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View photo on X ↗Crypto.com UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2
Casey O'Neill defeats Eduarda Moura by Submission
Watch the fight
Submission · armbar
Round 1 · 3:20
O'Neill vs Moura — Women's Flyweight · Crypto.com UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2
Predictions summary
Analyst Picks
(47) 92%
8% (4)
AI Predictions
64%
36%
Polymarket · historical
68%
32%
What happened
The result, the defining moments, and what the verdict means.
O'Neill brought the fight toward her pressure-and-grappling route from the opening exchange.
Moura had no chance to turn the bout into a longer striking contest once O'Neill established the decisive ground position.
O'Neill secured the armbar at 3:20 of round one for the submission win.
Pre-fight analysis — how we saw it going in
Case for O'Neill
O'Neill brings pressure and a grappling route.
Case for Moura
Moura brings athleticism and a developing all-phase game.
What We Were Watching For
- Who controls the grappling exchanges.
- Which fighter dictates the pace.
Records & career stats
- 11-2-0
- Record
- 12-2-0
- —
- Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
- —
- Scotland
- Nationality
- Brazil
- 28
- Age
- 32
- —
- StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
- —
- Source pending
- Finish rateFinish %Finish rateThe share of a fighter’s wins that ended inside the distance — by KO/TKO or submission — rather than going to the judges’ scorecards. Higher means more finishes.
- 75%
- —
- Wins by submissionSub wins
- 5
- 09:55
- Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
- 10:39
- Bangtao Muay Thai
- Team
- Fight House
Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Record is as of fight night; career stats, recent form and win totals are the latest on file and may include this fight. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.
Comments
Who Called It?
How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.
(47) 92%
WO'Neill
8% (4)
MouraL
JakeBreaksMMA
Current pick evidence
Picked: Casey O'Neill · Dec
Fight result: Casey O'Neill · Submission
JakeBreaksMMA picks Casey O'Neill by decision.
“Casey O'Neal by decision.”
Track record builds as we verify their past calls.
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 100.0% (1 hit, 0 miss, across 1 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 1 miss, across 1 method-scored calls on 1 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy: No underdog calls with a known pre-fight price.
- Winner Accuracy 100.0% 1
- Method Accuracy 0.0% 1
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog AccuracyNo underdog calls with a known pre-fight price
JetChaosMMA
Current pick evidence
Picked: Casey O'Neill · Dec
Fight result: Casey O'Neill · Submission
JetChaosMMA picks Casey O'Neill by decision.
“O'Neill to win this one by decision.”
Track record builds as we verify their past calls.
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 100.0% (1 hit, 0 miss, across 1 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 1 miss, across 1 method-scored calls on 1 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy: No underdog calls with a known pre-fight price.
- Winner Accuracy 100.0% 1
- Method Accuracy 0.0% 1
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog AccuracyNo underdog calls with a known pre-fight price
TheWagerZone ™
Current pick evidence
Picked: Casey O'Neill · Dec
Fight result: Casey O'Neill · Submission
TheWagerZone transcript pick: Casey O’Neill by Decision.
“But I'm going to say Casey O'Neal wins by decision.”
Track record: winner called in 11 of 14 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 78.6% (11 hit, 3 miss, across 14 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 30.0% (3 hit, 7 miss, across 10 method-scored calls on 14 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 33.3% (1 hit, 2 miss, across 3 round-scored calls on 14 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 100.0% (2 hit, 0 miss, across 2 underdog calls on 14 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 78.6% 11 3
- Method Accuracy 30.0% 3 7
- Round Accuracy 33.3% 1 2
- Underdog Accuracy 100.0% 2
Couch Warrior Podcast
Current pick evidence
Picked: Casey O'Neill
Fight result: Casey O'Neill · Submission
Couch Warrior Podcast selects Casey O'Neill in the final UFC 331 pick recap.
“I'm going Casey.”
Track record: winner called in 9 of 12 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 75.0% (9 hit, 3 miss, across 12 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 100.0% (2 hit, 0 miss, across 2 underdog calls on 12 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 75.0% 9 3
- Method AccuracyCalls the winner, not the method
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 100.0% 2
MMA Tugg
Current pick evidence
Picked: Casey O'Neill · Dec
Fight result: Casey O'Neill · Submission
MMA Tugg transcript pick: Casey O'Neill by decision.
“Long story short, I took Casey O'Neill to win this fight by decision... Give me Casey O'Neill by decision. I think she's better than Eduardo Mora.”
Track record: winner called in 9 of 12 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 75.0% (9 hit, 3 miss, across 12 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 25.0% (2 hit, 6 miss, across 8 method-scored calls on 12 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 100.0% (1 hit, 0 miss, across 1 round-scored calls on 12 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 100.0% (2 hit, 0 miss, across 2 underdog calls on 12 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 75.0% 9 3
- Method Accuracy 25.0% 2 6
- Round Accuracy 100.0% 1
- Underdog Accuracy 100.0% 2
Dissection Of Violence
Current pick evidence
Picked: Casey O'Neill
Fight result: Casey O'Neill · Submission
Dissection Of Violence transcript pick: Casey O’Neill (winner only).
“I gotta go with Casey O'Neal here.”
Track record: winner called in 8 of 11 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 72.7% (8 hit, 3 miss, across 11 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 50.0% (1 hit, 1 miss, across 2 method-scored calls on 11 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy: No underdog calls with a known pre-fight price.
- Winner Accuracy 72.7% 8 3
- Method Accuracy 50.0% 1 1
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog AccuracyNo underdog calls with a known pre-fight price
Billy Ward
Current pick evidence
Picked: Casey O'Neill
Fight result: Casey O'Neill · Submission
Action Network's UFC 331 article lists Billy Ward's pick as Casey O'Neill on the moneyline.
Track record: winner called in 5 of 7 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 71.4% (5 hit, 2 miss, across 7 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (1 hit, 2 miss, across 3 underdog calls on 7 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 71.4% 5 2
- Method AccuracyCalls the winner, not the method
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 33.3% 1 2
Bedtime MMA
Current pick evidence
Picked: Casey O'Neill · Dec
Fight result: Casey O'Neill · Submission
Bedtime MMA transcript pick: Casey O'Neill by decision.
“I'm going to go with Casey O'Neal. I think she's probably going to win this by decision.”
Track record: winner called in 132 of 185 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 71.4% (132 hit, 53 miss, across 185 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 61.9% (60 hit, 37 miss, across 97 method-scored calls on 185 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 40.7% (11 hit, 16 miss, across 27 round-scored calls on 185 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 48.7% (19 hit, 20 miss, across 39 underdog calls on 185 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 71.4% 132 53
- Method Accuracy 61.9% 60 37
- Round Accuracy 40.7% 11 16
- Underdog Accuracy 48.7% 19 20
TheWeasle
Current pick evidence
Picked: Casey O'Neill · Dec
Fight result: Casey O'Neill · Submission
TheWeasle transcript pick: Casey O’Neill by Decision.
“I'm ultimately going to go with Casey O'Neal winning this fight by decision.”
Track record: winner called in 115 of 163 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 70.6% (115 hit, 48 miss, across 163 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 61.8% (47 hit, 29 miss, across 76 method-scored calls on 163 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 36.5% (19 hit, 33 miss, across 52 round-scored calls on 163 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 52.9% (9 hit, 8 miss, across 17 underdog calls on 163 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 70.6% 115 48
- Method Accuracy 61.8% 47 29
- Round Accuracy 36.5% 19 33
- Underdog Accuracy 52.9% 9 8
FightIQ
Current pick evidence
Picked: Casey O'Neill · Dec
Fight result: Casey O'Neill · Submission
FightIQ's public record lists Casey O'Neill as its pick over Eduarda Moura.
Track record: winner called in 159 of 227 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 70.0% (159 hit, 68 miss, across 227 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 39.9% (59 hit, 89 miss, across 148 method-scored calls on 227 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 55.0% (11 hit, 9 miss, across 20 underdog calls on 227 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 70.0% 159 68
- Method Accuracy 39.9% 59 89
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 55.0% 11 9
Tom Feely
Current pick evidence
Picked: Casey O'Neill · Dec
Fight result: Casey O'Neill · Submission
Tom Feely expects O'Neill's recent improvements to carry her to a decision.
Track record: winner called in 23 of 34 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 67.6% (23 hit, 11 miss, across 34 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 66.7% (14 hit, 7 miss, across 21 method-scored calls on 34 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 50.0% (5 hit, 5 miss, across 10 round-scored calls on 34 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (1 hit, 2 miss, across 3 underdog calls on 34 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 67.6% 23 11
- Method Accuracy 66.7% 14 7
- Round Accuracy 50.0% 5 5
- Underdog Accuracy 33.3% 1 2
MMA Lock of the Night
Current pick evidence
Picked: Casey O'Neill · KO/TKO
Fight result: Casey O'Neill · Submission
MMA Lock of the Night picks Casey O'Neill and says the official prediction is a TKO, while leaving the round as a lean rather than a firm call.
Track record: winner called in 85 of 126 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 67.5% (85 hit, 41 miss, across 126 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 59.5% (25 hit, 17 miss, across 42 method-scored calls on 126 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 55.6% (5 hit, 4 miss, across 9 round-scored calls on 126 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 36.8% (7 hit, 12 miss, across 19 underdog calls on 126 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 67.5% 85 41
- Method Accuracy 59.5% 25 17
- Round Accuracy 55.6% 5 4
- Underdog Accuracy 36.8% 7 12
AJ Devito
Current pick evidence
Picked: Casey O'Neill · Dec
Fight result: Casey O'Neill · Submission
AJ picks Casey O'Neill, leaning toward her pressure and grappling control to win a decision.
