Alexander Hernandez defeats Rafael Dos Anjos by KO/TKO
Round 2 · 3:12
Rafael Dos Anjos vs Hernandez — Lightweight · UFC 332: Silva vs. Wang
Predictions summary
What happened
The result, the defining moments, and what the verdict means.
Dos Anjos looked sharp in the first round, giving Hernandez little space and landing shots throughout.
Hernandez wobbled him just before the horn and carried that momentum into the second.
He stung Dos Anjos early in the round and finished him just after the midpoint.
- primaryUFC 332 prelim results
Pre-fight analysis — how we saw it going in
Case for Rafael Dos Anjos
Dos Anjos brings veteran all-phase experience.
Case for Hernandez
Hernandez brings athletic pressure.
What We Were Watching For
- Veteran craft against pace.
- Who controls the clinch.
Records & career stats
- 3.48 4.23
- 60% 60%
- 3.25 4.4
- 55% 69%
- 50% 58%
- 32-17-0
- Record
- 18-9-0
- —
- Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
- Source pending
- Brazil
- Nationality
- United States
- 41
- Age
- 34
- —
- StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
- Not published
- 14:22
- Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
- 10:15
Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Record is as of fight night; career stats, recent form and win totals are the latest on file and may include this fight. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.
Videos
Outcome footage, post-fight coverage, and the pre-fight lead-up.
Before the fight (1)
Comments
Who Called It?
How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.
Current pick evidence
Picked: Rafael Dos Anjos · Dec
Fight result: Alexander Hernandez · KO/TKO
KingofCrackdown5095 picks Rafael dos Anjos by decision.
Track record: winner called in 37 of 63 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 58.7% (37 hit, 26 miss, across 63 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 65.6% (21 hit, 11 miss, across 32 method-scored calls on 63 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 42.1% (8 hit, 11 miss, across 19 round-scored calls on 63 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 42.9% (3 hit, 4 miss, across 7 underdog calls on 63 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 58.7% 37 26
- Method Accuracy 65.6% 21 11
- Round Accuracy 42.1% 8 11
- Underdog Accuracy 42.9% 3 4
Current pick evidence
Picked: Rafael Dos Anjos
Fight result: Alexander Hernandez · KO/TKO
Walk The Line MMA selects Rafael Dos Anjos.
Track record: winner called in 27 of 54 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 50.0% (27 hit, 27 miss, across 54 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 57.9% (11 hit, 8 miss, across 19 method-scored calls on 54 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 40.0% (2 hit, 3 miss, across 5 round-scored calls on 54 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 12.5% (1 hit, 7 miss, across 8 underdog calls on 54 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 50.0% 27 27
- Method Accuracy 57.9% 11 8
- Round Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
- Underdog Accuracy 12.5% 1 7
Current pick evidence
Picked: Rafael Dos Anjos · Dec
Fight result: Alexander Hernandez · KO/TKO
Picks dos Anjos by decision for his more technical striking, distance control, defense, composure and grappling. He acknowledges concerns about age, inactivity and the return to lightweight but believes dos Anjos can still win the minutes against Hernandez.
Track record: winner called in 20 of 41 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 48.8% (20 hit, 21 miss, across 41 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 85.7% (12 hit, 2 miss, across 14 method-scored calls on 41 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 100.0% (2 hit, 0 miss, across 2 round-scored calls on 41 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 14.3% (1 hit, 6 miss, across 7 underdog calls on 41 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 48.8% 20 21
- Method Accuracy 85.7% 12 2
- Round Accuracy 100.0% 2
- Underdog Accuracy 14.3% 1 6
Current pick evidence
Picked: Rafael Dos Anjos
Fight result: Alexander Hernandez · KO/TKO
FIGHT//AI’s selected value bet names Rafael Dos Anjos.
Track record: winner called in 49 of 153 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 32.0% (49 hit, 104 miss, across 153 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 50.0% (1 hit, 1 miss, across 2 method-scored calls on 153 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 20.0% (20 hit, 80 miss, across 100 underdog calls on 153 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 32.0% 49 104
- Method Accuracy 50.0% 1 1
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 20.0% 20 80
Current pick evidence
Picked: Alexander Hernandez
Fight result: Alexander Hernandez · KO/TKO
Highlights Hernandez as his first betting opportunity because all tracked best overall, favorite, and underdog predictors back him; discusses KO/TKO as a conditional alternative to the moneyline.
Track record builds as we verify their past calls.
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 100.0% (3 hit, 0 miss, across 3 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy: No underdog calls with a known pre-fight price.
- Winner Accuracy 100.0% 3
- Method AccuracyCalls the winner, not the method
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog AccuracyNo underdog calls with a known pre-fight price
Current pick evidence
Picked: Alexander Hernandez · KO/TKO · Round 1
Fight result: Alexander Hernandez · KO/TKO
Expects Hernandez’s right cross to catch an aging dos Anjos and doubts dos Anjos can outwrestle him.
Track record: winner called in 11 of 12 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 91.7% (11 hit, 1 miss, across 12 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 90.9% (10 hit, 1 miss, across 11 method-scored calls on 12 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 44.4% (4 hit, 5 miss, across 9 round-scored calls on 12 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy: No underdog calls with a known pre-fight price.
- Winner Accuracy 91.7% 11 1
- Method Accuracy 90.9% 10 1
- Round Accuracy 44.4% 4 5
- Underdog AccuracyNo underdog calls with a known pre-fight price
Current pick evidence
Picked: Alexander Hernandez · Dec
Fight result: Alexander Hernandez · KO/TKO
Bedtime expects Hernandez to attack dos Anjos’s lead leg with calf kicks in their southpaw matchup. He expects Hernandez’s movement to avoid the body kicks and make dos Anjos’s takedowns harder to complete. He also favors Hernandez’s conditioning against the older dos Anjos and picks a 30–27 decision rather than a knockout. He acknowledges that dos Anjos could still catch Hernandez in a submission.
“Uh, I think that Hernandez is going to win this fight. I think it's going to be a decision.”
Track record: winner called in 132 of 185 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 71.4% (132 hit, 53 miss, across 185 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 61.9% (60 hit, 37 miss, across 97 method-scored calls on 185 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 40.7% (11 hit, 16 miss, across 27 round-scored calls on 185 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 48.7% (19 hit, 20 miss, across 39 underdog calls on 185 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 71.4% 132 53
- Method Accuracy 61.9% 60 37
- Round Accuracy 40.7% 11 16
- Underdog Accuracy 48.7% 19 20
Current pick evidence
Picked: Alexander Hernandez · Dec
Fight result: Alexander Hernandez · KO/TKO
He expects Hernandez to defend most of Dos Anjos's takedowns and use lateral movement and pressure to make RDA work going backward, where he says RDA's game is weaker. He also favors Hernandez's wrestling and athleticism and predicts a decision.
- He says Dos Anjos is more effective on top than while defending and working from bottom.
“And ultimately, I see him decisioning RDA.”
Track record: winner called in 115 of 163 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 70.6% (115 hit, 48 miss, across 163 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 61.8% (47 hit, 29 miss, across 76 method-scored calls on 163 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 36.5% (19 hit, 33 miss, across 52 round-scored calls on 163 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 52.9% (9 hit, 8 miss, across 17 underdog calls on 163 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 70.6% 115 48
- Method Accuracy 61.8% 47 29
- Round Accuracy 36.5% 19 33
- Underdog Accuracy 52.9% 9 8
Current pick evidence
Picked: Alexander Hernandez · Dec
Fight result: Alexander Hernandez · KO/TKO
FightIQ's public record lists Alexander Hernandez as its pick over Rafael Dos Anjos.
Track record: winner called in 159 of 227 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 70.0% (159 hit, 68 miss, across 227 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 39.9% (59 hit, 89 miss, across 148 method-scored calls on 227 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 55.0% (11 hit, 9 miss, across 20 underdog calls on 227 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 70.0% 159 68
- Method Accuracy 39.9% 59 89
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 55.0% 11 9
Current pick evidence
Picked: Alexander Hernandez · Dec
Fight result: Alexander Hernandez · KO/TKO
Jimbo Ortega MMA selects Alexander Hernandez by decision.
