“After I hit him a couple times, he started looking away from the shots.” Montel Jackson (@Montello135) made quick work of his Saturday en route to a first-round victory at #UFCVegas121 Prelim Results ➡️ https://t.co/PrGJB0jNWF Scorecards ➡️ https://t.co/5t667X4q4Q
View video on X ↗Montel Jackson defeats Ricky Simon by KO/TKO
KO/TKO · strikes
Round 2 · 2:39
Jackson vs Simon — Bantamweight · UFC Fight Night
Predictions summary
Analyst Picks
(18) 78%
22% (5)
AI Predictions
64%
36%
Market OddsComing soonNo forecast publishedUnavailable right nowBook prices available in Market
Checking latest live market odds.
What happened
The result, the defining moments, and what the verdict means.
Simon used his wrestling to put Jackson on the mat and build early control.
Jackson found space for his left hand, dropped Simon and began to reverse the fight's balance.
Jackson's second-round combination forced the referee to stop the fight at 2:39.
- Official UFC resultsUFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs Barcelos prelim results
Pre-fight analysis — how we saw it going in
Case for Jackson
Jackson brings a long, athletic bantamweight frame and a clear distance-management route. His task is to keep Simon from turning the bout into a prolonged wrestling match.
Case for Simon
Simon is at his best when pressure and wrestling create repeated decisions for an opponent. His route is to close distance, chain attempts and make Jackson work from uncomfortable positions.
What We Were Watching For
- Whether Jackson can keep the fight at range.
- How Simon's wrestling pressure affects the pace.
- Which fighter wins the first extended scramble.
Records & career stats
- 15-4-0
- Record
- 22-7-1
- 3-2 last 5
- Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
- 2-2-1 last 5
- United States
- Nationality
- United States
- 34
- Age
- 33
- Not published
- StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
- Not published
- Source pending
- Finish rateFinish %Finish rateThe share of a fighter’s wins that ended inside the distance — by KO/TKO or submission — rather than going to the judges’ scorecards. Higher means more finishes.
- 50%
- —
- Wins by KO/TKOKO wins
- 7
- 11:04
- Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
- 12:49
- Pura Vida BJJ & MMA
- Team
- Syndicate MMA
Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Record is as of fight night; career stats, recent form and win totals are the latest on file and may include this fight. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.
Videos
Outcome footage, post-fight coverage, and the pre-fight lead-up.
Before the fight (1)
Comments
Who Called It?
How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.
(18) 78%
WJackson
22% (5)
SimonL
Show Me The Money
Current pick evidence
Picked: Montel Jackson
Fight result: Montel Jackson · KO/TKO
Picks Montel Jackson.
“my favorite bet is going to be Montel Jackson money line”
Track record builds as we verify their past calls.
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 100.0% (4 hit, 0 miss, across 4 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 100.0% (1 hit, 0 miss, across 1 method-scored calls on 4 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy: No underdog calls with a known pre-fight price.
- Winner Accuracy 100.0% 4
- Method Accuracy 100.0% 1
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog AccuracyNo underdog calls with a known pre-fight price
FightIQ
Current pick evidence
Picked: Montel Jackson · Dec
Fight result: Montel Jackson · KO/TKO
FightIQ's public record lists Montel Jackson as its pick over Ricky Simon.
Track record: winner called in 159 of 227 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 70.0% (159 hit, 68 miss, across 227 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 39.9% (59 hit, 89 miss, across 148 method-scored calls on 227 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 55.0% (11 hit, 9 miss, across 20 underdog calls on 227 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 70.0% 159 68
- Method Accuracy 39.9% 59 89
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 55.0% 11 9
JakeGerberMMA
Current pick evidence
Picked: Montel Jackson · Dec
Fight result: Montel Jackson · KO/TKO
Jackson improved takedown defense and can win rematch by boxing more aggressively and controlling distance.
“So, I'm going to go Montel Jackson. I think he's able to get this one done by a decision.”
Track record: winner called in 101 of 154 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 65.6% (101 hit, 53 miss, across 154 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 60.0% (39 hit, 26 miss, across 65 method-scored calls on 154 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 35.7% (5 hit, 9 miss, across 14 round-scored calls on 154 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (4 hit, 8 miss, across 12 underdog calls on 154 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 65.6% 101 53
- Method Accuracy 60.0% 39 26
- Round Accuracy 35.7% 5 9
- Underdog Accuracy 33.3% 4 8
DFS By The Numbers
Current pick evidence
Picked: Montel Jackson · KO/TKO · Round 2
Fight result: Montel Jackson · KO/TKO
Picks Montel Jackson by second-round knockout.
“I'm going Montel Jackson by knockout here in the second round.”
Track record: winner called in 112 of 173 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 64.7% (112 hit, 61 miss, across 173 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 61.0% (61 hit, 39 miss, across 100 method-scored calls on 173 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 38.3% (18 hit, 29 miss, across 47 round-scored calls on 173 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 36.4% (8 hit, 14 miss, across 22 underdog calls on 173 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 64.7% 112 61
- Method Accuracy 61.0% 61 39
- Round Accuracy 38.3% 18 29
- Underdog Accuracy 36.4% 8 14
We Want Picks
Current pick evidence
Picked: Montel Jackson
Fight result: Montel Jackson · KO/TKO
Angelo picks Montel Jackson after breaking down the rematch with Ricky Simon.
“Montel's going to be the pick, but I'm not going to do anything with that information.”
Track record: winner called in 93 of 145 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 64.1% (93 hit, 52 miss, across 145 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 40.0% (2 hit, 3 miss, across 5 method-scored calls on 145 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Underdog Accuracy 34.5% (10 hit, 19 miss, across 29 underdog calls on 145 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 64.1% 93 52
- Method Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
- Round AccuracyNamed rounds — none on a correct call yet
- Underdog Accuracy 34.5% 10 19
Drake Burden
Current pick evidence
Picked: Montel Jackson
Fight result: Montel Jackson · KO/TKO
Drake Burden picks Montel Jackson.
Track record: winner called in 62 of 98 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 63.3% (62 hit, 36 miss, across 98 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 46.2% (6 hit, 7 miss, across 13 underdog calls on 98 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 63.3% 62 36
- Method AccuracyCalls the winner, not the method
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 46.2% 6 7
James Blissett
Current pick evidence
Picked: Montel Jackson · KO/TKO
Fight result: Montel Jackson · KO/TKO
Picks Montel Jackson by knockout.
