Francisco Prado vs Ismael Bonfim — Oct. 10 UFC Fight Night

Scheduled · 10 Oct 2026 UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan Allen vs. Duncan · Lightweight · Preliminary Card · 3 rounds · Las Vegas, Nevada

Francisco
Prado

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Record

Wins: 12
Losses: 5
Draws: 0

6KO/TKO

6Sub

0Dec

Red corner

12-5-0
Record: 20-7-0; Argentina
Nationality: Brazil; 24
Age: 30; 177.8 cm
Height — Prado leads: 68.00 in; 175.26 cm
Reach — Bonfim leads: 71.50 in; 3.68
Sig. strikes landed / minStr / min — Bonfim leads: 5.10; 100%
Finish rateFinish % — Prado leads: 65%

Ismael
Bonfim

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Record

Wins: 20
Losses: 7
Draws: 0

9KO/TKO

4Sub

7Dec

Blue corner

View full tale of the tape & radar (+9)

12-5-0
Record: 20-7-0; 1-4 last 5
Recent form: 1-4 last 5; Not published
Stance: Not published; 6
Wins by KO/TKOKO wins — Bonfim leads: 9; 6
Wins by submissionSub wins — Prado leads: 4; 4.31
Sig. strikes absorbed / minAbs / min — Bonfim leads: 3.96; 54%
Striking defenseStrike def. — Bonfim leads: 63%; 40%
Takedown defenseTD def. — Bonfim leads: 77%; 13:11
Avg. fight timeAvg. time: 08:46

Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Numbers reflect the fighter data snapshot used for this page. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.

At a glance

Analysts, AI and market side by side. Open a tab for the detail.

Analyst Picks14 analysts 50%7 picks 50%7 picks

AI PredictionComing soonNo forecast publishedUnavailable right now

Market OddsComing soonNo forecast publishedUnavailable right now

Analyst picks AI forecasts Market odds

What to expect

Case for Prado

Prado is 12-5-0 with six knockouts and six submissions among his 12 wins, and at 24 he is the younger fighter. He lands 3.68 significant strikes per minute and has a 0.76 submission average, which gives him more than one route to a finish. His recent form is the concern: he is 1-4 over his last five, with four straight decision losses, so the question is whether his finishing record travels to a full three rounds.

Case for Bonfim

Bonfim is 20-7-0 with nine knockouts, four submissions and seven decisions, and he lands 5.10 significant strikes per minute, the higher output of the two. His listed style is boxing, and his last win was a unanimous decision over Vinc Pichel in May 2024. He has since lost three straight by stoppage, most recently to Axel Sola by D'Arce choke in July 2026, so his durability against an opponent with 12 finishes is the open question.

What to Watch

Whether Bonfim's 5.10 strikes landed per minute out-work Prado's 3.68.
Finishing against durability: Prado has 12 stoppage wins, while Bonfim has lost his last three fights inside the distance.
Form: both fighters are 1-4 over their last five, Prado with four straight decision losses and Bonfim with three straight stoppage losses.
Whether the fight reaches the mat: Prado has six submission wins, and Bonfim was submitted by Sola in July 2026.

Analysts

Independent analyst picks — analysts, fighters and betting desks — on this fight: who they pick, how, and the exact moment they say it. Tap any clip to hear it.

