"A lifetime of work. I put so much of my life into this sport because I love it." After more than two years away from the Octagon, Brady Hiestand made his comeback in a big way at #UFCVegas121 Prelim Results ➡️ https://t.co/PrGJB0jNWF Scorecards ➡️ https://t.co/5t667X4q4Q
View video on X ↗Brady Hiestand defeats Rinya Nakamura by Submission
Submission · rear-naked choke
Round 2 · 4:07
Hiestand vs Nakamura — Bantamweight · UFC Fight Night
Predictions summary
Analyst Picks
(1) 4%
96% (23)
AI Predictions
32%
68%
Market OddsComing soonNo forecast publishedUnavailable right nowBook prices available in Market
Checking latest live market odds.
What happened
The result, the defining moments, and what the verdict means.
Hiestand pressed forward through Nakamura's early attacks and repeatedly made the fight physical.
After working through Nakamura's front-headlock and scramble attempts, Hiestand took the back and secured control.
Hiestand finished the rear-naked choke at 4:07 of round two for the official submission win.
- Official UFC resultsUFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs Barcelos prelim results
Pre-fight analysis — how we saw it going in
Case for Hiestand
Hiestand is unbeaten in three straight since his only skid, with a finish or clean decision in each, and lands 4.80 takedowns per fight of his own. He and Nakamura share a common opponent — Hiestand beat Fernie Garcia by decision in November 2022, and Nakamura beat the same opponent by decision less than a year later — so his route is to force the wrestling exchanges himself rather than let a fellow wrestler dictate where this fight happens.
Case for Nakamura
Nakamura's only loss in eleven professional fights was a decision, and six of his ten wins have come by knockout, several inside the first round during his regional run. His most recent win, a first-round TKO of Nathan Fletcher, came off a body kick and punches rather than a takedown, so his route is to prove the wrestler label doesn't limit him standing while denying Hiestand's own 4.80-takedown pace.
What We Were Watching For
- Whether Nakamura's wrestling credentials or Hiestand's own 4.80 takedowns-per-fight average control where the fight happens.
- Whether Hiestand's 43% takedown defense holds up against a fighter UFC lists as a Wrestler.
- How each fighter fares having both already beaten the same opponent, Fernie Garcia, by decision within a year of each other.
- Whether Nakamura's finishing rate (six knockouts in ten wins) or Hiestand's own recent finish (a third-round submission of Garrett Armfield) decides it early.
Records & career stats
- 9-2-0
- Record
- 10-1-0
- —
- Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
- —
- United States
- Nationality
- Japan
- 25
- Age
- 31
- —
- StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
- —
- —
- Finish rateFinish %Finish rateThe share of a fighter’s wins that ended inside the distance — by KO/TKO or submission — rather than going to the judges’ scorecards. Higher means more finishes.
- 70%
- 14:03
- Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
- 07:41
- Sik-Jitsu Mixed Martial Arts
- Team
- American Top Team
Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Record is as of fight night; career stats, recent form and win totals are the latest on file and may include this fight. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.
Videos
Outcome footage, post-fight coverage, and the pre-fight lead-up.
Comments
Who Called It?
How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.
(1) 4%
WHiestand
96% (23)
NakamuraL
Josh Schonwald
Current pick evidence
Picked: Brady Hiestand
Fight result: Brady Hiestand · Submission
Josh Schonwald picks Brady Hiestand.
Track record: winner called in 6 of 15 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 40.0% (6 hit, 9 miss, across 15 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 14.3% (1 hit, 6 miss, across 7 underdog calls on 15 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 40.0% 6 9
- Method AccuracyCalls the winner, not the method
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 14.3% 1 6
FightIQ
Current pick evidence
Picked: Rinya Nakamura · Dec
Fight result: Brady Hiestand · Submission
FightIQ's public record lists Rinya Nakamura as its pick over Brady Hiestand.
Track record: winner called in 159 of 227 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 70.0% (159 hit, 68 miss, across 227 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 39.9% (59 hit, 89 miss, across 148 method-scored calls on 227 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 55.0% (11 hit, 9 miss, across 20 underdog calls on 227 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 70.0% 159 68
- Method Accuracy 39.9% 59 89
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 55.0% 11 9
JakeGerberMMA
Current pick evidence
Picked: Rinya Nakamura · Dec
Fight result: Brady Hiestand · Submission
Nakamura's wrestling controls the fight, stops Hiestand's takedowns, and edges the striking exchanges on distance.
“I think Rena is more explosive. His striking is improving. I think he can go out here and and staying up He stand and get this one done uh on the cards by decision. Give me Renya Nakamura.”
Track record: winner called in 101 of 154 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 65.6% (101 hit, 53 miss, across 154 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 60.0% (39 hit, 26 miss, across 65 method-scored calls on 154 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 35.7% (5 hit, 9 miss, across 14 round-scored calls on 154 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (4 hit, 8 miss, across 12 underdog calls on 154 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 65.6% 101 53
- Method Accuracy 60.0% 39 26
- Round Accuracy 35.7% 5 9
- Underdog Accuracy 33.3% 4 8
DFS By The Numbers
Current pick evidence
Picked: Rinya Nakamura · KO/TKO · Round 1
Fight result: Brady Hiestand · Submission
Picks Ren Nakamura by first-round knockout.
“Nakamura by first round knockout.”
Track record: winner called in 112 of 173 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 64.7% (112 hit, 61 miss, across 173 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 61.0% (61 hit, 39 miss, across 100 method-scored calls on 173 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 38.3% (18 hit, 29 miss, across 47 round-scored calls on 173 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 36.4% (8 hit, 14 miss, across 22 underdog calls on 173 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 64.7% 112 61
- Method Accuracy 61.0% 61 39
- Round Accuracy 38.3% 18 29
- Underdog Accuracy 36.4% 8 14
We Want Picks
Current pick evidence
Picked: Rinya Nakamura
Fight result: Brady Hiestand · Submission
Angelo picks Rinya Nakamura; the transcript's Rena/Ren caption forms are reconciled to the official card.
“Rena's going to get his hand raised and he will win this fight.”
Track record: winner called in 93 of 145 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 64.1% (93 hit, 52 miss, across 145 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 40.0% (2 hit, 3 miss, across 5 method-scored calls on 145 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Underdog Accuracy 34.5% (10 hit, 19 miss, across 29 underdog calls on 145 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 64.1% 93 52
- Method Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
- Round AccuracyNamed rounds — none on a correct call yet
- Underdog Accuracy 34.5% 10 19
Drake Burden
Current pick evidence
Picked: Rinya Nakamura
Fight result: Brady Hiestand · Submission
Drake Burden picks Rinya Nakamura.