“Montel Jackson via KO is my official prediction.”
Track record: winner called in 48 of 79 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 60.8% (48 hit, 31 miss, across 79 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 54.2% (26 hit, 22 miss, across 48 method-scored calls on 79 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 50.0% (3 hit, 3 miss, across 6 round-scored calls on 79 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 41.2% (7 hit, 10 miss, across 17 underdog calls on 79 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 60.8% 48 31
- Method Accuracy 54.2% 26 22
- Round Accuracy 50.0% 3 3
- Underdog Accuracy 41.2% 7 10
Artem MMA
Current pick evidence
Picked: Montel Jackson · KO/TKO
Fight result: Montel Jackson · KO/TKO
Picks Montel Jackson by knockout.
“I've got Montel Jackson by KO in this matchup.”
Track record: winner called in 55 of 95 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 57.9% (55 hit, 40 miss, across 95 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 63.8% (30 hit, 17 miss, across 47 method-scored calls on 95 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 60.0% (6 hit, 4 miss, across 10 round-scored calls on 95 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 23.5% (4 hit, 13 miss, across 17 underdog calls on 95 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 57.9% 55 40
- Method Accuracy 63.8% 30 17
- Round Accuracy 60.0% 6 4
- Underdog Accuracy 23.5% 4 13
Adam Martin
Current pick evidence
Picked: Montel Jackson
Fight result: Montel Jackson · KO/TKO
Written pick by Adam Martin in the cited pre-event article.
Track record: winner called in 23 of 40 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 57.5% (23 hit, 17 miss, across 40 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 40.0% (4 hit, 6 miss, across 10 method-scored calls on 40 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 1 miss, across 1 round-scored calls on 40 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 40.0% (2 hit, 3 miss, across 5 underdog calls on 40 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 57.5% 23 17
- Method Accuracy 40.0% 4 6
- Round Accuracy 0.0% 1
- Underdog Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
Cole Shelton
Current pick evidence
Picked: Montel Jackson
Fight result: Montel Jackson · KO/TKO
Cole Shelton picks Montel Jackson.
Track record: winner called in 62 of 116 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 53.4% (62 hit, 54 miss, across 116 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 87.5% (7 hit, 1 miss, across 8 method-scored calls on 116 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Underdog Accuracy 16.7% (3 hit, 15 miss, across 18 underdog calls on 116 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 53.4% 62 54
- Method Accuracy 87.5% 7 1
- Round AccuracyNamed rounds — none on a correct call yet
- Underdog Accuracy 16.7% 3 15
TonyHasDiedMMA
Current pick evidence
Picked: Montel Jackson · KO/TKO
Fight result: Montel Jackson · KO/TKO
Picks Montel Jackson.
“Montel Jackson will get a quick knockout here over Ricky Simone.”
Track record: winner called in 28 of 53 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 52.8% (28 hit, 25 miss, across 53 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 47.1% (8 hit, 9 miss, across 17 method-scored calls on 53 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 71.4% (5 hit, 2 miss, across 7 round-scored calls on 53 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 20.0% (2 hit, 8 miss, across 10 underdog calls on 53 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 52.8% 28 25
- Method Accuracy 47.1% 8 9
- Round Accuracy 71.4% 5 2
- Underdog Accuracy 20.0% 2 8
MikesMMAPicks
Current pick evidence
Picked: Montel Jackson
Fight result: Montel Jackson · KO/TKO
Written pick by MikesMMAPicks in the cited pre-event article.
Track record: winner called in 25 of 48 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 52.1% (25 hit, 23 miss, across 48 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (3 hit, 6 miss, across 9 underdog calls on 48 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 52.1% 25 23
- Method AccuracyCalls the winner, not the method
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 33.3% 3 6
The MMA Yuda
Current pick evidence
Picked: Montel Jackson
Fight result: Montel Jackson · KO/TKO
Picks Montel Jackson.
“I'm picking Montel Jackson.”
Track record: winner called in 30 of 58 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 51.7% (30 hit, 28 miss, across 58 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 1 miss, across 1 method-scored calls on 58 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Underdog Accuracy 40.0% (4 hit, 6 miss, across 10 underdog calls on 58 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 51.7% 30 28
- Method Accuracy 0.0% 1
- Round AccuracyNamed rounds — none on a correct call yet
- Underdog Accuracy 40.0% 4 6
Greedo Plays MMA
Current pick evidence
Picked: Montel Jackson · Dec
Fight result: Montel Jackson · KO/TKO
Greedo Plays MMA picks Montel Jackson by decision over Ricky Simon.
“I'm going to go with Montel Jackson to win this fight by unanimous decision.”
Track record: winner called in 37 of 72 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 51.4% (37 hit, 35 miss, across 72 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 63.3% (19 hit, 11 miss, across 30 method-scored calls on 72 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 57.1% (8 hit, 6 miss, across 14 round-scored calls on 72 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 23.1% (3 hit, 10 miss, across 13 underdog calls on 72 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 51.4% 37 35
- Method Accuracy 63.3% 19 11
- Round Accuracy 57.1% 8 6
- Underdog Accuracy 23.1% 3 10
Uselyis
Current pick evidence
Picked: Montel Jackson
Fight result: Montel Jackson · KO/TKO
Strong takedown defense; winnable matchup against Ricky Simone.
“Our second most confident pick of the week is going to be Montto Jackson at a minus 210 versus Ricky Simone plus 162.”
Track record: winner called in 25 of 54 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 46.3% (25 hit, 29 miss, across 54 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 52.9% (9 hit, 8 miss, across 17 method-scored calls on 54 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 100.0% (1 hit, 0 miss, across 1 round-scored calls on 54 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 7 miss, across 7 underdog calls on 54 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 46.3% 25 29
- Method Accuracy 52.9% 9 8
- Round Accuracy 100.0% 1
- Underdog Accuracy 0.0% 7
Ryan Wohl
Current pick evidence
Picked: Montel Jackson · Dec
Fight result: Montel Jackson · KO/TKO
Written pick by Ryan Wohl in the cited pre-event article.
