HopperoMMA

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Winner called58 of 92

Every resolved pick

Method called30 of 49

Correct-winner picks naming a method

Round called14 of 27

Correct-winner picks naming a round

Scorecard

Called 58 of 92 resolved picks — every call traced to its source, no bare percentage. How Track Record works.

75.2%

FightCardIQ Score

Winner 58 34
Method 30 19
Round 14 13
Underdog 2 9

Hit Miss

The running record

Every figure below is cumulative — computed over all resolved calls up to and including each card, never one card on its own. A cumulative rate settles as the denominator grows, so its flattening is arithmetic, not a verdict: read where a line sits, and read the vs. the field strip for whether this analyst gained or lost ground on the rest of the roster. Winner is scored on every resolved call; method, round and underdog each have a different and much smaller base, printed beside each one.

Hit Miss Field median Gap to the field

Score and record, card by card one step per card — score on the left, hits above the line, misses below, counted on the right; the strip between them is the gap to the rest of the roster

FightCardIQ Score cumulative, over every call up to each card

75.2 now, across 11 cards. The first 3 cards are drawn dashed and hollow: below 20 resolved calls there is no published score yet. The shaded band is where the whole ranked field sits — 59.7 to 92.5 across 18 analysts, this one included.

Winnerof resolved calls

58 of 92 — 63% now, from 40% at their first scored card.

Method
61% 30 of 49 correct winners that named a method
Round
52% 14 of 27 correct winners that named a round
Underdog
18% 2 of 11 priced underdog calls

The opening points are drawn dashed and hollow: below 5 scored calls this rate is not yet a reliable figure.

Card by card

Newest card first — the charts above run oldest to newest. One mark per scored call, hits above the line and misses below. Every call is listed in Call History, below.

Hooker vs. Parnasse 75.2 9 hit · 5 miss
Nurmagomedov vs. Song 76.1 8 hit · 5 miss
UFC 330 75.5 4 hit · 4 miss
Gamrot vs. Salkilld 76.9 3 hit · 1 miss
Medic vs. Rodriguez 75.6 5 hit · 3 miss
Ankalaev vs. Guskov 74.6 9 hit · 3 miss
UFC 329 74.5 8 hit · 3 miss
UFC Freedom 250 67.0 5 hit · 2 miss
UFC 328 56.7 2 hit · 3 miss
UFC 327 62.5 3 hit · 2 miss
UFC Seattle 60.0 2 hit · 3 miss

Call History

Every logged call, grouped by event, scored on Winner, Method, and Round — nothing about a result ever sits behind a click.

underdog pick favourite pick — shown only for picks with a known pre-fight price. The percentage is the chance the market gave the fighter this analyst picked. Open a row for the price’s source and the credit it earned.

Silva vs. Delgado

Sep 12, 2026 · Desert Diamond Arena, Glendale, Arizona

Fight	Pick	Actual
Aldrich vs Tarin	Tarin · Dec	Upcoming
King vs Rosas	King · to win	Upcoming
Garcia vs Rongzhu	Garcia · Dec	Upcoming
Klose vs Gantt	Gantt · Dec	Upcoming
Belgaroui vs Santos	Belgaroui · KO/TKO · R1	Upcoming
Bahamondes vs Salikhov	Bahamondes · Dec	Upcoming
Elliott vs Chairez	Chairez · to win	Upcoming
Martinez vs Ige	Martinez · Dec	Upcoming
Fiorot vs Grasso	Grasso · Dec	Upcoming
McMillen vs Rahiki	Rahiki · KO/TKO · R1	Upcoming
Moreno vs Morales	Moreno · Dec	Upcoming
Silva vs Delgado	Silva · KO/TKO	Upcoming