Track record: winner called in 62 of 98 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 63.3% (62 hit, 36 miss, across 98 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 46.2% (6 hit, 7 miss, across 13 underdog calls on 98 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 63.3% 62 36
- Method AccuracyCalls the winner, not the method
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 46.2% 6 7
Michael Iannone
Current pick evidence
Picked: Rinya Nakamura · KO/TKO
Fight result: Brady Hiestand · Submission
Written pick by Michael Iannone in the cited pre-event article.
Track record: winner called in 15 of 24 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 62.5% (15 hit, 9 miss, across 24 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 55.6% (5 hit, 4 miss, across 9 method-scored calls on 24 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 2 miss, across 2 round-scored calls on 24 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 50.0% (3 hit, 3 miss, across 6 underdog calls on 24 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 62.5% 15 9
- Method Accuracy 55.6% 5 4
- Round Accuracy 0.0% 2
- Underdog Accuracy 50.0% 3 3
James Blissett
Current pick evidence
Picked: Rinya Nakamura · KO/TKO
Fight result: Brady Hiestand · Submission
Picks Ren Nakamura by knockout.
“I got Reny Nakamura to win this fight via knockout.”
Track record: winner called in 48 of 79 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 60.8% (48 hit, 31 miss, across 79 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 54.2% (26 hit, 22 miss, across 48 method-scored calls on 79 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 50.0% (3 hit, 3 miss, across 6 round-scored calls on 79 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 41.2% (7 hit, 10 miss, across 17 underdog calls on 79 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 60.8% 48 31
- Method Accuracy 54.2% 26 22
- Round Accuracy 50.0% 3 3
- Underdog Accuracy 41.2% 7 10
Artem MMA
Current pick evidence
Picked: Rinya Nakamura · KO/TKO · Round 1
Fight result: Brady Hiestand · Submission
Picks Ren Nakamura by first-round knockout.
“I think he is going to win by knockout in the first round as well.”
Track record: winner called in 55 of 95 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 57.9% (55 hit, 40 miss, across 95 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 63.8% (30 hit, 17 miss, across 47 method-scored calls on 95 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 60.0% (6 hit, 4 miss, across 10 round-scored calls on 95 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 23.5% (4 hit, 13 miss, across 17 underdog calls on 95 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 57.9% 55 40
- Method Accuracy 63.8% 30 17
- Round Accuracy 60.0% 6 4
- Underdog Accuracy 23.5% 4 13
Adam Martin
Current pick evidence
Picked: Rinya Nakamura
Fight result: Brady Hiestand · Submission
Written pick by Adam Martin in the cited pre-event article.
Track record: winner called in 23 of 40 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 57.5% (23 hit, 17 miss, across 40 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 40.0% (4 hit, 6 miss, across 10 method-scored calls on 40 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 1 miss, across 1 round-scored calls on 40 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 40.0% (2 hit, 3 miss, across 5 underdog calls on 40 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 57.5% 23 17
- Method Accuracy 40.0% 4 6
- Round Accuracy 0.0% 1
- Underdog Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
Jon Litterine
Current pick evidence
Picked: Rinya Nakamura
Fight result: Brady Hiestand · Submission
Jon Litterine picks Rinya Nakamura.
Track record: winner called in 70 of 124 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 56.5% (70 hit, 54 miss, across 124 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 28.0% (7 hit, 18 miss, across 25 underdog calls on 124 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 56.5% 70 54
- Method AccuracyNamed methods — none on a correct call yet
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 28.0% 7 18
Fight Productions
Current pick evidence
Picked: Rinya Nakamura · KO/TKO · Round 1
Fight result: Brady Hiestand · Submission
Fight Productions picks Rinya Nakamura by first-round knockout over Brady Hiestand.
“I've got to go with Nakamura here. I'm going to take him to win this one by a round one knockout.”
Track record: winner called in 37 of 66 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 56.1% (37 hit, 29 miss, across 66 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 75.7% (28 hit, 9 miss, across 37 method-scored calls on 66 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 41.7% (10 hit, 14 miss, across 24 round-scored calls on 66 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 25.0% (2 hit, 6 miss, across 8 underdog calls on 66 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 56.1% 37 29
- Method Accuracy 75.7% 28 9
- Round Accuracy 41.7% 10 14
- Underdog Accuracy 25.0% 2 6
Chris Schweppe
Current pick evidence
Picked: Rinya Nakamura · Dec
Fight result: Brady Hiestand · Submission
Written pick by Chris Schweppe.
Track record: winner called in 53 of 99 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 53.5% (53 hit, 46 miss, across 99 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 47.2% (25 hit, 28 miss, across 53 method-scored calls on 99 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 33.3% (10 hit, 20 miss, across 30 round-scored calls on 99 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (10 hit, 20 miss, across 30 underdog calls on 99 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 53.5% 53 46
- Method Accuracy 47.2% 25 28
- Round Accuracy 33.3% 10 20
- Underdog Accuracy 33.3% 10 20
Cole Shelton
Current pick evidence
Picked: Rinya Nakamura
Fight result: Brady Hiestand · Submission
Written pick by Cole Shelton in the cited pre-event article.
Track record: winner called in 62 of 116 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 53.4% (62 hit, 54 miss, across 116 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 87.5% (7 hit, 1 miss, across 8 method-scored calls on 116 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Underdog Accuracy 16.7% (3 hit, 15 miss, across 18 underdog calls on 116 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 53.4% 62 54
- Method Accuracy 87.5% 7 1
- Round AccuracyNamed rounds — none on a correct call yet
- Underdog Accuracy 16.7% 3 15
TonyHasDiedMMA
Current pick evidence
Picked: Rinya Nakamura
Fight result: Brady Hiestand · Submission
Picks Rinya Nakamura.
“give me Ren Nakamura.”
Track record: winner called in 28 of 53 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 52.8% (28 hit, 25 miss, across 53 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 47.1% (8 hit, 9 miss, across 17 method-scored calls on 53 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 71.4% (5 hit, 2 miss, across 7 round-scored calls on 53 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 20.0% (2 hit, 8 miss, across 10 underdog calls on 53 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 52.8% 28 25
- Method Accuracy 47.1% 8 9
- Round Accuracy 71.4% 5 2
- Underdog Accuracy 20.0% 2 8
MikesMMAPicks
Current pick evidence
Picked: Rinya Nakamura
Fight result: Brady Hiestand · Submission
Written pick by MikesMMAPicks in the cited pre-event article.
Track record: winner called in 25 of 48 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 52.1% (25 hit, 23 miss, across 48 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (3 hit, 6 miss, across 9 underdog calls on 48 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 52.1% 25 23
- Method AccuracyCalls the winner, not the method
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 33.3% 3 6
The MMA Yuda
Current pick evidence
Picked: Rinya Nakamura
Fight result: Brady Hiestand · Submission
Picks Reinier Nakamura.
