MMA analyst publishing UFC full-card prediction and breakdown videos.
JakeGerberMMA on YouTube ↗Scorecard
Called 60 of 90 resolved picks — every call traced to its source, no bare percentage. How Track Record works.
- Winner 60 30
- Method 23 15
- Round 5 6
- Underdog 2 4
Hit Miss
The running record
Every figure below is cumulative — computed over all resolved calls up to and including each card, never one card on its own. A cumulative rate settles as the denominator grows, so its flattening is arithmetic, not a verdict: read where a line sits, and read the vs. the field strip for whether this analyst gained or lost ground on the rest of the roster. Winner is scored on every resolved call; method, round and underdog each have a different and much smaller base, printed beside each one.
Hit Miss Field median Gap to the field
JakeGerberMMA scored 74.7 after 8 cards, against a ranked field spanning 59.7 to 92.5. Also plotted: TheWeasle (#1), HopperoMMA (#9). Against the median of the other 17 ranked analysts they finished 0.5 below, from 3.1 above at Ankalaev vs. Guskov.
74.7 now, across 8 cards. The first 1 card is drawn dashed and hollow: below 20 resolved calls there is no published score yet. The shaded band is where the whole ranked field sits — 59.7 to 92.5 across 18 analysts, this one included.
60 of 90 — 67% now, from 73% at their first scored card.
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Method
61% 23 of 38 correct winners that named a method
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Round
45% 5 of 11 correct winners that named a round
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Underdog
33% 2 of 6 priced underdog calls
The opening points are drawn dashed and hollow: below 5 scored calls this rate is not yet a reliable figure.
Card by card
Newest card first — the charts above run oldest to newest. One mark per scored call, hits above the line and misses below. Every call is listed in Call History, below.
- Hooker vs. Parnasse 74.7 8 hit · 6 miss
- Nurmagomedov vs. Song 76.6 8 hit · 5 miss
- Hernandez vs. Rodrigues 76.9 8 hit · 5 miss
- UFC 330 77.6 6 hit · 5 miss
- Gamrot vs. Salkilld 81.6 6 hit · 2 miss
- Medic vs. Rodriguez 80.8 6 hit · 2 miss
- Ankalaev vs. Guskov 78.5 10 hit · 2 miss
- Du Plessis vs. Usman 73.2 8 hit · 3 miss
Call History
Every logged call, grouped by event, scored on Winner, Method, and Round — nothing about a result ever sits behind a click.
underdog pick favourite pick — shown only for picks with a known pre-fight price. The percentage is the chance the market gave the fighter this analyst picked. Open a row for the price’s source and the credit it earned.
Rosas Jr. vs. Barcelos
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jr. vs Barcelos | Jr. · to win | Upcoming | |||
Hooker vs. Parnasse
Event scorecard
- Winner 8 6
- Method 4 1
- Round 1
- UnderdogNo underdog calls with a known pre-fight price
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Favourite call, market price 80.8%. Parnasse · KO/TKO | Parnasse · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Picks Salahdine Parnasse's speed, straight left hand, and all-around game to stop Dan Hooker within the first three rounds. “I think Salahdine Parnasse is able to TKO Dan Hooker inside the first three rounds.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 80.8% before the fight, from the pre-event sportsbook consensus frozen before the fight. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Aljarouj · to win | Sintes · Dec | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Favours Aljarouj's striking and sprawl over Sintes' looping, opening-prone offence, without calling a finish. “So, I'm going to go Michael.” | |||||
| Montenegro · Dec | Benouaich · Sub R2 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Favours Montenegro's physicality and forward pressure over Benouaich's less proven ground game. “Give me Sophia Montenegro by a 2928 uh close decision.” | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 76.6%. Campbell · Dec | Campbell · Sub R3 | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
Expects Campbell's grappling edge to control Peek and win the scorecards. “So I'll say Campbell does enough with the grappling, lands some decent shots on the feet by just being a little bit sharper.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 76.6% before the fight, from the pre-event sportsbook consensus frozen before the fight. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Lima · Dec | Lima · Dec | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Gives Lima the rounded-approach edge in an expected close fight. “but I'm going to give the slight lean to Felipe Lima to get it done 29 to 28 here.” | |||||
| Syguła · Dec | Cornolle · Dec | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Gives Syguła the jab and output edge in what he calls a coin-flip fight. “but I'm going to side with Claudia Sigula here actually.” | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 67.4%. Donchenko · to win | Donchenko · Dec | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Rates Donchenko's striking a step ahead but stays open between a decision and a body-shot finish. “but Donenko striking I think is a step ahead and I think he gets this one done” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 67.4% before the fight, from the pre-event sportsbook consensus frozen before the fight. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Duclos · to win | Duclos · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Backs Duclos' sharper technical striking to catch a slowing Dias, without settling on finish or decision. “in terms of a pick, I'll say Dlo gets it done.” | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 76.3%. Keita · KO/TKO · R2 | Keita · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Hit | Miss | |
