New York-based UFC content creator covering predictions, breakdowns and rankings.
Lucas Tracy on YouTube ↗Scorecard
Called 21 of 32 resolved picks — every call traced to its source, no bare percentage. How Track Record works.
- Winner 21 11
- Method 10 6
- Round 3 4
- Underdog 4 5
Hit Miss
The running record
Every figure below is cumulative — computed over all resolved calls up to and including each card, never one card on its own. A cumulative rate settles as the denominator grows, so its flattening is arithmetic, not a verdict: read where a line sits, and read the vs. the field strip for whether this analyst gained or lost ground on the rest of the roster. Winner is scored on every resolved call; method, round and underdog each have a different and much smaller base, printed beside each one.
Hit Miss Field median Gap to the field
Lucas Tracy scored 77.0 after 6 cards, against a ranked field spanning 59.7 to 92.5. Also plotted: TheWeasle (#1), Bedtime MMA (#6), The MMA Guru (#8). Against the median of the other 17 ranked analysts they finished 1.5 above, from 9.7 above at UFC Freedom 250.
77.0 now, across 6 cards. The first 3 cards are drawn dashed and hollow: below 20 resolved calls there is no published score yet. The shaded band is where the whole ranked field sits — 59.7 to 92.5 across 18 analysts, this one included.
21 of 32 — 66% now, from 100% at their first scored card.
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Method
63% 10 of 16 correct winners that named a method
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Round
43% 3 of 7 correct winners that named a round
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Underdog
44% 4 of 9 priced underdog calls
The opening points are drawn dashed and hollow: below 5 scored calls this rate is not yet a reliable figure.
Card by card
Newest card first — the charts above run oldest to newest. One mark per scored call, hits above the line and misses below. Every call is listed in Call History, below.
- UFC 330 77.0 1 hit · 0 miss
- UFC 329 76.3 5 hit · 3 miss
- UFC Freedom 250 76.7 5 hit · 2 miss
- UFC 328 71.2 3 hit · 2 miss
- UFC 327 75.1 1 hit · 4 miss
- UFC Seattle 100.0 6 hit · 0 miss
Call History
Every logged call, grouped by event, scored on Winner, Method, and Round — nothing about a result ever sits behind a click.
underdog pick favourite pick — shown only for picks with a known pre-fight price. The percentage is the chance the market gave the fighter this analyst picked. Open a row for the price’s source and the credit it earned.
UFC 330
Makhachev vs. Machado Garry
Event scorecard
- Winner 1
- Method 1
- RoundCalls the winner, not the round
- UnderdogNo underdog calls with a known pre-fight price
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Favourite call, market price 73.5%. Makhachev · Sub | Makhachev · Dec R5 | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
Backs Makhachev to beat Garry and predicts a second- or third-round submission, so no single round is recorded. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 73.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
UFC 329
McGregor vs. Holloway 2
Event scorecard
- Winner 5 3
- Method 3 1
- Round 1
- Underdog 2
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Favourite call, market price 71.5%. Holloway · KO/TKO · R1 | Holloway · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Hit | Hit | |
Not being hyperbolic. The more he studies the tape — Holloway's recent output against Poirier and Gaethje versus McGregor's five-year inactivity — the more convinced he is that Holloway steamrolls McGregor. Picks Holloway to knock him out in the first round. “I think Max Holloway is going to knock Conor McGregor out in the first round of their fight. And I'm not being hyperbolic.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 71.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 46.5%. Cortez · Dec | Wang · Dec | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Takes Cortez as the upset side because her double-leg threat can interrupt Wang Cong's striking answers. He expects Cortez to mix calf kicks, range touches, and wrestling into a grappling-led decision. “I'm going to go with Tracy Cortez getting the upset by a grappling decision.” Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 46.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Underdog credit earned: 0.00 — credit is earned only on a correct call. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 69.5%. Riley · to win | Riley · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Makes Riley the clear side, pointing to his speed and team context while openly treating Kamaka as the much less convincing form read. He says Riley can get it done quickly and however he wants, but does not lock a specific method. “Luke Riley's getting this one done however he wants.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 69.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 77.5%. Yañez · KO/TKO | Yañez · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Backs Yañez as the fresher, higher-output boxer and expects Garbrandt's limited takedown threat to fade back into striking exchanges. He predicts Yañez settles in and knocks Garbrandt out. “I'm picking him to win this.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 77.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 55.5%. Gandra · KO/TKO | Gandra · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Backs Gandra over Reese because he trusts the Contender Series-style Brazilian finishing upside more than Reese's volatile highlight-reel profile. He expects Gandra to turn that edge into a heavy TKO finish. “I'm picking him to get this one done by a filthy TKO.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 55.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 67.5%. Costa · Dec | Costa · Sub R2 | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