“This has to be Rein Nakamura all day.”
Track record: winner called in 30 of 58 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 51.7% (30 hit, 28 miss, across 58 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 1 miss, across 1 method-scored calls on 58 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Underdog Accuracy 40.0% (4 hit, 6 miss, across 10 underdog calls on 58 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 51.7% 30 28
- Method Accuracy 0.0% 1
- Round AccuracyNamed rounds — none on a correct call yet
- Underdog Accuracy 40.0% 4 6
Greedo Plays MMA
Current pick evidence
Picked: Rinya Nakamura · Dec
Fight result: Brady Hiestand · Submission
Greedo Plays MMA picks Rinya Nakamura by decision over Brady Hiestand.
“Randy Nakamura beats Brady Hiestand by decision.”
Track record: winner called in 37 of 72 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 51.4% (37 hit, 35 miss, across 72 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 63.3% (19 hit, 11 miss, across 30 method-scored calls on 72 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 57.1% (8 hit, 6 miss, across 14 round-scored calls on 72 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 23.1% (3 hit, 10 miss, across 13 underdog calls on 72 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 51.4% 37 35
- Method Accuracy 63.3% 19 11
- Round Accuracy 57.1% 8 6
- Underdog Accuracy 23.1% 3 10
Nick Kalikas
Current pick evidence
Picked: Rinya Nakamura
Fight result: Brady Hiestand · Submission
Written pick by Nick Kalikas in the cited pre-event article.
Track record: winner called in 23 of 48 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 47.9% (23 hit, 25 miss, across 48 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 28.6% (2 hit, 5 miss, across 7 underdog calls on 48 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 47.9% 23 25
- Method AccuracyCalls the winner, not the method
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 28.6% 2 5
Uselyis
Current pick evidence
Picked: Rinya Nakamura
Fight result: Brady Hiestand · Submission
Phenomenal freestyle wrestler; excellent top control; labeled lock of the week.
“Reny Nakamura moneyline is the play. I don't like to get too fancy.”
Track record: winner called in 25 of 54 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 46.3% (25 hit, 29 miss, across 54 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 52.9% (9 hit, 8 miss, across 17 method-scored calls on 54 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 100.0% (1 hit, 0 miss, across 1 round-scored calls on 54 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 7 miss, across 7 underdog calls on 54 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 46.3% 25 29
- Method Accuracy 52.9% 9 8
- Round Accuracy 100.0% 1
- Underdog Accuracy 0.0% 7
Chris Cross
Current pick evidence
Picked: Rinya Nakamura · Dec
Fight result: Brady Hiestand · Submission
Chris Cross picks Rinya Nakamura by decision.
“I like Nakamura to win by decision.”
Track record: winner called in 8 of 20 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 40.0% (8 hit, 12 miss, across 20 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 25.0% (1 hit, 3 miss, across 4 method-scored calls on 20 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 1 miss, across 1 round-scored calls on 20 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 1 miss, across 1 underdog calls on 20 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 40.0% 8 12
- Method Accuracy 25.0% 1 3
- Round Accuracy 0.0% 1
- Underdog Accuracy 0.0% 1
Chris White
Current pick evidence
Picked: Rinya Nakamura
Fight result: Brady Hiestand · Submission
Written pick by Chris White in the cited pre-event article.
Track record: winner called in 19 of 48 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 39.6% (19 hit, 29 miss, across 48 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 16.7% (2 hit, 10 miss, across 12 underdog calls on 48 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 39.6% 19 29
- Method AccuracyCalls the winner, not the method
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 16.7% 2 10
Rparqs
Current pick evidence
Picked: Rinya Nakamura · KO/TKO · Round 1
Fight result: Brady Hiestand · Submission
Picks Rinya Nakamura.
“I'm taking him by round one finish, round one knockout.”
Track record: winner called in 9 of 24 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 37.5% (9 hit, 15 miss, across 24 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 25.0% (1 hit, 3 miss, across 4 method-scored calls on 24 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Underdog Accuracy 25.0% (1 hit, 3 miss, across 4 underdog calls on 24 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 37.5% 9 15
- Method Accuracy 25.0% 1 3
- Round AccuracyNamed rounds — none on a correct call yet
- Underdog Accuracy 25.0% 1 3
Chris Faria
Current pick evidence
Picked: Rinya Nakamura
Fight result: Brady Hiestand · Submission
Chris Faria picks Rinya Nakamura after weighing Brady Hiestand's long layoff against Nakamura's wrestling, speed, and power.
Track record: winner called in 3 of 10 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 30.0% (3 hit, 7 miss, across 10 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 100.0% (1 hit, 0 miss, across 1 method-scored calls on 10 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (1 hit, 2 miss, across 3 underdog calls on 10 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 30.0% 3 7
- Method Accuracy 100.0% 1
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 33.3% 1 2
Analyst picks: FightIQ Miss; JakeGerberMMA Miss; DFS By The Numbers Miss; We Want Picks Miss; Drake Burden Miss; Michael Iannone Miss; James Blissett Miss; Artem MMA Miss; Adam Martin Miss; Jon Litterine Miss; Fight Productions Miss; Chris Schweppe Miss; Cole Shelton Miss; TonyHasDiedMMA Miss; MikesMMAPicks Miss; The MMA Yuda Miss; Greedo Plays MMA Miss; Nick Kalikas Miss; Uselyis Miss; Chris Cross Miss; Josh Schonwald Hit; Chris White Miss; Rparqs Miss; Chris Faria Miss.
Only 1 of 24 called the upset.
Chart: selected analyst picks, not a win probability. Pill badge: Winner hit rate (total scored picks before this event).
| Expand row |
|---|
The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.
Results
Each agent’s latest pre-fight call vs result; forecast dates may differ. Market: sportsbook snapshot or historic market reconstruction.
Actual Hiestand · Submission · R2
Closest probability Claude put 42% on Hiestand.
27%
Hiestand
73%
Nakamura
PickNakamura · DecisionActualHiestand · Submission · R2
WinnerMissMethodNot applicable — the winner call missedRoundNot applicable — the winner call missed
42%
Hiestand
58%
Nakamura
PickNakamura · DecisionActualHiestand · Submission · R2
WinnerMissMethodNot applicable — the winner call missedRoundNot applicable — the winner call missed
26%
Hiestand
74%
Nakamura
PickNakamura · DecisionActualHiestand · Submission · R2
WinnerMissMethodNot applicable — the winner call missedRoundNot applicable — the winner call missedAI Predictions — latest pre-fight calls
Frozen final publication identity; the calls below retain each agent’s own publication.AI Predictions
Each agent’s latest pre-fight forecast. Dates are shown per agent.
