New York-based UFC content creator covering predictions, breakdowns and rankings.
Lucas Tracy on YouTube ↗Track Record
Derived from every pick we've logged and verified — shown with its denominator, never a bare percentage. Draws and no-contests fall outside it. How Track Record works.
Called 20 of 31 resolved picks
8 of 20 hits also matched the method.
Call Profile
How this analyst's logged calls performed: winner, stated detail, and frozen pre-event underdog context.
10 calls included both method and round.
Resolved Calls
What was predicted, what actually happened, and whether it hit.
Miss Cortez vs Wang Lucas Tracy: predicted Cortez · Decision for Cortez vs Wang. Actual Wang · Dec. Result: Miss.
Takes Cortez as the upset side because her double-leg threat can interrupt Wang Cong's striking answers. He expects Cortez to mix calf kicks, range touches, and wrestling into a grappling-led decision.
“I'm going to go with Tracy Cortez getting the upset by a grappling decision.”
Hit Costa vs Durden Lucas Tracy: predicted Costa · Decision for Costa vs Durden. Actual Costa · Sub R2. Result: Hit.
Picks against Durden because he views Costa as the better-rounded flyweight with enough grappling, heavier hands and more strength to win the fight across areas. He explicitly takes Costa by decision.
“I'm picking Alessandro Costa by decision.”
Perfect Gandra vs Reese Lucas Tracy: predicted Gandra · KO/TKO for Gandra vs Reese. Actual Gandra · KO/TKO R1. Result: Perfect.
Backs Gandra over Reese because he trusts the Contender Series-style Brazilian finishing upside more than Reese's volatile highlight-reel profile. He expects Gandra to turn that edge into a heavy TKO finish.
“I'm picking him to get this one done by a filthy TKO.”
Perfect Garbrandt vs Yañez Lucas Tracy: predicted Yañez · KO/TKO for Garbrandt vs Yañez. Actual Yañez · KO/TKO R1. Result: Perfect.
Backs Yañez as the fresher, higher-output boxer and expects Garbrandt's limited takedown threat to fade back into striking exchanges. He predicts Yañez settles in and knocks Garbrandt out.
“I'm picking him to win this.”
Perfect McGregor vs Holloway Lucas Tracy: predicted Holloway · KO/TKO · R1 for McGregor vs Holloway. Actual Holloway · KO/TKO R1. Result: Perfect.
Not being hyperbolic. The more he studies the tape — Holloway's recent output against Poirier and Gaethje versus McGregor's five-year inactivity — the more convinced he is that Holloway steamrolls McGregor. Picks Holloway to knock him out in the first round.
“I think Max Holloway is going to knock Conor McGregor out in the first round of their fight. And I'm not being hyperbolic.”
Miss Pimblett vs Saint Denis Lucas Tracy: predicted Saint Denis · KO/TKO for Pimblett vs Saint Denis. Actual Pimblett · Sub R1. Result: Miss.
After weighing Pimblett's range work and submission danger, he lands on Saint Denis' clinch pace, judo, and finishing style. He expects the fight to stay in high-pressure exchanges and end with Saint Denis doing damage from the clinch.
“I'm going to pick him to win this fight. I'm going to go with a finish.”
Miss Pinas vs Almeida Lucas Tracy: predicted Almeida · Decision for Pinas vs Almeida. Actual Pinas · KO/TKO R1. Result: Miss.
Respects Pinas' knockout hype but sides with Almeida's experience, power, body work, and proven takedown defense. He expects Almeida to survive the early danger and win a crafty striking decision.
“I'm going to go with Caesar Almeida to get this one done.”
Hit Riley vs Kamaka Lucas Tracy: predicted Riley · to win for Riley vs Kamaka. Actual Riley · KO/TKO R1. Result: Hit.
Makes Riley the clear side, pointing to his speed and team context while openly treating Kamaka as the much less convincing form read. He says Riley can get it done quickly and however he wants, but does not lock a specific method.
“Luke Riley's getting this one done however he wants.”
Hit Lewis vs Hokit Lucas Tracy: predicted Hokit · KO/TKO · R1 for Lewis vs Hokit. Actual Hokit · KO/TKO R2. Result: Hit. Note: An early read — filmed ~2 weeks out (1 Jun), before fight week.
Tracy argues the 40-something Lewis is old, fragile-chinned and prone to wilting and has only been beating cans, while Hokit is a fast-handed, ferocious, athletic small heavyweight whose avalanche pressure overwhelms opponents. He expects a quick blitz, like the Curtis Blaydes win.
