UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2
Alessandro Costa defeats Cody Durden by Submission
Round 2 · 2:19
Costa vs Durden — Flyweight · UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2
Predictions summary
What happened
The result, the defining moments, and what the verdict means.
Costa landed the more consequential strikes in round one.
The fight reached the mat in the second, where Costa took side control.
He advanced to the back and finished with a rear-naked choke at 2:19.
- Secondary fallback play-by-play reportSherdog · UFC 329 play-by-play
Pre-fight analysis — how we saw it going in
Case for Costa
Costa is the finishing threat on this UFC 329 flyweight prelim, and he took the fight the way he takes most of them — on short notice, backing himself to hurt someone. Thirteen of his sixteen wins come by knockout or submission, all four of his UFC victories are stoppages, and he arrives on a two-fight knockout streak over Stewart Nicoll and Matt Schnell. His case against Durden is disruption and power: heavy leg kicks to compromise the wrestler's base, compact power boxing to punish level changes, and a proven body attack that has ended fights late. If Costa keeps the fight in open space and makes Durden pay for entries, his one-shot danger can turn a grinder's matchup into another quick night.
Case for Durden
Durden is the argument for structure. Even after the four-fight skid he snapped by beating Jafel Filho, his clearest wins come from the same reliable pattern: heavy entries, clinch pressure, mat returns and enough top threat to score or finish once the fight stops breathing. Against a short-notice opponent with a limited camp, that pressure is a serious weapon. If Durden can weather Costa's early power, close the distance and drag the Brazilian into reactive wrestling along the fence, the fight becomes far more about control and attrition than highlight finishes — exactly where Durden does his best work.
What We Were Watching For
- Durden's first committed takedown attempt — if Costa can't create separation there, the fight shape tilts toward the wrestler.
- Costa's leg kicks and counters on Durden's entries — the quickest way to punish a pressure-first game and keep the fight standing.
- Costa's conditioning on short notice — his power is real, but a full camp matters most late in a three-round fight.
- Whether Costa's body attack shows up — the liver shot that folded Nicoll is a live path to a late finish here too.
Records & career stats
- 3.77 3.27
- 57% 51%
- 3.71 3.89
- 87% 57%
- 82% 67%
- 16-5-0
- Record
- 18-10-1
- —
- Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
- —
- Brazil
- Nationality
- USA
- 30
- Age
- 35
- Orthodox
- StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
- Southpaw
- 09:29
- Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
- 09:56
Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Record is as of fight night; career stats, recent form and win totals are the latest on file and may include this fight. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.
Videos
Outcome footage, post-fight coverage, and the pre-fight lead-up.
Before the fight (2)
Comments
Who Called It?
How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.
Current pick evidence
Picked: Alessandro Costa · Dec
Fight result: Alessandro Costa · Submission
Calls the opener closer than the market tone suggests and admits he nearly picked Durden. He still sides with Costa because the calf kicks, power, BJJ threats and harder pocket shots should offset Durden's pressure and wrestling looks.
“I'm going to go with Alessandro Costa to win this one.”
Track record: winner called in 132 of 185 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 71.4% (132 hit, 53 miss, across 185 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 61.9% (60 hit, 37 miss, across 97 method-scored calls on 185 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 40.7% (11 hit, 16 miss, across 27 round-scored calls on 185 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 48.7% (19 hit, 20 miss, across 39 underdog calls on 185 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 71.4% 132 53
- Method Accuracy 61.9% 60 37
- Round Accuracy 40.7% 11 16
- Underdog Accuracy 48.7% 19 20
Current pick evidence
Picked: Alessandro Costa · KO/TKO · Round 2
Fight result: Alessandro Costa · Submission
Sees Costa's power, strength and finishing upside as the difference against Durden's wrestling-first game. He expects Costa to threaten guillotines enough to make the takedowns costly, then track Durden's limited defensive reactions and finish with ground-and-pound in round two.
“Ending the fight by TKO in the second round.”
Track record: winner called in 115 of 163 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 70.6% (115 hit, 48 miss, across 163 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 61.8% (47 hit, 29 miss, across 76 method-scored calls on 163 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 36.5% (19 hit, 33 miss, across 52 round-scored calls on 163 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 52.9% (9 hit, 8 miss, across 17 underdog calls on 163 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 70.6% 115 48
- Method Accuracy 61.8% 47 29
- Round Accuracy 36.5% 19 33
- Underdog Accuracy 52.9% 9 8
Current pick evidence
Picked: Alessandro Costa · Dec
Fight result: Alessandro Costa · Submission
FightIQ's public record lists Alessandro Costa as its pick over Cody Durden.