(7) 50% Prado

50% (7) Bonfim

Analyst prediction scorecards

James Lynch33 resolved calls James LynchView full track record Winner Accuracy 66.7% 22 11 Method Accuracy 53.8% 7 6 Round Accuracy 0.0% 5 Underdog Accuracy 100.0% 1 How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls	Bonfim · Dec	Upcoming	Bonfim	Dec	Not called
James Lynch picks Ismael Bonfim to beat Francisco Prado by decision. The speaker adds no bet; this is a betting hedge, not a change of pick. Hear it — 10:03 James Lynch on YouTube ↗ James Lynch’s track record → Track record: winner called in 22 of 33 resolved picks, 3 a perfect call. How winner calls are counted · What a perfect call is
Marcel Dorff18 resolved calls Marcel DorffView full track record Winner Accuracy 66.7% 12 6 Method Accuracy 33.3% 2 4 Round Accuracy 25.0% 1 3 Underdog Accuracy 33.3% 1 2 How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls	Prado · KO/TKO	Upcoming	Prado	KO/TKO	Not called
Marcel Dorff picks Francisco Prado to beat Ismael Bonfim by knockout. Hear it — 12:40 Marcel Dorff’s track record → Track record: winner called in 12 of 18 resolved picks, 2 a perfect call. How winner calls are counted · What a perfect call is
Bert MMA12 resolved calls Bert MMAView full track record Winner Accuracy 66.7% 8 4 Method Accuracy 100.0% 1 Round AccuracyNamed rounds — none on a correct call yet Underdog Accuracy 100.0% 1 How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls	Bonfim · Dec	Upcoming	Bonfim	Dec	Not called
Bert MMA's card recap has Ismael Bonfim winning by decision. Hear it — 23:28 Bert MMA on YouTube ↗ Bert MMA’s track record → Track record: winner called in 8 of 12 resolved picks, 1 a perfect call. How winner calls are counted · What a perfect call is
Clenbat25 resolved calls ClenbatView full track record Winner Accuracy 64.0% 16 9 Method AccuracyNamed methods — none on a correct call yet Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round Underdog Accuracy 50.0% 1 1 How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls	Bonfim · to win	Upcoming	Bonfim	Not called	Not called
Clenbat goes with the experience and danger of Ismael Bonfim. Hear it — 6:42 Clenbat on YouTube ↗ Clenbat’s track record → Track record: winner called in 16 of 25 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Artem MMA60 resolved calls Artem MMAView full track record Winner Accuracy 61.7% 37 23 Method Accuracy 65.6% 21 11 Round Accuracy 66.7% 4 2 Underdog Accuracy 12.5% 1 7 How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls	Prado · to win	Upcoming	Prado	Not called	Not called
Artem MMA picks Francisco Prado, expecting a late finish, likely in round two or three, over Ismael Bonfim. Hear it — 16:03 Artem MMA on YouTube ↗ Artem MMA’s track record → Track record: winner called in 37 of 60 resolved picks, 20 a perfect call. How winner calls are counted · What a perfect call is
Fight Productions31 resolved calls Fight ProductionsView full track record Winner Accuracy 61.3% 19 12 Method Accuracy 73.7% 14 5 Round Accuracy 38.5% 5 8 Underdog Accuracy 33.3% 1 2 How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls	Bonfim · Dec	Upcoming	Bonfim	Dec	Not called
Fight Productions leans on skill and takes Ismael Bonfim by decision over Francisco Prado. Hear it — 19:54 Fight Productions on YouTube ↗ Fight Productions’s track record → Track record: winner called in 19 of 31 resolved picks, 9 a perfect call. How winner calls are counted · What a perfect call is
KingofCrackdown509528 resolved calls KingofCrackdown5095View full track record Winner Accuracy 60.7% 17 11 Method Accuracy 58.3% 7 5 Round Accuracy 28.6% 2 5 Underdog Accuracy 50.0% 1 1 How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls	Prado · KO/TKO · R2	Upcoming	Prado	KO/TKO	R2
KingofCrackdown5095 picks Francisco Prado to beat Ismael Bonfim by second-round TKO, at low confidence. Hear it — 2:11 KingofCrackdown5095 on YouTube ↗ KingofCrackdown5095’s track record → Track record: winner called in 17 of 28 resolved picks, 4 a perfect call. How winner calls are counted · What a perfect call is
Walk The Line MMA22 resolved calls Walk The Line MMAView full track record Winner Accuracy 59.1% 13 9 Method Accuracy 66.7% 6 3 Round Accuracy 50.0% 2 2 Underdog Accuracy 0.0% 1 How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls	Bonfim · Dec	Upcoming	Bonfim	Dec	Not called
Walk The Line MMA sees the value on Ismael Bonfim and says he wins a decision. Hear it — 14:35 Walk The Line MMA on YouTube ↗ Walk The Line MMA’s track record → Track record: winner called in 13 of 22 resolved picks, 5 a perfect call. How winner calls are counted · What a perfect call is
