UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues 22 Aug 2026 · Golden 1 Center, Sacramento, California, US

Gregory Rodrigues defeats Anthony Hernandez by unanimous decision

Win Gregory Rodrigues View profile 20-6-0

Loss Fluffy Anthony Hernandez View profile 15-4-0

Watch the fight

Unanimous decision

Round 5 · 5:00

At a glance

Analysts, AI and market side by side. Open a tab for the detail.

Analyst Picks7 analysts✗ Incorrect 71%5 picks 29%2 picks

AI PredictionAverage of 3 models: ChatGPT, Claude, Gemini✗ Incorrect 64% 36%

Analyst picks AI forecasts Market odds

What happened

The result, the defining moments, and what the verdict means.

Rodrigues established range immediately, landing leg kicks and heavy striking to dominate the opening rounds.

Hernandez rallied in round three, mixing in takedown attempts to change the fight's shape.

Rodrigues found a second wind in round four, and over the final five minutes he defended Hernandez's takedown attempts while continuing to land the more impactful blows to close out the decision.

Official UFC resultsUFC Sacramento main card results

Pre-fight analysis — how we saw it going in

Case for Hernandez

Nine of Hernandez's 15 wins are submissions, and he shoots more than anyone else on this card — 5.88 takedowns per 15 minutes at 48% accuracy, alongside 1.60 submission attempts per 15. His route is to convert those entries before this settles into a striking match.

Case for Rodrigues

Rodrigues has stopped 12 of his 19 opponents and carries the higher output at 5.53 significant strikes landed per minute against 4.57. His route is to stay upright behind 75% takedown defence and let the power decide it.

What We Were Watching For

Hernandez's 5.88 takedowns per 15 minutes — the highest rate on the card — against Rodrigues's 75% takedown defence.
Rodrigues absorbs 4.78 significant strikes per minute to Hernandez's 3.10, and Hernandez lands at 60% accuracy.
Both finish at almost the same rate (80% against 79%), so a decision would be the outlier rather than the expectation.
Hernandez averages 10:36 a fight to Rodrigues's 08:28 — more than two minutes of separation in how long they usually work.

Records & career stats

Hernandez vs Rodrigues

Hernandez Rodrigues

OutputSig. strikes landed / min 4.42 5.78
Striking def.Striking defense 48% 50%
DurabilitySig. strikes absorbed / min 3.69 4.57
Takedown def.Takedown defense 68% 85%
FinishingFinish rate 80% 79%

15-3-0
Record: 19-6-0; 4-1 last 5
Recent form: 4-1 last 5; United States
Nationality: Brazil; 32
Age: 34; 1.83 m
Height — Rodrigues leads: 1.91 m; 191 cm
Reach: 191 cm; Orthodox
Stance: —; 80%
Finish rateFinish %: 79%; 3
Wins by KO/TKOKO wins — Rodrigues leads: 12; 9
Wins by submissionSub wins — Hernandez leads: 3; 4.42
Sig. strikes landed / minStr / min — Rodrigues leads: 5.78; 3.69
Sig. strikes absorbed / minAbs / min — Hernandez leads: 4.57; 48%
Striking defenseStrike def.: 50%; 68%
Takedown defenseTD def. — Rodrigues leads: 85%; 11:38
Avg. fight timeAvg. time: 09:34; MMA Gold · El Dorado Hills, CA
Team: Kill Cliff FC

Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Numbers reflect the fighter data snapshot used for this page. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.

Who Called It?

How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.