“And I'm going to pick Casey O'Neal probably to win a decision.”
Track record: winner called in 175 of 264 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 66.3% (175 hit, 89 miss, across 264 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 58.7% (61 hit, 43 miss, across 104 method-scored calls on 264 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 77.8% (7 hit, 2 miss, across 9 round-scored calls on 264 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 36.4% (12 hit, 21 miss, across 33 underdog calls on 264 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 66.3% 175 89
- Method Accuracy 58.7% 61 43
- Round Accuracy 77.8% 7 2
- Underdog Accuracy 36.4% 12 21
The MMA Guru
Current pick evidence
Picked: Casey O'Neill · Dec
Fight result: Casey O'Neill · Submission
The MMA Guru transcript pick: Casey O’Neill by Decision.
“Casey O'Neal is going to dig deep and win that competitive classic women's MMA 2928 decision. So, I'm going to go with Casey O'Neal.”
Track record: winner called in 213 of 322 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 66.1% (213 hit, 109 miss, across 322 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 53.4% (62 hit, 54 miss, across 116 method-scored calls on 322 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 35.9% (14 hit, 25 miss, across 39 round-scored calls on 322 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 47.4% (18 hit, 20 miss, across 38 underdog calls on 322 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 66.1% 213 109
- Method Accuracy 53.4% 62 54
- Round Accuracy 35.9% 14 25
- Underdog Accuracy 47.4% 18 20
DFS By The Numbers
Current pick evidence
Picked: Casey O'Neill · Sub · Round 3
Fight result: Casey O'Neill · Submission
Transcript-reviewed DFS By The Numbers selection.
“O'Neal is going to finish Mara in the third round by submission.”
Track record: winner called in 112 of 173 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 64.7% (112 hit, 61 miss, across 173 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 61.0% (61 hit, 39 miss, across 100 method-scored calls on 173 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 38.3% (18 hit, 29 miss, across 47 round-scored calls on 173 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 36.4% (8 hit, 14 miss, across 22 underdog calls on 173 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 64.7% 112 61
- Method Accuracy 61.0% 61 39
- Round Accuracy 38.3% 18 29
- Underdog Accuracy 36.4% 8 14
MMA Husky Hustler
Current pick evidence
Picked: Casey O'Neill · Dec
Fight result: Casey O'Neill · Submission
MMA Husky Hustler transcript pick: Casey O’Neill by Decision.
“Give me Casey O'Neal by decision.”
Track record: winner called in 20 of 31 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 64.5% (20 hit, 11 miss, across 31 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 33.3% (6 hit, 12 miss, across 18 method-scored calls on 31 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 50.0% (2 hit, 2 miss, across 4 underdog calls on 31 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 64.5% 20 11
- Method Accuracy 33.3% 6 12
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 50.0% 2 2
We Want Picks
Current pick evidence
Picked: Casey O'Neill
Fight result: Casey O'Neill · Submission
Rejects Eduarda Moura as the pick and says Casey O'Neill's footwork is the more likely winning side.
“I'm not going to pick her. I think Casey O'Neal's footwork is probably too much.”
Track record: winner called in 93 of 145 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 64.1% (93 hit, 52 miss, across 145 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 40.0% (2 hit, 3 miss, across 5 method-scored calls on 145 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Underdog Accuracy 34.5% (10 hit, 19 miss, across 29 underdog calls on 145 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 64.1% 93 52
- Method Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
- Round AccuracyNamed rounds — none on a correct call yet
- Underdog Accuracy 34.5% 10 19
138 MMA
Current pick evidence
Picked: Casey O'Neill
Fight result: Casey O'Neill · Submission
138 MMA transcript pick: Casey O'Neill.
“I'm going to go with Casey O'Neal. So, I'm gonna take O'Neal.”
Track record: winner called in 42 of 66 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 63.6% (42 hit, 24 miss, across 66 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 33.3% (1 hit, 2 miss, across 3 method-scored calls on 66 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 43.8% (7 hit, 9 miss, across 16 underdog calls on 66 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 63.6% 42 24
- Method Accuracy 33.3% 1 2
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 43.8% 7 9
MMA JOEY
Current pick evidence
Picked: Casey O'Neill · Dec
Fight result: Casey O'Neill · Submission
MMA JOEY picks Casey O'Neill by decision, expecting her cleaner striking and stronger gas tank to outwork Eduarda Moura after Moura slows down.
“I'm going to say Casey O'Neal gets it done via decision.”
Track record: winner called in 78 of 125 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 62.4% (78 hit, 47 miss, across 125 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 46.6% (27 hit, 31 miss, across 58 method-scored calls on 125 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 28.1% (9 hit, 23 miss, across 32 round-scored calls on 125 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (7 hit, 14 miss, across 21 underdog calls on 125 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 62.4% 78 47
- Method Accuracy 46.6% 27 31
- Round Accuracy 28.1% 9 23
- Underdog Accuracy 33.3% 7 14
HopperMMA
Current pick evidence
Picked: Casey O'Neill · Dec
Fight result: Casey O'Neill · Submission
Transcript-reviewed HopperoMMA selection.
“I'm going to go Casey O'Neal by decision.”
Track record: winner called in 92 of 148 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 62.2% (92 hit, 56 miss, across 148 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 60.8% (45 hit, 29 miss, across 74 method-scored calls on 148 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 48.8% (20 hit, 21 miss, across 41 round-scored calls on 148 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 26.9% (7 hit, 19 miss, across 26 underdog calls on 148 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 62.2% 92 56
- Method Accuracy 60.8% 45 29
- Round Accuracy 48.8% 20 21
- Underdog Accuracy 26.9% 7 19
James Lynch
Current pick evidence
Picked: Casey O'Neill
Fight result: Casey O'Neill · Submission
MMAOddsBreaker's UFC 331 staff-picks table lists James Lynch on Casey O'Neill.
Track record: winner called in 36 of 59 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 61.0% (36 hit, 23 miss, across 59 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 45.0% (9 hit, 11 miss, across 20 method-scored calls on 59 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 5 miss, across 5 round-scored calls on 59 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 60.0% (3 hit, 2 miss, across 5 underdog calls on 59 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 61.0% 36 23
- Method Accuracy 45.0% 9 11
- Round Accuracy 0.0% 5
- Underdog Accuracy 60.0% 3 2
James Blissett
Current pick evidence
Picked: Casey O'Neill · KO/TKO · Round 3
Fight result: Casey O'Neill · Submission
Lucrative James transcript pick: Casey O'Neill by KO/TKO in round 3.
“I got her via third round stoppage. Casey O'Neil via knockout will be my official prediction.”
Track record: winner called in 48 of 79 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 60.8% (48 hit, 31 miss, across 79 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 54.2% (26 hit, 22 miss, across 48 method-scored calls on 79 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 50.0% (3 hit, 3 miss, across 6 round-scored calls on 79 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 41.2% (7 hit, 10 miss, across 17 underdog calls on 79 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 60.8% 48 31
- Method Accuracy 54.2% 26 22
- Round Accuracy 50.0% 3 3
- Underdog Accuracy 41.2% 7 10
Once Upon A Slugfest
Current pick evidence
Picked: Casey O'Neill
Fight result: Casey O'Neill · Submission
Once Upon A Slugfest transcript pick: Casey O'Neill (winner only).
“I think my subscribers and I picked Casey O'Neill.”
Track record: winner called in 6 of 10 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 60.0% (6 hit, 4 miss, across 10 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy: No underdog calls with a known pre-fight price.
- Winner Accuracy 60.0% 6 4
- Method AccuracyCalls the winner, not the method
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog AccuracyNo underdog calls with a known pre-fight price
MMA Prediction Guru (MMAPG)
Source unavailable — 9:30
MMA Prediction Guru (MMAPG) on YouTube ↗
Current pick evidence
Picked: Casey O'Neill · KO/TKO · Round 2
Fight result: Casey O'Neill · Submission
MMAPG transcript pick: Casey O’Neill by KO/TKO in round 2.
“I'm going to predict she'll win via TKO in round two in this fight.”
Track record: winner called in 41 of 69 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 59.4% (41 hit, 28 miss, across 69 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 57.7% (15 hit, 11 miss, across 26 method-scored calls on 69 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 12.5% (1 hit, 7 miss, across 8 round-scored calls on 69 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 30.8% (4 hit, 9 miss, across 13 underdog calls on 69 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 59.4% 41 28
- Method Accuracy 57.7% 15 11
- Round Accuracy 12.5% 1 7
- Underdog Accuracy 30.8% 4 9
MMA Mathletes
Current pick evidence
Picked: Casey O'Neill
Fight result: Casey O'Neill · Submission
MMA Mathletes includes Casey O'Neill in its UFC 331 full-card parlay.
