MMA analyst publishing UFC full-card preview and prediction videos.
James Lynch on YouTube ↗Scorecard
Called 26 of 36 resolved picks — every call traced to its source, no bare percentage. How Track Record works.
- Winner 26 10
- Method 11 5
- Round 1 6
- Underdog 3 1
Hit Miss
The running record
Every figure below is cumulative — computed over all resolved calls up to and including each card, never one card on its own. A cumulative rate settles as the denominator grows, so its flattening is arithmetic, not a verdict: read where a line sits, and read the vs. the field strip for whether this analyst gained or lost ground on the rest of the roster. Winner is scored on every resolved call; method, round and underdog each have a different and much smaller base, printed beside each one.
Hit Miss Field median Gap to the field
James Lynch scored 81.2 after 4 cards, against a ranked field spanning 59.7 to 92.5. Also plotted: TheWeasle (#1), DFS By The Numbers (#3). Against the median of the other 17 ranked analysts they finished 6.5 above, from 2.6 above at UFC 330.
81.2 now, across 4 cards. The first 2 cards are drawn dashed and hollow: below 20 resolved calls there is no published score yet. The shaded band is where the whole ranked field sits — 59.7 to 92.5 across 18 analysts, this one included.
26 of 36 — 72% now, from 91% at their first scored card.
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Method
69% 11 of 16 correct winners that named a method
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Round
14% 1 of 7 correct winners that named a round
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Underdog
3 of 4 priced underdog calls — too few to chart a trend.
The opening points are drawn dashed and hollow: below 5 scored calls this rate is not yet a reliable figure.
Card by card
Newest card first — the charts above run oldest to newest. One mark per scored call, hits above the line and misses below. Every call is listed in Call History, below.
- Hooker vs. Parnasse 81.2 9 hit · 3 miss
- UFC 330 78.1 1 hit · 4 miss
- Medic vs. Rodriguez 92.1 6 hit · 2 miss
- Du Plessis vs. Usman 93.1 10 hit · 1 miss
Call History
Every logged call, grouped by event, scored on Winner, Method, and Round — nothing about a result ever sits behind a click.
underdog pick favourite pick — shown only for picks with a known pre-fight price. The percentage is the chance the market gave the fighter this analyst picked. Open a row for the price’s source and the credit it earned.
Hooker vs. Parnasse
Event scorecard
- Winner 9 3
- Method 6 3
- Round 3
- Underdog 1
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Favourite call, market price 80.8%. Parnasse · KO/TKO · R3 | Parnasse · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Hit | Miss | |
Picks Salahdine Parnasse to stop Dan Hooker in round three, citing Hooker's inactivity, accumulated punishment, and Parnasse's youth and speed. “Yeah, Parnasse third round knockout.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 80.8% before the fight, from the pre-event sportsbook consensus frozen before the fight. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Benouaich · Dec | Benouaich · Sub R2 | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
Leans on Benouaich as the favourite and on how rarely this matchup type ends inside the distance. “but I'll take the French fighter by decision.” | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 76.6%. Campbell · Dec | Campbell · Sub R3 | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
Calls Campbell the safe side on current momentum, keeping a Peek knockout only as a separate value aside. “I think you go Campbell decision.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 76.6% before the fight, from the pre-event sportsbook consensus frozen before the fight. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Lima · Dec | Lima · Dec | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Notes Lima has never been knocked out and reads Charriere's recent results as the shakier side. “I'll go Lima decision. I think that's a safe pick here.” | |||||
| Cornolle · Dec | Cornolle · Dec | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Gives Cornolle the edge on Octagon experience alone in a fight he otherwise rates as one to leave alone. “Norah decision probably the way to go here.” | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 32.6%. Soriano · Dec | Donchenko · Dec | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Names this his underdog pick of the card, favouring Soriano's power and his win over Uros Medic. “So, I'm going to go Puna decision.” Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 32.6% before the fight, from the pre-event sportsbook consensus frozen before the fight. Underdog credit earned: 0.00 — credit is earned only on a correct call. | |||||
| Duclos · KO/TKO · R2 | Duclos · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Hit | Miss | |
Points to Duclos' knockout tally against a Dias already finished by strikes twice. “I'll take uh Ducolos uh by second round knockout to get it done over Diaz.” | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 76.3%. Keita · Dec | Keita · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
Favours Keita as the younger and faster fighter over three rounds. “uh, Kietta, I think decision is probably a good bet here.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 76.3% before the fight, from the pre-event sportsbook consensus frozen before the fight. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 65.1%. Page · Dec | Page · Dec | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Expects Page's ring craft to carry the scorecards even while doubting his longer-term UFC future. “Michael Venom Page decision. I think he's too smart.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 65.1% before the fight, from the pre-event sportsbook consensus frozen before the fight. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Pinto · KO/TKO · R3 | Pinto · KO/TKO R2 | Hit | Hit | Miss | |
Cites Pinto's power and youth while saying openly he is not confident and rates Spann an undervalued underdog. “I'm going to go third round knockout for Pinto.” | |||||
| Sy · Dec | Bukauskas · KO/TKO R2 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Rates Sy's level of opposition and power higher, and expects a close fight scored at home in Paris. “give me C by decision to have a close fight here with Modesus.” | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 58.1%. Ziam · Dec | Sola · KO/TKO R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Reads it as a close, high-action fight but gives Ziam's size and power the edge on the cards. “Close fight. I give ZM the edge.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 58.1% before the fight, from the pre-event sportsbook consensus frozen before the fight. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
UFC 330
Makhachev vs. Machado Garry
Event scorecard
- Winner 1 4
- Method 1
- RoundNamed rounds — none on a correct call yet
- UnderdogNo underdog calls with a known pre-fight price
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Favourite call, market price 87.5%. Orolbai · Dec | Wells · Sub R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Calls Orolbai by decision, citing his younger age and advantages in striking and grappling. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 87.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 58.5%. Brahimaj · Sub · R2 | Magny · KO/TKO R2 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Picks Brahimaj by second-round submission, while allowing Magny by decision would not surprise him. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 58.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 50.5%. Luque · Dec | Gore · Dec R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Calls Luque his first underdog pick, by decision, based on opposition level and doubts about Gore's knockout route. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 50.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 85.5%. Ribovics · KO/TKO | Ribovics · KO/TKO R2 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Forecasts Ribovics is most likely to win by knockout and recommends the early-round knockout props; no single round is recorded. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 85.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 85.5%. Abdul-Malik · KO/TKO · R2 | Stoltzfus · Sub R2 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Calls Abdul-Malik by second-round TKO, expecting Stoltzfus to be matched to make prospects look good. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 85.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