(5) 71%

LHernandez

29% (2)

RodriguesW

Analyst prediction scorecards

Livid Larry MMA28 resolved calls Livid Larry MMAView full track record Winner Accuracy 71.4% 20 8 Method Accuracy 84.6% 11 2 Round Accuracy 100.0% 2 Underdog Accuracy 66.7% 2 1 How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls	Historic market Favourite call, market price 66.5%. Hernandez · KO/TKO	Rodrigues · Dec R5	Miss	Not applicable — the winner call missed	Not applicable — the winner call missed
Livid Larry MMA picks Anthony Hernandez by a late-round ground-and-pound TKO without committing to a specific round. Hear it — 21:26 Livid Larry MMA on YouTube ↗ Livid Larry MMA’s track record → Track record: winner called in 20 of 28 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
MMA JOEY96 resolved calls MMA JOEYView full track record Winner Accuracy 68.8% 66 30 Method Accuracy 42.6% 20 27 Round Accuracy 26.9% 7 19 Underdog Accuracy 41.2% 7 10 How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls	Historic market Favourite call, market price 66.5%. Hernandez · Sub · R3	Rodrigues · Dec R5	Miss	Not applicable — the winner call missed	Not applicable — the winner call missed
Picks Anthony Hernandez to win. “I'm going to go Anthony Fluffy Hernandez, third round rear naked choke.” Hear it — 34:02 MMA JOEY on YouTube ↗ MMA JOEY’s track record → Track record: winner called in 66 of 96 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
James Blissett43 resolved calls James BlissettView full track record Winner Accuracy 67.4% 29 14 Method Accuracy 48.3% 14 15 Round Accuracy 50.0% 2 2 Underdog Accuracy 57.1% 4 3 How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls	Historic market Favourite call, market price 66.5%. Hernandez · KO/TKO · R4	Rodrigues · Dec R5	Miss	Not applicable — the winner call missed	Not applicable — the winner call missed
Lucrative James picks Anthony Hernandez by fourth-round ground-and-pound TKO. Hear it — 17:52 James Blissett on YouTube ↗ James Blissett’s track record → Track record: winner called in 29 of 43 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
JakeGerberMMA116 resolved calls JakeGerberMMAView full track record Winner Accuracy 66.4% 77 39 Method Accuracy 61.7% 29 18 Round Accuracy 44.4% 4 5 Underdog Accuracy 25.0% 2 6 How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls	Historic market Underdog call, market price 33.5%. Rodrigues · KO/TKO	Rodrigues · Dec R5	Hit	Miss	Not called
Reads it as Rodrigues early or Hernandez late, and takes Rodrigues on the more patient approach: right hands and knees to the body until Hernandez slows and backs away, with Rodrigues' ground game good enough to stall the early takedowns. “But I'm going to give the edge to Robocop with his more patient approach.” Hear it — 72:47 JakeGerberMMA on YouTube ↗ JakeGerberMMA’s track record → Track record: winner called in 77 of 116 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
The MMA Guru296 resolved calls The MMA GuruView full track record Winner Accuracy 65.9% 195 101 Method Accuracy 52.9% 55 49 Round Accuracy 34.3% 12 23 Underdog Accuracy 45.5% 15 18 How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls	Historic market Underdog call, market price 33.5%. Rodrigues · KO/TKO	Rodrigues · Dec R5	Hit	Miss	Not called
Picks Gregory Rodrigues by TKO. “I'm going to go with Gregory Rodrigues by TKO.” Hear it — 41:15 The MMA Guru on YouTube ↗ The MMA Guru’s track record → Track record: winner called in 195 of 296 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
We Want Picks145 resolved calls We Want PicksView full track record Winner Accuracy 64.1% 93 52 Method Accuracy 40.0% 2 3 Round AccuracyNamed rounds — none on a correct call yet Underdog Accuracy 34.5% 10 19 How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls	Historic market Favourite call, market price 66.5%. Hernandez · to win	Rodrigues · Dec R5	Miss	Not applicable — the winner call missed	Not applicable — the winner call missed
Hernandez's grappling volume (six takedowns per 15 minutes) and his ability to absorb head strikes decide it, so long as Rodrigues head-hunts for the knockout instead of attacking the body — the one route Angelo flags as Hernandez's weakness, citing how Kevin Holland and Sean Strickland both beat him. Notes he is surprised Hernandez is as short as -175 rather than -120, but takes him anyway and expects a nail-biter. “I am going to pick him. Anthony Fluffy Hernandez, it's going to be a nail-biter, guys.” Hear it — 37:54 We Want Picks on YouTube ↗ We Want Picks’s track record → Track record: winner called in 93 of 145 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Jesse Holland53 resolved calls Jesse HollandView full track record Winner Accuracy 49.1% 26 27 Method Accuracy 57.7% 15 11 Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round Underdog Accuracy 27.8% 5 13 How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls	Historic market Favourite call, market price 66.5%. Hernandez · KO/TKO	Rodrigues · Dec R5	Miss	Not applicable — the winner call missed	Not applicable — the winner call missed
MMA Mania's UFC Sacramento preview has Jesse Holland picking Anthony Hernandez by technical knockout. Read source Jesse Holland’s track record → Track record: winner called in 26 of 53 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Only 2 of 7 called the upset.