Track record: winner called in 159 of 227 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 70.0% (159 hit, 68 miss, across 227 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 39.9% (59 hit, 89 miss, across 148 method-scored calls on 227 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 55.0% (11 hit, 9 miss, across 20 underdog calls on 227 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 70.0% 159 68
- Method Accuracy 39.9% 59 89
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 55.0% 11 9
Current pick evidence
Picked: Alessandro Costa · Dec
Fight result: Alessandro Costa · Submission
Picks against Durden because he views Costa as the better-rounded flyweight with enough grappling, heavier hands and more strength to win the fight across areas. He explicitly takes Costa by decision.
“I'm picking Alessandro Costa by decision.”
Track record: winner called in 44 of 65 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 67.7% (44 hit, 21 miss, across 65 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 62.5% (10 hit, 6 miss, across 16 method-scored calls on 65 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 50.0% (3 hit, 3 miss, across 6 round-scored calls on 65 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 38.9% (7 hit, 11 miss, across 18 underdog calls on 65 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 67.7% 44 21
- Method Accuracy 62.5% 10 6
- Round Accuracy 50.0% 3 3
- Underdog Accuracy 38.9% 7 11
Current pick evidence
Picked: Alessandro Costa · KO/TKO · Round 2
Fight result: Alessandro Costa · Submission
Likes Alessandro Costa's recent body-shot finishing form and thinks Durden is vulnerable to exactly that kind of damage. He expects Costa's short, stocky frame to make the grappling difficult while his pressure creates a body-shot TKO.
“Second round body shot TKO.”
Track record: winner called in 213 of 322 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 66.1% (213 hit, 109 miss, across 322 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 53.4% (62 hit, 54 miss, across 116 method-scored calls on 322 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 35.9% (14 hit, 25 miss, across 39 round-scored calls on 322 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 47.4% (18 hit, 20 miss, across 38 underdog calls on 322 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 66.1% 213 109
- Method Accuracy 53.4% 62 54
- Round Accuracy 35.9% 14 25
- Underdog Accuracy 47.4% 18 20
Current pick evidence
Picked: Alessandro Costa · KO/TKO · Round 2
Fight result: Alessandro Costa · Submission
Frames Costa as the much better striker with the strength and takedown defense to punish Durden's wrestling-first game. He expects Costa to rip the body, stuff enough shots, hurt Durden in round two and finish with ground-and-pound.
“I'm picking Costa second round TKO.”
Track record: winner called in 78 of 125 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 62.4% (78 hit, 47 miss, across 125 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 46.6% (27 hit, 31 miss, across 58 method-scored calls on 125 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 28.1% (9 hit, 23 miss, across 32 round-scored calls on 125 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (7 hit, 14 miss, across 21 underdog calls on 125 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 62.4% 78 47
- Method Accuracy 46.6% 27 31
- Round Accuracy 28.1% 9 23
- Underdog Accuracy 33.3% 7 14
Current pick evidence
Picked: Alessandro Costa · KO/TKO · Round 1
Fight result: Alessandro Costa · Submission
Sees Alessandro Costa as far too dangerous on the feet for Cody Durden. He expects Costa to keep the fight standing, punish Durden's defensive gaps and land the kind of power shot that ends the fight in round one.
“I'm going to go Aleandro Costa to knock out Cody Denon in the first round.”
Track record: winner called in 92 of 148 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 62.2% (92 hit, 56 miss, across 148 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 60.8% (45 hit, 29 miss, across 74 method-scored calls on 148 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 48.8% (20 hit, 21 miss, across 41 round-scored calls on 148 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 26.9% (7 hit, 19 miss, across 26 underdog calls on 148 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 62.2% 92 56
- Method Accuracy 60.8% 45 29
- Round Accuracy 48.8% 20 21
- Underdog Accuracy 26.9% 7 19
Current pick evidence
Picked: Alessandro Costa · KO/TKO
Fight result: Alessandro Costa · Submission
Leftlane MMA picks Alessandro Costa to win by TKO.
