UFC-focused YouTuber covering full-card predictions, rankings, and fight-week analysis.
MMA JOEY on YouTube ↗Scorecard
Called 18 of 27 resolved picks — every call traced to its source, no bare percentage. How Track Record works.
- Winner 18 9
- Method 6 10
- Round 2 10
- Underdog 4 3
Hit Miss
The running record
Every figure below is cumulative — computed over all resolved calls up to and including each card, never one card on its own. A cumulative rate settles as the denominator grows, so its flattening is arithmetic, not a verdict: read where a line sits, and read the vs. the field strip for whether this analyst gained or lost ground on the rest of the roster. Winner is scored on every resolved call; method, round and underdog each have a different and much smaller base, printed beside each one.
Hit Miss Field median Gap to the field
MMA JOEY scored 74.5 after 4 cards, against a ranked field spanning 59.7 to 92.5. Also plotted: TheWeasle (#1), JakeGerberMMA (#10), Half The Battle (#12).
74.5 now, across 4 cards. The first 3 cards are drawn dashed and hollow: below 20 resolved calls there is no published score yet. The shaded band is where the whole ranked field sits — 59.7 to 92.5 across 18 analysts, this one included.
18 of 27 — 67% now, from 77% at their first scored card.
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Method
38% 6 of 16 correct winners that named a method
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Round
17% 2 of 12 correct winners that named a round
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Underdog
57% 4 of 7 priced underdog calls
The opening points are drawn dashed and hollow: below 5 scored calls this rate is not yet a reliable figure.
Card by card
Newest card first — the charts above run oldest to newest. One mark per scored call, hits above the line and misses below. Every call is listed in Call History, below.
- UFC 330 74.5 5 hit · 6 miss
- Du Plessis vs. Usman 89.7 1 hit · 0 miss
- UFC 329 88.9 2 hit · 0 miss
- UFC Baku 85.2 10 hit · 3 miss
Call History
Every logged call, grouped by event, scored on Winner, Method, and Round — nothing about a result ever sits behind a click.
underdog pick favourite pick — shown only for picks with a known pre-fight price. The percentage is the chance the market gave the fighter this analyst picked. Open a row for the price’s source and the credit it earned.
Silva vs. Delgado
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aldrich vs Tarin | Tarin · Dec | Upcoming | |||
| King vs Rosas | Rosas · Dec | Upcoming | |||
| Garcia vs Rongzhu | Garcia · Dec | Upcoming | |||
| Klose vs Gantt | Gantt · KO/TKO · R2 | Upcoming | |||
| Belgaroui vs Santos | Belgaroui · KO/TKO · R1 | Upcoming | |||
| Bahamondes vs Salikhov | Bahamondes · KO/TKO · R3 | Upcoming | |||
| Elliott vs Chairez | Chairez · Sub · R1 | Upcoming | |||
| Martinez vs Ige | Martinez · Dec | Upcoming | |||
| Cortes-Acosta vs Blaydes | Cortes-Acosta · KO/TKO · R2 | Upcoming | |||
| Fiorot vs Grasso | Fiorot · Dec | Upcoming | |||
| McMillen vs Rahiki | McMillen · Dec | Upcoming | |||
| Moreno vs Morales | Morales · Sub · R2 | Upcoming | |||
| Silva vs Delgado | Silva · KO/TKO · R1 | Upcoming | |||
UFC 330
Makhachev vs. Machado Garry
Event scorecard
- Winner 5 6
- Method 3 2
- Round 3
- Underdog 1 2
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Favourite call, market price 87.5%. Orolbai · Sub · R2 | Wells · Sub R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Picks Orolbai by second-round rear-naked choke after expecting him to control Wells. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 87.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 58.5%. Brahimaj · Dec | Magny · KO/TKO R2 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Calls a 29-28 Brahimaj decision. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 58.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 72.5%. Fernando · KO/TKO · R1 | Fernando · KO/TKO R3 | Hit | Hit | Miss | |
Picks Fernando by first-round knockout. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 72.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 49.5%. Gore · KO/TKO · R2 | Gore · Dec R3 | Hit | Miss | Miss | |
Final selection is Gore by second-round knockout; the earlier Luque finish discussion is counterfactual. Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 49.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Underdog credit earned: 0.01 — (50% − 49.5%) ÷ 50%. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 75.5%. Johnson · Dec | Johnson · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
Takes Johnson by decision, a call restated later in the segment. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 75.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 48.5%. Fernandes · KO/TKO · R2 | Turner · KO/TKO R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Picks Fernandes by late second-round TKO. Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 48.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Underdog credit earned: 0.00 — credit is earned only on a correct call. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 73.5%. Álvarez · Sub · R1 | Njokuani · Dec R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Picks Álvarez by first-round guillotine submission in the replacement-aware matchup segment. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 73.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 85.5%. Ribovics · KO/TKO · R1 | Ribovics · KO/TKO R2 | Hit | Hit | Miss | |
Calls Ribovics by first-round knockout. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 85.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 85.5%. Abdul-Malik · KO/TKO · R2 | Stoltzfus · Sub R2 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Calls Abdul-Malik by second-round ground-and-pound TKO. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 85.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 63.5%. Dern · Dec | Dern · Dec R5 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Final call is Dern by decision. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 63.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 26.5%. Machado Garry · Dec | Makhachev · Dec R5 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Final call is Garry by decision. Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 26.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Underdog credit earned: 0.00 — credit is earned only on a correct call. | |||||
Du Plessis vs. Usman
