UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev  24 Oct 2026 · Etihad Arena, Abu Dhabi, AE

Colby Thicknesse defeats Asaf Chopurov by split decision

Win Colby Thicknesse 10-1-0
Loss Asaf Chopurov 11-1-0
Split decision

Round 3 · 5:00

Thicknesse vs Chopurov — Bantamweight · UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev

Predictions summary

What happened

The result, the defining moments, and what the verdict means.

Chopurov started well and appeared to hurt Thicknesse along the fence, but Thicknesse held on and found his own success, especially in the clinch.

They traded the advantage across all three rounds, with Thicknesse's conditioning standing up. Two judges scored it 29-28 for Thicknesse and one 29-28 for Chopurov.

Pre-fight analysis — how we saw it going in

Case for Thicknesse

UFC lists Thicknesse at 9-1, with two knockout wins and two submissions. His UFC profile also records three Octagon bouts, giving him documented experience across the distance against an opponent making his listed UFC debut.

Case for Chopurov

Chopurov's UFC profile lists no UFC result or performance totals, leaving his first Octagon performance as the central unknown. If he can take initiative early and prevent Thicknesse from settling into a measured three-round rhythm, he can make this debut a difficult read.

What We Were Watching For

  • Whether Thicknesse can turn his documented UFC experience into control of the early exchanges.
  • How Chopurov approaches his first UFC round when the opening range is established.
  • Whether either fighter can create a clear advantage in the first grappling transitions.
Records & career stats
Thicknesse vs Chopurov
9-1-0
Record
11-0-0
—
Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
—
Australia
Nationality
Russia
27
Age
24
5′7″170 cm
Height
Not published
69″175 cm
Reach
Not published
—
StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
—
40%
Finish rateFinish % — Chopurov leadsFinish rateThe share of a fighter’s wins that ended inside the distance — by KO/TKO or submission — rather than going to the judges’ scorecards. Higher means more finishes.
91%
2
Wins by KO/TKOKO wins — Chopurov leads
5
2
Wins by submissionSub wins — Chopurov leads
5
3.24
Sig. strikes landed / minStr / minSignificant strikes landed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter lands for every minute of fight time — a read on striking output and pace. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
Not published
2.93
Sig. strikes absorbed / minAbs / minSignificant strikes absorbed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter takes for every minute of fight time. Lower is better — it means they get hit less often. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
—
54%
Striking defenseStrike def.Striking defenseThe percentage of opponents’ significant strikes that do not land — strikes slipped, blocked or evaded. Higher is better. Not the same as striking accuracy, which counts your own strikes that land. From UFC/FightMetric.
—
33%
Takedown defenseTD def.Takedown defenseThe percentage of opponents’ takedown attempts that are stuffed. Higher means harder to put on the mat. From UFC/FightMetric.
—
15:00
Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
—
Freestyle MMA
Team
Team Chingiz Allazov

Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Record is as of fight night; career stats, recent form and win totals are the latest on file and may include this fight. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.

Comments

Comments are currently closed while we finish moderation and privacy controls.

Who Called It?

How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.

UFC Predict — Logistic Core
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Colby Thicknesse

Fight result: Colby Thicknesse · Decision

UFC Predict — Logistic Core explicitly selects Colby Thicknesse for this matchup; no method or round is stated. Recorded from the 2026-10-21 page snapshot because no per-pick publication time is shown.

Track record: winner called in 10 of 14 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 71.4% (10 hit, 4 miss, across 14 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 50.0% (3 hit, 3 miss, across 6 underdog calls on 14 resolved calls).

View full track record (14 calls)
Bedtime MMA
Hear it — 10:13 Bedtime MMA on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Colby Thicknesse · Dec

Fight result: Colby Thicknesse · Decision

Bedtime MMA picks Colby Thicknesse by decision.

“picking Colby thickness by decision.”

Track record: winner called in 132 of 185 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 71.4% (132 hit, 53 miss, across 185 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 61.9% (60 hit, 37 miss, across 97 method-scored calls on 185 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 40.7% (11 hit, 16 miss, across 27 round-scored calls on 185 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 48.7% (19 hit, 20 miss, across 39 underdog calls on 185 resolved calls).

View full track record (185 calls)
Lucas Tracy
Hear it — 4:42 Gemini YouTube analysisLucas Tracy on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Colby Thicknesse

Fight result: Colby Thicknesse · Decision

“i'm picking kobe thickness”

Track record: winner called in 44 of 65 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 67.7% (44 hit, 21 miss, across 65 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 62.5% (10 hit, 6 miss, across 16 method-scored calls on 65 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 50.0% (3 hit, 3 miss, across 6 round-scored calls on 65 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 38.9% (7 hit, 11 miss, across 18 underdog calls on 65 resolved calls).

View full track record (65 calls)
Fite Feed
Hear it — 11:08 Fite Feed on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Colby Thicknesse · Dec

Fight result: Colby Thicknesse · Decision

Fite Feed picks Colby Thicknesse by Decision.

“I'm going to go with Colby Thicknees by decision.”

Track record: winner called in 24 of 37 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 64.9% (24 hit, 13 miss, across 37 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 60.9% (14 hit, 9 miss, across 23 method-scored calls on 37 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 21.4% (3 hit, 11 miss, across 14 round-scored calls on 37 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 40.0% (2 hit, 3 miss, across 5 underdog calls on 37 resolved calls).

View full track record (37 calls)
UFC Predict — CatBoost
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Colby Thicknesse

Fight result: Colby Thicknesse · Decision

UFC Predict — CatBoost explicitly selects Colby Thicknesse for this matchup; no method or round is stated. Recorded from the 2026-10-21 page snapshot because no per-pick publication time is shown.

Track record: winner called in 9 of 14 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 64.3% (9 hit, 5 miss, across 14 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 42.9% (3 hit, 4 miss, across 7 underdog calls on 14 resolved calls).

View full track record (14 calls)
UFC Predict — Ensemble
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Colby Thicknesse

Fight result: Colby Thicknesse · Decision

UFC Predict — Ensemble explicitly selects Colby Thicknesse for this matchup; no method or round is stated. Recorded from the 2026-10-21 page snapshot because no per-pick publication time is shown.

Track record: winner called in 8 of 14 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 57.1% (8 hit, 6 miss, across 14 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 37.5% (3 hit, 5 miss, across 8 underdog calls on 14 resolved calls).

View full track record (14 calls)
UFC Predict — LightGBM
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Colby Thicknesse

Fight result: Colby Thicknesse · Decision

UFC Predict — LightGBM explicitly selects Colby Thicknesse for this matchup; no method or round is stated. Recorded from the 2026-10-21 page snapshot because no per-pick publication time is shown.

Track record: winner called in 8 of 14 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 57.1% (8 hit, 6 miss, across 14 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (2 hit, 4 miss, across 6 underdog calls on 14 resolved calls).

View full track record (14 calls)
UFC Predict — XGBoost
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Colby Thicknesse

Fight result: Colby Thicknesse · Decision

UFC Predict — XGBoost explicitly selects Colby Thicknesse for this matchup; no method or round is stated. Recorded from the 2026-10-21 page snapshot because no per-pick publication time is shown.

Track record: winner called in 8 of 14 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 57.1% (8 hit, 6 miss, across 14 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (2 hit, 4 miss, across 6 underdog calls on 14 resolved calls).

View full track record (14 calls)
MMA.SOCIAL
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Colby Thicknesse · Dec

Fight result: Colby Thicknesse · Decision

MMA.SOCIAL's UFC forecast selects Colby Thicknesse by decision; no round is stated.

Track record: winner called in 15 of 27 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 55.6% (15 hit, 12 miss, across 27 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 46.7% (7 hit, 8 miss, across 15 method-scored calls on 27 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 37.5% (3 hit, 5 miss, across 8 underdog calls on 27 resolved calls).

View full track record (27 calls)
The Lab Analytics
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Colby Thicknesse

Fight result: Colby Thicknesse · Decision

The Lab Analytics' explicit model pick selects Colby Thicknesse (65% model probability; MED confidence, LEAN tier). The page publishes no method or round. Recorded from the 2026-10-21 observed page snapshot; no per-pick publication time is shown.

Track record: winner called in 10 of 25 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 40.0% (10 hit, 15 miss, across 25 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 20.0% (2 hit, 8 miss, across 10 underdog calls on 25 resolved calls).

View full track record (25 calls)
FightIQ
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Asaf Chopurov

Fight result: Colby Thicknesse · Decision

FightIQ's snapshot explicitly predicts Asaf Chopurov at site-displayed confidence of 80%; no tier label displayed.

“We predict Asaf Chopurov — 80% confident”

Track record: winner called in 159 of 227 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 70.0% (159 hit, 68 miss, across 227 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 39.9% (59 hit, 89 miss, across 148 method-scored calls on 227 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 55.0% (11 hit, 9 miss, across 20 underdog calls on 227 resolved calls).

View full track record (227 calls)
Jimbo Ortega MMA
Hear it — 12:05 Jimbo Ortega MMA on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Asaf Chopurov · KO/TKO

Fight result: Colby Thicknesse · Decision

Jimbo Ortega MMA picks Asaf Chopurov by KO/TKO.

“But I'm going to pick Chopper by finish.”

Track record: winner called in 38 of 56 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 67.9% (38 hit, 18 miss, across 56 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 62.1% (18 hit, 11 miss, across 29 method-scored calls on 56 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 50.0% (1 hit, 1 miss, across 2 round-scored calls on 56 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 50.0% (4 hit, 4 miss, across 8 underdog calls on 56 resolved calls).

View full track record (56 calls)
Tom Feely
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Asaf Chopurov · Sub · Round 1

Fight result: Colby Thicknesse · Decision

Sherdog prelims preview by Tom Feely names Chopurov as the pick, by first-round submission.

“The pick is Chopurov by first-round submission.”

Track record: winner called in 23 of 34 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 67.6% (23 hit, 11 miss, across 34 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 66.7% (14 hit, 7 miss, across 21 method-scored calls on 34 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 50.0% (5 hit, 5 miss, across 10 round-scored calls on 34 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (1 hit, 2 miss, across 3 underdog calls on 34 resolved calls).

View full track record (34 calls)
MMA Lock of the Night
Open video source Gemini YouTube analysisMMA Lock of the Night on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Asaf Chopurov

Fight result: Colby Thicknesse · Decision

No reasoning or quote is available for this pick.

Track record: winner called in 85 of 126 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 67.5% (85 hit, 41 miss, across 126 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 59.5% (25 hit, 17 miss, across 42 method-scored calls on 126 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 55.6% (5 hit, 4 miss, across 9 round-scored calls on 126 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 36.8% (7 hit, 12 miss, across 19 underdog calls on 126 resolved calls).

View full track record (126 calls)
AJ Devito
Hear it — 30:08 AJ Devito on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Asaf Chopurov

Fight result: Colby Thicknesse · Decision

AJ Devito picks Asaf Chopurov.

“a mismatch of the century, bro.”

Track record: winner called in 175 of 264 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 66.3% (175 hit, 89 miss, across 264 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 58.7% (61 hit, 43 miss, across 104 method-scored calls on 264 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 77.8% (7 hit, 2 miss, across 9 round-scored calls on 264 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 36.4% (12 hit, 21 miss, across 33 underdog calls on 264 resolved calls).

View full track record (264 calls)
The MMA Guru
Hear it — 13:51 The MMA Guru on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Asaf Chopurov

Fight result: Colby Thicknesse · Decision

Selects Asaf Chopurov to win.

* Acknowledges possible personal bias and says he is rooting for Thicknesse while selecting Chopurov.

Track record: winner called in 213 of 322 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 66.1% (213 hit, 109 miss, across 322 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 53.4% (62 hit, 54 miss, across 116 method-scored calls on 322 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 35.9% (14 hit, 25 miss, across 39 round-scored calls on 322 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 47.4% (18 hit, 20 miss, across 38 underdog calls on 322 resolved calls).

View full track record (322 calls)
JakeGerberMMA
Hear it — 22:13 JakeGerberMMA on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Asaf Chopurov

Fight result: Colby Thicknesse · Decision

JakeGerberMMA picks Asaf Chopurov.

“don't see it. I'm going Asap Chophob to”

Track record: winner called in 101 of 154 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 65.6% (101 hit, 53 miss, across 154 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 60.0% (39 hit, 26 miss, across 65 method-scored calls on 154 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 35.7% (5 hit, 9 miss, across 14 round-scored calls on 154 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (4 hit, 8 miss, across 12 underdog calls on 154 resolved calls).

View full track record (154 calls)
DFS By The Numbers
Hear it — 10:30 DFS By The Numbers on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Asaf Chopurov · Sub · Round 2

Fight result: Colby Thicknesse · Decision

DFS By The Numbers picks Asaf Chopurov by Submission in round 2.

“So give me Chopurov to win this fight, I'll take him to win this fight by second round submission.”

Track record: winner called in 112 of 173 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 64.7% (112 hit, 61 miss, across 173 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 61.0% (61 hit, 39 miss, across 100 method-scored calls on 173 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 38.3% (18 hit, 29 miss, across 47 round-scored calls on 173 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 36.4% (8 hit, 14 miss, across 22 underdog calls on 173 resolved calls).

View full track record (173 calls)
UFC Predict — Main + Market
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Asaf Chopurov

Fight result: Colby Thicknesse · Decision

UFC Predict — Main + Market explicitly selects Asaf Chopurov for this matchup; no method or round is stated. Recorded from the 2026-10-21 page snapshot because no per-pick publication time is shown.

Track record: winner called in 9 of 14 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 64.3% (9 hit, 5 miss, across 14 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 2 miss, across 2 underdog calls on 14 resolved calls).

View full track record (14 calls)
138 MMA
Hear it — 9:40 138 MMA on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Asaf Chopurov

Fight result: Colby Thicknesse · Decision

138 MMA picks Asaf Chopurov, describing this as a difficult matchup for Thicknesse.

Track record: winner called in 42 of 66 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 63.6% (42 hit, 24 miss, across 66 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 33.3% (1 hit, 2 miss, across 3 method-scored calls on 66 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 43.8% (7 hit, 9 miss, across 16 underdog calls on 66 resolved calls).

View full track record (66 calls)
Mate Bersenadze
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Asaf Chopurov · Dec

Fight result: Colby Thicknesse · Decision

Selects Asaf Chopurov to win.

Track record: winner called in 33 of 52 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 63.5% (33 hit, 19 miss, across 52 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 51.5% (17 hit, 16 miss, across 33 method-scored calls on 52 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 100.0% (1 hit, 0 miss, across 1 round-scored calls on 52 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (2 hit, 4 miss, across 6 underdog calls on 52 resolved calls).

