Tom Feely is a Sherdog contributor who focuses on previews of UFC numbered cards. He began public MMA analysis in 2013 and joined Sherdog in 2018.
Scorecard
Called 13 of 20 resolved picks — every call traced to its source, no bare percentage. How Track Record works.
- Winner Accuracy 65.0% 13 7
- Method Accuracy 66.7% 8 4
- Round Accuracy 33.3% 2 4
- Underdog AccuracyNo underdog calls with a known pre-fight price
Hit Miss
The running record
Every figure below is cumulative — computed over all resolved calls up to and including each card, never one card on its own. A cumulative rate settles as the denominator grows: read where a line sits alongside its denominator. Winner covers every resolved call; method, round and underdog each have a different and much smaller base, printed beside each one.
Hit Miss
13 of 20 — 65% now, from 58% at their first scored card.
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Method
67% 8 of 12 correct winners that named a method
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Round
33% 2 of 6 correct winners that named a round
The opening point is drawn dashed and hollow: below 5 scored calls this rate is not yet a reliable figure.
Underdog — No underdog calls with a known pre-fight price
Card by card
Newest card first. One mark per resolved call, hits above the line and misses below. Every call is listed in Call History, below.
- UFC 332 6 hit · 2 miss
- Crypto.com UFC 331 7 hit · 5 miss
Call History
Every logged call, grouped by event, scored on Winner, Method, and Round — nothing about a result ever sits behind a click.
underdog pick favourite pick — shown only for picks with a known pre-fight price. The percentage is the chance the market gave the fighter this analyst picked. Open a row for the price’s source and the credit it earned.
UFC 332
Silva vs. Wang
Event scorecard
- Winner Accuracy 75.0% 6 2
- Method Accuracy 60.0% 3 2
- Round Accuracy 66.7% 2 1
- Underdog AccuracyNo underdog calls with a known pre-fight price
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hernandez · Dec | Hernandez · KO/TKO R2 | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
Feely cites Hernandez’s athletic advantage and dos Anjos’s age and injury layoff. He predicts Hernandez can manage the fight over three rounds. | |||||
| McGee · Sub · R1 | Nolan · KO/TKO R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Feely acknowledges Nolan may be the more sensible pick, but sees an early opening for hometown veteran McGee. He makes the sentimental pick for McGee by submission in the first round. | |||||
| Pinas · KO/TKO · R2 | Pinas · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Hit | Miss | |
Feely views Pinas as the stronger, more powerful fighter. He expects Pulyaev to make him work early before Pinas overwhelms him. | |||||
| Rodriguez · Dec | Rodriguez · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
Feely praises Rodriguez’s speed, explosiveness, and varied offense. He sees a close matchup but favors Rodriguez’s athleticism and Coria’s uncertain wrestling defense. | |||||
| Naurdiev · Dec | Naurdiev · Dec R3 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Feely questions Vettori’s current form and favors Naurdiev’s sharper early work. He predicts Naurdiev takes a decision. | |||||
| Parkin · KO/TKO · R2 | Walker · KO/TKO R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Feely expects Parkin to use steady pressure and durability to exploit Walker’s lapses. He predicts Parkin catches him after Walker slips up. | |||||
| Wint · KO/TKO · R1 | Wint · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Hit | Hit | |
Feely describes Wint as a powerful, aggressive heavyweight with wrestling and pro-football athleticism. He sees little evidence that Armand is ready for that pressure. | |||||
| Smith · to win | Smith · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Not called | Hit | |
Feely picks Smith by first-round stoppage. He sees Whitehead’s knockout threat as a danger if Smith becomes overconfident, but expects Smith to prevail. | |||||
Crypto.com UFC 331
Van vs. Pantoja 2
Event scorecard
- Winner Accuracy 58.3% 7 5
- Method Accuracy 71.4% 5 2
- Round Accuracy 0.0% 3
- Underdog AccuracyNo underdog calls with a known pre-fight price
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Favourite call, market price 58.5%. Van · Dec | Van · Dec R5 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Tom Feely expects Van's pace and boxing to prevail if he avoids being stopped, selecting a decision. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 58.5% before the fight, from the pre-event sportsbook consensus frozen before the fight. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 72.8%. Tsarukyan · Sub · R2 | Tsarukyan · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Miss | Miss | |
Tom Feely expects Tsarukyan's wrestling to freeze Ruffy and lead to a second-round submission. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 72.8% before the fight, from the pre-event sportsbook consensus frozen before the fight. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 69.9%. Choi · Dec | Pitbull · KO/TKO R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Tom Feely expects Choi's pace, power, and youth to outlast Freire, selecting a decision. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 69.9% before the fight, from the pre-event sportsbook consensus frozen before the fight. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 70.5%. Baraniewski · KO/TKO · R1 | Menifield · Dec R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Tom Feely expects Baraniewski's reckless approach to produce a first-round knockout. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 70.5% before the fight, from the pre-event sportsbook consensus frozen before the fight. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 91.5%. Steveson · KO/TKO · R1 | Sharaf · KO/TKO R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Tom Feely expects Steveson to overwhelm Sharaf and stop him in the first round. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 91.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 64.5%. Jourdain · Dec | Vera · KO/TKO R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Tom Feely expects Jourdain's higher activity to win a decision over Vera. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 64.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 79.5%. Despaigne · Dec | Despaigne · Dec R3 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Tom Feely expects Despaigne to land the harder strikes in a low-confidence slog, selecting a decision. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 79.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 62.5%. Shahbazyan · Dec | Shahbazyan · Dec R3 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Tom Feely expects Shahbazyan to manage range and win a decision. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 62.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 78.5%. Brito · KO/TKO · R2 | Brito · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Hit | Miss | |
Tom Feely expects Brito's pressure to eventually break through and produce a second-round knockout. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 78.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 67.5%. O'Neill · Dec | O'Neill · Sub R1 | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
Tom Feely expects O'Neill's recent improvements to carry her to a decision. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 67.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 81.5%. Gandra · KO/TKO · R2 | Gandra · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Hit | Miss | |
Tom Feely expects Gandra's power to continue producing a second-round knockout. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 81.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 61.5%. Yoo · Dec | Aswell Jr. · Dec R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Tom Feely expects Yoo's harder offense to win a decision despite Aswell's resistance. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 61.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
Videos
No sourced clips are linked to this analyst's calls yet.