Track record: winner called in 38 of 56 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 67.9% (38 hit, 18 miss, across 56 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 62.1% (18 hit, 11 miss, across 29 method-scored calls on 56 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 50.0% (1 hit, 1 miss, across 2 round-scored calls on 56 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 50.0% (4 hit, 4 miss, across 8 underdog calls on 56 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 67.9% 38 18
- Method Accuracy 62.1% 18 11
- Round Accuracy 50.0% 1 1
- Underdog Accuracy 50.0% 4 4
Current pick evidence
Picked: Alexander Hernandez · Dec
Fight result: Alexander Hernandez · KO/TKO
Feely cites Hernandez’s athletic advantage and dos Anjos’s age and injury layoff. He predicts Hernandez can manage the fight over three rounds.
Track record: winner called in 23 of 34 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 67.6% (23 hit, 11 miss, across 34 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 66.7% (14 hit, 7 miss, across 21 method-scored calls on 34 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 50.0% (5 hit, 5 miss, across 10 round-scored calls on 34 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (1 hit, 2 miss, across 3 underdog calls on 34 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 67.6% 23 11
- Method Accuracy 66.7% 14 7
- Round Accuracy 50.0% 5 5
- Underdog Accuracy 33.3% 1 2
Current pick evidence
Picked: Alexander Hernandez
Fight result: Alexander Hernandez · KO/TKO
Chiesa considers Dos Anjos' two-year layoff a major disadvantage against Hernandez' speed, explosiveness and technical ability. He expects Hernandez to finish inside the distance.
“I'm going with Alexander Hernandez.”
Track record: winner called in 50 of 75 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 66.7% (50 hit, 25 miss, across 75 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 40.0% (2 hit, 3 miss, across 5 method-scored calls on 75 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 16.7% (2 hit, 10 miss, across 12 underdog calls on 75 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 66.7% 50 25
- Method Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 16.7% 2 10
Current pick evidence
Picked: Alexander Hernandez · Dec
Fight result: Alexander Hernandez · KO/TKO
Favors Hernandez’s boxing but thinks dos Anjos is durable enough to avoid being finished.
Track record: winner called in 14 of 21 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 66.7% (14 hit, 7 miss, across 21 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 66.7% (6 hit, 3 miss, across 9 method-scored calls on 21 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 40.0% (2 hit, 3 miss, across 5 round-scored calls on 21 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy: No underdog calls with a known pre-fight price.
- Winner Accuracy 66.7% 14 7
- Method Accuracy 66.7% 6 3
- Round Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
- Underdog AccuracyNo underdog calls with a known pre-fight price
Current pick evidence
Picked: Alexander Hernandez · KO/TKO
Fight result: Alexander Hernandez · KO/TKO
Favors Hernandez to get an early stoppage. Doubts dos Anjos can return successfully after a lengthy layoff following his knee injury, and does not expect him to outgrapple Hernandez.
Track record: winner called in 213 of 322 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 66.1% (213 hit, 109 miss, across 322 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 53.4% (62 hit, 54 miss, across 116 method-scored calls on 322 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 35.9% (14 hit, 25 miss, across 39 round-scored calls on 322 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 47.4% (18 hit, 20 miss, across 38 underdog calls on 322 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 66.1% 213 109
- Method Accuracy 53.4% 62 54
- Round Accuracy 35.9% 14 25
- Underdog Accuracy 47.4% 18 20
Current pick evidence
Picked: Alexander Hernandez · Dec
Fight result: Alexander Hernandez · KO/TKO
Jake picks Alexander Hernandez by decision.
“Hernandez by decision, and Walker by”
Track record: winner called in 101 of 154 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 65.6% (101 hit, 53 miss, across 154 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 60.0% (39 hit, 26 miss, across 65 method-scored calls on 154 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 35.7% (5 hit, 9 miss, across 14 round-scored calls on 154 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (4 hit, 8 miss, across 12 underdog calls on 154 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 65.6% 101 53
- Method Accuracy 60.0% 39 26
- Round Accuracy 35.7% 5 9
- Underdog Accuracy 33.3% 4 8
Current pick evidence
Picked: Alexander Hernandez · KO/TKO · Round 3
Fight result: Alexander Hernandez · KO/TKO
Expects Hernandez’s blitzes and lateral footwork to catch dos Anjos, who may survive early trouble before Hernandez finishes him in round three.
Track record: winner called in 24 of 37 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 64.9% (24 hit, 13 miss, across 37 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 60.9% (14 hit, 9 miss, across 23 method-scored calls on 37 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 21.4% (3 hit, 11 miss, across 14 round-scored calls on 37 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 40.0% (2 hit, 3 miss, across 5 underdog calls on 37 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 64.9% 24 13
- Method Accuracy 60.9% 14 9
- Round Accuracy 21.4% 3 11
- Underdog Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
Current pick evidence
Picked: Alexander Hernandez
Fight result: Alexander Hernandez · KO/TKO
Tony Sink selects Alexander Hernandez in a winner-only call.
Track record: winner called in 11 of 17 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 64.7% (11 hit, 6 miss, across 17 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 60.0% (3 hit, 2 miss, across 5 underdog calls on 17 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 64.7% 11 6
- Method AccuracyCalls the winner, not the method
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 60.0% 3 2
Current pick evidence
Picked: Alexander Hernandez · KO/TKO
Fight result: Alexander Hernandez · KO/TKO
Mate Bersenadze picks Alexander Hernandez by KO/TKO, per his UFC 332 preview.
Track record: winner called in 33 of 52 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 63.5% (33 hit, 19 miss, across 52 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 51.5% (17 hit, 16 miss, across 33 method-scored calls on 52 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 100.0% (1 hit, 0 miss, across 1 round-scored calls on 52 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (2 hit, 4 miss, across 6 underdog calls on 52 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 63.5% 33 19
- Method Accuracy 51.5% 17 16
- Round Accuracy 100.0% 1
- Underdog Accuracy 33.3% 2 4
Current pick evidence
Picked: Alexander Hernandez · KO/TKO
Fight result: Alexander Hernandez · KO/TKO
Livid Larry MMA selects Alexander Hernandez by ko/tko.
Track record: winner called in 34 of 54 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 63.0% (34 hit, 20 miss, across 54 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 79.2% (19 hit, 5 miss, across 24 method-scored calls on 54 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 75.0% (3 hit, 1 miss, across 4 round-scored calls on 54 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 38.5% (5 hit, 8 miss, across 13 underdog calls on 54 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 63.0% 34 20
- Method Accuracy 79.2% 19 5
- Round Accuracy 75.0% 3 1
- Underdog Accuracy 38.5% 5 8
Current pick evidence
Picked: Alexander Hernandez
Fight result: Alexander Hernandez · KO/TKO
Favors Hernandez’s explosiveness, strength and speed, and thinks his grappling can stop dos Anjos’s grappling.
Track record: winner called in 5 of 8 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 62.5% (5 hit, 3 miss, across 8 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy: No underdog calls with a known pre-fight price.
- Winner Accuracy 62.5% 5 3
- Method AccuracyCalls the winner, not the method
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog AccuracyNo underdog calls with a known pre-fight price
Current pick evidence
Picked: Alexander Hernandez · KO/TKO · Round 1
Fight result: Alexander Hernandez · KO/TKO
HopperoMMA selects Alexander Hernandez by ko/tko in round 1.
Track record: winner called in 92 of 148 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 62.2% (92 hit, 56 miss, across 148 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 60.8% (45 hit, 29 miss, across 74 method-scored calls on 148 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 48.8% (20 hit, 21 miss, across 41 round-scored calls on 148 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 26.9% (7 hit, 19 miss, across 26 underdog calls on 148 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 62.2% 92 56
- Method Accuracy 60.8% 45 29
- Round Accuracy 48.8% 20 21
- Underdog Accuracy 26.9% 7 19
Current pick evidence
Picked: Alexander Hernandez · Dec
Fight result: Alexander Hernandez · KO/TKO
Lynch picks Hernandez by decision.
