Costa def. Durden
Sub · rear-naked choke · Round 2 · 2:19
Costa vs Durden — Flyweight · UFC 329
What happened
Costa built it patiently. He landed the more telling strikes in the first round, and when the fight hit the mat in the second he advanced from side control to the back and finished with a rear-naked choke at 2:19.
- Costa landed the more consequential strikes in round one.
- The fight reached the mat in the second, where Costa took side control.
- He advanced to the back and finished with a rear-naked choke at 2:19.
Play-by-play source: Sherdog · UFC 329 play-by-play
Watch
More from this fight.
More videos · 8 clips
Signature moments
Signature moments
Who Called It?
How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.
Caller scorecard: AJ perfect call; Mike Finch called it; Lucas Tracy called it; The MMA Guru called it; Bedtime MMA called it; MMA JOEY called it; TheWeasle called it; HopperoMMA called it; MMAPREDICTIONGURU called it; MMA Gambling Podcast called it; Aniki MMA called it; Half The Battle missed.
11 of 12 nailed it · 1 nailed the finish ★.
The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.
Full analyst picks ↓
AJ Betting deskAnalyst called 24 of 30 AJ: predicted Costa · Sub. Actual Costa · Sub R2. Result: Perfect call.
Thinks Costa's low center of gravity, physical grappling, forward pressure and calf kicks make this a difficult Durden matchup. He expects Durden to be in a striking deficit and sees Costa hurting him into a submission.
“I think we're looking at a submission for Costa.”
Track record: winner called in 24 of 30 resolved picks, 15 a perfect call.
Mike Finch Betting deskAnalyst called 19 of 31 Mike Finch: predicted Costa · to win. Actual Costa · Sub R2. Result: Hit.
Backs Costa as the more dangerous flyweight striker and thinks Durden's return to 125 will be difficult. He sees Costa's speed and striking volume leading to a finish, but leaves the exact finish type open between club-and-sub and TKO.
“Give me Costa.”
Track record: winner called in 19 of 31 resolved picks, 8 a perfect call.
Lucas Tracy Analyst called 20 of 31 Lucas Tracy: predicted Costa · Decision. Actual Costa · Sub R2. Result: Hit.
Picks against Durden because he views Costa as the better-rounded flyweight with enough grappling, heavier hands and more strength to win the fight across areas. He explicitly takes Costa by decision.
“I'm picking Alessandro Costa by decision.”
Track record: winner called in 20 of 31 resolved picks, 8 a perfect call.
The MMA Guru Analyst called 25 of 36 The MMA Guru: predicted Costa · KO/TKO · R2. Actual Costa · Sub R2. Result: Hit.
Likes Alessandro Costa's recent body-shot finishing form and thinks Durden is vulnerable to exactly that kind of damage. He expects Costa's short, stocky frame to make the grappling difficult while his pressure creates a body-shot TKO.
“Second round body shot TKO.”
Track record: winner called in 25 of 36 resolved picks, 13 a perfect call.
Bedtime MMA Analyst called 36 of 58 Bedtime MMA: predicted Costa · Decision. Actual Costa · Sub R2. Result: Hit.
Calls the opener closer than the market tone suggests and admits he nearly picked Durden. He still sides with Costa because the calf kicks, power, BJJ threats and harder pocket shots should offset Durden's pressure and wrestling looks.
“I'm going to go with Alessandro Costa to win this one.”
Track record: winner called in 36 of 58 resolved picks, 18 a perfect call.
MMA JOEY Analyst called 13 of 16 MMA JOEY: predicted Costa · KO/TKO · R2. Actual Costa · Sub R2. Result: Hit.
Frames Costa as the much better striker with the strength and takedown defense to punish Durden's wrestling-first game. He expects Costa to rip the body, stuff enough shots, hurt Durden in round two and finish with ground-and-pound.
“I'm picking Costa second round TKO.”
Track record: winner called in 13 of 16 resolved picks, 2 a perfect call.
TheWeasle Analyst called 25 of 37 TheWeasle: predicted Costa · KO/TKO · R2. Actual Costa · Sub R2. Result: Hit.
Sees Costa's power, strength and finishing upside as the difference against Durden's wrestling-first game. He expects Costa to threaten guillotines enough to make the takedowns costly, then track Durden's limited defensive reactions and finish with ground-and-pound in round two.
“Ending the fight by TKO in the second round.”
Track record: winner called in 25 of 37 resolved picks, 9 a perfect call.
HopperoMMA Analyst called 20 of 33 HopperoMMA: predicted Costa · KO/TKO · R1. Actual Costa · Sub R2. Result: Hit.
Sees Alessandro Costa as far too dangerous on the feet for Cody Durden. He expects Costa to keep the fight standing, punish Durden's defensive gaps and land the kind of power shot that ends the fight in round one.
Track record: winner called in 20 of 33 resolved picks, 8 a perfect call.
MMAPREDICTIONGURU AnalystBetting desk called 5 of 7 MMAPREDICTIONGURU: predicted Costa · to win. Actual Costa · Sub R2. Result: Hit.