View full track record (52 calls)
Livid Larry MMA
Hear it — 14:01 Livid Larry MMA on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Asaf Chopurov · KO/TKO

Fight result: Colby Thicknesse · Decision

Livid Larry MMA picks Asaf Chopurov by KO/TKO. TKO most likely

“to go with Choarov as the pick. TKO most”

Track record: winner called in 34 of 54 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 63.0% (34 hit, 20 miss, across 54 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 79.2% (19 hit, 5 miss, across 24 method-scored calls on 54 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 75.0% (3 hit, 1 miss, across 4 round-scored calls on 54 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 38.5% (5 hit, 8 miss, across 13 underdog calls on 54 resolved calls).

View full track record (54 calls)
Next Fight model
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Asaf Chopurov

Fight result: Colby Thicknesse · Decision

Next Fight explicitly selects Asaf Chopurov; the source does not state a method or round.

Track record: winner called in 5 of 8 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 62.5% (5 hit, 3 miss, across 8 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 1 miss, across 1 underdog calls on 8 resolved calls).

View full track record (8 calls)
HopperMMA
Open video source Gemini YouTube analysisHopperMMA on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Asaf Chopurov · Round 2

Fight result: Colby Thicknesse · Decision

No reasoning or quote is available for this pick.

Track record: winner called in 92 of 148 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 62.2% (92 hit, 56 miss, across 148 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 60.8% (45 hit, 29 miss, across 74 method-scored calls on 148 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 48.8% (20 hit, 21 miss, across 41 round-scored calls on 148 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 26.9% (7 hit, 19 miss, across 26 underdog calls on 148 resolved calls).

View full track record (148 calls)
James Blissett
Hear it — 61:10 James Blissett on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Asaf Chopurov · KO/TKO

Fight result: Colby Thicknesse · Decision

Expects the undefeated Chopurov to beat Thicknesse and probably finish him, while allowing for a decision.

“my prediction will be Askhab Chupilov to win this fight via knockout”

Track record: winner called in 48 of 79 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 60.8% (48 hit, 31 miss, across 79 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 54.2% (26 hit, 22 miss, across 48 method-scored calls on 79 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 50.0% (3 hit, 3 miss, across 6 round-scored calls on 79 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 41.2% (7 hit, 10 miss, across 17 underdog calls on 79 resolved calls).

View full track record (79 calls)
Fight Genie (Claude)
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Asaf Chopurov · Dec

Fight result: Colby Thicknesse · Decision

Fight Genie Claude explicitly selects f_58512a for Thicknesse–Chopurov on the live UFC 333 card. The page exposes no original publication or lock time; 2026-10-21 is the observed snapshot date only.

Track record: winner called in 16 of 27 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 59.3% (16 hit, 11 miss, across 27 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 50.0% (8 hit, 8 miss, across 16 method-scored calls on 27 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 40.0% (2 hit, 3 miss, across 5 round-scored calls on 27 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 25.0% (1 hit, 3 miss, across 4 underdog calls on 27 resolved calls).

View full track record (27 calls)
The Oracle (Blueprint MMA)
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Asaf Chopurov

Fight result: Colby Thicknesse · Decision

The Oracle selects Asaf Chopurov with a 70% win probability.

Track record: winner called in 16 of 27 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 59.3% (16 hit, 11 miss, across 27 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 25.0% (1 hit, 3 miss, across 4 underdog calls on 27 resolved calls).

View full track record (27 calls)
KingofCrackdown5095
Hear it — 9:05 KingofCrackdown5095 on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Asaf Chopurov · Dec

Fight result: Colby Thicknesse · Decision

KingofCrackdown5095 picks Asaf Chopurov by Decision. low confidence

“Choparov to beat Kobo Fitness.”

Track record: winner called in 37 of 63 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 58.7% (37 hit, 26 miss, across 63 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 65.6% (21 hit, 11 miss, across 32 method-scored calls on 63 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 42.1% (8 hit, 11 miss, across 19 round-scored calls on 63 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 42.9% (3 hit, 4 miss, across 7 underdog calls on 63 resolved calls).

View full track record (63 calls)
Kunath
Open video source Gemini YouTube analysisKunath on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Asaf Chopurov

Fight result: Colby Thicknesse · Decision

No reasoning or quote is available for this pick.

Track record: winner called in 38 of 65 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 58.5% (38 hit, 27 miss, across 65 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 56.7% (17 hit, 13 miss, across 30 method-scored calls on 65 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 40.0% (2 hit, 3 miss, across 5 round-scored calls on 65 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 25.0% (3 hit, 9 miss, across 12 underdog calls on 65 resolved calls).

View full track record (65 calls)
Artem MMA
Open video source Gemini YouTube analysisArtem MMA on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Asaf Chopurov

Fight result: Colby Thicknesse · Decision

No reasoning or quote is available for this pick.

Track record: winner called in 55 of 95 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 57.9% (55 hit, 40 miss, across 95 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 63.8% (30 hit, 17 miss, across 47 method-scored calls on 95 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 60.0% (6 hit, 4 miss, across 10 round-scored calls on 95 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 23.5% (4 hit, 13 miss, across 17 underdog calls on 95 resolved calls).

View full track record (95 calls)
Mike Finch
Open video source Gemini YouTube analysisMike Finch on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Asaf Chopurov · KO/TKO

Fight result: Colby Thicknesse · Decision

No reasoning or quote is available for this pick.

Track record: winner called in 31 of 54 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 57.4% (31 hit, 23 miss, across 54 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 68.2% (15 hit, 7 miss, across 22 method-scored calls on 54 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 2 miss, across 2 round-scored calls on 54 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 30.8% (4 hit, 9 miss, across 13 underdog calls on 54 resolved calls).

View full track record (54 calls)
MMA Intel
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Asaf Chopurov

Fight result: Colby Thicknesse · Decision

MMA Intel explicitly selects Asaf Chopurov; the source does not state a method or round.

Track record: winner called in 8 of 14 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 57.1% (8 hit, 6 miss, across 14 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 20.0% (1 hit, 4 miss, across 5 underdog calls on 14 resolved calls).

View full track record (14 calls)
Jon Litterine
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Asaf Chopurov

Fight result: Colby Thicknesse · Decision

Jon Litterine explicitly selects Asaf Chopurov; no method or round is stated.

Track record: winner called in 70 of 124 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 56.5% (70 hit, 54 miss, across 124 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 28.0% (7 hit, 18 miss, across 25 underdog calls on 124 resolved calls).

View full track record (124 calls)
Fight Productions
Hear it — 15:16 Fight Productions on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Asaf Chopurov · KO/TKO · Round 1

Fight result: Colby Thicknesse · Decision

Fight Productions selects Asaf Chopurov by round-1 knockout.

“I'm going to take ChoRov to win this one by round one knockout.”

Track record: winner called in 37 of 66 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 56.1% (37 hit, 29 miss, across 66 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 75.7% (28 hit, 9 miss, across 37 method-scored calls on 66 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 41.7% (10 hit, 14 miss, across 24 round-scored calls on 66 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 25.0% (2 hit, 6 miss, across 8 underdog calls on 66 resolved calls).

View full track record (66 calls)
Fight Genie (GPT)
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Asaf Chopurov · Dec

Fight result: Colby Thicknesse · Decision

Fight Genie GPT explicitly selects f_58512a for Thicknesse–Chopurov on the live UFC 333 card. The page exposes no original publication or lock time; 2026-10-21 is the observed snapshot date only.

Track record: winner called in 15 of 27 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 55.6% (15 hit, 12 miss, across 27 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 53.3% (8 hit, 7 miss, across 15 method-scored calls on 27 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 16.7% (1 hit, 5 miss, across 6 round-scored calls on 27 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 20.0% (1 hit, 4 miss, across 5 underdog calls on 27 resolved calls).

View full track record (27 calls)
Kasper MMA
Hear it — 4:10 Gemini YouTube analysisKasper MMA on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Asaf Chopurov · Sub

Fight result: Colby Thicknesse · Decision

“so I'm picking Chopper to win by submission”

Track record: winner called in 23 of 42 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 54.8% (23 hit, 19 miss, across 42 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 61.1% (11 hit, 7 miss, across 18 method-scored calls on 42 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 20.0% (1 hit, 4 miss, across 5 underdog calls on 42 resolved calls).

View full track record (42 calls)
Chris Schweppe
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Asaf Chopurov · Dec

Fight result: Colby Thicknesse · Decision

Schweppe explicitly selects Asaf Chopurov by decision.

“Chris’ Pick: Chopurov by decision.”

Track record: winner called in 53 of 99 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 53.5% (53 hit, 46 miss, across 99 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 47.2% (25 hit, 28 miss, across 53 method-scored calls on 99 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 33.3% (10 hit, 20 miss, across 30 round-scored calls on 99 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (10 hit, 20 miss, across 30 underdog calls on 99 resolved calls).

View full track record (99 calls)
Aniki MMA
Hear it — 13:40 Gemini YouTube analysisAniki MMA on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Asaf Chopurov · KO/TKO · Round 1

Fight result: Colby Thicknesse · Decision

“so yeah Assaf Chopper by first round KO or TKO”

Track record: winner called in 16 of 30 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 53.3% (16 hit, 14 miss, across 30 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 71.4% (10 hit, 4 miss, across 14 method-scored calls on 30 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 66.7% (6 hit, 3 miss, across 9 round-scored calls on 30 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 6 miss, across 6 underdog calls on 30 resolved calls).

View full track record (30 calls)
Half The Battle
Open video source Gemini YouTube analysisHalf The Battle on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Asaf Chopurov

Fight result: Colby Thicknesse · Decision

No reasoning or quote is available for this pick.

Track record: winner called in 58 of 109 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 53.2% (58 hit, 51 miss, across 109 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 71.4% (10 hit, 4 miss, across 14 method-scored calls on 109 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 66.7% (2 hit, 1 miss, across 3 round-scored calls on 109 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 21.4% (6 hit, 22 miss, across 28 underdog calls on 109 resolved calls).

View full track record (109 calls)
TonyHasDiedMMA
Open video source Gemini YouTube analysisTonyHasDiedMMA on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Asaf Chopurov

Fight result: Colby Thicknesse · Decision

No reasoning or quote is available for this pick.

Track record: winner called in 28 of 53 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 52.8% (28 hit, 25 miss, across 53 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 47.1% (8 hit, 9 miss, across 17 method-scored calls on 53 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 71.4% (5 hit, 2 miss, across 7 round-scored calls on 53 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 20.0% (2 hit, 8 miss, across 10 underdog calls on 53 resolved calls).

View full track record (53 calls)
Voice of MMA
Open video source Gemini YouTube analysisVoice of MMA on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Asaf Chopurov · Dec

Fight result: Colby Thicknesse · Decision

No reasoning or quote is available for this pick.

Track record: winner called in 11 of 21 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 52.4% (11 hit, 10 miss, across 21 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 20.0% (1 hit, 4 miss, across 5 underdog calls on 21 resolved calls).

View full track record (21 calls)
Steve Garcia
Open video source Gemini YouTube analysisSteve Garcia on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Asaf Chopurov

Fight result: Colby Thicknesse · Decision

No reasoning or quote is available for this pick.

Track record: winner called in 15 of 29 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 51.7% (15 hit, 14 miss, across 29 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 100.0% (1 hit, 0 miss, across 1 method-scored calls on 29 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 25.0% (1 hit, 3 miss, across 4 underdog calls on 29 resolved calls).

View full track record (29 calls)
Andy Lang
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Asaf Chopurov

Fight result: Colby Thicknesse · Decision

Selects Asaf Chopurov to win.

Track record: winner called in 18 of 35 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 51.4% (18 hit, 17 miss, across 35 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 30.8% (4 hit, 9 miss, across 13 underdog calls on 35 resolved calls).

View full track record (35 calls)
Greedo Plays MMA
Hear it — 24:55 Greedo Plays MMA on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Asaf Chopurov · KO/TKO · Round 1

Fight result: Colby Thicknesse · Decision

Greedo picks Asaf Chopurov by first-round knockout, favoring his striking power and speed.

Track record: winner called in 37 of 72 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 51.4% (37 hit, 35 miss, across 72 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 63.3% (19 hit, 11 miss, across 30 method-scored calls on 72 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 57.1% (8 hit, 6 miss, across 14 round-scored calls on 72 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 23.1% (3 hit, 10 miss, across 13 underdog calls on 72 resolved calls).

View full track record (72 calls)
Brandon K
Open video source Gemini YouTube analysisBrandon K on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Asaf Chopurov · Dec

Fight result: Colby Thicknesse · Decision

No reasoning or quote is available for this pick.

Track record: winner called in 20 of 45 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 44.4% (20 hit, 25 miss, across 45 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 42.9% (6 hit, 8 miss, across 14 method-scored calls on 45 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 5 miss, across 5 round-scored calls on 45 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 25.0% (3 hit, 9 miss, across 12 underdog calls on 45 resolved calls).

View full track record (45 calls)
FIGHT//AI
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Asaf Chopurov

Fight result: Colby Thicknesse · Decision

FIGHT//AI's UFC 333 predictions page lists Asaf Chopurov over Colby Thicknesse (65% site-displayed confidence); observed 2026-10-17 as the snapshot date, not an asserted original publication or lock date; no method or round is stated.

Track record: winner called in 49 of 153 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 32.0% (49 hit, 104 miss, across 153 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 50.0% (1 hit, 1 miss, across 2 method-scored calls on 153 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 20.0% (20 hit, 80 miss, across 100 underdog calls on 153 resolved calls).

View full track record (153 calls)

Analyst picks: UFC Predict — Logistic Core Hit; Bedtime MMA Hit; FightIQ Miss; Jimbo Ortega MMA Miss; Lucas Tracy Hit; Tom Feely Miss; MMA Lock of the Night Miss; AJ Devito Miss; The MMA Guru Miss; JakeGerberMMA Miss; Fite Feed Hit; DFS By The Numbers Miss; UFC Predict — CatBoost Hit; UFC Predict — Main + Market Miss; 138 MMA Miss; Mate Bersenadze Miss; Livid Larry MMA Miss; Next Fight model Miss; HopperMMA Miss; James Blissett Miss; Fight Genie (Claude) Miss; The Oracle (Blueprint MMA) Miss; KingofCrackdown5095 Miss; Kunath Miss; Artem MMA Miss; Mike Finch Miss; MMA Intel Miss; UFC Predict — Ensemble Hit; UFC Predict — LightGBM Hit; UFC Predict — XGBoost Hit; Jon Litterine Miss; Fight Productions Miss; Fight Genie (GPT) Miss; MMA.SOCIAL Hit; Kasper MMA Miss; Chris Schweppe Miss; Aniki MMA Miss; Half The Battle Miss; TonyHasDiedMMA Miss; Voice of MMA Miss; Steve Garcia Miss; Andy Lang Miss; Greedo Plays MMA Miss; Brandon K Miss; The Lab Analytics Hit; FIGHT//AI Miss.

Only 10 of 46 called the upset.

Chart: selected analyst picks, not a win probability. Pill badge: Winner hit rate (total scored picks before this event).

The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.

Results

Each agent’s latest pre-fight call vs result; forecast dates may differ. Market: sportsbook snapshot or historic market reconstruction.

Actual Thicknesse · Decision · R3

Closest probability Claude put 35% on Thicknesse.

