Carlos Ulberg defeats Jiří Procházka by KO/TKO
Procházka vs Ulberg — Light Heavyweight Title · UFC 327: Prochazka vs. Ulberg
Predictions summary
What happened
The result, the defining moments, and what the verdict means.
Ulberg and Prochazka contested the vacant light heavyweight title in the UFC 327 main event.
Ulberg stopped Prochazka by knockout during the opening round.
The official result recorded the finish at 3:45 of round one and awarded Ulberg the vacant title.
- Official UFC scorecardsUFC 327: Prochazka vs Ulberg — Official Scorecards
Pre-fight analysis — how we saw it going in
Case for Procházka
Prochazka entered as the proven chaos engine of the matchup: a former UFC champion who could drag light-heavyweight title fights into ugly, exhausting exchanges and still find a finish. His clearest route was to deny Ulberg a clean kickboxing match, force layered pocket entries, and make the challenger defend extended pressure instead of trading at his preferred rhythm.
Case for Ulberg
Ulberg came in with the sharper recent trajectory and the cleaner striking process. After wins over Jan Blachowicz, Dominick Reyes and Alonzo Menifield, his path was to keep Prochazka at the end of straight shots, make the former champion reset after every burst, and punish the defensive gaps that appear whenever Prochazka chases chaos too early.
What We Were Watching For
- Could Ulberg keep the title fight in structured kickboxing range instead of Prochazka's preferred chaos?
- Would Prochazka's pressure and durability force Ulberg into the kind of extended brawl that changes his output?
- Which light heavyweight would land the first clean momentum-changing shot in open space?
Records & career stats
- 5.61 6.57
- 45% 51%
- 5.67 4.03
- 68% 86%
- 97% 71%
- 32-5-1
- Record
- 13-1-0
- 3-2 last 5
- Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
- 5-0 last 5
- Czech Republic
- Nationality
- New Zealand
- 33
- Age
- 35
- Orthodox
- StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
- Orthodox
- 10:15
- Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
- 07:09
- Jetsaam Gym Brno · Brno
- Team
- City Kickboxing
Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Record is as of fight night; career stats, recent form and win totals are the latest on file and may include this fight. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.
Comments
Who Called It?
How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.
Current pick evidence
Picked: Jiří Procházka · KO/TKO
Fight result: Carlos Ulberg · KO/TKO
Jiri weathers the early storm, walks Ulberg down and finishes late with a TKO.
Track record: winner called in 132 of 185 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 71.4% (132 hit, 53 miss, across 185 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 61.9% (60 hit, 37 miss, across 97 method-scored calls on 185 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 40.7% (11 hit, 16 miss, across 27 round-scored calls on 185 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 48.7% (19 hit, 20 miss, across 39 underdog calls on 185 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 71.4% 132 53
- Method Accuracy 61.9% 60 37
- Round Accuracy 40.7% 11 16
- Underdog Accuracy 48.7% 19 20
Current pick evidence
Picked: Jiří Procházka · KO/TKO · Round 3
Fight result: Carlos Ulberg · KO/TKO
Jiri overwhelms Ulberg with output against the cage and finishes with ground-and-pound in the third.
Track record: winner called in 115 of 163 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 70.6% (115 hit, 48 miss, across 163 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 61.8% (47 hit, 29 miss, across 76 method-scored calls on 163 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 36.5% (19 hit, 33 miss, across 52 round-scored calls on 163 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 52.9% (9 hit, 8 miss, across 17 underdog calls on 163 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 70.6% 115 48
- Method Accuracy 61.8% 47 29
- Round Accuracy 36.5% 19 33
- Underdog Accuracy 52.9% 9 8
Current pick evidence
Picked: Jiří Procházka · KO/TKO
Fight result: Carlos Ulberg · KO/TKO
Accumulated damage and leg kicks mean nothing to Jiri; once in rhythm he gets a gnarly KO.
