YouTube channel covering MMA, boxing and combat-sports analysis.
HopperoMMA on YouTube ↗Track Record
Derived from every pick we've logged and verified — shown with its denominator, never a bare percentage. Draws and no-contests fall outside it. How Track Record works.
Called 29 of 45 resolved picks
8 of 29 hits also matched the method.
Call Profile
How this analyst's logged calls performed: winner, stated detail, and frozen pre-event underdog context.
22 calls included both method and round.
On the Card
HopperoMMA's picks for UFC Fight Night — tap a row for the reasoning and the source clip.
Upcoming Dulatov vs Turman PickDulatov · to win HopperoMMA: picks Dulatov · to win for Dulatov vs Turman — upcoming.
Names Islam Dulatov as the full-card pick in this preview.
Resolved Calls
What was predicted, what actually happened, and whether it hit.
Hit Ankalaev vs Guskov HopperoMMA: predicted Ankalaev · to win for Ankalaev vs Guskov. Actual Ankalaev · KO/TKO R5. Result: Hit.
Names Magomed Ankalaev as the full-card pick in this preview.
Hit Bonfim vs Sola HopperoMMA: predicted Sola · to win for Bonfim vs Sola. Actual Sola · Sub R1. Result: Hit.
Names Axel Sola as the full-card pick in this preview.
Miss Davis vs Aliev HopperoMMA: predicted Davis · to win for Davis vs Aliev. Actual Aliev · Dec. Result: Miss.
Names Mike Davis as the full-card pick in this preview.
Miss Erceg vs Temirov HopperoMMA: predicted Erceg · to win for Erceg vs Temirov. Actual Temirov · KO/TKO R1. Result: Miss.
Picks Steve Erceg, citing the more proven and well-rounded fighter after Temirov's long layoff.
Hit Gibson vs Hussein HopperoMMA: predicted Hussein · to win for Gibson vs Hussein. Actual Hussein · Sub R3. Result: Hit.
Names Abdul Hussein as the full-card pick in this preview.
Miss Jacoby vs Said HopperoMMA: predicted Jacoby · to win for Jacoby vs Said. Actual Said · KO/TKO R2. Result: Miss.
Names Dustin Jacoby as the full-card pick in this preview.
Hit Kuniev vs Fortune HopperoMMA: predicted Kuniev · to win for Kuniev vs Fortune. Actual Kuniev · KO/TKO R3. Result: Hit.
Names Rizvan Kuniev as the full-card pick in this preview.
Hit Ponzinibbio vs Patterson HopperoMMA: predicted Patterson · to win for Ponzinibbio vs Patterson. Actual Patterson · KO/TKO R2. Result: Hit.
Names Sam Patterson as the full-card pick in this preview.
Hit Tuchalov vs Ribeiro HopperoMMA: predicted Tuchalov · to win for Tuchalov vs Ribeiro. Actual Tuchalov · Dec. Result: Hit.
Names Magomed Tuchalov as the full-card pick in this preview.
Hit Vagaev vs Izagakhmaev HopperoMMA: predicted Vagaev · to win for Vagaev vs Izagakhmaev. Actual Vagaev · Dec. Result: Hit.
Names Abubakar Vagaev as the full-card pick in this preview.
Hit Walker vs Petersen HopperoMMA: predicted Walker · to win for Walker vs Petersen. Actual Walker · Sub R1. Result: Hit.
Names Valter Walker as the full-card pick in this preview.
Hit Zaynukov vs Rzepecki HopperoMMA: predicted Zaynukov · to win for Zaynukov vs Rzepecki. Actual Zaynukov · Dec. Result: Hit.
Names Magomed Zaynukov as the full-card pick in this preview.
Perfect Cortez vs Wang HopperoMMA: predicted Wang · Decision for Cortez vs Wang. Actual Wang · Dec. Result: Perfect.
Trusts Wang Cong's sharper striking and improved anti-grappling against Tracy Cortez's wrestling game. He expects Cortez to have moments, including possible takedowns, but thinks Wang keeps enough of the fight standing to win rounds.