ChatGPTForecast: 63 of 108 winner picks correct · 58% hit rate
20% Thicknesse
79% Chopurov
PickChopurov · Submission · R1ActualThicknesse · Decision · R3
WinnerMissMethodNot applicable — the winner call missedRoundNot applicable — the winner call missedSportsbook favouriteSportsbook favourite: FavouriteThe selected fighter had the higher market-implied chance of winning.Sportsbook favourite: favourite call
ClaudeForecast: 61 of 101 winner picks correct · 60% hit rate
35% Thicknesse
64% Chopurov
PickChopurov · KO/TKO · R1ActualThicknesse · Decision · R3
WinnerMissMethodNot applicable — the winner call missedRoundNot applicable — the winner call missedSportsbook favouriteSportsbook favourite: FavouriteThe selected fighter had the higher market-implied chance of winning.Sportsbook favourite: favourite call
GeminiForecast: 68 of 108 winner picks correct · 63% hit rate
18% Thicknesse
81% Chopurov
PickChopurov · DecisionActualThicknesse · Decision · R3
WinnerMissMethodNot applicable — the winner call missedRoundNot applicable — the winner call missedSportsbook favouriteSportsbook favourite: FavouriteThe selected fighter had the higher market-implied chance of winning.Sportsbook favourite: favourite call
AI Predictions — latest pre-fight callsFrozen final publication identity; the calls below retain each agent’s own publication.

AI Predictions

Each agent’s latest pre-fight forecast. Dates are shown per agent.

  • ChatGPT

    63 of 108 winner picks correct · 58% hit rate

    Pick Chopurov

    Most likely: Chopurov by submission, about 32 in 100

    Win chance: Thicknesse 20%, Chopurov 79%, draw or no contest 1%.

    gpt-6-astra · 23 Oct

    Confidence 8 of 10 · High

  • Claude

    61 of 101 winner picks correct · 60% hit rate

    Pick Chopurov

    Most likely: Chopurov by KO/TKO, about 38 in 100

    Win chance: Thicknesse 35%, Chopurov 64%, draw or no contest 2%.

    claude-sonnet-5-5 · 23 Oct

    Confidence 6 of 10 · Medium

  • Gemini

    68 of 108 winner picks correct · 63% hit rate

    Pick Chopurov

    Most likely: Chopurov by decision, about 33 in 100

    Win chance: Thicknesse 18%, Chopurov 81%, draw or no contest 2%.

    Version not reported · 23 Oct

    Confidence 8 of 10 · High

3 of 3 models pick Chopurov.

Questions

The result 8 questions

Who wins, and how likely?

  • ChatGPT

    Chopurov: 79% (about 79 in 100 fights). Thicknesse: 20%. Draw or no contest: 1%.

  • Claude

    Chopurov: 64% (about 64 in 100 fights). Thicknesse: 35%. Draw or no contest: 2%.

  • Gemini

    Chopurov: 81% (about 81 in 100 fights). Thicknesse: 18%. Draw or no contest: 2%.

What is the single most likely outcome?

  • ChatGPT

    Chopurov by submission: 32% (about 32 in 100).

  • Claude

    Chopurov by KO/TKO: 38% (about 38 in 100).

  • Gemini

    Chopurov by decision: 33% (about 33 in 100).

What are the three most likely outcomes, and why?

  • ChatGPT

    1. Chopurov by submission (32%); 2. Chopurov by KO/TKO (25%); 3. Chopurov by decision (22%)

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard
    • Chopurov by submission: I expect Chopurov's takedowns and positional pressure to create back-taking opportunities as Thicknesse tries to stand. A choke is his clearest finishing route.
    • Chopurov by KO/TKO: Chopurov's heavier offense could hurt Thicknesse during entries or produce a stoppage through ground strikes if defensive scrambles become exhausting.
    • Chopurov by decision: Thicknesse's defensive grappling and resilience could deny a finish while still leaving Chopurov ahead through control and more damaging exchanges.

  • Claude

    1. Chopurov by KO/TKO (38%); 2. Thicknesse by decision (18%); 2. Chopurov by decision (18%)

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard
    • Chopurov by KO/TKO: Chopurov has finished most of his wins, including a first-round KO, and has more power than Thicknesse can safely absorb.
    • Chopurov by decision: Thicknesse is durable and experienced enough to last, with Chopurov winning on cleaner striking.
    • Thicknesse by decision: Thicknesse could grind out rounds if Chopurov struggles with the UFC step up.

  • Gemini

    1. Chopurov by decision (33%); 2. Chopurov by KO/TKO (25%); 3. Chopurov by submission (23%)

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard
    • Chopurov by decision: Chopurov brings relentless forward pressure and superior sambo grappling against an opponent who has struggled to defend takedowns. Thicknesse has proven durability across full three-round bouts, making a distance win very likely.
    • Chopurov by KO/TKO: Chopurov possesses explosive knockout power and heavy ground strikes that have stopped top regional veterans early. His aggressive entries can exploit defensive openings when Thicknesse lunges in striking exchanges.
    • Chopurov by submission: Chopurov is an opportunistic finisher on the mat with multiple rear-naked choke victories in championship competition. His chain wrestling should create frequent back-exposure opportunities during scrambles.
How confident is the model?

  • ChatGPT

    8 of 10, based on Chopurov's 79% win chance.

  • Claude

    6 of 10, based on Chopurov's 64% win chance.

  • Gemini

    8 of 10, based on Chopurov's 81% win chance.

Does it end early or go to the judges?

  • ChatGPT

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 63%. Decision: 36%. Draw or no contest: 1%.

  • Claude

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 62%. Decision: 37%. Draw or no contest: 2%.

  • Gemini

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 54%. Decision: 45%. Draw or no contest: 2%.

How does Thicknesse win?

  • ChatGPT

    Thicknesse wins 20%: KO/TKO 2%, submission 4%, decision 14%.

  • Claude

    Thicknesse wins 35%: KO/TKO 12%, submission 5%, decision 18%.

  • Gemini

    Thicknesse wins 18%: KO/TKO 4%, submission 3%, decision 12%.

How does Chopurov win?

  • ChatGPT

    Chopurov wins 79%: KO/TKO 25%, submission 32%, decision 22%.

  • Claude

    Chopurov wins 64%: KO/TKO 38%, submission 8%, decision 18%.

  • Gemini

    Chopurov wins 81%: KO/TKO 25%, submission 23%, decision 33%.

The fight in one sentence

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Chopurov should impose the stronger wrestling and heavier offense, with a submission the likeliest finish if Thicknesse cannot escape bottom position.

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Chopurov, an undefeated finisher making his debut, likely pressures and wins by stoppage or decision against the tougher-tested but limited Thicknesse.

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Asaf Chopurov should use his relentless forward pressure, superior sambo grappling, and heavy top control to wear down Colby Thicknesse for a clear decision or opportunistic finish.

Timing 1 question

Which round is most likely to end it?

  • ChatGPT

    If it ends early, round 1 is most likely (47% of finishes). Chance of a round-1 finish overall: 30%.

  • Claude

    If it ends early, round 1 is most likely (40% of finishes). Chance of a round-1 finish overall: 25%.

  • Gemini

    If it ends early, round 1 is most likely (44% of finishes). Chance of a round-1 finish overall: 24%.

What if 3 questions

If it gets past round 1, what changes?

  • ChatGPT

    If it gets past round 1: Thicknesse 26% (from 20%), Chopurov 73% (from 79%).

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Surviving the opening round gives Thicknesse more opportunities to settle into a measured pace. Chopurov can still build toward a finish through repeated takedowns and tiring scrambles.

  • Claude

    If it gets past round 1: Thicknesse 39% (from 35%), Chopurov 59% (from 64%).

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard If Thicknesse survives the opening round, the fight becomes more of a grind where his durability and pace can make it competitive, while Chopurov's output and finishing urgency may fade somewhat.

  • Gemini

    If it gets past round 1: Thicknesse 20% (from 18%), Chopurov 78% (from 81%).

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Once past the opening frame, Chopurov's early knockout and submission threat shifts toward a grueling positional grind. Thicknesse's proven three-round durability allows him to stay competitive in extended exchanges if he avoids getting pinned underneath.

What is the upset path?

  • ChatGPT

    Thicknesse's most likely upset: Thicknesse by decision (14%).

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Thicknesse needs to deny sustained top control, make Chopurov reset at distance, and win rounds through cleaner activity. His strongest route is a disciplined decision rather than trading power.

  • Claude

    Thicknesse's most likely upset: Thicknesse by decision (18%).

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Thicknesse drags Chopurov into a grinding clinch and wrestling fight, tests his debut-night cardio, and banks rounds on volume and control.

  • Gemini

    Thicknesse's most likely upset: Thicknesse by decision (12%).

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Colby Thicknesse is most likely to win by stuffing takedown entries, keeping the fight at kicking range, and outworking a tiring Chopurov over three full rounds to take a decision.

What is each fighter's best path to victory?

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Thicknesse should use movement, straight punches and quick exits to keep exchanges brief and preserve energy for takedown defense. Chopurov should pressure into clinches, establish top position and attack the back during escapes.

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Thicknesse: use pressure, wrestling and cage control to take Chopurov into deeper rounds and win on volume. Chopurov: land early power and finish before Thicknesse can settle in.

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Chopurov's best path is pressuring forward to secure chain takedowns, wearing Thicknesse down with heavy ground strikes while hunting for rear-naked chokes in scrambles. Thicknesse's best path is using constant footwork and volume striking to stay off the fence, forcing Chopurov to work at an uncomfortable pace across fifteen minutes.

What to watch 1 question

What should I watch for early?

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Watch whether Thicknesse can escape after the first takedown and whether his straight punches interrupt Chopurov's entries.

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Watch whether Chopurov lands clean power strikes and how Thicknesse reacts, and whether Thicknesse manages to close distance for takedowns or clinches.

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Watch how easily Chopurov closes the distance when Thicknesse lunges into striking exchanges, and whether Thicknesse can immediately scramble free from the first takedown attempt without giving up his back.

Compared with others 1 question

Do the models agree?

  • All models

    The models agree: all 3 pick Chopurov.

After the fight 2 questions

What happened vs what the model said?

  • ChatGPT

    Result: Thicknesse by decision, the model's number 4 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Chopurov by submission (32%).

  • Claude

    Result: Thicknesse by decision, the model's joint number 2 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Chopurov by KO/TKO (38%).

  • Gemini

    Result: Thicknesse by decision, the model's number 4 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Chopurov by decision (33%).

How much chance did it give the actual result?

  • ChatGPT

    14% (about 14 in 100).

  • Claude

    18% (about 18 in 100).

  • Gemini

    12% (about 12 in 100).

More questions (37)

The result 10 questions

KO/TKO vs submission vs decision overall

  • ChatGPT

    KO/TKO 27%, submission 36%, decision 36%. Draw or no contest: 1%.

  • Claude

    KO/TKO 49%, submission 12%, decision 37%. Draw or no contest: 2%.

  • Gemini

    KO/TKO 29%, submission 26%, decision 45%. Draw or no contest: 2%.

Chance of a draw or no contest

  • ChatGPT

    1%.

  • Claude

    2%.

  • Gemini

    2%.

Who is more likely to finish the other?

  • ChatGPT

    Chopurov: 57%, against 6% for Thicknesse.

  • Claude

    Chopurov: 45%, against 16% for Thicknesse.

  • Gemini

    Chopurov: 48%, against 6% for Thicknesse.

Can Thicknesse get the finish? Can Chopurov?

  • ChatGPT

    Thicknesse: 6% (KO/TKO 2%, submission 4%). Chopurov: 57% (KO/TKO 25%, submission 32%).

  • Claude

    Thicknesse: 16% (KO/TKO 12%, submission 5%). Chopurov: 45% (KO/TKO 38%, submission 8%).

  • Gemini

    Thicknesse: 6% (KO/TKO 4%, submission 3%). Chopurov: 48% (KO/TKO 25%, submission 23%).

Who is more likely to be knocked out, and who to be submitted?

  • ChatGPT

    Thicknesse is knocked out in 25% and submitted in 32%. Chopurov is knocked out in 2% and submitted in 4%.

  • Claude

    Thicknesse is knocked out in 38% and submitted in 8%. Chopurov is knocked out in 12% and submitted in 5%.

  • Gemini

    Thicknesse is knocked out in 25% and submitted in 23%. Chopurov is knocked out in 4% and submitted in 3%.

How lopsided is this fight?

  • ChatGPT

    Lopsided: 79% vs 20%.

  • Claude

    Lopsided: 64% vs 35%.

  • Gemini

    Lopsided: 81% vs 18%.

Each fighter's single most likely way to win

  • ChatGPT

    Thicknesse by decision: 14%. Chopurov by decision: 22%.

  • Claude

    Thicknesse by decision: 18%. Chopurov by decision: 18%.

  • Gemini

    Thicknesse by decision: 12%. Chopurov by decision: 33%.

How big an upset would it be if the underdog wins?

  • ChatGPT

    Thicknesse wins 20% (about 1 in 5 fights): a big upset.

  • Claude

    Thicknesse wins 35% (about 1 in 3 fights): a big upset.

  • Gemini

    Thicknesse wins 18% (about 1 in 6 fights): a big upset.

How does this fight rank on the card (closest, most likely to end early)?

  • ChatGPT

    Among 14 of 14 fights on the card with a forecast from this model: the 13th closest, and the 6th most likely to end early.

  • Claude

    Among 14 of 14 fights on the card with a forecast from this model: the 11th closest, and the 4th most likely to end early.

  • Gemini

    Among 14 of 14 fights on the card with a forecast from this model: the 14th closest, and the 6th most likely to end early.

Is this fight worth watching?

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Yes, this is an intriguing test of an aggressive newcomer against a resilient, technically capable opponent.

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Yes, a fun prospect test: an undefeated, hyped debutant against a gritty UFC veteran who will push the pace.

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Yes, this bout showcases a clash between Chopurov's explosive sambo-based pressure and Thicknesse's gritty three-round durability and high-volume pace.

Timing 6 questions

Chance it ends in round 1

  • ChatGPT

    30%.

  • Claude

    25%.

  • Gemini

    24%.

Chance it is over by round 2

  • ChatGPT

    50%.

  • Claude

    48%.

  • Gemini

    41%.

Chance it goes to a decision

  • ChatGPT

    36%. Draw or no contest: 1%.

  • Claude

    37%. Draw or no contest: 2%.

  • Gemini

    45%. Draw or no contest: 2%.

Chance of a finish in the final round

  • ChatGPT

    Round 3: 13%.

  • Claude

    Round 3: 14%.

  • Gemini

    Round 3: 13%.

If it ends early (rounds 1–2), is it more likely a KO or a submission?

  • ChatGPT

    Of early finishes: KO/TKO 43%, submission 57%.

  • Claude

    Of early finishes: KO/TKO 81%, submission 19%.

  • Gemini

    Of early finishes: KO/TKO 52%, submission 48%.

Who is favoured in a short fight vs a long one?