Track record: winner called in 44 of 65 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 67.7% (44 hit, 21 miss, across 65 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 62.5% (10 hit, 6 miss, across 16 method-scored calls on 65 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 50.0% (3 hit, 3 miss, across 6 round-scored calls on 65 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 38.9% (7 hit, 11 miss, across 18 underdog calls on 65 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 67.7% 44 21
- Method Accuracy 62.5% 10 6
- Round Accuracy 50.0% 3 3
- Underdog Accuracy 38.9% 7 11
Current pick evidence
Picked: Jiří Procházka
Fight result: Carlos Ulberg · KO/TKO
Agonises over it but switches back to Jiri — his pressure and improvement win out in a stylistically tough fight.
Track record: winner called in 213 of 322 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 66.1% (213 hit, 109 miss, across 322 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 53.4% (62 hit, 54 miss, across 116 method-scored calls on 322 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 35.9% (14 hit, 25 miss, across 39 round-scored calls on 322 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 47.4% (18 hit, 20 miss, across 38 underdog calls on 322 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 66.1% 213 109
- Method Accuracy 53.4% 62 54
- Round Accuracy 35.9% 14 25
- Underdog Accuracy 47.4% 18 20
Current pick evidence
Picked: Jiří Procházka · KO/TKO · Round 2
Fight result: Carlos Ulberg · KO/TKO
CBS Sports' UFC 327 expert-picks table lists Brookhouse on Prochazka by second-round KO.
Track record: winner called in 28 of 43 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 65.1% (28 hit, 15 miss, across 43 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 36.4% (8 hit, 14 miss, across 22 method-scored calls on 43 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 22.2% (2 hit, 7 miss, across 9 round-scored calls on 43 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 37.5% (3 hit, 5 miss, across 8 underdog calls on 43 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 65.1% 28 15
- Method Accuracy 36.4% 8 14
- Round Accuracy 22.2% 2 7
- Underdog Accuracy 37.5% 3 5
Current pick evidence
Picked: Jiří Procházka · KO/TKO · Round 2
Fight result: Carlos Ulberg · KO/TKO
He expects Ulberg to look competitive early, but sees Prochazka's pressure and durability flipping the fight once Jiri starts marching him down in round two.
“I'll take Jiri Prochazka to win this fight by second round knockout.”
Track record: winner called in 112 of 173 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 64.7% (112 hit, 61 miss, across 173 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 61.0% (61 hit, 39 miss, across 100 method-scored calls on 173 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 38.3% (18 hit, 29 miss, across 47 round-scored calls on 173 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 36.4% (8 hit, 14 miss, across 22 underdog calls on 173 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 64.7% 112 61
- Method Accuracy 61.0% 61 39
- Round Accuracy 38.3% 18 29
- Underdog Accuracy 36.4% 8 14
Current pick evidence
Picked: Jiří Procházka
Fight result: Carlos Ulberg · KO/TKO
Acknowledges Ulberg is more technical but trusts Jiri's experience and elite finishing.
Track record: winner called in 93 of 145 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 64.1% (93 hit, 52 miss, across 145 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 40.0% (2 hit, 3 miss, across 5 method-scored calls on 145 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Underdog Accuracy 34.5% (10 hit, 19 miss, across 29 underdog calls on 145 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 64.1% 93 52
- Method Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
- Round AccuracyNamed rounds — none on a correct call yet
- Underdog Accuracy 34.5% 10 19
Current pick evidence
Picked: Jiří Procházka · KO/TKO
Fight result: Carlos Ulberg · KO/TKO
Michael Iannone's FantasyAlarm UFC 327 preview picks Jiří Procházka by KO/TKO.
Track record: winner called in 15 of 24 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 62.5% (15 hit, 9 miss, across 24 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 55.6% (5 hit, 4 miss, across 9 method-scored calls on 24 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 2 miss, across 2 round-scored calls on 24 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 50.0% (3 hit, 3 miss, across 6 underdog calls on 24 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 62.5% 15 9
- Method Accuracy 55.6% 5 4
- Round Accuracy 0.0% 2
- Underdog Accuracy 50.0% 3 3
Current pick evidence
Picked: Jiří Procházka · KO/TKO · Round 3
Fight result: Carlos Ulberg · KO/TKO
Ulberg looks good early but Jiri lands the big shot for a third-round TKO.