Track record: winner called in 6 of 13 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 46.2% (6 hit, 7 miss, across 13 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 1 miss, across 1 method-scored calls on 13 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 25.0% (1 hit, 3 miss, across 4 underdog calls on 13 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 46.2% 6 7
- Method Accuracy 0.0% 1
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 25.0% 1 3
Chris White
Current pick evidence
Picked: Montel Jackson
Fight result: Montel Jackson · KO/TKO
Written pick by Chris White in the cited pre-event article.
Track record: winner called in 19 of 48 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 39.6% (19 hit, 29 miss, across 48 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 16.7% (2 hit, 10 miss, across 12 underdog calls on 48 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 39.6% 19 29
- Method AccuracyCalls the winner, not the method
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 16.7% 2 10
Rparqs
Current pick evidence
Picked: Montel Jackson · KO/TKO
Fight result: Montel Jackson · KO/TKO
Picks Montel Jackson.
“I'm going to take Ricky Simo, I'm sorry, Montel Jackson by knockout.”
Track record: winner called in 9 of 24 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 37.5% (9 hit, 15 miss, across 24 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 25.0% (1 hit, 3 miss, across 4 method-scored calls on 24 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Underdog Accuracy 25.0% (1 hit, 3 miss, across 4 underdog calls on 24 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 37.5% 9 15
- Method Accuracy 25.0% 1 3
- Round AccuracyNamed rounds — none on a correct call yet
- Underdog Accuracy 25.0% 1 3
Fight Productions
Current pick evidence
Picked: Ricky Simon · Dec
Fight result: Montel Jackson · KO/TKO
Fight Productions picks Ricky Simon by decision over Montel Jackson.
“I'm gonna take Ricky Simon to win this one by decision.”
Track record: winner called in 37 of 66 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 56.1% (37 hit, 29 miss, across 66 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 75.7% (28 hit, 9 miss, across 37 method-scored calls on 66 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 41.7% (10 hit, 14 miss, across 24 round-scored calls on 66 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 25.0% (2 hit, 6 miss, across 8 underdog calls on 66 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 56.1% 37 29
- Method Accuracy 75.7% 28 9
- Round Accuracy 41.7% 10 14
- Underdog Accuracy 25.0% 2 6
Chris Schweppe
Current pick evidence
Picked: Ricky Simon · Dec
Fight result: Montel Jackson · KO/TKO
Written pick by Chris Schweppe.
Track record: winner called in 53 of 99 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 53.5% (53 hit, 46 miss, across 99 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 47.2% (25 hit, 28 miss, across 53 method-scored calls on 99 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 33.3% (10 hit, 20 miss, across 30 round-scored calls on 99 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (10 hit, 20 miss, across 30 underdog calls on 99 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 53.5% 53 46
- Method Accuracy 47.2% 25 28
- Round Accuracy 33.3% 10 20
- Underdog Accuracy 33.3% 10 20
Nick Kalikas
Current pick evidence
Picked: Ricky Simon
Fight result: Montel Jackson · KO/TKO
Written pick by Nick Kalikas in the cited pre-event article.
Track record: winner called in 23 of 48 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 47.9% (23 hit, 25 miss, across 48 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 28.6% (2 hit, 5 miss, across 7 underdog calls on 48 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 47.9% 23 25
- Method AccuracyCalls the winner, not the method
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 28.6% 2 5
Josh Schonwald
Current pick evidence
Picked: Ricky Simon
Fight result: Montel Jackson · KO/TKO
Josh Schonwald picks Ricky Simon.
Track record: winner called in 6 of 15 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 40.0% (6 hit, 9 miss, across 15 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 14.3% (1 hit, 6 miss, across 7 underdog calls on 15 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 40.0% 6 9
- Method AccuracyCalls the winner, not the method
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 14.3% 1 6
FIGHT//AI
Current pick evidence
Picked: Ricky Simon
Fight result: Montel Jackson · KO/TKO
FIGHT//AI’s selected value bet names Ricky Simon.
Track record: winner called in 49 of 153 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 32.0% (49 hit, 104 miss, across 153 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 50.0% (1 hit, 1 miss, across 2 method-scored calls on 153 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 20.0% (20 hit, 80 miss, across 100 underdog calls on 153 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 32.0% 49 104
- Method Accuracy 50.0% 1 1
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 20.0% 20 80
Analyst picks: Show Me The Money Hit; FightIQ Hit; JakeGerberMMA Hit; DFS By The Numbers Hit; We Want Picks Hit; Drake Burden Hit; James Blissett Hit; Artem MMA Hit; Adam Martin Hit; Fight Productions Miss; Chris Schweppe Miss; Cole Shelton Hit; TonyHasDiedMMA Hit; MikesMMAPicks Hit; The MMA Yuda Hit; Greedo Plays MMA Hit; Nick Kalikas Miss; Uselyis Hit; Ryan Wohl Hit; Josh Schonwald Miss; Chris White Hit; Rparqs Hit; FIGHT//AI Miss.
18 of 23 nailed it.
Chart: selected analyst picks, not a win probability. Pill badge: Winner hit rate (total scored picks before this event).
| Expand row |
|---|
The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.
Results
Each agent’s latest pre-fight call vs result; forecast dates may differ. Market: sportsbook snapshot or historic market reconstruction.
Actual Jackson · KO/TKO · R2
Closest probability ChatGPT put 65% on Jackson.
65%
Jackson
35%
Simon
PickJackson · DecisionActualJackson · KO/TKO · R2
WinnerHitMethodMissRoundNot called
63%
Jackson
37%
Simon
PickJackson · DecisionActualJackson · KO/TKO · R2
WinnerHitMethodMissRoundNot called
63%
Jackson
37%
Simon
PickJackson · DecisionActualJackson · KO/TKO · R2
WinnerHitMethodMissRoundNot calledAI Predictions — latest pre-fight calls
Frozen final publication identity; the calls below retain each agent’s own publication.AI Predictions
Each agent’s latest pre-fight forecast. Dates are shown per agent.
ChatGPT
63 of 108 winner picks correct · 58% hit rate
Pick Jackson
Most likely: Jackson by decision, about 37 in 100
Win chance: Jackson 65%, Simon 35%.
Confidence 7 of 10 · High
Claude
61 of 101 winner picks correct · 60% hit rate
Pick Jackson
Most likely: Jackson by decision, about 32 in 100
Win chance: Jackson 63%, Simon 37%.