  • ChatGPT

    If it ends in rounds 1–2: Chopurov 92%. If it goes longer: Chopurov 67%. Chance to win in rounds 1–2: Thicknesse 4%, Chopurov 46%.

  • Claude

    If it ends in rounds 1–2: Chopurov 75%. If it goes longer: Chopurov 55%. Chance to win in rounds 1–2: Thicknesse 12%, Chopurov 36%.

  • Gemini

    If it ends in rounds 1–2: Chopurov 89%. If it goes longer: Chopurov 77%. Chance to win in rounds 1–2: Thicknesse 5%, Chopurov 37%.

What if 2 questions

If it goes to the judges, who wins?

  • ChatGPT

    If it goes to the judges: Thicknesse 39%, Chopurov 61%.

  • Claude

    If it goes to the judges: Thicknesse 50%, Chopurov 50%.

  • Gemini

    If it goes to the judges: Thicknesse 26%, Chopurov 74%.

What could make this fight one-sided?

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Chopurov could dominate if his first takedowns produce prolonged control. That would force Thicknesse to spend his energy defending instead of building offense.

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Chopurov landing early power and overwhelming Thicknesse would make it one-sided; the quality of his regional opposition is uncertain.

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Chopurov's superior sambo wrestling and top control could make this fight completely one-sided in his favor if Thicknesse cannot stop the initial takedown entries or build his base back to the feet.

What to watch 7 questions

What is the key matchup edge?

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Chopurov holds the projected edge in imposing and maintaining top position, which could neutralize much of Thicknesse's own grappling offense.

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Chopurov's finishing power and sharper striking against Thicknesse's more modest striking defense.

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Chopurov holds the most important edge with his relentless chain wrestling and sambo grappling against an opponent who has historically struggled to defend takedowns.

What is the biggest X-factor?

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard The biggest uncertainty is how comfortably Chopurov can impose his regional success against a durable opponent with UFC experience.

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Chopurov's UFC debut adjustment: Abu Dhabi stage, step up in opposition and unproven cardio against elite-level pressure.

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Thicknesse's toughness and championship-camp conditioning could become a major factor if he forces Chopurov to expend too much energy chasing an early finish.

What would change the model's mind?

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Consistent early takedown defense and clean exits from Thicknesse would substantially narrow my lean. Chopurov struggling to maintain his pace after failed entries would also matter.

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Strong early takedown success by Thicknesse, or evidence Chopurov struggles with the step up or weight cut, would move me toward Thicknesse.

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Evidence that Thicknesse has significantly closed his takedown defense gaps or that Chopurov struggles to maintain his aggressive grappling pace past the first round would change the outlook.

What are the biggest unknowns?

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard I could not establish verified weigh-in outcomes or independently confirmed injury status for either fighter.

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard The true quality of Chopurov's regional opposition, and his cardio and grappling defense against UFC-level wrestlers.

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard It remains uncertain how well Chopurov's cardio holds up against UFC-caliber resistance when forced to wrestle relentlessly for three full rounds, and how much Thicknesse's defensive grappling has progressed since his recent bouts.

Who wins the striking, and who wins the grappling?

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard I lean Chopurov in striking for the greater damage threat, though the technical gap is less clear. I also favor his grappling through stronger positional pressure and back attacks.

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Chopurov should win the striking on power and finishing instincts; grappling is closer, with Thicknesse's UFC experience giving him a slight edge.

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Chopurov should win the striking due to his explosive power punishing Thicknesse's lunging entries, and he should dominate the grappling through superior sambo chain wrestling and dangerous back takes.

Who is better late in the fight?

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard I still lean Chopurov later if his control is accumulating fatigue. Thicknesse becomes more competitive if he reaches the final round without spending long stretches underneath.

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Thicknesse is the safer bet late thanks to UFC experience and decision durability, but Chopurov is favored overall if he finds a finish earlier.

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Chopurov remains favored late due to accumulated top control damage, though Thicknesse's proven three-round durability gives him his best chance to edge rounds late if the pace stays high on the feet.

Biggest danger for Thicknesse, and for Chopurov

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Thicknesse's biggest danger is conceding his back while trying to stand under pressure. Chopurov's biggest danger is spending too much energy chasing an early finish and allowing Thicknesse to take over the pace.

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Thicknesse: eating early heavy shots that end the fight before his grinding game starts. Chopurov: a debut-night stumble against a veteran who can wrestle and push pace into deeper rounds.

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard For Thicknesse, the biggest danger is lunging into a heavy counter strike or exposing his neck during a frantic scramble to escape bottom position. For Chopurov, the biggest danger is burning through his gas tank hunting an early finish and getting outworked on volume in the later frames.

Compared with others 5 questions

Where does this model differ from the others?

  • ChatGPT

    Biggest difference: Chopurov by submission in round 1, 16% here against 7% on average for the others.

  • Claude

    Biggest difference: Chopurov by submission in round 1, 3% here against 13% on average for the others.

  • Gemini

    Biggest difference: Chopurov by decision, 33% here against 20% on average for the others.

How does it compare with analyst picks?

  • ChatGPT

    Of 46 analyst picks, 10 back Thicknesse and 36 back Chopurov. This model picks Chopurov (79%).

  • Claude

    Of 46 analyst picks, 10 back Thicknesse and 36 back Chopurov. This model picks Chopurov (64%).

  • Gemini

    Of 46 analyst picks, 10 back Thicknesse and 36 back Chopurov. This model picks Chopurov (81%).

Which model is most confident on Thicknesse, and which on Chopurov?

  • All models

    On Thicknesse: Claude (35%). On Chopurov: Gemini (81%).

Where do the models disagree most?

  • All models

    Chopurov by decision: from 18% (Claude) to 33% (Gemini).

Which analyst agrees most with this model?

  • ChatGPT

    Tom Feely (Chopurov by submission in round 1): the same winner, method and round as this model; this model favours Chopurov, most likely by submission (likeliest round 1).

  • Claude

    Fight Productions (Chopurov by KO/TKO in round 1), Greedo Plays MMA (Chopurov by KO/TKO in round 1) and Aniki MMA (Chopurov by KO/TKO in round 1): the same winner, method and round as this model, tied; this model favours Chopurov, most likely by KO/TKO (likeliest round 1).

  • Gemini

    Chris Schweppe (Chopurov by decision), Fight Genie (Claude) (Chopurov by decision), Fight Genie (GPT) (Chopurov by decision), KingofCrackdown5095 (Chopurov by decision), Brandon K (Chopurov by decision), Voice of MMA (Chopurov by decision) and Mate Bersenadze (Chopurov by decision): the same winner and method as this model, tied; this model favours Chopurov, most likely by decision.

How sure 5 questions

How good has this model been?

  • ChatGPT

    It picked the winner in 63 of 108 settled fights (58%). Draws, no contests and even forecasts are left out.

  • Claude

    It picked the winner in 61 of 101 settled fights (60%). Draws, no contests and even forecasts are left out.

  • Gemini

    It picked the winner in 68 of 108 settled fights (63%). Draws, no contests and even forecasts are left out.

When was this forecast made, and by which model version?

  • ChatGPT

    On 23 Oct 2026, by gpt-6-astra.

  • Claude

    On 23 Oct 2026, by claude-sonnet-5-5.

  • Gemini

    On 23 Oct 2026, by a model version the provider did not report.

What can't the model know?

  • FightCard

    Models research public information before the fight, such as records, styles, recent results and coverage. They cannot see inside training camps, injuries nobody has reported, or what happens on the night. A small chance is not no chance: outcomes the model rates at a few percent still happen, and big favourites lose sometimes.

How is "confidence" worked out?

  • FightCard

    Confidence restates the favourite's win chance on a 10-step scale: the win chance in tens, rounded, so 55% is 6 of 10 and 95% or more is 10 of 10. 1 to 3 reads Low, 4 to 6 Medium and 7 to 10 High. A favourite usually has at least half the chance, so most picks show 5 or more. When the model has the fighters exactly even, there is no pick and no confidence level. It is not a separate judgement by the model.

What counts as a KO, a decision or a draw?

  • FightCard

    KO/TKO includes referee, doctor and corner stoppages, and disqualifications. A decision includes a fight stopped early and scored on the judges' cards. A stoppage between rounds counts as a finish in the round that just ended. A draw and a no contest share one outcome.

After the fight 2 questions

Which model was closest?

  • All models

    Claude, which gave the actual result 18%.

Was the actual result in this model's top 3?

  • ChatGPT

    No.

  • Claude

    Yes.

  • Gemini

    No.

ChatGPT

Pick

Chopurov

Confidence 8 of 10 · High

Most likely: Chopurov by submission, about 32 in 100

Win chance: Thicknesse 20%, Chopurov 79%, draw or no contest 1%.

Most likely outcomes

  1. Chopurov by submission32%

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard I expect Chopurov's takedowns and positional pressure to create back-taking opportunities as Thicknesse tries to stand. A choke is his clearest finishing route.

  2. Chopurov by KO/TKO25%

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Chopurov's heavier offense could hurt Thicknesse during entries or produce a stoppage through ground strikes if defensive scrambles become exhausting.

  3. Chopurov by decision22%

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Thicknesse's defensive grappling and resilience could deny a finish while still leaving Chopurov ahead through control and more damaging exchanges.

When and how it ends
  1. Round 1: Thicknesse KO/TKO 1%, submission 1%; Chopurov KO/TKO 12%, submission 16%.
  2. Round 2: Thicknesse KO/TKO 1%, submission 2%; Chopurov KO/TKO 8%, submission 10%.
  3. Round 3: Thicknesse KO/TKO 1%, submission 2%; Chopurov KO/TKO 5%, submission 6%.
  4. Decision: Thicknesse 14%; Chopurov 22%.

Draw or no contest: 1%

Show every outcome as a table
Every outcome in ChatGPT's forecast, in percent
OutcomeR1R2R3Decision
Thicknesse KO/TKO1%1%1%—
Thicknesse Submission1%2%2%—
Thicknesse Decision———14%
Chopurov KO/TKO12%8%5%—
Chopurov Submission16%10%6%—
Chopurov Decision———22%
Draw or no contest1%

Questions

The result 8 questions

Who wins, and how likely?

  • ChatGPT

    Chopurov: 79% (about 79 in 100 fights). Thicknesse: 20%. Draw or no contest: 1%.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Chopurov: 64% (about 64 in 100 fights). Thicknesse: 35%. Draw or no contest: 2%.

  • Gemini

    Chopurov: 81% (about 81 in 100 fights). Thicknesse: 18%. Draw or no contest: 2%.

What is the single most likely outcome?

  • ChatGPT

    Chopurov by submission: 32% (about 32 in 100).

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Chopurov by KO/TKO: 38% (about 38 in 100).

  • Gemini

    Chopurov by decision: 33% (about 33 in 100).

What are the three most likely outcomes, and why?

  • ChatGPT

    1. Chopurov by submission (32%); 2. Chopurov by KO/TKO (25%); 3. Chopurov by decision (22%)

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard
    • Chopurov by submission: I expect Chopurov's takedowns and positional pressure to create back-taking opportunities as Thicknesse tries to stand. A choke is his clearest finishing route.
    • Chopurov by KO/TKO: Chopurov's heavier offense could hurt Thicknesse during entries or produce a stoppage through ground strikes if defensive scrambles become exhausting.
    • Chopurov by decision: Thicknesse's defensive grappling and resilience could deny a finish while still leaving Chopurov ahead through control and more damaging exchanges.
Other models' answers

  • Claude

    1. Chopurov by KO/TKO (38%); 2. Thicknesse by decision (18%); 2. Chopurov by decision (18%)

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard
    • Chopurov by KO/TKO: Chopurov has finished most of his wins, including a first-round KO, and has more power than Thicknesse can safely absorb.
    • Chopurov by decision: Thicknesse is durable and experienced enough to last, with Chopurov winning on cleaner striking.
    • Thicknesse by decision: Thicknesse could grind out rounds if Chopurov struggles with the UFC step up.

  • Gemini

    1. Chopurov by decision (33%); 2. Chopurov by KO/TKO (25%); 3. Chopurov by submission (23%)

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard
    • Chopurov by decision: Chopurov brings relentless forward pressure and superior sambo grappling against an opponent who has struggled to defend takedowns. Thicknesse has proven durability across full three-round bouts, making a distance win very likely.
    • Chopurov by KO/TKO: Chopurov possesses explosive knockout power and heavy ground strikes that have stopped top regional veterans early. His aggressive entries can exploit defensive openings when Thicknesse lunges in striking exchanges.
    • Chopurov by submission: Chopurov is an opportunistic finisher on the mat with multiple rear-naked choke victories in championship competition. His chain wrestling should create frequent back-exposure opportunities during scrambles.
How confident is the model?

  • ChatGPT

    8 of 10, based on Chopurov's 79% win chance.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    6 of 10, based on Chopurov's 64% win chance.

  • Gemini

    8 of 10, based on Chopurov's 81% win chance.

Does it end early or go to the judges?

  • ChatGPT

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 63%. Decision: 36%. Draw or no contest: 1%.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 62%. Decision: 37%. Draw or no contest: 2%.

  • Gemini

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 54%. Decision: 45%. Draw or no contest: 2%.

How does Thicknesse win?

  • ChatGPT

    Thicknesse wins 20%: KO/TKO 2%, submission 4%, decision 14%.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Thicknesse wins 35%: KO/TKO 12%, submission 5%, decision 18%.

  • Gemini

    Thicknesse wins 18%: KO/TKO 4%, submission 3%, decision 12%.

How does Chopurov win?

  • ChatGPT

    Chopurov wins 79%: KO/TKO 25%, submission 32%, decision 22%.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Chopurov wins 64%: KO/TKO 38%, submission 8%, decision 18%.

  • Gemini

    Chopurov wins 81%: KO/TKO 25%, submission 23%, decision 33%.

The fight in one sentence

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Chopurov should impose the stronger wrestling and heavier offense, with a submission the likeliest finish if Thicknesse cannot escape bottom position.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Chopurov, an undefeated finisher making his debut, likely pressures and wins by stoppage or decision against the tougher-tested but limited Thicknesse.

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Asaf Chopurov should use his relentless forward pressure, superior sambo grappling, and heavy top control to wear down Colby Thicknesse for a clear decision or opportunistic finish.

Timing 1 question

Which round is most likely to end it?

  • ChatGPT

    If it ends early, round 1 is most likely (47% of finishes). Chance of a round-1 finish overall: 30%.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    If it ends early, round 1 is most likely (40% of finishes). Chance of a round-1 finish overall: 25%.

  • Gemini

    If it ends early, round 1 is most likely (44% of finishes). Chance of a round-1 finish overall: 24%.

What if 3 questions

If it gets past round 1, what changes?

  • ChatGPT

    If it gets past round 1: Thicknesse 26% (from 20%), Chopurov 73% (from 79%).

