UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues
Round 1 · 4:29
Analysts, AI and market side by side. Open a tab for the detail.
The result, the defining moments, and what the verdict means.
Chatman threatened a kimura early in the fight.
Wint escaped the submission attempt and worked to knee-on-belly.
In the final minute, Wint clamped onto an arm-triangle choke that ended the fight at 4:29 of round one.
Chatman is 5-1 with four knockouts and three first-round finishes, and at 1.88 m he is the taller man by eight centimetres. His route is to use that frame before Wint gets inside it.
Wint is 7-0 with five knockouts, one submission and four first-round finishes, carrying a 198 cm reach. He earned the booking by stopping Matt Adams via strikes at 0:34 of the first round on Dana White's Contender Series, Season 10 Episode 1.
Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Numbers reflect the fighter data snapshot used for this page. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.
How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.
How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls
How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls
How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls
Analyst picks: MMA JOEY Hit; JakeGerberMMA Hit; We Want Picks Hit.
| Expand row | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MMA JOEY
MMA JOEYView full track record
How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls | Historic market Favourite call, market price 89.5%. Wint · KO/TKO · R1 | Wint · Sub R1 | Hit | Miss | Hit | |
| Picks Anthony Wint to win. “I'll say first round brutal KO win for Anthony Wint.” Track record: winner called in 66 of 96 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
JakeGerberMMA
JakeGerberMMAView full track record
How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls | Historic market Favourite call, market price 89.5%. Wint · KO/TKO · R1 | Wint · Sub R1 | Hit | Miss | Hit | |
| Rates Chatman's boxing as solid and actually decent, then calls it a bad matchup: beating Wint requires surviving early danger to drag the fight long. Leans on Wint's athletic advantage -- which he ranks above much of the heavyweight division -- plus one-shot power, a good ground game and the takedown defence shown against Matt Adams on the Contender Series. Discloses he is a fan from Wint's FAU football days and is rooting for him. “Round one, knockout.” Track record: winner called in 77 of 116 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
We Want Picks
We Want PicksView full track record
How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls | Historic market Favourite call, market price 89.5%. Wint · to win | Wint · Sub R1 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
| Dismisses the short-turnaround worry -- Wint won on Tuesday's Contender Series in 34 seconds without absorbing a strike -- and takes the former NFL linebacker on power, speed and composure at heavyweight, with real takedowns behind it. Rates Chatman as a clean, well-trained technical striker with a UFC future, just not at heavyweight and not yet, because he is too hittable. “This fight was clearly set up for Anthony Wint to get a big win, and Anthony Wint will get a big win.” Track record: winner called in 93 of 145 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
3 of 3 nailed it.
The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.
Pre-fight calls compared with the recorded result. Winner, method and round are scored separately; market context names whether it comes from a qualified sportsbook snapshot or historic market reconstruction.
Actual Wint · Submission · R1
Closest probability ChatGPT put 62% on Wint.
Independent forecasts from ChatGPT and Gemini · latest 20 Aug, 2 days before the fight
Both expect a win by KO/TKO, with win chances from 58% (Gemini) to 62% (ChatGPT).
Method mix differs most for KO/TKO: 70% (Gemini) to 75% (ChatGPT), a 5-point range.
40 of 70 winner picks correct · 57% hit rate
Pick Wint by KO/TKO in round 1
Win probability: Chatman 38%, Wint 62%.
45 of 70 winner picks correct · 64% hit rate
Pick Wint by KO/TKO in round 1
Win probability: Chatman 42%, Wint 58%.
ChatGPT reads the fight as “Wint's unbeaten record and sequence of rapid first-round punch finishes suggest the sharper early finishing threat. Chatman's own knockout power and experience reaching later rounds keep the matchup competitive, but Wint is the more likely fighter to force an early exchange and capitalize.”
Whether Chatman can disrupt Wint's opening surge and extend the fight beyond the first round.
The models differ on probability distribution.
| Detail | ChatGPT | Gemini |
|---|---|---|
| How it endsKO/TKOSubmissionDecisionTop to bottom in each stack | ||
| Round | Round 1 | Round 1 |
| Detail | ChatGPT | Gemini |
|---|---|---|
| How it endsKO/TKOSubmissionDecisionTop to bottom in each stack | ||
| Round | Round 1 | Round 1 |
Pick
Wint's unbeaten record and sequence of rapid first-round punch finishes suggest the sharper early finishing threat. Chatman's own knockout power and experience reaching later rounds keep the matchup competitive, but Wint is the more likely fighter to force an early exchange and capitalize.
Whether Chatman can disrupt Wint's opening surge and extend the fight beyond the first round.
GPT-5 · 20 Aug40 of 70 winner picks correct · 57% hit rate
Pick
Anthony Wint enters undefeated with notable early finishing power demonstrated across consecutive rapid first-round stoppage wins. Terrance Chatman brings valuable experience from extending into deeper rounds alongside diverse finishing tools, but Wint's immediate offensive pressure offers him a slight edge in an explosive heavyweight matchup likely decided in the opening exchanges.
Whether Chatman can navigate Wint's initial first-minute flurry and extend the contest beyond the opening frame.
Gemini · 20 Aug45 of 70 winner picks correct · 64% hit rate
AI-generated · Not betting advice · 18+ (21+ where required) · Gambling help (opens in new tab) ↗
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