Backs Keita's power to find the finish against a more technical but less dangerous Naimov. “Give me Lucen Kada by round two knockout here.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 76.3% before the fight, from the pre-event sportsbook consensus frozen before the fight. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 65.1%. Page · to win | Page · Dec | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Says repeatedly he dislikes the pick, then leans Page on footwork and elusiveness despite Ruziboev's grappling. “So, for now, I'll say MVP.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 65.1% before the fight, from the pre-event sportsbook consensus frozen before the fight. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Pinto · KO/TKO | Pinto · KO/TKO R2 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Backs Pinto's fight IQ and ground game to weather Spann's power and get a late stoppage. “So, but give me Mario Pinto.” | |||||
| Sy · Dec | Bukauskas · KO/TKO R2 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Calls both fighters unreliable but gives Sy a slight edge on reach and grappling in an expected split. “But in terms of a pick, I'll pick Umarci.” | |||||
| Wood · Dec | Andrusca · Dec | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Backs Wood's craft and experience edge to grind out the scorecards. “We're going Nathaniel Wood by a crafty veteran decision.” | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 58.1%. Ziam · Dec | Sola · KO/TKO R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Backs Ziam's technical edge over a dangerous but late-fading Sola. “Give me ZM to get this one done by a competitive decision just a little bit sharper.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 58.1% before the fight, from the pre-event sportsbook consensus frozen before the fight. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
Nurmagomedov vs. Song
Event scorecard
- Winner 8 5
- Method 6 1
- Round 1
- UnderdogNo underdog calls with a known pre-fight price
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asakura · KO/TKO | Asakura · KO/TKO R2 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Picks Kai Asakura to find the knockout in one of the opening two rounds against Aori Qileng. “Give me Kai Asakura to find the knockout, round one or two.” | |||||
| Lima · Sub | Lima · Sub R3 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Picks Andre Lima by submission, expecting his movement, leg kicks and durability to create a later grappling opening. “Andre Lima by submission.” | |||||
| Ce · KO/TKO | Ce · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Picks Liu Ce to find the knockout through his power against Levi Rodrigues Jr. “Give me Liu Ce to find the knockout.” | |||||
| Hasan · to win | Hasan · KO/TKO R2 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Picks Bilal Hasan without committing to the earlier knockout lean as a final method call. “Give me Bilal Hasan.” | |||||
| Jenkins · Dec | Woodson · Dec | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Picks Jack Jenkins by decision in a close matchup, citing his damaging leg kicks. “Jack Jenkins by decision.” | |||||
| Polastri · Dec | Polastri · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
Picks Julia Polastri by decision for her technical striking edge. “Go with Julia Polastri. She's going to outpoint her and get it done on the cards.” | |||||
| Lui · Dec | Santiago · KO/TKO R2 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Picks Lawrence Lui by decision, citing his CKB experience, jab, leg kicks, and wrestling. “Give me Lawrence Lui by decision.” | |||||
| Nelson · Dec | Nelson · Dec | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Picks Cam Nelson by decision for his grappling control and ground-and-pound. “Cam Nelson gets it done 29 to 28 on the cards.” | |||||
| Nurmagomedov · Dec | Yadong · KO/TKO R2 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Picks Umar Nurmagomedov by decision for his striking, wrestling, movement, and conditioning. “49-46 or 50-45.” | |||||
| Sumudaerji · Dec | Sumudaerji · Dec | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Picks Sumudaerji by decision for his speed, footwork, and scrambling against wrestling. “Sumudaerji by decision.” | |||||
| Tsuruya · Sub · R1 | Tsuruya · Sub R1 | Hit | Hit | Hit | |
Picks Rei Tsuruya for a first-round submission through his grappling advantage. “First-round submission.” | |||||
| Long · Dec | Nuzzi · KO/TKO R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Picks Xiao Long by decision, citing his pressure, power, and volume. “Xiao Long by decision.” | |||||
| Xiaonan · Dec | Gomes · KO/TKO R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Picks Yan Xiaonan by decision for her technical striking, footwork, jab, and grappling defence. “Yan Xiaonan by decision.” | |||||
Hernandez vs. Rodrigues
Event scorecard
- Winner 8 5
- Method 4 4
- Round 2 2
- Underdog 1 2
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Underdog call, market price 33.5%. Rodrigues · KO/TKO | Rodrigues · Dec | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
Reads it as Rodrigues early or Hernandez late, and takes Rodrigues on the more patient approach: right hands and knees to the body until Hernandez slows and backs away, with Rodrigues' ground game good enough to stall the early takedowns. “But I'm going to give the edge to Robocop with his more patient approach.” Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 33.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Underdog credit earned: 0.33 — (50% − 33.5%) ÷ 50%. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 78.5%. de Ridder · Sub | de Ridder · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