Track record: winner called in 36 of 59 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 61.0% (36 hit, 23 miss, across 59 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 45.0% (9 hit, 11 miss, across 20 method-scored calls on 59 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 5 miss, across 5 round-scored calls on 59 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 60.0% (3 hit, 2 miss, across 5 underdog calls on 59 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 61.0% 36 23
- Method Accuracy 45.0% 9 11
- Round Accuracy 0.0% 5
- Underdog Accuracy 60.0% 3 2
Current pick evidence
Picked: Alexander Hernandez
Fight result: Alexander Hernandez · KO/TKO
MMA Mathletes selects Alexander Hernandez.
Track record: winner called in 32 of 54 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 59.3% (32 hit, 22 miss, across 54 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 63.6% (7 hit, 4 miss, across 11 method-scored calls on 54 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 100.0% (1 hit, 0 miss, across 1 round-scored calls on 54 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 28.6% (2 hit, 5 miss, across 7 underdog calls on 54 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 59.3% 32 22
- Method Accuracy 63.6% 7 4
- Round Accuracy 100.0% 1
- Underdog Accuracy 28.6% 2 5
Current pick evidence
Picked: Alexander Hernandez · KO/TKO
Fight result: Alexander Hernandez · KO/TKO
Kunath selects Alexander Hernandez by ko/tko.
Track record: winner called in 38 of 65 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 58.5% (38 hit, 27 miss, across 65 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 56.7% (17 hit, 13 miss, across 30 method-scored calls on 65 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 40.0% (2 hit, 3 miss, across 5 round-scored calls on 65 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 25.0% (3 hit, 9 miss, across 12 underdog calls on 65 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 58.5% 38 27
- Method Accuracy 56.7% 17 13
- Round Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
- Underdog Accuracy 25.0% 3 9
Current pick evidence
Picked: Alexander Hernandez · KO/TKO
Fight result: Alexander Hernandez · KO/TKO
Picks Hernandez despite reservations about his level and acknowledges that dos Anjos could still win.
Track record: winner called in 7 of 12 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 58.3% (7 hit, 5 miss, across 12 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 85.7% (6 hit, 1 miss, across 7 method-scored calls on 12 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy: No underdog calls with a known pre-fight price.
- Winner Accuracy 58.3% 7 5
- Method Accuracy 85.7% 6 1
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog AccuracyNo underdog calls with a known pre-fight price
Current pick evidence
Picked: Alexander Hernandez · Dec
Fight result: Alexander Hernandez · KO/TKO
Bodetti favors Hernandez’s youth, speed, power and athleticism against dos Anjos. He expects a straightforward decision, while questioning whether it will produce a useful fantasy score.
Track record: winner called in 29 of 50 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 58.0% (29 hit, 21 miss, across 50 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 60.0% (3 hit, 2 miss, across 5 method-scored calls on 50 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 100.0% (1 hit, 0 miss, across 1 round-scored calls on 50 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 40.0% (2 hit, 3 miss, across 5 underdog calls on 50 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 58.0% 29 21
- Method Accuracy 60.0% 3 2
- Round Accuracy 100.0% 1
- Underdog Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
Current pick evidence
Picked: Alexander Hernandez · KO/TKO
Fight result: Alexander Hernandez · KO/TKO
Expects Hernandez’s power and comfort on the feet to capitalize on dos Anjos’s accumulated wear. Thinks Hernandez has improved since returning to lightweight.
Track record: winner called in 55 of 95 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 57.9% (55 hit, 40 miss, across 95 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 63.8% (30 hit, 17 miss, across 47 method-scored calls on 95 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 60.0% (6 hit, 4 miss, across 10 round-scored calls on 95 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 23.5% (4 hit, 13 miss, across 17 underdog calls on 95 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 57.9% 55 40
- Method Accuracy 63.8% 30 17
- Round Accuracy 60.0% 6 4
- Underdog Accuracy 23.5% 4 13
Current pick evidence
Picked: Alexander Hernandez · KO/TKO · Round 2
Fight result: Alexander Hernandez · KO/TKO
Expects Hernandez’s counter offense to catch an advancing dos Anjos returning from a long layoff. Predicts a second-round knockout.
Track record: winner called in 13 of 23 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 56.5% (13 hit, 10 miss, across 23 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 100.0% (7 hit, 0 miss, across 7 method-scored calls on 23 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 83.3% (5 hit, 1 miss, across 6 round-scored calls on 23 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy: No underdog calls with a known pre-fight price.
- Winner Accuracy 56.5% 13 10
- Method Accuracy 100.0% 7
- Round Accuracy 83.3% 5 1
- Underdog AccuracyNo underdog calls with a known pre-fight price
Current pick evidence
Picked: Alexander Hernandez
Fight result: Alexander Hernandez · KO/TKO
Litterine selects Alexander Hernandez in a winner-only call.
Track record: winner called in 70 of 124 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 56.5% (70 hit, 54 miss, across 124 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 28.0% (7 hit, 18 miss, across 25 underdog calls on 124 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 56.5% 70 54
- Method AccuracyNamed methods — none on a correct call yet
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 28.0% 7 18
Current pick evidence
Picked: Alexander Hernandez · Dec
Fight result: Alexander Hernandez · KO/TKO
Fight Productions selects Alexander Hernandez by decision.
Track record: winner called in 37 of 66 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 56.1% (37 hit, 29 miss, across 66 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 75.7% (28 hit, 9 miss, across 37 method-scored calls on 66 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 41.7% (10 hit, 14 miss, across 24 round-scored calls on 66 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 25.0% (2 hit, 6 miss, across 8 underdog calls on 66 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 56.1% 37 29
- Method Accuracy 75.7% 28 9
- Round Accuracy 41.7% 10 14
- Underdog Accuracy 25.0% 2 6
Current pick evidence
Picked: Alexander Hernandez
Fight result: Alexander Hernandez · KO/TKO
Clenbat selects Alexander Hernandez in a winner-only call.
Track record: winner called in 27 of 49 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 55.1% (27 hit, 22 miss, across 49 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 37.5% (3 hit, 5 miss, across 8 underdog calls on 49 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 55.1% 27 22
- Method AccuracyNamed methods — none on a correct call yet
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 37.5% 3 5
Current pick evidence
Picked: Alexander Hernandez · Dec
Fight result: Alexander Hernandez · KO/TKO
The Finz Chats selects Alexander Hernandez by decision.
Track record: winner called in 12 of 22 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 54.5% (12 hit, 10 miss, across 22 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 42.9% (3 hit, 4 miss, across 7 method-scored calls on 22 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 100.0% (1 hit, 0 miss, across 1 round-scored calls on 22 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 66.7% (2 hit, 1 miss, across 3 underdog calls on 22 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 54.5% 12 10
- Method Accuracy 42.9% 3 4
- Round Accuracy 100.0% 1
- Underdog Accuracy 66.7% 2 1
Current pick evidence
Picked: Alexander Hernandez · KO/TKO · Round 1
Fight result: Alexander Hernandez · KO/TKO
Schweppe picks Alexander Hernandez to win by first-round knockout.
Track record: winner called in 53 of 99 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 53.5% (53 hit, 46 miss, across 99 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 47.2% (25 hit, 28 miss, across 53 method-scored calls on 99 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 33.3% (10 hit, 20 miss, across 30 round-scored calls on 99 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (10 hit, 20 miss, across 30 underdog calls on 99 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 53.5% 53 46
- Method Accuracy 47.2% 25 28
- Round Accuracy 33.3% 10 20
- Underdog Accuracy 33.3% 10 20
Current pick evidence
Picked: Alexander Hernandez · KO/TKO · Round 1
Fight result: Alexander Hernandez · KO/TKO
Fades dos Anjos’s age, two-year layoff and major knee injury against Hernandez’s explosiveness.