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Surviving the opening round gives Thicknesse more opportunities to settle into a measured pace. Chopurov can still build toward a finish through repeated takedowns and tiring scrambles.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    If it gets past round 1: Thicknesse 39% (from 35%), Chopurov 59% (from 64%).

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard If Thicknesse survives the opening round, the fight becomes more of a grind where his durability and pace can make it competitive, while Chopurov's output and finishing urgency may fade somewhat.

  • Gemini

    If it gets past round 1: Thicknesse 20% (from 18%), Chopurov 78% (from 81%).

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Once past the opening frame, Chopurov's early knockout and submission threat shifts toward a grueling positional grind. Thicknesse's proven three-round durability allows him to stay competitive in extended exchanges if he avoids getting pinned underneath.

What is the upset path?

  • ChatGPT

    Thicknesse's most likely upset: Thicknesse by decision (14%).

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Thicknesse needs to deny sustained top control, make Chopurov reset at distance, and win rounds through cleaner activity. His strongest route is a disciplined decision rather than trading power.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Thicknesse's most likely upset: Thicknesse by decision (18%).

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Thicknesse drags Chopurov into a grinding clinch and wrestling fight, tests his debut-night cardio, and banks rounds on volume and control.

  • Gemini

    Thicknesse's most likely upset: Thicknesse by decision (12%).

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Colby Thicknesse is most likely to win by stuffing takedown entries, keeping the fight at kicking range, and outworking a tiring Chopurov over three full rounds to take a decision.

What is each fighter's best path to victory?

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Thicknesse should use movement, straight punches and quick exits to keep exchanges brief and preserve energy for takedown defense. Chopurov should pressure into clinches, establish top position and attack the back during escapes.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Thicknesse: use pressure, wrestling and cage control to take Chopurov into deeper rounds and win on volume. Chopurov: land early power and finish before Thicknesse can settle in.

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Chopurov's best path is pressuring forward to secure chain takedowns, wearing Thicknesse down with heavy ground strikes while hunting for rear-naked chokes in scrambles. Thicknesse's best path is using constant footwork and volume striking to stay off the fence, forcing Chopurov to work at an uncomfortable pace across fifteen minutes.

What to watch 1 question

What should I watch for early?

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Watch whether Thicknesse can escape after the first takedown and whether his straight punches interrupt Chopurov's entries.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Watch whether Chopurov lands clean power strikes and how Thicknesse reacts, and whether Thicknesse manages to close distance for takedowns or clinches.

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Watch how easily Chopurov closes the distance when Thicknesse lunges into striking exchanges, and whether Thicknesse can immediately scramble free from the first takedown attempt without giving up his back.

Compared with others 1 question

Do the models agree?

  • ChatGPT

    The models agree: all 3 pick Chopurov.

After the fight 2 questions

What happened vs what the model said?

  • ChatGPT

    Result: Thicknesse by decision, the model's number 4 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Chopurov by submission (32%).

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Result: Thicknesse by decision, the model's joint number 2 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Chopurov by KO/TKO (38%).

  • Gemini

    Result: Thicknesse by decision, the model's number 4 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Chopurov by decision (33%).

How much chance did it give the actual result?

  • ChatGPT

    14% (about 14 in 100).

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    18% (about 18 in 100).

  • Gemini

    12% (about 12 in 100).

More questions (37)

The result 10 questions

KO/TKO vs submission vs decision overall

  • ChatGPT

    KO/TKO 27%, submission 36%, decision 36%. Draw or no contest: 1%.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    KO/TKO 49%, submission 12%, decision 37%. Draw or no contest: 2%.

  • Gemini

    KO/TKO 29%, submission 26%, decision 45%. Draw or no contest: 2%.

Chance of a draw or no contest

  • ChatGPT

    1%.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    2%.

  • Gemini

    2%.

Who is more likely to finish the other?

  • ChatGPT

    Chopurov: 57%, against 6% for Thicknesse.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Chopurov: 45%, against 16% for Thicknesse.

  • Gemini

    Chopurov: 48%, against 6% for Thicknesse.

Can Thicknesse get the finish? Can Chopurov?

  • ChatGPT

    Thicknesse: 6% (KO/TKO 2%, submission 4%). Chopurov: 57% (KO/TKO 25%, submission 32%).

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Thicknesse: 16% (KO/TKO 12%, submission 5%). Chopurov: 45% (KO/TKO 38%, submission 8%).

  • Gemini

    Thicknesse: 6% (KO/TKO 4%, submission 3%). Chopurov: 48% (KO/TKO 25%, submission 23%).

Who is more likely to be knocked out, and who to be submitted?

  • ChatGPT

    Thicknesse is knocked out in 25% and submitted in 32%. Chopurov is knocked out in 2% and submitted in 4%.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Thicknesse is knocked out in 38% and submitted in 8%. Chopurov is knocked out in 12% and submitted in 5%.

  • Gemini

    Thicknesse is knocked out in 25% and submitted in 23%. Chopurov is knocked out in 4% and submitted in 3%.

How lopsided is this fight?

  • ChatGPT

    Lopsided: 79% vs 20%.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Lopsided: 64% vs 35%.

  • Gemini

    Lopsided: 81% vs 18%.

Each fighter's single most likely way to win

  • ChatGPT

    Thicknesse by decision: 14%. Chopurov by decision: 22%.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Thicknesse by decision: 18%. Chopurov by decision: 18%.

  • Gemini

    Thicknesse by decision: 12%. Chopurov by decision: 33%.

How big an upset would it be if the underdog wins?

  • ChatGPT

    Thicknesse wins 20% (about 1 in 5 fights): a big upset.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Thicknesse wins 35% (about 1 in 3 fights): a big upset.

  • Gemini

    Thicknesse wins 18% (about 1 in 6 fights): a big upset.

How does this fight rank on the card (closest, most likely to end early)?

  • ChatGPT

    Among 14 of 14 fights on the card with a forecast from this model: the 13th closest, and the 6th most likely to end early.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Among 14 of 14 fights on the card with a forecast from this model: the 11th closest, and the 4th most likely to end early.

  • Gemini

    Among 14 of 14 fights on the card with a forecast from this model: the 14th closest, and the 6th most likely to end early.

Is this fight worth watching?

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Yes, this is an intriguing test of an aggressive newcomer against a resilient, technically capable opponent.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Yes, a fun prospect test: an undefeated, hyped debutant against a gritty UFC veteran who will push the pace.

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Yes, this bout showcases a clash between Chopurov's explosive sambo-based pressure and Thicknesse's gritty three-round durability and high-volume pace.

Timing 6 questions

Chance it ends in round 1

  • ChatGPT

    30%.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    25%.

  • Gemini

    24%.

Chance it is over by round 2

  • ChatGPT

    50%.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    48%.

  • Gemini

    41%.

Chance it goes to a decision

  • ChatGPT

    36%. Draw or no contest: 1%.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    37%. Draw or no contest: 2%.

  • Gemini

    45%. Draw or no contest: 2%.

Chance of a finish in the final round

  • ChatGPT

    Round 3: 13%.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Round 3: 14%.

If it ends early (rounds 1–2), is it more likely a KO or a submission?

  • ChatGPT

    Of early finishes: KO/TKO 43%, submission 57%.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Of early finishes: KO/TKO 81%, submission 19%.

  • Gemini

    Of early finishes: KO/TKO 52%, submission 48%.

Who is favoured in a short fight vs a long one?

  • ChatGPT

    If it ends in rounds 1–2: Chopurov 92%. If it goes longer: Chopurov 67%. Chance to win in rounds 1–2: Thicknesse 4%, Chopurov 46%.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    If it ends in rounds 1–2: Chopurov 75%. If it goes longer: Chopurov 55%. Chance to win in rounds 1–2: Thicknesse 12%, Chopurov 36%.

  • Gemini

    If it ends in rounds 1–2: Chopurov 89%. If it goes longer: Chopurov 77%. Chance to win in rounds 1–2: Thicknesse 5%, Chopurov 37%.

What if 2 questions

If it goes to the judges, who wins?

  • ChatGPT

    If it goes to the judges: Thicknesse 39%, Chopurov 61%.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    If it goes to the judges: Thicknesse 50%, Chopurov 50%.

  • Gemini

    If it goes to the judges: Thicknesse 26%, Chopurov 74%.

What could make this fight one-sided?

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Chopurov could dominate if his first takedowns produce prolonged control. That would force Thicknesse to spend his energy defending instead of building offense.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Chopurov landing early power and overwhelming Thicknesse would make it one-sided; the quality of his regional opposition is uncertain.

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Chopurov's superior sambo wrestling and top control could make this fight completely one-sided in his favor if Thicknesse cannot stop the initial takedown entries or build his base back to the feet.

What to watch 7 questions

What is the key matchup edge?

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Chopurov holds the projected edge in imposing and maintaining top position, which could neutralize much of Thicknesse's own grappling offense.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Chopurov's finishing power and sharper striking against Thicknesse's more modest striking defense.

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Chopurov holds the most important edge with his relentless chain wrestling and sambo grappling against an opponent who has historically struggled to defend takedowns.

What is the biggest X-factor?

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard The biggest uncertainty is how comfortably Chopurov can impose his regional success against a durable opponent with UFC experience.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Chopurov's UFC debut adjustment: Abu Dhabi stage, step up in opposition and unproven cardio against elite-level pressure.

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Thicknesse's toughness and championship-camp conditioning could become a major factor if he forces Chopurov to expend too much energy chasing an early finish.

What would change the model's mind?

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Consistent early takedown defense and clean exits from Thicknesse would substantially narrow my lean. Chopurov struggling to maintain his pace after failed entries would also matter.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Strong early takedown success by Thicknesse, or evidence Chopurov struggles with the step up or weight cut, would move me toward Thicknesse.

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Evidence that Thicknesse has significantly closed his takedown defense gaps or that Chopurov struggles to maintain his aggressive grappling pace past the first round would change the outlook.

What are the biggest unknowns?

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard I could not establish verified weigh-in outcomes or independently confirmed injury status for either fighter.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard The true quality of Chopurov's regional opposition, and his cardio and grappling defense against UFC-level wrestlers.

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard It remains uncertain how well Chopurov's cardio holds up against UFC-caliber resistance when forced to wrestle relentlessly for three full rounds, and how much Thicknesse's defensive grappling has progressed since his recent bouts.

Who wins the striking, and who wins the grappling?

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard I lean Chopurov in striking for the greater damage threat, though the technical gap is less clear. I also favor his grappling through stronger positional pressure and back attacks.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Chopurov should win the striking on power and finishing instincts; grappling is closer, with Thicknesse's UFC experience giving him a slight edge.

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Chopurov should win the striking due to his explosive power punishing Thicknesse's lunging entries, and he should dominate the grappling through superior sambo chain wrestling and dangerous back takes.

Who is better late in the fight?

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard I still lean Chopurov later if his control is accumulating fatigue. Thicknesse becomes more competitive if he reaches the final round without spending long stretches underneath.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Thicknesse is the safer bet late thanks to UFC experience and decision durability, but Chopurov is favored overall if he finds a finish earlier.

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Chopurov remains favored late due to accumulated top control damage, though Thicknesse's proven three-round durability gives him his best chance to edge rounds late if the pace stays high on the feet.

Biggest danger for Thicknesse, and for Chopurov

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Thicknesse's biggest danger is conceding his back while trying to stand under pressure. Chopurov's biggest danger is spending too much energy chasing an early finish and allowing Thicknesse to take over the pace.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Thicknesse: eating early heavy shots that end the fight before his grinding game starts. Chopurov: a debut-night stumble against a veteran who can wrestle and push pace into deeper rounds.

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard For Thicknesse, the biggest danger is lunging into a heavy counter strike or exposing his neck during a frantic scramble to escape bottom position. For Chopurov, the biggest danger is burning through his gas tank hunting an early finish and getting outworked on volume in the later frames.

Compared with others 5 questions

Where does this model differ from the others?

  • ChatGPT

    Biggest difference: Chopurov by submission in round 1, 16% here against 7% on average for the others.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Biggest difference: Chopurov by submission in round 1, 3% here against 13% on average for the others.

  • Gemini

    Biggest difference: Chopurov by decision, 33% here against 20% on average for the others.

How does it compare with analyst picks?

  • ChatGPT

    Of 46 analyst picks, 10 back Thicknesse and 36 back Chopurov. This model picks Chopurov (79%).

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Of 46 analyst picks, 10 back Thicknesse and 36 back Chopurov. This model picks Chopurov (64%).

  • Gemini

    Of 46 analyst picks, 10 back Thicknesse and 36 back Chopurov. This model picks Chopurov (81%).

Which model is most confident on Thicknesse, and which on Chopurov?

  • ChatGPT

    On Thicknesse: Claude (35%). On Chopurov: Gemini (81%).

Where do the models disagree most?

  • ChatGPT

    Chopurov by decision: from 18% (Claude) to 33% (Gemini).

Which analyst agrees most with this model?

  • ChatGPT

    Tom Feely (Chopurov by submission in round 1): the same winner, method and round as this model; this model favours Chopurov, most likely by submission (likeliest round 1).

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Fight Productions (Chopurov by KO/TKO in round 1), Greedo Plays MMA (Chopurov by KO/TKO in round 1) and Aniki MMA (Chopurov by KO/TKO in round 1): the same winner, method and round as this model, tied; this model favours Chopurov, most likely by KO/TKO (likeliest round 1).

  • Gemini

    Chris Schweppe (Chopurov by decision), Fight Genie (Claude) (Chopurov by decision), Fight Genie (GPT) (Chopurov by decision), KingofCrackdown5095 (Chopurov by decision), Brandon K (Chopurov by decision), Voice of MMA (Chopurov by decision) and Mate Bersenadze (Chopurov by decision): the same winner and method as this model, tied; this model favours Chopurov, most likely by decision.

How sure 5 questions

How good has this model been?

  • ChatGPT

    It picked the winner in 63 of 108 settled fights (58%). Draws, no contests and even forecasts are left out.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    It picked the winner in 61 of 101 settled fights (60%). Draws, no contests and even forecasts are left out.

  • Gemini

    It picked the winner in 68 of 108 settled fights (63%). Draws, no contests and even forecasts are left out.

When was this forecast made, and by which model version?

  • ChatGPT

    On 23 Oct 2026, by gpt-6-astra.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    On 23 Oct 2026, by claude-sonnet-5-5.

  • Gemini

    On 23 Oct 2026, by a model version the provider did not report.

What can't the model know?

  • FightCard

    Models research public information before the fight, such as records, styles, recent results and coverage. They cannot see inside training camps, injuries nobody has reported, or what happens on the night. A small chance is not no chance: outcomes the model rates at a few percent still happen, and big favourites lose sometimes.

How is "confidence" worked out?

  • FightCard

    Confidence restates the favourite's win chance on a 10-step scale: the win chance in tens, rounded, so 55% is 6 of 10 and 95% or more is 10 of 10. 1 to 3 reads Low, 4 to 6 Medium and 7 to 10 High. A favourite usually has at least half the chance, so most picks show 5 or more. When the model has the fighters exactly even, there is no pick and no confidence level. It is not a separate judgement by the model.

