Holloway def. McGregor
KO/TKO · knee injury · Round 1 · 1:09
McGregor vs Holloway — Welterweight · UFC 329
What happened
The rematch never got going. McGregor opened with a jumping kick and landed awkwardly on his surgically repaired right leg. The knee gave way again over his next exchanges, and once the instability was unmistakable the referee waved it off at 1:09 — a first-round TKO by injury, and a deflating end to the comeback rather than the knockout the result line suggests.
- McGregor landed awkwardly on an early jumping kick, compromising his surgically repaired right knee.
- Repeated instability on the leg made the injury unmistakable before Holloway could open up.
- The referee halted the bout at 1:09 of round one, awarding Holloway the first-round TKO.
Play-by-play source: Sherdog · UFC 329 play-by-play
Watch
The full fight and highlights.
More videos · 5 clips
Signature moments
Who Called It?
How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.
Caller scorecard: Bedtime MMA perfect call; AJ perfect call; Mike Finch perfect call; The MMA Guru perfect call; Lucas Tracy perfect call; DFS By The Numbers called it; TheWeasle called it; Demetrious Johnson called it; HopperoMMA called it; Alexander Volkanovski called it.
10 of 10 nailed it · 5 nailed the finish ★.
The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.
Full analyst picks ↓
Bedtime MMA Analyst called 51 of 78 Bedtime MMA: predicted Holloway · KO/TKO. Actual Holloway · KO/TKO R1. Result: Perfect call.
Sees moments for McGregor but expects Holloway's volume and cardio to take over in the championship rounds. The five-year layoff is the decisive factor — McGregor burns himself out chasing an early finish that never comes, and Holloway stops him around rounds three or four.
“I do think there'll be moments here for McGregor, but I'm going to say we get like a round three or four TKO from Max Holloway.”
Track record: winner called in 51 of 78 resolved picks, 22 a perfect call.
AJ Betting deskAnalyst called 40 of 50 AJ: predicted Holloway · KO/TKO. Actual Holloway · KO/TKO R1. Result: Perfect call.
Shares the Holloway stoppage read. He expects McGregor to fatigue and become uncomfortable as Holloway's combinations stack up, with Holloway avenging the first fight by knockout.
“I think Max Holloway is going to avenge that loss by KO.”
Track record: winner called in 40 of 50 resolved picks, 19 a perfect call.
Mike Finch Betting deskAnalyst called 19 of 31 Mike Finch: predicted Holloway · KO/TKO. Actual Holloway · KO/TKO R1. Result: Perfect call.
Gives McGregor the power edge, but thinks the five-year layoff, timing gap and Holloway's cardio and mobility are too much. He expects Holloway to turn volume into a later-round stoppage.
“I'm going Max Blessed Holloway.”
Track record: winner called in 19 of 31 resolved picks, 8 a perfect call.
The MMA Guru Analyst called 29 of 44 The MMA Guru: predicted Holloway · KO/TKO. Actual Holloway · KO/TKO R1. Result: Perfect call.
Gives McGregor the opening-round danger, but thinks the long layoff and fading pop make it hard for him to hold Holloway off. He expects Holloway's pressure, jab, body-head follow-ups and pace to take over late and force a stoppage.
“I'm going to go with TKO.”
Track record: winner called in 29 of 44 resolved picks, 14 a perfect call.
Lucas Tracy Analyst called 20 of 31 Lucas Tracy: predicted Holloway · KO/TKO · R1. Actual Holloway · KO/TKO R1. Result: Perfect call.
Not being hyperbolic. The more he studies the tape — Holloway's recent output against Poirier and Gaethje versus McGregor's five-year inactivity — the more convinced he is that Holloway steamrolls McGregor. Picks Holloway to knock him out in the first round.
“I think Max Holloway is going to knock Conor McGregor out in the first round of their fight. And I'm not being hyperbolic.”
Track record: winner called in 20 of 31 resolved picks, 8 a perfect call.
DFS By The Numbers Betting deskAnalyst called 46 of 66 DFS By The Numbers: predicted Holloway · KO/TKO · R2. Actual Holloway · KO/TKO R1. Result: Hit.
Gives McGregor only a brief early puncher's chance after the long layoff. He expects Holloway's pressure and volume to take over quickly, wearing McGregor down and finishing him in round two.
“I'm going Max Holloway. Second round KO.”
Track record: winner called in 46 of 66 resolved picks, 18 a perfect call.