Track record: winner called in 32 of 54 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 59.3% (32 hit, 22 miss, across 54 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 63.6% (7 hit, 4 miss, across 11 method-scored calls on 54 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 100.0% (1 hit, 0 miss, across 1 round-scored calls on 54 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 28.6% (2 hit, 5 miss, across 7 underdog calls on 54 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 59.3% 32 22
- Method Accuracy 63.6% 7 4
- Round Accuracy 100.0% 1
- Underdog Accuracy 28.6% 2 5
GypMMA
Current pick evidence
Picked: Casey O'Neill · KO/TKO · Round 3
Fight result: Casey O'Neill · Submission
GypMMA picks Casey O’Neill by third-round TKO.
“I think she'll get a round three TKO.”
Track record: winner called in 10 of 17 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 58.8% (10 hit, 7 miss, across 17 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 50.0% (3 hit, 3 miss, across 6 method-scored calls on 17 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 3 miss, across 3 round-scored calls on 17 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 40.0% (2 hit, 3 miss, across 5 underdog calls on 17 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 58.8% 10 7
- Method Accuracy 50.0% 3 3
- Round Accuracy 0.0% 3
- Underdog Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
KingofCrackdown5095
Current pick evidence
Picked: Casey O'Neill · Dec
Fight result: Casey O'Neill · Submission
KingofCrackdown5095 picks Casey O’Neill by decision.
“I have Casey O'Neill via decision.”
Track record: winner called in 37 of 63 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 58.7% (37 hit, 26 miss, across 63 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 65.6% (21 hit, 11 miss, across 32 method-scored calls on 63 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 42.1% (8 hit, 11 miss, across 19 round-scored calls on 63 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 42.9% (3 hit, 4 miss, across 7 underdog calls on 63 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 58.7% 37 26
- Method Accuracy 65.6% 21 11
- Round Accuracy 42.1% 8 11
- Underdog Accuracy 42.9% 3 4
Marcel Dorff
Current pick evidence
Picked: Casey O'Neill
Fight result: Casey O'Neill · Submission
MMAOddsBreaker's UFC 331 staff-picks table lists Big Marcel (Marcel Dorff) on Casey O'Neill.
Track record: winner called in 17 of 29 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 58.6% (17 hit, 12 miss, across 29 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 54.5% (6 hit, 5 miss, across 11 method-scored calls on 29 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 20.0% (1 hit, 4 miss, across 5 round-scored calls on 29 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 25.0% (1 hit, 3 miss, across 4 underdog calls on 29 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 58.6% 17 12
- Method Accuracy 54.5% 6 5
- Round Accuracy 20.0% 1 4
- Underdog Accuracy 25.0% 1 3
Kunath
Current pick evidence
Picked: Casey O'Neill · Dec
Fight result: Casey O'Neill · Submission
Transcript-reviewed Kunath selection.
“Give me King Casey by decision.”
Track record: winner called in 38 of 65 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 58.5% (38 hit, 27 miss, across 65 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 56.7% (17 hit, 13 miss, across 30 method-scored calls on 65 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 40.0% (2 hit, 3 miss, across 5 round-scored calls on 65 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 25.0% (3 hit, 9 miss, across 12 underdog calls on 65 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 58.5% 38 27
- Method Accuracy 56.7% 17 13
- Round Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
- Underdog Accuracy 25.0% 3 9
Angelo Bodetti
Current pick evidence
Picked: Casey O'Neill
Fight result: Casey O'Neill · Submission
Transcript-reviewed We Want Picks selection.
“I think Casey O'Neal wins this fight.”
Track record: winner called in 29 of 50 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 58.0% (29 hit, 21 miss, across 50 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 60.0% (3 hit, 2 miss, across 5 method-scored calls on 50 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 100.0% (1 hit, 0 miss, across 1 round-scored calls on 50 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 40.0% (2 hit, 3 miss, across 5 underdog calls on 50 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 58.0% 29 21
- Method Accuracy 60.0% 3 2
- Round Accuracy 100.0% 1
- Underdog Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
Artem MMA
Current pick evidence
Picked: Casey O'Neill · Dec
Fight result: Casey O'Neill · Submission
Artem MMA favors Casey O’Neill’s pace, volume, and takedown defense.
“I'm going to go with Casey O'Neal to win this fight by decision.”
Track record: winner called in 55 of 95 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 57.9% (55 hit, 40 miss, across 95 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 63.8% (30 hit, 17 miss, across 47 method-scored calls on 95 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 60.0% (6 hit, 4 miss, across 10 round-scored calls on 95 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 23.5% (4 hit, 13 miss, across 17 underdog calls on 95 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 57.9% 55 40
- Method Accuracy 63.8% 30 17
- Round Accuracy 60.0% 6 4
- Underdog Accuracy 23.5% 4 13
Adam Martin
Current pick evidence
Picked: Casey O'Neill
Fight result: Casey O'Neill · Submission
MMAOddsBreaker's UFC 331 staff-picks table lists Adam Martin on Casey O'Neill.
Track record: winner called in 23 of 40 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 57.5% (23 hit, 17 miss, across 40 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 40.0% (4 hit, 6 miss, across 10 method-scored calls on 40 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 1 miss, across 1 round-scored calls on 40 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 40.0% (2 hit, 3 miss, across 5 underdog calls on 40 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 57.5% 23 17
- Method Accuracy 40.0% 4 6
- Round Accuracy 0.0% 1
- Underdog Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
LF MMA
Current pick evidence
Picked: Casey O'Neill
Fight result: Casey O'Neill · Submission
LF MMA picks Casey O'Neill over Eduarda Moura, expecting O'Neill's defense and cleaner striking to prevail.
“give me O'Neill”
Track record: winner called in 8 of 14 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 57.1% (8 hit, 6 miss, across 14 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 50.0% (1 hit, 1 miss, across 2 underdog calls on 14 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 57.1% 8 6
- Method AccuracyCalls the winner, not the method
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 50.0% 1 1
Anatoly Pimentel
Current pick evidence
Picked: Casey O'Neill · Dec
Fight result: Casey O'Neill · Submission
Anatoly Pimentel's BetMGM UFC 331 preview predicts Casey O'Neill by decision.
Track record: winner called in 12 of 22 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 54.5% (12 hit, 10 miss, across 22 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 58.3% (7 hit, 5 miss, across 12 method-scored calls on 22 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 1 miss, across 1 underdog calls on 22 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 54.5% 12 10
- Method Accuracy 58.3% 7 5
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 0.0% 1
Cole Shelton
Current pick evidence
Picked: Casey O'Neill
Fight result: Casey O'Neill · Submission
MMAOddsBreaker's UFC 331 staff-picks table lists Cole Shelton on Casey O'Neill.
Track record: winner called in 62 of 116 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 53.4% (62 hit, 54 miss, across 116 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 87.5% (7 hit, 1 miss, across 8 method-scored calls on 116 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Underdog Accuracy 16.7% (3 hit, 15 miss, across 18 underdog calls on 116 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 53.4% 62 54
- Method Accuracy 87.5% 7 1
- Round AccuracyNamed rounds — none on a correct call yet
- Underdog Accuracy 16.7% 3 15
Half The Battle
Current pick evidence
Picked: Casey O'Neill
Fight result: Casey O'Neill · Submission
Daniel Levy transcript pick: Casey O’Neill (winner only).
“I'm leaning a little bit towards Casey O'Neal to get it done.”
Track record: winner called in 58 of 109 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 53.2% (58 hit, 51 miss, across 109 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 71.4% (10 hit, 4 miss, across 14 method-scored calls on 109 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 66.7% (2 hit, 1 miss, across 3 round-scored calls on 109 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 21.4% (6 hit, 22 miss, across 28 underdog calls on 109 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 53.2% 58 51
- Method Accuracy 71.4% 10 4
- Round Accuracy 66.7% 2 1
- Underdog Accuracy 21.4% 6 22
TonyHasDiedMMA
Current pick evidence
Picked: Casey O'Neill · Dec
Fight result: Casey O'Neill · Submission
Transcript-reviewed TonyHasDiedMMA selection.
“I'm going to take Casey O'Neal to win this one by decision.”
Track record: winner called in 28 of 53 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 52.8% (28 hit, 25 miss, across 53 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 47.1% (8 hit, 9 miss, across 17 method-scored calls on 53 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 71.4% (5 hit, 2 miss, across 7 round-scored calls on 53 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 20.0% (2 hit, 8 miss, across 10 underdog calls on 53 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 52.8% 28 25
- Method Accuracy 47.1% 8 9
- Round Accuracy 71.4% 5 2
- Underdog Accuracy 20.0% 2 8
MikesMMAPicks
Current pick evidence
Picked: Casey O'Neill
Fight result: Casey O'Neill · Submission
MMAOddsBreaker's UFC 331 staff-picks table lists MikesMMAPicks on Casey O'Neill.
Track record: winner called in 25 of 48 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 52.1% (25 hit, 23 miss, across 48 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (3 hit, 6 miss, across 9 underdog calls on 48 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 52.1% 25 23
- Method AccuracyCalls the winner, not the method
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 33.3% 3 6
Bookie Beatdown
Current pick evidence
Picked: Casey O'Neill
Fight result: Casey O'Neill · Submission
Both hosts agree that Casey O’Neill gets her hand raised.
“Casey O'Neil gets her hand raised. We're on the same page.”
Track record: winner called in 23 of 45 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 51.1% (23 hit, 22 miss, across 45 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 2 miss, across 2 method-scored calls on 45 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Underdog Accuracy 36.4% (4 hit, 7 miss, across 11 underdog calls on 45 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 51.1% 23 22
- Method Accuracy 0.0% 2
- Round AccuracyNamed rounds — none on a correct call yet
- Underdog Accuracy 36.4% 4 7
Bert MMA
Current pick evidence
Picked: Casey O'Neill
Fight result: Casey O'Neill · Submission
Bert MMA gives Casey O'Neill a slight lean over Eduarda Moura without committing to a finish method.
