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TheWeasle on YouTube ↗Scorecard
Called 45 of 61 resolved picks — every call traced to its source, no bare percentage. How Track Record works.
- Winner 45 16
- Method 29 15
- Round 15 20
- Underdog 4 4
Hit Miss
The running record
Every figure below is cumulative — computed over all resolved calls up to and including each card, never one card on its own. A cumulative rate settles as the denominator grows, so its flattening is arithmetic, not a verdict: read where a line sits, and read the vs. the field strip for whether this analyst gained or lost ground on the rest of the roster. Winner is scored on every resolved call; method, round and underdog each have a different and much smaller base, printed beside each one.
Hit Miss Field median Gap to the field
TheWeasle scored 92.5 after 8 cards, against a ranked field spanning 59.7 to 92.5. Against the median of the other 17 ranked analysts they finished 16.4 above, from 18.8 above at UFC Freedom 250.
92.5 now, across 8 cards. The first 3 cards are drawn dashed and hollow: below 20 resolved calls there is no published score yet. The shaded band is where the whole ranked field sits — 59.7 to 92.5 across 18 analysts, this one included.
45 of 61 — 74% now, from 83% at their first scored card.
-
Method
66% 29 of 44 correct winners that named a method
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Round
43% 15 of 35 correct winners that named a round
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Underdog
50% 4 of 8 priced underdog calls
The opening points are drawn dashed and hollow: below 5 scored calls this rate is not yet a reliable figure.
Card by card
Newest card first — the charts above run oldest to newest. One mark per scored call, hits above the line and misses below. Every call is listed in Call History, below.
- Nurmagomedov vs. Song 92.5 11 hit · 2 miss
- Gamrot vs. Salkilld 89.4 9 hit · 2 miss
- Du Plessis vs. Usman 85.1 0 hit · 1 miss
- UFC 329 87.5 9 hit · 4 miss
- UFC Freedom 250 85.9 5 hit · 2 miss
- UFC 328 84.4 3 hit · 2 miss
- UFC 327 92.1 3 hit · 2 miss
- UFC Seattle 100.0 5 hit · 1 miss
Call History
Every logged call, grouped by event, scored on Winner, Method, and Round — nothing about a result ever sits behind a click.
underdog pick favourite pick — shown only for picks with a known pre-fight price. The percentage is the chance the market gave the fighter this analyst picked. Open a row for the price’s source and the credit it earned.
Silva vs. Delgado
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aldrich vs Tarin | Tarin · Dec | Upcoming | |||
| Bahamondes vs Salikhov | Bahamondes · Dec | Upcoming | |||
| Cortes-Acosta vs Blaydes | Cortes-Acosta · KO/TKO · R1 | Upcoming | |||
| Elliott vs Chairez | Elliott · Dec | Upcoming | |||
| Fiorot vs Grasso | Fiorot · Dec | Upcoming | |||
| Garcia vs Rongzhu | Rongzhu · Dec | Upcoming | |||
| King vs Rosas | King · Dec | Upcoming | |||
| Klose vs Gantt | Gantt · Sub · R2 | Upcoming | |||
| Martinez vs Ige | Martinez · Dec | Upcoming | |||
| McMillen vs Rahiki | McMillen · KO/TKO · R2 | Upcoming | |||
| Moreno vs Morales | Morales · Dec | Upcoming | |||
| Silva vs Delgado | Silva · KO/TKO · R1 | Upcoming | |||
Nurmagomedov vs. Song
Event scorecard
- Winner 11 2
- Method 6 5
- Round 4 4
- UnderdogNo underdog calls with a known pre-fight price
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nurmagomedov · Dec | Yadong · KO/TKO R2 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Picks Umar Nurmagomedov to control the bout with wrestling and win a decision. “I am ultimately going to go with Umar to win this by a decision.” | |||||
| Nelson · Sub · R2 | Nelson · Dec | Hit | Miss | Miss | |
Picks Cam Nelson by second-round submission. “Cam Nelson is going to get the win by submission in the second round.” | |||||
| Santiago · KO/TKO · R1 | Santiago · KO/TKO R2 | Hit | Hit | Miss | |
Picks Hector Santiago by first-round knockout. “Hector Santiago is going to get the win by knockout in the first round.” | |||||
| Nuzzi · Dec | Nuzzi · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
Picks Francesco Nuzzi by decision. “Francesco Nuzzi is going to get the win by decision.” | |||||
| Woodson · Dec | Woodson · Dec | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Picks Sean Woodson by decision. “Sean Woodson is going to get the win by decision.” | |||||
| Lima · KO/TKO · R3 | Lima · Sub R3 | Hit | Miss | Hit | |
Picks Andre Lima by third-round knockout. “Andre Lima is going to get the win by knockout in the third round.” | |||||
| Hasan · KO/TKO · R2 | Hasan · KO/TKO R2 | Hit | Hit | Hit | |
Picks Bilal Hasan by second-round knockout. “Bilal Hasan is going to get the win by knockout in the second round.” | |||||
| Sumudaerji · KO/TKO · R3 | Sumudaerji · Dec | Hit | Miss | Miss | |
Picks Sumudaerji by third-round knockout. “Sumudaerji is going to get the win by knockout in the third round.” | |||||
| Asakura · KO/TKO · R2 | Asakura · KO/TKO R2 | Hit | Hit | Hit | |
Picks Kai Asakura by second-round knockout. “Kai Asakura is going to get the win by knockout in the second round.” | |||||
| Xiaonan · Dec | Gomes · KO/TKO R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Picks Yan Xiaonan by decision. “Yan Xiaonan is going to get the win by decision.” | |||||
| Ce · KO/TKO · R1 | Ce · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Hit | Hit | |
Picks Liu Ce for a first-round knockout; the speaker’s name is caption-garbled but the opponent and card context identify this bout. | |||||
| Polastri · Dec | Polastri · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
Picks Julia Polastri by decision; the captioned name is garbled but the event-card pairing resolves the selection. | |||||
| Tsuruya · Sub · R2 | Tsuruya · Sub R1 | Hit | Hit | Miss | |
Picks Rei Tsuruya by second-round submission; the captioned name is garbled but the opponent and card context resolve the bout. | |||||
Gamrot vs. Salkilld
Event scorecard
- Winner 9 2
- Method 6 2
- Round 3 3
- Underdog 1 2