Track record: winner called in 92 of 148 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 62.2% (92 hit, 56 miss, across 148 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 60.8% (45 hit, 29 miss, across 74 method-scored calls on 148 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 48.8% (20 hit, 21 miss, across 41 round-scored calls on 148 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 26.9% (7 hit, 19 miss, across 26 underdog calls on 148 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 62.2% 92 56
- Method Accuracy 60.8% 45 29
- Round Accuracy 48.8% 20 21
- Underdog Accuracy 26.9% 7 19
Current pick evidence
Picked: Jiří Procházka
Fight result: Carlos Ulberg · KO/TKO
RotoWire's UFC 327 expert-picks table lists Jake Letarski on Jiří Procházka.
Track record: winner called in 42 of 69 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 60.9% (42 hit, 27 miss, across 69 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 30.8% (4 hit, 9 miss, across 13 underdog calls on 69 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 60.9% 42 27
- Method AccuracyCalls the winner, not the method
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 30.8% 4 9
Current pick evidence
Picked: Jiří Procházka
Fight result: Carlos Ulberg · KO/TKO
RotoWire's UFC 327 expert-picks table lists Jon Litterine on Jiří Procházka.
Track record: winner called in 70 of 124 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 56.5% (70 hit, 54 miss, across 124 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 28.0% (7 hit, 18 miss, across 25 underdog calls on 124 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 56.5% 70 54
- Method AccuracyNamed methods — none on a correct call yet
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 28.0% 7 18
Current pick evidence
Picked: Jiří Procházka · KO/TKO · Round 3
Fight result: Carlos Ulberg · KO/TKO
CBS Sports' UFC 327 expert-picks table lists Campbell on Prochazka by third-round TKO.
Track record: winner called in 24 of 43 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 55.8% (24 hit, 19 miss, across 43 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 65.0% (13 hit, 7 miss, across 20 method-scored calls on 43 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 7.1% (1 hit, 13 miss, across 14 round-scored calls on 43 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 25.0% (3 hit, 9 miss, across 12 underdog calls on 43 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 55.8% 24 19
- Method Accuracy 65.0% 13 7
- Round Accuracy 7.1% 1 13
- Underdog Accuracy 25.0% 3 9
Current pick evidence
Picked: Jiří Procházka · KO/TKO · Round 3
Fight result: Carlos Ulberg · KO/TKO
CBS Sports' UFC 327 expert-picks table lists Mahjouri on Prochazka by third-round KO.
Track record: winner called in 25 of 46 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 54.3% (25 hit, 21 miss, across 46 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 50.0% (10 hit, 10 miss, across 20 method-scored calls on 46 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 9 miss, across 9 round-scored calls on 46 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 23.1% (3 hit, 10 miss, across 13 underdog calls on 46 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 54.3% 25 21
- Method Accuracy 50.0% 10 10
- Round Accuracy 0.0% 9
- Underdog Accuracy 23.1% 3 10
Current pick evidence
Picked: Jiří Procházka
Fight result: Carlos Ulberg · KO/TKO
RotoWire's UFC 327 expert-picks table lists Cole Shelton on Jiří Procházka.
Track record: winner called in 62 of 116 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 53.4% (62 hit, 54 miss, across 116 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 87.5% (7 hit, 1 miss, across 8 method-scored calls on 116 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Underdog Accuracy 16.7% (3 hit, 15 miss, across 18 underdog calls on 116 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 53.4% 62 54
- Method Accuracy 87.5% 7 1
- Round AccuracyNamed rounds — none on a correct call yet
- Underdog Accuracy 16.7% 3 15
Current pick evidence
Picked: Jiří Procházka
Fight result: Carlos Ulberg · KO/TKO
RotoWire's UFC 327 expert-picks table lists Joe SunTszu on Jiří Procházka.
Track record: winner called in 34 of 64 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 53.1% (34 hit, 30 miss, across 64 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 25.0% (4 hit, 12 miss, across 16 underdog calls on 64 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 53.1% 34 30
- Method AccuracyCalls the winner, not the method
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 25.0% 4 12
Current pick evidence
Picked: Jiří Procházka · Sub · Round 4
Fight result: Carlos Ulberg · KO/TKO
CBS Sports' UFC 327 expert-picks table lists Wise on Prochazka by fourth-round submission.
