Sousa def. Miranda
Dec · unanimous · 5:00
Sousa vs Miranda — Lightweight · UFC Fight Night
What happened
Manoel Sousa came through a competitive lightweight fight with Richie Miranda by adjusting after a difficult opening round. Miranda controlled stretches from the back early, but Sousa hurt him in the second and kept the better pressure and striking through the finish.
- Miranda dragged Sousa to the canvas in the first and worked from his back.
- Sousa hurt Miranda in the second round and shifted the fight back toward the feet.
- Sousa's pressure and cleaner work over the final rounds produced the unanimous decision.
- 29–28
- 29–28
- 29–28
Play-by-play source: UFC.com · UFC Fight Night: Gamrot vs Salkilld prelim results
Who Called It?
How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.
Caller scorecard: TheWeasle called it; The MMA Guru called it; DFS By The Numbers called it; KennyOkoyeMMA called it; Adam Martin called it; Marcel Dorff called it; AJ called it; Mike Finch called it; Bedtime MMA missed; We Want Picks missed; MMAPREDICTIONGURU missed; Michael Chiesa missed; Bookie Beatdown missed; JakeGerberMMA missed.
8 of 14 called the winner.
The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.
Full analyst picks ↓
TheWeasle Analyst called 34 of 48 TheWeasle: predicted Sousa · to win. Actual Sousa · Dec. Result: Hit.
Takes Sousa without naming a method.
Track record: winner called in 34 of 48 resolved picks, 14 a perfect call.
The MMA Guru Analyst called 39 of 56 The MMA Guru: predicted Sousa · KO/TKO · R3. Actual Sousa · Dec. Result: Hit.
Settles on Sousa by third-round TKO after weighing the finish.
Track record: winner called in 39 of 56 resolved picks, 15 a perfect call.
DFS By The Numbers Betting deskAnalyst called 54 of 76 DFS By The Numbers: predicted Sousa · KO/TKO · R2. Actual Sousa · Dec. Result: Hit.
Takes Sousa by second-round knockout.
Track record: winner called in 54 of 76 resolved picks, 21 a perfect call.
KennyOkoyeMMA Analyst called 15 of 18 KennyOkoyeMMA: predicted Sousa · to win. Actual Sousa · Dec. Result: Hit.
Leans Sousa without a method.
Track record: winner called in 15 of 18 resolved picks, 3 a perfect call.
Adam Martin AnalystBetting desk called 14 of 16 Adam Martin: predicted Sousa · KO/TKO. Actual Sousa · Dec. Result: Hit.
Takes Sousa by knockout.
Track record: winner called in 14 of 16 resolved picks, 8 a perfect call.
Marcel Dorff Analyst called 12 of 15 Marcel Dorff: predicted Sousa · KO/TKO. Actual Sousa · Dec. Result: Hit.
Takes Sousa by knockout.
Track record: winner called in 12 of 15 resolved picks, 7 a perfect call.
AJ Betting deskAnalyst called 48 of 60 AJ: predicted Sousa · to win. Actual Sousa · Dec. Result: Hit.
Resolves a close call toward Sousa.
Track record: winner called in 48 of 60 resolved picks, 23 a perfect call.
Mike Finch Betting deskAnalyst called 22 of 35 Mike Finch: predicted Sousa · KO/TKO. Actual Sousa · Dec. Result: Hit.
Takes Sousa by knockout.
Track record: winner called in 22 of 35 resolved picks, 9 a perfect call.
Bedtime MMA Analyst called 58 of 88 Bedtime MMA: predicted Miranda · KO/TKO. Actual Sousa · Dec. Result: Miss.
Takes Miranda by knockout, hedging between the second and third round.
Track record: winner called in 58 of 88 resolved picks, 25 a perfect call.
We Want Picks Betting desk called 45 of 67 We Want Picks: predicted Miranda · to win. Actual Sousa · Dec. Result: Miss.
Takes Miranda without a method.
Track record: winner called in 45 of 67 resolved picks.