Hit Costa vs Durden HopperoMMA: predicted Costa · KO/TKO · R1 for Costa vs Durden. Actual Costa · Sub R2. Result: Hit.
Sees Alessandro Costa as far too dangerous on the feet for Cody Durden. He expects Costa to keep the fight standing, punish Durden's defensive gaps and land the kind of power shot that ends the fight in round one.
Miss Gandra vs Reese HopperoMMA: predicted Reese · KO/TKO · R1 for Gandra vs Reese. Actual Gandra · KO/TKO R1. Result: Miss.
Picks Zachary Reese to rebound with his size, striking and finishing ability. He acknowledges Ryan Gandra looked good in his UFC arrival, but trusts Reese as the bigger, more rounded fighter with the power to end it early.
Hit Garbrandt vs Yañez HopperoMMA: predicted Yañez · KO/TKO · R2 for Garbrandt vs Yañez. Actual Yañez · KO/TKO R1. Result: Hit.
Leans Adrian Yanez because Cody Garbrandt's recent durability and defensive lapses worry him against a cleaner offensive boxer. He gives Garbrandt a chance, but expects Yanez's hands to catch up to him and force a second-round finish.
Hit McGregor vs Holloway HopperoMMA: predicted Holloway · KO/TKO · R2 for McGregor vs Holloway. Actual Holloway · KO/TKO R1. Result: Hit.
Picks Max Holloway because McGregor's long layoff, lifestyle questions and repaired leg are too much to trust against an active elite striker. He gives McGregor a puncher's chance, but expects Holloway's pace and current form to overwhelm him in round two.
Miss Pimblett vs Saint Denis HopperoMMA: predicted Saint Denis · Decision for Pimblett vs Saint Denis. Actual Pimblett · Sub R1. Result: Miss.
Calls it a close, low-confidence fight but picks Benoit Saint Denis for having more ways to win. He expects Saint Denis to punish Paddy Pimblett's striking defense, mix in his own grappling and do enough across three rounds.
Perfect Riley vs Kamaka HopperoMMA: predicted Riley · KO/TKO · R1 for Riley vs Kamaka. Actual Riley · KO/TKO R1. Result: Perfect.
Rates Luke Riley's boxing, Cage Warriors experience and finishing power well above the threat Kai Kamaka brings. He expects Riley to handle the grappling well enough and land a heavy first-round shot.
Miss Royval vs Kavanagh HopperoMMA: predicted Kavanagh · Decision for Royval vs Kavanagh. Actual Royval · Sub R3. Result: Miss.
Sides with Lone'er Kavanagh's speed, kicking game and technical striking in a striker-friendly matchup. He respects Brandon Royval's elite experience and volume, but thinks Kavanagh is the smoother fighter over three rounds.
Perfect Sandhagen vs Bautista HopperoMMA: predicted Bautista · Decision for Sandhagen vs Bautista. Actual Bautista · Dec. Result: Perfect.
Takes Mario Bautista as an underdog because he can threaten Cory Sandhagen in both striking and grappling phases. He thinks Sandhagen's elite schedule matters, but Bautista's all-around pressure gives Sandhagen more to solve than a one-discipline matchup.
Hit Steveson vs Ellison HopperoMMA: predicted Steveson · Sub · R1 for Steveson vs Ellison. Actual Steveson · KO/TKO R1. Result: Hit.
Backs Gable Steveson's Olympic wrestling and Jon Jones camp work to be too much for Elisha Ellison. He sees the matchup as designed for Steveson to get takedowns, control the fight and find an early submission.
Hit Whittaker vs Krylov HopperoMMA: predicted Whittaker · Decision for Whittaker vs Krylov. Actual Whittaker · KO/TKO R3. Result: Hit.
Picks Robert Whittaker to win on skill despite moving up to light heavyweight. He sees Nikita Krylov as a fair first opponent at the weight and expects Whittaker's striking class and takedown defense to carry a three-round decision.