What counts as a KO, a decision or a draw?

  • FightCard

    KO/TKO includes referee, doctor and corner stoppages, and disqualifications. A decision includes a fight stopped early and scored on the judges' cards. A stoppage between rounds counts as a finish in the round that just ended. A draw and a no contest share one outcome.

After the fight 2 questions

Which model was closest?

  • ChatGPT

    Claude, which gave the actual result 18%.

Was the actual result in this model's top 3?

  • ChatGPT

    No.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Yes.

gpt-6-astra · 23 Oct63 of 108 winner picks correct · 58% hit rate

Claude

Pick

Chopurov

Confidence 6 of 10 · Medium

Most likely: Chopurov by KO/TKO, about 38 in 100

Win chance: Thicknesse 35%, Chopurov 64%, draw or no contest 2%.

Most likely outcomes

  1. Chopurov by KO/TKO38%

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Chopurov has finished most of his wins, including a first-round KO, and has more power than Thicknesse can safely absorb.

  2. Thicknesse by decision, tied for number 218%

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Thicknesse could grind out rounds if Chopurov struggles with the UFC step up.

  3. Chopurov by decision, tied for number 218%

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Thicknesse is durable and experienced enough to last, with Chopurov winning on cleaner striking.

When and how it ends
  1. Round 1: Thicknesse KO/TKO 4%, submission 1%; Chopurov KO/TKO 16%, submission 3%.
  2. Round 2: Thicknesse KO/TKO 5%, submission 2%; Chopurov KO/TKO 14%, submission 3%.
  3. Round 3: Thicknesse KO/TKO 3%, submission 1%; Chopurov KO/TKO 8%, submission 2%.
  4. Decision: Thicknesse 18%; Chopurov 18%.

Draw or no contest: 2%

Show every outcome as a table
Every outcome in Claude's forecast, in percent
OutcomeR1R2R3Decision
Thicknesse KO/TKO4%5%3%—
Thicknesse Submission1%2%1%—
Thicknesse Decision———18%
Chopurov KO/TKO16%14%8%—
Chopurov Submission3%3%2%—
Chopurov Decision———18%
Draw or no contest2%

Questions

The result 8 questions

Who wins, and how likely?

  • Claude

    Chopurov: 64% (about 64 in 100 fights). Thicknesse: 35%. Draw or no contest: 2%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Chopurov: 79% (about 79 in 100 fights). Thicknesse: 20%. Draw or no contest: 1%.

  • Gemini

    Chopurov: 81% (about 81 in 100 fights). Thicknesse: 18%. Draw or no contest: 2%.

What is the single most likely outcome?

  • Claude

    Chopurov by KO/TKO: 38% (about 38 in 100).

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Chopurov by submission: 32% (about 32 in 100).

  • Gemini

    Chopurov by decision: 33% (about 33 in 100).

What are the three most likely outcomes, and why?

  • Claude

    1. Chopurov by KO/TKO (38%); 2. Thicknesse by decision (18%); 2. Chopurov by decision (18%)

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard
    • Chopurov by KO/TKO: Chopurov has finished most of his wins, including a first-round KO, and has more power than Thicknesse can safely absorb.
    • Chopurov by decision: Thicknesse is durable and experienced enough to last, with Chopurov winning on cleaner striking.
    • Thicknesse by decision: Thicknesse could grind out rounds if Chopurov struggles with the UFC step up.
Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    1. Chopurov by submission (32%); 2. Chopurov by KO/TKO (25%); 3. Chopurov by decision (22%)

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard
    • Chopurov by submission: I expect Chopurov's takedowns and positional pressure to create back-taking opportunities as Thicknesse tries to stand. A choke is his clearest finishing route.
    • Chopurov by KO/TKO: Chopurov's heavier offense could hurt Thicknesse during entries or produce a stoppage through ground strikes if defensive scrambles become exhausting.
    • Chopurov by decision: Thicknesse's defensive grappling and resilience could deny a finish while still leaving Chopurov ahead through control and more damaging exchanges.

  • Gemini

    1. Chopurov by decision (33%); 2. Chopurov by KO/TKO (25%); 3. Chopurov by submission (23%)

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard
    • Chopurov by decision: Chopurov brings relentless forward pressure and superior sambo grappling against an opponent who has struggled to defend takedowns. Thicknesse has proven durability across full three-round bouts, making a distance win very likely.
    • Chopurov by KO/TKO: Chopurov possesses explosive knockout power and heavy ground strikes that have stopped top regional veterans early. His aggressive entries can exploit defensive openings when Thicknesse lunges in striking exchanges.
    • Chopurov by submission: Chopurov is an opportunistic finisher on the mat with multiple rear-naked choke victories in championship competition. His chain wrestling should create frequent back-exposure opportunities during scrambles.
How confident is the model?

  • Claude

    6 of 10, based on Chopurov's 64% win chance.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    8 of 10, based on Chopurov's 79% win chance.

  • Gemini

    8 of 10, based on Chopurov's 81% win chance.

Does it end early or go to the judges?

  • Claude

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 62%. Decision: 37%. Draw or no contest: 2%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 63%. Decision: 36%. Draw or no contest: 1%.

  • Gemini

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 54%. Decision: 45%. Draw or no contest: 2%.

How does Thicknesse win?

  • Claude

    Thicknesse wins 35%: KO/TKO 12%, submission 5%, decision 18%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Thicknesse wins 20%: KO/TKO 2%, submission 4%, decision 14%.

  • Gemini

    Thicknesse wins 18%: KO/TKO 4%, submission 3%, decision 12%.

How does Chopurov win?

  • Claude

    Chopurov wins 64%: KO/TKO 38%, submission 8%, decision 18%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Chopurov wins 79%: KO/TKO 25%, submission 32%, decision 22%.

  • Gemini

    Chopurov wins 81%: KO/TKO 25%, submission 23%, decision 33%.

The fight in one sentence

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Chopurov, an undefeated finisher making his debut, likely pressures and wins by stoppage or decision against the tougher-tested but limited Thicknesse.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Chopurov should impose the stronger wrestling and heavier offense, with a submission the likeliest finish if Thicknesse cannot escape bottom position.

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Asaf Chopurov should use his relentless forward pressure, superior sambo grappling, and heavy top control to wear down Colby Thicknesse for a clear decision or opportunistic finish.

Timing 1 question

Which round is most likely to end it?

  • Claude

    If it ends early, round 1 is most likely (40% of finishes). Chance of a round-1 finish overall: 25%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    If it ends early, round 1 is most likely (47% of finishes). Chance of a round-1 finish overall: 30%.

  • Gemini

    If it ends early, round 1 is most likely (44% of finishes). Chance of a round-1 finish overall: 24%.

What if 3 questions

If it gets past round 1, what changes?

  • Claude

    If it gets past round 1: Thicknesse 39% (from 35%), Chopurov 59% (from 64%).

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard If Thicknesse survives the opening round, the fight becomes more of a grind where his durability and pace can make it competitive, while Chopurov's output and finishing urgency may fade somewhat.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    If it gets past round 1: Thicknesse 26% (from 20%), Chopurov 73% (from 79%).

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Surviving the opening round gives Thicknesse more opportunities to settle into a measured pace. Chopurov can still build toward a finish through repeated takedowns and tiring scrambles.

  • Gemini

    If it gets past round 1: Thicknesse 20% (from 18%), Chopurov 78% (from 81%).

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Once past the opening frame, Chopurov's early knockout and submission threat shifts toward a grueling positional grind. Thicknesse's proven three-round durability allows him to stay competitive in extended exchanges if he avoids getting pinned underneath.

What is the upset path?

  • Claude

    Thicknesse's most likely upset: Thicknesse by decision (18%).

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Thicknesse drags Chopurov into a grinding clinch and wrestling fight, tests his debut-night cardio, and banks rounds on volume and control.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Thicknesse's most likely upset: Thicknesse by decision (14%).

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Thicknesse needs to deny sustained top control, make Chopurov reset at distance, and win rounds through cleaner activity. His strongest route is a disciplined decision rather than trading power.

  • Gemini

    Thicknesse's most likely upset: Thicknesse by decision (12%).

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Colby Thicknesse is most likely to win by stuffing takedown entries, keeping the fight at kicking range, and outworking a tiring Chopurov over three full rounds to take a decision.

What is each fighter's best path to victory?

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Thicknesse: use pressure, wrestling and cage control to take Chopurov into deeper rounds and win on volume. Chopurov: land early power and finish before Thicknesse can settle in.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Thicknesse should use movement, straight punches and quick exits to keep exchanges brief and preserve energy for takedown defense. Chopurov should pressure into clinches, establish top position and attack the back during escapes.

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Chopurov's best path is pressuring forward to secure chain takedowns, wearing Thicknesse down with heavy ground strikes while hunting for rear-naked chokes in scrambles. Thicknesse's best path is using constant footwork and volume striking to stay off the fence, forcing Chopurov to work at an uncomfortable pace across fifteen minutes.

What to watch 1 question

What should I watch for early?

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Watch whether Chopurov lands clean power strikes and how Thicknesse reacts, and whether Thicknesse manages to close distance for takedowns or clinches.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Watch whether Thicknesse can escape after the first takedown and whether his straight punches interrupt Chopurov's entries.

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Watch how easily Chopurov closes the distance when Thicknesse lunges into striking exchanges, and whether Thicknesse can immediately scramble free from the first takedown attempt without giving up his back.

Compared with others 1 question

Do the models agree?

  • Claude

    The models agree: all 3 pick Chopurov.

After the fight 2 questions

What happened vs what the model said?

  • Claude

    Result: Thicknesse by decision, the model's joint number 2 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Chopurov by KO/TKO (38%).

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Result: Thicknesse by decision, the model's number 4 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Chopurov by submission (32%).

  • Gemini

    Result: Thicknesse by decision, the model's number 4 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Chopurov by decision (33%).

How much chance did it give the actual result?

  • Claude

    18% (about 18 in 100).

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    14% (about 14 in 100).

  • Gemini

    12% (about 12 in 100).

More questions (37)

The result 10 questions

KO/TKO vs submission vs decision overall

  • Claude

    KO/TKO 49%, submission 12%, decision 37%. Draw or no contest: 2%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    KO/TKO 27%, submission 36%, decision 36%. Draw or no contest: 1%.

  • Gemini

    KO/TKO 29%, submission 26%, decision 45%. Draw or no contest: 2%.

Chance of a draw or no contest

  • Claude

    2%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    1%.

Who is more likely to finish the other?

  • Claude

    Chopurov: 45%, against 16% for Thicknesse.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Chopurov: 57%, against 6% for Thicknesse.

  • Gemini

    Chopurov: 48%, against 6% for Thicknesse.

Can Thicknesse get the finish? Can Chopurov?

  • Claude

    Thicknesse: 16% (KO/TKO 12%, submission 5%). Chopurov: 45% (KO/TKO 38%, submission 8%).

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Thicknesse: 6% (KO/TKO 2%, submission 4%). Chopurov: 57% (KO/TKO 25%, submission 32%).

  • Gemini

    Thicknesse: 6% (KO/TKO 4%, submission 3%). Chopurov: 48% (KO/TKO 25%, submission 23%).

Who is more likely to be knocked out, and who to be submitted?

  • Claude

    Thicknesse is knocked out in 38% and submitted in 8%. Chopurov is knocked out in 12% and submitted in 5%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Thicknesse is knocked out in 25% and submitted in 32%. Chopurov is knocked out in 2% and submitted in 4%.

  • Gemini

    Thicknesse is knocked out in 25% and submitted in 23%. Chopurov is knocked out in 4% and submitted in 3%.

How lopsided is this fight?

  • Claude

    Lopsided: 64% vs 35%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Lopsided: 79% vs 20%.

  • Gemini

    Lopsided: 81% vs 18%.

Each fighter's single most likely way to win

  • Claude

    Thicknesse by decision: 18%. Chopurov by decision: 18%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Thicknesse by decision: 14%. Chopurov by decision: 22%.

  • Gemini

    Thicknesse by decision: 12%. Chopurov by decision: 33%.

How big an upset would it be if the underdog wins?

  • Claude

    Thicknesse wins 35% (about 1 in 3 fights): a big upset.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Thicknesse wins 20% (about 1 in 5 fights): a big upset.

  • Gemini

    Thicknesse wins 18% (about 1 in 6 fights): a big upset.

How does this fight rank on the card (closest, most likely to end early)?

  • Claude

    Among 14 of 14 fights on the card with a forecast from this model: the 11th closest, and the 4th most likely to end early.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Among 14 of 14 fights on the card with a forecast from this model: the 13th closest, and the 6th most likely to end early.

  • Gemini

    Among 14 of 14 fights on the card with a forecast from this model: the 14th closest, and the 6th most likely to end early.

Is this fight worth watching?

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Yes, a fun prospect test: an undefeated, hyped debutant against a gritty UFC veteran who will push the pace.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Yes, this is an intriguing test of an aggressive newcomer against a resilient, technically capable opponent.

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Yes, this bout showcases a clash between Chopurov's explosive sambo-based pressure and Thicknesse's gritty three-round durability and high-volume pace.

Timing 6 questions

Chance it ends in round 1

  • Claude

    25%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    30%.

  • Gemini

    24%.

Chance it is over by round 2

  • Claude

    48%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    50%.

  • Gemini

    41%.

Chance it goes to a decision

  • Claude

    37%. Draw or no contest: 2%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    36%. Draw or no contest: 1%.

  • Gemini

    45%. Draw or no contest: 2%.

Chance of a finish in the final round

  • Claude

    Round 3: 14%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Round 3: 13%.

  • Gemini

    Round 3: 13%.

If it ends early (rounds 1–2), is it more likely a KO or a submission?

  • Claude

    Of early finishes: KO/TKO 81%, submission 19%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Of early finishes: KO/TKO 43%, submission 57%.

  • Gemini

    Of early finishes: KO/TKO 52%, submission 48%.

Who is favoured in a short fight vs a long one?

  • Claude

    If it ends in rounds 1–2: Chopurov 75%. If it goes longer: Chopurov 55%. Chance to win in rounds 1–2: Thicknesse 12%, Chopurov 36%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    If it ends in rounds 1–2: Chopurov 92%. If it goes longer: Chopurov 67%. Chance to win in rounds 1–2: Thicknesse 4%, Chopurov 46%.

  • Gemini

    If it ends in rounds 1–2: Chopurov 89%. If it goes longer: Chopurov 77%. Chance to win in rounds 1–2: Thicknesse 5%, Chopurov 37%.

What if 2 questions

If it goes to the judges, who wins?

  • Claude

    If it goes to the judges: Thicknesse 50%, Chopurov 50%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    If it goes to the judges: Thicknesse 39%, Chopurov 61%.

  • Gemini

    If it goes to the judges: Thicknesse 26%, Chopurov 74%.

What could make this fight one-sided?