Confidence 6 of 10 · Medium
Gemini
68 of 108 winner picks correct · 63% hit rate
Pick Jackson
Most likely: Jackson by decision, about 40 in 100
Win chance: Jackson 63%, Simon 37%.
Confidence 6 of 10 · Medium
3 of 3 models pick Jackson.
Questions
The result 7 questions
Who wins, and how likely?
ChatGPT
Jackson: 65% (about 65 in 100 fights). Simon: 35%.
Claude
Jackson: 63% (about 63 in 100 fights). Simon: 37%.
Gemini
Jackson: 63% (about 63 in 100 fights). Simon: 37%.
What is the single most likely outcome?
ChatGPT
Jackson by decision: 37% (about 37 in 100).
Claude
Jackson by decision: 32% (about 32 in 100).
Gemini
Jackson by decision: 40% (about 40 in 100).
What are the three most likely outcomes, and why?
ChatGPT
1. Jackson by decision (37%); 2. Simon by decision (27%); 3. Jackson by KO/TKO (25%)
Claude
1. Jackson by decision (32%); 2. Jackson by KO/TKO (28%); 3. Simon by decision (24%)
Gemini
1. Jackson by decision (40%); 2. Simon by decision (26%); 3. Jackson by KO/TKO (21%)
How confident is the model?
ChatGPT
7 of 10, based on Jackson's 65% win chance.
Claude
6 of 10, based on Jackson's 63% win chance.
Gemini
6 of 10, based on Jackson's 63% win chance.
Does it end early or go to the judges?
ChatGPT
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 36%. Decision: 64%.
Claude
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 44%. Decision: 56%.
Gemini
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 34%. Decision: 66%.
How does Jackson win?
ChatGPT
Jackson wins 65%: KO/TKO 25%, submission 3%, decision 37%.
Claude
Jackson wins 63%: KO/TKO 28%, submission 3%, decision 32%.
Gemini
Jackson wins 63%: KO/TKO 21%, submission 2%, decision 40%.
How does Simon win?
ChatGPT
Simon wins 35%: KO/TKO 5%, submission 3%, decision 27%.
Claude
Simon wins 37%: KO/TKO 8%, submission 5%, decision 24%.
Gemini
Simon wins 37%: KO/TKO 7%, submission 4%, decision 26%.
What if 1 question
What is the upset path?
ChatGPT
Simon's most likely upset: Simon by decision (27%).
Claude
Simon's most likely upset: Simon by decision (24%).
Gemini
Simon's most likely upset: Simon by decision (26%).
Compared with others 1 question
Do the models agree?
All models
The models agree: all 3 pick Jackson.
After the fight 1 question
What happened vs what the model said?
ChatGPT
Result: Jackson by KO/TKO in round 2. Jackson by KO/TKO was the model's number 3 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Jackson by decision (37%).
Claude
Result: Jackson by KO/TKO in round 2. Jackson by KO/TKO was the model's number 2 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Jackson by decision (32%).
Gemini
Result: Jackson by KO/TKO in round 2. Jackson by KO/TKO was the model's number 3 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Jackson by decision (40%).
More questions (19)
The result 7 questions
KO/TKO vs submission vs decision overall
ChatGPT
KO/TKO 30%, submission 6%, decision 64%.
Claude
KO/TKO 36%, submission 8%, decision 56%.
Gemini
KO/TKO 28%, submission 6%, decision 66%.
Who is more likely to finish the other?
ChatGPT
Jackson: 28%, against 8% for Simon.
Claude
Jackson: 31%, against 13% for Simon.
Gemini
Jackson: 23%, against 11% for Simon.
Can Jackson get the finish? Can Simon?
ChatGPT
Jackson: 28% (KO/TKO 25%, submission 3%). Simon: 8% (KO/TKO 5%, submission 3%).
Claude
Jackson: 31% (KO/TKO 28%, submission 3%). Simon: 13% (KO/TKO 8%, submission 5%).
Gemini
Jackson: 23% (KO/TKO 21%, submission 2%). Simon: 11% (KO/TKO 7%, submission 4%).
Who is more likely to be knocked out, and who to be submitted?
ChatGPT
Jackson is knocked out in 5% and submitted in 3%. Simon is knocked out in 25% and submitted in 3%.
Claude
Jackson is knocked out in 8% and submitted in 5%. Simon is knocked out in 28% and submitted in 3%.
Gemini
Jackson is knocked out in 7% and submitted in 4%. Simon is knocked out in 21% and submitted in 2%.
How lopsided is this fight?
ChatGPT
Lopsided: 65% vs 35%.
Claude
Lopsided: 63% vs 37%.
Gemini
Lopsided: 63% vs 37%.
Each fighter's single most likely way to win
ChatGPT
Jackson by decision: 37%. Simon by decision: 27%.
Claude
Jackson by decision: 32%. Simon by decision: 24%.
Gemini
Jackson by decision: 40%. Simon by decision: 26%.
How big an upset would it be if the underdog wins?
ChatGPT
Simon wins 35% (about 1 in 3 fights): a big upset.
Claude
Simon wins 37% (about 1 in 3 fights): a big upset.
Gemini
Simon wins 37% (about 1 in 3 fights): a big upset.
Timing 1 question
Chance it goes to a decision
ChatGPT
64%.
Claude
56%.
Gemini
66%.
What if 1 question
If it goes to the judges, who wins?
ChatGPT
If it goes to the judges: Jackson 58%, Simon 42%.
Claude
If it goes to the judges: Jackson 57%, Simon 43%.
Gemini
If it goes to the judges: Jackson 61%, Simon 39%.
Compared with others 5 questions
Where does this model differ from the others?
Claude
Biggest difference: Jackson by decision, 32% here against 39% on average for the others.
How does it compare with analyst picks?
ChatGPT
Of 23 analyst picks, 18 back Jackson and 5 back Simon. This model picks Jackson (65%).
Claude
Of 23 analyst picks, 18 back Jackson and 5 back Simon. This model picks Jackson (63%).
Gemini
Of 23 analyst picks, 18 back Jackson and 5 back Simon. This model picks Jackson (63%).
Which model is most confident on Jackson, and which on Simon?
All models
On Jackson: ChatGPT (65%). On Simon: Claude and Gemini, tied (37%).
Where do the models disagree most?