Expects Dolidze to struggle in the clinch, de Ridder to tap away with knees to the body and take him down, then slide into a dominant position as Dolidze slows later in the fight and finish with an arm triangle. “RDR gets him down and ends up finding a submission. I like RDR at 205 a lot.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 78.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 46.5%. Nzechukwu · Dec | Gaziev · KO/TKO R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Sees Gaziev's early power and clinch pressure as the main danger, but expects Nzechukwu's front kicks, reach and southpaw striking to drain Gaziev's gas tank. Gives Nzechukwu rounds two and three after Gaziev fades and takes the decision. “Give me Kennedy by decision.” Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 46.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Underdog credit earned: 0.00 — credit is earned only on a correct call. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 41.5%. Spivac · to win | Petrino · Dec | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Takes Spivac as the underdog, rating him a well-rounded heavyweight with sharp striking and calling the jab money against Delija. Expects him to outscore Petrino with the jab, right hand and leg kicks provided he avoids a big shot, and notes Petrino is very hittable. Adds that Spivac has the grappling fallback Petrino lacks if the striking goes badly. “Give me Sergey here.” Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 41.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Underdog credit earned: 0.00 — credit is earned only on a correct call. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 83.5%. Judice · KO/TKO · R2 | Judice · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Hit | Miss | |
Credits Judice's movement, ring craft and improved takedown defence, and judges Chaves's ground game not good enough to trouble her -- noting Juliana Miller is far better on the ground than Chaves and still could not exploit it. Expects kicks to the body or a set-up high kick to end it. “Give me Carly Judice by second round knockout.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 83.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 87.5%. Dyer · KO/TKO · R2 | Dyer · KO/TKO R3 | Hit | Hit | Miss | |
Sees Dyer walking Reed down, blasting leg kicks, attacking the body and bringing combinations around the guard until Reed melts along the fence and the referee steps in. Rates Reed as technical but not dangerous enough to trouble Dyer, and says Dyer's ground game concerns are overstated -- she could equally outstrike Reed comfortably over fifteen minutes. “Give me Chanel Dyer by round two knockout.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 87.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 62.5%. McVey · KO/TKO · R1 | McVey · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Hit | Hit | |
Frames it as either McVey by TKO or Schultz by submission, and leans McVey on improved takedown defence, his clinch game and his range striking. Expects body work to pay off against an opponent who has slowed in previous fights, then follow-up ground and pound. Openly conflicted -- says he could see it going either way and that the fight is stressing him out. “I'll give the slight lean to Jackson McVey by um by round one TKO.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 62.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 77.5%. Jones · Dec | Mederos · KO/TKO R2 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Calls it a good, competitive fight and rates Mederos durable, but gives Jones the edge as the better grappler with more power. Expects Jones to drain Mederos's gas tank, then open up on the feet -- walking him down and advancing forward in a way that scores well with the judges. Scores it 29-28. “It's going to be Mason Jones via a dog fight. I think he gets it done by a competitive decision.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 77.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Padilla · Dec | Padilla · Sub R3 | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
Reads it as competitive and credits Haqparast's movement and high guard, suggesting he would be wise to work the body. Leans Padilla on forward pressure, with elbows and knees the deciding weapons -- expecting accumulated damage to edge it on the cards. Notes he has repeatedly backed Padilla as an underdog. “So slight lean for me towards Taco Padilla.” | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 62.5%. Young · Dec | Dorsainvil · Dec | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Calls it competitive and explicitly warns not to count Dorsainvil out, rating him as genuinely good and deserving another opportunity even in defeat. Leans Young because Dorsainvil does not always use his reach well and crashes into the pocket, which should let Young land counter combinations and break him down as the fight goes. “I'm going to say 2928 split decision. Gage Young gets it done in a close one.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 62.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 76.5%. Douglas · KO/TKO · R1 | Emmers · KO/TKO R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Concedes a route for Emmers -- movement, sticking and moving, catching Douglas coming in, mixing in takedowns to win minutes and drain him -- and says he likes Emmers and rates him game. Picks against him anyway on Douglas's power, citing what he did to Juicy J and to Camtigo on DWCS, and calls it simply a bad matchup. “So, I feel like he lands on Emmers and puts them out pretty bad in the very first round.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 76.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 87.5%. Barbosa · KO/TKO | Barbosa · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Allows Kuse could pull something off if he can eat the big shots moving forward, and grants him sneaky kicks and a decent ground game. Sides with Barbosa on power against solid opposition, expecting a big right hand to sneak around the guard at some point in the first or second round for yet another knockout. “but I got to go Barbosa, man. All it takes is one shot.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 87.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 89.5%. Wint · KO/TKO · R1 | Wint · Sub R1 | Hit | Miss | Hit | |