Track record: winner called in 11 of 21 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 52.4% (11 hit, 10 miss, across 21 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 80.0% (4 hit, 1 miss, across 5 method-scored calls on 21 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 66.7% (2 hit, 1 miss, across 3 round-scored calls on 21 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 100.0% (1 hit, 0 miss, across 1 underdog calls on 21 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 52.4% 11 10
- Method Accuracy 80.0% 4 1
- Round Accuracy 66.7% 2 1
- Underdog Accuracy 100.0% 1
Current pick evidence
Picked: Alexander Hernandez
Fight result: Alexander Hernandez · KO/TKO
The MMA Yuda selects Alexander Hernandez.
Track record: winner called in 30 of 58 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 51.7% (30 hit, 28 miss, across 58 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 1 miss, across 1 method-scored calls on 58 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Underdog Accuracy 40.0% (4 hit, 6 miss, across 10 underdog calls on 58 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 51.7% 30 28
- Method Accuracy 0.0% 1
- Round AccuracyNamed rounds — none on a correct call yet
- Underdog Accuracy 40.0% 4 6
Current pick evidence
Picked: Alexander Hernandez · KO/TKO · Round 1
Fight result: Alexander Hernandez · KO/TKO
Greedo Plays MMA selects Alexander Hernandez by ko/tko in round 1.
Track record: winner called in 37 of 72 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 51.4% (37 hit, 35 miss, across 72 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 63.3% (19 hit, 11 miss, across 30 method-scored calls on 72 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 57.1% (8 hit, 6 miss, across 14 round-scored calls on 72 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 23.1% (3 hit, 10 miss, across 13 underdog calls on 72 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 51.4% 37 35
- Method Accuracy 63.3% 19 11
- Round Accuracy 57.1% 8 6
- Underdog Accuracy 23.1% 3 10
Current pick evidence
Picked: Alexander Hernandez · Dec
Fight result: Alexander Hernandez · KO/TKO
Expects Hernandez to win but thinks dos Anjos’s ability to trade will command enough respect to prevent a stoppage.
Track record: winner called in 6 of 12 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 50.0% (6 hit, 6 miss, across 12 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 16.7% (1 hit, 5 miss, across 6 method-scored calls on 12 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 4 miss, across 4 round-scored calls on 12 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy: No underdog calls with a known pre-fight price.
- Winner Accuracy 50.0% 6 6
- Method Accuracy 16.7% 1 5
- Round Accuracy 0.0% 4
- Underdog AccuracyNo underdog calls with a known pre-fight price
Current pick evidence
Picked: Alexander Hernandez · Dec
Fight result: Alexander Hernandez · KO/TKO
Chris Cross picks Alexander Hernandez to win by decision, expecting him to keep the fight standing and win two rounds.
Track record: winner called in 8 of 20 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 40.0% (8 hit, 12 miss, across 20 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 25.0% (1 hit, 3 miss, across 4 method-scored calls on 20 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 1 miss, across 1 round-scored calls on 20 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 1 miss, across 1 underdog calls on 20 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 40.0% 8 12
- Method Accuracy 25.0% 1 3
- Round Accuracy 0.0% 1
- Underdog Accuracy 0.0% 1
Analyst picks: UFC Predictions Tracker Hit; Hank Hit; Bedtime MMA Hit; TheWeasle Hit; FightIQ Hit; Jimbo Ortega MMA Hit; Tom Feely Hit; Michael Chiesa Hit; Matt Hit; The MMA Guru Hit; JakeGerberMMA Hit; Fite Feed Hit; Tony Sink Hit; Mate Bersenadze Hit; Livid Larry MMA Hit; Picks with the Geek 2 Hit; HopperMMA Hit; James Lynch Hit; MMA Mathletes Hit; KingofCrackdown5095 Miss; Kunath Hit; The Octagon Oracle Hit; Angelo Bodetti Hit; Artem MMA Hit; BeewolfMMA Hit; Jon Litterine Hit; Fight Productions Hit; Clenbat Hit; The Finz Chats Hit; Chris Schweppe Hit; D.Rose Hit; The MMA Yuda Hit; Greedo Plays MMA Hit; Walk The Line MMA Miss; Vinny Hit; mmadbm Miss; Chris Cross Hit; FIGHT//AI Miss.
34 of 38 nailed it.
Chart: selected analyst picks, not a win probability. Pill badge: Winner hit rate (total scored picks before this event).
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The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.
Results
Each agent’s latest pre-fight call vs result; forecast dates may differ. Market: sportsbook snapshot or historic market reconstruction.
Actual Hernandez · KO/TKO · R2
Closest probability Gemini put 67% on Hernandez.
AI Predictions — latest pre-fight calls
Frozen final publication identity; the calls below retain each agent’s own publication.AI Predictions
Each agent’s latest pre-fight forecast. Dates are shown per agent.
ChatGPT
63 of 108 winner picks correct · 58% hit rate
Pick Hernandez
Most likely: Hernandez by decision, about 36 in 100
Win chance: Anjos 34%, Hernandez 66%.
Confidence 7 of 10 · High
Claude
61 of 101 winner picks correct · 60% hit rate
Pick Hernandez
Most likely: Hernandez by KO/TKO, about 32 in 100
Win chance: Anjos 38%, Hernandez 62%.
Confidence 6 of 10 · Medium
Gemini
68 of 108 winner picks correct · 63% hit rate
Pick Hernandez
Most likely: Hernandez by decision, about 43 in 100
Win chance: Anjos 33%, Hernandez 67%.
Confidence 7 of 10 · High
3 of 3 models pick Hernandez.
Questions
The result 7 questions
Who wins, and how likely?
ChatGPT
Hernandez: 66% (about 66 in 100 fights). Anjos: 34%.
Claude
Hernandez: 62% (about 62 in 100 fights). Anjos: 38%.
Gemini
Hernandez: 67% (about 67 in 100 fights). Anjos: 33%.
What is the single most likely outcome?
ChatGPT
Hernandez by decision: 36% (about 36 in 100).
Claude
Hernandez by KO/TKO: 32% (about 32 in 100).
Gemini
Hernandez by decision: 43% (about 43 in 100).
What are the three most likely outcomes, and why?
ChatGPT
1. Hernandez by decision (36%); 2. Hernandez by KO/TKO (29%); 3. Anjos by decision (19%)
Claude
1. Hernandez by KO/TKO (32%); 2. Hernandez by decision (26%); 3. Anjos by decision (24%)
Gemini
1. Hernandez by decision (43%); 2. Hernandez by KO/TKO (22%); 3. Anjos by decision (19%)
How confident is the model?
ChatGPT
7 of 10, based on Hernandez's 66% win chance.
Claude
6 of 10, based on Hernandez's 62% win chance.
Gemini
7 of 10, based on Hernandez's 67% win chance.
Does it end early or go to the judges?
ChatGPT
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 45%. Decision: 55%.
Claude
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 50%. Decision: 50%.
Gemini
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 38%. Decision: 62%.
How does Anjos win?
ChatGPT
Anjos wins 34%: KO/TKO 5%, submission 10%, decision 19%.
Claude
Anjos wins 38%: KO/TKO 8%, submission 6%, decision 24%.
Gemini
Anjos wins 33%: KO/TKO 5%, submission 9%, decision 19%.
How does Hernandez win?
ChatGPT
Hernandez wins 66%: KO/TKO 29%, submission 1%, decision 36%.
Claude
Hernandez wins 62%: KO/TKO 32%, submission 4%, decision 26%.
Gemini
Hernandez wins 67%: KO/TKO 22%, submission 2%, decision 43%.
What if 1 question
What is the upset path?
ChatGPT
Anjos's most likely upset: Anjos by decision (19%).
Claude
Anjos's most likely upset: Anjos by decision (24%).
