MMA OddsBreaker writer and Daily Podcast host covering UFC previews and betting analysis.
Scorecard
Called 14 of 17 resolved picks — every call traced to its source, no bare percentage. How Track Record works.
Not yet ranked — 17 of 20 resolved calls needed for a FightCardIQ Score
- Winner 14 3
- Method 8 6
- Round 3 2
- Underdog 3 1
Hit Miss
The running record
Every figure below is cumulative — computed over all resolved calls up to and including each card, never one card on its own. A cumulative rate settles as the denominator grows, so its flattening is arithmetic, not a verdict: read where a line sits, and read the vs. the field strip for whether this analyst gained or lost ground on the rest of the roster. Winner is scored on every resolved call; method, round and underdog each have a different and much smaller base, printed beside each one.
Hit Miss Field median Gap to the field
Adam Martin has no published Score yet, so this figure shows the record only: 2 cards of scored calls.
14 of 17 — 82% now, from 80% at their first scored card.
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Method
57% 8 of 14 correct winners that named a method
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Round
60% 3 of 5 correct winners that named a round
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Underdog
3 of 4 priced underdog calls — too few to chart a trend.
The opening point is drawn dashed and hollow: below 5 scored calls this rate is not yet a reliable figure.
Card by card
Newest card first — the charts above run oldest to newest. One mark per scored call, hits above the line and misses below. Every call is listed in Call History, below.
- Gamrot vs. Salkilld 6 hit · 1 miss
- Du Plessis vs. Usman 8 hit · 2 miss
Call History
Every logged call, grouped by event, scored on Winner, Method, and Round — nothing about a result ever sits behind a click.
underdog pick favourite pick — shown only for picks with a known pre-fight price. The percentage is the chance the market gave the fighter this analyst picked. Open a row for the price’s source and the credit it earned.
Gamrot vs. Salkilld
Event scorecard
- Winner 6 1
- Method 2 4
- Round 1 1
- Underdog 1 1
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Underdog call, market price 42.5%. Gamrot · Dec | Salkilld · Sub R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Calls Gamrot by decision. Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 42.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Underdog credit earned: 0.00 — credit is earned only on a correct call. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 60.5%. Ferreira · KO/TKO | Ferreira · Dec | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
Ferreira by knockout. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 60.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 35.0%. Montanha · Sub | Montanha · Sub R1 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Takes the underdog on a submission finish. Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 35.0% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Underdog credit earned: 0.30 — (50% − 35.0%) ÷ 50%. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 59.5%. Nurgozhay · KO/TKO · R1 | Nurgozhay · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Hit | Hit | |
Takes Nurgozhay by first-round knockout. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 59.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 72.5%. Asplund · KO/TKO · R2 | Asplund · Dec | Hit | Miss | Miss | |
Takes Asplund by second-round knockout. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 72.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 75.5%. Sousa · KO/TKO | Sousa · Dec | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
Takes Sousa by knockout. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 75.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Miller · Dec | Miller · Sub R2 | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
Takes Miller by decision. | |||||
Du Plessis vs. Usman
Event scorecard
- Winner 8 2
- Method 6 2
- Round 2 1
- Underdog 2
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Favourite call, market price 64.9%. Du Plessis · Dec | Du Plessis · Dec | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Expects Du Plessis to withstand Usman's takedown attempts, keep the fight standing, and outstrike him in a competitive five-round decision. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 64.9% before the fight, from the pre-event sportsbook consensus frozen before the fight. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 74.8%. Duncan · KO/TKO | Duncan · Dec | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
Backs Duncan's youth and athleticism to overwhelm Cannonier and produce a knockout. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 74.8% before the fight, from the pre-event sportsbook consensus frozen before the fight. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 83.5%. Barbosa · Sub · R1 | Barbosa · Sub R1 | Hit | Hit | Hit | |
Calls Barbosa an easy first-round submission pick against the UFC newcomer. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 83.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 49.5%. Harris · KO/TKO · R1 | Harris · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Hit | Hit | |
Backs the younger, undefeated Harris to knock Hines out early. Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 49.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Underdog credit earned: 0.01 — (50% − 49.5%) ÷ 50%. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 88.5%. Coria · KO/TKO · R1 | Coria · Dec | Hit | Miss | Miss | |
Calls Coria an obvious first-round knockout pick. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 88.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 58.5%. Rodrigues Jr. · KO/TKO | Franco · KO/TKO R2 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Picks Rodrigues to win by knockout, while noting the uncertainty after his suspension. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 58.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 44.5%. Delgado · Dec | Delgado · Dec | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Picks Delgado's striking to decide a close fight, while conceding Bashi could win through grappling. Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 44.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Underdog credit earned: 0.11 — (50% − 44.5%) ÷ 50%. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 64.9%. McMillen · KO/TKO | McMillen · KO/TKO R3 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Picks McMillen by knockout but would not bet the competitive matchup. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 64.9% before the fight, from the pre-event sportsbook consensus frozen before the fight. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 75.2%. Hooper · Sub | Hooper · Sub R1 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Takes Hooper by submission, though he does not feel strongly about the matchup. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 75.2% before the fight, from the pre-event sportsbook consensus frozen before the fight. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 60.5%. Ko · Dec | Lebosnoyani · Dec | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Backs Ko's overall game in a close matchup, while passing on a bet at the quoted price. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 60.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
Videos
Every source clip behind Adam Martin's logged calls.