ChatGPT
63 of 108 winner picks correct · 58% hit rate
Pick Nakamura
Most likely: Nakamura by decision, about 40 in 100
Win chance: Hiestand 27%, Nakamura 73%.
Confidence 7 of 10 · High
Claude
61 of 101 winner picks correct · 60% hit rate
Pick Nakamura
Most likely: Nakamura by decision, about 28 in 100
Win chance: Hiestand 42%, Nakamura 58%.
Confidence 6 of 10 · Medium
Gemini
68 of 108 winner picks correct · 63% hit rate
Pick Nakamura
Most likely: Nakamura by decision, about 41 in 100
Win chance: Hiestand 26%, Nakamura 74%.
Confidence 7 of 10 · High
3 of 3 models pick Nakamura.
Questions
The result 7 questions
Who wins, and how likely?
ChatGPT
Nakamura: 73% (about 73 in 100 fights). Hiestand: 27%.
Claude
Nakamura: 58% (about 58 in 100 fights). Hiestand: 42%.
Gemini
Nakamura: 74% (about 74 in 100 fights). Hiestand: 26%.
What is the single most likely outcome?
ChatGPT
Nakamura by decision: 40% (about 40 in 100).
Claude
Nakamura by decision: 28% (about 28 in 100).
Gemini
Nakamura by decision: 41% (about 41 in 100).
What are the three most likely outcomes, and why?
ChatGPT
1. Nakamura by decision (40%); 2. Nakamura by KO/TKO (28%); 3. Hiestand by decision (11%)
Claude
1. Nakamura by decision (28%); 2. Hiestand by decision (20%); 3. Nakamura by KO/TKO (18%)
Gemini
1. Nakamura by decision (41%); 2. Nakamura by KO/TKO (26%); 3. Hiestand by submission (10%)
How confident is the model?
ChatGPT
7 of 10, based on Nakamura's 73% win chance.
Claude
6 of 10, based on Nakamura's 58% win chance.
Gemini
7 of 10, based on Nakamura's 74% win chance.
Does it end early or go to the judges?
ChatGPT
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 49%. Decision: 51%.
Claude
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 52%. Decision: 48%.
Gemini
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 49%. Decision: 51%.
How does Hiestand win?
ChatGPT
Hiestand wins 27%: KO/TKO 7%, submission 9%, decision 11%.
Claude
Hiestand wins 42%: KO/TKO 12%, submission 10%, decision 20%.
Gemini
Hiestand wins 26%: KO/TKO 6%, submission 10%, decision 10%.
How does Nakamura win?
ChatGPT
Nakamura wins 73%: KO/TKO 28%, submission 5%, decision 40%.
Claude
Nakamura wins 58%: KO/TKO 18%, submission 12%, decision 28%.
Gemini
Nakamura wins 74%: KO/TKO 26%, submission 7%, decision 41%.
What if 1 question
What is the upset path?
ChatGPT
Hiestand's most likely upset: Hiestand by decision (11%).
Claude
Hiestand's most likely upset: Hiestand by decision (20%).
Compared with others 1 question
Do the models agree?
All models
The models agree: all 3 pick Nakamura.
After the fight 1 question
What happened vs what the model said?
ChatGPT
Result: Hiestand by submission in round 2. Hiestand by submission was the model's number 4 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Nakamura by decision (40%).
Claude
Result: Hiestand by submission in round 2. Hiestand by submission was the model's number 6 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Nakamura by decision (28%).
Gemini
Result: Hiestand by submission in round 2. Hiestand by submission was the model's joint number 3 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Nakamura by decision (41%).
More questions (19)
The result 7 questions
KO/TKO vs submission vs decision overall
ChatGPT
KO/TKO 35%, submission 14%, decision 51%.
Claude
KO/TKO 30%, submission 22%, decision 48%.
Gemini
KO/TKO 32%, submission 17%, decision 51%.
Who is more likely to finish the other?
ChatGPT
Nakamura: 33%, against 16% for Hiestand.
Claude
Nakamura: 30%, against 22% for Hiestand.
Gemini
Nakamura: 33%, against 16% for Hiestand.
Can Hiestand get the finish? Can Nakamura?
ChatGPT
Hiestand: 16% (KO/TKO 7%, submission 9%). Nakamura: 33% (KO/TKO 28%, submission 5%).
Claude
Hiestand: 22% (KO/TKO 12%, submission 10%). Nakamura: 30% (KO/TKO 18%, submission 12%).
Gemini
Hiestand: 16% (KO/TKO 6%, submission 10%). Nakamura: 33% (KO/TKO 26%, submission 7%).
Who is more likely to be knocked out, and who to be submitted?
ChatGPT
Hiestand is knocked out in 28% and submitted in 5%. Nakamura is knocked out in 7% and submitted in 9%.
Claude
Hiestand is knocked out in 18% and submitted in 12%. Nakamura is knocked out in 12% and submitted in 10%.
Gemini
Hiestand is knocked out in 26% and submitted in 7%. Nakamura is knocked out in 6% and submitted in 10%.
How lopsided is this fight?
ChatGPT
Lopsided: 73% vs 27%.
Claude
A clear favourite: 58% vs 42%.
Gemini
Lopsided: 74% vs 26%.
Each fighter's single most likely way to win
ChatGPT
Hiestand by decision: 11%. Nakamura by decision: 40%.
Claude
Hiestand by decision: 20%. Nakamura by decision: 28%.
How big an upset would it be if the underdog wins?
ChatGPT
Hiestand wins 27% (about 1 in 4 fights): a big upset.
Claude
Hiestand wins 42% (about 1 in 2 fights): a modest upset.
Gemini
Hiestand wins 26% (about 1 in 4 fights): a big upset.
Timing 1 question
Chance it goes to a decision
ChatGPT
51%.
Claude
48%.
Gemini
51%.
What if 1 question
If it goes to the judges, who wins?
ChatGPT
If it goes to the judges: Hiestand 22%, Nakamura 78%.
Claude
If it goes to the judges: Hiestand 42%, Nakamura 58%.
Gemini
If it goes to the judges: Hiestand 20%, Nakamura 80%.
Compared with others 5 questions
Where does this model differ from the others?
Claude
Biggest difference: Nakamura by decision, 28% here against 41% on average for the others.
Gemini
Biggest difference: Nakamura by decision, 41% here against 34% on average for the others.
How does it compare with analyst picks?
ChatGPT
Of 24 analyst picks, 1 backs Hiestand and 23 back Nakamura. This model picks Nakamura (73%).
Claude
Of 24 analyst picks, 1 backs Hiestand and 23 back Nakamura. This model picks Nakamura (58%).
Gemini
Of 24 analyst picks, 1 backs Hiestand and 23 back Nakamura. This model picks Nakamura (74%).