The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.

AI Predictions — Results

Pre-fight calls compared with the recorded result. Winner, method and round are scored separately; market context names whether it comes from a qualified sportsbook snapshot or historic market reconstruction.

Actual Rodrigues · Decision · R5

Closest probability ChatGPT and Gemini put 38% on Rodrigues.

ChatGPT40 of 70 winner picks correct · 57% hit rate

62% Hernandez

38% Rodrigues

PickHernandez · Submission · R4ActualRodrigues · Decision · R5

WinnerMethodRoundHistoric market favourite

Claude41 of 64 winner picks correct · 64% hit rate

67% Hernandez

33% Rodrigues

PickHernandez · DecisionActualRodrigues · Decision · R5

WinnerMethodRoundHistoric market favourite

Gemini45 of 70 winner picks correct · 64% hit rate

62% Hernandez

38% Rodrigues

PickHernandez · Submission · R3ActualRodrigues · Decision · R5

WinnerMethodRoundHistoric market favourite

AI Predictions — pre-fight snapshot

AI Predictions

Independent forecasts from ChatGPT, Claude and Gemini · latest 22 Aug

All 3 models pick Hernandez

They differ on how the fight ends, with win chances from 62% (ChatGPT and Gemini) to 67% (Claude).

Method mix differs most for KO/TKO: 40% (ChatGPT and Gemini) to 45% (Claude), a 5-point range.

ChatGPT
40 of 70 winner picks correct · 57% hit rate

Pick Hernandez by submission in round 4

Win probability: Hernandez 62%, Rodrigues 38%.

gpt-5.6-sol · 22 Aug
Medium confidence
Claude
41 of 64 winner picks correct · 64% hit rate

Pick Hernandez by decision

Win probability: Hernandez 67%, Rodrigues 33%.

claude-opus-5 · 22 Aug
Medium confidence
Gemini
45 of 70 winner picks correct · 64% hit rate

Pick Hernandez by submission in round 3

Win probability: Hernandez 62%, Rodrigues 38%.

gemini-3.1-pro-high · 22 Aug
Medium confidence

ChatGPT reads the fight as “Anthony Hernandez is the pick, with fourth-round submission the most likely specific outcome. The locked distribution favors Hernandez overall, while Rodrigues has the larger knockout probability. The model expects Hernandez's chances to improve if the fight extends beyond the early exchanges.”

What to watch

The locked distribution gives Hernandez a 62% overall win probability.
Submission is Hernandez's leading method at 27%, while knockout is Rodrigues' leading method at 28%.
The forecast's fourth-round finish reflects a model inference that Hernandez's grappling-oriented path becomes more influential as the fight progresses.

Swing factor

Whether Hernandez can survive Rodrigues' higher-probability knockout threat long enough to impose the submission path favored by the model.

More detail3 areas differ

The models differ on finish method, round timing, probability distribution.

Forecast comparison by model
Detail	ChatGPT	Claude	Gemini
How it endsKO/TKOSubmissionDecisionTop to bottom in each stack
Round	Round 4	—	Round 3

Forecast comparison by model
Detail	ChatGPT	Claude	Gemini
How it endsKO/TKOSubmissionDecisionTop to bottom in each stack
Round	Round 4	—	Round 3

ChatGPT

Pick

Hernandez by submission in round 4

Medium confidence

Winner probability by method

How ChatGPT sees the fight

Anthony Hernandez is the pick, with fourth-round submission the most likely specific outcome. The locked distribution favors Hernandez overall, while Rodrigues has the larger knockout probability. The model expects Hernandez's chances to improve if the fight extends beyond the early exchanges.