- Gives Lewis a 25-30% puncher's chance
- Hokit's relentless in-your-face style is dangerous to Lewis's chin
- Hokit's grappling is underrated — could finish on the ground
“I think we're going to see Josh Hokit knock out Derrick Lewis in the first round.”
* An early read — filmed ~2 weeks out (1 Jun), before fight week.
Perfect Lopes vs Garcia Lucas Tracy: predicted Lopes · KO/TKO for Lopes vs Garcia. Actual Lopes · KO/TKO R2. Result: Perfect. Note: An early read — filmed ~2 weeks out (1 Jun), before fight week.
Tracy admits he's worried Garcia's long, rangy striking could trouble Lopes, but trusts Lopes's proven iron chin, power and more well-rounded grappling. He sees Lopes as the bigger threat in a firefight and able to take Garcia down and bully him.
- Lopes's chin is battle-tested (Volk x2, Silva, Ige); Garcia's is unproven
- Power and grappling edge — could take Garcia down
- Worried Garcia's slick range striking could make Lopes look lost
“I'm going to lean Diego Lopes by a finish — more ways to win, more well-rounded, iron chin.”
* An early read — filmed ~2 weeks out (1 Jun), before fight week.
Hit Nickal vs Daukaus Lucas Tracy: predicted Nickal · Sub · R2 for Nickal vs Daukaus. Actual Nickal · KO/TKO R1. Result: Hit. Note: An early read — filmed ~2 weeks out (1 Jun), before fight week.
Tracy sees an early-danger test but expects Nickal to return to his wrestling roots, where he finally holds a sizeable grappling edge — unlike his recent better-grappler opponents. He thinks Nickal ragdolls and submits Daukaus, and notes the striking has visibly improved.
- First time in a while Nickal has a clear grappling advantage
- Daukaus's best chance is a no-respect early blitz
- Nickal's striking looked much improved last time out
“I'm going to go with Bo Nickal by a first or second-round submission.”
* An early read — filmed ~2 weeks out (1 Jun), before fight week.
Hit O'Malley vs Zahabi Lucas Tracy: predicted O'Malley · KO/TKO · R1 for O'Malley vs Zahabi. Actual O'Malley · KO/TKO R2. Result: Hit. Note: An early read — filmed ~2 weeks out (1 Jun), before fight week.
Tracy notes Zahabi is a notorious slow starter coming off a razor-thin fight with Vera, while O'Malley is dangerous early and put on one of the best bantamweight striking performances ever against Vera. He expects O'Malley to walk Zahabi onto a punch early.
- Zahabi is a chronic slow starter
- O'Malley's only trouble is an early Zahabi takedown
- O'Malley also does his best work late
* An early read — filmed ~2 weeks out (1 Jun), before fight week.
Miss Pereira vs Gane Lucas Tracy: predicted Pereira · KO/TKO · R3 for Pereira vs Gane. Actual Gane · KO/TKO R2. Result: Miss. Note: An early read — filmed ~2 weeks out (1 Jun), before fight week.
Tracy calls it genuinely close but picks Pereira: Gane lacks finishing power and plays the points game at range, while Pereira can match him there and is faster than people remember. He sees leg kicks accumulating, Gane slowing, and Pereira landing the left hook to finish.
- Gane has no real finishing threat — needs huge volume
- Pereira's leg kicks and underrated speed are the difference
- Could be a late TKO or even a decision if Gane shows up great
“I'm going to go with a third-round KO for Alex Pereira.”
* An early read — filmed ~2 weeks out (1 Jun), before fight week.
Perfect Ruffy vs Chandler Lucas Tracy: predicted Ruffy · KO/TKO · R1 for Ruffy vs Chandler. Actual Ruffy · KO/TKO R1. Result: Perfect. Note: An early read — filmed ~2 weeks out (1 Jun), before fight week.
Tracy says there's no need to overthink it: Chandler is old, inactive and washed off the worst performance of his career, while the younger, longer, faster Ruffy holds reach, height, speed and defence edges. He expects a jab-then-right-hand viral KO.
- Reach (3.5in), height, youth, speed and defence edges for Ruffy
- Even if taken down, Ruffy survives and gets back up to finish
- Ruffy's grappling likely improved with Volkanovski
“Ruffy is going to knock Michael Chandler out — first or second round, a viral KO.”
* An early read — filmed ~2 weeks out (1 Jun), before fight week.
Miss Topuria vs Gaethje Lucas Tracy: predicted Topuria · KO/TKO · R1 for Topuria vs Gaethje. Actual Gaethje · KO/TKO R4. Result: Miss. Note: An early read — filmed ~2 weeks out (1 Jun), before fight week.