Gemini
Anjos's most likely upset: Anjos by decision (19%).
Compared with others 1 question
Do the models agree?
All models
The models agree: all 3 pick Hernandez.
After the fight 1 question
What happened vs what the model said?
ChatGPT
Result: Hernandez by KO/TKO in round 2. Hernandez by KO/TKO was the model's number 2 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Hernandez by decision (36%).
Claude
Result: Hernandez by KO/TKO in round 2. Hernandez by KO/TKO was the model's most likely outcome.
Gemini
Result: Hernandez by KO/TKO in round 2. Hernandez by KO/TKO was the model's number 2 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Hernandez by decision (43%).
More questions (19)
The result 7 questions
KO/TKO vs submission vs decision overall
ChatGPT
KO/TKO 34%, submission 11%, decision 55%.
Claude
KO/TKO 40%, submission 10%, decision 50%.
Gemini
KO/TKO 27%, submission 11%, decision 62%.
Who is more likely to finish the other?
ChatGPT
Hernandez: 30%, against 15% for Anjos.
Claude
Hernandez: 36%, against 14% for Anjos.
Gemini
Hernandez: 24%, against 14% for Anjos.
Can Anjos get the finish? Can Hernandez?
ChatGPT
Anjos: 15% (KO/TKO 5%, submission 10%). Hernandez: 30% (KO/TKO 29%, submission 1%).
Claude
Anjos: 14% (KO/TKO 8%, submission 6%). Hernandez: 36% (KO/TKO 32%, submission 4%).
Gemini
Anjos: 14% (KO/TKO 5%, submission 9%). Hernandez: 24% (KO/TKO 22%, submission 2%).
Who is more likely to be knocked out, and who to be submitted?
ChatGPT
Anjos is knocked out in 29% and submitted in 1%. Hernandez is knocked out in 5% and submitted in 10%.
Claude
Anjos is knocked out in 32% and submitted in 4%. Hernandez is knocked out in 8% and submitted in 6%.
Gemini
Anjos is knocked out in 22% and submitted in 2%. Hernandez is knocked out in 5% and submitted in 9%.
How lopsided is this fight?
ChatGPT
Lopsided: 66% vs 34%.
Claude
A clear favourite: 62% vs 38%.
Gemini
Lopsided: 67% vs 33%.
Each fighter's single most likely way to win
ChatGPT
Anjos by decision: 19%. Hernandez by decision: 36%.
Gemini
Anjos by decision: 19%. Hernandez by decision: 43%.
How big an upset would it be if the underdog wins?
ChatGPT
Anjos wins 34% (about 1 in 3 fights): a big upset.
Claude
Anjos wins 38% (about 1 in 3 fights): a modest upset.
Gemini
Anjos wins 33% (about 1 in 3 fights): a big upset.
Timing 1 question
Chance it goes to a decision
ChatGPT
55%.
Claude
50%.
Gemini
62%.
What if 1 question
If it goes to the judges, who wins?
ChatGPT
If it goes to the judges: Anjos 35%, Hernandez 66%.
Claude
If it goes to the judges: Anjos 48%, Hernandez 52%.
Gemini
If it goes to the judges: Anjos 31%, Hernandez 69%.
Compared with others 5 questions
Where does this model differ from the others?
Claude
Biggest difference: Hernandez by decision, 26% here against 40% on average for the others.
Gemini
Biggest difference: Hernandez by decision, 43% here against 31% on average for the others.
How does it compare with analyst picks?
ChatGPT
Of 38 analyst picks, 4 back Anjos and 34 back Hernandez. This model picks Hernandez (66%).
Claude
Of 38 analyst picks, 4 back Anjos and 34 back Hernandez. This model picks Hernandez (62%).
Gemini
Of 38 analyst picks, 4 back Anjos and 34 back Hernandez. This model picks Hernandez (67%).
Which model is most confident on Anjos, and which on Hernandez?
All models
On Anjos: Claude (38%). On Hernandez: Gemini (67%).
Where do the models disagree most?
All models
Hernandez by decision: from 26% (Claude) to 43% (Gemini).
Which analyst agrees most with this model?
ChatGPT
Chris Cross (Hernandez by decision), James Lynch (Hernandez by decision), Tom Feely (Hernandez by decision), JakeGerberMMA (Hernandez by decision), The Finz Chats (Hernandez by decision), Jimbo Ortega MMA (Hernandez by decision), Fight Productions (Hernandez by decision), Vinny (Hernandez by decision), Matt (Hernandez by decision), Angelo Bodetti (Hernandez by decision), TheWeasle (Hernandez by decision), Bedtime MMA (Hernandez by decision) and FightIQ (Hernandez by decision): the same winner and method as this model, tied; this model favours Hernandez, most likely by decision.
Gemini
Chris Cross (Hernandez by decision), James Lynch (Hernandez by decision), Tom Feely (Hernandez by decision), JakeGerberMMA (Hernandez by decision), The Finz Chats (Hernandez by decision), Jimbo Ortega MMA (Hernandez by decision), Fight Productions (Hernandez by decision), Vinny (Hernandez by decision), Matt (Hernandez by decision), Angelo Bodetti (Hernandez by decision), TheWeasle (Hernandez by decision), Bedtime MMA (Hernandez by decision) and FightIQ (Hernandez by decision): the same winner and method as this model, tied; this model favours Hernandez, most likely by decision.
How sure 4 questions
When was this forecast made, and by which model version?
ChatGPT
On 27 Sep 2026, by gpt-6-astra.
Claude
On 27 Sep 2026, by claude-sonnet-5.
Gemini
On 29 Sep 2026, by a model version the provider did not report.
What can't the model know?
FightCard
Models research public information before the fight, such as records, styles, recent results and coverage. They cannot see inside training camps, injuries nobody has reported, or what happens on the night. A small chance is not no chance: outcomes the model rates at a few percent still happen, and big favourites lose sometimes.
How is "confidence" worked out?
FightCard
Confidence restates the favourite's win chance on a 10-step scale: the win chance in tens, rounded, so 55% is 6 of 10 and 95% or more is 10 of 10. 1 to 3 reads Low, 4 to 6 Medium and 7 to 10 High. A favourite usually has at least half the chance, so most picks show 5 or more. When the model has the fighters exactly even, there is no pick and no confidence level. It is not a separate judgement by the model.
What counts as a KO, a decision or a draw?
FightCard
KO/TKO includes referee, doctor and corner stoppages, and disqualifications. A decision includes a fight stopped early and scored on the judges' cards. A stoppage between rounds counts as a finish in the round that just ended. A draw and a no contest share one outcome.
After the fight 1 question
Was the actual result in this model's top 3?
All models
Yes.
ChatGPT
Pick
Hernandez
Confidence 7 of 10 · High
Most likely: Hernandez by decision, about 36 in 100
Win chance: Anjos 34%, Hernandez 66%.
Most likely outcomes
- Hernandez by decision36%
- Hernandez by KO/TKO29%
- Anjos by decision19%
- KO/TKO: Anjos 5%, Hernandez 29%.
- Submission: Anjos 10%, Hernandez 1%.
- Decision: Anjos 19%, Hernandez 36%.
Questions
The result 7 questions
Who wins, and how likely?
ChatGPT
Hernandez: 66% (about 66 in 100 fights). Anjos: 34%.
Other models' answers
Claude
Hernandez: 62% (about 62 in 100 fights). Anjos: 38%.
Gemini
Hernandez: 67% (about 67 in 100 fights). Anjos: 33%.
What is the single most likely outcome?
ChatGPT
Hernandez by decision: 36% (about 36 in 100).
Other models' answers
Claude
Hernandez by KO/TKO: 32% (about 32 in 100).
Gemini
Hernandez by decision: 43% (about 43 in 100).
What are the three most likely outcomes, and why?
