Another former champion in the headlights 👀 @PaytonTalbott calls out Sean O’Malley following his finish at #UFC332!
View video on X ↗Payton Talbott defeats Deiveson Figueiredo by KO/TKO
KO/TKO · strikes
Round 1 · 2:09
Figueiredo vs Talbott — Bantamweight · UFC 332: Silva vs. Wang
Predictions summary
Analyst Picks
(2) 5%
95% (40)
AI Predictions
22%
78%
Market OddsComing soonNo forecast publishedUnavailable right nowBook prices available in Market
Checking latest live market odds.
What happened
The result, the defining moments, and what the verdict means.
Talbott put Figueiredo on the canvas with a right hand early in the round.
An elbow along the fence then started his push for the finish, and Figueiredo was unable to recover once it landed.
Talbott stayed on him with hard shots until Figueiredo covered up and referee Jason Herzog stepped in.
- primaryUFC 332 main card results
Pre-fight analysis — how we saw it going in
Case for Figueiredo
Figueiredo arrives on a two-fight skid — a decision loss to Umar Nurmagomedov and a second-round guillotine submission to Song Yadong. His 25-7-1 record and even split across knockout, submission and decision wins reflect a finisher who has never needed one path to win.
Case for Talbott
Talbott is unbeaten in his last two starts, including a unanimous decision over Henry Cejudo, and moves at a noticeably faster pace than the bantamweight norm. This is his first veteran test since that Cejudo win, against an opponent with far more championship-rounds experience.
What We Were Watching For
- Whether Figueiredo's recent vulnerability to grappling exchanges — the Song guillotine — is a pattern Talbott's speed can exploit early.
- Talbott's ability to close distance against a veteran counter-striker without eating a clean shot.
- Figueiredo's durability and finishing instincts across three rounds after two decision-heavy losses.
- Whether Talbott's pace advantage or Figueiredo's experience decides close exchanges late in the fight.
Records & career stats
- 25-7-1
- Record
- 11-1-0
- —
- Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
- —
- Brazil
- Nationality
- United States
- 38
- Age
- 28
- —
- StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
- —
- 72%
- Finish rateFinish %Finish rateThe share of a fighter’s wins that ended inside the distance — by KO/TKO or submission — rather than going to the judges’ scorecards. Higher means more finishes.
- Source pending
- 9
- Wins by KO/TKOKO wins
- —
- 12:15
- Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
- 09:51
- Team Figueiredo
- Team
- Reno Academy of Combat
Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Record is as of fight night; career stats, recent form and win totals are the latest on file and may include this fight. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.
Videos
Outcome footage, post-fight coverage, and the pre-fight lead-up.
After the fight
Before the fight (1)
Comments
Who Called It?
How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.
(2) 5%
LFigueiredo
95% (40)
TalbottW
Vinny
Current pick evidence
Picked: Deiveson Figueiredo · Dec
Fight result: Payton Talbott · KO/TKO
Expects Figueiredo to test Talbott’s resolve in the later rounds and win a decision.
Track record: winner called in 6 of 12 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 50.0% (6 hit, 6 miss, across 12 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 16.7% (1 hit, 5 miss, across 6 method-scored calls on 12 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 4 miss, across 4 round-scored calls on 12 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy: No underdog calls with a known pre-fight price.
- Winner Accuracy 50.0% 6 6
- Method Accuracy 16.7% 1 5
- Round Accuracy 0.0% 4
- Underdog AccuracyNo underdog calls with a known pre-fight price
Guy Bruhn
Current pick evidence
Picked: Deiveson Figueiredo
Fight result: Payton Talbott · KO/TKO
Bruhn selects Deiveson Figueiredo in a winner-only call.
Track record: winner called in 10 of 21 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 47.6% (10 hit, 11 miss, across 21 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 37.5% (3 hit, 5 miss, across 8 underdog calls on 21 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 47.6% 10 11
- Method AccuracyCalls the winner, not the method
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 37.5% 3 5
Hank
Current pick evidence
Picked: Payton Talbott · KO/TKO · Round 1
Fight result: Payton Talbott · KO/TKO
Favors Talbott’s speed, power and counter-wrestling against an older Figueiredo.
Track record: winner called in 11 of 12 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 91.7% (11 hit, 1 miss, across 12 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 90.9% (10 hit, 1 miss, across 11 method-scored calls on 12 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 44.4% (4 hit, 5 miss, across 9 round-scored calls on 12 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy: No underdog calls with a known pre-fight price.
- Winner Accuracy 91.7% 11 1
- Method Accuracy 90.9% 10 1
- Round Accuracy 44.4% 4 5
- Underdog AccuracyNo underdog calls with a known pre-fight price
Bedtime MMA
Current pick evidence
Picked: Payton Talbott · Sub · Round 3
Fight result: Payton Talbott · KO/TKO
Bedtime expects Talbott’s volume, body work, knees and elbows to wear Figueiredo down. He allows for early takedown success from Figueiredo but expects Talbott’s physicality and grappling to produce a third-round submission.
- Also allows for a clear Talbott decision as an alternative.
“going to pick Pton Talbot. I'm going to say Payton Talba by round three submission.”
Track record: winner called in 132 of 185 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 71.4% (132 hit, 53 miss, across 185 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 61.9% (60 hit, 37 miss, across 97 method-scored calls on 185 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 40.7% (11 hit, 16 miss, across 27 round-scored calls on 185 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 48.7% (19 hit, 20 miss, across 39 underdog calls on 185 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 71.4% 132 53
- Method Accuracy 61.9% 60 37
- Round Accuracy 40.7% 11 16
- Underdog Accuracy 48.7% 19 20
TheWeasle
Current pick evidence
Picked: Payton Talbott · KO/TKO · Round 3
Fight result: Payton Talbott · KO/TKO
He sees Talbott as much larger for the division, technically strong, increasingly capable of wrestling, and able to take a shot; he warns that Figueiredo's power still must be respected. He predicts cumulative damage leading to a third-round knockout, naming Talbott's right straight and a head kick as possible finish routes.
- He names a right straight and a head kick as possible finishing shots.
“I do see him getting knocked out for the first time in his career.”
Track record: winner called in 115 of 163 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 70.6% (115 hit, 48 miss, across 163 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 61.8% (47 hit, 29 miss, across 76 method-scored calls on 163 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 36.5% (19 hit, 33 miss, across 52 round-scored calls on 163 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 52.9% (9 hit, 8 miss, across 17 underdog calls on 163 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 70.6% 115 48
- Method Accuracy 61.8% 47 29
- Round Accuracy 36.5% 19 33
- Underdog Accuracy 52.9% 9 8
FightIQ
Current pick evidence
Picked: Payton Talbott · Dec
Fight result: Payton Talbott · KO/TKO
FightIQ's public record lists Payton Talbott as its pick over Deiveson Figueiredo.
Track record: winner called in 159 of 227 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 70.0% (159 hit, 68 miss, across 227 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 39.9% (59 hit, 89 miss, across 148 method-scored calls on 227 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 55.0% (11 hit, 9 miss, across 20 underdog calls on 227 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 70.0% 159 68
- Method Accuracy 39.9% 59 89
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 55.0% 11 9
Jimbo Ortega MMA
Current pick evidence
Picked: Payton Talbott · KO/TKO · Round 1
Fight result: Payton Talbott · KO/TKO
Jimbo Ortega MMA selects Payton Talbott by ko/tko in round 1.
Track record: winner called in 38 of 56 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 67.9% (38 hit, 18 miss, across 56 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 62.1% (18 hit, 11 miss, across 29 method-scored calls on 56 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 50.0% (1 hit, 1 miss, across 2 round-scored calls on 56 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 50.0% (4 hit, 4 miss, across 8 underdog calls on 56 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 67.9% 38 18
- Method Accuracy 62.1% 18 11
- Round Accuracy 50.0% 1 1
- Underdog Accuracy 50.0% 4 4
Michael Chiesa
Current pick evidence
Picked: Payton Talbott
Fight result: Payton Talbott · KO/TKO
Chiesa favors Talbott's short punches, framing jab and combinations that change angles and stances. He thinks Figueiredo needs to mix wrestling with striking and fight at a higher pace, but does not expect him to sustain the pace required to beat Talbott.
