UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues
Round 2 · 2:07
Analysts, AI and market side by side. Open a tab for the detail.
The result, the defining moments, and what the verdict means.
The first round was competitive and entertaining between the two.
Jones built early momentum in round two before Mederos found his opening.
Mederos landed a right hand that put Jones on skates, then swarmed until referee Jason Herzog stopped the fight at 2:07 of round two.
Mederos barely wrestles at all, averaging 0.23 takedowns per 15 minutes, so his route is to keep the fight standing and win the striking exchanges outright. His 83% takedown defence is the highest of the two and is what he needs to lean on.
Jones brings the more varied attack, averaging 3.48 takedowns per 15 minutes alongside a marginally higher striking output. His route is to make Mederos carry weight and fight off his back rather than trade cleanly.
Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Numbers reflect the fighter data snapshot used for this page. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.
How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.
How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls
How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls
How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls
How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls
How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls
Analyst picks: MMA JOEY Miss; JakeGerberMMA Miss; The MMA Guru Miss; We Want Picks Miss; Andrew Richardson Miss.
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MMA JOEY
MMA JOEYView full track record
How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls | Historic market Favourite call, market price 77.5%. Jones · Dec | Mederos · KO/TKO R2 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
| Picks Mason Jones to win. “I'm picking Mason Jones to get it done via decision.” Track record: winner called in 66 of 96 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
JakeGerberMMA
JakeGerberMMAView full track record
How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls | Historic market Favourite call, market price 77.5%. Jones · Dec | Mederos · KO/TKO R2 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
| Calls it a good, competitive fight and rates Mederos durable, but gives Jones the edge as the better grappler with more power. Expects Jones to drain Mederos's gas tank, then open up on the feet -- walking him down and advancing forward in a way that scores well with the judges. Scores it 29-28. “It's going to be Mason Jones via a dog fight. I think he gets it done by a competitive decision.” Track record: winner called in 77 of 116 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
The MMA Guru
The MMA GuruView full track record
How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls | Historic market Favourite call, market price 77.5%. Jones · KO/TKO | Mederos · KO/TKO R2 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
| Picks Mason Jones by TKO. “I'm going to go with Mason Jones getting this one by TKO.” Track record: winner called in 195 of 296 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
We Want Picks
We Want PicksView full track record
How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls | Historic market Favourite call, market price 77.5%. Jones · to win | Mederos · KO/TKO R2 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
| Reads Mederos as almost too technical and too athletic for this match-up, and expects Jones's pressure and grit to deny him room to breathe -- Jones will keep walking forward even while eating two strikes to one. Mederos's only path is to stay clean, stay safe and out-athlete him. “So, I think Mason Jones wins this fight just by being violent and willing to take a beating.” Track record: winner called in 93 of 145 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
Andrew Richardson
Andrew RichardsonView full track record
How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls | Historic market Favourite call, market price 77.5%. Jones · Dec | Mederos · KO/TKO R2 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
| MMA Mania's UFC Sacramento X-Factor preview has Andrew Richardson picking Mason Jones by decision. Track record: winner called in 30 of 52 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
Only 0 of 5 called the upset.
The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.
Pre-fight calls compared with the recorded result. Winner, method and round are scored separately; market context names whether it comes from a qualified sportsbook snapshot or historic market reconstruction.
Actual Mederos · KO/TKO · R2
Closest probability Gemini put 44% on Mederos.
Independent forecasts from ChatGPT and Gemini · latest 20 Aug, 2 days before the fight
Both expect a win by decision, with win chances from 56% (Gemini) to 58% (ChatGPT).
Method mix differs most for Decision: 65% (Gemini) to 70% (ChatGPT), a 5-point range.
40 of 70 winner picks correct · 57% hit rate
Pick Jones by decision
Win probability: Mederos 42%, Jones 58%.
45 of 70 winner picks correct · 64% hit rate
Pick Jones by decision
Win probability: Mederos 44%, Jones 56%.
ChatGPT reads the fight as “Jones projects as a slight favorite based on his stronger recent winning sequence, broader finishing threat, and greater professional experience. Mederos has shown competitive durability across three-round fights, so a closely contested decision appears more likely than a finish.”
Whether Jones can impose enough sustained offense to separate rounds without giving Mederos extended competitive stretches.
The models differ on probability distribution.
| Detail | ChatGPT | Gemini |
|---|---|---|
| How it endsKO/TKOSubmissionDecisionTop to bottom in each stack | ||
| Round | — | — |
| Detail | ChatGPT | Gemini |
|---|---|---|
| How it endsKO/TKOSubmissionDecisionTop to bottom in each stack | ||
| Round | — | — |
Pick
Jones projects as a slight favorite based on his stronger recent winning sequence, broader finishing threat, and greater professional experience. Mederos has shown competitive durability across three-round fights, so a closely contested decision appears more likely than a finish.
Whether Jones can impose enough sustained offense to separate rounds without giving Mederos extended competitive stretches.
GPT-5 · 20 Aug40 of 70 winner picks correct · 57% hit rate
Pick
This lightweight bout pairs the tested durability of MarQuel Mederos against the high-output pressure of Mason Jones. Given both fighters' frequent distance history and competitive UFC rounds, a tightly scored three-round decision appears the most probable path, with Jones holding a marginal advantage in sustained activity and offensive variety.
Mederos' capacity to land impactful counter-sequences to disrupt Jones' rhythm and sway closely contested judging rounds
Gemini · 20 Aug45 of 70 winner picks correct · 64% hit rate
AI-generated · Not betting advice · 18+ (21+ where required) · Gambling help (opens in new tab) ↗
No market odds are available for this fight yet.
Outcome footage, post-fight coverage, and the pre-fight lead-up.
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