Hit Lewis vs Hokit HopperoMMA: predicted Hokit · KO/TKO · R1 for Lewis vs Hokit. Actual Hokit · KO/TKO R2. Result: Hit.
Hokit has legit NFL-grade wrestling and Lewis has essentially none, having been out-grappled by much of the division. The host expects an immediate takedown and ground-and-pound, and believes Lewis — a known quitter in high-stakes fights — gives up once on his back.
- Medium confidence — Lewis is the hardest puncher in the division
- Hokit is hittable and must stick to grappling, not trade
- Win comes via ground-and-pound TKO in round one
Hit Lopes vs Garcia HopperoMMA: predicted Lopes · Decision for Lopes vs Garcia. Actual Lopes · KO/TKO R2. Result: Hit.
Garcia is a sloppy, very hittable fighter taking a massive step up, while Lopes has gone fifty minutes with Volkanovski and finished Jean Silva. The host thinks Lopes is a step ahead and too sharp, though Lopes tends to go to decision.
- Medium confidence — admits the odds (~63%) are closer than expected
- Garcia's danger is real — seven of his last eight by KO
- A very winnable stylistic matchup for Lopes, not a domination
Hit Nickal vs Daukaus HopperoMMA: predicted Nickal · Decision for Nickal vs Daukaus. Actual Nickal · KO/TKO R1. Result: Hit.
Nickal is favoured everywhere — underrated striking plus a huge wrestling base — and the host sees him a step ahead wherever it goes. Daukaus is dangerous and well-rounded and holds his own, but the host doesn't think he beats Nickal.
- Medium confidence — wary since the de Ridder loss
- Concern: a de Ridder repeat where Nickal looks good then gets finished
- Daukaus is a finishing threat everywhere
Perfect O'Malley vs Zahabi HopperoMMA: predicted O'Malley · KO/TKO · R2 for O'Malley vs Zahabi. Actual O'Malley · KO/TKO R2. Result: Perfect.
O'Malley has faced far better strikers and grapplers across his career than Zahabi, a 38-year-old who only barely beat Aldo and Vera. The host sees O'Malley as the most dynamic striker in the division and expects vintage form.
- High confidence — 'most winnable opponent O'Malley's had in years'
- MMA-math nod: O'Malley destroyed Vera, who pushed Zahabi close
- Predicts O'Malley's first finish since Almakdam
Miss Pereira vs Gane HopperoMMA: predicted Pereira · KO/TKO · R1 for Pereira vs Gane. Actual Gane · KO/TKO R2. Result: Miss.
Pereira has built a career knocking out elite technical strikers, while Gane's best striking win is Volkov and he carries no real grappling or knockout threat. Gane is smooth and hard to hit, but Pereira has the power and resume and the host trusts him to find a way.
- Low-confidence pick — unknown how Pereira looks at heavyweight
- Gane is the first opponent not smaller than Pereira
- Wants an instant DQ if Gane eye-pokes
Perfect Ruffy vs Chandler HopperoMMA: predicted Ruffy · KO/TKO · R1 for Ruffy vs Chandler. Actual Ruffy · KO/TKO R1. Result: Perfect.
Ruffy is one of the most precise strikers in the division after his KO of Fiziev, while the 40-year-old Chandler is hittable, droppable and coming off poor showings — even Pimblett out-struck him. The host expects Ruffy to counter Chandler's wild swings with a big shot.
- High confidence; sees the UFC building Ruffy
- Only path to a loss is if his grappling hasn't improved and Chandler leans on it
- Likely retires Chandler
Miss Topuria vs Gaethje HopperoMMA: predicted Topuria · KO/TKO · R1 for Topuria vs Gaethje. Actual Gaethje · KO/TKO R4. Result: Miss.
Gaethje is a brawly striker who gets dropped easily, while Topuria is the sharpest technical boxer in the UFC who specialises in knocking out technical strikers. The matchup is tailor-made for Topuria, who also out-grapples Gaethje if it hits the floor.