“I am going with Payton Talbot”
Track record: winner called in 50 of 75 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 66.7% (50 hit, 25 miss, across 75 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 40.0% (2 hit, 3 miss, across 5 method-scored calls on 75 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 16.7% (2 hit, 10 miss, across 12 underdog calls on 75 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 66.7% 50 25
- Method Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 16.7% 2 10
Matt
Current pick evidence
Picked: Payton Talbott · KO/TKO · Round 2
Fight result: Payton Talbott · KO/TKO
Expects Talbott to overwhelm the declining Figueiredo and stop him late in round two.
Track record: winner called in 14 of 21 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 66.7% (14 hit, 7 miss, across 21 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 66.7% (6 hit, 3 miss, across 9 method-scored calls on 21 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 40.0% (2 hit, 3 miss, across 5 round-scored calls on 21 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy: No underdog calls with a known pre-fight price.
- Winner Accuracy 66.7% 14 7
- Method Accuracy 66.7% 6 3
- Round Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
- Underdog AccuracyNo underdog calls with a known pre-fight price
The MMA Guru
Current pick evidence
Picked: Payton Talbott · Round 2
Fight result: Payton Talbott · KO/TKO
Favors Talbott to finish Figueiredo around the second round, discussing either a TKO or submission without choosing one method. Expects his reach, body work and sustained pursuit to create openings, while questioning whether he can stay composed when Figueiredo slows the fight.
Track record: winner called in 213 of 322 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 66.1% (213 hit, 109 miss, across 322 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 53.4% (62 hit, 54 miss, across 116 method-scored calls on 322 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 35.9% (14 hit, 25 miss, across 39 round-scored calls on 322 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 47.4% (18 hit, 20 miss, across 38 underdog calls on 322 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 66.1% 213 109
- Method Accuracy 53.4% 62 54
- Round Accuracy 35.9% 14 25
- Underdog Accuracy 47.4% 18 20
JakeGerberMMA
Current pick evidence
Picked: Payton Talbott
Fight result: Payton Talbott · KO/TKO
Jake favors Payton Talbott over Deiveson Figueiredo but leaves open a decision or a knockout.
“Payton Talbott's going to beat the brakes off of Deiveson Figueiredo.”
Track record: winner called in 101 of 154 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 65.6% (101 hit, 53 miss, across 154 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 60.0% (39 hit, 26 miss, across 65 method-scored calls on 154 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 35.7% (5 hit, 9 miss, across 14 round-scored calls on 154 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (4 hit, 8 miss, across 12 underdog calls on 154 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 65.6% 101 53
- Method Accuracy 60.0% 39 26
- Round Accuracy 35.7% 5 9
- Underdog Accuracy 33.3% 4 8
Brent Brookhouse
Current pick evidence
Picked: Payton Talbott · Dec
Fight result: Payton Talbott · KO/TKO
Brent Brookhouse picks Payton Talbott to win by unanimous decision.
Track record: winner called in 28 of 43 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 65.1% (28 hit, 15 miss, across 43 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 36.4% (8 hit, 14 miss, across 22 method-scored calls on 43 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 22.2% (2 hit, 7 miss, across 9 round-scored calls on 43 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 37.5% (3 hit, 5 miss, across 8 underdog calls on 43 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 65.1% 28 15
- Method Accuracy 36.4% 8 14
- Round Accuracy 22.2% 2 7
- Underdog Accuracy 37.5% 3 5
Fite Feed
Current pick evidence
Picked: Payton Talbott · KO/TKO · Round 2
Fight result: Payton Talbott · KO/TKO
Expects Talbott to finish a declining Figueiredo and sees this as a matchup favoring the younger contender.
Track record: winner called in 24 of 37 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 64.9% (24 hit, 13 miss, across 37 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 60.9% (14 hit, 9 miss, across 23 method-scored calls on 37 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 21.4% (3 hit, 11 miss, across 14 round-scored calls on 37 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 40.0% (2 hit, 3 miss, across 5 underdog calls on 37 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 64.9% 24 13
- Method Accuracy 60.9% 14 9
- Round Accuracy 21.4% 3 11
- Underdog Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
Mate Bersenadze
Current pick evidence
Picked: Payton Talbott · Dec
Fight result: Payton Talbott · KO/TKO
Mate Bersenadze picks Payton Talbott by decision, per his UFC 332 preview.
Track record: winner called in 33 of 52 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 63.5% (33 hit, 19 miss, across 52 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 51.5% (17 hit, 16 miss, across 33 method-scored calls on 52 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 100.0% (1 hit, 0 miss, across 1 round-scored calls on 52 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (2 hit, 4 miss, across 6 underdog calls on 52 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 63.5% 33 19
- Method Accuracy 51.5% 17 16
- Round Accuracy 100.0% 1
- Underdog Accuracy 33.3% 2 4
Livid Larry MMA
Current pick evidence
Picked: Payton Talbott · KO/TKO
Fight result: Payton Talbott · KO/TKO
Livid Larry MMA selects Payton Talbott by ko/tko.
Track record: winner called in 34 of 54 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 63.0% (34 hit, 20 miss, across 54 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 79.2% (19 hit, 5 miss, across 24 method-scored calls on 54 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 75.0% (3 hit, 1 miss, across 4 round-scored calls on 54 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 38.5% (5 hit, 8 miss, across 13 underdog calls on 54 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 63.0% 34 20
- Method Accuracy 79.2% 19 5
- Round Accuracy 75.0% 3 1
- Underdog Accuracy 38.5% 5 8
MMA JOEY
Current pick evidence
Picked: Payton Talbott
Fight result: Payton Talbott · KO/TKO
MMA JOEY selects Payton Talbott.
Track record: winner called in 78 of 125 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 62.4% (78 hit, 47 miss, across 125 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 46.6% (27 hit, 31 miss, across 58 method-scored calls on 125 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 28.1% (9 hit, 23 miss, across 32 round-scored calls on 125 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (7 hit, 14 miss, across 21 underdog calls on 125 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 62.4% 78 47
- Method Accuracy 46.6% 27 31
- Round Accuracy 28.1% 9 23
- Underdog Accuracy 33.3% 7 14
Michael Bisping
Current pick evidence
Picked: Payton Talbott
Fight result: Payton Talbott · KO/TKO
Bisping expects Talbott to stop Figueiredo, emphasizing Talbott's skills and improvement after the Barcelos loss. He considers Figueiredo's age and accumulated high-level fights a factor in the matchup.
- Predicts a stoppage without choosing knockout or submission.
“I think he gets a stoppage against Deiveson Figueiredo.”
Track record: winner called in 24 of 39 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 61.5% (24 hit, 15 miss, across 39 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 33.3% (2 hit, 4 miss, across 6 method-scored calls on 39 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Underdog Accuracy 28.6% (2 hit, 5 miss, across 7 underdog calls on 39 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 61.5% 24 15
- Method Accuracy 33.3% 2 4
- Round AccuracyNamed rounds — none on a correct call yet
- Underdog Accuracy 28.6% 2 5
James Lynch
Current pick evidence
Picked: Payton Talbott · Dec
Fight result: Payton Talbott · KO/TKO
Lynch picks Talbott by decision and says he wants to see more from him.
Track record: winner called in 36 of 59 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 61.0% (36 hit, 23 miss, across 59 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 45.0% (9 hit, 11 miss, across 20 method-scored calls on 59 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 5 miss, across 5 round-scored calls on 59 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 60.0% (3 hit, 2 miss, across 5 underdog calls on 59 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 61.0% 36 23
- Method Accuracy 45.0% 9 11
- Round Accuracy 0.0% 5
- Underdog Accuracy 60.0% 3 2
MMA Mathletes
Current pick evidence
Picked: Payton Talbott
Fight result: Payton Talbott · KO/TKO
MMA Mathletes selects Payton Talbott.
Track record: winner called in 32 of 54 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 59.3% (32 hit, 22 miss, across 54 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 63.6% (7 hit, 4 miss, across 11 method-scored calls on 54 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 100.0% (1 hit, 0 miss, across 1 round-scored calls on 54 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 28.6% (2 hit, 5 miss, across 7 underdog calls on 54 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 59.3% 32 22
- Method Accuracy 63.6% 7 4
- Round Accuracy 100.0% 1
- Underdog Accuracy 28.6% 2 5
KingofCrackdown5095
Current pick evidence
Picked: Payton Talbott · KO/TKO · Round 3
Fight result: Payton Talbott · KO/TKO
KingofCrackdown5095 picks Payton Talbott by third-round TKO.