Picks against Durden because he views Costa as the better-rounded flyweight with enough grappling, heavier hands and more strength to win the fight across areas. He explicitly takes Costa by decision. “I'm picking Alessandro Costa by decision.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 67.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 29.5%. Almeida · Dec | Pinas · KO/TKO R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Respects Pinas' knockout hype but sides with Almeida's experience, power, body work, and proven takedown defense. He expects Almeida to survive the early danger and win a crafty striking decision. “I'm going to go with Caesar Almeida to get this one done.” Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 29.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Underdog credit earned: 0.00 — credit is earned only on a correct call. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 53.5%. Saint Denis · KO/TKO | Pimblett · Sub R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
After weighing Pimblett's range work and submission danger, he lands on Saint Denis' clinch pace, judo, and finishing style. He expects the fight to stay in high-pressure exchanges and end with Saint Denis doing damage from the clinch. “I'm going to pick him to win this fight. I'm going to go with a finish.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 53.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
UFC Freedom 250
Topuria vs. Gaethje
Event scorecard
- Winner 5 2
- Method 4 1
- Round 1 3
- UnderdogNo underdog calls with a known pre-fight price
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Favourite call, market price 79.5%. Topuria · KO/TKO · R1 | Gaethje · KO/TKO R4 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Tracy thinks people overrate Gaethje's chances: he calls Topuria the most dangerous fighter in UFC history and by far the best in the division, while insisting Gaethje has no real KO power. He predicts a big right hook on the chin, with a takedown threat Topuria won't even need.
“Ilia Topuria is gonna flatline Justin Gaethje in the first round.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 79.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. * An early read — filmed ~2 weeks out (1 Jun), before fight week. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 52.5%. Pereira · KO/TKO · R3 | Gane · KO/TKO R2 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Tracy calls it genuinely close but picks Pereira: Gane lacks finishing power and plays the points game at range, while Pereira can match him there and is faster than people remember. He sees leg kicks accumulating, Gane slowing, and Pereira landing the left hook to finish.
“I'm going to go with a third-round KO for Alex Pereira.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 52.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. * An early read — filmed ~2 weeks out (1 Jun), before fight week. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 77.5%. O'Malley · KO/TKO · R1 | O'Malley · KO/TKO R2 | Hit | Hit | Miss | |
Tracy notes Zahabi is a notorious slow starter coming off a razor-thin fight with Vera, while O'Malley is dangerous early and put on one of the best bantamweight striking performances ever against Vera. He expects O'Malley to walk Zahabi onto a punch early.
Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 77.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. * An early read — filmed ~2 weeks out (1 Jun), before fight week. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 79.5%. Hokit · KO/TKO · R1 | Hokit · KO/TKO R2 | Hit | Hit | Miss | |
Tracy argues the 40-something Lewis is old, fragile-chinned and prone to wilting and has only been beating cans, while Hokit is a fast-handed, ferocious, athletic small heavyweight whose avalanche pressure overwhelms opponents. He expects a quick blitz, like the Curtis Blaydes win.
“I think we're going to see Josh Hokit knock out Derrick Lewis in the first round.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 79.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. * An early read — filmed ~2 weeks out (1 Jun), before fight week. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 81.0%. Ruffy · KO/TKO · R1 | Ruffy · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Hit | Hit | |
Tracy says there's no need to overthink it: Chandler is old, inactive and washed off the worst performance of his career, while the younger, longer, faster Ruffy holds reach, height, speed and defence edges. He expects a jab-then-right-hand viral KO.
“Ruffy is going to knock Michael Chandler out — first or second round, a viral KO.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 81.0% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. * An early read — filmed ~2 weeks out (1 Jun), before fight week. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 75.5%. Nickal · Sub · R2 | Nickal · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Miss | Miss | |
Tracy sees an early-danger test but expects Nickal to return to his wrestling roots, where he finally holds a sizeable grappling edge — unlike his recent better-grappler opponents. He thinks Nickal ragdolls and submits Daukaus, and notes the striking has visibly improved.