Rates Chatman's boxing as solid and actually decent, then calls it a bad matchup: beating Wint requires surviving early danger to drag the fight long. Leans on Wint's athletic advantage -- which he ranks above much of the heavyweight division -- plus one-shot power, a good ground game and the takedown defence shown against Matt Adams on the Contender Series. Discloses he is a fan from Wint's FAU football days and is rooting for him. “Round one, knockout.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 89.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
UFC 330
Makhachev vs. Machado Garry
Event scorecard
- Winner 6 5
- Method 4 2
- RoundNamed rounds — none on a correct call yet
- UnderdogNo underdog calls with a known pre-fight price
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Favourite call, market price 87.5%. Orolbai · Sub | Wells · Sub R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Expects Orolbai to hurt Wells, use takedowns and dominant position, then find a submission. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 87.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 58.5%. Brahimaj · Sub · R2 | Magny · KO/TKO R2 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Calls the fight a coin flip but formally picks Brahimaj by second-round submission after the weigh-in caveat. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 58.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 72.5%. Fernando · KO/TKO | Fernando · KO/TKO R3 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Favors Fernando's technical striking and body work, trusting his takedown defense for a later-stage knockout. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 72.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 50.5%. Luque · Sub · R2 | Gore · Dec R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Cautiously backs Luque to club and submit Gore in round two. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 50.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 75.5%. Johnson · Dec | Johnson · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
Thinks Johnson's pressure will carry a decision despite McConico being the more technical fighter. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 75.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 51.5%. Turner · KO/TKO | Turner · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Backs Turner for an early knockout while acknowledging Fernandes's leg-kick route. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 51.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 73.5%. Álvarez · Sub | Njokuani · Dec R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Predicts Álvarez to club and submit Njokuani, without a single round call. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 73.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 85.5%. Ribovics · KO/TKO | Ribovics · KO/TKO R2 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Favors Ribovics by knockout, with no single round specified. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 85.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 85.5%. Abdul-Malik · KO/TKO | Stoltzfus · Sub R2 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Calls Abdul-Malik by TKO in either round one or two, so no single round is recorded. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 85.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 63.5%. Dern · Sub | Dern · Dec R5 | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
Favors Dern's striking and jiu-jitsu edge and explicitly predicts a submission without a single round. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 63.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 73.5%. Makhachev · Dec | Makhachev · Dec R5 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Expects Makhachev's wrestling and positional control to narrowly win a competitive decision. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 73.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
Gamrot vs. Salkilld
Event scorecard
- Winner 6 2
- Method 2 4
- Round 1 2
- Underdog 1
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Favourite call, market price 57.5%. Salkilld · Dec | Salkilld · Sub R1 | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
Takes Salkilld by decision. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 57.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 60.5%. Ferreira · Sub · R2 | Ferreira · Dec | Hit | Miss | Miss | |
Takes Ferreira by second-round submission. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 60.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 79.5%. Miller · Dec | Miller · KO/TKO R3 | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
Leans to a 30-27 decision, describing a striking master class for Miller. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 79.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 65.0%. Sutherland · Dec | Montanha · Sub R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Takes Sutherland by a 30-27 scorecard. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 65.0% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 59.5%. Nurgozhay · KO/TKO · R1 | Nurgozhay · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Hit | Hit | |