Event scorecard
- Winner 1
- Method 1
- Round 1
- Underdog 1
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Underdog call, market price 47.5%. Elliot · Sub · R2 | Elliot · Dec | Hit | Miss | Miss | |
Picks Elliot by second-round rear-naked choke, citing two more pro fights and, in his view, slightly more experienced opposition. Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 47.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Underdog credit earned: 0.05 — (50% − 47.5%) ÷ 50%. | |||||
UFC 329
McGregor vs. Holloway 2
Event scorecard
- Winner 2
- Method 2
- Round 1 1
- UnderdogNo underdog calls with a known pre-fight price
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Favourite call, market price 67.5%. Costa · KO/TKO · R2 | Costa · Sub R2 | Hit | Miss | Hit | |
Frames Costa as the much better striker with the strength and takedown defense to punish Durden's wrestling-first game. He expects Costa to rip the body, stuff enough shots, hurt Durden in round two and finish with ground-and-pound. “I'm picking Costa second round TKO.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 67.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 85.5%. Basharat · Sub · R2 | Basharat · Dec | Hit | Miss | Miss | |
Notes that Garza is stepping in on short notice from Fury FC and calls the original Ethyn Ewing matchup tougher. He sees Basharat as the more polished, well-rounded fighter with the takedowns and jiu-jitsu to finally find a finish. “I'll say second round arm triangle for Farad Basherat.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 85.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
UFC Baku
Fiziev vs. Torres
Event scorecard
- Winner 10 3
- Method 3 5
- Round 1 5
- Underdog 2 1
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Underdog call, market price 42.5%. Abdullayev · Sub · R2 | Abdullayev · KO/TKO R3 | Hit | Miss | Miss | |
MMA Joey picks Abdullayev largely on the short-notice/home-region setup, expecting his recent choke-finishing form to show up against a Nascimento turning around quickly.
Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 42.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Underdog credit earned: 0.15 — (50% − 42.5%) ÷ 50%. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 39.5%. Almakhan · Dec | Matsumoto · Dec R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
MMA Joey says Almakhan is being underrated because his UFC losses came against elite opposition, and expects his cleaner boxing plus grappling mix to edge a competitive decision. Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 39.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Underdog credit earned: 0.00 — credit is earned only on a correct call. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 82.5%. Donchenko · KO/TKO · R1 | Donchenko · KO/TKO R2 | Hit | Hit | Miss | |
MMA Joey treats Donchenko as the prepared, more dangerous finisher against a short-notice replacement and calls for a first-round knockout. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 82.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 69.5%. Reyes · KO/TKO · R2 | Ofli · Sub R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
MMA Joey takes Reyes by second-round TKO, expecting him to be the better boxer and powerful enough to punish Ofli after defending enough grappling. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 69.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 62.5%. Ruziboev · Dec | Ruziboev · Sub R1 | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
MMA Joey believes in Ruziboev's UFC-level finishing threat but settles on a decision call, trusting him as the more proven side. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 62.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 83.5%. Yakhyaev · to win | Yakhyaev · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
MMA Joey calls this a setup fight for Yakhyaev and expects the undefeated prospect to get it done without overcomplicating the pick. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 83.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 59.5%. Hasanov · Dec | Hasanov · Dec R3 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
MMA Joey picks Hasanov by decision in a low-confidence read, trusting the local fighter to do enough over fifteen minutes. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 59.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Magomedov · KO/TKO · R2 | Magomedov · Sub R1 | Hit | Miss | Miss | |
MMA Joey takes Abus by early second-round TKO, expecting his speed, power and front-loaded offense to beat Oleksiejczuk before the cardio danger fully arrives. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 70.5%. Aliskerov · KO/TKO · R1 | Aliskerov · Dec R3 | Hit | Miss | Miss | |
MMA Joey picks Aliskerov by first-round knockout, trusting his power and top-level experience to show before Ferreira can turn it into a brawl. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 70.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 73.5%. Almabayev · to win | Almabayev · Sub R3 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
MMA Joey picks Almabayev because his chain wrestling and grappling are the clearest repeatable edge against Johnson. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 73.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 61.5%. Sadykhov · KO/TKO · R2 | Camilo · KO/TKO R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
MMA Joey takes Sadykhov by second-round TKO, expecting his confidence, pace and boxing to overwhelm Camilo as the fight settles. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 61.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 76.5%. Magomedov · KO/TKO · R3 | Magomedov · Dec R3 | Hit | Miss | Miss | |
MMA Joey picks Shara by third-round TKO, expecting Pereira to fade badly and get stopped after the early explosiveness is gone. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 76.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 49.5%. Fiziev · KO/TKO · R2 | Fiziev · KO/TKO R2 | Hit | Hit | Hit | |
MMA Joey goes against the Torres momentum and picks Fiziev by second-round TKO, trusting his technical striking, counters and late-fight edge if he survives the early onslaught. Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 49.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Underdog credit earned: 0.01 — (50% − 49.5%) ÷ 50%. | |||||
Videos
Every source clip behind MMA JOEY's logged calls.