“I'm going to go with Bo Nickal by a first or second-round submission.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 75.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. * An early read — filmed ~2 weeks out (1 Jun), before fight week. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 59.5%. Lopes · KO/TKO | Lopes · KO/TKO R2 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Tracy admits he's worried Garcia's long, rangy striking could trouble Lopes, but trusts Lopes's proven iron chin, power and more well-rounded grappling. He sees Lopes as the bigger threat in a firefight and able to take Garcia down and bully him.
“I'm going to lean Diego Lopes by a finish — more ways to win, more well-rounded, iron chin.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 59.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. * An early read — filmed ~2 weeks out (1 Jun), before fight week. | |||||
UFC 328
Event scorecard
- Winner 3 2
- Method 2
- RoundCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog 1
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Favourite call, market price 80.5%. Chimaev · Dec | Strickland · Dec | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Chimaev's wrestling controls all five rounds for a 50-45 decision, à la the Du Plessis fight. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 80.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 60.5%. Taira · Sub | Van · KO/TKO R5 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Taira's submission grappling is the biggest threat Van has faced; he gets the sub. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 60.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 56.5%. Volkov · KO/TKO | Volkov · Dec | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
You have to be a true top-three heavyweight to beat this Volkov; he gets a TKO. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 56.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 37.5%. Brady · Sub | Brady · Dec | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
Brady's top-10 grappling dominates on the ground and submits Buckley. Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 37.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Underdog credit earned: 0.25 — (50% − 37.5%) ÷ 50%. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 79.5%. Green · to win | Green · Sub R1 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
A Bobby Green masterclass — his all-around game far outclasses an older, one-dimensional Stephens. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 79.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
UFC 327
Event scorecard
- Winner 1 4
- Method 1
- Round 1
- Underdog 3
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Underdog call, market price 49.5%. Prochazka · KO/TKO | Ulberg · KO/TKO R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Accumulated damage and leg kicks mean nothing to Jiri; once in rhythm he gets a gnarly KO. Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 49.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Underdog credit earned: 0.00 — credit is earned only on a correct call. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 68.0%. Murzakanov · Dec | Costa · KO/TKO R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Azamat out-damages Costa and beats him to the punch for a decision — Costa lacks the X-factor. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 68.0% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 48.5%. Blaydes · KO/TKO · R1 | Hokit · Dec | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Hokit can't take Blaydes down and it's too big a step up; a first-round KO. Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 48.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Underdog credit earned: 0.00 — credit is earned only on a correct call. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 60.5%. Reyes · KO/TKO · R1 | Reyes · Dec | Hit | Miss | Miss | |
Walker is a glass cannon with bad fundamentals; Reyes's power gets there first. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 60.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 47.0%. Landwehr · to win | Swanson · KO/TKO R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Swanson is older and no longer as dangerous; Landwehr's power and submission game edge it. Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 47.0% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Underdog credit earned: 0.00 — credit is earned only on a correct call. | |||||
UFC Seattle
Event scorecard
- Winner 6
- Method 3
- Round 1
- Underdog 3
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Underdog call, market price 43.5%. Pyfer · KO/TKO | Pyfer · KO/TKO R2 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
A chinny Adesanya gets found; Pyfer by KO. Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 43.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Underdog credit earned: 0.13 — (50% − 43.5%) ÷ 50%. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 36.5%. Grasso · to win | Grasso · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Grasso's championship-level boxing is clearly superior and Barber can't hold her down. Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 36.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Underdog credit earned: 0.27 — (50% − 36.5%) ÷ 50%. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 88.5%. Chiesa · to win | Chiesa · Sub R1 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Chiesa out-grapples and bullies Price for a smooth, comfortable win. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 88.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 74.5%. Douglas · KO/TKO | Douglas · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
An upset call — a hammer-fist KO; he rates Douglas as the featherweight Figueiredo. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 74.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 43.5%. Belgaroui · to win | Belgaroui · KO/TKO R3 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Height and the ability to keep it standing favour Belgaroui. Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 43.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Underdog credit earned: 0.13 — (50% − 43.5%) ÷ 50%. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 63.5%. McKinney · KO/TKO · R1 | McKinney · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Hit | Hit | |
Nelson has no power to check McKinney's early onslaught; a first-round KO. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 63.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
Videos
Every source clip behind Lucas Tracy's logged calls.