UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2  11 Jul 2026 · Las Vegas, Nevada, US

Max Holloway defeats Conor McGregor by KO/TKO

Watch the fight
KO/TKO · knee injury

Round 1 · 1:09

McGregor vs Holloway — Welterweight · UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2

At a glance

Analysts, AI and market side by side. Open a tab for the detail.

What happened

The result, the defining moments, and what the verdict means.

McGregor landed awkwardly on an early jumping kick, compromising his surgically repaired right knee.

Repeated instability on the leg made the injury unmistakable before Holloway could open up.

The referee halted the bout at 1:09 of round one, awarding Holloway the first-round TKO.

Pre-fight analysis — how we saw it going in

Case for McGregor

McGregor's case is power and aura. Nineteen of his 22 wins are knockouts, and the left hand that flatlined José Aldo and Eddie Alvarez is the heaviest weapon Holloway has faced. At welterweight there is real mass behind it, and McGregor needs only one clean exchange — ideally early, before cardio and ring rust become the story.

Case for Holloway

Holloway's case is everything that lasts past round one: volume, chin and activity. He lands 6.91 significant strikes a minute, was never finished by strikes until Topuria, and has stayed busy while McGregor sat out nearly five years. The deeper this goes, the more his pace and durability take over — and McGregor hasn't seen a championship round since 2018.

What We Were Watching For

  • McGregor's first ten minutes: after a ~5-year layoff and a surgically repaired leg, do his timing and gas tank hold before Holloway's pace takes over?
  • Power vs volume: McGregor's single-shot welterweight knockout threat against Holloway's relentless output and granite chin.
  • The welterweight debut: Holloway is moving up from lightweight to 170 pounds — does the extra mass blunt his trademark volume and speed?
  • The legs: Poirier's calf kicks wrecked McGregor twice — does Holloway attack the surgically repaired left leg?
Records & career stats
McGregor Holloway
  1. OutputSig. strikes landed / min 5.27 6.92
  2. Striking def.Striking defense 54% 59%
  3. DurabilitySig. strikes absorbed / min 4.71 4.60
  4. Takedown def.Takedown defense 67% 81%
  5. FinishingFinish rate 91% 54%
22-6-0
Record
27-9-0
2-3 last 5
Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
3-2 last 5
Ireland
Nationality
USA
37
Age
34
1.75 m
Height — Holloway leads
1.80 m
188 cm
Reach — McGregor leads
175 cm
Southpaw
StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
Orthodox
91%
Finish rateFinish % — McGregor leadsFinish rateThe share of a fighter’s wins that ended inside the distance — by KO/TKO or submission — rather than going to the judges’ scorecards. Higher means more finishes.
54%
19
Wins by KO/TKOKO wins — McGregor leads
13
1
Wins by submissionSub wins — Holloway leads
2
5.27
Sig. strikes landed / minStr / min — Holloway leadsSignificant strikes landed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter lands for every minute of fight time — a read on striking output and pace. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
6.92
4.71
Sig. strikes absorbed / minAbs / minSignificant strikes absorbed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter takes for every minute of fight time. Lower is better — it means they get hit less often. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
4.60
54%
Striking defenseStrike def. — Holloway leadsStriking defenseThe percentage of opponents’ significant strikes that do not land — strikes slipped, blocked or evaded. Higher is better. Not the same as striking accuracy, which counts your own strikes that land. From UFC/FightMetric.
59%
67%
Takedown defenseTD def. — Holloway leadsTakedown defenseThe percentage of opponents’ takedown attempts that are stuffed. Higher means harder to put on the mat. From UFC/FightMetric.
81%
07:35
Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
16:11
Welterweight
Weight classWeight
Lightweight (moving up)
SBG Ireland · Dublin
Team
Gracie Technics · Honolulu

Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Numbers reflect the fighter data snapshot used for this page. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.

Who Called It?

How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.

Analyst picks: KA MMA Hit; Live Dogs MMA Hit; MMA Lock of the Night Hit; Livid Larry MMA Hit; Bedtime MMA Hit; TheWeasle Hit; AJ Devito Hit; MMA JOEY Hit; KennyOkoyeMMA Hit; Lucas Tracy Hit; Michael Chiesa Hit; James Blissett Hit; Kasper MMA Hit; Voice of MMA Hit; JakeGerberMMA Hit; The MMA Guru Hit; DFS By The Numbers Hit; 138 MMA Hit; Kunath Hit; HopperMMA Hit; Fight IQ with Von Hit; Young Pastey / YoungPastey Hit; Michael Iannone Hit; Artem MMA Hit; BetSam Hit; Fight Productions Hit; Leftlane MMA Hit; Half The Battle Hit; KingofCrackdown5095 Hit; PickemMMA Hit; Alexander Volkanovski Hit; Walk The Line MMA Miss; GypMMA Hit; Pure Picks Hit; Aniki MMA Hit; Andrew Richardson Hit; mmadbm Miss; The Finz Chats Hit; Demetrious Johnson Hit; TonyHasDiedMMA Miss; Greedo Plays MMA Miss; The MMA Yuda Miss; TankTopMMA Hit; Hayjive Picks Hit; MMA JAWN Hit; Chris Schweppe Hit; Jesse Holland Hit; Uselyis Miss; CallumCF MMA Hit; Ground"N"Pound (Aaran) Hit; Steve Garcia Hit; MMA AL DENTE Hit; HorseBeef MMA Hit; Lightning MMA Miss; Brandon K Miss; FREESTYLEBENDER Hit; CatchinZEEEZ MMA Miss; Fight Fiend Forecast Miss.