“just another slight lean for Casey.”
Track record: winner called in 17 of 36 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 47.2% (17 hit, 19 miss, across 36 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 55.6% (5 hit, 4 miss, across 9 method-scored calls on 36 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 50.0% (1 hit, 1 miss, across 2 round-scored calls on 36 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 36.4% (4 hit, 7 miss, across 11 underdog calls on 36 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 47.2% 17 19
- Method Accuracy 55.6% 5 4
- Round Accuracy 50.0% 1 1
- Underdog Accuracy 36.4% 4 7
Zain Bando
Current pick evidence
Picked: Casey O'Neill
Fight result: Casey O'Neill · Submission
MMAOddsBreaker's UFC 331 staff-picks table lists Zain Bando on Casey O'Neill.
Track record: winner called in 17 of 36 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 47.2% (17 hit, 19 miss, across 36 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 20.0% (1 hit, 4 miss, across 5 underdog calls on 36 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 47.2% 17 19
- Method AccuracyCalls the winner, not the method
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 20.0% 1 4
Uselyis
Current pick evidence
Picked: Casey O'Neill · Dec
Fight result: Casey O'Neill · Submission
Transcript-reviewed Uselyis selection.
“I like her by decision.”
Track record: winner called in 25 of 54 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 46.3% (25 hit, 29 miss, across 54 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 52.9% (9 hit, 8 miss, across 17 method-scored calls on 54 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 100.0% (1 hit, 0 miss, across 1 round-scored calls on 54 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 7 miss, across 7 underdog calls on 54 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 46.3% 25 29
- Method Accuracy 52.9% 9 8
- Round Accuracy 100.0% 1
- Underdog Accuracy 0.0% 7
Andrew Sumian
Current pick evidence
Picked: Casey O'Neill
Fight result: Casey O'Neill · Submission
Published UFC 331 fight-picks table selects Casey O'Neill.
Track record: winner called in 18 of 40 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 45.0% (18 hit, 22 miss, across 40 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 25.0% (1 hit, 3 miss, across 4 method-scored calls on 40 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 1 miss, across 1 round-scored calls on 40 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (4 hit, 8 miss, across 12 underdog calls on 40 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 45.0% 18 22
- Method Accuracy 25.0% 1 3
- Round Accuracy 0.0% 1
- Underdog Accuracy 33.3% 4 8
Matthew Petela
Current pick evidence
Picked: Casey O'Neill
Fight result: Casey O'Neill · Submission
Published UFC 331 fight-picks table selects Casey O'Neill.
Track record: winner called in 18 of 40 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 45.0% (18 hit, 22 miss, across 40 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 1 miss, across 1 method-scored calls on 40 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Underdog Accuracy 36.8% (7 hit, 12 miss, across 19 underdog calls on 40 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 45.0% 18 22
- Method Accuracy 0.0% 1
- Round AccuracyNamed rounds — none on a correct call yet
- Underdog Accuracy 36.8% 7 12
Chris White
Current pick evidence
Picked: Casey O'Neill
Fight result: Casey O'Neill · Submission
MMAOddsBreaker's UFC 331 staff-picks table lists Chris White on Casey O'Neill.
Track record: winner called in 19 of 48 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 39.6% (19 hit, 29 miss, across 48 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 16.7% (2 hit, 10 miss, across 12 underdog calls on 48 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 39.6% 19 29
- Method AccuracyCalls the winner, not the method
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 16.7% 2 10
FIGHT//AI
Current pick evidence
Picked: Casey O'Neill
Fight result: Casey O'Neill · Submission
FIGHT//AI’s selected value bet names Casey O'Neill.
Track record: winner called in 49 of 153 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 32.0% (49 hit, 104 miss, across 153 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 50.0% (1 hit, 1 miss, across 2 method-scored calls on 153 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 20.0% (20 hit, 80 miss, across 100 underdog calls on 153 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 32.0% 49 104
- Method Accuracy 50.0% 1 1
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 20.0% 20 80
Punters Edge
Current pick evidence
Picked: Casey O'Neill · Dec
Fight result: Casey O'Neill · Submission
Transcript-reviewed Punters Edge selection.
“I'm taking O'Neal to win this fight by decision.”
Track record: winner called in 4 of 13 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 30.8% (4 hit, 9 miss, across 13 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 25.0% (1 hit, 3 miss, across 4 method-scored calls on 13 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Underdog Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 3 miss, across 3 underdog calls on 13 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 30.8% 4 9
- Method Accuracy 25.0% 1 3
- Round AccuracyNamed rounds — none on a correct call yet
- Underdog Accuracy 0.0% 3
Lucas Tracy
Current pick evidence
Picked: Eduarda Moura · KO/TKO
Fight result: Casey O'Neill · Submission
Lucas Tracy transcript pick: Eduarda Moura by KO/TKO.
“I am going to pick Eduarda Moura to win this fight by KO.”
Track record: winner called in 44 of 65 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 67.7% (44 hit, 21 miss, across 65 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 62.5% (10 hit, 6 miss, across 16 method-scored calls on 65 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 50.0% (3 hit, 3 miss, across 6 round-scored calls on 65 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 38.9% (7 hit, 11 miss, across 18 underdog calls on 65 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 67.7% 44 21
- Method Accuracy 62.5% 10 6
- Round Accuracy 50.0% 3 3
- Underdog Accuracy 38.9% 7 11
Chris Schweppe
Current pick evidence
Picked: Eduarda Moura · Dec
Fight result: Casey O'Neill · Submission
Schweppe says O’Neill looked improved after an 18-month layoff and that her striking could be as high as 70.
Track record: winner called in 53 of 99 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 53.5% (53 hit, 46 miss, across 99 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 47.2% (25 hit, 28 miss, across 53 method-scored calls on 99 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 33.3% (10 hit, 20 miss, across 30 round-scored calls on 99 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (10 hit, 20 miss, across 30 underdog calls on 99 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 53.5% 53 46
- Method Accuracy 47.2% 25 28
- Round Accuracy 33.3% 10 20
- Underdog Accuracy 33.3% 10 20
Nick Kalikas
Current pick evidence
Picked: Eduarda Moura
Fight result: Casey O'Neill · Submission
MMAOddsBreaker's UFC 331 staff-picks table lists Nick Kalikas on Casey O'Neill.
Track record: winner called in 23 of 48 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 47.9% (23 hit, 25 miss, across 48 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 28.6% (2 hit, 5 miss, across 7 underdog calls on 48 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 47.9% 23 25
- Method AccuracyCalls the winner, not the method
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 28.6% 2 5
Kyle Marley
Current pick evidence
Picked: Eduarda Moura · Sub
Fight result: Casey O'Neill · Submission
SportsLine reports Kyle Marley's UFC 331 pick as Eduarda Moura by submission over Casey O'Neill.
Track record: winner called in 2 of 5 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 40.0% (2 hit, 3 miss, across 5 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 2 miss, across 2 method-scored calls on 5 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 1 miss, across 1 underdog calls on 5 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
- Method Accuracy 0.0% 2
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 0.0% 1
No pick
View full track record (5 calls)
NolanKnowsMMA
Current pick evidence
No pick has been recorded.
Fight result: Casey O'Neill · Submission
Official bet is fight ends by finish at +150; no winner is named.
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 40.0% (2 hit, 3 miss, across 5 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 1 miss, across 1 underdog calls on 5 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
- Method AccuracyNamed methods — none on a correct call yet
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 0.0% 1
Analyst picks: JakeBreaksMMA Hit; JetChaosMMA Hit; TheWagerZone ™ Hit; Couch Warrior Podcast Hit; MMA Tugg Hit; Dissection Of Violence Hit; Billy Ward Hit; Bedtime MMA Hit; TheWeasle Hit; FightIQ Hit; Lucas Tracy Miss; Tom Feely Hit; MMA Lock of the Night Hit; AJ Devito Hit; The MMA Guru Hit; DFS By The Numbers Hit; MMA Husky Hustler Hit; We Want Picks Hit; 138 MMA Hit; MMA JOEY Hit; HopperMMA Hit; James Lynch Hit; James Blissett Hit; Once Upon A Slugfest Hit; MMA Prediction Guru (MMAPG) Hit; MMA Mathletes Hit; GypMMA Hit; KingofCrackdown5095 Hit; Marcel Dorff Hit; Kunath Hit; Angelo Bodetti Hit; Artem MMA Hit; Adam Martin Hit; LF MMA Hit; Anatoly Pimentel Hit; Chris Schweppe Miss; Cole Shelton Hit; Half The Battle Hit; TonyHasDiedMMA Hit; MikesMMAPicks Hit; Bookie Beatdown Hit; Nick Kalikas Miss; Bert MMA Hit; Zain Bando Hit; Uselyis Hit; Andrew Sumian Hit; Matthew Petela Hit; Kyle Marley Miss; Chris White Hit; FIGHT//AI Hit; Punters Edge Hit; NolanKnowsMMA no pick.
47 of 51 nailed it.
Chart: selected analyst picks, not a win probability. Pill badge: Winner hit rate (total scored picks before this event).
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The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.