Which model is most confident on Hiestand, and which on Nakamura?
All models
On Hiestand: Claude (42%). On Nakamura: Gemini (74%).
Where do the models disagree most?
All models
Nakamura by decision: from 28% (Claude) to 41% (Gemini).
Which analyst agrees most with this model?
All models
Chris Schweppe (Nakamura by decision), Chris Cross (Nakamura by decision), Greedo Plays MMA (Nakamura by decision), JakeGerberMMA (Nakamura by decision) and FightIQ (Nakamura by decision): the same winner and method as this model, tied; this model favours Nakamura, most likely by decision.
How sure 4 questions
When was this forecast made, and by which model version?
ChatGPT
On 25 Sep 2026, by gpt-6-astra.
Claude
On 25 Sep 2026, by claude-sonnet-5.
Gemini
On 26 Sep 2026, by a model version the provider did not report.
What can't the model know?
FightCard
Models research public information before the fight, such as records, styles, recent results and coverage. They cannot see inside training camps, injuries nobody has reported, or what happens on the night. A small chance is not no chance: outcomes the model rates at a few percent still happen, and big favourites lose sometimes.
How is "confidence" worked out?
FightCard
Confidence restates the favourite's win chance on a 10-step scale: the win chance in tens, rounded, so 55% is 6 of 10 and 95% or more is 10 of 10. 1 to 3 reads Low, 4 to 6 Medium and 7 to 10 High. A favourite usually has at least half the chance, so most picks show 5 or more. When the model has the fighters exactly even, there is no pick and no confidence level. It is not a separate judgement by the model.
What counts as a KO, a decision or a draw?
FightCard
KO/TKO includes referee, doctor and corner stoppages, and disqualifications. A decision includes a fight stopped early and scored on the judges' cards. A stoppage between rounds counts as a finish in the round that just ended. A draw and a no contest share one outcome.
After the fight 1 question
Was the actual result in this model's top 3?
ChatGPT
No.
Claude
No.
Gemini
Yes.
ChatGPT
Pick
Nakamura
Confidence 7 of 10 · High
Most likely: Nakamura by decision, about 40 in 100
Win chance: Hiestand 27%, Nakamura 73%.
Most likely outcomes
- Nakamura by decision40%
- Nakamura by KO/TKO28%
- Hiestand by decision11%
- KO/TKO: Hiestand 7%, Nakamura 28%.
- Submission: Hiestand 9%, Nakamura 5%.
- Decision: Hiestand 11%, Nakamura 40%.
Questions
The result 7 questions
Who wins, and how likely?
ChatGPT
Nakamura: 73% (about 73 in 100 fights). Hiestand: 27%.
Other models' answers
Claude
Nakamura: 58% (about 58 in 100 fights). Hiestand: 42%.
Gemini
Nakamura: 74% (about 74 in 100 fights). Hiestand: 26%.
What is the single most likely outcome?
ChatGPT
Nakamura by decision: 40% (about 40 in 100).
Other models' answers
Claude
Nakamura by decision: 28% (about 28 in 100).
Gemini
Nakamura by decision: 41% (about 41 in 100).
What are the three most likely outcomes, and why?
ChatGPT
1. Nakamura by decision (40%); 2. Nakamura by KO/TKO (28%); 3. Hiestand by decision (11%)
Other models' answers
Claude
1. Nakamura by decision (28%); 2. Hiestand by decision (20%); 3. Nakamura by KO/TKO (18%)
Gemini
1. Nakamura by decision (41%); 2. Nakamura by KO/TKO (26%); 3. Hiestand by submission (10%)
How confident is the model?
ChatGPT
7 of 10, based on Nakamura's 73% win chance.
Other models' answers
Claude
6 of 10, based on Nakamura's 58% win chance.
Gemini
7 of 10, based on Nakamura's 74% win chance.
Does it end early or go to the judges?
ChatGPT
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 49%. Decision: 51%.
Other models' answers
Claude
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 52%. Decision: 48%.
How does Hiestand win?
ChatGPT
Hiestand wins 27%: KO/TKO 7%, submission 9%, decision 11%.
Other models' answers
Claude
Hiestand wins 42%: KO/TKO 12%, submission 10%, decision 20%.
Gemini
Hiestand wins 26%: KO/TKO 6%, submission 10%, decision 10%.
How does Nakamura win?
ChatGPT
Nakamura wins 73%: KO/TKO 28%, submission 5%, decision 40%.
Other models' answers
Claude
Nakamura wins 58%: KO/TKO 18%, submission 12%, decision 28%.
Gemini
Nakamura wins 74%: KO/TKO 26%, submission 7%, decision 41%.
What if 1 question
What is the upset path?
ChatGPT
Hiestand's most likely upset: Hiestand by decision (11%).
Other models' answers
Claude
Hiestand's most likely upset: Hiestand by decision (20%).
Compared with others 1 question
Do the models agree?
ChatGPT
The models agree: all 3 pick Nakamura.
After the fight 1 question
What happened vs what the model said?
ChatGPT
Result: Hiestand by submission in round 2. Hiestand by submission was the model's number 4 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Nakamura by decision (40%).
Other models' answers
Claude
Result: Hiestand by submission in round 2. Hiestand by submission was the model's number 6 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Nakamura by decision (28%).
Gemini
Result: Hiestand by submission in round 2. Hiestand by submission was the model's joint number 3 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Nakamura by decision (41%).
More questions (18)
The result 7 questions
KO/TKO vs submission vs decision overall
ChatGPT
KO/TKO 35%, submission 14%, decision 51%.
Other models' answers
Claude
KO/TKO 30%, submission 22%, decision 48%.
Gemini
KO/TKO 32%, submission 17%, decision 51%.
Who is more likely to finish the other?
ChatGPT
Nakamura: 33%, against 16% for Hiestand.
Other models' answers
Claude
Nakamura: 30%, against 22% for Hiestand.
Can Hiestand get the finish? Can Nakamura?
ChatGPT
Hiestand: 16% (KO/TKO 7%, submission 9%). Nakamura: 33% (KO/TKO 28%, submission 5%).
Other models' answers
Claude
Hiestand: 22% (KO/TKO 12%, submission 10%). Nakamura: 30% (KO/TKO 18%, submission 12%).
Gemini
Hiestand: 16% (KO/TKO 6%, submission 10%). Nakamura: 33% (KO/TKO 26%, submission 7%).
Who is more likely to be knocked out, and who to be submitted?
ChatGPT
Hiestand is knocked out in 28% and submitted in 5%. Nakamura is knocked out in 7% and submitted in 9%.
Other models' answers
Claude
Hiestand is knocked out in 18% and submitted in 12%. Nakamura is knocked out in 12% and submitted in 10%.
