UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues 22 Aug 2026 · Golden 1 Center, Sacramento, California, US

Carli Judice defeats Jeisla Chaves by KO/TKO

Win Crispy Carli Judice View profile 7-2-0

Loss A Braba Jeisla Chaves View profile 8-1-0

KO/TKO · front kick to the body and punches

Round 1 · 1:39

At a glance

Analysts, AI and market side by side. Open a tab for the detail.

Analyst Picks5 analysts✓ Correct 100%5 picks 0%0 picks

AI PredictionAverage of 3 models: ChatGPT, Claude, Gemini✓ Correct 58% 42%

Analyst picks AI forecasts Market odds

What happened

The result, the defining moments, and what the verdict means.

Judice stalked Chaves from the opening exchanges, cutting off her space.

She buried her toes into Chaves's midsection with a body kick that folded her over.

The kick ended the fight in an instant at 1:39 of round one.

Official UFC resultsUFC Sacramento main card results

Pre-fight analysis — how we saw it going in

Case for Judice

Judice lands 9.32 significant strikes per minute — the highest rate on this card — and five of her six wins are knockouts. Her route is a firefight finished inside the distance.

Case for Chaves

Chaves is 8-0 but finishes only half of those and averages the full 15:00. Her route is to absorb the opening exchanges and take the rounds on the scorecards.

What We Were Watching For

Judice's 9.32 significant strikes landed per minute against Chaves's 4.97 — close to double the volume.
Judice also concedes 6.62 per minute, and Chaves has not yet lost a fight.
Chaves averages the full 15:00 a bout to Judice's 11:38; whether this reaches a third round may settle it.
Chaves is 5-0 in her last five to Judice's 3-2, and Judice has never recorded a submission attempt (0.00 per 15 minutes).

Records & career stats

Judice vs Chaves

Judice Chaves

OutputSig. strikes landed / min 9.33 5.02
Striking def.Striking defense 58% 54%
DurabilitySig. strikes absorbed / min 6.60 4.49
Takedown def.Takedown defense 81% 63%
FinishingFinish rate 83% 50%

6-2-0
Record: 8-0-0; 3-2 last 5
Recent form: 5-0 last 5; United States
Nationality: Brazil; 27
Age: 29; 1.70 m
Height — Judice leads: 1.68 m; 173 cm
Reach: 173 cm; —
Stance: —; 83%
Finish rateFinish % — Judice leads: 50%; 6
Wins by KO/TKOKO wins — Judice leads: 4; 0
Wins by submissionSub wins: 0; 9.33
Sig. strikes landed / minStr / min — Judice leads: 5.02; 6.60
Sig. strikes absorbed / minAbs / min — Chaves leads: 4.49; 58%
Striking defenseStrike def. — Judice leads: 54%; 81%
Takedown defenseTD def. — Judice leads: 63%; 09:58
Avg. fight timeAvg. time: 10:33; Headkicks MMA
Team: Gomes Fight Team

Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Numbers reflect the fighter data snapshot used for this page. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.

Who Called It?

How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.

(5) 100%

WJudice

0% (0)