Results
Each agent’s latest pre-fight call vs result; forecast dates may differ. Market: sportsbook snapshot or historic market reconstruction.
Actual O'Neill · Submission · R1
Closest probability Claude put 65% on O'Neill.
63%
O'Neill
37%
Moura
PickO'Neill · DecisionActualO'Neill · Submission · R1
WinnerHitMethodMissRoundNot calledHistoric market favouriteHistoric market favourite: FavouriteThe selected fighter had the higher market-implied chance of winning.Historic market favourite: favourite call
65%
O'Neill
35%
Moura
PickO'Neill · DecisionActualO'Neill · Submission · R1
WinnerHitMethodMissRoundNot calledHistoric market favouriteHistoric market favourite: FavouriteThe selected fighter had the higher market-implied chance of winning.Historic market favourite: favourite call
63%
O'Neill
37%
Moura
PickO'Neill · DecisionActualO'Neill · Submission · R1
WinnerHitMethodMissRoundNot calledHistoric market favouriteHistoric market favourite: FavouriteThe selected fighter had the higher market-implied chance of winning.Historic market favourite: favourite callAI Predictions — latest pre-fight calls
Frozen final publication identity; the calls below retain each agent’s own publication.AI Predictions
Each agent’s latest pre-fight forecast. Dates are shown per agent.
ChatGPT
63 of 108 winner picks correct · 58% hit rate
Pick O'Neill
Most likely: O'Neill by decision, about 43 in 100
Win chance: O'Neill 63%, Moura 37%.
Confidence 6 of 10 · Medium
Claude
61 of 101 winner picks correct · 60% hit rate
Pick O'Neill
Most likely: O'Neill by decision, about 35 in 100
Win chance: O'Neill 65%, Moura 35%.
Confidence 7 of 10 · High
Gemini
68 of 108 winner picks correct · 63% hit rate
Pick O'Neill
Most likely: O'Neill by decision, about 44 in 100
Win chance: O'Neill 63%, Moura 37%.
Confidence 6 of 10 · Medium
3 of 3 models pick O'Neill.
Questions
The result 7 questions
Who wins, and how likely?
ChatGPT
O'Neill: 63% (about 63 in 100 fights). Moura: 37%.
Claude
O'Neill: 65% (about 65 in 100 fights). Moura: 35%.
Gemini
O'Neill: 63% (about 63 in 100 fights). Moura: 37%.
What is the single most likely outcome?
ChatGPT
O'Neill by decision: 43% (about 43 in 100).
Claude
O'Neill by decision: 35% (about 35 in 100).
Gemini
O'Neill by decision: 44% (about 44 in 100).
What are the three most likely outcomes, and why?
ChatGPT
1. O'Neill by decision (43%); 2. Moura by decision (25%); 3. O'Neill by KO/TKO (15%)
Claude
1. O'Neill by decision (35%); 2. Moura by decision (22%); 3. O'Neill by KO/TKO (20%)
Gemini
1. O'Neill by decision (44%); 2. Moura by decision (20%); 3. O'Neill by KO/TKO (14%)
How confident is the model?
ChatGPT
6 of 10, based on O'Neill's 63% win chance.
Claude
7 of 10, based on O'Neill's 65% win chance.
Gemini
6 of 10, based on O'Neill's 63% win chance.
Does it end early or go to the judges?
ChatGPT
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 32%. Decision: 68%.
Claude
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 43%. Decision: 57%.
Gemini
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 36%. Decision: 64%.
How does O'Neill win?
ChatGPT
O'Neill wins 63%: KO/TKO 15%, submission 5%, decision 43%.
Claude
O'Neill wins 65%: KO/TKO 20%, submission 10%, decision 35%.
Gemini
O'Neill wins 63%: KO/TKO 14%, submission 5%, decision 44%.
How does Moura win?
ChatGPT
Moura wins 37%: KO/TKO 4%, submission 8%, decision 25%.
Claude
Moura wins 35%: KO/TKO 7%, submission 6%, decision 22%.
Gemini
Moura wins 37%: KO/TKO 5%, submission 12%, decision 20%.
What if 1 question
What is the upset path?
ChatGPT
Moura's most likely upset: Moura by decision (25%).
Claude
Moura's most likely upset: Moura by decision (22%).
Gemini
Moura's most likely upset: Moura by decision (20%).
Compared with others 1 question
Do the models agree?
All models
The models agree: all 3 pick O'Neill.
After the fight 1 question
What happened vs what the model said?
ChatGPT
Result: O'Neill by submission in round 1. O'Neill by submission was the model's number 5 outcome. Its most likely outcome was O'Neill by decision (43%).
Claude
Result: O'Neill by submission in round 1. O'Neill by submission was the model's number 4 outcome. Its most likely outcome was O'Neill by decision (35%).
Gemini
Result: O'Neill by submission in round 1. O'Neill by submission was the model's joint number 5 outcome. Its most likely outcome was O'Neill by decision (44%).
More questions (19)
The result 7 questions
KO/TKO vs submission vs decision overall
ChatGPT
KO/TKO 19%, submission 13%, decision 68%.
Claude
KO/TKO 27%, submission 16%, decision 57%.
Gemini
KO/TKO 19%, submission 17%, decision 64%.
Who is more likely to finish the other?
ChatGPT
O'Neill: 20%, against 12% for Moura.
Claude
O'Neill: 30%, against 13% for Moura.
Gemini
O'Neill: 19%, against 17% for Moura.
Can O'Neill get the finish? Can Moura?
ChatGPT
O'Neill: 20% (KO/TKO 15%, submission 5%). Moura: 12% (KO/TKO 4%, submission 8%).
Claude
O'Neill: 30% (KO/TKO 20%, submission 10%). Moura: 13% (KO/TKO 7%, submission 6%).
Gemini
O'Neill: 19% (KO/TKO 14%, submission 5%). Moura: 17% (KO/TKO 5%, submission 12%).
Who is more likely to be knocked out, and who to be submitted?
ChatGPT
O'Neill is knocked out in 4% and submitted in 8%. Moura is knocked out in 15% and submitted in 5%.
Claude
O'Neill is knocked out in 7% and submitted in 6%. Moura is knocked out in 20% and submitted in 10%.
Gemini
O'Neill is knocked out in 5% and submitted in 12%. Moura is knocked out in 14% and submitted in 5%.
How lopsided is this fight?
ChatGPT
Lopsided: 63% vs 37%.
Claude
Lopsided: 65% vs 35%.
Gemini
Lopsided: 63% vs 37%.
Each fighter's single most likely way to win
ChatGPT
O'Neill by decision: 43%. Moura by decision: 25%.
Claude
O'Neill by decision: 35%. Moura by decision: 22%.
Gemini
O'Neill by decision: 44%. Moura by decision: 20%.
How big an upset would it be if the underdog wins?
ChatGPT
Moura wins 37% (about 1 in 3 fights): a big upset.
Claude
Moura wins 35% (about 1 in 3 fights): a big upset.
Gemini
Moura wins 37% (about 1 in 3 fights): a big upset.
Timing 1 question
Chance it goes to a decision
ChatGPT
68%.
Claude
57%.
Gemini
64%.
What if 1 question
If it goes to the judges, who wins?
ChatGPT
If it goes to the judges: O'Neill 63%, Moura 37%.
Claude
If it goes to the judges: O'Neill 61%, Moura 39%.
Gemini
If it goes to the judges: O'Neill 69%, Moura 31%.
Compared with others 5 questions
Where does this model differ from the others?
ChatGPT
Biggest difference: Moura by decision, 25% here against 21% on average for the others.
Claude
Biggest difference: O'Neill by decision, 35% here against 44% on average for the others.
Gemini
Biggest difference: O'Neill by decision, 44% here against 39% on average for the others.
How does it compare with analyst picks?
ChatGPT
Of 51 analyst picks, 47 back O'Neill and 4 back Moura. This model picks O'Neill (63%).
Claude
Of 51 analyst picks, 47 back O'Neill and 4 back Moura. This model picks O'Neill (65%).
Gemini
Of 51 analyst picks, 47 back O'Neill and 4 back Moura. This model picks O'Neill (63%).
Which model is most confident on O'Neill, and which on Moura?
All models
On O'Neill: Claude (65%). On Moura: ChatGPT and Gemini, tied (37%).
Where do the models disagree most?
All models
O'Neill by decision: from 35% (Claude) to 44% (Gemini).
Which analyst agrees most with this model?
All models
Anatoly Pimentel (O'Neill by decision), AJ Devito (O'Neill by decision), Artem MMA (O'Neill by decision), HopperMMA (O'Neill by decision), Kunath (O'Neill by decision), Uselyis (O'Neill by decision), TonyHasDiedMMA (O'Neill by decision), Punters Edge (O'Neill by decision), TheWeasle (O'Neill by decision), The MMA Guru (O'Neill by decision), TheWagerZone ™ (O'Neill by decision), MMA Husky Hustler (O'Neill by decision), Bedtime MMA (O'Neill by decision), MMA JOEY (O'Neill by decision), Tom Feely (O'Neill by decision), KingofCrackdown5095 (O'Neill by decision), JakeBreaksMMA (O'Neill by decision), JetChaosMMA (O'Neill by decision), MMA Tugg (O'Neill by decision) and FightIQ (O'Neill by decision): the same winner and method as this model, tied; this model favours O'Neill, most likely by decision.