Track record: winner called in 37 of 63 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 58.7% (37 hit, 26 miss, across 63 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 65.6% (21 hit, 11 miss, across 32 method-scored calls on 63 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 42.1% (8 hit, 11 miss, across 19 round-scored calls on 63 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 42.9% (3 hit, 4 miss, across 7 underdog calls on 63 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 58.7% 37 26
- Method Accuracy 65.6% 21 11
- Round Accuracy 42.1% 8 11
- Underdog Accuracy 42.9% 3 4
Kunath
Current pick evidence
Picked: Payton Talbott · KO/TKO
Fight result: Payton Talbott · KO/TKO
Kunath selects Payton Talbott by ko/tko.
Track record: winner called in 38 of 65 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 58.5% (38 hit, 27 miss, across 65 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 56.7% (17 hit, 13 miss, across 30 method-scored calls on 65 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 40.0% (2 hit, 3 miss, across 5 round-scored calls on 65 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 25.0% (3 hit, 9 miss, across 12 underdog calls on 65 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 58.5% 38 27
- Method Accuracy 56.7% 17 13
- Round Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
- Underdog Accuracy 25.0% 3 9
The Octagon Oracle
Current pick evidence
Picked: Payton Talbott · KO/TKO
Fight result: Payton Talbott · KO/TKO
Favors Talbott’s power and variety of finishing attacks against the older Figueiredo.
Track record: winner called in 7 of 12 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 58.3% (7 hit, 5 miss, across 12 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 85.7% (6 hit, 1 miss, across 7 method-scored calls on 12 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy: No underdog calls with a known pre-fight price.
- Winner Accuracy 58.3% 7 5
- Method Accuracy 85.7% 6 1
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog AccuracyNo underdog calls with a known pre-fight price
Angelo Bodetti
Current pick evidence
Picked: Payton Talbott
Fight result: Payton Talbott · KO/TKO
Bodetti favors Talbott’s size, speed, power and movement, with improving wrestling supporting the pick. He acknowledges Talbott’s earlier takedown-defense concerns but does not expect Figueiredo to control him on the ground.
Track record: winner called in 29 of 50 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 58.0% (29 hit, 21 miss, across 50 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 60.0% (3 hit, 2 miss, across 5 method-scored calls on 50 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 100.0% (1 hit, 0 miss, across 1 round-scored calls on 50 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 40.0% (2 hit, 3 miss, across 5 underdog calls on 50 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 58.0% 29 21
- Method Accuracy 60.0% 3 2
- Round Accuracy 100.0% 1
- Underdog Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
Artem MMA
Current pick evidence
Picked: Payton Talbott · KO/TKO
Fight result: Payton Talbott · KO/TKO
Expects Talbott’s improved takedown defense, physical size and high-volume knees and kicks to overwhelm a Figueiredo he sees as declining on the feet.
Track record: winner called in 55 of 95 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 57.9% (55 hit, 40 miss, across 95 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 63.8% (30 hit, 17 miss, across 47 method-scored calls on 95 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 60.0% (6 hit, 4 miss, across 10 round-scored calls on 95 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 23.5% (4 hit, 13 miss, across 17 underdog calls on 95 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 57.9% 55 40
- Method Accuracy 63.8% 30 17
- Round Accuracy 60.0% 6 4
- Underdog Accuracy 23.5% 4 13
BeewolfMMA
Current pick evidence
Picked: Payton Talbott · KO/TKO · Round 1
Fight result: Payton Talbott · KO/TKO
Sees Talbott as a difficult striking and grappling matchup for Figueiredo, whose recent performances he considers below the level of the division’s best. Expects a one-sided fight ending with a first-round knockout.
Track record: winner called in 13 of 23 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 56.5% (13 hit, 10 miss, across 23 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 100.0% (7 hit, 0 miss, across 7 method-scored calls on 23 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 83.3% (5 hit, 1 miss, across 6 round-scored calls on 23 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy: No underdog calls with a known pre-fight price.
- Winner Accuracy 56.5% 13 10
- Method Accuracy 100.0% 7
- Round Accuracy 83.3% 5 1
- Underdog AccuracyNo underdog calls with a known pre-fight price
Jon Litterine
Current pick evidence
Picked: Payton Talbott
Fight result: Payton Talbott · KO/TKO
Says Figueiredo cannot sustain the pace, which narrows his upset path against Talbott.
Track record: winner called in 70 of 124 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 56.5% (70 hit, 54 miss, across 124 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 28.0% (7 hit, 18 miss, across 25 underdog calls on 124 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 56.5% 70 54
- Method AccuracyNamed methods — none on a correct call yet
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 28.0% 7 18
Fight Productions
Current pick evidence
Picked: Payton Talbott · KO/TKO · Round 2
Fight result: Payton Talbott · KO/TKO
Fight Productions selects Payton Talbott by ko/tko in round 2.
Track record: winner called in 37 of 66 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 56.1% (37 hit, 29 miss, across 66 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 75.7% (28 hit, 9 miss, across 37 method-scored calls on 66 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 41.7% (10 hit, 14 miss, across 24 round-scored calls on 66 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 25.0% (2 hit, 6 miss, across 8 underdog calls on 66 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 56.1% 37 29
- Method Accuracy 75.7% 28 9
- Round Accuracy 41.7% 10 14
- Underdog Accuracy 25.0% 2 6
Brian Campbell
Current pick evidence
Picked: Payton Talbott · KO/TKO · Round 3
Fight result: Payton Talbott · KO/TKO
Brian Campbell picks Payton Talbott to win by third-round TKO.
Track record: winner called in 24 of 43 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 55.8% (24 hit, 19 miss, across 43 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 65.0% (13 hit, 7 miss, across 20 method-scored calls on 43 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 7.1% (1 hit, 13 miss, across 14 round-scored calls on 43 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 25.0% (3 hit, 9 miss, across 12 underdog calls on 43 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 55.8% 24 19
- Method Accuracy 65.0% 13 7
- Round Accuracy 7.1% 1 13
- Underdog Accuracy 25.0% 3 9
Clenbat
Current pick evidence
Picked: Payton Talbott
Fight result: Payton Talbott · KO/TKO
Clenbat selects Payton Talbott in a winner-only call.
Track record: winner called in 27 of 49 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 55.1% (27 hit, 22 miss, across 49 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 37.5% (3 hit, 5 miss, across 8 underdog calls on 49 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 55.1% 27 22
- Method AccuracyNamed methods — none on a correct call yet
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 37.5% 3 5
The Finz Chats
Current pick evidence
Picked: Payton Talbott · Sub
Fight result: Payton Talbott · KO/TKO
The Finz Chats selects Payton Talbott by submission.
Track record: winner called in 12 of 22 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 54.5% (12 hit, 10 miss, across 22 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 42.9% (3 hit, 4 miss, across 7 method-scored calls on 22 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 100.0% (1 hit, 0 miss, across 1 round-scored calls on 22 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 66.7% (2 hit, 1 miss, across 3 underdog calls on 22 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 54.5% 12 10
- Method Accuracy 42.9% 3 4
- Round Accuracy 100.0% 1
- Underdog Accuracy 66.7% 2 1
Shakiel Mahjouri
Current pick evidence
Picked: Payton Talbott · Dec
Fight result: Payton Talbott · KO/TKO
Shakiel Mahjouri picks Payton Talbott to win by unanimous decision.
Track record: winner called in 25 of 46 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 54.3% (25 hit, 21 miss, across 46 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 50.0% (10 hit, 10 miss, across 20 method-scored calls on 46 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 9 miss, across 9 round-scored calls on 46 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 23.1% (3 hit, 10 miss, across 13 underdog calls on 46 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 54.3% 25 21
- Method Accuracy 50.0% 10 10
- Round Accuracy 0.0% 9
- Underdog Accuracy 23.1% 3 10
Chris Schweppe
Current pick evidence
Picked: Payton Talbott · KO/TKO · Round 2
Fight result: Payton Talbott · KO/TKO
Schweppe picks Payton Talbott to win by second-round knockout.
Track record: winner called in 53 of 99 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 53.5% (53 hit, 46 miss, across 99 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 47.2% (25 hit, 28 miss, across 53 method-scored calls on 99 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 33.3% (10 hit, 20 miss, across 30 round-scored calls on 99 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (10 hit, 20 miss, across 30 underdog calls on 99 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 53.5% 53 46
- Method Accuracy 47.2% 25 28
- Round Accuracy 33.3% 10 20
- Underdog Accuracy 33.3% 10 20
D.Rose
Current pick evidence
Picked: Payton Talbott · Sub
Fight result: Payton Talbott · KO/TKO
Favors Talbott’s size and improved grappling after the Lima and Cejudo fights, taking a shot on a submission without naming a round.