Tracy thinks people overrate Gaethje's chances: he calls Topuria the most dangerous fighter in UFC history and by far the best in the division, while insisting Gaethje has no real KO power. He predicts a big right hook on the chin, with a takedown threat Topuria won't even need.
- 'Gaethje has no KO power': went 25 minutes with Pimblett
- Topuria has a grappling threat he won't need
- Says it 'won't even be close'
“Ilia Topuria is gonna flatline Justin Gaethje in the first round.”
* An early read — filmed ~2 weeks out (1 Jun), before fight week.
Hit Brady vs Buckley Lucas Tracy: predicted Brady · Sub for Brady vs Buckley. Actual Brady · Dec. Result: Hit.
Brady's top-10 grappling dominates on the ground and submits Buckley.
Miss Chimaev vs Strickland Lucas Tracy: predicted Chimaev · Decision for Chimaev vs Strickland. Actual Strickland · Dec. Result: Miss.
Chimaev's wrestling controls all five rounds for a 50-45 decision, à la the Du Plessis fight.
Hit Green vs Stephens Lucas Tracy: predicted Green · to win for Green vs Stephens. Actual Green · Sub R1. Result: Hit.
A Bobby Green masterclass — his all-around game far outclasses an older, one-dimensional Stephens.
Miss Van vs Taira Lucas Tracy: predicted Taira · Sub for Van vs Taira. Actual Van · KO/TKO R5. Result: Miss.
Taira's submission grappling is the biggest threat Van has faced; he gets the sub.
Hit Volkov vs Cortes-Acosta Lucas Tracy: predicted Volkov · KO/TKO for Volkov vs Cortes-Acosta. Actual Volkov · Dec. Result: Hit.
You have to be a true top-three heavyweight to beat this Volkov; he gets a TKO.
Miss Blaydes vs Hokit Lucas Tracy: predicted Blaydes · KO/TKO · R1 for Blaydes vs Hokit. Actual Hokit · Dec. Result: Miss.
Hokit can't take Blaydes down and it's too big a step up; a first-round KO.
Miss Costa vs Murzakanov Lucas Tracy: predicted Murzakanov · Decision for Costa vs Murzakanov. Actual Costa · KO/TKO R3. Result: Miss.
Azamat out-damages Costa and beats him to the punch for a decision — Costa lacks the X-factor.
Miss Prochazka vs Ulberg Lucas Tracy: predicted Prochazka · KO/TKO for Prochazka vs Ulberg. Actual Ulberg · KO/TKO R1. Result: Miss.
Accumulated damage and leg kicks mean nothing to Jiri; once in rhythm he gets a gnarly KO.
Hit Reyes vs Walker Lucas Tracy: predicted Reyes · KO/TKO · R1 for Reyes vs Walker. Actual Reyes · Dec. Result: Hit.
Walker is a glass cannon with bad fundamentals; Reyes's power gets there first.
Miss Swanson vs Landwehr Lucas Tracy: predicted Landwehr · to win for Swanson vs Landwehr. Actual Swanson · KO/TKO R1. Result: Miss.
Swanson is older and no longer as dangerous; Landwehr's power and submission game edge it.
Hit Abdul-Malik vs Belgaroui Lucas Tracy: predicted Belgaroui · to win for Abdul-Malik vs Belgaroui. Actual Belgaroui · KO/TKO R3. Result: Hit.
Height and the ability to keep it standing favour Belgaroui.
Perfect Adesanya vs Pyfer Lucas Tracy: predicted Pyfer · KO/TKO for Adesanya vs Pyfer. Actual Pyfer · KO/TKO R2. Result: Perfect.
A chinny Adesanya gets found; Pyfer by KO.
Hit Chiesa vs Price Lucas Tracy: predicted Chiesa · to win for Chiesa vs Price. Actual Chiesa · Sub R1. Result: Hit.
Chiesa out-grapples and bullies Price for a smooth, comfortable win.
Perfect Erosa vs Douglas Lucas Tracy: predicted Douglas · KO/TKO for Erosa vs Douglas. Actual Douglas · KO/TKO R1. Result: Perfect.
An upset call — a hammer-fist KO; he rates Douglas as the featherweight Figueiredo.
Hit Grasso vs Barber Lucas Tracy: predicted Grasso · to win for Grasso vs Barber. Actual Grasso · KO/TKO R1. Result: Hit.
Grasso's championship-level boxing is clearly superior and Barber can't hold her down.
Perfect McKinney vs Nelson Lucas Tracy: predicted McKinney · KO/TKO · R1 for McKinney vs Nelson. Actual McKinney · KO/TKO R1. Result: Perfect.
Nelson has no power to check McKinney's early onslaught; a first-round KO.