UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues
Round 3 · 5:00
Analysts, AI and market side by side. Open a tab for the detail.
The result, the defining moments, and what the verdict means.
The heavyweights traded on the feet early, with Petrino's power giving him the edge in the exchanges.
Petrino took Spivac down in rounds two and three, forcing him to carry his weight on the mat.
Petrino chipped away with short shots while both exhausted heavyweights had little left to offer down the stretch.
Spivac is the one heavyweight here who wrestles with intent — 3.82 takedowns per 15 minutes, second only to Hernandez on this card — and 8 of his 18 wins are submissions. His route is underneath Petrino early rather than trading.
Petrino holds 79% takedown defence and absorbs 2.71 significant strikes per minute to Spivac's 4.23. His route is to stay vertical and win the striking exchange he is already ahead in.
Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Numbers reflect the fighter data snapshot used for this page. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.
How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.
How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls
How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls
How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls
How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls
How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls
Analyst picks: MMA JOEY Hit; JakeGerberMMA Miss; We Want Picks Miss; Andrew Richardson Miss; Jesse Holland Hit.
| Expand row | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MMA JOEY
MMA JOEYView full track record
How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls | Historic market Favourite call, market price 58.5%. Petrino · KO/TKO · R2 | Petrino · Dec R3 | Hit | Miss | Miss | |
| Picks Vitor Petrino to win. “I'll pick Petrino to get him out of there. I'll say late second round TKO for Vitor Petrino.” Track record: winner called in 66 of 96 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
JakeGerberMMA
JakeGerberMMAView full track record
How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls | Historic market Underdog call, market price 41.5%. Spivac · to win | Petrino · Dec R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
| Takes Spivac as the underdog, rating him a well-rounded heavyweight with sharp striking and calling the jab money against Delija. Expects him to outscore Petrino with the jab, right hand and leg kicks provided he avoids a big shot, and notes Petrino is very hittable. Adds that Spivac has the grappling fallback Petrino lacks if the striking goes badly. “Give me Sergey here.” Track record: winner called in 77 of 116 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
We Want Picks
We Want PicksView full track record
How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls | Historic market Underdog call, market price 41.5%. Spivac · to win | Petrino · Dec R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
| Takes Spivac as an underdog on grit and heavyweight experience: reads Petrino as an athlete who became a fighter rather than a fighter, and expects Spivac -- ten times the grappler of Petrino's last opponent -- to work in his own takedowns. Flags the one real concern that at heavyweight raw athleticism alone can still win a fight or two. “So, Sergey Spivak is going to be the pick.” Track record: winner called in 93 of 145 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
Andrew Richardson
Andrew RichardsonView full track record
How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls | Historic market Underdog call, market price 41.5%. Spivac · Dec | Petrino · Dec R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
| MMA Mania's UFC Sacramento X-Factor preview has Andrew Richardson picking Serghei Spivac by decision. Track record: winner called in 30 of 52 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
Jesse Holland
Jesse HollandView full track record
How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls | Historic market Favourite call, market price 58.5%. Petrino · KO/TKO | Petrino · Dec R3 | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
| MMA Mania's UFC Sacramento preview has Jesse Holland picking Vitor Petrino by technical knockout. Track record: winner called in 26 of 53 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
2 of 5 called the winner.
The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.
Pre-fight calls compared with the recorded result. Winner, method and round are scored separately; market context names whether it comes from a qualified sportsbook snapshot or historic market reconstruction.
Actual Petrino · Decision · R3
Closest probability ChatGPT put 58% on Petrino.
Independent forecasts from ChatGPT, Claude and Gemini · latest 20 Aug, 2 days before the fight
They differ on how the fight ends, with win chances from 55% (Claude and Gemini) to 58% (ChatGPT).
Method mix differs most for KO/TKO: 32% (ChatGPT) to 45% (Gemini), a 13-point range.
40 of 70 winner picks correct · 57% hit rate
Pick Petrino by decision
Win probability: Spivac 42%, Petrino 58%.
41 of 64 winner picks correct · 64% hit rate
Pick Petrino by decision
Win probability: Spivac 45%, Petrino 55%.
45 of 70 winner picks correct · 64% hit rate
Pick Petrino by KO/TKO in round 2
Win probability: Spivac 45%, Petrino 55%.
ChatGPT reads the fight as “Petrino’s varied three-fight winning run and striking profile give him a slight edge in a competitive heavyweight matchup. Spivac’s sambo remains a meaningful control and submission threat, but Petrino may do enough damage and sustained work to earn a decision if he manages the grappling exchanges.”
Whether Spivac can repeatedly turn striking exchanges into sustained top control.
The models differ on finish method, round timing, probability distribution.
| Detail | ChatGPT | Claude | Gemini |
|---|---|---|---|
| How it endsKO/TKOSubmissionDecisionTop to bottom in each stack | |||
| Round | — | — | Round 2 |
| Detail | ChatGPT | Claude | Gemini |
|---|---|---|---|
| How it endsKO/TKOSubmissionDecisionTop to bottom in each stack | |||
| Round | — | — | Round 2 |
Pick
Petrino’s varied three-fight winning run and striking profile give him a slight edge in a competitive heavyweight matchup. Spivac’s sambo remains a meaningful control and submission threat, but Petrino may do enough damage and sustained work to earn a decision if he manages the grappling exchanges.
Whether Spivac can repeatedly turn striking exchanges into sustained top control.
GPT-5 · 20 Aug40 of 70 winner picks correct · 57% hit rate
Pick
Petrino enters on a three-fight win streak that includes a decision, a knockout, and a submission. Spivac's listed sambo style provides a contrasting route, while his recent results include a decision win, a decision loss, and a first-round TKO loss. Petrino's varied recent wins give him the slight edge in a competitive three-round matchup.
How quickly Spivac can initiate clinch and takedown exchanges may determine whether this becomes a grinding control fight rather than a striking contest favoring Petrino.
Claude · 20 Aug41 of 64 winner picks correct · 64% hit rate
Pick
This heavyweight contest features a stylistic clash between Serghei Spivac's listed sambo style and Vitor Petrino's listed striking style. Petrino enters after decision, knockout, and submission wins, while Spivac's recent results include two decisions and a TKO loss. Petrino's varied winning run gives him the narrow edge and a plausible stoppage route.
Whether Spivac's sambo route can disrupt Petrino's varied recent winning form
Gemini · 20 Aug45 of 70 winner picks correct · 64% hit rate
AI-generated · Not betting advice · 18+ (21+ where required) · Gambling help (opens in new tab) ↗
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