Hooker vs. Parnasse

Sep 5, 2026 · Accor Arena, Paris, France

Event scorecard

Winner 9 5
Method 3 6
Round 2
Underdog 1 1

Fight	Pick	Actual	Winner	Method	Round
	Aljarouj · KO/TKO · R2	Sintes · Dec	Miss	Not applicable — the winner call missed	Not applicable — the winner call missed
Favours Aljarouj's crisper striking over Sintes' grappling-heavy but rougher debut profile. “I'm going to go with Michael Alro to win this one by TKO in the second round.” Hear it — 2:46 View this fight →
	Montenegro · Dec	Benouaich · Sub R2	Miss	Not applicable — the winner call missed	Not applicable — the winner call missed
Rates Montenegro's Contender Series form and power above Benouaich's résumé in what he calls a pick'em. “I'm going to go with Montenegro to win this one by decision.” Hear it — 1:37 View this fight →
	Favourite call, market price 76.6%. Campbell · Sub · R1	Campbell · Sub R3	Hit	Hit	Miss
Expects Campbell's grappling to overwhelm a rusty, defensively loose Peek early. “I'm going to go with Curtis Campbell by submission in the first round.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 76.6% before the fight, from the pre-event sportsbook consensus frozen before the fight. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. Hear it — 14:22 View this fight →
	Lima · Dec	Lima · Dec	Hit	Hit	Not called
Rates Lima's grappling and pace above Charriere's toughness. “I'm going to go Felipe Lima by decision.” Hear it — 18:24 View this fight →
	Cornolle · Dec	Cornolle · Dec	Hit	Hit	Not called
Argues Cornolle's striking and level of opposition outweigh the hype around Syguła; calls it an underdog pick. “I'm going to go Norah Cornoli by decision.” Hear it — 5:10 View this fight →
	Favourite call, market price 67.4%. Donchenko · KO/TKO · R2	Donchenko · Dec	Hit	Miss	Miss
Favours Donchenko's pressure and finishing habit over Soriano's underrated but less tested record. “I'm going to go with Daniel Donenko Biko in the second round.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 67.4% before the fight, from the pre-event sportsbook consensus frozen before the fight. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. Hear it — 16:32 View this fight →
	Dias · to win	Duclos · KO/TKO R1	Miss	Not applicable — the winner call missed	Not applicable — the winner call missed
Calls it a genuine toss-up between two finishers and leans to Dias as the more experienced and rounded of the two. “I'm probably leaning towards Luis Felipe Diaz winning this fight.” Hear it — 10:29 View this fight →
	Favourite call, market price 80.8%. Parnasse · Dec	Parnasse · KO/TKO R1	Hit	Miss	Not called
Sees Parnasse as the clearly superior striker in his prime against a faded, one-dimensional Hooker. “But I'm going to go Saladine Parnsi by decision.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 80.8% before the fight, from the pre-event sportsbook consensus frozen before the fight. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. Hear it — 29:40 View this fight →
	Favourite call, market price 76.3%. Keita · Dec	Keita · KO/TKO R1	Hit	Miss	Not called
Thinks Keita's power and speed carry him past a Naimov he sees as beating only lesser opposition. “I'm going to go Lin Kaid by decision.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 76.3% before the fight, from the pre-event sportsbook consensus frozen before the fight. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. Hear it — 20:25 View this fight →
	Underdog call, market price 34.9%. Ruziboev · Dec	Page · Dec	Miss	Not applicable — the winner call missed	Not applicable — the winner call missed
Argues Page's grappling weakness gets exposed by Ruziboev's underrated wrestling. “Yeah, I'm going to go Rusev to be MVP by decision.” Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 34.9% before the fight, from the pre-event sportsbook consensus frozen before the fight. Underdog credit earned: 0.00 — credit is earned only on a correct call. Hear it — 23:51 View this fight →
	Pinto · Dec	Pinto · KO/TKO R2	Hit	Miss	Not called
Trusts Pinto's rounded skill set over Spann's one-dimensional power despite a dull last outing. “I'm going to go Mario Pinto by decision.” Hear it — 9:12 View this fight →
	Bukauskas · Dec	Bukauskas · KO/TKO R2	Hit	Miss	Not called
Doubts Sy's record against real competition and prefers Bukauskas' steadier UFC form. “I'm going to go Modest Picowskis by decision.” Hear it — 6:06 View this fight →
	Wood · Dec	Andrusca · Dec	Miss	Not applicable — the winner call missed	Not applicable — the winner call missed
Rates Wood's technical striking far above a short-notice regional debutant. “I'm going Nathaniel Wood to win this one by decision.” Hear it — 12:30 View this fight →
	Underdog call, market price 41.9%. Sola · Dec	Sola · KO/TKO R1	Hit	Miss	Not called
Leans to Sola after Ziam's poor showing against Tom Nolan, while calling the fight very close. “I'm going to go Axel Solar to win this one by decision.” Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 41.9% before the fight, from the pre-event sportsbook consensus frozen before the fight. Underdog credit earned: 0.16 — (50% − 41.9%) ÷ 50%. Hear it — 25:08 View this fight →