Keys to victory

The locked distribution gives Hernandez a 62% overall win probability.
Submission is Hernandez's leading method at 27%, while knockout is Rodrigues' leading method at 28%.
The forecast's fourth-round finish reflects a model inference that Hernandez's grappling-oriented path becomes more influential as the fight progresses.

X-factor

Whether Hernandez can survive Rodrigues' higher-probability knockout threat long enough to impose the submission path favored by the model.

gpt-5.6-sol · 22 Aug40 of 70 winner picks correct · 57% hit rate

Claude

Pick

Hernandez by decision

Medium confidence

Winner probability by method

How Claude sees the fight

Anthony Hernandez ~67%, Gregory Rodrigues ~33%: front-loaded power vs. back-loaded grind over five rounds. Rodrigues holds the only fast-kill button (1.01 KD/15min, two R1 KOs in his last three), and Hernandez's R3 loss to Strickland shows he is hittable. But 5.88 TD/15min against a man with 16% TD accuracy and an 8:28 average fight time is a structural mismatch, and Rodrigues has never seen round five — he gassed into an early-R4 stoppage vs. Cannonier. Expect Hernandez to survive an ugly first six minutes, then grind toward a late RNC, TKO, or wide decision.

Keys to victory

Takedown mismatch: Anthony Hernandez averages 5.88 TD/15min at ~48% accuracy vs. Gregory Rodrigues' 16% TD accuracy and 75% takedown defense
Deep water: Hernandez averages 10:36 with R4/R5 finishes of Pereira and Dolidze; Rodrigues averages 8:28 and gassed into an early-R4 stoppage vs. Cannonier
Gregory Rodrigues' path is front-loaded power: 1.01 KD/15min vs. 0.11, against an Anthony Hernandez stopped by strikes just six months ago

X-factor

Anthony Hernandez's re-tool at Xtreme Couture plus home-crowd emotion in Sacramento could push him to over-press early — exactly the clean R1-R2 counter window Gregory Rodrigues needs.

claude-opus-5 · 22 Aug41 of 64 winner picks correct · 64% hit rate

Gemini

Pick

Hernandez by submission in round 3

Medium confidence

Winner probability by method

How Gemini sees the fight

Anthony Hernandez's relentless wrestling pressure and superior cardio over 5 rounds make him the favorite to weather Gregory Rodrigues's early knockout threat and eventually secure a submission or late TKO.

Keys to victory

Hernandez's high-volume grappling and relentless pace.
Rodrigues's explosive knockout power and early finishing threat.
Cardio dynamics in a scheduled 5-round main event favoring Hernandez.

X-factor

Rodrigues's elite BJJ credentials potentially neutralizing Hernandez's primary submission attacks and keeping the fight standing.

gemini-3.1-pro-high · 22 Aug45 of 70 winner picks correct · 64% hit rate

AI-generated · Not betting advice · 18+ (21+ where required) · Gambling help (opens in new tab) ↗

No market odds are available for this fight yet.

Videos

Outcome footage, post-fight coverage, and the pre-fight lead-up.

Before the fight (2)

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Gregory Rodrigues defeats Anthony Hernandez by unanimous decision

Hernandez vs Rodrigues · UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues

At a glance

What happened

Case for Hernandez

Case for Rodrigues

What We Were Watching For

Who Called It?

AI Predictions — Results

AI Predictions

All 3 models pick Hernandez

ChatGPT

Claude

Gemini

What to watch

Swing factor

ChatGPT

Hernandez by submission in round 4

Winner probability by method

How ChatGPT sees the fight

Keys to victory

X-factor

Claude

Hernandez by decision

Winner probability by method

How Claude sees the fight

Keys to victory

X-factor

Gemini

Hernandez by submission in round 3

Winner probability by method

How Gemini sees the fight

Keys to victory

X-factor

Videos

Comments