All models
Jackson by decision: from 32% (Claude) to 40% (Gemini).
Which analyst agrees most with this model?
All models
Greedo Plays MMA (Jackson by decision), JakeGerberMMA (Jackson by decision), Ryan Wohl (Jackson by decision) and FightIQ (Jackson by decision): the same winner and method as this model, tied; this model favours Jackson, most likely by decision.
How sure 4 questions
When was this forecast made, and by which model version?
ChatGPT
On 25 Sep 2026, by gpt-6-astra.
Claude
On 25 Sep 2026, by claude-sonnet-5.
Gemini
On 26 Sep 2026, by a model version the provider did not report.
What can't the model know?
FightCard
Models research public information before the fight, such as records, styles, recent results and coverage. They cannot see inside training camps, injuries nobody has reported, or what happens on the night. A small chance is not no chance: outcomes the model rates at a few percent still happen, and big favourites lose sometimes.
How is "confidence" worked out?
FightCard
Confidence restates the favourite's win chance on a 10-step scale: the win chance in tens, rounded, so 55% is 6 of 10 and 95% or more is 10 of 10. 1 to 3 reads Low, 4 to 6 Medium and 7 to 10 High. A favourite usually has at least half the chance, so most picks show 5 or more. When the model has the fighters exactly even, there is no pick and no confidence level. It is not a separate judgement by the model.
What counts as a KO, a decision or a draw?
FightCard
KO/TKO includes referee, doctor and corner stoppages, and disqualifications. A decision includes a fight stopped early and scored on the judges' cards. A stoppage between rounds counts as a finish in the round that just ended. A draw and a no contest share one outcome.
After the fight 1 question
Was the actual result in this model's top 3?
All models
Yes.
ChatGPT
Pick
Jackson
Confidence 7 of 10 · High
Most likely: Jackson by decision, about 37 in 100
Win chance: Jackson 65%, Simon 35%.
Most likely outcomes
- Jackson by decision37%
- Simon by decision27%
- Jackson by KO/TKO25%
- KO/TKO: Jackson 25%, Simon 5%.
- Submission: Jackson 3%, Simon 3%.
- Decision: Jackson 37%, Simon 27%.
Questions
The result 7 questions
Who wins, and how likely?
ChatGPT
Jackson: 65% (about 65 in 100 fights). Simon: 35%.
Other models' answers
Claude
Jackson: 63% (about 63 in 100 fights). Simon: 37%.
Gemini
Jackson: 63% (about 63 in 100 fights). Simon: 37%.
What is the single most likely outcome?
ChatGPT
Jackson by decision: 37% (about 37 in 100).
Other models' answers
Claude
Jackson by decision: 32% (about 32 in 100).
Gemini
Jackson by decision: 40% (about 40 in 100).
What are the three most likely outcomes, and why?
ChatGPT
1. Jackson by decision (37%); 2. Simon by decision (27%); 3. Jackson by KO/TKO (25%)
Other models' answers
Claude
1. Jackson by decision (32%); 2. Jackson by KO/TKO (28%); 3. Simon by decision (24%)
Gemini
1. Jackson by decision (40%); 2. Simon by decision (26%); 3. Jackson by KO/TKO (21%)
How confident is the model?
ChatGPT
7 of 10, based on Jackson's 65% win chance.
Other models' answers
Claude
6 of 10, based on Jackson's 63% win chance.
Gemini
6 of 10, based on Jackson's 63% win chance.
Does it end early or go to the judges?
ChatGPT
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 36%. Decision: 64%.
Other models' answers
Claude
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 44%. Decision: 56%.
Gemini
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 34%. Decision: 66%.
How does Jackson win?
ChatGPT
Jackson wins 65%: KO/TKO 25%, submission 3%, decision 37%.
Other models' answers
Claude
Jackson wins 63%: KO/TKO 28%, submission 3%, decision 32%.
Gemini
Jackson wins 63%: KO/TKO 21%, submission 2%, decision 40%.
How does Simon win?
ChatGPT
Simon wins 35%: KO/TKO 5%, submission 3%, decision 27%.
Other models' answers
Claude
Simon wins 37%: KO/TKO 8%, submission 5%, decision 24%.
Gemini
Simon wins 37%: KO/TKO 7%, submission 4%, decision 26%.
What if 1 question
What is the upset path?
ChatGPT
Simon's most likely upset: Simon by decision (27%).
Other models' answers
Claude
Simon's most likely upset: Simon by decision (24%).
Gemini
Simon's most likely upset: Simon by decision (26%).
Compared with others 1 question
Do the models agree?
ChatGPT
The models agree: all 3 pick Jackson.
After the fight 1 question
What happened vs what the model said?
ChatGPT
Result: Jackson by KO/TKO in round 2. Jackson by KO/TKO was the model's number 3 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Jackson by decision (37%).
Other models' answers
Claude
Result: Jackson by KO/TKO in round 2. Jackson by KO/TKO was the model's number 2 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Jackson by decision (32%).
Gemini
Result: Jackson by KO/TKO in round 2. Jackson by KO/TKO was the model's number 3 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Jackson by decision (40%).
More questions (18)
The result 7 questions
KO/TKO vs submission vs decision overall
ChatGPT
KO/TKO 30%, submission 6%, decision 64%.
Other models' answers
Claude
KO/TKO 36%, submission 8%, decision 56%.
Gemini
KO/TKO 28%, submission 6%, decision 66%.
Who is more likely to finish the other?
ChatGPT
Jackson: 28%, against 8% for Simon.
Other models' answers
Claude
Jackson: 31%, against 13% for Simon.
Gemini
Jackson: 23%, against 11% for Simon.
Can Jackson get the finish? Can Simon?
ChatGPT
Jackson: 28% (KO/TKO 25%, submission 3%). Simon: 8% (KO/TKO 5%, submission 3%).
Other models' answers
Claude
Jackson: 31% (KO/TKO 28%, submission 3%). Simon: 13% (KO/TKO 8%, submission 5%).
Gemini
Jackson: 23% (KO/TKO 21%, submission 2%). Simon: 11% (KO/TKO 7%, submission 4%).
Who is more likely to be knocked out, and who to be submitted?
ChatGPT
Jackson is knocked out in 5% and submitted in 3%. Simon is knocked out in 25% and submitted in 3%.