ChatGPT
1. Hernandez by decision (36%); 2. Hernandez by KO/TKO (29%); 3. Anjos by decision (19%)
Other models' answers
Claude
1. Hernandez by KO/TKO (32%); 2. Hernandez by decision (26%); 3. Anjos by decision (24%)
Gemini
1. Hernandez by decision (43%); 2. Hernandez by KO/TKO (22%); 3. Anjos by decision (19%)
How confident is the model?
ChatGPT
7 of 10, based on Hernandez's 66% win chance.
Other models' answers
Claude
6 of 10, based on Hernandez's 62% win chance.
Gemini
7 of 10, based on Hernandez's 67% win chance.
Does it end early or go to the judges?
ChatGPT
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 45%. Decision: 55%.
Other models' answers
Claude
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 50%. Decision: 50%.
Gemini
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 38%. Decision: 62%.
How does Anjos win?
ChatGPT
Anjos wins 34%: KO/TKO 5%, submission 10%, decision 19%.
Other models' answers
Claude
Anjos wins 38%: KO/TKO 8%, submission 6%, decision 24%.
Gemini
Anjos wins 33%: KO/TKO 5%, submission 9%, decision 19%.
How does Hernandez win?
ChatGPT
Hernandez wins 66%: KO/TKO 29%, submission 1%, decision 36%.
Other models' answers
Claude
Hernandez wins 62%: KO/TKO 32%, submission 4%, decision 26%.
Gemini
Hernandez wins 67%: KO/TKO 22%, submission 2%, decision 43%.
What if 1 question
What is the upset path?
ChatGPT
Anjos's most likely upset: Anjos by decision (19%).
Other models' answers
Claude
Anjos's most likely upset: Anjos by decision (24%).
Compared with others 1 question
Do the models agree?
ChatGPT
The models agree: all 3 pick Hernandez.
After the fight 1 question
What happened vs what the model said?
ChatGPT
Result: Hernandez by KO/TKO in round 2. Hernandez by KO/TKO was the model's number 2 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Hernandez by decision (36%).
Other models' answers
Claude
Result: Hernandez by KO/TKO in round 2. Hernandez by KO/TKO was the model's most likely outcome.
Gemini
Result: Hernandez by KO/TKO in round 2. Hernandez by KO/TKO was the model's number 2 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Hernandez by decision (43%).
More questions (18)
The result 7 questions
KO/TKO vs submission vs decision overall
ChatGPT
KO/TKO 34%, submission 11%, decision 55%.
Other models' answers
Claude
KO/TKO 40%, submission 10%, decision 50%.
Gemini
KO/TKO 27%, submission 11%, decision 62%.
Who is more likely to finish the other?
ChatGPT
Hernandez: 30%, against 15% for Anjos.
Other models' answers
Claude
Hernandez: 36%, against 14% for Anjos.
Gemini
Hernandez: 24%, against 14% for Anjos.
Can Anjos get the finish? Can Hernandez?
ChatGPT
Anjos: 15% (KO/TKO 5%, submission 10%). Hernandez: 30% (KO/TKO 29%, submission 1%).
Other models' answers
Claude
Anjos: 14% (KO/TKO 8%, submission 6%). Hernandez: 36% (KO/TKO 32%, submission 4%).
Gemini
Anjos: 14% (KO/TKO 5%, submission 9%). Hernandez: 24% (KO/TKO 22%, submission 2%).
Who is more likely to be knocked out, and who to be submitted?
ChatGPT
Anjos is knocked out in 29% and submitted in 1%. Hernandez is knocked out in 5% and submitted in 10%.
Other models' answers
Claude
Anjos is knocked out in 32% and submitted in 4%. Hernandez is knocked out in 8% and submitted in 6%.
Gemini
Anjos is knocked out in 22% and submitted in 2%. Hernandez is knocked out in 5% and submitted in 9%.
How lopsided is this fight?
ChatGPT
Lopsided: 66% vs 34%.
Other models' answers
Claude
A clear favourite: 62% vs 38%.
Gemini
Lopsided: 67% vs 33%.
Each fighter's single most likely way to win
ChatGPT
Anjos by decision: 19%. Hernandez by decision: 36%.
Other models' answers
Gemini
Anjos by decision: 19%. Hernandez by decision: 43%.
How big an upset would it be if the underdog wins?
ChatGPT
Anjos wins 34% (about 1 in 3 fights): a big upset.
Other models' answers
Claude
Anjos wins 38% (about 1 in 3 fights): a modest upset.
Gemini
Anjos wins 33% (about 1 in 3 fights): a big upset.
Timing 1 question
Chance it goes to a decision
ChatGPT
55%.
Other models' answers
Claude
50%.
Gemini
62%.
What if 1 question
If it goes to the judges, who wins?
ChatGPT
If it goes to the judges: Anjos 35%, Hernandez 66%.
Other models' answers
Claude
If it goes to the judges: Anjos 48%, Hernandez 52%.
Gemini
If it goes to the judges: Anjos 31%, Hernandez 69%.
Compared with others 4 questions
How does it compare with analyst picks?
ChatGPT
Of 38 analyst picks, 4 back Anjos and 34 back Hernandez. This model picks Hernandez (66%).
Other models' answers
Claude
Of 38 analyst picks, 4 back Anjos and 34 back Hernandez. This model picks Hernandez (62%).
Gemini
Of 38 analyst picks, 4 back Anjos and 34 back Hernandez. This model picks Hernandez (67%).
Which model is most confident on Anjos, and which on Hernandez?
ChatGPT
On Anjos: Claude (38%). On Hernandez: Gemini (67%).
Where do the models disagree most?
ChatGPT
Hernandez by decision: from 26% (Claude) to 43% (Gemini).
Which analyst agrees most with this model?
ChatGPT
Chris Cross (Hernandez by decision), James Lynch (Hernandez by decision), Tom Feely (Hernandez by decision), JakeGerberMMA (Hernandez by decision), The Finz Chats (Hernandez by decision), Jimbo Ortega MMA (Hernandez by decision), Fight Productions (Hernandez by decision), Vinny (Hernandez by decision), Matt (Hernandez by decision), Angelo Bodetti (Hernandez by decision), TheWeasle (Hernandez by decision), Bedtime MMA (Hernandez by decision) and FightIQ (Hernandez by decision): the same winner and method as this model, tied; this model favours Hernandez, most likely by decision.
How sure 4 questions
When was this forecast made, and by which model version?
ChatGPT
On 27 Sep 2026, by gpt-6-astra.
Other models' answers
Claude
On 27 Sep 2026, by claude-sonnet-5.
Gemini
On 29 Sep 2026, by a model version the provider did not report.
What can't the model know?
FightCard
Models research public information before the fight, such as records, styles, recent results and coverage. They cannot see inside training camps, injuries nobody has reported, or what happens on the night. A small chance is not no chance: outcomes the model rates at a few percent still happen, and big favourites lose sometimes.
How is "confidence" worked out?
FightCard
Confidence restates the favourite's win chance on a 10-step scale: the win chance in tens, rounded, so 55% is 6 of 10 and 95% or more is 10 of 10. 1 to 3 reads Low, 4 to 6 Medium and 7 to 10 High. A favourite usually has at least half the chance, so most picks show 5 or more. When the model has the fighters exactly even, there is no pick and no confidence level. It is not a separate judgement by the model.
What counts as a KO, a decision or a draw?
FightCard
KO/TKO includes referee, doctor and corner stoppages, and disqualifications. A decision includes a fight stopped early and scored on the judges' cards. A stoppage between rounds counts as a finish in the round that just ended. A draw and a no contest share one outcome.
After the fight 1 question
Was the actual result in this model's top 3?
ChatGPT
Yes.
gpt-6-astra · 27 Sep63 of 108 winner picks correct · 58% hit rate
Claude
Pick
Hernandez
Confidence 6 of 10 · Medium
Most likely: Hernandez by KO/TKO, about 32 in 100
The model's predicted finish round: 2.
Win chance: Anjos 38%, Hernandez 62%.
Most likely outcomes
- Hernandez by KO/TKO32%
- Hernandez by decision26%
- Anjos by decision24%
- KO/TKO: Anjos 8%, Hernandez 32%.