Takes Nurgozhay by first-round knockout. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 59.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 72.5%. Asplund · KO/TKO · R2 | Asplund · Dec | Hit | Miss | Miss | |
Takes Asplund by second-round TKO. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 72.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 24.5%. Miranda · Dec | Sousa · Dec | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Takes Miranda by decision. Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 24.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Underdog credit earned: 0.00 — credit is earned only on a correct call. | |||||
| Miller · Sub | Miller · Sub R2 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Takes Miller by submission, hedging the round. | |||||
Medic vs. Rodriguez
Event scorecard
- Winner 6 2
- Method 3 3
- Round 1 1
- UnderdogNo underdog calls with a known pre-fight price
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Favourite call, market price 77.5%. Medić · KO/TKO · R1 | Medić · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Hit | Hit | |
Sees a big speed and timing gap in Medic's favour, with Rodriguez at almost 40 charging in with his hands down, and expects Medic to slide out of range and land the left hand early. “I'm siding with [Uros] Medic by a round one knockout. He's too fast, too explosive right now.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 77.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 75.5%. Stirling · Dec | Stirling · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
A self-described Blachowicz fan, he says Jan has slowed enough that Stirling catches him at the right time, staying a step ahead behind the jab and leg kicks. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 75.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 76.5%. Rakić · Dec | Rakić · Dec R3 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Calls Tybura slow, sloppy and washed and says Rakic should be faster and sharper even in his heavyweight debut, settling on a wide, coasting decision. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 76.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 58.5%. Valentin · Dec | Valentin · Sub R1 | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
Rates Valentin the more durable and dangerous striker with jiu-jitsu good enough to neutralise Todorovic's wrestling, and questions Todorovic's chin. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 58.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 73.5%. Cepo · KO/TKO | Urbina · KO/TKO R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Openly says he is not sold on Cepo and thinks Urbina is technically the better fighter, but sides with Cepo's power and chaotic early aggression overwhelming him. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 73.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 76.5%. Oliveira · KO/TKO · R2 | Oliveira · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Hit | Miss | |
Thinks Elliott has been badly overrated and calls this a layup for Oliveira, who has a six-and-a-half-inch reach edge, real power and a solid gas tank. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 76.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 69.5%. Klein · Dec | Musayev · KO/TKO R2 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Rates Klein faster, sharper and the more well-rounded striker with sneaky submission skills, and thinks Musayev's main path is a single big damaging shot. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 69.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 65.5%. Grad · Dec | Grad · Sub R2 | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
Calls this a genuine coin flip and says Buzukja may be the sharper striker, but leans Grad because his forward pressure and activity should look better to the judges. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 65.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
Ankalaev vs. Guskov
Event scorecard
- Winner 10 2
- MethodCalls the winner, not the method
- RoundCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog 1
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Favourite call, market price 82.5%. Ankalaev · to win | Ankalaev · KO/TKO R5 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Names Magomed Ankalaev as the full-card pick in this preview. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 82.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 76.5%. Kuniev · to win | Kuniev · KO/TKO R3 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Names Rizvan Kuniev as the full-card pick in this preview. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 76.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Dulatov vs Turman | Dulatov · to win | Upcoming | |||
| Favourite call, market price 63.5%. Sola · to win | Sola · Sub R1 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Names Axel Sola as the full-card pick in this preview. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 63.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 62.5%. Walker · to win | Walker · Sub R1 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Names Valter Walker as the full-card pick in this preview. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 62.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 87.5%. Tuchalov · to win | Tuchalov · Dec | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Names Magomed Tuchalov as the full-card pick in this preview. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 87.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 71.5%. Zaynukov · to win | Zaynukov · Dec | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Names Magomed Zaynukov as the full-card pick in this preview. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 71.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 32.5%. Davis · to win | Aliev · Dec | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Names Mike Davis as the full-card pick in this preview. Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 32.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Underdog credit earned: 0.00 — credit is earned only on a correct call. | |||||