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Chopurov landing early power and overwhelming Thicknesse would make it one-sided; the quality of his regional opposition is uncertain.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Chopurov could dominate if his first takedowns produce prolonged control. That would force Thicknesse to spend his energy defending instead of building offense.

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Chopurov's superior sambo wrestling and top control could make this fight completely one-sided in his favor if Thicknesse cannot stop the initial takedown entries or build his base back to the feet.

What to watch 7 questions

What is the key matchup edge?

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Chopurov's finishing power and sharper striking against Thicknesse's more modest striking defense.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Chopurov holds the projected edge in imposing and maintaining top position, which could neutralize much of Thicknesse's own grappling offense.

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Chopurov holds the most important edge with his relentless chain wrestling and sambo grappling against an opponent who has historically struggled to defend takedowns.

What is the biggest X-factor?

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Chopurov's UFC debut adjustment: Abu Dhabi stage, step up in opposition and unproven cardio against elite-level pressure.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard The biggest uncertainty is how comfortably Chopurov can impose his regional success against a durable opponent with UFC experience.

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Thicknesse's toughness and championship-camp conditioning could become a major factor if he forces Chopurov to expend too much energy chasing an early finish.

What would change the model's mind?

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Strong early takedown success by Thicknesse, or evidence Chopurov struggles with the step up or weight cut, would move me toward Thicknesse.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Consistent early takedown defense and clean exits from Thicknesse would substantially narrow my lean. Chopurov struggling to maintain his pace after failed entries would also matter.

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Evidence that Thicknesse has significantly closed his takedown defense gaps or that Chopurov struggles to maintain his aggressive grappling pace past the first round would change the outlook.

What are the biggest unknowns?

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard The true quality of Chopurov's regional opposition, and his cardio and grappling defense against UFC-level wrestlers.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard I could not establish verified weigh-in outcomes or independently confirmed injury status for either fighter.

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard It remains uncertain how well Chopurov's cardio holds up against UFC-caliber resistance when forced to wrestle relentlessly for three full rounds, and how much Thicknesse's defensive grappling has progressed since his recent bouts.

Who wins the striking, and who wins the grappling?

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Chopurov should win the striking on power and finishing instincts; grappling is closer, with Thicknesse's UFC experience giving him a slight edge.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard I lean Chopurov in striking for the greater damage threat, though the technical gap is less clear. I also favor his grappling through stronger positional pressure and back attacks.

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Chopurov should win the striking due to his explosive power punishing Thicknesse's lunging entries, and he should dominate the grappling through superior sambo chain wrestling and dangerous back takes.

Who is better late in the fight?

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Thicknesse is the safer bet late thanks to UFC experience and decision durability, but Chopurov is favored overall if he finds a finish earlier.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard I still lean Chopurov later if his control is accumulating fatigue. Thicknesse becomes more competitive if he reaches the final round without spending long stretches underneath.

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Chopurov remains favored late due to accumulated top control damage, though Thicknesse's proven three-round durability gives him his best chance to edge rounds late if the pace stays high on the feet.

Biggest danger for Thicknesse, and for Chopurov

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Thicknesse: eating early heavy shots that end the fight before his grinding game starts. Chopurov: a debut-night stumble against a veteran who can wrestle and push pace into deeper rounds.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Thicknesse's biggest danger is conceding his back while trying to stand under pressure. Chopurov's biggest danger is spending too much energy chasing an early finish and allowing Thicknesse to take over the pace.

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard For Thicknesse, the biggest danger is lunging into a heavy counter strike or exposing his neck during a frantic scramble to escape bottom position. For Chopurov, the biggest danger is burning through his gas tank hunting an early finish and getting outworked on volume in the later frames.

Compared with others 5 questions

Where does this model differ from the others?

  • Claude

    Biggest difference: Chopurov by submission in round 1, 3% here against 13% on average for the others.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Biggest difference: Chopurov by submission in round 1, 16% here against 7% on average for the others.

  • Gemini

    Biggest difference: Chopurov by decision, 33% here against 20% on average for the others.

How does it compare with analyst picks?

  • Claude

    Of 46 analyst picks, 10 back Thicknesse and 36 back Chopurov. This model picks Chopurov (64%).

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Of 46 analyst picks, 10 back Thicknesse and 36 back Chopurov. This model picks Chopurov (79%).

  • Gemini

    Of 46 analyst picks, 10 back Thicknesse and 36 back Chopurov. This model picks Chopurov (81%).

Which model is most confident on Thicknesse, and which on Chopurov?

  • Claude

    On Thicknesse: Claude (35%). On Chopurov: Gemini (81%).

Where do the models disagree most?

  • Claude

    Chopurov by decision: from 18% (Claude) to 33% (Gemini).

Which analyst agrees most with this model?

  • Claude

    Fight Productions (Chopurov by KO/TKO in round 1), Greedo Plays MMA (Chopurov by KO/TKO in round 1) and Aniki MMA (Chopurov by KO/TKO in round 1): the same winner, method and round as this model, tied; this model favours Chopurov, most likely by KO/TKO (likeliest round 1).

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Tom Feely (Chopurov by submission in round 1): the same winner, method and round as this model; this model favours Chopurov, most likely by submission (likeliest round 1).

  • Gemini

    Chris Schweppe (Chopurov by decision), Fight Genie (Claude) (Chopurov by decision), Fight Genie (GPT) (Chopurov by decision), KingofCrackdown5095 (Chopurov by decision), Brandon K (Chopurov by decision), Voice of MMA (Chopurov by decision) and Mate Bersenadze (Chopurov by decision): the same winner and method as this model, tied; this model favours Chopurov, most likely by decision.

How sure 5 questions

How good has this model been?

  • Claude

    It picked the winner in 61 of 101 settled fights (60%). Draws, no contests and even forecasts are left out.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    It picked the winner in 63 of 108 settled fights (58%). Draws, no contests and even forecasts are left out.

  • Gemini

    It picked the winner in 68 of 108 settled fights (63%). Draws, no contests and even forecasts are left out.

When was this forecast made, and by which model version?

  • Claude

    On 23 Oct 2026, by claude-sonnet-5-5.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    On 23 Oct 2026, by gpt-6-astra.

  • Gemini

    On 23 Oct 2026, by a model version the provider did not report.

What can't the model know?

  • FightCard

    Models research public information before the fight, such as records, styles, recent results and coverage. They cannot see inside training camps, injuries nobody has reported, or what happens on the night. A small chance is not no chance: outcomes the model rates at a few percent still happen, and big favourites lose sometimes.

How is "confidence" worked out?

  • FightCard

    Confidence restates the favourite's win chance on a 10-step scale: the win chance in tens, rounded, so 55% is 6 of 10 and 95% or more is 10 of 10. 1 to 3 reads Low, 4 to 6 Medium and 7 to 10 High. A favourite usually has at least half the chance, so most picks show 5 or more. When the model has the fighters exactly even, there is no pick and no confidence level. It is not a separate judgement by the model.

What counts as a KO, a decision or a draw?

  • FightCard

    KO/TKO includes referee, doctor and corner stoppages, and disqualifications. A decision includes a fight stopped early and scored on the judges' cards. A stoppage between rounds counts as a finish in the round that just ended. A draw and a no contest share one outcome.

After the fight 2 questions

Which model was closest?

  • Claude

    Claude, which gave the actual result 18%.

Was the actual result in this model's top 3?

  • Claude

    Yes.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    No.

  • Gemini

    No.

claude-sonnet-5-5 · 23 Oct61 of 101 winner picks correct · 60% hit rate

Gemini

Pick

Chopurov

Confidence 8 of 10 · High

Most likely: Chopurov by decision, about 33 in 100

Win chance: Thicknesse 18%, Chopurov 81%, draw or no contest 2%.

Most likely outcomes

  1. Chopurov by decision33%

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Chopurov brings relentless forward pressure and superior sambo grappling against an opponent who has struggled to defend takedowns. Thicknesse has proven durability across full three-round bouts, making a distance win very likely.

  2. Chopurov by KO/TKO25%

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Chopurov possesses explosive knockout power and heavy ground strikes that have stopped top regional veterans early. His aggressive entries can exploit defensive openings when Thicknesse lunges in striking exchanges.

  3. Chopurov by submission23%

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Chopurov is an opportunistic finisher on the mat with multiple rear-naked choke victories in championship competition. His chain wrestling should create frequent back-exposure opportunities during scrambles.

When and how it ends
  1. Round 1: Thicknesse KO/TKO 2%, submission 1%; Chopurov KO/TKO 11%, submission 10%.
  2. Round 2: Thicknesse KO/TKO 1%, submission 1%; Chopurov KO/TKO 8%, submission 8%.
  3. Round 3: Thicknesse KO/TKO 1%, submission 1%; Chopurov KO/TKO 6%, submission 6%.
  4. Decision: Thicknesse 12%; Chopurov 33%.

Draw or no contest: 2%

Decision columns are drawn cut short so the rounds stay readable; their printed values are exact.

Show every outcome as a table
Every outcome in Gemini's forecast, in percent
OutcomeR1R2R3Decision
Thicknesse KO/TKO2%1%1%—
Thicknesse Submission1%1%1%—
Thicknesse Decision———12%
Chopurov KO/TKO11%8%6%—
Chopurov Submission10%8%6%—
Chopurov Decision———33%
Draw or no contest2%

Questions

The result 8 questions

Who wins, and how likely?

  • Gemini

    Chopurov: 81% (about 81 in 100 fights). Thicknesse: 18%. Draw or no contest: 2%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Chopurov: 79% (about 79 in 100 fights). Thicknesse: 20%. Draw or no contest: 1%.

  • Claude

    Chopurov: 64% (about 64 in 100 fights). Thicknesse: 35%. Draw or no contest: 2%.

What is the single most likely outcome?

  • Gemini

    Chopurov by decision: 33% (about 33 in 100).

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Chopurov by submission: 32% (about 32 in 100).

  • Claude

    Chopurov by KO/TKO: 38% (about 38 in 100).

What are the three most likely outcomes, and why?

  • Gemini

    1. Chopurov by decision (33%); 2. Chopurov by KO/TKO (25%); 3. Chopurov by submission (23%)

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard
    • Chopurov by decision: Chopurov brings relentless forward pressure and superior sambo grappling against an opponent who has struggled to defend takedowns. Thicknesse has proven durability across full three-round bouts, making a distance win very likely.
    • Chopurov by KO/TKO: Chopurov possesses explosive knockout power and heavy ground strikes that have stopped top regional veterans early. His aggressive entries can exploit defensive openings when Thicknesse lunges in striking exchanges.
    • Chopurov by submission: Chopurov is an opportunistic finisher on the mat with multiple rear-naked choke victories in championship competition. His chain wrestling should create frequent back-exposure opportunities during scrambles.
Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    1. Chopurov by submission (32%); 2. Chopurov by KO/TKO (25%); 3. Chopurov by decision (22%)

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard
    • Chopurov by submission: I expect Chopurov's takedowns and positional pressure to create back-taking opportunities as Thicknesse tries to stand. A choke is his clearest finishing route.
    • Chopurov by KO/TKO: Chopurov's heavier offense could hurt Thicknesse during entries or produce a stoppage through ground strikes if defensive scrambles become exhausting.
    • Chopurov by decision: Thicknesse's defensive grappling and resilience could deny a finish while still leaving Chopurov ahead through control and more damaging exchanges.

  • Claude

    1. Chopurov by KO/TKO (38%); 2. Thicknesse by decision (18%); 2. Chopurov by decision (18%)

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard
    • Chopurov by KO/TKO: Chopurov has finished most of his wins, including a first-round KO, and has more power than Thicknesse can safely absorb.
    • Chopurov by decision: Thicknesse is durable and experienced enough to last, with Chopurov winning on cleaner striking.
    • Thicknesse by decision: Thicknesse could grind out rounds if Chopurov struggles with the UFC step up.
How confident is the model?

  • Gemini

    8 of 10, based on Chopurov's 81% win chance.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    8 of 10, based on Chopurov's 79% win chance.

  • Claude

    6 of 10, based on Chopurov's 64% win chance.

Does it end early or go to the judges?

  • Gemini

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 54%. Decision: 45%. Draw or no contest: 2%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 63%. Decision: 36%. Draw or no contest: 1%.

  • Claude

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 62%. Decision: 37%. Draw or no contest: 2%.

How does Thicknesse win?

  • Gemini

    Thicknesse wins 18%: KO/TKO 4%, submission 3%, decision 12%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Thicknesse wins 20%: KO/TKO 2%, submission 4%, decision 14%.

  • Claude

    Thicknesse wins 35%: KO/TKO 12%, submission 5%, decision 18%.

How does Chopurov win?

  • Gemini

    Chopurov wins 81%: KO/TKO 25%, submission 23%, decision 33%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Chopurov wins 79%: KO/TKO 25%, submission 32%, decision 22%.

  • Claude

    Chopurov wins 64%: KO/TKO 38%, submission 8%, decision 18%.

The fight in one sentence

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Asaf Chopurov should use his relentless forward pressure, superior sambo grappling, and heavy top control to wear down Colby Thicknesse for a clear decision or opportunistic finish.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Chopurov should impose the stronger wrestling and heavier offense, with a submission the likeliest finish if Thicknesse cannot escape bottom position.

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Chopurov, an undefeated finisher making his debut, likely pressures and wins by stoppage or decision against the tougher-tested but limited Thicknesse.

Timing 1 question

Which round is most likely to end it?

  • Gemini

    If it ends early, round 1 is most likely (44% of finishes). Chance of a round-1 finish overall: 24%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    If it ends early, round 1 is most likely (47% of finishes). Chance of a round-1 finish overall: 30%.

  • Claude

    If it ends early, round 1 is most likely (40% of finishes). Chance of a round-1 finish overall: 25%.

What if 3 questions

If it gets past round 1, what changes?

  • Gemini

    If it gets past round 1: Thicknesse 20% (from 18%), Chopurov 78% (from 81%).

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Once past the opening frame, Chopurov's early knockout and submission threat shifts toward a grueling positional grind. Thicknesse's proven three-round durability allows him to stay competitive in extended exchanges if he avoids getting pinned underneath.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    If it gets past round 1: Thicknesse 26% (from 20%), Chopurov 73% (from 79%).

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Surviving the opening round gives Thicknesse more opportunities to settle into a measured pace. Chopurov can still build toward a finish through repeated takedowns and tiring scrambles.

  • Claude

    If it gets past round 1: Thicknesse 39% (from 35%), Chopurov 59% (from 64%).

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard If Thicknesse survives the opening round, the fight becomes more of a grind where his durability and pace can make it competitive, while Chopurov's output and finishing urgency may fade somewhat.

What is the upset path?

  • Gemini

    Thicknesse's most likely upset: Thicknesse by decision (12%).

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Colby Thicknesse is most likely to win by stuffing takedown entries, keeping the fight at kicking range, and outworking a tiring Chopurov over three full rounds to take a decision.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Thicknesse's most likely upset: Thicknesse by decision (14%).

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Thicknesse needs to deny sustained top control, make Chopurov reset at distance, and win rounds through cleaner activity. His strongest route is a disciplined decision rather than trading power.