ChavesL

Analyst prediction scorecards

MMA JOEY96 resolved calls MMA JOEYView full track record Winner Accuracy 68.8% 66 30 Method Accuracy 42.6% 20 27 Round Accuracy 26.9% 7 19 Underdog Accuracy 41.2% 7 10 How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls	Historic market Favourite call, market price 83.5%. Judice · Dec	Judice · KO/TKO R1	Hit	Miss	Not called
Picks Carli Judice to win. “I'll go Judice via decision.” Hear it — 21:27 MMA JOEY on YouTube ↗ MMA JOEY’s track record → Track record: winner called in 66 of 96 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
JakeGerberMMA116 resolved calls JakeGerberMMAView full track record Winner Accuracy 66.4% 77 39 Method Accuracy 61.7% 29 18 Round Accuracy 44.4% 4 5 Underdog Accuracy 25.0% 2 6 How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls	Historic market Favourite call, market price 83.5%. Judice · KO/TKO · R2	Judice · KO/TKO R1	Hit	Hit	Miss
Credits Judice's movement, ring craft and improved takedown defence, and judges Chaves's ground game not good enough to trouble her -- noting Juliana Miller is far better on the ground than Chaves and still could not exploit it. Expects kicks to the body or a set-up high kick to end it. “Give me Carly Judice by second round knockout.” Hear it — 43:19 JakeGerberMMA on YouTube ↗ JakeGerberMMA’s track record → Track record: winner called in 77 of 116 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
The MMA Guru296 resolved calls The MMA GuruView full track record Winner Accuracy 65.9% 195 101 Method Accuracy 52.9% 55 49 Round Accuracy 34.3% 12 23 Underdog Accuracy 45.5% 15 18 How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls	Historic market Favourite call, market price 83.5%. Judice · Dec	Judice · KO/TKO R1	Hit	Miss	Not called
Picks Carly Judice by decision. “I'm going to go with Carly Judice getting this one done by decision.” Hear it — 27:06 The MMA Guru on YouTube ↗ The MMA Guru’s track record → Track record: winner called in 195 of 296 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
We Want Picks145 resolved calls We Want PicksView full track record Winner Accuracy 64.1% 93 52 Method Accuracy 40.0% 2 3 Round AccuracyNamed rounds — none on a correct call yet Underdog Accuracy 34.5% 10 19 How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls	Historic market Favourite call, market price 83.5%. Judice · to win	Judice · KO/TKO R1	Hit	Not called	Not called
Reads it as mostly a striking match-up and takes Judice on that edge, while warning she creates her own danger: after having her back taken early in her last fight she chose to grapple in the third and was nearly submitted. If Chaves lands the same kind of well-timed takedowns she used last time out, it gets weird. Notes the odds are far too long to bet. “Carla is going to be the pick because she's the better striker.” Hear it — 28:41 We Want Picks on YouTube ↗ We Want Picks’s track record → Track record: winner called in 93 of 145 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Andrew Richardson52 resolved calls Andrew RichardsonView full track record Winner Accuracy 57.7% 30 22 Method Accuracy 70.0% 21 9 Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round Underdog Accuracy 0.0% 5 How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls	Historic market Favourite call, market price 83.5%. Judice · KO/TKO	Judice · KO/TKO R1	Hit	Hit	Not called
MMA Mania's UFC Sacramento X-Factor preview has Andrew Richardson picking Carli Judice by knockout. Read source Andrew Richardson’s track record → Track record: winner called in 30 of 52 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

5 of 5 nailed it.

The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.

AI Predictions — Results

Pre-fight calls compared with the recorded result. Winner, method and round are scored separately; market context names whether it comes from a qualified sportsbook snapshot or historic market reconstruction.

Actual Judice · KO/TKO · R1

Closest probability ChatGPT put 60% on Judice.

ChatGPT40 of 70 winner picks correct · 57% hit rate

60% Judice

40% Chaves

PickJudice · KO/TKO · R2ActualJudice · KO/TKO · R1

WinnerMethodRoundHistoric market favourite

Claude41 of 64 winner picks correct · 64% hit rate

55% Judice

45% Chaves

PickJudice · DecisionActualJudice · KO/TKO · R1

WinnerMethodRoundHistoric market favourite

Gemini45 of 70 winner picks correct · 64% hit rate

58% Judice

42% Chaves

PickJudice · DecisionActualJudice · KO/TKO · R1

WinnerMethodRoundHistoric market favourite

AI Predictions — pre-fight snapshot

AI Predictions

Independent forecasts from ChatGPT, Claude and Gemini · latest 20 Aug, 2 days before the fight

All 3 models pick Judice

They differ on how the fight ends, with win chances from 55% (Claude) to 60% (ChatGPT).

Method mix differs most for KO/TKO: 32% (Gemini) to 49% (ChatGPT), a 17-point range.

ChatGPT
40 of 70 winner picks correct · 57% hit rate

Pick Judice by KO/TKO in round 2

Win probability: Judice 60%, Chaves 40%.

GPT-5 · 20 Aug
Medium confidence
Claude
41 of 64 winner picks correct · 64% hit rate

Pick Judice by decision

Win probability: Judice 55%, Chaves 45%.

Claude · 20 Aug
Low confidence
Gemini
45 of 70 winner picks correct · 64% hit rate

Pick Judice by decision

Win probability: Judice 58%, Chaves 42%.

Gemini · 20 Aug
Medium confidence

ChatGPT reads the fight as “Judice is the narrower pick in a striker-versus-striker matchup, with her varied recent finishing routes suggesting the stronger chance of creating a decisive opening. Chaves' unbeaten record and repeated success over three rounds keep the forecast competitive, but Judice may carry the greater finishing threat before the scorecards.”

What to watch

Judice offers multiple striking finish routes
Chaves has shown composure in close decisions
A three-round striking battle limits separation

Swing factor

Whether Chaves can manage distance and pace well enough to prevent Judice from building damaging combinations.

More detail4 areas differ

The models differ on finish method, round timing, confidence, probability distribution.

Forecast comparison by model
Detail	ChatGPT	Claude	Gemini
How it endsKO/TKOSubmissionDecisionTop to bottom in each stack
Round	Round 2	—	—

Forecast comparison by model
Detail	ChatGPT	Claude	Gemini
How it endsKO/TKOSubmissionDecisionTop to bottom in each stack
Round	Round 2	—	—

ChatGPT

Pick

Judice by KO/TKO in round 2

Medium confidence

Winner probability by method

How ChatGPT sees the fight

Judice is the narrower pick in a striker-versus-striker matchup, with her varied recent finishing routes suggesting the stronger chance of creating a decisive opening. Chaves' unbeaten record and repeated success over three rounds keep the forecast competitive, but Judice may carry the greater finishing threat before the scorecards.

Keys to victory

Judice offers multiple striking finish routes
Chaves has shown composure in close decisions
A three-round striking battle limits separation

X-factor

Whether Chaves can manage distance and pace well enough to prevent Judice from building damaging combinations.

GPT-5 · 20 Aug40 of 70 winner picks correct · 57% hit rate

Claude

Pick

Judice by decision

Low confidence

Winner probability by method

How Claude sees the fight

Two striker-forward flyweights meet in a matchup that could plausibly go either way. Judice has two recent striking stoppages and a decision win, while Chaves arrives unbeaten and has won her last two listed bouts by split decision. The supplied results support a competitive standup battle that could extend to the scorecards.

Keys to victory

Judice has recent finishes via strikes (TKO in two of her last three), suggesting she can end things early if she finds range
Chaves is unbeaten but her two most recent wins were split decisions, which may indicate closer, harder-to-score exchanges rather than dominant performances
Judice stopped Yuneisy Duben while Chaves later earned a split decision over the same opponent

X-factor

Whether Chaves can limit the striking openings that produced Judice's two recent stoppage wins.

Claude · 20 Aug41 of 64 winner picks correct · 64% hit rate

Gemini

Pick

Judice by decision

Medium confidence

Winner probability by method

How Gemini sees the fight

This flyweight matchup features two listed strikers in Carli Judice and the undefeated Jeisla Chaves. Judice has two recent striking stoppages and a decision win, while Chaves' last two listed bouts ended in split-decision wins. Their common result against Yuneisy Duben gives Judice the clearer finishing evidence, though Chaves' unbeaten record keeps the forecast close.

Keys to victory

Demonstrated finishing power, where Judice has shown multiple stoppage pathways via strikes.
Chaves' two recent split-decision wins.
Comparative outcomes against common competition, with Judice previously earning an early stoppage while Chaves fought to a split verdict.

X-factor

Adaptability to the flyweight division for two competitors primarily designated in the strawweight ranks.

Gemini · 20 Aug45 of 70 winner picks correct · 64% hit rate

AI-generated · Not betting advice · 18+ (21+ where required) · Gambling help (opens in new tab) ↗

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Carli Judice defeats Jeisla Chaves by KO/TKO

Judice vs Chaves · UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues

At a glance

What happened

Case for Judice

Case for Chaves

What We Were Watching For

Who Called It?

AI Predictions — Results

AI Predictions

All 3 models pick Judice

ChatGPT

Claude

Gemini

What to watch

Swing factor

ChatGPT

Judice by KO/TKO in round 2

Winner probability by method

How ChatGPT sees the fight

Keys to victory

X-factor

Claude

Judice by decision

Winner probability by method

How Claude sees the fight

Keys to victory

X-factor

Gemini

Judice by decision

Winner probability by method

How Gemini sees the fight

Keys to victory

X-factor

Comments