Nurmagomedov vs. Song

Aug 29, 2026 · Oriental Sports Center, Shanghai, China

Event scorecard

Winner 8 5
Method 7 1
Round 2 2
UnderdogNo underdog calls with a known pre-fight price

Fight	Pick	Actual	Winner	Method	Round
	Asakura · KO/TKO · R1	Asakura · KO/TKO R2	Hit	Hit	Miss
Picks Kai Asakura by first-round knockout. “Asakura by KO in the first round.” Hear it — 18:31 View this fight →
	Lima · Dec	Lima · Sub R3	Hit	Miss	Not called
Picks Andre Lima by decision. “Andre Lima by decision.” Hear it — 8:07 View this fight →
	Ce · KO/TKO · R1	Ce · KO/TKO R1	Hit	Hit	Hit
Picks Liu Ce by first-round knockout. “I'm going to go Liu Ce by KO in the first round.” Hear it — 14:00 View this fight →
	Hasan · KO/TKO · R1	Hasan · KO/TKO R2	Hit	Hit	Miss
Picks Bilal Hasan by first-round knockout. “Bilal Hasan by KO in the first one.” Hear it — 15:20 View this fight →
	Woodson · Dec	Woodson · Dec	Hit	Hit	Not called
Picks Sean Woodson by decision. “I'm going to go Sean Woodson by decision.” Hear it — 12:43 View this fight →
	Jingnan · Dec	Polastri · KO/TKO R1	Miss	Not applicable — the winner call missed	Not applicable — the winner call missed
Picks Xiong Jingnan by decision. “I'm going to go Jingnan by decision.” Hear it — 3:36 View this fight →
	Lui · Dec	Santiago · KO/TKO R2	Miss	Not applicable — the winner call missed	Not applicable — the winner call missed
Picks Lawrence Lui by decision. “Lawrence Lui by decision.” Hear it — 5:06 View this fight →
	Nelson · Dec	Nelson · Dec	Hit	Hit	Not called
Picks Cam Nelson by decision. “I'm going to go Cam Nelson by decision.” Hear it — 1:55 View this fight →
	Nurmagomedov · Dec	Yadong · KO/TKO R2	Miss	Not applicable — the winner call missed	Not applicable — the winner call missed
Picks Umar Nurmagomedov by decision. “Umar Nurmagomedov by decision.” Hear it — 25:25 View this fight →
	Sumudaerji · Dec	Sumudaerji · Dec	Hit	Hit	Not called
Picks Sumudaerji by decision. “I'm going to go Sumudaerji by decision.” Hear it — 16:27 View this fight →
	Tsuruya · Sub · R1	Tsuruya · Sub R1	Hit	Hit	Hit
Picks Rei Tsuruya by first-round submission. “Rei Tsuruya by sub in the first round.” Hear it — 9:52 View this fight →
	Long · Dec	Nuzzi · KO/TKO R1	Miss	Not applicable — the winner call missed	Not applicable — the winner call missed
Picks Xiao Long by decision. “I'mma go Long Xiao by decision.” Hear it — 7:03 View this fight →
	Xiaonan · Dec	Gomes · KO/TKO R1	Miss	Not applicable — the winner call missed	Not applicable — the winner call missed
Picks Yan Xiaonan by decision. “Yan Xiaonan by decision.” Hear it — 21:49 View this fight →

