UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria
Ilia Topuria defeats Alexander Volkanovski by KO
Round 2 · 3:32
Volkanovski vs Topuria — Featherweight Title · UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria
Predictions summary
What happened
The result, the defining moments, and what the verdict means.
Volkanovski won the first round on all three judges' scorecards.
Topuria closed the space in round two and trapped Volkanovski on the fence.
An overhand right ended the fight at 3:32 of the second round.
- Official UFC scorecardsOfficial Scorecards: UFC 298 — Volkanovski vs Topuria
- Official UFC resultsUFC 298: Volkanovski vs Topuria — Main Card Results
Pre-fight analysis — how we saw it going in
Case for Volkanovski
Volkanovski entered as the long-reigning featherweight champion, still the division's most layered kickboxer and one of the best round-winners in UFC history. His low kicks, feints and stance switches were the tools to slow Topuria before the challenger could sit down on power.
Case for Topuria
Topuria arrived unbeaten with the compact boxing, body work and grappling threat that had carried him into title contention. The question was whether his pressure and punch mechanics could hold up against a champion who rarely gave opponents the same look twice.
What We Were Watching For
- Volkanovski's calf kicks and feints against Topuria's pocket entries.
- Whether Topuria could pressure without overreaching into counters.
- The champion's round-winning craft against the challenger's one-shot finishing power.
Records & career stats
- 26-3-0
- Record
- 14-0-0
- 3-2 last 5
- Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
- —
- Australia
- Nationality
- Georgia / Spain
- 37
- Age
- 29
- Orthodox
- StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
- Orthodox
- Source pending
- Finish rateFinish %Finish rateThe share of a fighter’s wins that ended inside the distance — by KO/TKO or submission — rather than going to the judges’ scorecards. Higher means more finishes.
- 88%
- 16:50
- Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
- 10:26
- Featherweight
- Weight classWeight
- Lightweight (moving down)
- Freestyle Fighting Gym
- Team
- Team Topuria
Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Record is as of fight night; career stats, recent form and win totals are the latest on file and may include this fight. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.
Videos
Outcome footage, post-fight coverage, and the pre-fight lead-up.
Before the fight (1)
Comments
Who Called It?
How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.
Current pick evidence
Picked: Ilia Topuria
Fight result: Ilia Topuria · KO
UFC GamblingAddicts transcript pick: Ilia Topuria (winner only).
Track record: winner called in 19 of 23 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 82.6% (19 hit, 4 miss, across 23 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 33.3% (1 hit, 2 miss, across 3 method-scored calls on 23 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 100.0% (1 hit, 0 miss, across 1 underdog calls on 23 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 82.6% 19 4
- Method Accuracy 33.3% 1 2
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 100.0% 1
Current pick evidence
Picked: Ilia Topuria
Fight result: Ilia Topuria · KO
Bedtime MMA transcript pick: Ilia Topuria (winner only).
Track record: winner called in 132 of 185 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 71.4% (132 hit, 53 miss, across 185 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 61.9% (60 hit, 37 miss, across 97 method-scored calls on 185 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 40.7% (11 hit, 16 miss, across 27 round-scored calls on 185 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 48.7% (19 hit, 20 miss, across 39 underdog calls on 185 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 71.4% 132 53
- Method Accuracy 61.9% 60 37
- Round Accuracy 40.7% 11 16
- Underdog Accuracy 48.7% 19 20
Current pick evidence
Picked: Ilia Topuria
Fight result: Ilia Topuria · KO
TheWeasle transcript pick: Ilia Topuria (winner only).
Track record: winner called in 115 of 163 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 70.6% (115 hit, 48 miss, across 163 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 61.8% (47 hit, 29 miss, across 76 method-scored calls on 163 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 36.5% (19 hit, 33 miss, across 52 round-scored calls on 163 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 52.9% (9 hit, 8 miss, across 17 underdog calls on 163 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 70.6% 115 48
- Method Accuracy 61.8% 47 29
- Round Accuracy 36.5% 19 33
- Underdog Accuracy 52.9% 9 8
Current pick evidence
Picked: Ilia Topuria
Fight result: Ilia Topuria · KO
Lucas Tracy transcript pick: Ilia Topuria (winner only).
Track record: winner called in 44 of 65 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 67.7% (44 hit, 21 miss, across 65 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 62.5% (10 hit, 6 miss, across 16 method-scored calls on 65 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 50.0% (3 hit, 3 miss, across 6 round-scored calls on 65 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 38.9% (7 hit, 11 miss, across 18 underdog calls on 65 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 67.7% 44 21
- Method Accuracy 62.5% 10 6
- Round Accuracy 50.0% 3 3
- Underdog Accuracy 38.9% 7 11
Current pick evidence
Picked: Ilia Topuria
Fight result: Ilia Topuria · KO
The MMA Guru transcript pick: Ilia Topuria (winner only).
Track record: winner called in 213 of 322 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 66.1% (213 hit, 109 miss, across 322 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 53.4% (62 hit, 54 miss, across 116 method-scored calls on 322 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 35.9% (14 hit, 25 miss, across 39 round-scored calls on 322 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 47.4% (18 hit, 20 miss, across 38 underdog calls on 322 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 66.1% 213 109
- Method Accuracy 53.4% 62 54
- Round Accuracy 35.9% 14 25
- Underdog Accuracy 47.4% 18 20
Current pick evidence
Picked: Ilia Topuria
Fight result: Ilia Topuria · KO
MMA JOEY transcript pick: Ilia Topuria (winner only).
Track record: winner called in 78 of 125 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 62.4% (78 hit, 47 miss, across 125 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 46.6% (27 hit, 31 miss, across 58 method-scored calls on 125 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 28.1% (9 hit, 23 miss, across 32 round-scored calls on 125 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (7 hit, 14 miss, across 21 underdog calls on 125 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 62.4% 78 47
- Method Accuracy 46.6% 27 31
- Round Accuracy 28.1% 9 23
- Underdog Accuracy 33.3% 7 14
Analyst picks: UFC GamblingAddicts Hit; Bedtime MMA Hit; TheWeasle Hit; Lucas Tracy Hit; The MMA Guru Hit; MMA JOEY Hit.
6 of 6 nailed it.
Chart: selected analyst picks, not a win probability. Pill badge: Winner hit rate (total scored picks before this event).
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The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.
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