Track record: winner called in 11 of 21 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 52.4% (11 hit, 10 miss, across 21 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 80.0% (4 hit, 1 miss, across 5 method-scored calls on 21 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 66.7% (2 hit, 1 miss, across 3 round-scored calls on 21 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 100.0% (1 hit, 0 miss, across 1 underdog calls on 21 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 52.4% 11 10
- Method Accuracy 80.0% 4 1
- Round Accuracy 66.7% 2 1
- Underdog Accuracy 100.0% 1
The MMA Yuda
Current pick evidence
Picked: Payton Talbott
Fight result: Payton Talbott · KO/TKO
The MMA Yuda selects Payton Talbott.
Track record: winner called in 30 of 58 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 51.7% (30 hit, 28 miss, across 58 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 1 miss, across 1 method-scored calls on 58 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Underdog Accuracy 40.0% (4 hit, 6 miss, across 10 underdog calls on 58 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 51.7% 30 28
- Method Accuracy 0.0% 1
- Round AccuracyNamed rounds — none on a correct call yet
- Underdog Accuracy 40.0% 4 6
Greedo Plays MMA
Current pick evidence
Picked: Payton Talbott
Fight result: Payton Talbott · KO/TKO
Greedo Plays MMA selects Payton Talbott in a winner-only call.
Track record: winner called in 37 of 72 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 51.4% (37 hit, 35 miss, across 72 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 63.3% (19 hit, 11 miss, across 30 method-scored calls on 72 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 57.1% (8 hit, 6 miss, across 14 round-scored calls on 72 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 23.1% (3 hit, 10 miss, across 13 underdog calls on 72 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 51.4% 37 35
- Method Accuracy 63.3% 19 11
- Round Accuracy 57.1% 8 6
- Underdog Accuracy 23.1% 3 10
Walk The Line MMA
Current pick evidence
Picked: Payton Talbott · KO/TKO · Round 2
Fight result: Payton Talbott · KO/TKO
Walk The Line MMA selects Payton Talbott by ko/tko in round 2.
Track record: winner called in 27 of 54 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 50.0% (27 hit, 27 miss, across 54 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 57.9% (11 hit, 8 miss, across 19 method-scored calls on 54 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 40.0% (2 hit, 3 miss, across 5 round-scored calls on 54 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 12.5% (1 hit, 7 miss, across 8 underdog calls on 54 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 50.0% 27 27
- Method Accuracy 57.9% 11 8
- Round Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
- Underdog Accuracy 12.5% 1 7
Brandon Wise
Current pick evidence
Picked: Payton Talbott · KO/TKO · Round 1
Fight result: Payton Talbott · KO/TKO
Brandon Wise picks Payton Talbott to win by first-round KO.
Track record: winner called in 21 of 43 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 48.8% (21 hit, 22 miss, across 43 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 40.0% (6 hit, 9 miss, across 15 method-scored calls on 43 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 12.5% (1 hit, 7 miss, across 8 round-scored calls on 43 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 8.3% (1 hit, 11 miss, across 12 underdog calls on 43 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 48.8% 21 22
- Method Accuracy 40.0% 6 9
- Round Accuracy 12.5% 1 7
- Underdog Accuracy 8.3% 1 11
mmadbm
Current pick evidence
Picked: Payton Talbott · KO/TKO
Fight result: Payton Talbott · KO/TKO
Picks Talbott by knockout because he sees a much bigger, more explosive and durable striker facing an aging Figueiredo. He doubts Figueiredo’s wrestling and physicality at bantamweight and expects Talbott to expose signs of declining durability.
Track record: winner called in 20 of 41 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 48.8% (20 hit, 21 miss, across 41 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 85.7% (12 hit, 2 miss, across 14 method-scored calls on 41 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 100.0% (2 hit, 0 miss, across 2 round-scored calls on 41 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 14.3% (1 hit, 6 miss, across 7 underdog calls on 41 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 48.8% 20 21
- Method Accuracy 85.7% 12 2
- Round Accuracy 100.0% 2
- Underdog Accuracy 14.3% 1 6
Gerardo Rivas
Current pick evidence
Picked: Payton Talbott · KO/TKO · Round 2
Fight result: Payton Talbott · KO/TKO
Expects Talbott’s physical advantages to force a worn-down Figueiredo toward grappling, where he sees a finish coming.
Track record: winner called in 7 of 15 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 46.7% (7 hit, 8 miss, across 15 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 33.3% (1 hit, 2 miss, across 3 method-scored calls on 15 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 2 miss, across 2 round-scored calls on 15 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (1 hit, 2 miss, across 3 underdog calls on 15 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 46.7% 7 8
- Method Accuracy 33.3% 1 2
- Round Accuracy 0.0% 2
- Underdog Accuracy 33.3% 1 2
Timothy Wheaton
Current pick evidence
Picked: Payton Talbott · Dec
Fight result: Payton Talbott · KO/TKO
Timothy Wheaton picks Payton Talbott to win by decision, citing Talbott's momentum, age advantage, and range game.
Track record: winner called in 4 of 9 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 44.4% (4 hit, 5 miss, across 9 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 33.3% (1 hit, 2 miss, across 3 method-scored calls on 9 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Underdog Accuracy: No underdog calls with a known pre-fight price.
- Winner Accuracy 44.4% 4 5
- Method Accuracy 33.3% 1 2
- Round AccuracyNamed rounds — none on a correct call yet
- Underdog AccuracyNo underdog calls with a known pre-fight price
Chris Cross
Current pick evidence
Picked: Payton Talbott · Dec
Fight result: Payton Talbott · KO/TKO
Chris Cross leans toward Payton Talbott to squeeze out a close decision victory, possibly by split decision.
Track record: winner called in 8 of 20 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 40.0% (8 hit, 12 miss, across 20 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 25.0% (1 hit, 3 miss, across 4 method-scored calls on 20 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 1 miss, across 1 round-scored calls on 20 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 1 miss, across 1 underdog calls on 20 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 40.0% 8 12
- Method Accuracy 25.0% 1 3
- Round Accuracy 0.0% 1
- Underdog Accuracy 0.0% 1
Carlos Cano
Current pick evidence
Picked: Payton Talbott · Dec
Fight result: Payton Talbott · KO/TKO
Favors Talbott’s size, reach and improved takedown defense to control Figueiredo over three rounds.
Track record: winner called in 3 of 10 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 30.0% (3 hit, 7 miss, across 10 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 50.0% (1 hit, 1 miss, across 2 method-scored calls on 10 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Underdog Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 1 miss, across 1 underdog calls on 10 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 30.0% 3 7
- Method Accuracy 50.0% 1 1
- Round AccuracyNamed rounds — none on a correct call yet
- Underdog Accuracy 0.0% 1
Analyst picks: Hank Hit; Bedtime MMA Hit; TheWeasle Hit; FightIQ Hit; Jimbo Ortega MMA Hit; Michael Chiesa Hit; Matt Hit; The MMA Guru Hit; JakeGerberMMA Hit; Brent Brookhouse Hit; Fite Feed Hit; Mate Bersenadze Hit; Livid Larry MMA Hit; MMA JOEY Hit; Michael Bisping Hit; James Lynch Hit; MMA Mathletes Hit; KingofCrackdown5095 Hit; Kunath Hit; The Octagon Oracle Hit; Angelo Bodetti Hit; Artem MMA Hit; BeewolfMMA Hit; Jon Litterine Hit; Fight Productions Hit; Brian Campbell Hit; Clenbat Hit; The Finz Chats Hit; Shakiel Mahjouri Hit; Chris Schweppe Hit; D.Rose Hit; The MMA Yuda Hit; Greedo Plays MMA Hit; Walk The Line MMA Hit; Vinny Miss; Brandon Wise Hit; mmadbm Hit; Guy Bruhn Miss; Gerardo Rivas Hit; Timothy Wheaton Hit; Chris Cross Hit; Carlos Cano Hit.
40 of 42 nailed it.
Chart: selected analyst picks, not a win probability. Pill badge: Winner hit rate (total scored picks before this event).
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The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.