UFC 330

Makhachev vs. Machado Garry

Aug 15, 2026 · Xfinity Mobile Arena, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania

Event scorecard

Winner 4 4
Method 3 1
Round 2
Underdog 2

Fight	Pick	Actual	Winner	Method	Round
	Favourite call, market price 72.5%. Fernando · KO/TKO · R3	Fernando · KO/TKO R3	Hit	Hit	Hit
Rates Fernando's striking above Tobias's takedown threat and expects the debutant to take over late. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 72.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. Hear it — 2:15 View this fight →
	Favourite call, market price 58.5%. Brahimaj · Dec	Magny · KO/TKO R2	Miss	Not applicable — the winner call missed	Not applicable — the winner call missed
Sees Brahimaj as the more dangerous fighter and backs him to win a decision despite acknowledging Magny's paths to victory. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 58.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. Hear it — 3:05 View this fight →
	Favourite call, market price 75.5%. Johnson · Dec	Johnson · KO/TKO R1	Hit	Miss	Not called
Backs Johnson's size and overall game over McConico, while classing the matchup as lower-level. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 75.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. Hear it — 6:59 View this fight →
	Underdog call, market price 48.5%. Fernandes · Dec	Turner · KO/TKO R1	Miss	Not applicable — the winner call missed	Not applicable — the winner call missed
Favors Fernandes's activity and sees Turner as too uncertain at this stage of his career. Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 48.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Underdog credit earned: 0.00 — credit is earned only on a correct call. Hear it — 9:12 View this fight →
	Favourite call, market price 73.5%. Álvarez · Dec	Njokuani · Dec R3	Miss	Not applicable — the winner call missed	Not applicable — the winner call missed
Favors Álvarez after noting Njokuani's recent form, but expects a decision rather than a finish. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 73.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. Hear it — 13:23 View this fight →
	Favourite call, market price 85.5%. Ribovics · KO/TKO · R2	Ribovics · KO/TKO R2	Hit	Hit	Hit
Expects Ribovics's pressure and finishing threat to be too much for the 40-year-old Barboza. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 85.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. Hear it — 18:21 View this fight →
	Underdog call, market price 36.5%. Robertson · Dec	Dern · Dec R5	Miss	Not applicable — the winner call missed	Not applicable — the winner call missed
Favors Robertson's broader grappling game and expects her to win a decision over Dern. Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 36.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Underdog credit earned: 0.00 — credit is earned only on a correct call. Hear it — 20:50 View this fight →
	Favourite call, market price 73.5%. Makhachev · Dec	Makhachev · Dec R5	Hit	Hit	Not called
Acknowledges Garry's range and intelligence but expects Makhachev's all-round game and experience to win a competitive decision. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 73.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. Hear it — 24:29 View this fight →

Gamrot vs. Salkilld

Aug 8, 2026 · Meta APEX, Las Vegas, Nevada

Event scorecard

Winner 3 1
Method 2 1
Round 1 1
Underdog 1

Fight	Pick	Actual	Winner	Method	Round
	Underdog call, market price 42.5%. Gamrot · to win	Salkilld · Sub R1	Miss	Not applicable — the winner call missed	Not applicable — the winner call missed
Goes with Gamrot without committing to a method. Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 42.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Underdog credit earned: 0.00 — credit is earned only on a correct call. Hear it — 23:24 View this fight →
	Favourite call, market price 60.5%. Ferreira · Dec	Ferreira · Dec	Hit	Hit	Not called
Calls a unanimous decision for Ferreira. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 60.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. Hear it — 20:53 View this fight →
	Favourite call, market price 87.5%. del Valle · Sub · R1	del Valle · KO/TKO R1	Hit	Miss	Hit
Expects del Valle to take Elkins down and submit him, citing the knockout loss to Erosa as evidence Elkins no longer belongs at this level. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 87.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. Hear it — 10:01 View this fight →
	Favourite call, market price 79.5%. Miller · KO/TKO · R1	Miller · KO/TKO R3	Hit	Hit	Miss
Backs Miller to get the knockout inside the opening round. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 79.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. Hear it — 10:57 View this fight →