Gemini
Hiestand is knocked out in 26% and submitted in 7%. Nakamura is knocked out in 6% and submitted in 10%.
How lopsided is this fight?
ChatGPT
Lopsided: 73% vs 27%.
Other models' answers
Claude
A clear favourite: 58% vs 42%.
Gemini
Lopsided: 74% vs 26%.
Each fighter's single most likely way to win
ChatGPT
Hiestand by decision: 11%. Nakamura by decision: 40%.
Other models' answers
Claude
Hiestand by decision: 20%. Nakamura by decision: 28%.
How big an upset would it be if the underdog wins?
ChatGPT
Hiestand wins 27% (about 1 in 4 fights): a big upset.
Other models' answers
Claude
Hiestand wins 42% (about 1 in 2 fights): a modest upset.
Gemini
Hiestand wins 26% (about 1 in 4 fights): a big upset.
Timing 1 question
Chance it goes to a decision
ChatGPT
51%.
Other models' answers
Claude
48%.
What if 1 question
If it goes to the judges, who wins?
ChatGPT
If it goes to the judges: Hiestand 22%, Nakamura 78%.
Other models' answers
Claude
If it goes to the judges: Hiestand 42%, Nakamura 58%.
Gemini
If it goes to the judges: Hiestand 20%, Nakamura 80%.
Compared with others 4 questions
How does it compare with analyst picks?
ChatGPT
Of 24 analyst picks, 1 backs Hiestand and 23 back Nakamura. This model picks Nakamura (73%).
Other models' answers
Claude
Of 24 analyst picks, 1 backs Hiestand and 23 back Nakamura. This model picks Nakamura (58%).
Gemini
Of 24 analyst picks, 1 backs Hiestand and 23 back Nakamura. This model picks Nakamura (74%).
Which model is most confident on Hiestand, and which on Nakamura?
ChatGPT
On Hiestand: Claude (42%). On Nakamura: Gemini (74%).
Where do the models disagree most?
ChatGPT
Nakamura by decision: from 28% (Claude) to 41% (Gemini).
Which analyst agrees most with this model?
ChatGPT
Chris Schweppe (Nakamura by decision), Chris Cross (Nakamura by decision), Greedo Plays MMA (Nakamura by decision), JakeGerberMMA (Nakamura by decision) and FightIQ (Nakamura by decision): the same winner and method as this model, tied; this model favours Nakamura, most likely by decision.
How sure 4 questions
When was this forecast made, and by which model version?
ChatGPT
On 25 Sep 2026, by gpt-6-astra.
Other models' answers
Claude
On 25 Sep 2026, by claude-sonnet-5.
Gemini
On 26 Sep 2026, by a model version the provider did not report.
What can't the model know?
FightCard
Models research public information before the fight, such as records, styles, recent results and coverage. They cannot see inside training camps, injuries nobody has reported, or what happens on the night. A small chance is not no chance: outcomes the model rates at a few percent still happen, and big favourites lose sometimes.
How is "confidence" worked out?
FightCard
Confidence restates the favourite's win chance on a 10-step scale: the win chance in tens, rounded, so 55% is 6 of 10 and 95% or more is 10 of 10. 1 to 3 reads Low, 4 to 6 Medium and 7 to 10 High. A favourite usually has at least half the chance, so most picks show 5 or more. When the model has the fighters exactly even, there is no pick and no confidence level. It is not a separate judgement by the model.
What counts as a KO, a decision or a draw?
FightCard
KO/TKO includes referee, doctor and corner stoppages, and disqualifications. A decision includes a fight stopped early and scored on the judges' cards. A stoppage between rounds counts as a finish in the round that just ended. A draw and a no contest share one outcome.
After the fight 1 question
Was the actual result in this model's top 3?
ChatGPT
No.
Other models' answers
Gemini
Yes.
gpt-6-astra · 25 Sep63 of 108 winner picks correct · 58% hit rate
Claude
Pick
Nakamura
Confidence 6 of 10 · Medium
Most likely: Nakamura by decision, about 28 in 100
Win chance: Hiestand 42%, Nakamura 58%.
Most likely outcomes
- Nakamura by decision28%
- Hiestand by decision20%
- Nakamura by KO/TKO18%
- KO/TKO: Hiestand 12%, Nakamura 18%.
- Submission: Hiestand 10%, Nakamura 12%.
- Decision: Hiestand 20%, Nakamura 28%.
Questions
The result 7 questions
Who wins, and how likely?
Claude
Nakamura: 58% (about 58 in 100 fights). Hiestand: 42%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Nakamura: 73% (about 73 in 100 fights). Hiestand: 27%.
Gemini
Nakamura: 74% (about 74 in 100 fights). Hiestand: 26%.
What is the single most likely outcome?
Claude
Nakamura by decision: 28% (about 28 in 100).
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Nakamura by decision: 40% (about 40 in 100).
Gemini
Nakamura by decision: 41% (about 41 in 100).
What are the three most likely outcomes, and why?
Claude
1. Nakamura by decision (28%); 2. Hiestand by decision (20%); 3. Nakamura by KO/TKO (18%)
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
1. Nakamura by decision (40%); 2. Nakamura by KO/TKO (28%); 3. Hiestand by decision (11%)
Gemini
1. Nakamura by decision (41%); 2. Nakamura by KO/TKO (26%); 3. Hiestand by submission (10%)
How confident is the model?
Claude
6 of 10, based on Nakamura's 58% win chance.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
7 of 10, based on Nakamura's 73% win chance.
Gemini
7 of 10, based on Nakamura's 74% win chance.
Does it end early or go to the judges?
Claude
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 52%. Decision: 48%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 49%. Decision: 51%.
Gemini
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 49%. Decision: 51%.
How does Hiestand win?
Claude
Hiestand wins 42%: KO/TKO 12%, submission 10%, decision 20%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Hiestand wins 27%: KO/TKO 7%, submission 9%, decision 11%.
Gemini
Hiestand wins 26%: KO/TKO 6%, submission 10%, decision 10%.
How does Nakamura win?
Claude
Nakamura wins 58%: KO/TKO 18%, submission 12%, decision 28%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Nakamura wins 73%: KO/TKO 28%, submission 5%, decision 40%.
Gemini
Nakamura wins 74%: KO/TKO 26%, submission 7%, decision 41%.
What if 1 question
What is the upset path?
Claude
Hiestand's most likely upset: Hiestand by decision (20%).
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Hiestand's most likely upset: Hiestand by decision (11%).
Compared with others 1 question
Do the models agree?
Claude
The models agree: all 3 pick Nakamura.
After the fight 1 question
What happened vs what the model said?
