Fight analyst and host of The Mike Finch Show, also appearing on MMA EXPERTS' The Moneyline for UFC betting breakdowns.
Scorecard
Called 30 of 49 resolved picks — every call traced to its source, no bare percentage. How Track Record works.
- Winner 30 19
- Method 13 6
- Round 1 1
- Underdog 4 7
Hit Miss
The running record
Every figure below is cumulative — computed over all resolved calls up to and including each card, never one card on its own. A cumulative rate settles as the denominator grows, so its flattening is arithmetic, not a verdict: read where a line sits, and read the vs. the field strip for whether this analyst gained or lost ground on the rest of the roster. Winner is scored on every resolved call; method, round and underdog each have a different and much smaller base, printed beside each one.
Hit Miss Field median Gap to the field
Mike Finch scored 68.8 after 5 cards, against a ranked field spanning 59.7 to 92.5. Also plotted: TheWeasle (#1), Michael Chiesa (#13), MMAPREDICTIONGURU (#15). Against the median of the other 17 ranked analysts they finished 6.3 below, from 3.5 below at UFC 329.
68.8 now, across 5 cards. The first 1 card is drawn dashed and hollow: below 20 resolved calls there is no published score yet. The shaded band is where the whole ranked field sits — 59.7 to 92.5 across 18 analysts, this one included.
30 of 49 — 61% now, from 57% at their first scored card.
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Method
68% 13 of 19 correct winners that named a method
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Round
1 of 2 correct winners that named a round — too few to chart a trend.
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Underdog
36% 4 of 11 priced underdog calls
The opening points are drawn dashed and hollow: below 5 scored calls this rate is not yet a reliable figure.
Card by card
Newest card first — the charts above run oldest to newest. One mark per scored call, hits above the line and misses below. Every call is listed in Call History, below.
- Hooker vs. Parnasse 68.8 7 hit · 6 miss
- Gamrot vs. Salkilld 71.2 3 hit · 1 miss
- Du Plessis vs. Usman 70.0 7 hit · 5 miss
- UFC 329 76.4 9 hit · 4 miss
- UFC Freedom 250 64.3 4 hit · 3 miss
Call History
Every logged call, grouped by event, scored on Winner, Method, and Round — nothing about a result ever sits behind a click.
underdog pick favourite pick — shown only for picks with a known pre-fight price. The percentage is the chance the market gave the fighter this analyst picked. Open a row for the price’s source and the credit it earned.
Hooker vs. Parnasse
Event scorecard
- Winner 7 6
- Method 4 1
- Round 1
- Underdog 1 1
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aljarouj · KO/TKO | Sintes · Dec | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Rates Aljarouj's explosiveness and energy management well above Sintes' unconvincing jiu-jitsu. “This dude is a firework. I think he's going off KO.” | |||||
| Montenegro · to win | Benouaich · Sub R2 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Leans on Montenegro's height, bullying potential and durability over Benouaich's more technical but less imposing game, while calling it close to a coinflip. “Very slight lean to Sophia Montenegro, but um man, it's a it's a tough ladies fight to call.” | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 76.6%. Campbell · Sub | Campbell · Sub R3 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Trusts Campbell's jiu-jitsu and live submission threat against an inactive, weight-dropping Peek. “I'm going Pink Panther. Pink Panther.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 76.6% before the fight, from the pre-event sportsbook consensus frozen before the fight. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Lima · Dec | Lima · Dec | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Prefers Lima's tighter kickboxing and grappling to Charriere's chaotic, high-power but less technical style. “But um I'm going to say Lima decision.” | |||||
| Syguła · Dec | Cornolle · Dec | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Favours Sygula's youth and upgraded camp against Cornolle's shoulder-injury layoff and shaky recent form. “So, yeah, man. I think Saigula game to give her a bit of a technical MMA lesson here.” | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 67.4%. Donchenko · KO/TKO | Donchenko · Dec | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
Cites Donchenko's varied, heavy striking and body work as too much for Soriano. “Man, I like Denil Donchenko knockout.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 67.4% before the fight, from the pre-event sportsbook consensus frozen before the fight. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Dias · Sub | Duclos · KO/TKO R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Takes Dias for his grappling advantage and physicality, predicting a club-and-submission finish. “I'M GOING WITH THE POWER PUNCHER.” | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 80.8%. Parnasse · to win | Parnasse · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Rates Parnasse's grappling and clean striking too much for a fading Hooker and expects a finish, without calling which kind. “It's tough to say. So the the real pick here is Parnas and it won't go 25 minutes.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 80.8% before the fight, from the pre-event sportsbook consensus frozen before the fight. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 76.3%. Keita · KO/TKO | Keita · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Rates Keita's finishing power and kicking above Naimov's more generalist, decision-leaning game. “Lucin Keith is going to hurt you bad. I gotta think Muhammad Naimov is a test for him, but Lucin Kea knockout.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 76.3% before the fight, from the pre-event sportsbook consensus frozen before the fight. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 34.9%. Ruziboev · Sub | Page · Dec | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Leans on Ruziboev's reach, wrestling and superior submission game to collar Page and finish him. “I think Nurultan Rousey Boev 6'5 is going to be able to get a hold of Michael Venom Page and submit him. I got Ruseie Bov sub.” Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 34.9% before the fight, from the pre-event sportsbook consensus frozen before the fight. Underdog credit earned: 0.00 — credit is earned only on a correct call. | |||||
| Pinto · KO/TKO · R3 | Pinto · KO/TKO R2 | Hit | Hit | Miss | |
Expects Pinto's speed, boxing and cardio to wear down a Spann who fades after round one. “With that being said, Mario Pinto, third round TKO.” | |||||
| Wood · to win | Andrusca · Dec | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
On a bout added hours before the show, leans on Wood's body of work and level of competition against an unfamiliar late replacement. “So, just uh on a one minute tape study, I'll go with Nathaniel Wood just for the hell of the show.” | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 41.9%. Sola · to win | Sola · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Points to Sola's post-Mason Jones improvement, reach and finishing intent as reasons to back the live underdog. “I'M GOING AXEL SOLA. I'M KIND OF ON the Axel Sola train, bro.” Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 41.9% before the fight, from the pre-event sportsbook consensus frozen before the fight. Underdog credit earned: 0.16 — (50% − 41.9%) ÷ 50%. | |||||
Gamrot vs. Salkilld
Event scorecard
- Winner 3 1
- Method 1 1
- RoundCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog 1
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Favourite call, market price 59.5%. Nurgozhay · KO/TKO | Nurgozhay · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Takes Nurgozhay by knockout. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 59.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 27.5%. Pat · Dec | Asplund · Dec | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Takes Pat in a close decision. Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 27.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Underdog credit earned: 0.00 — credit is earned only on a correct call. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 75.5%. Sousa · KO/TKO | Sousa · Dec | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
Takes Sousa by knockout. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 75.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Miller · to win | Miller · Sub R2 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Takes Miller without naming a method. | |||||
Du Plessis vs. Usman
Event scorecard
- Winner 7 5
- Method 3
- RoundCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog 2 2
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Underdog call, market price 35.1%. Usman · to win | Du Plessis · Dec | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Backs Usman's chain wrestling and control after questioning Du Plessis' defensive wrestling against a disciplined opponent. Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 35.1% before the fight, from the pre-event sportsbook consensus frozen before the fight. Underdog credit earned: 0.00 — credit is earned only on a correct call. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 74.8%. Duncan · KO/TKO | Duncan · Dec | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
Calls Duncan by knockout, rating the younger fighter's finishing tools and momentum above Cannonier's current form. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 74.8% before the fight, from the pre-event sportsbook consensus frozen before the fight. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 83.5%. Barbosa · to win | Barbosa · Sub R1 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Expects Barbosa's UFC experience and grappling to overwhelm the debuting Melisano on the mat. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 83.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 49.5%. Harris · to win | Harris · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Joins the Harris side, believing the taller prospect has the faster and harder-hitting tools against Hines. Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 49.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Underdog credit earned: 0.01 — (50% − 49.5%) ÷ 50%. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 88.5%. Coria · KO/TKO | Coria · Dec | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