Results
Each agent’s latest pre-fight call vs result; forecast dates may differ. Market: sportsbook snapshot or historic market reconstruction.
Actual Talbott · KO/TKO · R1
Closest probability Gemini put 81% on Talbott.
24%
Figueiredo
76%
Talbott
PickTalbott · DecisionActualTalbott · KO/TKO · R1
WinnerHitMethodMissRoundNot called
22%
Figueiredo
78%
Talbott
PickTalbott · DecisionActualTalbott · KO/TKO · R1
WinnerHitMethodMissRoundNot called
19%
Figueiredo
81%
Talbott
PickTalbott · DecisionActualTalbott · KO/TKO · R1
WinnerHitMethodMissRoundNot calledAI Predictions — latest pre-fight calls
Frozen final publication identity; the calls below retain each agent’s own publication.AI Predictions
Each agent’s latest pre-fight forecast. Dates are shown per agent.
ChatGPT
63 of 108 winner picks correct · 58% hit rate
Pick Talbott
Most likely: Talbott by decision, about 40 in 100
Win chance: Figueiredo 24%, Talbott 76%.
Confidence 8 of 10 · High
Claude
61 of 101 winner picks correct · 60% hit rate
Pick Talbott
Most likely: Talbott by decision, about 38 in 100
Win chance: Figueiredo 22%, Talbott 78%.
Confidence 8 of 10 · High
Gemini
68 of 108 winner picks correct · 63% hit rate
Pick Talbott
Most likely: Talbott by decision, about 44 in 100
Win chance: Figueiredo 19%, Talbott 81%.
Confidence 8 of 10 · High
3 of 3 models pick Talbott.
Questions
The result 7 questions
Who wins, and how likely?
ChatGPT
Talbott: 76% (about 76 in 100 fights). Figueiredo: 24%.
Claude
Talbott: 78% (about 78 in 100 fights). Figueiredo: 22%.
Gemini
Talbott: 81% (about 81 in 100 fights). Figueiredo: 19%.
What is the single most likely outcome?
ChatGPT
Talbott by decision: 40% (about 40 in 100).
Claude
Talbott by decision: 38% (about 38 in 100).
Gemini
Talbott by decision: 44% (about 44 in 100).
What are the three most likely outcomes, and why?
ChatGPT
1. Talbott by decision (40%); 2. Talbott by KO/TKO (32%); 3. Figueiredo by decision (10%)
Claude
1. Talbott by decision (38%); 2. Talbott by KO/TKO (30%); 3. Figueiredo by KO/TKO (14%)
Gemini
1. Talbott by decision (44%); 2. Talbott by KO/TKO (33%); 3. Figueiredo by decision (8%)
How confident is the model?
ChatGPT
8 of 10, based on Talbott's 76% win chance.
Claude
8 of 10, based on Talbott's 78% win chance.
Gemini
8 of 10, based on Talbott's 81% win chance.
Does it end early or go to the judges?
ChatGPT
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 50%. Decision: 50%.
Claude
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 57%. Decision: 43%.
Gemini
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 48%. Decision: 52%.
How does Figueiredo win?
ChatGPT
Figueiredo wins 24%: KO/TKO 6%, submission 8%, decision 10%.
Claude
Figueiredo wins 22%: KO/TKO 14%, submission 3%, decision 5%.
Gemini
Figueiredo wins 19%: KO/TKO 5%, submission 6%, decision 8%.
How does Talbott win?
ChatGPT
Talbott wins 76%: KO/TKO 32%, submission 4%, decision 40%.
Claude
Talbott wins 78%: KO/TKO 30%, submission 10%, decision 38%.
Gemini
Talbott wins 81%: KO/TKO 33%, submission 4%, decision 44%.
What if 1 question
What is the upset path?
ChatGPT
Figueiredo's most likely upset: Figueiredo by decision (10%).
Gemini
Figueiredo's most likely upset: Figueiredo by decision (8%).
Compared with others 1 question
Do the models agree?
All models
The models agree: all 3 pick Talbott.
After the fight 1 question
What happened vs what the model said?
ChatGPT
Result: Talbott by KO/TKO in round 1. Talbott by KO/TKO was the model's number 2 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Talbott by decision (40%).
Claude
Result: Talbott by KO/TKO in round 1. Talbott by KO/TKO was the model's number 2 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Talbott by decision (38%).
Gemini
Result: Talbott by KO/TKO in round 1. Talbott by KO/TKO was the model's number 2 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Talbott by decision (44%).
More questions (17)
The result 7 questions
KO/TKO vs submission vs decision overall
ChatGPT
KO/TKO 38%, submission 12%, decision 50%.
Claude
KO/TKO 44%, submission 13%, decision 43%.
Gemini
KO/TKO 38%, submission 10%, decision 52%.
Who is more likely to finish the other?
ChatGPT
Talbott: 36%, against 14% for Figueiredo.
Claude
Talbott: 40%, against 17% for Figueiredo.
Gemini
Talbott: 37%, against 11% for Figueiredo.
Can Figueiredo get the finish? Can Talbott?
ChatGPT
Figueiredo: 14% (KO/TKO 6%, submission 8%). Talbott: 36% (KO/TKO 32%, submission 4%).
Claude
Figueiredo: 17% (KO/TKO 14%, submission 3%). Talbott: 40% (KO/TKO 30%, submission 10%).
Gemini
Figueiredo: 11% (KO/TKO 5%, submission 6%). Talbott: 37% (KO/TKO 33%, submission 4%).
Who is more likely to be knocked out, and who to be submitted?
ChatGPT
Figueiredo is knocked out in 32% and submitted in 4%. Talbott is knocked out in 6% and submitted in 8%.
Claude
Figueiredo is knocked out in 30% and submitted in 10%. Talbott is knocked out in 14% and submitted in 3%.
Gemini
Figueiredo is knocked out in 33% and submitted in 4%. Talbott is knocked out in 5% and submitted in 6%.
How lopsided is this fight?
ChatGPT
Lopsided: 76% vs 24%.
Claude
Lopsided: 78% vs 22%.
Gemini
Lopsided: 81% vs 19%.
Each fighter's single most likely way to win
ChatGPT
Figueiredo by decision: 10%. Talbott by decision: 40%.
Gemini
Figueiredo by decision: 8%. Talbott by decision: 44%.
How big an upset would it be if the underdog wins?
ChatGPT
Figueiredo wins 24% (about 1 in 4 fights): a big upset.
Claude
Figueiredo wins 22% (about 1 in 5 fights): a big upset.
Gemini
Figueiredo wins 19% (about 1 in 5 fights): a big upset.
Timing 1 question
Chance it goes to a decision
ChatGPT
50%.
Claude
43%.
Gemini
52%.
What if 1 question
If it goes to the judges, who wins?
ChatGPT
If it goes to the judges: Figueiredo 20%, Talbott 80%.
Claude
If it goes to the judges: Figueiredo 12%, Talbott 88%.
Gemini
If it goes to the judges: Figueiredo 15%, Talbott 85%.
Compared with others 3 questions
How does it compare with analyst picks?
ChatGPT
Of 42 analyst picks, 2 back Figueiredo and 40 back Talbott. This model picks Talbott (76%).
Claude
Of 42 analyst picks, 2 back Figueiredo and 40 back Talbott. This model picks Talbott (78%).
Gemini
Of 42 analyst picks, 2 back Figueiredo and 40 back Talbott. This model picks Talbott (81%).
Which model is most confident on Figueiredo, and which on Talbott?
All models
On Figueiredo: ChatGPT (24%). On Talbott: Gemini (81%).
Which analyst agrees most with this model?
All models
Timothy Wheaton (Talbott by decision), Chris Cross (Talbott by decision), James Lynch (Talbott by decision), Carlos Cano (Talbott by decision), Brent Brookhouse (Talbott by decision), Shakiel Mahjouri (Talbott by decision), Mate Bersenadze (Talbott by decision) and FightIQ (Talbott by decision): the same winner and method as this model, tied; this model favours Talbott, most likely by decision.
How sure 4 questions
When was this forecast made, and by which model version?
ChatGPT
On 27 Sep 2026, by gpt-6-astra.
Claude
On 27 Sep 2026, by claude-sonnet-5.
Gemini
On 29 Sep 2026, by a model version the provider did not report.
What can't the model know?
FightCard
Models research public information before the fight, such as records, styles, recent results and coverage. They cannot see inside training camps, injuries nobody has reported, or what happens on the night. A small chance is not no chance: outcomes the model rates at a few percent still happen, and big favourites lose sometimes.