How sure 4 questions
When was this forecast made, and by which model version?
ChatGPT
On 18 Sep 2026, by gpt-6-astra.
Claude
On 18 Sep 2026, by claude-sonnet-5.
Gemini
On 18 Sep 2026, by a model version the provider did not report.
What can't the model know?
FightCard
Models research public information before the fight, such as records, styles, recent results and coverage. They cannot see inside training camps, injuries nobody has reported, or what happens on the night. A small chance is not no chance: outcomes the model rates at a few percent still happen, and big favourites lose sometimes.
How is "confidence" worked out?
FightCard
Confidence restates the favourite's win chance on a 10-step scale: the win chance in tens, rounded, so 55% is 6 of 10 and 95% or more is 10 of 10. 1 to 3 reads Low, 4 to 6 Medium and 7 to 10 High. A favourite usually has at least half the chance, so most picks show 5 or more. When the model has the fighters exactly even, there is no pick and no confidence level. It is not a separate judgement by the model.
What counts as a KO, a decision or a draw?
FightCard
KO/TKO includes referee, doctor and corner stoppages, and disqualifications. A decision includes a fight stopped early and scored on the judges' cards. A stoppage between rounds counts as a finish in the round that just ended. A draw and a no contest share one outcome.
After the fight 1 question
Was the actual result in this model's top 3?
All models
No.
ChatGPT
Pick
O'Neill
Confidence 6 of 10 · Medium
Most likely: O'Neill by decision, about 43 in 100
Win chance: O'Neill 63%, Moura 37%.
Most likely outcomes
- O'Neill by decision43%
- Moura by decision25%
- O'Neill by KO/TKO15%
- KO/TKO: O'Neill 15%, Moura 4%.
- Submission: O'Neill 5%, Moura 8%.
- Decision: O'Neill 43%, Moura 25%.
Questions
The result 7 questions
Who wins, and how likely?
ChatGPT
O'Neill: 63% (about 63 in 100 fights). Moura: 37%.
Other models' answers
Claude
O'Neill: 65% (about 65 in 100 fights). Moura: 35%.
What is the single most likely outcome?
ChatGPT
O'Neill by decision: 43% (about 43 in 100).
Other models' answers
Claude
O'Neill by decision: 35% (about 35 in 100).
Gemini
O'Neill by decision: 44% (about 44 in 100).
What are the three most likely outcomes, and why?
ChatGPT
1. O'Neill by decision (43%); 2. Moura by decision (25%); 3. O'Neill by KO/TKO (15%)
Other models' answers
Claude
1. O'Neill by decision (35%); 2. Moura by decision (22%); 3. O'Neill by KO/TKO (20%)
Gemini
1. O'Neill by decision (44%); 2. Moura by decision (20%); 3. O'Neill by KO/TKO (14%)
How confident is the model?
ChatGPT
6 of 10, based on O'Neill's 63% win chance.
Other models' answers
Claude
7 of 10, based on O'Neill's 65% win chance.
Does it end early or go to the judges?
ChatGPT
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 32%. Decision: 68%.
Other models' answers
Claude
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 43%. Decision: 57%.
Gemini
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 36%. Decision: 64%.
How does O'Neill win?
ChatGPT
O'Neill wins 63%: KO/TKO 15%, submission 5%, decision 43%.
Other models' answers
Claude
O'Neill wins 65%: KO/TKO 20%, submission 10%, decision 35%.
Gemini
O'Neill wins 63%: KO/TKO 14%, submission 5%, decision 44%.
How does Moura win?
ChatGPT
Moura wins 37%: KO/TKO 4%, submission 8%, decision 25%.
Other models' answers
Claude
Moura wins 35%: KO/TKO 7%, submission 6%, decision 22%.
Gemini
Moura wins 37%: KO/TKO 5%, submission 12%, decision 20%.
What if 1 question
What is the upset path?
ChatGPT
Moura's most likely upset: Moura by decision (25%).
Other models' answers
Claude
Moura's most likely upset: Moura by decision (22%).
Gemini
Moura's most likely upset: Moura by decision (20%).
Compared with others 1 question
Do the models agree?
ChatGPT
The models agree: all 3 pick O'Neill.
After the fight 1 question
What happened vs what the model said?
ChatGPT
Result: O'Neill by submission in round 1. O'Neill by submission was the model's number 5 outcome. Its most likely outcome was O'Neill by decision (43%).
Other models' answers
Claude
Result: O'Neill by submission in round 1. O'Neill by submission was the model's number 4 outcome. Its most likely outcome was O'Neill by decision (35%).
Gemini
Result: O'Neill by submission in round 1. O'Neill by submission was the model's joint number 5 outcome. Its most likely outcome was O'Neill by decision (44%).
More questions (19)
The result 7 questions
KO/TKO vs submission vs decision overall
ChatGPT
KO/TKO 19%, submission 13%, decision 68%.
Other models' answers
Claude
KO/TKO 27%, submission 16%, decision 57%.
Gemini
KO/TKO 19%, submission 17%, decision 64%.
Who is more likely to finish the other?
ChatGPT
O'Neill: 20%, against 12% for Moura.
Other models' answers
Claude
O'Neill: 30%, against 13% for Moura.
Gemini
O'Neill: 19%, against 17% for Moura.
Can O'Neill get the finish? Can Moura?
ChatGPT
O'Neill: 20% (KO/TKO 15%, submission 5%). Moura: 12% (KO/TKO 4%, submission 8%).
Other models' answers
Claude
O'Neill: 30% (KO/TKO 20%, submission 10%). Moura: 13% (KO/TKO 7%, submission 6%).
Gemini
O'Neill: 19% (KO/TKO 14%, submission 5%). Moura: 17% (KO/TKO 5%, submission 12%).
Who is more likely to be knocked out, and who to be submitted?
ChatGPT
O'Neill is knocked out in 4% and submitted in 8%. Moura is knocked out in 15% and submitted in 5%.
Other models' answers
Claude
O'Neill is knocked out in 7% and submitted in 6%. Moura is knocked out in 20% and submitted in 10%.
Gemini
O'Neill is knocked out in 5% and submitted in 12%. Moura is knocked out in 14% and submitted in 5%.
How lopsided is this fight?
ChatGPT
Lopsided: 63% vs 37%.
Other models' answers
Claude
Lopsided: 65% vs 35%.
Each fighter's single most likely way to win
ChatGPT
O'Neill by decision: 43%. Moura by decision: 25%.
Other models' answers
Claude
O'Neill by decision: 35%. Moura by decision: 22%.
Gemini
O'Neill by decision: 44%. Moura by decision: 20%.
How big an upset would it be if the underdog wins?
ChatGPT
Moura wins 37% (about 1 in 3 fights): a big upset.
Other models' answers
Claude
Moura wins 35% (about 1 in 3 fights): a big upset.
Timing 1 question
Chance it goes to a decision
ChatGPT
68%.
Other models' answers
Claude
57%.
Gemini
64%.
What if 1 question
If it goes to the judges, who wins?
ChatGPT
If it goes to the judges: O'Neill 63%, Moura 37%.
Other models' answers
Claude
If it goes to the judges: O'Neill 61%, Moura 39%.
Gemini
If it goes to the judges: O'Neill 69%, Moura 31%.
Compared with others 5 questions
Where does this model differ from the others?
ChatGPT
Biggest difference: Moura by decision, 25% here against 21% on average for the others.
Other models' answers
Claude
Biggest difference: O'Neill by decision, 35% here against 44% on average for the others.
Gemini
Biggest difference: O'Neill by decision, 44% here against 39% on average for the others.
How does it compare with analyst picks?
ChatGPT
Of 51 analyst picks, 47 back O'Neill and 4 back Moura. This model picks O'Neill (63%).
Other models' answers
Claude
Of 51 analyst picks, 47 back O'Neill and 4 back Moura. This model picks O'Neill (65%).
Which model is most confident on O'Neill, and which on Moura?
ChatGPT
On O'Neill: Claude (65%). On Moura: ChatGPT and Gemini, tied (37%).
Where do the models disagree most?
ChatGPT
O'Neill by decision: from 35% (Claude) to 44% (Gemini).
Which analyst agrees most with this model?
ChatGPT
Anatoly Pimentel (O'Neill by decision), AJ Devito (O'Neill by decision), Artem MMA (O'Neill by decision), HopperMMA (O'Neill by decision), Kunath (O'Neill by decision), Uselyis (O'Neill by decision), TonyHasDiedMMA (O'Neill by decision), Punters Edge (O'Neill by decision), TheWeasle (O'Neill by decision), The MMA Guru (O'Neill by decision), TheWagerZone ™ (O'Neill by decision), MMA Husky Hustler (O'Neill by decision), Bedtime MMA (O'Neill by decision), MMA JOEY (O'Neill by decision), Tom Feely (O'Neill by decision), KingofCrackdown5095 (O'Neill by decision), JakeBreaksMMA (O'Neill by decision), JetChaosMMA (O'Neill by decision), MMA Tugg (O'Neill by decision) and FightIQ (O'Neill by decision): the same winner and method as this model, tied; this model favours O'Neill, most likely by decision.
How sure 4 questions
When was this forecast made, and by which model version?
ChatGPT
On 18 Sep 2026, by gpt-6-astra.
Other models' answers
Claude
On 18 Sep 2026, by claude-sonnet-5.
Gemini
On 18 Sep 2026, by a model version the provider did not report.
