UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues
Round 3 · 1:42
Analysts, AI and market side by side. Open a tab for the detail.
The result, the defining moments, and what the verdict means.
Dyer dominated from the start, using speed and power advantages to control the pace.
She never allowed the veteran Reed to find her footing, punishing her at every turn.
The referee stepped in as Dyer unloaded along the fence at 1:42 of round three.
Dyer lands 7.71 significant strikes per minute to Reed's 3.41 and has stopped five of her seven opponents. With 100% takedown defence facing a woman who shoots 0.46 times per 15 minutes, her route is simply to keep the fight where it already is.
Reed has gone to the judges in six of her eight wins and finishes only 25% of the time, so her route runs through the scorecards. She needs Dyer working at a pace Dyer has not yet had to sustain.
Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Numbers reflect the fighter data snapshot used for this page. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.
How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.
How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls
How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls
How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls
How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls
Analyst picks: MMA JOEY Hit; JakeGerberMMA Hit; The MMA Guru Hit; We Want Picks Hit.
| Expand row | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MMA JOEY
MMA JOEYView full track record
How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls | Historic market Favourite call, market price 87.5%. Dyer · KO/TKO · R2 | Dyer · KO/TKO R3 | Hit | Hit | Miss | |
| Picks Shanelle Dyer to win. “So I'm going Dyer. I'll say second round TKO.” Track record: winner called in 66 of 96 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
JakeGerberMMA
JakeGerberMMAView full track record
How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls | Historic market Favourite call, market price 87.5%. Dyer · KO/TKO · R2 | Dyer · KO/TKO R3 | Hit | Hit | Miss | |
| Sees Dyer walking Reed down, blasting leg kicks, attacking the body and bringing combinations around the guard until Reed melts along the fence and the referee steps in. Rates Reed as technical but not dangerous enough to trouble Dyer, and says Dyer's ground game concerns are overstated -- she could equally outstrike Reed comfortably over fifteen minutes. “Give me Chanel Dyer by round two knockout.” Track record: winner called in 77 of 116 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
The MMA Guru
The MMA GuruView full track record
How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls | Historic market Favourite call, market price 87.5%. Dyer · KO/TKO | Dyer · KO/TKO R3 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
| Picks Shanaelle Dyer to win by stoppage. “So, I'm going to go with Shanaelle Dyer getting this one by TKO.” Track record: winner called in 195 of 296 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
We Want Picks
We Want PicksView full track record
How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls | Historic market Favourite call, market price 87.5%. Dyer · to win | Dyer · KO/TKO R3 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
| Calls it a bad stylistic match-up for Reed rather than a knock on her: Dyer is bigger, more powerful, the better striker, and good enough defensively to stop Reed turning it into a wrestling match. Cannot find a route for Reed on the feet, into a clean takedown, or through the power. “So, I think Chanel Dyer wins this fight.” Track record: winner called in 93 of 145 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
4 of 4 nailed it.
The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.
Pre-fight calls compared with the recorded result. Winner, method and round are scored separately; market context names whether it comes from a qualified sportsbook snapshot or historic market reconstruction.
Actual Dyer · KO/TKO · R3
Closest probability Gemini put 62% on Dyer.
Independent forecasts from ChatGPT, Claude and Gemini · latest 20 Aug, 2 days before the fight
They differ on how the fight ends, with win chances from 57% (ChatGPT) to 62% (Gemini).
Method mix differs most for Decision: 40% (Claude) to 63% (Gemini), a 23-point range.
40 of 70 winner picks correct · 57% hit rate
Pick Dyer by decision
Win probability: Dyer 57%, Reed 43%.
41 of 64 winner picks correct · 64% hit rate
Pick Dyer by KO/TKO in round 2
Win probability: Dyer 58%, Reed 42%.
45 of 70 winner picks correct · 64% hit rate
Pick Dyer by decision
Win probability: Dyer 62%, Reed 38%.
ChatGPT reads the fight as “Dyer's Muay Thai offense and stronger recent trajectory give her a narrow edge, but Reed's Taekwondo striking and broader record could keep the contest competitive. A close decision is the most plausible outcome, with Dyer's damaging exchanges potentially separating the rounds.”
Whether Reed can maintain distance consistently enough to prevent Dyer from controlling the exchanges.
The models differ on finish method, round timing, probability distribution.
| Detail | ChatGPT | Claude | Gemini |
|---|---|---|---|
| How it endsKO/TKOSubmissionDecisionTop to bottom in each stack | |||
| Round | — | Round 2 | — |
| Detail | ChatGPT | Claude | Gemini |
|---|---|---|---|
| How it endsKO/TKOSubmissionDecisionTop to bottom in each stack | |||
| Round | — | Round 2 | — |
Pick
Dyer's Muay Thai offense and stronger recent trajectory give her a narrow edge, but Reed's Taekwondo striking and broader record could keep the contest competitive. A close decision is the most plausible outcome, with Dyer's damaging exchanges potentially separating the rounds.
Whether Reed can maintain distance consistently enough to prevent Dyer from controlling the exchanges.
GPT-5 · 20 Aug40 of 70 winner picks correct · 57% hit rate
Pick
Dyer enters after a knee-and-punches stoppage, while Reed's listed recent results include a second-round TKO loss, a decision win, and a submission loss. Both fighters have striking-based styles, so the matchup may be decided by who creates the clearer exchanges over three rounds.
Reed's Taekwondo-based kicking range could help her control distance and offset Dyer's Muay Thai pressure if she can keep the fight at the outside.
Claude · 20 Aug41 of 64 winner picks correct · 64% hit rate
Pick
Shanelle Dyer enters after a recent stoppage win, bringing a Muay Thai style into a matchup against Taekwondo-based striker Elise Reed. Reed holds the larger overall record, while Dyer's recent TKO supplies the clearer current finishing result. Their listed styles point toward a striking matchup over three rounds.
Range control and cage positioning, specifically whether Dyer can corner Reed to land heavy inside strikes or if Reed can keep the fight at kicking range in open space.
Gemini · 20 Aug45 of 70 winner picks correct · 64% hit rate
AI-generated · Not betting advice · 18+ (21+ where required) · Gambling help (opens in new tab) ↗
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