How is "confidence" worked out?
FightCard
Confidence restates the favourite's win chance on a 10-step scale: the win chance in tens, rounded, so 55% is 6 of 10 and 95% or more is 10 of 10. 1 to 3 reads Low, 4 to 6 Medium and 7 to 10 High. A favourite usually has at least half the chance, so most picks show 5 or more. When the model has the fighters exactly even, there is no pick and no confidence level. It is not a separate judgement by the model.
What counts as a KO, a decision or a draw?
FightCard
KO/TKO includes referee, doctor and corner stoppages, and disqualifications. A decision includes a fight stopped early and scored on the judges' cards. A stoppage between rounds counts as a finish in the round that just ended. A draw and a no contest share one outcome.
After the fight 1 question
Was the actual result in this model's top 3?
All models
Yes.
ChatGPT
Pick
Talbott
Confidence 8 of 10 · High
Most likely: Talbott by decision, about 40 in 100
Win chance: Figueiredo 24%, Talbott 76%.
Most likely outcomes
- Talbott by decision40%
- Talbott by KO/TKO32%
- Figueiredo by decision10%
- KO/TKO: Figueiredo 6%, Talbott 32%.
- Submission: Figueiredo 8%, Talbott 4%.
- Decision: Figueiredo 10%, Talbott 40%.
Questions
The result 7 questions
Who wins, and how likely?
ChatGPT
Talbott: 76% (about 76 in 100 fights). Figueiredo: 24%.
Other models' answers
Claude
Talbott: 78% (about 78 in 100 fights). Figueiredo: 22%.
Gemini
Talbott: 81% (about 81 in 100 fights). Figueiredo: 19%.
What is the single most likely outcome?
ChatGPT
Talbott by decision: 40% (about 40 in 100).
Other models' answers
Claude
Talbott by decision: 38% (about 38 in 100).
Gemini
Talbott by decision: 44% (about 44 in 100).
What are the three most likely outcomes, and why?
ChatGPT
1. Talbott by decision (40%); 2. Talbott by KO/TKO (32%); 3. Figueiredo by decision (10%)
Other models' answers
Claude
1. Talbott by decision (38%); 2. Talbott by KO/TKO (30%); 3. Figueiredo by KO/TKO (14%)
Gemini
1. Talbott by decision (44%); 2. Talbott by KO/TKO (33%); 3. Figueiredo by decision (8%)
How confident is the model?
ChatGPT
8 of 10, based on Talbott's 76% win chance.
Other models' answers
Claude
8 of 10, based on Talbott's 78% win chance.
Gemini
8 of 10, based on Talbott's 81% win chance.
Does it end early or go to the judges?
ChatGPT
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 50%. Decision: 50%.
Other models' answers
Claude
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 57%. Decision: 43%.
Gemini
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 48%. Decision: 52%.
How does Figueiredo win?
ChatGPT
Figueiredo wins 24%: KO/TKO 6%, submission 8%, decision 10%.
Other models' answers
Claude
Figueiredo wins 22%: KO/TKO 14%, submission 3%, decision 5%.
Gemini
Figueiredo wins 19%: KO/TKO 5%, submission 6%, decision 8%.
How does Talbott win?
ChatGPT
Talbott wins 76%: KO/TKO 32%, submission 4%, decision 40%.
Other models' answers
Claude
Talbott wins 78%: KO/TKO 30%, submission 10%, decision 38%.
Gemini
Talbott wins 81%: KO/TKO 33%, submission 4%, decision 44%.
What if 1 question
What is the upset path?
ChatGPT
Figueiredo's most likely upset: Figueiredo by decision (10%).
Other models' answers
Gemini
Figueiredo's most likely upset: Figueiredo by decision (8%).
Compared with others 1 question
Do the models agree?
ChatGPT
The models agree: all 3 pick Talbott.
After the fight 1 question
What happened vs what the model said?
ChatGPT
Result: Talbott by KO/TKO in round 1. Talbott by KO/TKO was the model's number 2 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Talbott by decision (40%).
Other models' answers
Claude
Result: Talbott by KO/TKO in round 1. Talbott by KO/TKO was the model's number 2 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Talbott by decision (38%).
Gemini
Result: Talbott by KO/TKO in round 1. Talbott by KO/TKO was the model's number 2 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Talbott by decision (44%).
More questions (17)
The result 7 questions
KO/TKO vs submission vs decision overall
ChatGPT
KO/TKO 38%, submission 12%, decision 50%.
Other models' answers
Claude
KO/TKO 44%, submission 13%, decision 43%.
Gemini
KO/TKO 38%, submission 10%, decision 52%.
Who is more likely to finish the other?
ChatGPT
Talbott: 36%, against 14% for Figueiredo.
Other models' answers
Claude
Talbott: 40%, against 17% for Figueiredo.
Gemini
Talbott: 37%, against 11% for Figueiredo.
Can Figueiredo get the finish? Can Talbott?
ChatGPT
Figueiredo: 14% (KO/TKO 6%, submission 8%). Talbott: 36% (KO/TKO 32%, submission 4%).
Other models' answers
Claude
Figueiredo: 17% (KO/TKO 14%, submission 3%). Talbott: 40% (KO/TKO 30%, submission 10%).
Gemini
Figueiredo: 11% (KO/TKO 5%, submission 6%). Talbott: 37% (KO/TKO 33%, submission 4%).
Who is more likely to be knocked out, and who to be submitted?
ChatGPT
Figueiredo is knocked out in 32% and submitted in 4%. Talbott is knocked out in 6% and submitted in 8%.
Other models' answers
Claude
Figueiredo is knocked out in 30% and submitted in 10%. Talbott is knocked out in 14% and submitted in 3%.
Gemini
Figueiredo is knocked out in 33% and submitted in 4%. Talbott is knocked out in 5% and submitted in 6%.
How lopsided is this fight?
ChatGPT
Lopsided: 76% vs 24%.
Other models' answers
Claude
Lopsided: 78% vs 22%.
Gemini
Lopsided: 81% vs 19%.
Each fighter's single most likely way to win
ChatGPT
Figueiredo by decision: 10%. Talbott by decision: 40%.
Other models' answers
Gemini
Figueiredo by decision: 8%. Talbott by decision: 44%.
How big an upset would it be if the underdog wins?
ChatGPT
Figueiredo wins 24% (about 1 in 4 fights): a big upset.
Other models' answers
Claude
Figueiredo wins 22% (about 1 in 5 fights): a big upset.
Gemini
Figueiredo wins 19% (about 1 in 5 fights): a big upset.
Timing 1 question
Chance it goes to a decision
ChatGPT
50%.
Other models' answers
Claude
43%.
Gemini
52%.
What if 1 question
If it goes to the judges, who wins?
ChatGPT
If it goes to the judges: Figueiredo 20%, Talbott 80%.
Other models' answers
Claude
If it goes to the judges: Figueiredo 12%, Talbott 88%.
Gemini
If it goes to the judges: Figueiredo 15%, Talbott 85%.
Compared with others 3 questions
How does it compare with analyst picks?
ChatGPT
Of 42 analyst picks, 2 back Figueiredo and 40 back Talbott. This model picks Talbott (76%).
Other models' answers
Claude
Of 42 analyst picks, 2 back Figueiredo and 40 back Talbott. This model picks Talbott (78%).
Gemini
Of 42 analyst picks, 2 back Figueiredo and 40 back Talbott. This model picks Talbott (81%).
Which model is most confident on Figueiredo, and which on Talbott?
ChatGPT
On Figueiredo: ChatGPT (24%). On Talbott: Gemini (81%).
Which analyst agrees most with this model?
ChatGPT
Timothy Wheaton (Talbott by decision), Chris Cross (Talbott by decision), James Lynch (Talbott by decision), Carlos Cano (Talbott by decision), Brent Brookhouse (Talbott by decision), Shakiel Mahjouri (Talbott by decision), Mate Bersenadze (Talbott by decision) and FightIQ (Talbott by decision): the same winner and method as this model, tied; this model favours Talbott, most likely by decision.
How sure 4 questions
When was this forecast made, and by which model version?
ChatGPT
On 27 Sep 2026, by gpt-6-astra.
Other models' answers
Claude
On 27 Sep 2026, by claude-sonnet-5.
Gemini
On 29 Sep 2026, by a model version the provider did not report.