- Submission: Anjos 6%, Hernandez 4%.
- Decision: Anjos 24%, Hernandez 26%.
Questions
The result 7 questions
Who wins, and how likely?
Claude
Hernandez: 62% (about 62 in 100 fights). Anjos: 38%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Hernandez: 66% (about 66 in 100 fights). Anjos: 34%.
Gemini
Hernandez: 67% (about 67 in 100 fights). Anjos: 33%.
What is the single most likely outcome?
Claude
Hernandez by KO/TKO: 32% (about 32 in 100).
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Hernandez by decision: 36% (about 36 in 100).
Gemini
Hernandez by decision: 43% (about 43 in 100).
What are the three most likely outcomes, and why?
Claude
1. Hernandez by KO/TKO (32%); 2. Hernandez by decision (26%); 3. Anjos by decision (24%)
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
1. Hernandez by decision (36%); 2. Hernandez by KO/TKO (29%); 3. Anjos by decision (19%)
Gemini
1. Hernandez by decision (43%); 2. Hernandez by KO/TKO (22%); 3. Anjos by decision (19%)
How confident is the model?
Claude
6 of 10, based on Hernandez's 62% win chance.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
7 of 10, based on Hernandez's 66% win chance.
Gemini
7 of 10, based on Hernandez's 67% win chance.
Does it end early or go to the judges?
Claude
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 50%. Decision: 50%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 45%. Decision: 55%.
Gemini
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 38%. Decision: 62%.
How does Anjos win?
Claude
Anjos wins 38%: KO/TKO 8%, submission 6%, decision 24%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Anjos wins 34%: KO/TKO 5%, submission 10%, decision 19%.
Gemini
Anjos wins 33%: KO/TKO 5%, submission 9%, decision 19%.
How does Hernandez win?
Claude
Hernandez wins 62%: KO/TKO 32%, submission 4%, decision 26%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Hernandez wins 66%: KO/TKO 29%, submission 1%, decision 36%.
Gemini
Hernandez wins 67%: KO/TKO 22%, submission 2%, decision 43%.
What if 1 question
What is the upset path?
Claude
Anjos's most likely upset: Anjos by decision (24%).
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Anjos's most likely upset: Anjos by decision (19%).
Gemini
Anjos's most likely upset: Anjos by decision (19%).
Compared with others 1 question
Do the models agree?
Claude
The models agree: all 3 pick Hernandez.
After the fight 1 question
What happened vs what the model said?
Claude
Result: Hernandez by KO/TKO in round 2. Hernandez by KO/TKO was the model's most likely outcome.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Result: Hernandez by KO/TKO in round 2. Hernandez by KO/TKO was the model's number 2 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Hernandez by decision (36%).
Gemini
Result: Hernandez by KO/TKO in round 2. Hernandez by KO/TKO was the model's number 2 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Hernandez by decision (43%).
More questions (17)
The result 6 questions
KO/TKO vs submission vs decision overall
Claude
KO/TKO 40%, submission 10%, decision 50%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
KO/TKO 34%, submission 11%, decision 55%.
Gemini
KO/TKO 27%, submission 11%, decision 62%.
Who is more likely to finish the other?
Claude
Hernandez: 36%, against 14% for Anjos.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Hernandez: 30%, against 15% for Anjos.
Gemini
Hernandez: 24%, against 14% for Anjos.
Can Anjos get the finish? Can Hernandez?
Claude
Anjos: 14% (KO/TKO 8%, submission 6%). Hernandez: 36% (KO/TKO 32%, submission 4%).
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Anjos: 15% (KO/TKO 5%, submission 10%). Hernandez: 30% (KO/TKO 29%, submission 1%).
Gemini
Anjos: 14% (KO/TKO 5%, submission 9%). Hernandez: 24% (KO/TKO 22%, submission 2%).
Who is more likely to be knocked out, and who to be submitted?
Claude
Anjos is knocked out in 32% and submitted in 4%. Hernandez is knocked out in 8% and submitted in 6%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Anjos is knocked out in 29% and submitted in 1%. Hernandez is knocked out in 5% and submitted in 10%.
Gemini
Anjos is knocked out in 22% and submitted in 2%. Hernandez is knocked out in 5% and submitted in 9%.
How lopsided is this fight?
Claude
A clear favourite: 62% vs 38%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Lopsided: 66% vs 34%.
Gemini
Lopsided: 67% vs 33%.
How big an upset would it be if the underdog wins?
Claude
Anjos wins 38% (about 1 in 3 fights): a modest upset.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Anjos wins 34% (about 1 in 3 fights): a big upset.
Gemini
Anjos wins 33% (about 1 in 3 fights): a big upset.
Timing 1 question
Chance it goes to a decision
Claude
50%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
55%.
Gemini
62%.
What if 1 question
If it goes to the judges, who wins?
Claude
If it goes to the judges: Anjos 48%, Hernandez 52%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
If it goes to the judges: Anjos 35%, Hernandez 66%.
Gemini
If it goes to the judges: Anjos 31%, Hernandez 69%.
Compared with others 4 questions
Where does this model differ from the others?
Claude
Biggest difference: Hernandez by decision, 26% here against 40% on average for the others.
Other models' answers
Gemini
Biggest difference: Hernandez by decision, 43% here against 31% on average for the others.
How does it compare with analyst picks?
Claude
Of 38 analyst picks, 4 back Anjos and 34 back Hernandez. This model picks Hernandez (62%).
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Of 38 analyst picks, 4 back Anjos and 34 back Hernandez. This model picks Hernandez (66%).
Gemini
Of 38 analyst picks, 4 back Anjos and 34 back Hernandez. This model picks Hernandez (67%).
Which model is most confident on Anjos, and which on Hernandez?
Claude
On Anjos: Claude (38%). On Hernandez: Gemini (67%).
Where do the models disagree most?
Claude
Hernandez by decision: from 26% (Claude) to 43% (Gemini).
How sure 4 questions
When was this forecast made, and by which model version?
Claude
On 27 Sep 2026, by claude-sonnet-5.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
On 27 Sep 2026, by gpt-6-astra.
Gemini
On 29 Sep 2026, by a model version the provider did not report.
What can't the model know?
FightCard
Models research public information before the fight, such as records, styles, recent results and coverage. They cannot see inside training camps, injuries nobody has reported, or what happens on the night. A small chance is not no chance: outcomes the model rates at a few percent still happen, and big favourites lose sometimes.
How is "confidence" worked out?
FightCard
Confidence restates the favourite's win chance on a 10-step scale: the win chance in tens, rounded, so 55% is 6 of 10 and 95% or more is 10 of 10. 1 to 3 reads Low, 4 to 6 Medium and 7 to 10 High. A favourite usually has at least half the chance, so most picks show 5 or more. When the model has the fighters exactly even, there is no pick and no confidence level. It is not a separate judgement by the model.
What counts as a KO, a decision or a draw?
FightCard
KO/TKO includes referee, doctor and corner stoppages, and disqualifications. A decision includes a fight stopped early and scored on the judges' cards. A stoppage between rounds counts as a finish in the round that just ended. A draw and a no contest share one outcome.
After the fight 1 question
Was the actual result in this model's top 3?
Claude
Yes.
claude-sonnet-5 · 27 Sep61 of 101 winner picks correct · 60% hit rate
Gemini
Pick
Hernandez
Confidence 7 of 10 · High
Most likely: Hernandez by decision, about 43 in 100
Win chance: Anjos 33%, Hernandez 67%.
Most likely outcomes
- Hernandez by decision43%
- Hernandez by KO/TKO22%
- Anjos by decision19%
- KO/TKO: Anjos 5%, Hernandez 22%.
- Submission: Anjos 9%, Hernandez 2%.
- Decision: Anjos 19%, Hernandez 43%.
Questions
The result 7 questions
Who wins, and how likely?