Medic vs. Rodriguez

Aug 1, 2026 · Belgrade Arena, Belgrade, Serbia

Event scorecard

Winner 5 3
Method 3 2
Round 3 1
Underdog 1

Fight	Pick	Actual	Winner	Method	Round
	Favourite call, market price 77.5%. Medić · KO/TKO · R1	Medić · KO/TKO R1	Hit	Hit	Hit
Leans heavily on Rodriguez's long layoff and reads him as a lesser version of Geoff Neal, whom Medic already knocked out. Expects Medic to rush him immediately in front of a wild Serbian crowd. “I'm going to go with Uroš Medić to KO D'Rod in the first round.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 77.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. Hear it — 24:33 View this fight →
	Underdog call, market price 24.5%. Błachowicz · Dec	Stirling · KO/TKO R1	Miss	Not applicable — the winner call missed	Not applicable — the winner call missed
Says Blachowicz has had close fights with every monster at 205 and still has it at 43, while Stirling's record flatters him. Calls the step up on short notice too much too soon. “I'm going to go with Jan Błachowicz by decision.” Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 24.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Underdog credit earned: 0.00 — credit is earned only on a correct call. Hear it — 21:06 View this fight →
	Favourite call, market price 76.5%. Rakić · KO/TKO · R3	Rakić · Dec R3	Hit	Miss	Miss
Calls Tybura a beatable gatekeeper who has looked awful in his last two, while Rakic is the far better, taller, more powerful striker who should suit heavyweight better. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 76.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. Hear it — 18:10 View this fight →
	Favourite call, market price 58.5%. Valentin · Sub · R1	Valentin · Sub R1	Hit	Hit	Hit
Sees Todorovic as very beatable with never-great grappling, and expects the newly locked-in Valentin to skip the striking war, shoot a takedown and hunt a finish on the mat. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 58.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. Hear it — 13:46 View this fight →
	Favourite call, market price 73.5%. Cepo · KO/TKO · R1	Urbina · KO/TKO R1	Miss	Not applicable — the winner call missed	Not applicable — the winner call missed
Backs Cepo's 100% finish rate and Oktagon form in front of a home crowd, and dismisses Urbina as 7-4 with one UFC win and finished in his last two. “I'm going to go with Vlasto Cepo by KO in the first round.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 73.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. Hear it — 15:20 View this fight →
	Favourite call, market price 76.5%. Oliveira · KO/TKO · R1	Oliveira · KO/TKO R1	Hit	Hit	Hit
Says he was never on the Oban Elliott hype train — good everywhere, great nowhere — against an athletic undefeated Brazilian with an 89% KO rate. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 76.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. Hear it — 3:53 View this fight →
	Favourite call, market price 69.5%. Klein · Dec	Musayev · KO/TKO R2	Miss	Not applicable — the winner call missed	Not applicable — the winner call missed
Rates Klein one of the best unranked lightweights with the fight IQ, UFC experience and grappling edge, even conceding Musayev is the more powerful striker. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 69.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. Hear it — 10:52 View this fight →
	Favourite call, market price 65.5%. Grad · Dec	Grad · Sub R2	Hit	Miss	Not called
Says being semi-good is enough to beat Buzukja, and Grad is a good grappler with solid stand-up who out-grappled Luke Riley early. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 65.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. Hear it — 7:51 View this fight →

Ankalaev vs. Guskov

Jul 25, 2026 · Etihad Arena, Abu Dhabi

Event scorecard

Winner 9 3
MethodCalls the winner, not the method
RoundCalls the winner, not the round
Underdog 1

