UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2
Farid Basharat defeats John Garza by unanimous decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Basharat vs Garza — Bantamweight · UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2
Predictions summary
What happened
The result, the defining moments, and what the verdict means.
Basharat controlled with low kicks, takedowns and top position.
Garza defended several later takedowns and took the final round.
Basharat's control through the first two rounds carried the decision.
- Secondary fallback play-by-play reportSherdog · UFC 329 play-by-play
Pre-fight analysis — how we saw it going in
Case for Basharat
Basharat is the side for anyone searching this page to understand whether the unbeaten record is real UFC substance or just a tidy number. The answer so far is substance: he has already gone 15 minutes with Jean Matsumoto, Chris Gutierrez, Victor Hugo and Taylor Lapilus without losing his shape, and his style is built to drain volatility out of fights before opponents can cash in on one big moment. Against a short-notice debutant, that matters more than highlight value. If Basharat owns the range, forces Garza to reset and keeps the scrambles short enough to reach top position on his terms, the fight looks exactly like the composed decision path that has carried him this far.
Case for Garza
Garza gives the matchup its late-replacement upset angle because he arrives with less exposed UFC tape and real regional momentum. The verified reporting around the switch has him at 6-1, on a five-fight winning streak, and coming off a second-round knockout in Fury FC before being pulled into the Basharat fight on short notice. That kind of assignment is difficult, but it also makes the fight less scripted than the original Ewing matchup. If Garza can force early open-space exchanges before Basharat settles the range and wrestling layers, the underdog has the kind of punch-driven uncertainty that short-notice replacements are supposed to bring.
What We Were Watching For
- Basharat's first clean back-take or mat return — those are the moments that usually remove the fight's randomness.
- Garza's first two minutes — the late replacement needs to make Basharat respect his power before the control game settles.
- How Garza handles the first defended takedown — surviving phase one is not enough if Basharat keeps chaining control.
- The late rounds if the fight is still close — Basharat often wins there on discipline, while Garza is entering his first UFC fight on short notice.
Records & career stats
- 4.46 5.47
- 61% 36%
- 3.24 5.73
- 55% 77%
- 44% 67%
- 15-0-0
- Record
- 6-1-0
- 5-0 last 5
- Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
- —
- England
- Nationality
- United States
- 28
- Age
- 23
- 71″180 cm
- Reach
- —
- Orthodox
- StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
- —
- 13:39
- Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
- 15:00
- American Top Team
- Team
- AzTex MMA
Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Record is as of fight night; career stats, recent form and win totals are the latest on file and may include this fight. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.
Videos
Outcome footage, post-fight coverage, and the pre-fight lead-up.
Before the fight (2)
Comments
Who Called It?
How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.
Current pick evidence
Picked: Farid Basharat · Dec
Fight result: Farid Basharat · Decision
Acknowledges Garza's short-notice boxing upside and says Garza may have real moments pressuring Basharat. He still picks Basharat by a close 29-28 because the mobility, stance switching, kick setups, experience and fight IQ should carry enough rounds.
“I'm going to go with Fared Bash to win this one.”
Track record: winner called in 132 of 185 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 71.4% (132 hit, 53 miss, across 185 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 61.9% (60 hit, 37 miss, across 97 method-scored calls on 185 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 40.7% (11 hit, 16 miss, across 27 round-scored calls on 185 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 48.7% (19 hit, 20 miss, across 39 underdog calls on 185 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 71.4% 132 53
- Method Accuracy 61.9% 60 37
- Round Accuracy 40.7% 11 16
- Underdog Accuracy 48.7% 19 20
Current pick evidence
Picked: Farid Basharat · Sub · Round 2
Fight result: Farid Basharat · Decision
Explicitly notes the opponent change from Ethan Ewing to John Garza and treats Garza as a short-notice UFC debutant with real striking but a clear skill gap. He expects Basharat to out-jab him, blend wrestling with the striking, then use the grappling edge for a second-round rear-naked choke.
“down again and submits him with a rear naked choke. So, I'm going to go with Far Basharat, just being more wellrounded and using his grappling to win the fight.”
Track record: winner called in 115 of 163 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 70.6% (115 hit, 48 miss, across 163 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 61.8% (47 hit, 29 miss, across 76 method-scored calls on 163 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 36.5% (19 hit, 33 miss, across 52 round-scored calls on 163 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 52.9% (9 hit, 8 miss, across 17 underdog calls on 163 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 70.6% 115 48
- Method Accuracy 61.8% 47 29
- Round Accuracy 36.5% 19 33
- Underdog Accuracy 52.9% 9 8
Current pick evidence
Picked: Farid Basharat · Dec
Fight result: Farid Basharat · Decision
FightIQ's public record lists Farid Basharat as its pick over John Garza.