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Underdog call, market price 42.5%. Gamrot · Dec | Salkilld · Sub R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Thinks the cardio difference is the deciding factor over five rounds and takes Gamrot on the cards. Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 42.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Underdog credit earned: 0.00 — credit is earned only on a correct call. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 60.5%. Ferreira · Sub · R2 | Ferreira · Dec | Hit | Miss | Miss | |
Sees Ferreira drop Quarantillo with an overhand and choke him out in the second. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 60.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 87.5%. del Valle · Sub · R2 | del Valle · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Miss | Miss | |
Points to the athleticism and footwork gap plus Elkins's long layoff, and expects a second-round submission. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 87.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 79.5%. Miller · KO/TKO · R3 | Miller · KO/TKO R3 | Hit | Hit | Hit | |
Expects Miller to drop Goff with the right hand and finish him in the third. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 79.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 70.5%. Thainara · Dec | Thainara · Dec | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Has Thainara out-pointing Lemos over three rounds. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 70.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 35.0%. Montanha · Sub · R1 | Montanha · Sub R1 | Hit | Hit | Hit | |
Expects Sutherland to give up his back and get choked out inside the first round. Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 35.0% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Underdog credit earned: 0.30 — (50% − 35.0%) ÷ 50%. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 59.5%. Nurgozhay · KO/TKO · R2 | Nurgozhay · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Hit | Miss | |
Rates Nurgozhay more durable and expects a second-round ground-and-pound stoppage. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 59.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 27.5%. Pat · KO/TKO · R2 | Asplund · Dec | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Expects Pat to pick Asplund apart for a second-round TKO. Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 27.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Underdog credit earned: 0.00 — credit is earned only on a correct call. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 75.5%. Sousa · to win | Sousa · Dec | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Takes Sousa without naming a method. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 75.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Miller · Sub · R2 | Miller · Sub R2 | Hit | Hit | Hit | |
Takes Miller by second-round submission. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 66.5%. Foro · Dec | Foro · Dec | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Takes Foro by decision. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 66.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
Du Plessis vs. Usman
Event scorecard
- Winner 1
- MethodNo correct calls to break down yet
- RoundNo correct calls to break down yet
- UnderdogNo underdog calls with a known pre-fight price
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Favourite call, market price 52.5%. Anderson · Sub · R3 | Elliot · Dec | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Picks Anderson because he rates his ground game higher and sees him as more dangerous in the pocket, calling for a third-round submission. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 52.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
UFC 329
McGregor vs. Holloway 2
Event scorecard
- Winner 9 4
- Method 7 2
- Round 4 4
- Underdog 1
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Favourite call, market price 67.5%. Costa · KO/TKO · R2 | Costa · Sub R2 | Hit | Miss | Hit | |
Sees Costa's power, strength and finishing upside as the difference against Durden's wrestling-first game. He expects Costa to threaten guillotines enough to make the takedowns costly, then track Durden's limited defensive reactions and finish with ground-and-pound in round two. “Ending the fight by TKO in the second round.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 67.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 44.5%. Reese · Sub · R3 | Gandra · KO/TKO R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Acknowledges Gandra's first-round power as the danger, but trusts Reese as the more skilled and technical fighter if he survives the early storm. He expects Reese to use body kicks and grappling as the fight extends, then submit Gandra with a rear-naked choke in round three. “I'm going to go with the more skilled fighter.” Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 44.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Underdog credit earned: 0.00 — credit is earned only on a correct call. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 85.5%. Basharat · Sub · R2 | Basharat · Dec | Hit | Miss | Miss | |
Explicitly notes the opponent change from Ethan Ewing to John Garza and treats Garza as a short-notice UFC debutant with real striking but a clear skill gap. He expects Basharat to out-jab him, blend wrestling with the striking, then use the grappling edge for a second-round rear-naked choke. “Using his grappling to win the fight.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 85.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 70.5%. Pinas · KO/TKO · R2 | Pinas · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Hit | Miss | |