Track record: winner called in 21 of 43 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 48.8% (21 hit, 22 miss, across 43 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 40.0% (6 hit, 9 miss, across 15 method-scored calls on 43 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 12.5% (1 hit, 7 miss, across 8 round-scored calls on 43 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 8.3% (1 hit, 11 miss, across 12 underdog calls on 43 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 48.8% 21 22
- Method Accuracy 40.0% 6 9
- Round Accuracy 12.5% 1 7
- Underdog Accuracy 8.3% 1 11
Current pick evidence
Picked: Jiří Procházka
Fight result: Carlos Ulberg · KO/TKO
RotoWire's UFC 327 expert-picks table lists Chris Olson on Jiří Procházka.
Track record: winner called in 32 of 71 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 45.1% (32 hit, 39 miss, across 71 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (7 hit, 14 miss, across 21 underdog calls on 71 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 45.1% 32 39
- Method AccuracyNamed methods — none on a correct call yet
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 33.3% 7 14
Current pick evidence
Picked: Carlos Ulberg
Fight result: Carlos Ulberg · KO/TKO
RotoWire's UFC 327 expert-picks table lists Drake Burden on Carlos Ulberg.
Track record: winner called in 62 of 98 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 63.3% (62 hit, 36 miss, across 98 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 46.2% (6 hit, 7 miss, across 13 underdog calls on 98 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 63.3% 62 36
- Method AccuracyCalls the winner, not the method
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 46.2% 6 7
Current pick evidence
Picked: Carlos Ulberg · KO/TKO · Round 2
Fight result: Carlos Ulberg · KO/TKO
CBS Sports' UFC 327 expert-picks table lists Mormile on Ulberg by second-round KO.
Track record: winner called in 22 of 38 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 57.9% (22 hit, 16 miss, across 38 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 46.7% (7 hit, 8 miss, across 15 method-scored calls on 38 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 20.0% (1 hit, 4 miss, across 5 round-scored calls on 38 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 30.0% (3 hit, 7 miss, across 10 underdog calls on 38 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 57.9% 22 16
- Method Accuracy 46.7% 7 8
- Round Accuracy 20.0% 1 4
- Underdog Accuracy 30.0% 3 7
Current pick evidence
Picked: Carlos Ulberg
Fight result: Carlos Ulberg · KO/TKO
Sean Zerillo's Action Network UFC 327 moneyline picks back Carlos Ulberg.
Track record: winner called in 9 of 16 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 56.3% (9 hit, 7 miss, across 16 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 1 miss, across 1 method-scored calls on 16 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 14.3% (1 hit, 6 miss, across 7 underdog calls on 16 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 56.3% 9 7
- Method Accuracy 0.0% 1
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 14.3% 1 6
Current pick evidence
Picked: Carlos Ulberg · KO/TKO
Fight result: Carlos Ulberg · KO/TKO
MMA Mania's Jesse Holland pre-event prediction selects the listed winner by ko/tko.
Track record: winner called in 27 of 55 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 49.1% (27 hit, 28 miss, across 55 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 55.6% (15 hit, 12 miss, across 27 method-scored calls on 55 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 27.8% (5 hit, 13 miss, across 18 underdog calls on 55 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 49.1% 27 28
- Method Accuracy 55.6% 15 12
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 27.8% 5 13
Analyst picks: Bedtime MMA Miss; TheWeasle Miss; Lucas Tracy Miss; The MMA Guru Miss; Brent Brookhouse Miss; DFS By The Numbers Miss; We Want Picks Miss; Drake Burden Hit; Michael Iannone Miss; HopperMMA Miss; Jake Letarski Miss; Michael Mormile Hit; Jon Litterine Miss; Sean Zerillo Hit; Brian Campbell Miss; Shakiel Mahjouri Miss; Cole Shelton Miss; Joe SunTszu Miss; Jesse Holland Hit; Brandon Wise Miss; Chris Olson Miss.
Only 4 of 21 called the upset.
Chart: selected analyst picks, not a win probability. Pill badge: Winner hit rate (total scored picks before this event).
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The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.
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