Other models' answers
Claude
Jackson is knocked out in 8% and submitted in 5%. Simon is knocked out in 28% and submitted in 3%.
Gemini
Jackson is knocked out in 7% and submitted in 4%. Simon is knocked out in 21% and submitted in 2%.
How lopsided is this fight?
ChatGPT
Lopsided: 65% vs 35%.
Other models' answers
Claude
Lopsided: 63% vs 37%.
Gemini
Lopsided: 63% vs 37%.
Each fighter's single most likely way to win
ChatGPT
Jackson by decision: 37%. Simon by decision: 27%.
Other models' answers
Claude
Jackson by decision: 32%. Simon by decision: 24%.
Gemini
Jackson by decision: 40%. Simon by decision: 26%.
How big an upset would it be if the underdog wins?
ChatGPT
Simon wins 35% (about 1 in 3 fights): a big upset.
Other models' answers
Claude
Simon wins 37% (about 1 in 3 fights): a big upset.
Gemini
Simon wins 37% (about 1 in 3 fights): a big upset.
Timing 1 question
Chance it goes to a decision
ChatGPT
64%.
Other models' answers
Claude
56%.
Gemini
66%.
What if 1 question
If it goes to the judges, who wins?
ChatGPT
If it goes to the judges: Jackson 58%, Simon 42%.
Other models' answers
Claude
If it goes to the judges: Jackson 57%, Simon 43%.
Gemini
If it goes to the judges: Jackson 61%, Simon 39%.
Compared with others 4 questions
How does it compare with analyst picks?
ChatGPT
Of 23 analyst picks, 18 back Jackson and 5 back Simon. This model picks Jackson (65%).
Other models' answers
Claude
Of 23 analyst picks, 18 back Jackson and 5 back Simon. This model picks Jackson (63%).
Gemini
Of 23 analyst picks, 18 back Jackson and 5 back Simon. This model picks Jackson (63%).
Which model is most confident on Jackson, and which on Simon?
ChatGPT
On Jackson: ChatGPT (65%). On Simon: Claude and Gemini, tied (37%).
Where do the models disagree most?
ChatGPT
Jackson by decision: from 32% (Claude) to 40% (Gemini).
Which analyst agrees most with this model?
ChatGPT
Greedo Plays MMA (Jackson by decision), JakeGerberMMA (Jackson by decision), Ryan Wohl (Jackson by decision) and FightIQ (Jackson by decision): the same winner and method as this model, tied; this model favours Jackson, most likely by decision.
How sure 4 questions
When was this forecast made, and by which model version?
ChatGPT
On 25 Sep 2026, by gpt-6-astra.
Other models' answers
Claude
On 25 Sep 2026, by claude-sonnet-5.
Gemini
On 26 Sep 2026, by a model version the provider did not report.
What can't the model know?
FightCard
Models research public information before the fight, such as records, styles, recent results and coverage. They cannot see inside training camps, injuries nobody has reported, or what happens on the night. A small chance is not no chance: outcomes the model rates at a few percent still happen, and big favourites lose sometimes.
How is "confidence" worked out?
FightCard
Confidence restates the favourite's win chance on a 10-step scale: the win chance in tens, rounded, so 55% is 6 of 10 and 95% or more is 10 of 10. 1 to 3 reads Low, 4 to 6 Medium and 7 to 10 High. A favourite usually has at least half the chance, so most picks show 5 or more. When the model has the fighters exactly even, there is no pick and no confidence level. It is not a separate judgement by the model.
What counts as a KO, a decision or a draw?
FightCard
KO/TKO includes referee, doctor and corner stoppages, and disqualifications. A decision includes a fight stopped early and scored on the judges' cards. A stoppage between rounds counts as a finish in the round that just ended. A draw and a no contest share one outcome.
After the fight 1 question
Was the actual result in this model's top 3?
ChatGPT
Yes.
gpt-6-astra · 25 Sep63 of 108 winner picks correct · 58% hit rate
Claude
Pick
Jackson
Confidence 6 of 10 · Medium
Most likely: Jackson by decision, about 32 in 100
Win chance: Jackson 63%, Simon 37%.
Most likely outcomes
- Jackson by decision32%
- Jackson by KO/TKO28%
- Simon by decision24%
- KO/TKO: Jackson 28%, Simon 8%.
- Submission: Jackson 3%, Simon 5%.
- Decision: Jackson 32%, Simon 24%.
Questions
The result 7 questions
Who wins, and how likely?
Claude
Jackson: 63% (about 63 in 100 fights). Simon: 37%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Jackson: 65% (about 65 in 100 fights). Simon: 35%.
What is the single most likely outcome?
Claude
Jackson by decision: 32% (about 32 in 100).
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Jackson by decision: 37% (about 37 in 100).
Gemini
Jackson by decision: 40% (about 40 in 100).
What are the three most likely outcomes, and why?
Claude
1. Jackson by decision (32%); 2. Jackson by KO/TKO (28%); 3. Simon by decision (24%)
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
1. Jackson by decision (37%); 2. Simon by decision (27%); 3. Jackson by KO/TKO (25%)
Gemini
1. Jackson by decision (40%); 2. Simon by decision (26%); 3. Jackson by KO/TKO (21%)
How confident is the model?
Claude
6 of 10, based on Jackson's 63% win chance.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
7 of 10, based on Jackson's 65% win chance.
Does it end early or go to the judges?
Claude
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 44%. Decision: 56%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 36%. Decision: 64%.
Gemini
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 34%. Decision: 66%.
How does Jackson win?
Claude
Jackson wins 63%: KO/TKO 28%, submission 3%, decision 32%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Jackson wins 65%: KO/TKO 25%, submission 3%, decision 37%.
Gemini
Jackson wins 63%: KO/TKO 21%, submission 2%, decision 40%.
How does Simon win?
Claude
Simon wins 37%: KO/TKO 8%, submission 5%, decision 24%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Simon wins 35%: KO/TKO 5%, submission 3%, decision 27%.
Gemini
Simon wins 37%: KO/TKO 7%, submission 4%, decision 26%.
What if 1 question
What is the upset path?
Claude
Simon's most likely upset: Simon by decision (24%).
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Simon's most likely upset: Simon by decision (27%).
Gemini
Simon's most likely upset: Simon by decision (26%).
Compared with others 1 question
Do the models agree?