MMAPREDICTIONGURU AnalystBetting desk called 15 of 25 MMAPREDICTIONGURU: predicted Miranda · to win. Actual Sousa · Dec. Result: Miss.
Leans Miranda without a firm method.
Track record: winner called in 15 of 25 resolved picks, 7 a perfect call.
Michael Chiesa AnalystFighter called 24 of 31 Michael Chiesa: predicted Miranda · to win. Actual Sousa · Dec. Result: Miss.
Takes Miranda without naming a method.
Track record: winner called in 24 of 31 resolved picks, 1 a perfect call.
Bookie Beatdown Betting deskAnalyst called 10 of 16 Bookie Beatdown: predicted Miranda · to win. Actual Sousa · Dec. Result: Miss.
Leans Miranda without a firm method.
Track record: winner called in 10 of 16 resolved picks, 1 a perfect call.
JakeGerberMMA Analyst called 30 of 38 JakeGerberMMA: predicted Miranda · Decision. Actual Sousa · Dec. Result: Miss.
Takes Miranda by decision.
Track record: winner called in 30 of 38 resolved picks, 4 a perfect call.
Odds
How the market called it — the final pre-fight line against the result, not betting advice.
Market read · 6 sportsbooks
Favoured: Sousa (72%) Called it
Sousa def. Miranda · Dec
Archive
Pre-fight material — kept for transparency, folded by default.
Tale of the Tape
Records & career stats — as they entered fight night
- 14-1-0
- Record
- 13-1-0
- 4-1 last 5
- Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
- 5-0 last 5
- —
- StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
- —
- —
- Finish rateFinish %Finish rateThe share of a fighter’s wins that ended inside the distance — by KO/TKO or submission — rather than going to the judges’ scorecards. Higher means more finishes.
- —
- 4.15
- Sig. strikes landed / minStrikes / minSignificant strikes landed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter lands for every minute of fight time — a read on striking output and pace. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
- Not published
- 3.71
- Sig. strikes absorbed / minAbsorbed / minSignificant strikes absorbed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter takes for every minute of fight time. Lower is better — it means they get hit less often. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
- Not published
- 51%
- Striking defenseStrike def.Striking defenseThe percentage of opponents’ significant strikes that do not land — strikes slipped, blocked or evaded. Higher is better. Not the same as striking accuracy, which counts your own strikes that land. From UFC/FightMetric.
- Not published
- 60%
- Takedown defenseTD def.Takedown defenseThe percentage of opponents’ takedown attempts that are stuffed. Higher means harder to put on the mat. From UFC/FightMetric.
- Not published
- —
- Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
- —
- Brazil
- Nationality
- United States
- Academia Octógono
- Team
- Bloodline Combat Sports
Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Numbers reflect records coming into fight night. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.
Pre-fight analysis — how we saw it going in
Case for Sousa
Sousa is 1-0 in the UFC after stopping Bolaji Oki with a third-round TKO in March, having earned his contract by finishing Cristian Perez on the Contender Series the previous August. Nine of his fourteen career wins have come by knockout and three more by submission, and the UFC lists him as a striker — a profile his lone Octagon outing backed up at 4.15 significant strikes landed per minute and 45% accuracy.
Case for Miranda
Miranda has not lost since April 2023, riding a seven-fight win streak that includes taking the LFA lightweight title in April 2025 and defending it twice. The UFC lists him as a wrestler, backed by two years as a junior-college All-American before moving up to Division II, and he trains under Cub Swanson. Five of his thirteen wins have come by knockout and three by submission, but this is his first fight under the UFC banner and there is no Octagon tape on him.
What We Were Watching For
- Whether Miranda's college wrestling can get takedowns on a fighter the UFC lists as a striker.
- Sousa already has UFC tape — 4.15 significant strikes landed per minute at 45% accuracy — while Miranda enters with none.
- Two Octagon debuts one fight apart: Sousa 1-0 off a third-round TKO, Miranda unbeaten in seven going back to April 2023.
- Both fighters finish: Sousa has stopped twelve of his fourteen opponents, Miranda eight of his thirteen — whether this one sees the scorecards at all.
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