What can't the model know?
FightCard
Models research public information before the fight, such as records, styles, recent results and coverage. They cannot see inside training camps, injuries nobody has reported, or what happens on the night. A small chance is not no chance: outcomes the model rates at a few percent still happen, and big favourites lose sometimes.
How is "confidence" worked out?
FightCard
Confidence restates the favourite's win chance on a 10-step scale: the win chance in tens, rounded, so 55% is 6 of 10 and 95% or more is 10 of 10. 1 to 3 reads Low, 4 to 6 Medium and 7 to 10 High. A favourite usually has at least half the chance, so most picks show 5 or more. When the model has the fighters exactly even, there is no pick and no confidence level. It is not a separate judgement by the model.
What counts as a KO, a decision or a draw?
FightCard
KO/TKO includes referee, doctor and corner stoppages, and disqualifications. A decision includes a fight stopped early and scored on the judges' cards. A stoppage between rounds counts as a finish in the round that just ended. A draw and a no contest share one outcome.
After the fight 1 question
Was the actual result in this model's top 3?
ChatGPT
Yes.
gpt-6-astra · 27 Sep63 of 108 winner picks correct · 58% hit rate
Claude
Pick
Talbott
Confidence 8 of 10 · High
Most likely: Talbott by decision, about 38 in 100
Win chance: Figueiredo 22%, Talbott 78%.
Most likely outcomes
- Talbott by decision38%
- Talbott by KO/TKO30%
- Figueiredo by KO/TKO14%
- KO/TKO: Figueiredo 14%, Talbott 30%.
- Submission: Figueiredo 3%, Talbott 10%.
- Decision: Figueiredo 5%, Talbott 38%.
Questions
The result 7 questions
Who wins, and how likely?
Claude
Talbott: 78% (about 78 in 100 fights). Figueiredo: 22%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Talbott: 76% (about 76 in 100 fights). Figueiredo: 24%.
Gemini
Talbott: 81% (about 81 in 100 fights). Figueiredo: 19%.
What is the single most likely outcome?
Claude
Talbott by decision: 38% (about 38 in 100).
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Talbott by decision: 40% (about 40 in 100).
Gemini
Talbott by decision: 44% (about 44 in 100).
What are the three most likely outcomes, and why?
Claude
1. Talbott by decision (38%); 2. Talbott by KO/TKO (30%); 3. Figueiredo by KO/TKO (14%)
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
1. Talbott by decision (40%); 2. Talbott by KO/TKO (32%); 3. Figueiredo by decision (10%)
Gemini
1. Talbott by decision (44%); 2. Talbott by KO/TKO (33%); 3. Figueiredo by decision (8%)
How confident is the model?
Claude
8 of 10, based on Talbott's 78% win chance.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
8 of 10, based on Talbott's 76% win chance.
Gemini
8 of 10, based on Talbott's 81% win chance.
Does it end early or go to the judges?
Claude
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 57%. Decision: 43%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 50%. Decision: 50%.
Gemini
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 48%. Decision: 52%.
How does Figueiredo win?
Claude
Figueiredo wins 22%: KO/TKO 14%, submission 3%, decision 5%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Figueiredo wins 24%: KO/TKO 6%, submission 8%, decision 10%.
Gemini
Figueiredo wins 19%: KO/TKO 5%, submission 6%, decision 8%.
How does Talbott win?
Claude
Talbott wins 78%: KO/TKO 30%, submission 10%, decision 38%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Talbott wins 76%: KO/TKO 32%, submission 4%, decision 40%.
Gemini
Talbott wins 81%: KO/TKO 33%, submission 4%, decision 44%.
Compared with others 1 question
Do the models agree?
Claude
The models agree: all 3 pick Talbott.
After the fight 1 question
What happened vs what the model said?
Claude
Result: Talbott by KO/TKO in round 1. Talbott by KO/TKO was the model's number 2 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Talbott by decision (38%).
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Result: Talbott by KO/TKO in round 1. Talbott by KO/TKO was the model's number 2 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Talbott by decision (40%).
Gemini
Result: Talbott by KO/TKO in round 1. Talbott by KO/TKO was the model's number 2 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Talbott by decision (44%).
More questions (16)
The result 6 questions
KO/TKO vs submission vs decision overall
Claude
KO/TKO 44%, submission 13%, decision 43%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
KO/TKO 38%, submission 12%, decision 50%.
Gemini
KO/TKO 38%, submission 10%, decision 52%.
Who is more likely to finish the other?
Claude
Talbott: 40%, against 17% for Figueiredo.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Talbott: 36%, against 14% for Figueiredo.
Gemini
Talbott: 37%, against 11% for Figueiredo.
Can Figueiredo get the finish? Can Talbott?
Claude
Figueiredo: 17% (KO/TKO 14%, submission 3%). Talbott: 40% (KO/TKO 30%, submission 10%).
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Figueiredo: 14% (KO/TKO 6%, submission 8%). Talbott: 36% (KO/TKO 32%, submission 4%).
Gemini
Figueiredo: 11% (KO/TKO 5%, submission 6%). Talbott: 37% (KO/TKO 33%, submission 4%).
Who is more likely to be knocked out, and who to be submitted?
Claude
Figueiredo is knocked out in 30% and submitted in 10%. Talbott is knocked out in 14% and submitted in 3%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Figueiredo is knocked out in 32% and submitted in 4%. Talbott is knocked out in 6% and submitted in 8%.
Gemini
Figueiredo is knocked out in 33% and submitted in 4%. Talbott is knocked out in 5% and submitted in 6%.
How lopsided is this fight?
Claude
Lopsided: 78% vs 22%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Lopsided: 76% vs 24%.
Gemini
Lopsided: 81% vs 19%.
How big an upset would it be if the underdog wins?
Claude
Figueiredo wins 22% (about 1 in 5 fights): a big upset.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Figueiredo wins 24% (about 1 in 4 fights): a big upset.
Gemini
Figueiredo wins 19% (about 1 in 5 fights): a big upset.
Timing 1 question
Chance it goes to a decision
Claude
43%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
50%.
Gemini
52%.
What if 1 question
If it goes to the judges, who wins?
Claude
If it goes to the judges: Figueiredo 12%, Talbott 88%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
If it goes to the judges: Figueiredo 20%, Talbott 80%.
Gemini
If it goes to the judges: Figueiredo 15%, Talbott 85%.
Compared with others 3 questions
How does it compare with analyst picks?
Claude
Of 42 analyst picks, 2 back Figueiredo and 40 back Talbott. This model picks Talbott (78%).
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Of 42 analyst picks, 2 back Figueiredo and 40 back Talbott. This model picks Talbott (76%).
Gemini
Of 42 analyst picks, 2 back Figueiredo and 40 back Talbott. This model picks Talbott (81%).
Which model is most confident on Figueiredo, and which on Talbott?
Claude
On Figueiredo: ChatGPT (24%). On Talbott: Gemini (81%).
Which analyst agrees most with this model?
Claude
Timothy Wheaton (Talbott by decision), Chris Cross (Talbott by decision), James Lynch (Talbott by decision), Carlos Cano (Talbott by decision), Brent Brookhouse (Talbott by decision), Shakiel Mahjouri (Talbott by decision), Mate Bersenadze (Talbott by decision) and FightIQ (Talbott by decision): the same winner and method as this model, tied; this model favours Talbott, most likely by decision.
How sure 4 questions
When was this forecast made, and by which model version?
Claude
On 27 Sep 2026, by claude-sonnet-5.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
On 27 Sep 2026, by gpt-6-astra.
Gemini
On 29 Sep 2026, by a model version the provider did not report.
What can't the model know?
FightCard
Models research public information before the fight, such as records, styles, recent results and coverage. They cannot see inside training camps, injuries nobody has reported, or what happens on the night. A small chance is not no chance: outcomes the model rates at a few percent still happen, and big favourites lose sometimes.
How is "confidence" worked out?
FightCard
Confidence restates the favourite's win chance on a 10-step scale: the win chance in tens, rounded, so 55% is 6 of 10 and 95% or more is 10 of 10. 1 to 3 reads Low, 4 to 6 Medium and 7 to 10 High. A favourite usually has at least half the chance, so most picks show 5 or more. When the model has the fighters exactly even, there is no pick and no confidence level. It is not a separate judgement by the model.
What counts as a KO, a decision or a draw?