Medic vs. Rodriguez
Event scorecard
- Winner 6 2
- Method 4 2
- Round 1 3
- UnderdogNo underdog calls with a known pre-fight price
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Favourite call, market price 77.5%. Medić · KO/TKO · R1 | Medić · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Hit | Hit | |
Points to Rodriguez's own account of poor training and playing catch-up after his layoff as the deciding factor, and expects Medic to finish early at home. “I'll go Medic first round knockout to take out Rodriguez.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 77.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 75.5%. Stirling · KO/TKO · R3 | Stirling · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Hit | Miss | |
Argues Stirling's recent wins are over weak opposition and this should be closer to a pick'em, but bases the pick on Blachowicz being 43 and getting dropped by Guskov. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 75.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 76.5%. Rakić · Dec | Rakić · Dec R3 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Thinks Rakic is on paper the better and smarter fighter and will not go for broke as he did against Prochazka, but flags real risk in a first heavyweight outing. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 76.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 58.5%. Valentin · KO/TKO · R2 | Valentin · Sub R1 | Hit | Miss | Miss | |
Unimpressed by both men, noting Todorovic's four knockout losses and thin recent opposition, and picks Valentin without conviction. “I'll take Valentine by knockout in the second round, but not super confident here.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 58.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 73.5%. Cepo · KO/TKO · R1 | Urbina · KO/TKO R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Notes Urbina keeps getting knocked out — including by Medic — and has lost three of his last four, and backs Cepo's ten knockout wins to end it early. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 73.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 76.5%. Oliveira · KO/TKO · R2 | Oliveira · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Hit | Miss | |
Calls Elliott overrated and says his recent form and two knockout losses make him finishable, backing Oliveira's power and six-inch reach edge. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 76.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 69.5%. Klein · Dec | Musayev · KO/TKO R2 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Gives Klein the edge on age and overall level but stresses that Klein rarely finishes high-level opposition, so he takes him on the cards. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 69.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 65.5%. Grad · Dec | Grad · Sub R2 | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
Expects a close back-and-forth fight and does not believe Grad has shown the finishing power in the UFC to stop Buzukja, so he takes Grad on the scorecards. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 65.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
Du Plessis vs. Usman
Event scorecard
- Winner 10 1
- MethodCalls the winner, not the method
- RoundCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog 3
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Favourite call, market price 83.5%. Barbosa · to win | Barbosa · Sub R1 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Picks Barbosa, expecting her to win a decision despite no betting interest at the price. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 83.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 50.5%. Hines · to win | Harris · KO/TKO R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Makes Hines his selection, while noting the matchup is close enough that he would bet Harris as the underdog. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 50.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 88.5%. Coria · to win | Coria · Dec | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Picks Coria and expects a second-round stoppage, while questioning the extreme betting price. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 88.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 41.5%. Franco · to win | Franco · KO/TKO R2 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Takes the underdog Franco on experience and expects a second-round knockout. Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 41.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Underdog credit earned: 0.17 — (50% − 41.5%) ÷ 50%. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 44.5%. Delgado · to win | Delgado · Dec | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Picks Delgado as value at the betting line and does not see him losing the matchup. Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 44.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Underdog credit earned: 0.11 — (50% − 44.5%) ÷ 50%. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 64.9%. McMillen · to win | McMillen · KO/TKO R3 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Takes McMillen and expects him to score a late knockout after exploiting Montes's prior stoppage loss. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 64.9% before the fight, from the pre-event sportsbook consensus frozen before the fight. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 81.5%. Kline · to win | Kline · Dec | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Takes Kline to win a decision, citing the age, height and reach advantages. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 81.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 75.2%. Hooper · to win | Hooper · Sub R1 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Takes Hooper to use wrestling and a safer approach to win a decision over Ramirez. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 75.2% before the fight, from the pre-event sportsbook consensus frozen before the fight. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 74.8%. Duncan · to win | Duncan · Dec | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Takes Duncan to win a decision, pointing to the age gap and Duncan's physical advantages. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 74.8% before the fight, from the pre-event sportsbook consensus frozen before the fight. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 64.9%. Du Plessis · to win | Du Plessis · Dec | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Takes Du Plessis by decision, while acknowledging Usman's style could create problems. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 64.9% before the fight, from the pre-event sportsbook consensus frozen before the fight. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 39.5%. Lebosnoyani · to win | Lebosnoyani · Dec | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Takes the underdog Lebosnoyani to win a decision, based on his younger age and stronger opposition history. Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 39.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Underdog credit earned: 0.21 — (50% − 39.5%) ÷ 50%. | |||||
Videos
Every source clip behind James Lynch's logged calls.