What can't the model know?
FightCard
Models research public information before the fight, such as records, styles, recent results and coverage. They cannot see inside training camps, injuries nobody has reported, or what happens on the night. A small chance is not no chance: outcomes the model rates at a few percent still happen, and big favourites lose sometimes.
How is "confidence" worked out?
FightCard
Confidence restates the favourite's win chance on a 10-step scale: the win chance in tens, rounded, so 55% is 6 of 10 and 95% or more is 10 of 10. 1 to 3 reads Low, 4 to 6 Medium and 7 to 10 High. A favourite usually has at least half the chance, so most picks show 5 or more. When the model has the fighters exactly even, there is no pick and no confidence level. It is not a separate judgement by the model.
What counts as a KO, a decision or a draw?
FightCard
KO/TKO includes referee, doctor and corner stoppages, and disqualifications. A decision includes a fight stopped early and scored on the judges' cards. A stoppage between rounds counts as a finish in the round that just ended. A draw and a no contest share one outcome.
After the fight 1 question
Was the actual result in this model's top 3?
ChatGPT
No.
gpt-6-astra · 18 Sep63 of 108 winner picks correct · 58% hit rate
Claude
Pick
O'Neill
Confidence 7 of 10 · High
Most likely: O'Neill by decision, about 35 in 100
Win chance: O'Neill 65%, Moura 35%.
Most likely outcomes
- O'Neill by decision35%
- Moura by decision22%
- O'Neill by KO/TKO20%
- KO/TKO: O'Neill 20%, Moura 7%.
- Submission: O'Neill 10%, Moura 6%.
- Decision: O'Neill 35%, Moura 22%.
Questions
The result 7 questions
Who wins, and how likely?
Claude
O'Neill: 65% (about 65 in 100 fights). Moura: 35%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
O'Neill: 63% (about 63 in 100 fights). Moura: 37%.
Gemini
O'Neill: 63% (about 63 in 100 fights). Moura: 37%.
What is the single most likely outcome?
Claude
O'Neill by decision: 35% (about 35 in 100).
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
O'Neill by decision: 43% (about 43 in 100).
Gemini
O'Neill by decision: 44% (about 44 in 100).
What are the three most likely outcomes, and why?
Claude
1. O'Neill by decision (35%); 2. Moura by decision (22%); 3. O'Neill by KO/TKO (20%)
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
1. O'Neill by decision (43%); 2. Moura by decision (25%); 3. O'Neill by KO/TKO (15%)
Gemini
1. O'Neill by decision (44%); 2. Moura by decision (20%); 3. O'Neill by KO/TKO (14%)
How confident is the model?
Claude
7 of 10, based on O'Neill's 65% win chance.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
6 of 10, based on O'Neill's 63% win chance.
Gemini
6 of 10, based on O'Neill's 63% win chance.
Does it end early or go to the judges?
Claude
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 43%. Decision: 57%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 32%. Decision: 68%.
Gemini
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 36%. Decision: 64%.
How does O'Neill win?
Claude
O'Neill wins 65%: KO/TKO 20%, submission 10%, decision 35%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
O'Neill wins 63%: KO/TKO 15%, submission 5%, decision 43%.
Gemini
O'Neill wins 63%: KO/TKO 14%, submission 5%, decision 44%.
How does Moura win?
Claude
Moura wins 35%: KO/TKO 7%, submission 6%, decision 22%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Moura wins 37%: KO/TKO 4%, submission 8%, decision 25%.
Gemini
Moura wins 37%: KO/TKO 5%, submission 12%, decision 20%.
What if 1 question
What is the upset path?
Claude
Moura's most likely upset: Moura by decision (22%).
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Moura's most likely upset: Moura by decision (25%).
Gemini
Moura's most likely upset: Moura by decision (20%).
Compared with others 1 question
Do the models agree?
Claude
The models agree: all 3 pick O'Neill.
After the fight 1 question
What happened vs what the model said?
Claude
Result: O'Neill by submission in round 1. O'Neill by submission was the model's number 4 outcome. Its most likely outcome was O'Neill by decision (35%).
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Result: O'Neill by submission in round 1. O'Neill by submission was the model's number 5 outcome. Its most likely outcome was O'Neill by decision (43%).
Gemini
Result: O'Neill by submission in round 1. O'Neill by submission was the model's joint number 5 outcome. Its most likely outcome was O'Neill by decision (44%).
More questions (19)
The result 7 questions
KO/TKO vs submission vs decision overall
Claude
KO/TKO 27%, submission 16%, decision 57%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
KO/TKO 19%, submission 13%, decision 68%.
Gemini
KO/TKO 19%, submission 17%, decision 64%.
Who is more likely to finish the other?
Claude
O'Neill: 30%, against 13% for Moura.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
O'Neill: 20%, against 12% for Moura.
Gemini
O'Neill: 19%, against 17% for Moura.
Can O'Neill get the finish? Can Moura?
Claude
O'Neill: 30% (KO/TKO 20%, submission 10%). Moura: 13% (KO/TKO 7%, submission 6%).
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
O'Neill: 20% (KO/TKO 15%, submission 5%). Moura: 12% (KO/TKO 4%, submission 8%).
Gemini
O'Neill: 19% (KO/TKO 14%, submission 5%). Moura: 17% (KO/TKO 5%, submission 12%).
Who is more likely to be knocked out, and who to be submitted?
Claude
O'Neill is knocked out in 7% and submitted in 6%. Moura is knocked out in 20% and submitted in 10%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
O'Neill is knocked out in 4% and submitted in 8%. Moura is knocked out in 15% and submitted in 5%.
Gemini
O'Neill is knocked out in 5% and submitted in 12%. Moura is knocked out in 14% and submitted in 5%.
How lopsided is this fight?
Claude
Lopsided: 65% vs 35%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Lopsided: 63% vs 37%.
Gemini
Lopsided: 63% vs 37%.
Each fighter's single most likely way to win
Claude
O'Neill by decision: 35%. Moura by decision: 22%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
O'Neill by decision: 43%. Moura by decision: 25%.
Gemini
O'Neill by decision: 44%. Moura by decision: 20%.
How big an upset would it be if the underdog wins?
Claude
Moura wins 35% (about 1 in 3 fights): a big upset.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Moura wins 37% (about 1 in 3 fights): a big upset.
Gemini
Moura wins 37% (about 1 in 3 fights): a big upset.
Timing 1 question
Chance it goes to a decision
Claude
57%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
68%.
Gemini
64%.
What if 1 question
If it goes to the judges, who wins?
Claude
If it goes to the judges: O'Neill 61%, Moura 39%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
If it goes to the judges: O'Neill 63%, Moura 37%.
Gemini
If it goes to the judges: O'Neill 69%, Moura 31%.
Compared with others 5 questions
Where does this model differ from the others?
Claude
Biggest difference: O'Neill by decision, 35% here against 44% on average for the others.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Biggest difference: Moura by decision, 25% here against 21% on average for the others.
Gemini
Biggest difference: O'Neill by decision, 44% here against 39% on average for the others.
How does it compare with analyst picks?
Claude
Of 51 analyst picks, 47 back O'Neill and 4 back Moura. This model picks O'Neill (65%).
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Of 51 analyst picks, 47 back O'Neill and 4 back Moura. This model picks O'Neill (63%).
Gemini
Of 51 analyst picks, 47 back O'Neill and 4 back Moura. This model picks O'Neill (63%).
Which model is most confident on O'Neill, and which on Moura?
Claude
On O'Neill: Claude (65%). On Moura: ChatGPT and Gemini, tied (37%).
Where do the models disagree most?
Claude
O'Neill by decision: from 35% (Claude) to 44% (Gemini).
Which analyst agrees most with this model?
Claude
Anatoly Pimentel (O'Neill by decision), AJ Devito (O'Neill by decision), Artem MMA (O'Neill by decision), HopperMMA (O'Neill by decision), Kunath (O'Neill by decision), Uselyis (O'Neill by decision), TonyHasDiedMMA (O'Neill by decision), Punters Edge (O'Neill by decision), TheWeasle (O'Neill by decision), The MMA Guru (O'Neill by decision), TheWagerZone ™ (O'Neill by decision), MMA Husky Hustler (O'Neill by decision), Bedtime MMA (O'Neill by decision), MMA JOEY (O'Neill by decision), Tom Feely (O'Neill by decision), KingofCrackdown5095 (O'Neill by decision), JakeBreaksMMA (O'Neill by decision), JetChaosMMA (O'Neill by decision), MMA Tugg (O'Neill by decision) and FightIQ (O'Neill by decision): the same winner and method as this model, tied; this model favours O'Neill, most likely by decision.
How sure 4 questions
When was this forecast made, and by which model version?
Claude
On 18 Sep 2026, by claude-sonnet-5.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
On 18 Sep 2026, by gpt-6-astra.
Gemini
On 18 Sep 2026, by a model version the provider did not report.
What can't the model know?
FightCard
Models research public information before the fight, such as records, styles, recent results and coverage. They cannot see inside training camps, injuries nobody has reported, or what happens on the night. A small chance is not no chance: outcomes the model rates at a few percent still happen, and big favourites lose sometimes.
How is "confidence" worked out?