Claude
Result: Hiestand by submission in round 2. Hiestand by submission was the model's number 6 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Nakamura by decision (28%).
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Result: Hiestand by submission in round 2. Hiestand by submission was the model's number 4 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Nakamura by decision (40%).
Gemini
Result: Hiestand by submission in round 2. Hiestand by submission was the model's joint number 3 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Nakamura by decision (41%).
More questions (19)
The result 7 questions
KO/TKO vs submission vs decision overall
Claude
KO/TKO 30%, submission 22%, decision 48%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
KO/TKO 35%, submission 14%, decision 51%.
Gemini
KO/TKO 32%, submission 17%, decision 51%.
Who is more likely to finish the other?
Claude
Nakamura: 30%, against 22% for Hiestand.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Nakamura: 33%, against 16% for Hiestand.
Gemini
Nakamura: 33%, against 16% for Hiestand.
Can Hiestand get the finish? Can Nakamura?
Claude
Hiestand: 22% (KO/TKO 12%, submission 10%). Nakamura: 30% (KO/TKO 18%, submission 12%).
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Hiestand: 16% (KO/TKO 7%, submission 9%). Nakamura: 33% (KO/TKO 28%, submission 5%).
Gemini
Hiestand: 16% (KO/TKO 6%, submission 10%). Nakamura: 33% (KO/TKO 26%, submission 7%).
Who is more likely to be knocked out, and who to be submitted?
Claude
Hiestand is knocked out in 18% and submitted in 12%. Nakamura is knocked out in 12% and submitted in 10%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Hiestand is knocked out in 28% and submitted in 5%. Nakamura is knocked out in 7% and submitted in 9%.
Gemini
Hiestand is knocked out in 26% and submitted in 7%. Nakamura is knocked out in 6% and submitted in 10%.
How lopsided is this fight?
Claude
A clear favourite: 58% vs 42%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Lopsided: 73% vs 27%.
Gemini
Lopsided: 74% vs 26%.
Each fighter's single most likely way to win
Claude
Hiestand by decision: 20%. Nakamura by decision: 28%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Hiestand by decision: 11%. Nakamura by decision: 40%.
How big an upset would it be if the underdog wins?
Claude
Hiestand wins 42% (about 1 in 2 fights): a modest upset.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Hiestand wins 27% (about 1 in 4 fights): a big upset.
Gemini
Hiestand wins 26% (about 1 in 4 fights): a big upset.
Timing 1 question
Chance it goes to a decision
Claude
48%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
51%.
Gemini
51%.
What if 1 question
If it goes to the judges, who wins?
Claude
If it goes to the judges: Hiestand 42%, Nakamura 58%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
If it goes to the judges: Hiestand 22%, Nakamura 78%.
Gemini
If it goes to the judges: Hiestand 20%, Nakamura 80%.
Compared with others 5 questions
Where does this model differ from the others?
Claude
Biggest difference: Nakamura by decision, 28% here against 41% on average for the others.
Other models' answers
Gemini
Biggest difference: Nakamura by decision, 41% here against 34% on average for the others.
How does it compare with analyst picks?
Claude
Of 24 analyst picks, 1 backs Hiestand and 23 back Nakamura. This model picks Nakamura (58%).
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Of 24 analyst picks, 1 backs Hiestand and 23 back Nakamura. This model picks Nakamura (73%).
Gemini
Of 24 analyst picks, 1 backs Hiestand and 23 back Nakamura. This model picks Nakamura (74%).
Which model is most confident on Hiestand, and which on Nakamura?
Claude
On Hiestand: Claude (42%). On Nakamura: Gemini (74%).
Where do the models disagree most?
Claude
Nakamura by decision: from 28% (Claude) to 41% (Gemini).
Which analyst agrees most with this model?
Claude
Chris Schweppe (Nakamura by decision), Chris Cross (Nakamura by decision), Greedo Plays MMA (Nakamura by decision), JakeGerberMMA (Nakamura by decision) and FightIQ (Nakamura by decision): the same winner and method as this model, tied; this model favours Nakamura, most likely by decision.
How sure 4 questions
When was this forecast made, and by which model version?
Claude
On 25 Sep 2026, by claude-sonnet-5.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
On 25 Sep 2026, by gpt-6-astra.
Gemini
On 26 Sep 2026, by a model version the provider did not report.
What can't the model know?
FightCard
Models research public information before the fight, such as records, styles, recent results and coverage. They cannot see inside training camps, injuries nobody has reported, or what happens on the night. A small chance is not no chance: outcomes the model rates at a few percent still happen, and big favourites lose sometimes.
How is "confidence" worked out?
FightCard
Confidence restates the favourite's win chance on a 10-step scale: the win chance in tens, rounded, so 55% is 6 of 10 and 95% or more is 10 of 10. 1 to 3 reads Low, 4 to 6 Medium and 7 to 10 High. A favourite usually has at least half the chance, so most picks show 5 or more. When the model has the fighters exactly even, there is no pick and no confidence level. It is not a separate judgement by the model.
What counts as a KO, a decision or a draw?
FightCard
KO/TKO includes referee, doctor and corner stoppages, and disqualifications. A decision includes a fight stopped early and scored on the judges' cards. A stoppage between rounds counts as a finish in the round that just ended. A draw and a no contest share one outcome.
After the fight 1 question
Was the actual result in this model's top 3?
Claude
No.
Other models' answers
Gemini
Yes.
claude-sonnet-5 · 25 Sep61 of 101 winner picks correct · 60% hit rate
Gemini
Pick
Nakamura
Confidence 7 of 10 · High
Most likely: Nakamura by decision, about 41 in 100
Win chance: Hiestand 26%, Nakamura 74%.
Most likely outcomes
- Nakamura by decision41%
- Nakamura by KO/TKO26%
- Hiestand by submission, tied for number 310%
- KO/TKO: Hiestand 6%, Nakamura 26%.
- Submission: Hiestand 10%, Nakamura 7%.
- Decision: Hiestand 10%, Nakamura 41%.
Questions
The result 7 questions
Who wins, and how likely?
Gemini
Nakamura: 74% (about 74 in 100 fights). Hiestand: 26%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Nakamura: 73% (about 73 in 100 fights). Hiestand: 27%.
Claude
Nakamura: 58% (about 58 in 100 fights). Hiestand: 42%.
What is the single most likely outcome?
Gemini
Nakamura by decision: 41% (about 41 in 100).
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Nakamura by decision: 40% (about 40 in 100).
Claude
Nakamura by decision: 28% (about 28 in 100).
What are the three most likely outcomes, and why?
