result: Miss.
DFS picks Torres, reading the career trajectories in opposite directions and expecting Torres to land the bigger shot while Fiziev is still vulnerable from recent damage.
Perfect Hasanov vs Nolan DFS By The Numbers: predicted Hasanov · Decision for Hasanov vs Nolan. Actual Hasanov · Dec R3. Result: Perfect.
DFS goes with Hasanov in a greasy decision, siding with the hometown fighter's control path despite respecting Nolan's power.
Perfect Magomedov vs Pereira DFS By The Numbers: predicted Magomedov · Decision for Magomedov vs Pereira. Actual Magomedov · Dec R3. Result: Perfect.
DFS takes Shara by decision in his lowest-confidence pick, mostly fading Pereira's current cardio, urgency and recent form.
Perfect Matsumoto vs Almakhan DFS By The Numbers: predicted Matsumoto · Decision for Matsumoto vs Almakhan. Actual Matsumoto · Dec R3. Result: Perfect.
DFS prefers Matsumoto by decision behind pressure, volume, cardio, and wrestling looks if his chin holds up over fifteen minutes.
- Matsumoto can mix takedowns
- Almakhan needs the big power moment
Miss Ofli vs Reyes DFS By The Numbers: predicted Reyes · KO/TKO for Ofli vs Reyes. Actual Ofli · Sub R1. Result: Miss.
DFS takes Reyes by knockout, arguing Ofli is hittable and Reyes brings the more dangerous finishing threat on the feet.
Miss Ruziboev vs Pulyaev DFS By The Numbers: predicted Pulyaev · Decision for Ruziboev vs Pulyaev. Actual Ruziboev · Sub R1. Result: Miss.
DFS takes Pulyaev as an upset decision, expecting him to make the fight ugly at range and survive Ruziboev's dangerous moments.
Miss Sadykhov vs Camilo DFS By The Numbers: predicted Sadykhov · KO/TKO · R2 for Sadykhov vs Camilo. Actual Camilo · KO/TKO R1. Result: Miss.
DFS expects Sadykhov to push Camilo until the gas tank breaks, then knock him out in the second round in a fight-of-the-night style brawl.
Hit Yakhyaev vs Walker DFS By The Numbers: predicted Yakhyaev · Sub · R1 for Yakhyaev vs Walker. Actual Yakhyaev · KO/TKO R1. Result: Hit.
DFS picks Yakhyaev to win quickly by first-round submission, framing Walker as a favorable matchup for Yakhyaev's early grappling.
Miss Amosov vs Álvarez DFS By The Numbers: predicted Álvarez · KO/TKO for Amosov vs Álvarez. Actual Amosov · Sub R2. Result: Miss.
DFS likes Alvarez as a live dog and picks the finish, arguing his improved takedown defense and knockout threat give him the higher-upside path.
Miss Chimaev vs Strickland DFS By The Numbers: predicted Chimaev · Sub · R1 for Chimaev vs Strickland. Actual Strickland · Dec. Result: Miss.
He expects Chimaev to wrestle immediately, force Strickland into defensive scrambles, and find the back before the fight can settle into a long striking match.
“So I'm going Hamzat Chimaev. I'm going to take him to win this fight by first round submission.”
Hit Dawson vs Rębecki DFS By The Numbers: predicted Dawson · KO/TKO · R3 for Dawson vs Rębecki. Actual Dawson · Sub R3. Result: Hit.
DFS leans Dawson, expecting takedowns and top control to exhaust Rebecki and potentially produce a late ground-and-pound finish.
Perfect Gautier vs Diaz DFS By The Numbers: predicted Gautier · KO/TKO for Gautier vs Diaz. Actual Gautier · KO/TKO R2. Result: Perfect.
DFS expects Gautier to regain hype against an opponent who will come forward enough to be hit, with a finish the likeliest outcome.
Hit Green vs Stephens DFS By The Numbers: predicted Green · Decision for Green vs Stephens. Actual Green · Sub R1. Result: Hit.
He gives Stephens some one-shot danger, but expects Green's cleaner minute-winning boxing and greater current activity to carry a points win.
“For me it's Green and I think it's Green probably by decision.”
Miss Kopylov vs Tulio DFS By The Numbers: predicted Tulio · Decision for Kopylov vs Tulio. Actual Kopylov · Dec R3. Result: Miss.
DFS takes Tulio by decision, citing volume, cage-pushing and grappling upside against a Kopylov who has struggled with pressure.
Miss Miller vs Gordon DFS By The Numbers: predicted Gordon · Decision for Miller vs Gordon. Actual Miller · Sub R1. Result: Miss.
DFS takes Gordon on the scorecards, saying he should be the minute-winner wherever the fight goes unless Miller lands an early finish.
Perfect Ochoa vs Carpenter DFS By The Numbers: predicted Ochoa · Decision for Ochoa vs Carpenter. Actual Ochoa · Dec R3. Result: Perfect.
DFS leans Ochoa by decision because his damage, bigger moments and offensive tools should outweigh Carpenter's takedown control.
Hit Sabatini vs Gomis DFS By The Numbers: predicted Sabatini · Sub · R2 for Sabatini vs Gomis. Actual Sabatini · Dec R3. Result: Hit.
DFS takes Sabatini by second-round submission, arguing Gomis has been put in bad grappling spots and Sabatini's neck attacks are much more dangerous.
Hit Susurkaev vs Santos DFS By The Numbers: predicted Susurkaev · Decision for Susurkaev vs Santos. Actual Susurkaev · Sub R3. Result: Hit.
DFS says this should be Susurkaev because he is better everywhere, but expects a decision if he coasts and plays around instead of forcing a finish.
Miss Van vs Taira DFS By The Numbers: predicted Taira · Sub · R2 for Van vs Taira. Actual Van · KO/TKO R5. Result: Miss.
He sees the fight turning on grappling control: if Taira can get his wrestling going and force back-take sequences, Van's boxing edge never has time to matter.
“Give me Tatsuro Taira. I'll take Taira to win this fight by second round submission.”
Perfect Volkov vs Cortes-Acosta DFS By The Numbers: predicted Volkov · Decision for Volkov vs Cortes-Acosta. Actual Volkov · Dec. Result: Perfect.
He thinks Cortes-Acosta needs a knockout to win, while Volkov's size, output and broader skill set carry the minutes if he stays disciplined.
“Give me Volkov to win this fight by decision.”
Miss Prochazka vs Ulberg DFS By The Numbers: predicted Prochazka · KO/TKO · R2 for Prochazka vs Ulberg. Actual Ulberg · KO/TKO R1. Result: Miss.
He expects Ulberg to look competitive early, but sees Prochazka's pressure and durability flipping the fight once Jiri starts marching him down in round two.
“I'll take Jiri Prochazka to win this fight by second round knockout.”
Watch all of DFS By The Numbers's video picks in the library