Gemini
Hernandez: 67% (about 67 in 100 fights). Anjos: 33%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Hernandez: 66% (about 66 in 100 fights). Anjos: 34%.
Claude
Hernandez: 62% (about 62 in 100 fights). Anjos: 38%.
What is the single most likely outcome?
Gemini
Hernandez by decision: 43% (about 43 in 100).
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Hernandez by decision: 36% (about 36 in 100).
Claude
Hernandez by KO/TKO: 32% (about 32 in 100).
What are the three most likely outcomes, and why?
Gemini
1. Hernandez by decision (43%); 2. Hernandez by KO/TKO (22%); 3. Anjos by decision (19%)
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
1. Hernandez by decision (36%); 2. Hernandez by KO/TKO (29%); 3. Anjos by decision (19%)
Claude
1. Hernandez by KO/TKO (32%); 2. Hernandez by decision (26%); 3. Anjos by decision (24%)
How confident is the model?
Gemini
7 of 10, based on Hernandez's 67% win chance.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
7 of 10, based on Hernandez's 66% win chance.
Claude
6 of 10, based on Hernandez's 62% win chance.
Does it end early or go to the judges?
Gemini
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 38%. Decision: 62%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 45%. Decision: 55%.
Claude
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 50%. Decision: 50%.
How does Anjos win?
Gemini
Anjos wins 33%: KO/TKO 5%, submission 9%, decision 19%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Anjos wins 34%: KO/TKO 5%, submission 10%, decision 19%.
Claude
Anjos wins 38%: KO/TKO 8%, submission 6%, decision 24%.
How does Hernandez win?
Gemini
Hernandez wins 67%: KO/TKO 22%, submission 2%, decision 43%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Hernandez wins 66%: KO/TKO 29%, submission 1%, decision 36%.
Claude
Hernandez wins 62%: KO/TKO 32%, submission 4%, decision 26%.
What if 1 question
What is the upset path?
Gemini
Anjos's most likely upset: Anjos by decision (19%).
Other models' answers
Claude
Anjos's most likely upset: Anjos by decision (24%).
Compared with others 1 question
Do the models agree?
Gemini
The models agree: all 3 pick Hernandez.
After the fight 1 question
What happened vs what the model said?
Gemini
Result: Hernandez by KO/TKO in round 2. Hernandez by KO/TKO was the model's number 2 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Hernandez by decision (43%).
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Result: Hernandez by KO/TKO in round 2. Hernandez by KO/TKO was the model's number 2 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Hernandez by decision (36%).
Claude
Result: Hernandez by KO/TKO in round 2. Hernandez by KO/TKO was the model's most likely outcome.
More questions (19)
The result 7 questions
KO/TKO vs submission vs decision overall
Gemini
KO/TKO 27%, submission 11%, decision 62%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
KO/TKO 34%, submission 11%, decision 55%.
Claude
KO/TKO 40%, submission 10%, decision 50%.
Who is more likely to finish the other?
Gemini
Hernandez: 24%, against 14% for Anjos.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Hernandez: 30%, against 15% for Anjos.
Claude
Hernandez: 36%, against 14% for Anjos.
Can Anjos get the finish? Can Hernandez?
Gemini
Anjos: 14% (KO/TKO 5%, submission 9%). Hernandez: 24% (KO/TKO 22%, submission 2%).
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Anjos: 15% (KO/TKO 5%, submission 10%). Hernandez: 30% (KO/TKO 29%, submission 1%).
Claude
Anjos: 14% (KO/TKO 8%, submission 6%). Hernandez: 36% (KO/TKO 32%, submission 4%).
Who is more likely to be knocked out, and who to be submitted?
Gemini
Anjos is knocked out in 22% and submitted in 2%. Hernandez is knocked out in 5% and submitted in 9%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Anjos is knocked out in 29% and submitted in 1%. Hernandez is knocked out in 5% and submitted in 10%.
Claude
Anjos is knocked out in 32% and submitted in 4%. Hernandez is knocked out in 8% and submitted in 6%.
How lopsided is this fight?
Gemini
Lopsided: 67% vs 33%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Lopsided: 66% vs 34%.
Claude
A clear favourite: 62% vs 38%.
Each fighter's single most likely way to win
Gemini
Anjos by decision: 19%. Hernandez by decision: 43%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Anjos by decision: 19%. Hernandez by decision: 36%.
How big an upset would it be if the underdog wins?
Gemini
Anjos wins 33% (about 1 in 3 fights): a big upset.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Anjos wins 34% (about 1 in 3 fights): a big upset.
Claude
Anjos wins 38% (about 1 in 3 fights): a modest upset.
Timing 1 question
Chance it goes to a decision
Gemini
62%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
55%.
Claude
50%.
What if 1 question
If it goes to the judges, who wins?
Gemini
If it goes to the judges: Anjos 31%, Hernandez 69%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
If it goes to the judges: Anjos 35%, Hernandez 66%.
Claude
If it goes to the judges: Anjos 48%, Hernandez 52%.
Compared with others 5 questions
Where does this model differ from the others?
Gemini
Biggest difference: Hernandez by decision, 43% here against 31% on average for the others.
Other models' answers
Claude
Biggest difference: Hernandez by decision, 26% here against 40% on average for the others.
How does it compare with analyst picks?
Gemini
Of 38 analyst picks, 4 back Anjos and 34 back Hernandez. This model picks Hernandez (67%).
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Of 38 analyst picks, 4 back Anjos and 34 back Hernandez. This model picks Hernandez (66%).
Claude
Of 38 analyst picks, 4 back Anjos and 34 back Hernandez. This model picks Hernandez (62%).
Which model is most confident on Anjos, and which on Hernandez?
Gemini
On Anjos: Claude (38%). On Hernandez: Gemini (67%).
Where do the models disagree most?
Gemini
Hernandez by decision: from 26% (Claude) to 43% (Gemini).
Which analyst agrees most with this model?
Gemini
Chris Cross (Hernandez by decision), James Lynch (Hernandez by decision), Tom Feely (Hernandez by decision), JakeGerberMMA (Hernandez by decision), The Finz Chats (Hernandez by decision), Jimbo Ortega MMA (Hernandez by decision), Fight Productions (Hernandez by decision), Vinny (Hernandez by decision), Matt (Hernandez by decision), Angelo Bodetti (Hernandez by decision), TheWeasle (Hernandez by decision), Bedtime MMA (Hernandez by decision) and FightIQ (Hernandez by decision): the same winner and method as this model, tied; this model favours Hernandez, most likely by decision.
How sure 4 questions
When was this forecast made, and by which model version?
Gemini
On 29 Sep 2026, by a model version the provider did not report.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
On 27 Sep 2026, by gpt-6-astra.
Claude
On 27 Sep 2026, by claude-sonnet-5.
What can't the model know?
FightCard
Models research public information before the fight, such as records, styles, recent results and coverage. They cannot see inside training camps, injuries nobody has reported, or what happens on the night. A small chance is not no chance: outcomes the model rates at a few percent still happen, and big favourites lose sometimes.
How is "confidence" worked out?
FightCard
Confidence restates the favourite's win chance on a 10-step scale: the win chance in tens, rounded, so 55% is 6 of 10 and 95% or more is 10 of 10. 1 to 3 reads Low, 4 to 6 Medium and 7 to 10 High. A favourite usually has at least half the chance, so most picks show 5 or more. When the model has the fighters exactly even, there is no pick and no confidence level. It is not a separate judgement by the model.
What counts as a KO, a decision or a draw?
FightCard
KO/TKO includes referee, doctor and corner stoppages, and disqualifications. A decision includes a fight stopped early and scored on the judges' cards. A stoppage between rounds counts as a finish in the round that just ended. A draw and a no contest share one outcome.
After the fight 1 question
Was the actual result in this model's top 3?
Gemini
Yes.
Version not reported · 29 Sep68 of 108 winner picks correct · 63% hit rate
AI-generated · Not betting advice · 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-MY-RESET
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