Fight	Pick	Actual	Winner	Method	Round
	Favourite call, market price 82.5%. Ankalaev · to win	Ankalaev · KO/TKO R5	Hit	Not called	Not called
Names Magomed Ankalaev as the full-card pick in this preview. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 82.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. Hear it — 26:48 View this fight →
	Favourite call, market price 76.5%. Kuniev · to win	Kuniev · KO/TKO R3	Hit	Not called	Not called
Names Rizvan Kuniev as the full-card pick in this preview. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 76.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. Hear it — 17:58 View this fight →
Dulatov vs Turman	Dulatov · to win	Upcoming
	Favourite call, market price 63.5%. Sola · to win	Sola · Sub R1	Hit	Not called	Not called
Names Axel Sola as the full-card pick in this preview. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 63.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. Hear it — 6:32 View this fight →
	Favourite call, market price 62.5%. Walker · to win	Walker · Sub R1	Hit	Not called	Not called
Names Valter Walker as the full-card pick in this preview. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 62.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. Hear it — 13:56 View this fight →
	Favourite call, market price 87.5%. Tuchalov · to win	Tuchalov · Dec	Hit	Not called	Not called
Names Magomed Tuchalov as the full-card pick in this preview. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 87.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. Hear it — 5:40 View this fight →
	Favourite call, market price 71.5%. Zaynukov · to win	Zaynukov · Dec	Hit	Not called	Not called
Names Magomed Zaynukov as the full-card pick in this preview. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 71.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. Hear it — 19:29 View this fight →
	Underdog call, market price 32.5%. Davis · to win	Aliev · Dec	Miss	Not applicable — the winner call missed	Not applicable — the winner call missed
Names Mike Davis as the full-card pick in this preview. Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 32.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Underdog credit earned: 0.00 — credit is earned only on a correct call. Hear it — 3:35 View this fight →
	Erceg · to win	Temirov · KO/TKO R1	Miss	Not applicable — the winner call missed	Not applicable — the winner call missed
Picks Steve Erceg, citing the more proven and well-rounded fighter after Temirov's long layoff. Hear it — 21:39 View this fight →
	Favourite call, market price 80.5%. Patterson · to win	Patterson · KO/TKO R2	Hit	Not called	Not called
Names Sam Patterson as the full-card pick in this preview. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 80.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. Hear it — 8:31 View this fight →
	Favourite call, market price 67.0%. Vagaev · to win	Vagaev · Dec	Hit	Not called	Not called
Names Abubakar Vagaev as the full-card pick in this preview. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 67.0% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. Hear it — 12:16 View this fight →
	Jacoby · to win	Saidov · KO/TKO R2	Miss	Not applicable — the winner call missed	Not applicable — the winner call missed
Names Dustin Jacoby as the full-card pick in this preview. Hear it — 10:30 View this fight →
	Favourite call, market price 84.5%. Hussein · to win	Hussein · Sub R3	Hit	Not called	Not called
Names Abdul Hussein as the full-card pick in this preview. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 84.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. Hear it — 1:30 View this fight →