Expects Coria's well-rounded edge to become a stoppage against the outmatched Nicoll. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 88.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 58.5%. Rodrigues Jr. · KO/TKO | Franco · KO/TKO R2 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Picks Rodrigues by knockout, seeing his speed and danger as the better side in a volatile matchup. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 58.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 55.5%. Bashi · Sub | Delgado · Dec | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Picks Bashi to secure a rear-naked choke after stressing Delgado's unresolved grappling defense. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 55.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 81.5%. Kline · to win | Kline · Dec | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Takes Kline to win, agreeing she is the more reliable side while declining to call a method. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 81.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 35.1%. Montes · Sub | McMillen · KO/TKO R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Calls Montes by submission, leaning on the quality of his front-headlock game. Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 35.1% before the fight, from the pre-event sportsbook consensus frozen before the fight. Underdog credit earned: 0.00 — credit is earned only on a correct call. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 75.2%. Hooper · to win | Hooper · Sub R1 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Takes Hooper as the pure pick because of his grappling edge, while acknowledging the recent knockout losses make the price unappealing. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 75.2% before the fight, from the pre-event sportsbook consensus frozen before the fight. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 39.5%. Lebosnoyani · Sub | Lebosnoyani · Dec | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
Calls the underdog Lebosnoyani by submission, pointing to the local prospect's high-level grappling and triangle/armbar threats. Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 39.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Underdog credit earned: 0.21 — (50% − 39.5%) ÷ 50%. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 52.5%. Anderson · Sub | Elliot · Dec | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Picks Anderson by submission, arguing that Elliot repeatedly shoots and is likely to run into Anderson's more advanced jiu-jitsu. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 52.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
UFC 329
McGregor vs. Holloway 2
Event scorecard
- Winner 9 4
- Method 6
- Round 1
- Underdog 1 2
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Favourite call, market price 71.5%. Holloway · KO/TKO | Holloway · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Gives McGregor the power edge, but thinks the five-year layoff, timing gap and Holloway's cardio and mobility are too much. He expects Holloway to turn volume into a later-round stoppage. “I'm going Max Blessed Holloway.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 71.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 57.5%. Sandhagen · Dec | Bautista · Dec | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Says Bautista lacks the clear wrestling advantage needed to blunt Sandhagen. He trusts Sandhagen's schedule, submission grappling and ability to win two of three rounds in the big cage. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 57.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 68.5%. Kavanagh · Dec | Royval · Sub R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Trusts Kavanagh's cardio, energy management and cleaner striking after the Moreno fight. He thinks Royval is durable enough to avoid the finish, but not sharp enough to win the minutes. “I got Kavanagh decision.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 68.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 89.5%. Steveson · KO/TKO · R1 | Steveson · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Hit | Hit | |
Tried to find an Ellison upset angle, but could not get there. He trusts Steveson's wrestling base, camp, confidence and ground-and-pound to overwhelm Ellison early. “Gable Stevenson gets him out of there in the first round.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 89.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 53.5%. Whittaker · KO/TKO | Whittaker · KO/TKO R3 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Questions Whittaker's size at 205, but still thinks his mobility, jab, technique and speed are a league above Krylov. He does not see Krylov's grappling offsetting that edge. “I'm gonna say Rob Whitaker knockout.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 53.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 46.5%. Cortez · Dec | Wang · Dec | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Backs Cortez's grappling route. He expects her to force clinches and takedowns often enough to blunt Wang Cong's striking and grind out a decision. “Give me Tracy Cortez and I think a decision is likely.” Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 46.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Underdog credit earned: 0.00 — credit is earned only on a correct call. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 69.5%. Riley · to win | Riley · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Likes Riley as the more consequential striker. He respects Kamaka's technical layers and cardio, but thinks Riley's power, damage and late-round push make him a bad matchup. “Give me Luke Riley.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 69.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 77.5%. Yañez · KO/TKO | Yañez · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Backs Yanez's speed, activity and pressure against Garbrandt's recent body of work. He expects Yanez to stay on him until the damage piles up into a stoppage. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 77.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 55.5%. Gandra · KO/TKO | Gandra · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Trusts Gandra's power and forward pressure despite defensive holes. He sees Reese as dangerous with kicks and submissions, but not the opponent to punish those openings before Gandra's heavier offense lands. “Gandra KO.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 55.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 67.5%. Costa · to win | Costa · Sub R2 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Backs Costa as the more dangerous flyweight striker and thinks Durden's return to 125 will be difficult. He sees Costa's speed and striking volume leading to a finish, but leaves the exact finish type open between club-and-sub and TKO. “Give me Costa.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 67.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 85.5%. Basharat · to win | Basharat · Dec | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Frames Basharat as close to the safest side on the card because Garza is stepping up on short notice against a proven UFC bantamweight. He expects Basharat to be better anywhere, with inside-the-distance and back-take choke paths live, but does not lock a single method. “Basharat all day.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 85.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 29.5%. Almeida · Dec | Pinas · KO/TKO R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Takes the underdog Almeida in a split-pick fight. He acknowledges Pinas as a tall task, but settles on Almeida to survive the danger and win on the cards. “Caesar Almeida via a decision.” Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 29.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Underdog credit earned: 0.00 — credit is earned only on a correct call. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 46.5%. Pimblett · Sub | Pimblett · Sub R1 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Also backs Pimblett as the live underdog. He thinks Saint Denis' pressure can create the exact scrambles where Pimblett's dangerous guard and back attacks become decisive. “Patty Pimblet via submission.” Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 46.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Underdog credit earned: 0.07 — (50% − 46.5%) ÷ 50%. | |||||
UFC Freedom 250
Topuria vs. Gaethje
Event scorecard
- Winner 4 3
- Method 2 1
- RoundCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog 1
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Favourite call, market price 79.5%. Topuria · KO/TKO | Gaethje · KO/TKO R4 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Mike calls Topuria over Gaethje a major mismatch, expecting Topuria's boxing and counters to produce a knockout rather than a long fight. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 79.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 52.5%. Pereira · KO/TKO | Gane · KO/TKO R2 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Mike thinks Pereira's pressure and power are a tough stylistic problem for Gane, calling Pereira live to knock him out and later agreeing both hosts are riding with Pereira. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 52.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 77.5%. O'Malley · Dec | O'Malley · KO/TKO R2 | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
Mike agrees on O'Malley but leans away from AJ's knockout call, expecting O'Malley to touch Zahabi, move, avoid the return fire and pitch a shutout-style win. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 77.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 79.5%. Hokit · KO/TKO | Hokit · KO/TKO R2 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Mike backs Hokit as a fast-handed wrestler against an aging Lewis, expecting Hokit to wrestle, dictate where the fight happens and eventually finish with ground-and-pound. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 79.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 81.0%. Ruffy · KO/TKO | Ruffy · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Mike acknowledges Chandler's wrestling path but says Ruffy is the obvious side, expecting a highlight-reel knockout once Chandler has to cross range. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 81.0% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 24.5%. Daukaus · to win | Nickal · KO/TKO R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Mike calls Daukaus the dog he would pick on this card, arguing his striking, southpaw looks and submission danger make him a bad matchup for a Nickal who has not proven enough in MMA yet. Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 24.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Underdog credit earned: 0.00 — credit is earned only on a correct call. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 59.5%. Lopes · to win | Lopes · KO/TKO R2 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Mike gives a slight lean to Lopes despite Garcia's dangerous southpaw boxing, because Lopes has the durability and grappling edge to punish Garcia if the pressure gets wild. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 59.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
Videos
Every source clip behind Mike Finch's logged calls.