“Give me Costa by TKO.”
Track record: winner called in 11 of 18 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 61.1% (11 hit, 7 miss, across 18 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 75.0% (3 hit, 1 miss, across 4 method-scored calls on 18 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 1 miss, across 1 round-scored calls on 18 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 50.0% (1 hit, 1 miss, across 2 underdog calls on 18 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 61.1% 11 7
- Method Accuracy 75.0% 3 1
- Round Accuracy 0.0% 1
- Underdog Accuracy 50.0% 1 1
Current pick evidence
Picked: Alessandro Costa
Fight result: Alessandro Costa · Submission
Picks Costa inside the distance while respecting Durden's wrestling path. He argues Costa is sharper, should be able to defend enough takedowns, and can make Durden desperate before landing the damaging shot or club-and-sub sequence.
“Costa inside the distance is the prediction for me in that fight.”
Track record: winner called in 41 of 69 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 59.4% (41 hit, 28 miss, across 69 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 57.7% (15 hit, 11 miss, across 26 method-scored calls on 69 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 12.5% (1 hit, 7 miss, across 8 round-scored calls on 69 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 30.8% (4 hit, 9 miss, across 13 underdog calls on 69 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 59.4% 41 28
- Method Accuracy 57.7% 15 11
- Round Accuracy 12.5% 1 7
- Underdog Accuracy 30.8% 4 9
Current pick evidence
Picked: Alessandro Costa · KO/TKO
Fight result: Alessandro Costa · Submission
Transcript-verified winner pick from BetSam UFC 329 full-card prediction.
“Alessandro Costa wins by KO.”
Track record: winner called in 22 of 39 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 56.4% (22 hit, 17 miss, across 39 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 46.7% (7 hit, 8 miss, across 15 method-scored calls on 39 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 50.0% (2 hit, 2 miss, across 4 round-scored calls on 39 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 20.0% (1 hit, 4 miss, across 5 underdog calls on 39 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 56.4% 22 17
- Method Accuracy 46.7% 7 8
- Round Accuracy 50.0% 2 2
- Underdog Accuracy 20.0% 1 4
Current pick evidence
Picked: Alessandro Costa · KO/TKO · Round 2
Fight result: Alessandro Costa · Submission
Chris Schweppe's MMA Fight Picks UFC 329 preview picks Alessandro Costa by second-round knockout.
Track record: winner called in 53 of 99 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 53.5% (53 hit, 46 miss, across 99 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 47.2% (25 hit, 28 miss, across 53 method-scored calls on 99 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 33.3% (10 hit, 20 miss, across 30 round-scored calls on 99 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (10 hit, 20 miss, across 30 underdog calls on 99 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 53.5% 53 46
- Method Accuracy 47.2% 25 28
- Round Accuracy 33.3% 10 20
- Underdog Accuracy 33.3% 10 20
Current pick evidence
Picked: Alessandro Costa · KO/TKO · Round 2
Fight result: Alessandro Costa · Submission
Picks Costa because he views him as the much bigger threat on the feet despite taking the fight on short notice. He expects Costa to stuff Durden's takedowns, win the striking, and land a second-round knockout shot.
“So yes, give me Alisandra Costa by round two, TKO or KO, probably with something like a left hook.”
Track record: winner called in 16 of 30 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 53.3% (16 hit, 14 miss, across 30 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 71.4% (10 hit, 4 miss, across 14 method-scored calls on 30 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 66.7% (6 hit, 3 miss, across 9 round-scored calls on 30 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 6 miss, across 6 underdog calls on 30 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 53.3% 16 14
- Method Accuracy 71.4% 10 4
- Round Accuracy 66.7% 6 3
- Underdog Accuracy 0.0% 6
Current pick evidence
Picked: Alessandro Costa
Fight result: Alessandro Costa · Submission
Both hosts land on Costa. They see Durden's gritty wrestling as the main danger, but think Costa has the sharper striking, enough submission threat to punish bad entries, and the power/speed edge if the fight stays upright.
“Yeah, I'm going with Aleandro Costa.”