  • Claude

    Thicknesse's most likely upset: Thicknesse by decision (18%).

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Thicknesse drags Chopurov into a grinding clinch and wrestling fight, tests his debut-night cardio, and banks rounds on volume and control.

What is each fighter's best path to victory?

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Chopurov's best path is pressuring forward to secure chain takedowns, wearing Thicknesse down with heavy ground strikes while hunting for rear-naked chokes in scrambles. Thicknesse's best path is using constant footwork and volume striking to stay off the fence, forcing Chopurov to work at an uncomfortable pace across fifteen minutes.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Thicknesse should use movement, straight punches and quick exits to keep exchanges brief and preserve energy for takedown defense. Chopurov should pressure into clinches, establish top position and attack the back during escapes.

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Thicknesse: use pressure, wrestling and cage control to take Chopurov into deeper rounds and win on volume. Chopurov: land early power and finish before Thicknesse can settle in.

What to watch 1 question

What should I watch for early?

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Watch how easily Chopurov closes the distance when Thicknesse lunges into striking exchanges, and whether Thicknesse can immediately scramble free from the first takedown attempt without giving up his back.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Watch whether Thicknesse can escape after the first takedown and whether his straight punches interrupt Chopurov's entries.

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Watch whether Chopurov lands clean power strikes and how Thicknesse reacts, and whether Thicknesse manages to close distance for takedowns or clinches.

Compared with others 1 question

Do the models agree?

  • Gemini

    The models agree: all 3 pick Chopurov.

After the fight 2 questions

What happened vs what the model said?

  • Gemini

    Result: Thicknesse by decision, the model's number 4 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Chopurov by decision (33%).

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Result: Thicknesse by decision, the model's number 4 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Chopurov by submission (32%).

  • Claude

    Result: Thicknesse by decision, the model's joint number 2 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Chopurov by KO/TKO (38%).

How much chance did it give the actual result?

  • Gemini

    12% (about 12 in 100).

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    14% (about 14 in 100).

  • Claude

    18% (about 18 in 100).

More questions (37)

The result 10 questions

KO/TKO vs submission vs decision overall

  • Gemini

    KO/TKO 29%, submission 26%, decision 45%. Draw or no contest: 2%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    KO/TKO 27%, submission 36%, decision 36%. Draw or no contest: 1%.

  • Claude

    KO/TKO 49%, submission 12%, decision 37%. Draw or no contest: 2%.

Chance of a draw or no contest

  • Gemini

    2%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    1%.

Who is more likely to finish the other?

  • Gemini

    Chopurov: 48%, against 6% for Thicknesse.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Chopurov: 57%, against 6% for Thicknesse.

  • Claude

    Chopurov: 45%, against 16% for Thicknesse.

Can Thicknesse get the finish? Can Chopurov?

  • Gemini

    Thicknesse: 6% (KO/TKO 4%, submission 3%). Chopurov: 48% (KO/TKO 25%, submission 23%).

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Thicknesse: 6% (KO/TKO 2%, submission 4%). Chopurov: 57% (KO/TKO 25%, submission 32%).

  • Claude

    Thicknesse: 16% (KO/TKO 12%, submission 5%). Chopurov: 45% (KO/TKO 38%, submission 8%).

Who is more likely to be knocked out, and who to be submitted?

  • Gemini

    Thicknesse is knocked out in 25% and submitted in 23%. Chopurov is knocked out in 4% and submitted in 3%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Thicknesse is knocked out in 25% and submitted in 32%. Chopurov is knocked out in 2% and submitted in 4%.

  • Claude

    Thicknesse is knocked out in 38% and submitted in 8%. Chopurov is knocked out in 12% and submitted in 5%.

How lopsided is this fight?

  • Gemini

    Lopsided: 81% vs 18%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Lopsided: 79% vs 20%.

  • Claude

    Lopsided: 64% vs 35%.

Each fighter's single most likely way to win

  • Gemini

    Thicknesse by decision: 12%. Chopurov by decision: 33%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Thicknesse by decision: 14%. Chopurov by decision: 22%.

  • Claude

    Thicknesse by decision: 18%. Chopurov by decision: 18%.

How big an upset would it be if the underdog wins?

  • Gemini

    Thicknesse wins 18% (about 1 in 6 fights): a big upset.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Thicknesse wins 20% (about 1 in 5 fights): a big upset.

  • Claude

    Thicknesse wins 35% (about 1 in 3 fights): a big upset.

How does this fight rank on the card (closest, most likely to end early)?

  • Gemini

    Among 14 of 14 fights on the card with a forecast from this model: the 14th closest, and the 6th most likely to end early.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Among 14 of 14 fights on the card with a forecast from this model: the 13th closest, and the 6th most likely to end early.

  • Claude

    Among 14 of 14 fights on the card with a forecast from this model: the 11th closest, and the 4th most likely to end early.

Is this fight worth watching?

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Yes, this bout showcases a clash between Chopurov's explosive sambo-based pressure and Thicknesse's gritty three-round durability and high-volume pace.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Yes, this is an intriguing test of an aggressive newcomer against a resilient, technically capable opponent.

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Yes, a fun prospect test: an undefeated, hyped debutant against a gritty UFC veteran who will push the pace.

Timing 6 questions

Chance it ends in round 1

  • Gemini

    24%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    30%.

  • Claude

    25%.

Chance it is over by round 2

  • Gemini

    41%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    50%.

  • Claude

    48%.

Chance it goes to a decision

  • Gemini

    45%. Draw or no contest: 2%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    36%. Draw or no contest: 1%.

  • Claude

    37%. Draw or no contest: 2%.

Chance of a finish in the final round

  • Gemini

    Round 3: 13%.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Round 3: 14%.

If it ends early (rounds 1–2), is it more likely a KO or a submission?

  • Gemini

    Of early finishes: KO/TKO 52%, submission 48%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Of early finishes: KO/TKO 43%, submission 57%.

  • Claude

    Of early finishes: KO/TKO 81%, submission 19%.

Who is favoured in a short fight vs a long one?

  • Gemini

    If it ends in rounds 1–2: Chopurov 89%. If it goes longer: Chopurov 77%. Chance to win in rounds 1–2: Thicknesse 5%, Chopurov 37%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    If it ends in rounds 1–2: Chopurov 92%. If it goes longer: Chopurov 67%. Chance to win in rounds 1–2: Thicknesse 4%, Chopurov 46%.

  • Claude

    If it ends in rounds 1–2: Chopurov 75%. If it goes longer: Chopurov 55%. Chance to win in rounds 1–2: Thicknesse 12%, Chopurov 36%.

What if 2 questions

If it goes to the judges, who wins?

  • Gemini

    If it goes to the judges: Thicknesse 26%, Chopurov 74%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    If it goes to the judges: Thicknesse 39%, Chopurov 61%.

  • Claude

    If it goes to the judges: Thicknesse 50%, Chopurov 50%.

What could make this fight one-sided?

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Chopurov's superior sambo wrestling and top control could make this fight completely one-sided in his favor if Thicknesse cannot stop the initial takedown entries or build his base back to the feet.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Chopurov could dominate if his first takedowns produce prolonged control. That would force Thicknesse to spend his energy defending instead of building offense.

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Chopurov landing early power and overwhelming Thicknesse would make it one-sided; the quality of his regional opposition is uncertain.

What to watch 7 questions

What is the key matchup edge?

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Chopurov holds the most important edge with his relentless chain wrestling and sambo grappling against an opponent who has historically struggled to defend takedowns.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Chopurov holds the projected edge in imposing and maintaining top position, which could neutralize much of Thicknesse's own grappling offense.

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Chopurov's finishing power and sharper striking against Thicknesse's more modest striking defense.

What is the biggest X-factor?

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Thicknesse's toughness and championship-camp conditioning could become a major factor if he forces Chopurov to expend too much energy chasing an early finish.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard The biggest uncertainty is how comfortably Chopurov can impose his regional success against a durable opponent with UFC experience.

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Chopurov's UFC debut adjustment: Abu Dhabi stage, step up in opposition and unproven cardio against elite-level pressure.

What would change the model's mind?

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Evidence that Thicknesse has significantly closed his takedown defense gaps or that Chopurov struggles to maintain his aggressive grappling pace past the first round would change the outlook.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Consistent early takedown defense and clean exits from Thicknesse would substantially narrow my lean. Chopurov struggling to maintain his pace after failed entries would also matter.

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Strong early takedown success by Thicknesse, or evidence Chopurov struggles with the step up or weight cut, would move me toward Thicknesse.

What are the biggest unknowns?

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard It remains uncertain how well Chopurov's cardio holds up against UFC-caliber resistance when forced to wrestle relentlessly for three full rounds, and how much Thicknesse's defensive grappling has progressed since his recent bouts.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard I could not establish verified weigh-in outcomes or independently confirmed injury status for either fighter.

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard The true quality of Chopurov's regional opposition, and his cardio and grappling defense against UFC-level wrestlers.

Who wins the striking, and who wins the grappling?

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Chopurov should win the striking due to his explosive power punishing Thicknesse's lunging entries, and he should dominate the grappling through superior sambo chain wrestling and dangerous back takes.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard I lean Chopurov in striking for the greater damage threat, though the technical gap is less clear. I also favor his grappling through stronger positional pressure and back attacks.

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Chopurov should win the striking on power and finishing instincts; grappling is closer, with Thicknesse's UFC experience giving him a slight edge.

Who is better late in the fight?

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Chopurov remains favored late due to accumulated top control damage, though Thicknesse's proven three-round durability gives him his best chance to edge rounds late if the pace stays high on the feet.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard I still lean Chopurov later if his control is accumulating fatigue. Thicknesse becomes more competitive if he reaches the final round without spending long stretches underneath.

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Thicknesse is the safer bet late thanks to UFC experience and decision durability, but Chopurov is favored overall if he finds a finish earlier.

Biggest danger for Thicknesse, and for Chopurov

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard For Thicknesse, the biggest danger is lunging into a heavy counter strike or exposing his neck during a frantic scramble to escape bottom position. For Chopurov, the biggest danger is burning through his gas tank hunting an early finish and getting outworked on volume in the later frames.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Thicknesse's biggest danger is conceding his back while trying to stand under pressure. Chopurov's biggest danger is spending too much energy chasing an early finish and allowing Thicknesse to take over the pace.

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Thicknesse: eating early heavy shots that end the fight before his grinding game starts. Chopurov: a debut-night stumble against a veteran who can wrestle and push pace into deeper rounds.

Compared with others 5 questions

Where does this model differ from the others?

  • Gemini

    Biggest difference: Chopurov by decision, 33% here against 20% on average for the others.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Biggest difference: Chopurov by submission in round 1, 16% here against 7% on average for the others.

  • Claude

    Biggest difference: Chopurov by submission in round 1, 3% here against 13% on average for the others.

How does it compare with analyst picks?

  • Gemini

    Of 46 analyst picks, 10 back Thicknesse and 36 back Chopurov. This model picks Chopurov (81%).

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Of 46 analyst picks, 10 back Thicknesse and 36 back Chopurov. This model picks Chopurov (79%).

  • Claude

    Of 46 analyst picks, 10 back Thicknesse and 36 back Chopurov. This model picks Chopurov (64%).

Which model is most confident on Thicknesse, and which on Chopurov?

  • Gemini

    On Thicknesse: Claude (35%). On Chopurov: Gemini (81%).

Where do the models disagree most?

  • Gemini

    Chopurov by decision: from 18% (Claude) to 33% (Gemini).

Which analyst agrees most with this model?

  • Gemini

    Chris Schweppe (Chopurov by decision), Fight Genie (Claude) (Chopurov by decision), Fight Genie (GPT) (Chopurov by decision), KingofCrackdown5095 (Chopurov by decision), Brandon K (Chopurov by decision), Voice of MMA (Chopurov by decision) and Mate Bersenadze (Chopurov by decision): the same winner and method as this model, tied; this model favours Chopurov, most likely by decision.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Tom Feely (Chopurov by submission in round 1): the same winner, method and round as this model; this model favours Chopurov, most likely by submission (likeliest round 1).

  • Claude

    Fight Productions (Chopurov by KO/TKO in round 1), Greedo Plays MMA (Chopurov by KO/TKO in round 1) and Aniki MMA (Chopurov by KO/TKO in round 1): the same winner, method and round as this model, tied; this model favours Chopurov, most likely by KO/TKO (likeliest round 1).

How sure 5 questions

How good has this model been?

  • Gemini

    It picked the winner in 68 of 108 settled fights (63%). Draws, no contests and even forecasts are left out.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    It picked the winner in 63 of 108 settled fights (58%). Draws, no contests and even forecasts are left out.

  • Claude

    It picked the winner in 61 of 101 settled fights (60%). Draws, no contests and even forecasts are left out.

When was this forecast made, and by which model version?

  • Gemini

    On 23 Oct 2026, by a model version the provider did not report.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    On 23 Oct 2026, by gpt-6-astra.

  • Claude

    On 23 Oct 2026, by claude-sonnet-5-5.

What can't the model know?

  • FightCard

    Models research public information before the fight, such as records, styles, recent results and coverage. They cannot see inside training camps, injuries nobody has reported, or what happens on the night. A small chance is not no chance: outcomes the model rates at a few percent still happen, and big favourites lose sometimes.

How is "confidence" worked out?

  • FightCard

    Confidence restates the favourite's win chance on a 10-step scale: the win chance in tens, rounded, so 55% is 6 of 10 and 95% or more is 10 of 10. 1 to 3 reads Low, 4 to 6 Medium and 7 to 10 High. A favourite usually has at least half the chance, so most picks show 5 or more. When the model has the fighters exactly even, there is no pick and no confidence level. It is not a separate judgement by the model.

What counts as a KO, a decision or a draw?

  • FightCard

    KO/TKO includes referee, doctor and corner stoppages, and disqualifications. A decision includes a fight stopped early and scored on the judges' cards. A stoppage between rounds counts as a finish in the round that just ended. A draw and a no contest share one outcome.

After the fight 2 questions

Which model was closest?

  • Gemini

    Claude, which gave the actual result 18%.

Was the actual result in this model's top 3?

  • Gemini

    No.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Yes.

Version not reported · 23 Oct68 of 108 winner picks correct · 63% hit rate

AI-generated · Not betting advice · 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-MY-RESET

Market Odds

How the market called it — the final pre-fight line against the result, not betting advice.

Market read · 6 sportsbooks

18% Colby Thicknesse
82% Asaf Chopurov

Favoured: Chopurov (82%) Upset

Thicknesse defeats Chopurov · Dec

Final pre-fight line · as of 24 Oct 13:30 UTC · 6 sportsbooks · Not betting advice · 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-MY-RESET

Independent fan-made fight recap. Not affiliated with, endorsed by, or sponsored by the UFC or any other MMA promotion. Analysis is editorial opinion, not betting advice. Fighter names and records are used for commentary. Image credits · Methodology · Privacy · Terms.