FightCard
Confidence restates the favourite's win chance on a 10-step scale: the win chance in tens, rounded, so 55% is 6 of 10 and 95% or more is 10 of 10. 1 to 3 reads Low, 4 to 6 Medium and 7 to 10 High. A favourite usually has at least half the chance, so most picks show 5 or more. When the model has the fighters exactly even, there is no pick and no confidence level. It is not a separate judgement by the model.
What counts as a KO, a decision or a draw?
FightCard
KO/TKO includes referee, doctor and corner stoppages, and disqualifications. A decision includes a fight stopped early and scored on the judges' cards. A stoppage between rounds counts as a finish in the round that just ended. A draw and a no contest share one outcome.
After the fight 1 question
Was the actual result in this model's top 3?
Claude
No.
claude-sonnet-5 · 18 Sep61 of 101 winner picks correct · 60% hit rate
Gemini
Pick
O'Neill
Confidence 6 of 10 · Medium
Most likely: O'Neill by decision, about 44 in 100
Win chance: O'Neill 63%, Moura 37%.
Most likely outcomes
- O'Neill by decision44%
- Moura by decision20%
- O'Neill by KO/TKO14%
- KO/TKO: O'Neill 14%, Moura 5%.
- Submission: O'Neill 5%, Moura 12%.
- Decision: O'Neill 44%, Moura 20%.
Questions
The result 7 questions
Who wins, and how likely?
Gemini
O'Neill: 63% (about 63 in 100 fights). Moura: 37%.
Other models' answers
Claude
O'Neill: 65% (about 65 in 100 fights). Moura: 35%.
What is the single most likely outcome?
Gemini
O'Neill by decision: 44% (about 44 in 100).
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
O'Neill by decision: 43% (about 43 in 100).
Claude
O'Neill by decision: 35% (about 35 in 100).
What are the three most likely outcomes, and why?
Gemini
1. O'Neill by decision (44%); 2. Moura by decision (20%); 3. O'Neill by KO/TKO (14%)
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
1. O'Neill by decision (43%); 2. Moura by decision (25%); 3. O'Neill by KO/TKO (15%)
Claude
1. O'Neill by decision (35%); 2. Moura by decision (22%); 3. O'Neill by KO/TKO (20%)
How confident is the model?
Gemini
6 of 10, based on O'Neill's 63% win chance.
Other models' answers
Claude
7 of 10, based on O'Neill's 65% win chance.
Does it end early or go to the judges?
Gemini
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 36%. Decision: 64%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 32%. Decision: 68%.
Claude
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 43%. Decision: 57%.
How does O'Neill win?
Gemini
O'Neill wins 63%: KO/TKO 14%, submission 5%, decision 44%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
O'Neill wins 63%: KO/TKO 15%, submission 5%, decision 43%.
Claude
O'Neill wins 65%: KO/TKO 20%, submission 10%, decision 35%.
How does Moura win?
Gemini
Moura wins 37%: KO/TKO 5%, submission 12%, decision 20%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Moura wins 37%: KO/TKO 4%, submission 8%, decision 25%.
Claude
Moura wins 35%: KO/TKO 7%, submission 6%, decision 22%.
What if 1 question
What is the upset path?
Gemini
Moura's most likely upset: Moura by decision (20%).
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Moura's most likely upset: Moura by decision (25%).
Claude
Moura's most likely upset: Moura by decision (22%).
Compared with others 1 question
Do the models agree?
Gemini
The models agree: all 3 pick O'Neill.
After the fight 1 question
What happened vs what the model said?
Gemini
Result: O'Neill by submission in round 1. O'Neill by submission was the model's joint number 5 outcome. Its most likely outcome was O'Neill by decision (44%).
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Result: O'Neill by submission in round 1. O'Neill by submission was the model's number 5 outcome. Its most likely outcome was O'Neill by decision (43%).
Claude
Result: O'Neill by submission in round 1. O'Neill by submission was the model's number 4 outcome. Its most likely outcome was O'Neill by decision (35%).
More questions (19)
The result 7 questions
KO/TKO vs submission vs decision overall
Gemini
KO/TKO 19%, submission 17%, decision 64%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
KO/TKO 19%, submission 13%, decision 68%.
Claude
KO/TKO 27%, submission 16%, decision 57%.
Who is more likely to finish the other?
Gemini
O'Neill: 19%, against 17% for Moura.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
O'Neill: 20%, against 12% for Moura.
Claude
O'Neill: 30%, against 13% for Moura.
Can O'Neill get the finish? Can Moura?
Gemini
O'Neill: 19% (KO/TKO 14%, submission 5%). Moura: 17% (KO/TKO 5%, submission 12%).
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
O'Neill: 20% (KO/TKO 15%, submission 5%). Moura: 12% (KO/TKO 4%, submission 8%).
Claude
O'Neill: 30% (KO/TKO 20%, submission 10%). Moura: 13% (KO/TKO 7%, submission 6%).
Who is more likely to be knocked out, and who to be submitted?
Gemini
O'Neill is knocked out in 5% and submitted in 12%. Moura is knocked out in 14% and submitted in 5%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
O'Neill is knocked out in 4% and submitted in 8%. Moura is knocked out in 15% and submitted in 5%.
Claude
O'Neill is knocked out in 7% and submitted in 6%. Moura is knocked out in 20% and submitted in 10%.
How lopsided is this fight?
Gemini
Lopsided: 63% vs 37%.
Other models' answers
Claude
Lopsided: 65% vs 35%.
Each fighter's single most likely way to win
Gemini
O'Neill by decision: 44%. Moura by decision: 20%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
O'Neill by decision: 43%. Moura by decision: 25%.
Claude
O'Neill by decision: 35%. Moura by decision: 22%.
How big an upset would it be if the underdog wins?
Gemini
Moura wins 37% (about 1 in 3 fights): a big upset.
Other models' answers
Claude
Moura wins 35% (about 1 in 3 fights): a big upset.
Timing 1 question
Chance it goes to a decision
Gemini
64%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
68%.
Claude
57%.
What if 1 question
If it goes to the judges, who wins?
Gemini
If it goes to the judges: O'Neill 69%, Moura 31%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
If it goes to the judges: O'Neill 63%, Moura 37%.
Claude
If it goes to the judges: O'Neill 61%, Moura 39%.
Compared with others 5 questions
Where does this model differ from the others?
Gemini
Biggest difference: O'Neill by decision, 44% here against 39% on average for the others.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Biggest difference: Moura by decision, 25% here against 21% on average for the others.
Claude
Biggest difference: O'Neill by decision, 35% here against 44% on average for the others.
How does it compare with analyst picks?
Gemini
Of 51 analyst picks, 47 back O'Neill and 4 back Moura. This model picks O'Neill (63%).
Other models' answers
Claude
Of 51 analyst picks, 47 back O'Neill and 4 back Moura. This model picks O'Neill (65%).
Which model is most confident on O'Neill, and which on Moura?
Gemini
On O'Neill: Claude (65%). On Moura: ChatGPT and Gemini, tied (37%).
Where do the models disagree most?
Gemini
O'Neill by decision: from 35% (Claude) to 44% (Gemini).
Which analyst agrees most with this model?
Gemini
Anatoly Pimentel (O'Neill by decision), AJ Devito (O'Neill by decision), Artem MMA (O'Neill by decision), HopperMMA (O'Neill by decision), Kunath (O'Neill by decision), Uselyis (O'Neill by decision), TonyHasDiedMMA (O'Neill by decision), Punters Edge (O'Neill by decision), TheWeasle (O'Neill by decision), The MMA Guru (O'Neill by decision), TheWagerZone ™ (O'Neill by decision), MMA Husky Hustler (O'Neill by decision), Bedtime MMA (O'Neill by decision), MMA JOEY (O'Neill by decision), Tom Feely (O'Neill by decision), KingofCrackdown5095 (O'Neill by decision), JakeBreaksMMA (O'Neill by decision), JetChaosMMA (O'Neill by decision), MMA Tugg (O'Neill by decision) and FightIQ (O'Neill by decision): the same winner and method as this model, tied; this model favours O'Neill, most likely by decision.
How sure 4 questions
When was this forecast made, and by which model version?
Gemini
On 18 Sep 2026, by a model version the provider did not report.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
On 18 Sep 2026, by gpt-6-astra.
Claude
On 18 Sep 2026, by claude-sonnet-5.
What can't the model know?
FightCard
Models research public information before the fight, such as records, styles, recent results and coverage. They cannot see inside training camps, injuries nobody has reported, or what happens on the night. A small chance is not no chance: outcomes the model rates at a few percent still happen, and big favourites lose sometimes.
How is "confidence" worked out?
FightCard
Confidence restates the favourite's win chance on a 10-step scale: the win chance in tens, rounded, so 55% is 6 of 10 and 95% or more is 10 of 10. 1 to 3 reads Low, 4 to 6 Medium and 7 to 10 High. A favourite usually has at least half the chance, so most picks show 5 or more. When the model has the fighters exactly even, there is no pick and no confidence level. It is not a separate judgement by the model.
What counts as a KO, a decision or a draw?
FightCard
KO/TKO includes referee, doctor and corner stoppages, and disqualifications. A decision includes a fight stopped early and scored on the judges' cards. A stoppage between rounds counts as a finish in the round that just ended. A draw and a no contest share one outcome.
After the fight 1 question
Was the actual result in this model's top 3?
Gemini
No.
Version not reported · 18 Sep68 of 108 winner picks correct · 63% hit rate
AI-generated · Not betting advice · 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-MY-RESET
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