- Topuria has the edge everywhere, including grappling if it goes long
- Gaethje's only edge is heavy low kicks vs Topuria's front-leg-heavy stance
- Slight caveat: first fight since Topuria's divorce, could fight emotionally
“It's tailor made for Ilia.”
Miss Brady vs Buckley HopperoMMA: predicted Buckley · KO/TKO · R1 for Brady vs Buckley. Actual Brady · Dec. Result: Miss.
Buckley's explosive power and Brady's questionable chin point to a first-round TKO.
Miss Chimaev vs Strickland HopperoMMA: predicted Chimaev · Sub · R1 for Chimaev vs Strickland. Actual Strickland · Dec. Result: Miss.
Chimaev shoots immediately, gets it to the floor and submits Strickland in the first.
Hit Green vs Stephens HopperoMMA: predicted Green · KO/TKO for Green vs Stephens. Actual Green · Sub R1. Result: Hit.
Green's defensive boxing outclasses a low-level Stephens and finds a stoppage.
Miss Van vs Taira HopperoMMA: predicted Taira · Sub · R2 for Van vs Taira. Actual Van · KO/TKO R5. Result: Miss.
If it hits the ground Van is in trouble; Taira's grappling finds a second-round submission.
Perfect Volkov vs Cortes-Acosta HopperoMMA: predicted Volkov · Decision for Volkov vs Cortes-Acosta. Actual Volkov · Dec. Result: Perfect.
The best heavyweight on the planet keeps Acosta at range with kicks for a decision.
Hit Blaydes vs Hokit HopperoMMA: predicted Hokit · KO/TKO · R1 for Blaydes vs Hokit. Actual Hokit · Dec. Result: Hit.
Blaydes is on the downfall and Hokit is a nasty matchup; a first-round TKO.
Miss Costa vs Murzakanov HopperoMMA: predicted Murzakanov · KO/TKO · R2 for Costa vs Murzakanov. Actual Costa · KO/TKO R3. Result: Miss.
Costa is unreliable moving up in weight; Murzakanov's power gets a second-round KO.
Miss Prochazka vs Ulberg HopperoMMA: predicted Prochazka · KO/TKO · R3 for Prochazka vs Ulberg. Actual Ulberg · KO/TKO R1. Result: Miss.
Ulberg looks good early but Jiri lands the big shot for a third-round TKO.
Hit Reyes vs Walker HopperoMMA: predicted Reyes · KO/TKO · R1 for Reyes vs Walker. Actual Reyes · Dec. Result: Hit.
Reyes is a level above and finds Walker's chin first for a first-round KO.
Hit Swanson vs Landwehr HopperoMMA: predicted Swanson · KO/TKO · R3 for Swanson vs Landwehr. Actual Swanson · KO/TKO R1. Result: Hit.
Swanson's boxing and experience win a war, finishing Landwehr in the third.
Miss Adesanya vs Pyfer HopperoMMA: predicted Adesanya · Decision for Adesanya vs Pyfer. Actual Pyfer · KO/TKO R2. Result: Miss.
Adesanya's striking is light-years ahead even past prime; the safe pick is a decision.
Perfect Chiesa vs Price HopperoMMA: predicted Chiesa · Sub · R1 for Chiesa vs Price. Actual Chiesa · Sub R1. Result: Perfect.
Chiesa has submission momentum and takes down a washed Price for a first-round sub.
Perfect Erosa vs Douglas HopperoMMA: predicted Douglas · KO/TKO · R1 for Erosa vs Douglas. Actual Douglas · KO/TKO R1. Result: Perfect.
Douglas's boxing and KO power find a hittable Erosa's chin early.
Miss Grasso vs Barber HopperoMMA: predicted Barber · Decision for Grasso vs Barber. Actual Grasso · KO/TKO R1. Result: Miss.
Barber is the more relentless wrestler and controls Grasso for a decision.
Miss McKinney vs Nelson HopperoMMA: predicted Nelson · KO/TKO · R1 for McKinney vs Nelson. Actual McKinney · KO/TKO R1. Result: Miss.
Nelson's power exploits McKinney's glass chin once he survives the early onslaught.