| Temirov · to win | Temirov · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Names Ramazan Temirov as the full-card pick in this preview. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 80.5%. Patterson · to win | Patterson · KO/TKO R2 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Names Sam Patterson as the full-card pick in this preview. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 80.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 67.0%. Vagaev · to win | Vagaev · Dec | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Names Abubakar Vagaev as the full-card pick in this preview. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 67.0% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Jacoby · to win | Saidov · KO/TKO R2 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Names Dustin Jacoby as the full-card pick in this preview. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 84.5%. Hussein · to win | Hussein · Sub R3 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Names Abdul Hussein as the full-card pick in this preview. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 84.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
Du Plessis vs. Usman
Event scorecard
- Winner 8 3
- MethodCalls the winner, not the method
- RoundCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog 1
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Favourite call, market price 83.5%. Barbosa · to win | Barbosa · Sub R1 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Takes Barbosa's UFC experience and grappling over the debuting Melisano. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 83.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 44.5%. Delgado · to win | Delgado · Dec | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Takes Delgado's striking and shot selection over Bashi's takedown-first route. Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 44.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Underdog credit earned: 0.11 — (50% − 44.5%) ÷ 50%. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 74.8%. Duncan · to win | Duncan · Dec | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Takes Duncan's speed, movement and improving game against an aging Cannonier. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 74.8% before the fight, from the pre-event sportsbook consensus frozen before the fight. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 88.5%. Coria · to win | Coria · Dec | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Takes Coria's better boxing and body work to separate him from Nicoll. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 88.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 64.9%. Du Plessis · to win | Du Plessis · Dec | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Takes Du Plessis in a competitive matchup, expecting the layoff to have addressed his defensive wrestling. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 64.9% before the fight, from the pre-event sportsbook consensus frozen before the fight. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 50.5%. Hines · to win | Harris · KO/TKO R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Takes Hines' more complete game and pace, while acknowledging Harris' one-shot danger. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 50.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 75.2%. Hooper · to win | Hooper · Sub R1 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Gives Hooper another chance on the strength of his high-level jiu-jitsu edge over Ramirez. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 75.2% before the fight, from the pre-event sportsbook consensus frozen before the fight. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 64.9%. McMillen · to win | McMillen · KO/TKO R3 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Takes McMillen to thrive in a chaotic, competitive matchup with Montes. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 64.9% before the fight, from the pre-event sportsbook consensus frozen before the fight. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 81.5%. Kline · to win | Kline · Dec | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Takes Kline's superior long-range striking and developing grappling over Ricci. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 81.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 58.5%. Rodrigues Jr. · to win | Franco · KO/TKO R2 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Takes Rodrigues' power and pressure over Franco's inconsistent, hesitant form. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 58.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 60.5%. Ko · to win | Lebosnoyani · Dec | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Takes Ko to neutralize Lebosnoyani's offense with responsible defense, wrestling and control. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 60.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
Videos
Every source clip behind JakeGerberMMA's logged calls.