Claude
The models agree: all 3 pick Jackson.
After the fight 1 question
What happened vs what the model said?
Claude
Result: Jackson by KO/TKO in round 2. Jackson by KO/TKO was the model's number 2 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Jackson by decision (32%).
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Result: Jackson by KO/TKO in round 2. Jackson by KO/TKO was the model's number 3 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Jackson by decision (37%).
Gemini
Result: Jackson by KO/TKO in round 2. Jackson by KO/TKO was the model's number 3 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Jackson by decision (40%).
More questions (19)
The result 7 questions
KO/TKO vs submission vs decision overall
Claude
KO/TKO 36%, submission 8%, decision 56%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
KO/TKO 30%, submission 6%, decision 64%.
Gemini
KO/TKO 28%, submission 6%, decision 66%.
Who is more likely to finish the other?
Claude
Jackson: 31%, against 13% for Simon.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Jackson: 28%, against 8% for Simon.
Gemini
Jackson: 23%, against 11% for Simon.
Can Jackson get the finish? Can Simon?
Claude
Jackson: 31% (KO/TKO 28%, submission 3%). Simon: 13% (KO/TKO 8%, submission 5%).
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Jackson: 28% (KO/TKO 25%, submission 3%). Simon: 8% (KO/TKO 5%, submission 3%).
Gemini
Jackson: 23% (KO/TKO 21%, submission 2%). Simon: 11% (KO/TKO 7%, submission 4%).
Who is more likely to be knocked out, and who to be submitted?
Claude
Jackson is knocked out in 8% and submitted in 5%. Simon is knocked out in 28% and submitted in 3%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Jackson is knocked out in 5% and submitted in 3%. Simon is knocked out in 25% and submitted in 3%.
Gemini
Jackson is knocked out in 7% and submitted in 4%. Simon is knocked out in 21% and submitted in 2%.
How lopsided is this fight?
Claude
Lopsided: 63% vs 37%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Lopsided: 65% vs 35%.
Each fighter's single most likely way to win
Claude
Jackson by decision: 32%. Simon by decision: 24%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Jackson by decision: 37%. Simon by decision: 27%.
Gemini
Jackson by decision: 40%. Simon by decision: 26%.
How big an upset would it be if the underdog wins?
Claude
Simon wins 37% (about 1 in 3 fights): a big upset.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Simon wins 35% (about 1 in 3 fights): a big upset.
Timing 1 question
Chance it goes to a decision
Claude
56%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
64%.
Gemini
66%.
What if 1 question
If it goes to the judges, who wins?
Claude
If it goes to the judges: Jackson 57%, Simon 43%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
If it goes to the judges: Jackson 58%, Simon 42%.
Gemini
If it goes to the judges: Jackson 61%, Simon 39%.
Compared with others 5 questions
Where does this model differ from the others?
Claude
Biggest difference: Jackson by decision, 32% here against 39% on average for the others.
How does it compare with analyst picks?
Claude
Of 23 analyst picks, 18 back Jackson and 5 back Simon. This model picks Jackson (63%).
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Of 23 analyst picks, 18 back Jackson and 5 back Simon. This model picks Jackson (65%).
Which model is most confident on Jackson, and which on Simon?
Claude
On Jackson: ChatGPT (65%). On Simon: Claude and Gemini, tied (37%).
Where do the models disagree most?
Claude
Jackson by decision: from 32% (Claude) to 40% (Gemini).
Which analyst agrees most with this model?
Claude
Greedo Plays MMA (Jackson by decision), JakeGerberMMA (Jackson by decision), Ryan Wohl (Jackson by decision) and FightIQ (Jackson by decision): the same winner and method as this model, tied; this model favours Jackson, most likely by decision.
How sure 4 questions
When was this forecast made, and by which model version?
Claude
On 25 Sep 2026, by claude-sonnet-5.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
On 25 Sep 2026, by gpt-6-astra.
Gemini
On 26 Sep 2026, by a model version the provider did not report.
What can't the model know?
FightCard
Models research public information before the fight, such as records, styles, recent results and coverage. They cannot see inside training camps, injuries nobody has reported, or what happens on the night. A small chance is not no chance: outcomes the model rates at a few percent still happen, and big favourites lose sometimes.
How is "confidence" worked out?
FightCard
Confidence restates the favourite's win chance on a 10-step scale: the win chance in tens, rounded, so 55% is 6 of 10 and 95% or more is 10 of 10. 1 to 3 reads Low, 4 to 6 Medium and 7 to 10 High. A favourite usually has at least half the chance, so most picks show 5 or more. When the model has the fighters exactly even, there is no pick and no confidence level. It is not a separate judgement by the model.
What counts as a KO, a decision or a draw?
FightCard
KO/TKO includes referee, doctor and corner stoppages, and disqualifications. A decision includes a fight stopped early and scored on the judges' cards. A stoppage between rounds counts as a finish in the round that just ended. A draw and a no contest share one outcome.
After the fight 1 question
Was the actual result in this model's top 3?
Claude
Yes.
claude-sonnet-5 · 25 Sep61 of 101 winner picks correct · 60% hit rate
Gemini
Pick
Jackson
Confidence 6 of 10 · Medium
Most likely: Jackson by decision, about 40 in 100
Win chance: Jackson 63%, Simon 37%.
Most likely outcomes
- Jackson by decision40%
- Simon by decision26%
- Jackson by KO/TKO21%
- KO/TKO: Jackson 21%, Simon 7%.
- Submission: Jackson 2%, Simon 4%.
- Decision: Jackson 40%, Simon 26%.
Questions
The result 7 questions
Who wins, and how likely?
Gemini
Jackson: 63% (about 63 in 100 fights). Simon: 37%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Jackson: 65% (about 65 in 100 fights). Simon: 35%.
What is the single most likely outcome?
Gemini
Jackson by decision: 40% (about 40 in 100).
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Jackson by decision: 37% (about 37 in 100).
Claude
Jackson by decision: 32% (about 32 in 100).
What are the three most likely outcomes, and why?
Gemini
1. Jackson by decision (40%); 2. Simon by decision (26%); 3. Jackson by KO/TKO (21%)
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
1. Jackson by decision (37%); 2. Simon by decision (27%); 3. Jackson by KO/TKO (25%)
Claude
1. Jackson by decision (32%); 2. Jackson by KO/TKO (28%); 3. Simon by decision (24%)
How confident is the model?