Respects Almeida's kickboxing experience but thinks Pinas is explosive enough, long enough and straight enough with his entries to beat Almeida to the target. He expects some competitive striking exchanges before Pinas' speed and accuracy produce a second-round knockout. “Knocking out Caesar Almeida in the second round.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 70.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 53.5%. Wang · Dec | Wang · Dec | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Calls Wang Cong the more technical, faster and more powerful striker, with more variety than Cortez on the feet. He thinks Cortez needs takedowns to change the fight, but trusts Wang's takedown defense and output enough to win a decision. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 53.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 69.5%. Riley · KO/TKO · R2 | Riley · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Hit | Miss | |
Gives Kamaka a chance to land early boxing, but sees Riley's offensive pressure and power as the deciding traits once exchanges open up. He expects Riley to keep throwing through Kamaka's offense and overpower him for a second-round knockout. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 69.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 77.5%. Yañez · KO/TKO · R1 | Yañez · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Hit | Hit | |
Does not trust Garbrandt's durability against Yanez's boxing. He expects Yanez to find Garbrandt early and finish him in the first round. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 77.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 89.5%. Steveson · KO/TKO · R1 | Steveson · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Hit | Hit | |
Treats the matchup as a showcase for Steveson's elite wrestling and athleticism against an opponent he thinks is badly overmatched. He expects Steveson to maul Ellison quickly and finish in round one. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 89.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 53.5%. Whittaker · KO/TKO · R3 | Whittaker · KO/TKO R3 | Hit | Hit | Hit | |
Likes Whittaker's speed and timing at light heavyweight against Krylov's aggressive blitzes. He expects Krylov to overextend late, get countered, and be finished by ground-and-pound in round three. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 53.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 68.5%. Kavanagh · KO/TKO · R3 | Royval · Sub R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Rates Kavanagh as a future champion-level talent and thinks his speed, kicks and punching entries will make Royval miss too often. He expects Kavanagh to pick Royval apart and eventually knock him out in the third round. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 68.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 57.5%. Sandhagen · Dec | Bautista · Dec | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Sees a high-level rematch where Bautista will land and test whether Sandhagen's chin has slipped, but still trusts Sandhagen's range tools. He expects Sandhagen's long-range work and jab to edge a 29-28 unanimous decision. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 57.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 53.5%. Saint Denis · Dec | Pimblett · Sub R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Frames Saint Denis as the fighter more likely to force the pressure and damage in a wild, size-for-size lightweight clash. He gives Pimblett the cardio edge and a possible late rally, but expects Saint Denis to win the first two rounds and take a decision. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 53.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 71.5%. Holloway · KO/TKO · R3 | Holloway · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Hit | Miss | |
Gives McGregor a real early power-and-style path, especially at 170 pounds, but thinks five years away has made him too slow and rusty. He expects Holloway's speed, movement, body-head volume and activity to wear McGregor down for a third-round fence-side TKO. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 71.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
UFC Freedom 250
Topuria vs. Gaethje
Event scorecard
- Winner 5 2
- Method 3 2
- Round 2 1
- UnderdogNo underdog calls with a known pre-fight price
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Favourite call, market price 79.5%. Topuria · KO/TKO · R1 | Gaethje · KO/TKO R4 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Topuria's cage-cutting and one-punch power are too much. He works into the pocket, rips the body, and lands the overhand on top for a first-round finish. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 79.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 52.5%. Pereira · KO/TKO · R2 | Gane · KO/TKO R2 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Pereira's leg kicks limit Gane's footwork and force a mistake, then Pereira counters with the left hook and finishes with ground-and-pound to become the first three-division champ. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 52.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 77.5%. O'Malley · Dec | O'Malley · KO/TKO R2 | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
O'Malley's striking is on a far higher level and Zahabi has seen nothing he can't handle, but Zahabi's toughness keeps him alive to a decision. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 77.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 79.5%. Hokit · KO/TKO · R1 | Hokit · KO/TKO R2 | Hit | Hit | Miss | |
Hokit's speed and feints freeze Lewis, he blitzes in, scores the takedown and finishes with elbows and hammer fists. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 79.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 81.0%. Ruffy · KO/TKO · R1 | Ruffy · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Hit | Hit | |
Chandler's fight IQ won't let him wrestle on the White House card; he swings haymakers and gets flatlined by Ruffy's check left hook and right straight. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 81.0% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 75.5%. Nickal · Dec | Nickal · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