Gemini
1. Nakamura by decision (41%); 2. Nakamura by KO/TKO (26%); 3. Hiestand by submission (10%)
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
1. Nakamura by decision (40%); 2. Nakamura by KO/TKO (28%); 3. Hiestand by decision (11%)
Claude
1. Nakamura by decision (28%); 2. Hiestand by decision (20%); 3. Nakamura by KO/TKO (18%)
How confident is the model?
Gemini
7 of 10, based on Nakamura's 74% win chance.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
7 of 10, based on Nakamura's 73% win chance.
Claude
6 of 10, based on Nakamura's 58% win chance.
Does it end early or go to the judges?
Gemini
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 49%. Decision: 51%.
Other models' answers
Claude
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 52%. Decision: 48%.
How does Hiestand win?
Gemini
Hiestand wins 26%: KO/TKO 6%, submission 10%, decision 10%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Hiestand wins 27%: KO/TKO 7%, submission 9%, decision 11%.
Claude
Hiestand wins 42%: KO/TKO 12%, submission 10%, decision 20%.
How does Nakamura win?
Gemini
Nakamura wins 74%: KO/TKO 26%, submission 7%, decision 41%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Nakamura wins 73%: KO/TKO 28%, submission 5%, decision 40%.
Claude
Nakamura wins 58%: KO/TKO 18%, submission 12%, decision 28%.
Compared with others 1 question
Do the models agree?
Gemini
The models agree: all 3 pick Nakamura.
After the fight 1 question
What happened vs what the model said?
Gemini
Result: Hiestand by submission in round 2. Hiestand by submission was the model's joint number 3 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Nakamura by decision (41%).
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Result: Hiestand by submission in round 2. Hiestand by submission was the model's number 4 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Nakamura by decision (40%).
Claude
Result: Hiestand by submission in round 2. Hiestand by submission was the model's number 6 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Nakamura by decision (28%).
More questions (18)
The result 6 questions
KO/TKO vs submission vs decision overall
Gemini
KO/TKO 32%, submission 17%, decision 51%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
KO/TKO 35%, submission 14%, decision 51%.
Claude
KO/TKO 30%, submission 22%, decision 48%.
Who is more likely to finish the other?
Gemini
Nakamura: 33%, against 16% for Hiestand.
Other models' answers
Claude
Nakamura: 30%, against 22% for Hiestand.
Can Hiestand get the finish? Can Nakamura?
Gemini
Hiestand: 16% (KO/TKO 6%, submission 10%). Nakamura: 33% (KO/TKO 26%, submission 7%).
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Hiestand: 16% (KO/TKO 7%, submission 9%). Nakamura: 33% (KO/TKO 28%, submission 5%).
Claude
Hiestand: 22% (KO/TKO 12%, submission 10%). Nakamura: 30% (KO/TKO 18%, submission 12%).
Who is more likely to be knocked out, and who to be submitted?
Gemini
Hiestand is knocked out in 26% and submitted in 7%. Nakamura is knocked out in 6% and submitted in 10%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Hiestand is knocked out in 28% and submitted in 5%. Nakamura is knocked out in 7% and submitted in 9%.
Claude
Hiestand is knocked out in 18% and submitted in 12%. Nakamura is knocked out in 12% and submitted in 10%.
How lopsided is this fight?
Gemini
Lopsided: 74% vs 26%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Lopsided: 73% vs 27%.
Claude
A clear favourite: 58% vs 42%.
How big an upset would it be if the underdog wins?
Gemini
Hiestand wins 26% (about 1 in 4 fights): a big upset.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Hiestand wins 27% (about 1 in 4 fights): a big upset.
Claude
Hiestand wins 42% (about 1 in 2 fights): a modest upset.
Timing 1 question
Chance it goes to a decision
Gemini
51%.
Other models' answers
Claude
48%.
What if 1 question
If it goes to the judges, who wins?
Gemini
If it goes to the judges: Hiestand 20%, Nakamura 80%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
If it goes to the judges: Hiestand 22%, Nakamura 78%.
Claude
If it goes to the judges: Hiestand 42%, Nakamura 58%.
Compared with others 5 questions
Where does this model differ from the others?
Gemini
Biggest difference: Nakamura by decision, 41% here against 34% on average for the others.
Other models' answers
Claude
Biggest difference: Nakamura by decision, 28% here against 41% on average for the others.
How does it compare with analyst picks?
Gemini
Of 24 analyst picks, 1 backs Hiestand and 23 back Nakamura. This model picks Nakamura (74%).
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Of 24 analyst picks, 1 backs Hiestand and 23 back Nakamura. This model picks Nakamura (73%).
Claude
Of 24 analyst picks, 1 backs Hiestand and 23 back Nakamura. This model picks Nakamura (58%).
Which model is most confident on Hiestand, and which on Nakamura?
Gemini
On Hiestand: Claude (42%). On Nakamura: Gemini (74%).
Where do the models disagree most?
Gemini
Nakamura by decision: from 28% (Claude) to 41% (Gemini).
Which analyst agrees most with this model?
Gemini
Chris Schweppe (Nakamura by decision), Chris Cross (Nakamura by decision), Greedo Plays MMA (Nakamura by decision), JakeGerberMMA (Nakamura by decision) and FightIQ (Nakamura by decision): the same winner and method as this model, tied; this model favours Nakamura, most likely by decision.
How sure 4 questions
When was this forecast made, and by which model version?
Gemini
On 26 Sep 2026, by a model version the provider did not report.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
On 25 Sep 2026, by gpt-6-astra.
Claude
On 25 Sep 2026, by claude-sonnet-5.
What can't the model know?
FightCard
Models research public information before the fight, such as records, styles, recent results and coverage. They cannot see inside training camps, injuries nobody has reported, or what happens on the night. A small chance is not no chance: outcomes the model rates at a few percent still happen, and big favourites lose sometimes.
How is "confidence" worked out?
FightCard
Confidence restates the favourite's win chance on a 10-step scale: the win chance in tens, rounded, so 55% is 6 of 10 and 95% or more is 10 of 10. 1 to 3 reads Low, 4 to 6 Medium and 7 to 10 High. A favourite usually has at least half the chance, so most picks show 5 or more. When the model has the fighters exactly even, there is no pick and no confidence level. It is not a separate judgement by the model.
What counts as a KO, a decision or a draw?
FightCard
KO/TKO includes referee, doctor and corner stoppages, and disqualifications. A decision includes a fight stopped early and scored on the judges' cards. A stoppage between rounds counts as a finish in the round that just ended. A draw and a no contest share one outcome.
After the fight 1 question
Was the actual result in this model's top 3?
Gemini
Yes.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
No.
Claude
No.
Version not reported · 26 Sep68 of 108 winner picks correct · 63% hit rate
AI-generated · Not betting advice · 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-MY-RESET
Market Odds
No current consensus line is saved on this page.
Comments are currently closed while we finish moderation and privacy controls.