Gemini
6 of 10, based on Jackson's 63% win chance.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
7 of 10, based on Jackson's 65% win chance.
Does it end early or go to the judges?
Gemini
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 34%. Decision: 66%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 36%. Decision: 64%.
Claude
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 44%. Decision: 56%.
How does Jackson win?
Gemini
Jackson wins 63%: KO/TKO 21%, submission 2%, decision 40%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Jackson wins 65%: KO/TKO 25%, submission 3%, decision 37%.
Claude
Jackson wins 63%: KO/TKO 28%, submission 3%, decision 32%.
How does Simon win?
Gemini
Simon wins 37%: KO/TKO 7%, submission 4%, decision 26%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Simon wins 35%: KO/TKO 5%, submission 3%, decision 27%.
Claude
Simon wins 37%: KO/TKO 8%, submission 5%, decision 24%.
What if 1 question
What is the upset path?
Gemini
Simon's most likely upset: Simon by decision (26%).
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Simon's most likely upset: Simon by decision (27%).
Claude
Simon's most likely upset: Simon by decision (24%).
Compared with others 1 question
Do the models agree?
Gemini
The models agree: all 3 pick Jackson.
After the fight 1 question
What happened vs what the model said?
Gemini
Result: Jackson by KO/TKO in round 2. Jackson by KO/TKO was the model's number 3 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Jackson by decision (40%).
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Result: Jackson by KO/TKO in round 2. Jackson by KO/TKO was the model's number 3 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Jackson by decision (37%).
Claude
Result: Jackson by KO/TKO in round 2. Jackson by KO/TKO was the model's number 2 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Jackson by decision (32%).
More questions (18)
The result 7 questions
KO/TKO vs submission vs decision overall
Gemini
KO/TKO 28%, submission 6%, decision 66%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
KO/TKO 30%, submission 6%, decision 64%.
Claude
KO/TKO 36%, submission 8%, decision 56%.
Who is more likely to finish the other?
Gemini
Jackson: 23%, against 11% for Simon.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Jackson: 28%, against 8% for Simon.
Claude
Jackson: 31%, against 13% for Simon.
Can Jackson get the finish? Can Simon?
Gemini
Jackson: 23% (KO/TKO 21%, submission 2%). Simon: 11% (KO/TKO 7%, submission 4%).
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Jackson: 28% (KO/TKO 25%, submission 3%). Simon: 8% (KO/TKO 5%, submission 3%).
Claude
Jackson: 31% (KO/TKO 28%, submission 3%). Simon: 13% (KO/TKO 8%, submission 5%).
Who is more likely to be knocked out, and who to be submitted?
Gemini
Jackson is knocked out in 7% and submitted in 4%. Simon is knocked out in 21% and submitted in 2%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Jackson is knocked out in 5% and submitted in 3%. Simon is knocked out in 25% and submitted in 3%.
Claude
Jackson is knocked out in 8% and submitted in 5%. Simon is knocked out in 28% and submitted in 3%.
How lopsided is this fight?
Gemini
Lopsided: 63% vs 37%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Lopsided: 65% vs 35%.
Each fighter's single most likely way to win
Gemini
Jackson by decision: 40%. Simon by decision: 26%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Jackson by decision: 37%. Simon by decision: 27%.
Claude
Jackson by decision: 32%. Simon by decision: 24%.
How big an upset would it be if the underdog wins?
Gemini
Simon wins 37% (about 1 in 3 fights): a big upset.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Simon wins 35% (about 1 in 3 fights): a big upset.
Timing 1 question
Chance it goes to a decision
Gemini
66%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
64%.
Claude
56%.
What if 1 question
If it goes to the judges, who wins?
Gemini
If it goes to the judges: Jackson 61%, Simon 39%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
If it goes to the judges: Jackson 58%, Simon 42%.
Claude
If it goes to the judges: Jackson 57%, Simon 43%.
Compared with others 4 questions
How does it compare with analyst picks?
Gemini
Of 23 analyst picks, 18 back Jackson and 5 back Simon. This model picks Jackson (63%).
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Of 23 analyst picks, 18 back Jackson and 5 back Simon. This model picks Jackson (65%).
Which model is most confident on Jackson, and which on Simon?
Gemini
On Jackson: ChatGPT (65%). On Simon: Claude and Gemini, tied (37%).
Where do the models disagree most?
Gemini
Jackson by decision: from 32% (Claude) to 40% (Gemini).
Which analyst agrees most with this model?
Gemini
Greedo Plays MMA (Jackson by decision), JakeGerberMMA (Jackson by decision), Ryan Wohl (Jackson by decision) and FightIQ (Jackson by decision): the same winner and method as this model, tied; this model favours Jackson, most likely by decision.
How sure 4 questions
When was this forecast made, and by which model version?
Gemini
On 26 Sep 2026, by a model version the provider did not report.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
On 25 Sep 2026, by gpt-6-astra.
Claude
On 25 Sep 2026, by claude-sonnet-5.
What can't the model know?
FightCard
Models research public information before the fight, such as records, styles, recent results and coverage. They cannot see inside training camps, injuries nobody has reported, or what happens on the night. A small chance is not no chance: outcomes the model rates at a few percent still happen, and big favourites lose sometimes.
How is "confidence" worked out?
FightCard
Confidence restates the favourite's win chance on a 10-step scale: the win chance in tens, rounded, so 55% is 6 of 10 and 95% or more is 10 of 10. 1 to 3 reads Low, 4 to 6 Medium and 7 to 10 High. A favourite usually has at least half the chance, so most picks show 5 or more. When the model has the fighters exactly even, there is no pick and no confidence level. It is not a separate judgement by the model.
What counts as a KO, a decision or a draw?
FightCard
KO/TKO includes referee, doctor and corner stoppages, and disqualifications. A decision includes a fight stopped early and scored on the judges' cards. A stoppage between rounds counts as a finish in the round that just ended. A draw and a no contest share one outcome.
After the fight 1 question
Was the actual result in this model's top 3?
Gemini
Yes.
Version not reported · 26 Sep68 of 108 winner picks correct · 63% hit rate
AI-generated · Not betting advice · 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-MY-RESET
Market Odds
No current consensus line is saved on this page.
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