Analyst prediction scorecards
Expand row
KA MMA1 resolved call
Historic market Favourite call, market price 71.5%. Holloway · to winHolloway · KO/TKO R1HitNot calledNot called
Live Dogs MMA13 resolved calls
Historic market Favourite call, market price 71.5%. Holloway · to winHolloway · KO/TKO R1HitNot calledNot called
MMA Lock of the Night88 resolved calls
Historic market Favourite call, market price 71.5%. Holloway · KO/TKOHolloway · KO/TKO R1HitHitNot called
Livid Larry MMA28 resolved calls
Historic market Favourite call, market price 71.5%. Holloway · KO/TKOHolloway · KO/TKO R1HitHitNot called
Bedtime MMA170 resolved calls
Historic market Favourite call, market price 71.5%. Holloway · KO/TKOHolloway · KO/TKO R1HitHitNot called
TheWeasle163 resolved calls
Historic market Favourite call, market price 71.5%. Holloway · KO/TKO · R3Holloway · KO/TKO R1HitHitMiss
AJ Devito237 resolved calls
Historic market Favourite call, market price 71.5%. Holloway · KO/TKOHolloway · KO/TKO R1HitHitNot called
MMA JOEY96 resolved calls
Historic market Favourite call, market price 71.5%. Holloway · KO/TKO · R3Holloway · KO/TKO R1HitHitMiss
KennyOkoyeMMA53 resolved calls
Historic market Favourite call, market price 71.5%. Holloway · KO/TKO · R2Holloway · KO/TKO R1HitHitMiss
Lucas Tracy53 resolved calls
Historic market Favourite call, market price 71.5%. Holloway · KO/TKO · R1Holloway · KO/TKO R1HitHitHit
Michael Chiesa62 resolved calls
Historic market Favourite call, market price 71.5%. Holloway · to winHolloway · KO/TKO R1HitNot calledNot called
James Blissett43 resolved calls
Historic market Favourite call, market price 71.5%. Holloway · KO/TKOHolloway · KO/TKO R1HitHitNot called
Kasper MMA18 resolved calls
Historic market Favourite call, market price 71.5%. Holloway · to winHolloway · KO/TKO R1HitNot calledNot called
Voice of MMA9 resolved calls
Historic market Favourite call, market price 71.5%. Holloway · to winHolloway · KO/TKO R1HitNot calledNot called
JakeGerberMMA116 resolved calls
Historic market Favourite call, market price 71.5%. Holloway · KO/TKO · R3Holloway · KO/TKO R1HitHitMiss
The MMA Guru296 resolved calls
Historic market Favourite call, market price 71.5%. Holloway · KO/TKOHolloway · KO/TKO R1HitHitNot called
DFS By The Numbers142 resolved calls
Historic market Favourite call, market price 71.5%. Holloway · KO/TKO · R2Holloway · KO/TKO R1HitHitMiss
138 MMA39 resolved calls
Historic market Favourite call, market price 71.5%. Holloway · to winHolloway · KO/TKO R1HitNot calledNot called
Kunath39 resolved calls
Historic market Favourite call, market price 71.5%. Holloway · to winHolloway · KO/TKO R1HitNot calledNot called
HopperMMA120 resolved calls
Historic market Favourite call, market price 71.5%. Holloway · KO/TKO · R2Holloway · KO/TKO R1HitHitMiss
Fight IQ with Von16 resolved calls
Historic market Favourite call, market price 71.5%. Holloway · KO/TKOHolloway · KO/TKO R1HitHitNot called
Young Pastey / YoungPastey8 resolved calls
Historic market Favourite call, market price 71.5%. Holloway · KO/TKOHolloway · KO/TKO R1HitHitNot called
Michael Iannone21 resolved calls
Historic market Favourite call, market price 71.5%. Holloway · KO/TKO · R2Holloway · KO/TKO R1HitHitMiss
Artem MMA60 resolved calls
Historic market Favourite call, market price 71.5%. Holloway · KO/TKO · R3Holloway · KO/TKO R1HitHitMiss
BetSam26 resolved calls
Historic market Favourite call, market price 71.5%. Holloway · to winHolloway · KO/TKO R1HitNot calledNot called
Fight Productions31 resolved calls
Historic market Favourite call, market price 71.5%. Holloway · KO/TKOHolloway · KO/TKO R1HitHitNot called
Leftlane MMA18 resolved calls
Historic market Favourite call, market price 71.5%. Holloway · KO/TKOHolloway · KO/TKO R1HitHitNot called
Half The Battle87 resolved calls
Historic market Favourite call, market price 71.5%. Holloway · to winHolloway · KO/TKO R1HitNot calledNot called
KingofCrackdown509528 resolved calls
Historic market Favourite call, market price 71.5%. Holloway · KO/TKO · R3Holloway · KO/TKO R1HitHitMiss
PickemMMA10 resolved calls
Historic market Favourite call, market price 71.5%. Holloway · SubHolloway · KO/TKO R1HitMissNot called
Alexander Volkanovski5 resolved calls
Historic market Favourite call, market price 71.5%. Holloway · to winHolloway · KO/TKO R1HitNot calledNot called
Walk The Line MMA22 resolved calls