Track record: winner called in 3 of 7 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 42.9% (3 hit, 4 miss, across 7 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 50.0% (1 hit, 1 miss, across 2 underdog calls on 7 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 42.9% 3 4
- Method AccuracyCalls the winner, not the method
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 50.0% 1 1
Current pick evidence
Picked: Cody Durden · Dec
Fight result: Alessandro Costa · Submission
Picks Cody Durden by decision.
“So, I’m going to go Durden here to pull off the upset to start off the card, and I’m going to take him to win this fight by decision.”
Track record: winner called in 85 of 126 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 67.5% (85 hit, 41 miss, across 126 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 59.5% (25 hit, 17 miss, across 42 method-scored calls on 126 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 55.6% (5 hit, 4 miss, across 9 round-scored calls on 126 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 36.8% (7 hit, 12 miss, across 19 underdog calls on 126 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 67.5% 85 41
- Method Accuracy 59.5% 25 17
- Round Accuracy 55.6% 5 4
- Underdog Accuracy 36.8% 7 12
Current pick evidence
Picked: Cody Durden
Fight result: Alessandro Costa · Submission
Transcript-verified winner pick from 138 MMA UFC 329 full-card prediction.
“yeah, I'm gonna take Duran.”
Track record: winner called in 42 of 66 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 63.6% (42 hit, 24 miss, across 66 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 33.3% (1 hit, 2 miss, across 3 method-scored calls on 66 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 43.8% (7 hit, 9 miss, across 16 underdog calls on 66 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 63.6% 42 24
- Method Accuracy 33.3% 1 2
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 43.8% 7 9
Current pick evidence
Picked: Cody Durden · Dec
Fight result: Alessandro Costa · Submission
Picks Cody Durden by decision.
“I’ll roll with Cody Deran to win by decision.”
Track record: winner called in 17 of 29 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 58.6% (17 hit, 12 miss, across 29 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 58.3% (7 hit, 5 miss, across 12 method-scored calls on 29 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 1 miss, across 1 round-scored calls on 29 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 37.5% (3 hit, 5 miss, across 8 underdog calls on 29 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 58.6% 17 12
- Method Accuracy 58.3% 7 5
- Round Accuracy 0.0% 1
- Underdog Accuracy 37.5% 3 5
Current pick evidence
Picked: Cody Durden
Fight result: Alessandro Costa · Submission
Picks Cody Durden to outwork Alessandro Costa if he avoids the big power shots. He acknowledges Costa has the harder one-shot threat, but expects Durden's pace, wrestling and top control to carry enough of the fight.
“Duran's got a chance to outwork Costa. I'm going to pick Duran to come out here and get his arm raised and start a new win streak.”
* Personal connection disclosed in the video; he says Durden is his friend and he would never pick against him.
Track record: winner called in 58 of 109 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 53.2% (58 hit, 51 miss, across 109 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 71.4% (10 hit, 4 miss, across 14 method-scored calls on 109 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 66.7% (2 hit, 1 miss, across 3 round-scored calls on 109 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 21.4% (6 hit, 22 miss, across 28 underdog calls on 109 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 53.2% 58 51
- Method Accuracy 71.4% 10 4
- Round Accuracy 66.7% 2 1
- Underdog Accuracy 21.4% 6 22
Current pick evidence
Picked: Cody Durden
Fight result: Alessandro Costa · Submission
FIGHT//AI’s replay record preserves its original live winner selection: Cody Durden.
Track record: winner called in 49 of 153 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 32.0% (49 hit, 104 miss, across 153 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 50.0% (1 hit, 1 miss, across 2 method-scored calls on 153 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 20.0% (20 hit, 80 miss, across 100 underdog calls on 153 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 32.0% 49 104
- Method Accuracy 50.0% 1 1
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 20.0% 20 80
Analyst picks: Bedtime MMA Hit; TheWeasle Hit; FightIQ Hit; Lucas Tracy Hit; MMA Lock of the Night Miss; The MMA Guru Hit; 138 MMA Miss; MMA JOEY Hit; HopperMMA Hit; Leftlane MMA Hit; MMA Prediction Guru (MMAPG) Hit; Pure Picks Miss; BetSam Hit; Chris Schweppe Hit; Aniki MMA Hit; Half The Battle Miss; MMA Gambling Podcast Hit; FIGHT//AI Miss.
13 of 18 nailed it.
Chart: selected analyst picks, not a win probability. Pill badge: Winner hit rate (total scored picks before this event).
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The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.
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