MMA OddsBreaker Daily Podcast co-host known as Big Marcel; covers UFC announcements, card updates, analysis, and weekly picks.
Scorecard
Called 13 of 16 resolved picks — every call traced to its source, no bare percentage. How Track Record works.
Not yet ranked — 16 of 20 resolved calls needed for a FightCardIQ Score
- Winner 13 3
- Method 8 5
- Round 4 4
- Underdog 2
Hit Miss
The running record
Every figure below is cumulative — computed over all resolved calls up to and including each card, never one card on its own. A cumulative rate settles as the denominator grows, so its flattening is arithmetic, not a verdict: read where a line sits, and read the vs. the field strip for whether this analyst gained or lost ground on the rest of the roster. Winner is scored on every resolved call; method, round and underdog each have a different and much smaller base, printed beside each one.
Hit Miss Field median Gap to the field
Marcel Dorff has no published Score yet, so this figure shows the record only: 2 cards of scored calls.
13 of 16 — 81% now, from 80% at their first scored card.
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Method
62% 8 of 13 correct winners that named a method
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Round
50% 4 of 8 correct winners that named a round
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Underdog
2 of 2 priced underdog calls — too few to chart a trend.
Card by card
Newest card first — the charts above run oldest to newest. One mark per scored call, hits above the line and misses below. Every call is listed in Call History, below.
- Gamrot vs. Salkilld 5 hit · 1 miss
- Du Plessis vs. Usman 8 hit · 2 miss
Call History
Every logged call, grouped by event, scored on Winner, Method, and Round — nothing about a result ever sits behind a click.
underdog pick favourite pick — shown only for picks with a known pre-fight price. The percentage is the chance the market gave the fighter this analyst picked. Open a row for the price’s source and the credit it earned.
Gamrot vs. Salkilld
Event scorecard
- Winner 5 1
- Method 2 3
- Round 2
- UnderdogNo underdog calls with a known pre-fight price
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Favourite call, market price 60.5%. Ferreira · KO/TKO · R2 | Ferreira · Dec | Hit | Miss | Miss | |
Ferreira by second-round TKO. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 60.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 65.0%. Sutherland · Dec | Montanha · Sub R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Takes Sutherland as the favourite by decision. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 65.0% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 59.5%. Nurgozhay · KO/TKO | Nurgozhay · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Takes Nurgozhay by knockout. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 59.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 72.5%. Asplund · KO/TKO · R1 | Asplund · Dec | Hit | Miss | Miss | |
Takes Asplund by first-round TKO. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 72.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 75.5%. Sousa · KO/TKO | Sousa · Dec | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
Takes Sousa by knockout. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 75.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Miller · Sub | Miller · Sub R2 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Takes Miller by submission. | |||||
Du Plessis vs. Usman
Event scorecard
- Winner 8 2
- Method 6 2
- Round 4 2
- Underdog 2
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Favourite call, market price 64.9%. Du Plessis · Dec | Du Plessis · Dec | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Expects Usman to have some wrestling success, but Du Plessis to perform better overall across five rounds. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 64.9% before the fight, from the pre-event sportsbook consensus frozen before the fight. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 74.8%. Duncan · KO/TKO · R2 | Duncan · Dec | Hit | Miss | Miss | |
Picks Duncan to stop Cannonier in the second round. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 74.8% before the fight, from the pre-event sportsbook consensus frozen before the fight. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 83.5%. Barbosa · Sub · R1 | Barbosa · Sub R1 | Hit | Hit | Hit | |
Backs Barbosa's experience and strength at flyweight for a first-round submission. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 83.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 49.5%. Harris · KO/TKO · R1 | Harris · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Hit | Hit | |
Agrees with the Harris upset pick and calls for an early knockout. Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 49.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Underdog credit earned: 0.01 — (50% − 49.5%) ÷ 50%. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 88.5%. Coria · KO/TKO · R1 | Coria · Dec | Hit | Miss | Miss | |
Agrees with the Coria first-round knockout pick. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 88.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 58.5%. Rodrigues Jr. · KO/TKO · R2 | Franco · KO/TKO R2 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Picks Rodrigues by second-round TKO, while flagging the drop to light heavyweight as a variable. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 58.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 55.5%. Bashi · Dec | Delgado · Dec | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Picks Bashi to control two rounds with grappling and win a decision. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 55.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 64.9%. McMillen · KO/TKO · R3 | McMillen · KO/TKO R3 | Hit | Hit | Hit | |
Picks McMillen by a late third-round TKO, citing flaws in Montes's game. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 64.9% before the fight, from the pre-event sportsbook consensus frozen before the fight. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 75.2%. Hooper · Sub · R1 | Hooper · Sub R1 | Hit | Hit | Hit | |
Picks Hooper by first-round submission, viewing the matchup as a chance for him to rebound. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 75.2% before the fight, from the pre-event sportsbook consensus frozen before the fight. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 39.5%. Lebosnoyani · Dec | Lebosnoyani · Dec | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Takes Lebosnoyani as the underdog, trusting his striking and sufficient grappling against Ko's top game. Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 39.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Underdog credit earned: 0.21 — (50% − 39.5%) ÷ 50%. | |||||
Videos
Every source clip behind Marcel Dorff's logged calls.