Nickal out-wrestles and controls Daukaus, defending submissions to advance position and winning on composure and wrestling by decision. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 75.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 59.5%. Lopes · KO/TKO · R2 | Lopes · KO/TKO R2 | Hit | Hit | Hit | |
Lopes is far more durable than Garcia, who is too open for his own good, so Lopes weathers a chaotic first and knocks him out in the second. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 59.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
UFC 328
Event scorecard
- Winner 3 2
- Method 1 2
- Round 2
- Underdog 1
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Favourite call, market price 80.5%. Chimaev · to win | Strickland · Dec | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Goes with the heavy favourite — Strickland's upright stance invites the takedowns Chimaev lives on. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 80.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 60.5%. Taira · Sub · R4 | Van · KO/TKO R5 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
The bigger man and far better grappler; Taira's control finds a fourth-round submission. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 60.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 56.5%. Volkov · Dec | Volkov · Dec | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Volkov's technique, height and reach keep Waldo at range for a close 29-28 decision. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 56.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 37.5%. Brady · Sub · R2 | Brady · Dec | Hit | Miss | Miss | |
Brady takes Buckley down and submits him in the second. Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 37.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Underdog credit earned: 0.25 — (50% − 37.5%) ÷ 50%. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 79.5%. Green · KO/TKO · R2 | Green · Sub R1 | Hit | Miss | Miss | |
Green's cleaner boxing counters Stephens' wild shots and finishes him. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 79.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
UFC 327
Event scorecard
- Winner 3 2
- Method 1 2
- Round 3
- Underdog 1
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Underdog call, market price 49.5%. Prochazka · KO/TKO · R3 | Ulberg · KO/TKO R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Jiri overwhelms Ulberg with output against the cage and finishes with ground-and-pound in the third. Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 49.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Underdog credit earned: 0.00 — credit is earned only on a correct call. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 68.0%. Murzakanov · KO/TKO · R2 | Costa · KO/TKO R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Murzakanov's left hand finds Costa's poor defense for a second-round knockout. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 68.0% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 51.5%. Hokit · KO/TKO · R3 | Hokit · Dec | Hit | Miss | Miss | |
Hokit's athleticism and speed cancel Blaydes's wrestling for a third-round TKO. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 51.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 60.5%. Reyes · KO/TKO · R2 | Reyes · Dec | Hit | Miss | Miss | |
The more technical, fundamentally sound fighter; Reyes lands a second-round knockout. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 60.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 53.0%. Swanson · KO/TKO · R3 | Swanson · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Hit | Miss | |
Swanson's technique and footwork beat Landwehr's recklessness; a third-round knockout. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 53.0% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
UFC Seattle
Event scorecard
- Winner 5 1
- Method 5
- Round 2 3
- Underdog 2
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Underdog call, market price 43.5%. Pyfer · KO/TKO · R3 | Pyfer · KO/TKO R2 | Hit | Hit | Miss | |
Adesanya is washed; Pyfer's power catches him in the third after losing the first two. Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 43.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Underdog credit earned: 0.13 — (50% − 43.5%) ÷ 50%. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 63.5%. Barber · Dec | Grasso · KO/TKO R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Barber's improved footwork edges a very close, possibly split, decision. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 63.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 88.5%. Chiesa · Sub · R1 | Chiesa · Sub R1 | Hit | Hit | Hit | |
Chiesa uses his grappling to take Price down and submit him in the first. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 88.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 74.5%. Douglas · KO/TKO · R1 | Douglas · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Hit | Hit | |
Douglas's powerful, calculated punching finishes a defenseless Erosa in the first. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 74.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 43.5%. Belgaroui · KO/TKO · R2 | Belgaroui · KO/TKO R3 | Hit | Hit | Miss | |
Belgaroui's elite kickboxing is too much standing; a second-round knockout. Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 43.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Underdog credit earned: 0.13 — (50% − 43.5%) ÷ 50%. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 63.5%. McKinney · KO/TKO · R2 | McKinney · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Hit | Miss | |
McKinney's size and power overwhelm Nelson with takedowns for a second-round TKO. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 63.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
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