Track record: winner called in 159 of 227 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 70.0% (159 hit, 68 miss, across 227 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 39.9% (59 hit, 89 miss, across 148 method-scored calls on 227 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 55.0% (11 hit, 9 miss, across 20 underdog calls on 227 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 70.0% 159 68
- Method Accuracy 39.9% 59 89
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 55.0% 11 9
Current pick evidence
Picked: Farid Basharat · Sub
Fight result: Farid Basharat · Decision
Calls the short-notice UFC debut a tall task for Garza. He likes Garza's pressure and right hand, but sees Basharat as the seasoned, well-rounded UFC fighter with enough grappling layers to take over and finish by submission.
“I'll go Farid by submission finish.”
Track record: winner called in 175 of 264 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 66.3% (175 hit, 89 miss, across 264 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 58.7% (61 hit, 43 miss, across 104 method-scored calls on 264 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 77.8% (7 hit, 2 miss, across 9 round-scored calls on 264 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 36.4% (12 hit, 21 miss, across 33 underdog calls on 264 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 66.3% 175 89
- Method Accuracy 58.7% 61 43
- Round Accuracy 77.8% 7 2
- Underdog Accuracy 36.4% 12 21
Current pick evidence
Picked: Farid Basharat · Dec
Fight result: Farid Basharat · Decision
Explicitly accounts for Garza stepping in on six days' notice. He expects Garza's size and danger to make it competitive, but sees Basharat's deeper UFC experience and MMA grappling as enough to win the final two rounds on the cards.
“Getting this one done by a competitive decision where he wins the final two rounds.”
Track record: winner called in 213 of 322 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 66.1% (213 hit, 109 miss, across 322 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 53.4% (62 hit, 54 miss, across 116 method-scored calls on 322 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 35.9% (14 hit, 25 miss, across 39 round-scored calls on 322 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 47.4% (18 hit, 20 miss, across 38 underdog calls on 322 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 66.1% 213 109
- Method Accuracy 53.4% 62 54
- Round Accuracy 35.9% 14 25
- Underdog Accuracy 47.4% 18 20
Current pick evidence
Picked: Farid Basharat
Fight result: Farid Basharat · Decision
They respect John Garza's clean boxing and short-notice danger, but see Basharat as the safer side because he is unlikely to trade recklessly in the pocket. The grappling and overall MMA layer are framed as too much too soon for Garza.
“Fere's going to win this fight”
Track record: winner called in 93 of 145 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 64.1% (93 hit, 52 miss, across 145 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 40.0% (2 hit, 3 miss, across 5 method-scored calls on 145 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Underdog Accuracy 34.5% (10 hit, 19 miss, across 29 underdog calls on 145 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 64.1% 93 52
- Method Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
- Round AccuracyNamed rounds — none on a correct call yet
- Underdog Accuracy 34.5% 10 19
Current pick evidence
Picked: Farid Basharat · Sub · Round 2
Fight result: Farid Basharat · Decision
Notes that Garza is stepping in on short notice from Fury FC and calls the original Ethyn Ewing matchup tougher. He sees Basharat as the more polished, well-rounded fighter with the takedowns and jiu-jitsu to finally find a finish.
“Farad Basherat. I'll say arm triangle. I'll say second round arm triangle for Farad Basherat.”
Track record: winner called in 78 of 125 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 62.4% (78 hit, 47 miss, across 125 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 46.6% (27 hit, 31 miss, across 58 method-scored calls on 125 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 28.1% (9 hit, 23 miss, across 32 round-scored calls on 125 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (7 hit, 14 miss, across 21 underdog calls on 125 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 62.4% 78 47
- Method Accuracy 46.6% 27 31
- Round Accuracy 28.1% 9 23
- Underdog Accuracy 33.3% 7 14
Current pick evidence
Picked: Farid Basharat · Sub · Round 2
Fight result: Farid Basharat · Decision
Chris Schweppe's MMA Fight Picks UFC 329 preview picks Farid Basharat by second-round submission.
Track record: winner called in 53 of 99 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 53.5% (53 hit, 46 miss, across 99 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 47.2% (25 hit, 28 miss, across 53 method-scored calls on 99 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 33.3% (10 hit, 20 miss, across 30 round-scored calls on 99 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (10 hit, 20 miss, across 30 underdog calls on 99 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 53.5% 53 46
- Method Accuracy 47.2% 25 28
- Round Accuracy 33.3% 10 20
- Underdog Accuracy 33.3% 10 20
Current pick evidence
Picked: John Garza
Fight result: Farid Basharat · Decision
FIGHT//AI’s replay record preserves its original live winner selection: John Garza.
Track record: winner called in 49 of 153 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 32.0% (49 hit, 104 miss, across 153 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 50.0% (1 hit, 1 miss, across 2 method-scored calls on 153 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 20.0% (20 hit, 80 miss, across 100 underdog calls on 153 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 32.0% 49 104
- Method Accuracy 50.0% 1 1
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 20.0% 20 80
Analyst picks: Bedtime MMA Hit; TheWeasle Hit; FightIQ Hit; AJ Devito Hit; The MMA Guru Hit; We Want Picks Hit; MMA JOEY Hit; Chris Schweppe Hit; FIGHT//AI Miss.
8 of 9 nailed it.
Chart: selected analyst picks, not a win probability. Pill badge: Winner hit rate (total scored picks before this event).
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The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.
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