Jackson McVey defeats Wes Schultz by KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues
Round 1 · 4:13
McVey vs Schultz · UFC Fight Night
What happened
The result, the defining moments, and what the verdict means.
Schultz chased a guillotine choke in the opening exchanges.
McVey escaped the submission attempt and worked his way to control.
McVey buried a knee into Schultz's midsection, sending him crashing to the canvas in a heap at 4:13 of round one.
- Official UFC preliminary resultsUFC Sacramento preliminary results
Who Called It?
How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.
Analyst picks: JakeGerberMMA perfect call; We Want Picks missed.
1 of 2 called the winner · 1 nailed the finish ★.
The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.
Full analyst picks ↓
JakeGerberMMA Analyst called 44 of 62 JakeGerberMMA: predicted McVey · KO/TKO · R1. Actual McVey · KO/TKO R1. Result: Perfect call.
Frames it as either McVey by TKO or Schultz by submission, and leans McVey on improved takedown defence, his clinch game and his range striking. Expects body work to pay off against an opponent who has slowed in previous fights, then follow-up ground and pound. Openly conflicted -- says he could see it going either way and that the fight is stressing him out.
“I'll give the slight lean to Jackson McVey by um by round one TKO.”
Track record: winner called in 44 of 62 resolved picks, 10 a perfect call.
We Want Picks Betting desk called 55 of 87 We Want Picks: predicted Schultz · to win. Actual McVey · KO/TKO R1. Result: Miss.
Grants McVey the size and the clearly better striking, then discounts it on takedown defence: if Schultz shows up as the All-American wrestler rather than pulling guard as he did against Penaaz, he can repeat the success Zac Reese had against McVey. Rates neither man highly and sides with whoever can control where the fight happens.
“So, I'm going to side with the wrestler here. The striking doesn't matter if you can't keep the fight on the feet.”
Track record: winner called in 55 of 87 resolved picks.
AI Predictions — Results
Pre-fight calls compared with the recorded result; draws and no contests are not scored.
Archive Pre-fight material — kept for transparency.
- 7-2-0
- Record
- 9-3-0
- 3-2 last 5
- Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
- 4-1 last 5
- —
- StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
- —
- —
- Takedown defenseTD def.Takedown defenseThe percentage of opponents’ takedown attempts that are stuffed. Higher means harder to put on the mat. From UFC/FightMetric.
- —
- 04:09
- Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
- 06:17
- United States
- Nationality
- United States
- The MMA Lab
- Team
- Pura Vida BJJ & MMA
Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Numbers reflect records coming into fight night. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.
Pre-fight analysis — how we saw it going in
Case for McVey
Every one of McVey's seven wins is a finish — three knockouts, four submissions — and he averages 04:09 a fight. He lands 6.51 significant strikes per minute, and his route is to end this before it becomes a contest.
Case for Schultz
Schultz has submitted six of his nine opponents and throws 3.59 submission attempts per 15 minutes alongside 2.39 takedowns. His route is to get hold of McVey rather than trade with him.
What We Were Watching For
- Neither man has much use for the judges — 100% and 89% finish rates, at 04:09 and 06:17 average fight time.
- McVey's 24% striking defence is the lowest on the card, though Schultz lands only 2.91 per minute to test it.
- Schultz's 3.59 submission attempts per 15 minutes against a man carrying four submission wins of his own.
- McVey has never recorded a takedown (0.00 per 15 minutes); Schultz averages 2.39.
AI Predictions — pre-fight snapshot
AI Predictions
3 frontier models, same brief, independently — and the brief contains no betting line.
The Read
Latest snapshot · T-3
3 frontier models used the same brief independently. The brief contained no betting line.
3 of 3 models favour Schultz. The combined forecast puts 51% on Submission as the likeliest finish.
ChatGPT reads the fight as “Schultz is the narrow pick in a volatile matchup between BJJ-oriented middleweights. His broader record and varied recent submission wins suggest slightly more finishing upside, though McVey's own grappling threat keeps the forecast close.”
What to watch
- Schultz has the more experienced overall record
- Both fighters present credible submission threats
- McVey's recent results suggest high grappling volatility
Swing factor
The fighter who controls the transitions without conceding a choke or leg entanglement may dictate the outcome.
Where the models differ
The models agree on the winner, finish method, round call, and confidence. The full model calls are below.
- ChatGPTSchultz · Submission · Round 2 · low confidence
- ClaudeSchultz · Submission · Round 2 · low confidence
- GeminiSchultz · Submission · Round 2 · low confidence
Agreement All 3 of 3 models pick Schultz.
Method outlook KO/TKO 20% · Submission 51% · Decision 29%.
Model spread 43%–46% McVey · 54%–57% Schultz.
ChatGPT
GPT-5 · via Codex CLI · 2026-08-20
Overall win probability
Winner probability by method
Combined probability is shown in the rail centre; corner shares sit at the ends.
Pick
Wes Schultz
How ChatGPT sees the fight
Schultz is the narrow pick in a volatile matchup between BJJ-oriented middleweights. His broader record and varied recent submission wins suggest slightly more finishing upside, though McVey's own grappling threat keeps the forecast close.
Keys to victory
- Schultz has the more experienced overall record
- Both fighters present credible submission threats
- McVey's recent results suggest high grappling volatility
X-factor
The fighter who controls the transitions without conceding a choke or leg entanglement may dictate the outcome.
Claude
Claude · via Claude CLI · 2026-08-20
Overall win probability
Winner probability by method
Combined probability is shown in the rail centre; corner shares sit at the ends.
Pick
Wes Schultz
How Claude sees the fight
Two BJJ-based middleweights with recent finishes on both ends of the submission game meet in a bout that could plausibly end on the mat. Schultz gets a slight nod for showing he can both finish and be finished, while McVey's last two losses both came via submission, which may raise questions about his grappling defense against another credentialed submission threat. Given the stylistic overlap and inconsistent recent form on both sides, this projects as a competitive, finish-live matchup rather than a clear favorite.
Keys to victory
- Both fighters are submission-first grapplers with finishes via choke in their last three outings, pointing toward a fight that may not see the final horn.
- McVey has been submitted in each of his last two losses, raising questions about his ability to defend against another skilled grappler.
- Schultz has recorded submission finishes in both the first and third rounds.
X-factor
Whichever fighter establishes control first may dictate the grappling exchanges between the two listed BJJ styles.
Gemini
Gemini · via AGY CLI · 2026-08-20
Overall win probability
Winner probability by method
Combined probability is shown in the rail centre; corner shares sit at the ends.
Pick
Wes Schultz
How Gemini sees the fight
This middleweight bout pairs two BJJ-based fighters with recent submission results. Wes Schultz has recorded first- and third-round submission wins, while Jackson McVey earned a first-round choke after two submission losses. Those supplied results give Schultz a slight edge in a matchup likely to feature grappling exchanges.
Keys to victory
- Both fighters show a strong tendency to pursue submissions and engage actively in ground exchanges.
- Schultz has shown the ability to lock in finishes late into bouts as well as in the opening round.
- McVey carries dangerous early submission offense but has also been vulnerable to submissions when defending.
X-factor
The opening takedown and scramble will be crucial in dictating who controls top position and forces submission defense.
AI-generated · Not betting advice · 18+ (21+ where required) · Gambling help (opens in new tab) ↗
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