Picks Costa inside the distance while respecting Durden's wrestling path. He argues Costa is sharper, should be able to defend enough takedowns, and can make Durden desperate before landing the damaging shot or club-and-sub sequence.
“Costa inside the distance is the prediction for me in that fight.”
Track record: winner called in 5 of 7 resolved picks, 3 a perfect call.
MMA Gambling Podcast Betting deskAnalyst track record building — 2 resolved MMA Gambling Podcast: predicted Costa · to win. Actual Costa · Sub R2. Result: Hit.
Both hosts land on Costa. They see Durden's gritty wrestling as the main danger, but think Costa has the sharper striking, enough submission threat to punish bad entries, and the power/speed edge if the fight stays upright.
“Costa is the play here for sure.”
Track record builds as we verify their past calls.
Aniki MMA Analyst track record building — 1 resolved Aniki MMA: predicted Costa · KO/TKO · R2. Actual Costa · Sub R2. Result: Hit.
Picks Costa because he views him as the much bigger threat on the feet despite taking the fight on short notice. He expects Costa to stuff Durden's takedowns, win the striking, and land a second-round knockout shot.
“Give me Alessandro Costa by round two, TKO or KO.”
Track record builds as we verify their past calls.
Half The Battle Analyst called 12 of 19 Half The Battle: predicted Durden · to win. Actual Costa · Sub R2. Result: Miss. Note: Personal connection disclosed in the video; he says Durden is his friend and he would never pick against him.
Picks Cody Durden to outwork Alessandro Costa if he avoids the big power shots. He acknowledges Costa has the harder one-shot threat, but expects Durden's pace, wrestling and top control to carry enough of the fight.
* Personal connection disclosed in the video; he says Durden is his friend and he would never pick against him.
Track record: winner called in 12 of 19 resolved picks, 2 a perfect call.
We Want Picks Betting desk on the fence We Want Picks: made no pick. Didn't call it.
The We Want Picks hosts split the desk call: Angelo picked Alessandro Costa because of the power and knockout threat, while Jacob picked Cody Durden as a survivor-wrestler who can bank control if he avoids the early damage.
Odds
How the market called it — the final pre-fight line against the result, not betting advice.
Market read · 6 sportsbooks
Favoured: Costa (67%) Called it
Costa def. Durden · Sub R2
Archive
Pre-fight material — kept for transparency, folded by default.
Tale of the Tape
Records & career stats — as they entered fight night
- 16-5-0
- Record
- 18-10-1
- 3-2 last 5
- Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
- 1-2 last 3
- Orthodox
- StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
- Southpaw
- 3.86
- Sig. strikes landed / minStrikes / minSignificant strikes landed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter lands for every minute of fight time — a read on striking output and pace. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
- —
- 3.70
- Sig. strikes absorbed / minAbsorbed / minSignificant strikes absorbed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter takes for every minute of fight time. Lower is better — it means they get hit less often. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
- —
- 56%
- Striking defenseStrike def.Striking defenseThe percentage of opponents’ significant strikes that do not land — strikes slipped, blocked or evaded. Higher is better. Not the same as striking accuracy, which counts your own strikes that land. From UFC/FightMetric.
- —
- 86%
- Takedown defenseTD def.Takedown defenseThe percentage of opponents’ takedown attempts that are stuffed. Higher means harder to put on the mat. From UFC/FightMetric.
- —
- —
- Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
- —
- Brazil
- Nationality
- USA
Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Numbers reflect records coming into fight night. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.
Pre-fight analysis — how we saw it going in
Case for Costa
Costa is the finishing threat on this UFC 329 flyweight prelim, and he took the fight the way he takes most of them — on short notice, backing himself to hurt someone. Thirteen of his sixteen wins come by knockout or submission, all four of his UFC victories are stoppages, and he arrives on a two-fight knockout streak over Stewart Nicoll and Matt Schnell. His case against Durden is disruption and power: heavy leg kicks to compromise the wrestler's base, compact power boxing to punish level changes, and a proven body attack that has ended fights late. If Costa keeps the fight in open space and makes Durden pay for entries, his one-shot danger can turn a grinder's matchup into another quick night.
Case for Durden
Durden is the argument for structure. Even after the four-fight skid he snapped by beating Jafel Filho, his clearest wins come from the same reliable pattern: heavy entries, clinch pressure, mat returns and enough top threat to score or finish once the fight stops breathing. Against a short-notice opponent with a limited camp, that pressure is a serious weapon. If Durden can weather Costa's early power, close the distance and drag the Brazilian into reactive wrestling along the fence, the fight becomes far more about control and attrition than highlight finishes — exactly where Durden does his best work.
What We Were Watching For
- Durden's first committed takedown attempt — if Costa can't create separation there, the fight shape tilts toward the wrestler.
- Costa's leg kicks and counters on Durden's entries — the quickest way to punish a pressure-first game and keep the fight standing.
- Costa's conditioning on short notice — his power is real, but a full camp matters most late in a three-round fight.
- Whether Costa's body attack shows up — the liver shot that folded Nicoll is a live path to a late finish here too.
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