FightCard
KO/TKO includes referee, doctor and corner stoppages, and disqualifications. A decision includes a fight stopped early and scored on the judges' cards. A stoppage between rounds counts as a finish in the round that just ended. A draw and a no contest share one outcome.
After the fight 1 question
Was the actual result in this model's top 3?
Claude
Yes.
claude-sonnet-5 · 27 Sep61 of 101 winner picks correct · 60% hit rate
Gemini
Pick
Talbott
Confidence 8 of 10 · High
Most likely: Talbott by decision, about 44 in 100
Win chance: Figueiredo 19%, Talbott 81%.
Most likely outcomes
- Talbott by decision44%
- Talbott by KO/TKO33%
- Figueiredo by decision8%
- KO/TKO: Figueiredo 5%, Talbott 33%.
- Submission: Figueiredo 6%, Talbott 4%.
- Decision: Figueiredo 8%, Talbott 44%.
Questions
The result 7 questions
Who wins, and how likely?
Gemini
Talbott: 81% (about 81 in 100 fights). Figueiredo: 19%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Talbott: 76% (about 76 in 100 fights). Figueiredo: 24%.
Claude
Talbott: 78% (about 78 in 100 fights). Figueiredo: 22%.
What is the single most likely outcome?
Gemini
Talbott by decision: 44% (about 44 in 100).
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Talbott by decision: 40% (about 40 in 100).
Claude
Talbott by decision: 38% (about 38 in 100).
What are the three most likely outcomes, and why?
Gemini
1. Talbott by decision (44%); 2. Talbott by KO/TKO (33%); 3. Figueiredo by decision (8%)
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
1. Talbott by decision (40%); 2. Talbott by KO/TKO (32%); 3. Figueiredo by decision (10%)
Claude
1. Talbott by decision (38%); 2. Talbott by KO/TKO (30%); 3. Figueiredo by KO/TKO (14%)
How confident is the model?
Gemini
8 of 10, based on Talbott's 81% win chance.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
8 of 10, based on Talbott's 76% win chance.
Claude
8 of 10, based on Talbott's 78% win chance.
Does it end early or go to the judges?
Gemini
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 48%. Decision: 52%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 50%. Decision: 50%.
Claude
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 57%. Decision: 43%.
How does Figueiredo win?
Gemini
Figueiredo wins 19%: KO/TKO 5%, submission 6%, decision 8%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Figueiredo wins 24%: KO/TKO 6%, submission 8%, decision 10%.
Claude
Figueiredo wins 22%: KO/TKO 14%, submission 3%, decision 5%.
How does Talbott win?
Gemini
Talbott wins 81%: KO/TKO 33%, submission 4%, decision 44%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Talbott wins 76%: KO/TKO 32%, submission 4%, decision 40%.
Claude
Talbott wins 78%: KO/TKO 30%, submission 10%, decision 38%.
What if 1 question
What is the upset path?
Gemini
Figueiredo's most likely upset: Figueiredo by decision (8%).
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Figueiredo's most likely upset: Figueiredo by decision (10%).
Compared with others 1 question
Do the models agree?
Gemini
The models agree: all 3 pick Talbott.
After the fight 1 question
What happened vs what the model said?
Gemini
Result: Talbott by KO/TKO in round 1. Talbott by KO/TKO was the model's number 2 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Talbott by decision (44%).
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Result: Talbott by KO/TKO in round 1. Talbott by KO/TKO was the model's number 2 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Talbott by decision (40%).
Claude
Result: Talbott by KO/TKO in round 1. Talbott by KO/TKO was the model's number 2 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Talbott by decision (38%).
More questions (17)
The result 7 questions
KO/TKO vs submission vs decision overall
Gemini
KO/TKO 38%, submission 10%, decision 52%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
KO/TKO 38%, submission 12%, decision 50%.
Claude
KO/TKO 44%, submission 13%, decision 43%.
Who is more likely to finish the other?
Gemini
Talbott: 37%, against 11% for Figueiredo.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Talbott: 36%, against 14% for Figueiredo.
Claude
Talbott: 40%, against 17% for Figueiredo.
Can Figueiredo get the finish? Can Talbott?
Gemini
Figueiredo: 11% (KO/TKO 5%, submission 6%). Talbott: 37% (KO/TKO 33%, submission 4%).
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Figueiredo: 14% (KO/TKO 6%, submission 8%). Talbott: 36% (KO/TKO 32%, submission 4%).
Claude
Figueiredo: 17% (KO/TKO 14%, submission 3%). Talbott: 40% (KO/TKO 30%, submission 10%).
Who is more likely to be knocked out, and who to be submitted?
Gemini
Figueiredo is knocked out in 33% and submitted in 4%. Talbott is knocked out in 5% and submitted in 6%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Figueiredo is knocked out in 32% and submitted in 4%. Talbott is knocked out in 6% and submitted in 8%.
Claude
Figueiredo is knocked out in 30% and submitted in 10%. Talbott is knocked out in 14% and submitted in 3%.
How lopsided is this fight?
Gemini
Lopsided: 81% vs 19%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Lopsided: 76% vs 24%.
Claude
Lopsided: 78% vs 22%.
Each fighter's single most likely way to win
Gemini
Figueiredo by decision: 8%. Talbott by decision: 44%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Figueiredo by decision: 10%. Talbott by decision: 40%.
How big an upset would it be if the underdog wins?
Gemini
Figueiredo wins 19% (about 1 in 5 fights): a big upset.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Figueiredo wins 24% (about 1 in 4 fights): a big upset.
Claude
Figueiredo wins 22% (about 1 in 5 fights): a big upset.
Timing 1 question
Chance it goes to a decision
Gemini
52%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
50%.
Claude
43%.
What if 1 question
If it goes to the judges, who wins?
Gemini
If it goes to the judges: Figueiredo 15%, Talbott 85%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
If it goes to the judges: Figueiredo 20%, Talbott 80%.
Claude
If it goes to the judges: Figueiredo 12%, Talbott 88%.
Compared with others 3 questions
How does it compare with analyst picks?
Gemini
Of 42 analyst picks, 2 back Figueiredo and 40 back Talbott. This model picks Talbott (81%).
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Of 42 analyst picks, 2 back Figueiredo and 40 back Talbott. This model picks Talbott (76%).
Claude
Of 42 analyst picks, 2 back Figueiredo and 40 back Talbott. This model picks Talbott (78%).
Which model is most confident on Figueiredo, and which on Talbott?
Gemini
On Figueiredo: ChatGPT (24%). On Talbott: Gemini (81%).
Which analyst agrees most with this model?
Gemini
Timothy Wheaton (Talbott by decision), Chris Cross (Talbott by decision), James Lynch (Talbott by decision), Carlos Cano (Talbott by decision), Brent Brookhouse (Talbott by decision), Shakiel Mahjouri (Talbott by decision), Mate Bersenadze (Talbott by decision) and FightIQ (Talbott by decision): the same winner and method as this model, tied; this model favours Talbott, most likely by decision.
How sure 4 questions
When was this forecast made, and by which model version?
Gemini
On 29 Sep 2026, by a model version the provider did not report.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
On 27 Sep 2026, by gpt-6-astra.
Claude
On 27 Sep 2026, by claude-sonnet-5.
What can't the model know?
FightCard
Models research public information before the fight, such as records, styles, recent results and coverage. They cannot see inside training camps, injuries nobody has reported, or what happens on the night. A small chance is not no chance: outcomes the model rates at a few percent still happen, and big favourites lose sometimes.
How is "confidence" worked out?
FightCard
Confidence restates the favourite's win chance on a 10-step scale: the win chance in tens, rounded, so 55% is 6 of 10 and 95% or more is 10 of 10. 1 to 3 reads Low, 4 to 6 Medium and 7 to 10 High. A favourite usually has at least half the chance, so most picks show 5 or more. When the model has the fighters exactly even, there is no pick and no confidence level. It is not a separate judgement by the model.
What counts as a KO, a decision or a draw?
FightCard
KO/TKO includes referee, doctor and corner stoppages, and disqualifications. A decision includes a fight stopped early and scored on the judges' cards. A stoppage between rounds counts as a finish in the round that just ended. A draw and a no contest share one outcome.
After the fight 1 question
Was the actual result in this model's top 3?
Gemini
Yes.
Version not reported · 29 Sep68 of 108 winner picks correct · 63% hit rate
AI-generated · Not betting advice · 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-MY-RESET
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