Historic market Underdog call, market price 28.5%. McGregor · to winHolloway · KO/TKO R1MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
GypMMA17 resolved calls
Historic market Favourite call, market price 71.5%. Holloway · KO/TKO · R3Holloway · KO/TKO R1HitHitMiss
Pure Picks29 resolved calls
Historic market Favourite call, market price 71.5%. Holloway · DecHolloway · KO/TKO R1HitMissNot called
Aniki MMA19 resolved calls
Historic market Favourite call, market price 71.5%. Holloway · KO/TKO · R3Holloway · KO/TKO R1HitHitMiss
Andrew Richardson52 resolved calls
Historic market Favourite call, market price 71.5%. Holloway · KO/TKOHolloway · KO/TKO R1HitHitNot called
mmadbm23 resolved calls
Historic market Underdog call, market price 28.5%. McGregor · KO/TKO · R1Holloway · KO/TKO R1MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
The Finz Chats22 resolved calls
Historic market Favourite call, market price 71.5%. Holloway · KO/TKOHolloway · KO/TKO R1HitHitNot called
Demetrious Johnson11 resolved calls
Historic market Favourite call, market price 71.5%. Holloway · to winHolloway · KO/TKO R1HitNot calledNot called
TonyHasDiedMMA29 resolved calls
Historic market Underdog call, market price 28.5%. McGregor · KO/TKO · R2Holloway · KO/TKO R1MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
Greedo Plays MMA37 resolved calls
Historic market Underdog call, market price 28.5%. McGregor · KO/TKO · R2Holloway · KO/TKO R1MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
The MMA Yuda34 resolved calls
Historic market Underdog call, market price 28.5%. McGregor · to winHolloway · KO/TKO R1MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
TankTopMMA16 resolved calls
Historic market Favourite call, market price 71.5%. Holloway · KO/TKO · R2Holloway · KO/TKO R1HitHitMiss
Hayjive Picks14 resolved calls
Historic market Favourite call, market price 71.5%. Holloway · to winHolloway · KO/TKO R1HitNot calledNot called
MMA JAWN10 resolved calls
Historic market Favourite call, market price 71.5%. Holloway · KO/TKOHolloway · KO/TKO R1HitHitNot called
Chris Schweppe61 resolved calls
Historic market Favourite call, market price 71.5%. Holloway · KO/TKO · R2Holloway · KO/TKO R1HitHitMiss
Jesse Holland53 resolved calls
Historic market Favourite call, market price 71.5%. Holloway · KO/TKOHolloway · KO/TKO R1HitHitNot called
Uselyis30 resolved calls
Historic market Underdog call, market price 28.5%. McGregor · KO/TKOHolloway · KO/TKO R1MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
CallumCF MMA11 resolved calls
Historic market Favourite call, market price 71.5%. Holloway · to winHolloway · KO/TKO R1HitNot calledNot called
Ground"N"Pound (Aaran)9 resolved calls
Historic market Favourite call, market price 71.5%. Holloway · KO/TKOHolloway · KO/TKO R1HitHitNot called
Steve Garcia9 resolved calls
Historic market Favourite call, market price 71.5%. Holloway · KO/TKOHolloway · KO/TKO R1HitHitNot called
MMA AL DENTE11 resolved calls
Historic market Favourite call, market price 71.5%. Holloway · KO/TKO · R3Holloway · KO/TKO R1HitHitMiss
HorseBeef MMA14 resolved calls
Historic market Favourite call, market price 71.5%. Holloway · KO/TKO · R4Holloway · KO/TKO R1HitHitMiss
Lightning MMA14 resolved calls
Historic market Underdog call, market price 28.5%. McGregor · KO/TKO · R2Holloway · KO/TKO R1MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
Brandon K12 resolved calls
Historic market Underdog call, market price 28.5%. McGregor · to winHolloway · KO/TKO R1MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
FREESTYLEBENDER3 resolved calls
Historic market Favourite call, market price 71.5%. Holloway · KO/TKOHolloway · KO/TKO R1HitHitNot called
CatchinZEEEZ MMA10 resolved calls
Historic market Underdog call, market price 28.5%. McGregor · KO/TKOHolloway · KO/TKO R1MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
Fight Fiend Forecast8 resolved calls
Historic market Underdog call, market price 28.5%. McGregor · KO/TKO · R1Holloway · KO/TKO R1MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed

48 of 58 nailed it.

The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.

No AI predictions are available for this fight yet.

No market odds are available for this fight yet.

Videos

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After the fight
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