TheWeasle Analyst called 25 of 37 TheWeasle: predicted Holloway · KO/TKO · R3. Actual Holloway · KO/TKO R1. Result: Hit.
Gives McGregor a real early power-and-style path, especially at 170 pounds, but thinks five years away has made him too slow and rusty. He expects Holloway's speed, movement, body-head volume and activity to wear McGregor down for a third-round fence-side TKO.
Track record: winner called in 25 of 37 resolved picks, 9 a perfect call.
Demetrious Johnson AnalystFighter called 9 of 15 Demetrious Johnson: predicted Holloway · to win. Actual Holloway · KO/TKO R1. Result: Hit.
Picks Holloway because activity and volume outweigh McGregor's early precision and power after the long layoff. He wants Holloway to push into boxing range, make McGregor work, and trust that McGregor's power fades if Max survives the early shots.
“I'm going to have to go with the blessed one, Max Holloway.”
Track record: winner called in 9 of 15 resolved picks.
HopperoMMA Analyst called 34 of 53 HopperoMMA: predicted Holloway · KO/TKO · R2. Actual Holloway · KO/TKO R1. Result: Hit.
Picks Max Holloway because McGregor's long layoff, lifestyle questions and repaired leg are too much to trust against an active elite striker. He gives McGregor a puncher's chance, but expects Holloway's pace and current form to overwhelm him in round two.
Track record: winner called in 34 of 53 resolved picks, 11 a perfect call.
Alexander Volkanovski Fighter track record building — 2 resolved Alexander Volkanovski: predicted Holloway · to win. Actual Holloway · KO/TKO R1. Result: Hit.
Picks Max Holloway because he expects the current version of Max to manage Conor McGregor's early danger, avoid the biggest counters and then take over as McGregor slows. He discusses finish possibilities if Holloway melts him late, but does not commit to one method.
- Warns that McGregor can still land dangerous early shots.
- Credits Holloway's newer defensive movement and range management as the reason he can survive those moments.
Track record builds as we verify their past calls.
We Want Picks Betting desk on the fence We Want Picks: made no pick. Didn't call it.
The hosts split rather than giving a desk consensus: Angelo says Conor McGregor has no realistic comeback path and expects Max Holloway to finish him, while Jacob knowingly makes a contrarian McGregor pick after conceding Max is the obvious side and bet.
Odds
How the market called it — the final pre-fight line against the result, not betting advice.
Market read · 6 sportsbooks
Favoured: Holloway (70%) Called it
Holloway def. McGregor · KO/TKO R1
Archive
Pre-fight material — kept for transparency, folded by default.
Tale of the Tape
Records & career stats — as they entered fight night
- 5.32 6.91
- 54% 59%
- 4.66 4.61
- 67% 81%
- 91% 54%
- 22-6-0
- Record
- 27-9-0
- 2-3 last 5
- Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
- 3-2 last 5
- Southpaw
- StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
- Orthodox
- 8:02
- Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
- 16:39
- Welterweight
- Weight classWeight
- Lightweight (moving up)
- Ireland
- Nationality
- USA
- SBG Ireland · Dublin
- Team
- Gracie Technics · Honolulu
Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Numbers reflect records coming into fight night. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.
Pre-fight analysis — how we saw it going in
Case for McGregor
McGregor's case is power and aura. Nineteen of his 22 wins are knockouts, and the left hand that flatlined José Aldo and Eddie Alvarez is the heaviest weapon Holloway has faced. At welterweight there is real mass behind it, and McGregor needs only one clean exchange — ideally early, before cardio and ring rust become the story.
Case for Holloway
Holloway's case is everything that lasts past round one: volume, chin and activity. He lands 6.91 significant strikes a minute, was never finished by strikes until Topuria, and has stayed busy while McGregor sat out nearly five years. The deeper this goes, the more his pace and durability take over — and McGregor hasn't seen a championship round since 2018.
What We Were Watching For
- McGregor's first ten minutes: after a ~5-year layoff and a surgically repaired leg, do his timing and gas tank hold before Holloway's pace takes over?
- Power vs volume: McGregor's single-shot welterweight knockout threat against Holloway's relentless output and granite chin.
- The welterweight debut: Holloway is moving up from lightweight to 170 pounds — does the extra mass blunt his trademark volume and speed?
- The legs: Poirier's calf kicks wrecked McGregor twice — does Holloway attack the surgically repaired left leg?
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