Adam Martin29 resolved calls Adam MartinView full track record Winner Accuracy 55.2% 16 13 Method Accuracy 0.0% 4 Round Accuracy 0.0% 1 Underdog Accuracy 25.0% 1 3 How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls	Prado · KO/TKO	Upcoming	Prado	KO/TKO	Not called
Adam Martin picks Francisco Prado to beat Ismael Bonfim by knockout. Hear it — 13:01 Adam Martin’s track record → Track record: winner called in 16 of 29 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
The MMA Yuda34 resolved calls The MMA YudaView full track record Winner Accuracy 50.0% 17 17 Method Accuracy 0.0% 1 Round AccuracyNamed rounds — none on a correct call yet Underdog Accuracy 25.0% 1 3 How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls	Prado · to win	Upcoming	Prado	Not called	Not called
The MMA Yuda picks Francisco Prado, citing his durability and power advantage over Ismael Bonfim. Hear it — 20:46 The MMA Yuda on YouTube ↗ The MMA Yuda’s track record → Track record: winner called in 17 of 34 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
MMA JAWN10 resolved calls MMA JAWNView full track record Winner Accuracy 50.0% 5 5 Method Accuracy 100.0% 1 Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round Underdog AccuracyNo underdog calls with a known pre-fight price How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls	Bonfim · to win	Upcoming	Bonfim	Not called	Not called
The MMA JAWN channel picks Ismael Bonfim to beat Francisco Prado. The speaker says he does not know exactly how it ends, so no method is recorded. Hear it — 12:40 MMA JAWN on YouTube ↗ MMA JAWN’s track record → Track record: winner called in 5 of 10 resolved picks, 1 a perfect call. How winner calls are counted · What a perfect call is
Lou Finocchiaro6 resolved calls Lou FinocchiaroView full track record Winner Accuracy 50.0% 3 3 Method Accuracy 0.0% 1 Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round Underdog Accuracy 0.0% 1 How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls	Prado · to win	Upcoming	Prado	Not called	Not called
VSiN names Francisco Prado as the best bet for this event. “UFC Vegas 122 Best Bet: Francisco Prado +100” Read source Lou Finocchiaro’s track record → Track record: winner called in 3 of 6 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Chris Schweppe61 resolved calls Chris SchweppeView full track record Winner Accuracy 49.2% 30 31 Method Accuracy 53.3% 16 14 Round Accuracy 27.3% 6 16 Underdog Accuracy 21.4% 3 11 How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls	Bonfim · KO/TKO · R1	Upcoming	Bonfim	KO/TKO	R1
Schweppe picks Ismael Bonfim by first-round knockout. Read source Chris Schweppe’s track record → Track record: winner called in 30 of 61 resolved picks, 8 a perfect call. How winner calls are counted · What a perfect call is
Brandon K12 resolved calls Brandon KView full track record Winner Accuracy 33.3% 4 8 Method Accuracy 0.0% 1 Round Accuracy 0.0% 1 Underdog Accuracy 0.0% 3 How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls	Prado · Sub · R2	Upcoming	Prado	Sub	R2
The Brandon K channel picks Francisco Prado to beat Ismael Bonfim by submission in round two. Hear it — 49:23 Brandon K on YouTube ↗ Brandon K’s track record → Track record: winner called in 4 of 12 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

5 of 14 see a finish — 4 by KO/TKO, 1 by submission, 4 by decision.

The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.

AI Predictions

Latest eligible AI predictions load when this page is online.

Odds

No consensus line is published for this bout yet. A live price may appear when online; this page will not present an unverified or stale line as current.

Checking the latest live price when online.

Best available price

Francisco Prado: -130 at DraftKings
Ismael Bonfim: +112 at FanDuel

Highest American-odds quote among 3 US-licensed sportsbooks, oldest quote Oct 9, 23:28 UTC. Lines move; confirm with the sportsbook. Not betting advice.

Offshore sportsbooks (not licensed in US states)

Francisco Prado: -128 at Bovada
Ismael Bonfim: +111 at BetOnline.ag

Best price among 3 offshore sportsbooks that quote this fight. Offshore books are not licensed by any US state regulator.

Not betting advice · 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-MY-RESET

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Prado vs Bonfim — Lightweight · UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan