UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues  22 Aug 2026 · Golden 1 Center, Sacramento, California, US

Jackson McVey defeats Wes Schultz by KO/TKO

Win The Moose Jackson McVey View profile 8-2-0
Loss Party Time Wes Schultz View profile 9-4-0
KO/TKO · knee to the body and punches

Round 1 · 4:13

McVey vs Schultz · UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues

At a glance

Analysts, AI and market side by side. Open a tab for the detail.

Analyst picksAI forecastsMarket odds

What happened

The result, the defining moments, and what the verdict means.

Schultz chased a guillotine choke in the opening exchanges.

McVey escaped the submission attempt and worked his way to control.

McVey buried a knee into Schultz's midsection, sending him crashing to the canvas in a heap at 4:13 of round one.

Pre-fight analysis — how we saw it going in

Case for McVey

Every one of McVey's seven wins is a finish — three knockouts, four submissions — and he averages 04:09 a fight. He lands 6.51 significant strikes per minute, and his route is to end this before it becomes a contest.

Case for Schultz

Schultz has submitted six of his nine opponents and throws 3.59 submission attempts per 15 minutes alongside 2.39 takedowns. His route is to get hold of McVey rather than trade with him.

What We Were Watching For

  • Neither man has much use for the judges — 100% and 89% finish rates, at 04:09 and 06:17 average fight time.
  • McVey's 24% striking defence is the lowest on the card, though Schultz lands only 2.91 per minute to test it.
  • Schultz's 3.59 submission attempts per 15 minutes against a man carrying four submission wins of his own.
  • McVey has never recorded a takedown (0.00 per 15 minutes); Schultz averages 2.39.
Records & career stats
McVey vs Schultz
7-2-0
Record
9-3-0
3-2 last 5
Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
4-1 last 5
United States
Nationality
United States
27
Age
29
1.93 m
Height — McVey leads
1.85 m
196 cm
Reach
196 cm
—
StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
—
100%
Finish rateFinish % — McVey leadsFinish rateThe share of a fighter’s wins that ended inside the distance — by KO/TKO or submission — rather than going to the judges’ scorecards. Higher means more finishes.
89%
4
Wins by KO/TKOKO wins — McVey leads
2
4
Wins by submissionSub wins — Schultz leads
6
7.14
Sig. strikes landed / minStr / min — McVey leadsSignificant strikes landed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter lands for every minute of fight time — a read on striking output and pace. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
3.31
3.96
Sig. strikes absorbed / minAbs / minSignificant strikes absorbed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter takes for every minute of fight time. Lower is better — it means they get hit less often. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
3.96
33%
Striking defenseStrike def. — Schultz leadsStriking defenseThe percentage of opponents’ significant strikes that do not land — strikes slipped, blocked or evaded. Higher is better. Not the same as striking accuracy, which counts your own strikes that land. From UFC/FightMetric.
46%
—
Takedown defenseTD def.Takedown defenseThe percentage of opponents’ takedown attempts that are stuffed. Higher means harder to put on the mat. From UFC/FightMetric.
—
04:10
Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
05:52
The MMA Lab
Team
Pura Vida BJJ & MMA

Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Numbers reflect the fighter data snapshot used for this page. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.

Who Called It?

How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.

Analyst picks: MMA JOEY Hit; JakeGerberMMA Hit; The MMA Guru Hit; We Want Picks Miss.

Analyst prediction scorecards
Expand row
MMA JOEY96 resolved calls
Historic market Favourite call, market price 62.5%. McVey · KO/TKO · R1McVey · KO/TKO R1HitHitHit
JakeGerberMMA116 resolved calls
Historic market Favourite call, market price 62.5%. McVey · KO/TKO · R1McVey · KO/TKO R1HitHitHit
The MMA Guru296 resolved calls
Historic market Favourite call, market price 62.5%. McVey · KO/TKOMcVey · KO/TKO R1HitHitNot called
We Want Picks145 resolved calls
Historic market Underdog call, market price 37.5%. Schultz · to winMcVey · KO/TKO R1MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed

3 of 4 nailed it.

The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.

AI Predictions — Results

Pre-fight calls compared with the recorded result. Winner, method and round are scored separately; market context names whether it comes from a qualified sportsbook snapshot or historic market reconstruction.

Actual McVey · KO/TKO · R1

Closest probability Claude and Gemini put 46% on McVey.

ChatGPT40 of 70 winner picks correct · 57% hit rate
43% McVey
57% Schultz
PickSchultz · Submission · R2ActualMcVey · KO/TKO · R1
WinnerMissMethodNot applicable — the winner call missedRoundNot applicable — the winner call missedHistoric market underdogMissHistoric market underdog: UnderdogThe selected fighter had a lower market-implied chance of winning. This underdog call was a miss.Historic market underdog: underdog call, miss
Claude41 of 64 winner picks correct · 64% hit rate
46% McVey
54% Schultz
PickSchultz · Submission · R2ActualMcVey · KO/TKO · R1
WinnerMissMethodNot applicable — the winner call missedRoundNot applicable — the winner call missedHistoric market underdogMissHistoric market underdog: UnderdogThe selected fighter had a lower market-implied chance of winning. This underdog call was a miss.Historic market underdog: underdog call, miss
Gemini45 of 70 winner picks correct · 64% hit rate
46% McVey
54% Schultz
PickSchultz · Submission · R2ActualMcVey · KO/TKO · R1
WinnerMissMethodNot applicable — the winner call missedRoundNot applicable — the winner call missedHistoric market underdogMissHistoric market underdog: UnderdogThe selected fighter had a lower market-implied chance of winning. This underdog call was a miss.Historic market underdog: underdog call, miss
AI Predictions — pre-fight snapshot

AI Predictions

Independent forecasts from ChatGPT, Claude and Gemini · latest 20 Aug, 2 days before the fight

All 3 models pick Schultz

All three expect a win by submission, with win chances from 54% (Claude and Gemini) to 57% (ChatGPT).

Method mix differs most for Decision: 24% (Gemini) to 32% (Claude), a 8-point range.

  • ChatGPT

    40 of 70 winner picks correct · 57% hit rate

    Pick Schultz by submission in round 2

    Win probability: McVey 43%, Schultz 57%.

    GPT-5 · 20 Aug

    Low confidence

  • Claude

    41 of 64 winner picks correct · 64% hit rate

    Pick Schultz by submission in round 2

    Win probability: McVey 46%, Schultz 54%.

    Claude · 20 Aug

    Low confidence

  • Gemini

    45 of 70 winner picks correct · 64% hit rate

    Pick Schultz by submission in round 2

    Win probability: McVey 46%, Schultz 54%.

    Gemini · 20 Aug

    Low confidence

ChatGPT reads the fight as “Schultz is the narrow pick in a volatile matchup between BJJ-oriented middleweights. His broader record and varied recent submission wins suggest slightly more finishing upside, though McVey's own grappling threat keeps the forecast close.”

What to watch

  • Schultz has the more experienced overall record
  • Both fighters present credible submission threats
  • McVey's recent results suggest high grappling volatility

Swing factor

The fighter who controls the transitions without conceding a choke or leg entanglement may dictate the outcome.

More detail1 area differs

The models differ on probability distribution.

Forecast comparison by model
DetailChatGPTClaudeGemini
How it endsKO/TKOSubmissionDecisionTop to bottom in each stack
RoundRound 2Round 2Round 2
Forecast comparison by model
DetailChatGPTClaudeGemini
How it endsKO/TKOSubmissionDecisionTop to bottom in each stack
RoundRound 2Round 2Round 2

ChatGPT

Pick

Schultz by submission in round 2

Low confidenceConfidence labelBased on the higher win probability: Low below 58%, Medium 58–69%, High 70% or more. This is a coarse probability band, not a separate calibrated score.
Win probability: McVey 43%, Schultz 57%

Winner probability by method

KO/TKO, 18% overall: McVey 8%, Schultz 10%
Submission, 52% overall: McVey 21%, Schultz 31%
Decision, 30% overall: McVey 14%, Schultz 16%

How ChatGPT sees the fight

Schultz is the narrow pick in a volatile matchup between BJJ-oriented middleweights. His broader record and varied recent submission wins suggest slightly more finishing upside, though McVey's own grappling threat keeps the forecast close.

Keys to victory

  • Schultz has the more experienced overall record
  • Both fighters present credible submission threats
  • McVey's recent results suggest high grappling volatility

X-factor

The fighter who controls the transitions without conceding a choke or leg entanglement may dictate the outcome.

GPT-5 · 20 Aug40 of 70 winner picks correct · 57% hit rate

Claude

Pick

Schultz by submission in round 2

Low confidenceConfidence labelBased on the higher win probability: Low below 58%, Medium 58–69%, High 70% or more. This is a coarse probability band, not a separate calibrated score.
Win probability: McVey 46%, Schultz 54%

Winner probability by method

KO/TKO, 20% overall: McVey 8%, Schultz 12%
Submission, 48% overall: McVey 20%, Schultz 28%
Decision, 32% overall: McVey 18%, Schultz 14%

How Claude sees the fight

Two BJJ-based middleweights with recent finishes on both ends of the submission game meet in a bout that could plausibly end on the mat. Schultz gets a slight nod for showing he can both finish and be finished, while McVey's last two losses both came via submission, which may raise questions about his grappling defense against another credentialed submission threat. Given the stylistic overlap and inconsistent recent form on both sides, this projects as a competitive, finish-live matchup rather than a clear favorite.

Keys to victory

  • Both fighters are submission-first grapplers with finishes via choke in their last three outings, pointing toward a fight that may not see the final horn.
  • McVey has been submitted in each of his last two losses, raising questions about his ability to defend against another skilled grappler.
  • Schultz has recorded submission finishes in both the first and third rounds.

X-factor

Whichever fighter establishes control first may dictate the grappling exchanges between the two listed BJJ styles.

Claude · 20 Aug41 of 64 winner picks correct · 64% hit rate

Gemini

Pick

Schultz by submission in round 2

Low confidenceConfidence labelBased on the higher win probability: Low below 58%, Medium 58–69%, High 70% or more. This is a coarse probability band, not a separate calibrated score.
Win probability: McVey 46%, Schultz 54%

Winner probability by method

KO/TKO, 22% overall: McVey 10%, Schultz 12%
Submission, 54% overall: McVey 24%, Schultz 30%
Decision, 24% overall: McVey 12%, Schultz 12%

How Gemini sees the fight

This middleweight bout pairs two BJJ-based fighters with recent submission results. Wes Schultz has recorded first- and third-round submission wins, while Jackson McVey earned a first-round choke after two submission losses. Those supplied results give Schultz a slight edge in a matchup likely to feature grappling exchanges.

Keys to victory

  • Both fighters show a strong tendency to pursue submissions and engage actively in ground exchanges.
  • Schultz has shown the ability to lock in finishes late into bouts as well as in the opening round.
  • McVey carries dangerous early submission offense but has also been vulnerable to submissions when defending.

X-factor

The opening takedown and scramble will be crucial in dictating who controls top position and forces submission defense.

Gemini · 20 Aug45 of 70 winner picks correct · 64% hit rate

AI-generated · Not betting advice · 18+ (21+ where required) · Gambling help (opens in new tab) ↗

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