UFC 329

McGregor vs. Holloway 2

Jul 11, 2026 · Las Vegas, Nevada

Event scorecard

Winner 8 3
Method 5 3
Round 2 3
Underdog 1 1

Fight	Pick	Actual	Winner	Method	Round
	Favourite call, market price 71.5%. Holloway · KO/TKO · R2	Holloway · KO/TKO R1	Hit	Hit	Miss
Picks Max Holloway because McGregor's long layoff, lifestyle questions and repaired leg are too much to trust against an active elite striker. He gives McGregor a puncher's chance, but expects Holloway's pace and current form to overwhelm him in round two. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 71.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. Hear it — 31:19 View this fight →
	Underdog call, market price 42.5%. Bautista · Dec	Bautista · Dec	Hit	Hit	Not called
Takes Mario Bautista as an underdog because he can threaten Cory Sandhagen in both striking and grappling phases. He thinks Sandhagen's elite schedule matters, but Bautista's all-around pressure gives Sandhagen more to solve than a one-discipline matchup. Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 42.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Underdog credit earned: 0.15 — (50% − 42.5%) ÷ 50%. Hear it — 22:02 View this fight →
	Favourite call, market price 68.5%. Kavanagh · Dec	Royval · Sub R3	Miss	Not applicable — the winner call missed	Not applicable — the winner call missed
Sides with Lone'er Kavanagh's speed, kicking game and technical striking in a striker-friendly matchup. He respects Brandon Royval's elite experience and volume, but thinks Kavanagh is the smoother fighter over three rounds. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 68.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. Hear it — 18:32 View this fight →
	Favourite call, market price 89.5%. Steveson · Sub · R1	Steveson · KO/TKO R1	Hit	Miss	Hit
Backs Gable Steveson's Olympic wrestling and Jon Jones camp work to be too much for Elisha Ellison. He sees the matchup as designed for Steveson to get takedowns, control the fight and find an early submission. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 89.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. Hear it — 9:09 View this fight →
	Favourite call, market price 53.5%. Whittaker · Dec	Whittaker · KO/TKO R3	Hit	Miss	Not called
Picks Robert Whittaker to win on skill despite moving up to light heavyweight. He sees Nikita Krylov as a fair first opponent at the weight and expects Whittaker's striking class and takedown defense to carry a three-round decision. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 53.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. Hear it — 11:38 View this fight →
	Favourite call, market price 53.5%. Wang · Dec	Wang · Dec	Hit	Hit	Not called
Trusts Wang Cong's sharper striking and improved anti-grappling against Tracy Cortez's wrestling game. He expects Cortez to have moments, including possible takedowns, but thinks Wang keeps enough of the fight standing to win rounds. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 53.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. Hear it — 2:55 View this fight →
	Favourite call, market price 69.5%. Riley · KO/TKO · R1	Riley · KO/TKO R1	Hit	Hit	Hit
Rates Luke Riley's boxing, Cage Warriors experience and finishing power well above the threat Kai Kamaka brings. He expects Riley to handle the grappling well enough and land a heavy first-round shot. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 69.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. Hear it — 4:50 View this fight →
	Favourite call, market price 77.5%. Yañez · KO/TKO · R2	Yañez · KO/TKO R1	Hit	Hit	Miss
Leans Adrian Yanez because Cody Garbrandt's recent durability and defensive lapses worry him against a cleaner offensive boxer. He gives Garbrandt a chance, but expects Yanez's hands to catch up to him and force a second-round finish. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 77.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. Hear it — 6:57 View this fight →
	Underdog call, market price 44.5%. Reese · KO/TKO · R1	Gandra · KO/TKO R1	Miss	Not applicable — the winner call missed	Not applicable — the winner call missed
Picks Zachary Reese to rebound with his size, striking and finishing ability. He acknowledges Ryan Gandra looked good in his UFC arrival, but trusts Reese as the bigger, more rounded fighter with the power to end it early. Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 44.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Underdog credit earned: 0.00 — credit is earned only on a correct call. Hear it — 0:27 View this fight →
	Favourite call, market price 67.5%. Costa · KO/TKO · R1	Costa · Sub R2	Hit	Miss	Miss
Sees Alessandro Costa as far too dangerous on the feet for Cody Durden. He expects Costa to keep the fight standing, punish Durden's defensive gaps and land the kind of power shot that ends the fight in round one. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 67.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. Hear it — 1:07 View this fight →
	Favourite call, market price 53.5%. Saint Denis · Dec	Pimblett · Sub R1	Miss	Not applicable — the winner call missed	Not applicable — the winner call missed
Calls it a close, low-confidence fight but picks Benoit Saint Denis for having more ways to win. He expects Saint Denis to punish Paddy Pimblett's striking defense, mix in his own grappling and do enough across three rounds. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 53.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. Hear it — 25:50 View this fight →

UFC Freedom 250

Topuria vs. Gaethje

Jun 14, 2026 · Washington, D.C.

Event scorecard

Winner 5 2
Method 3 2
Round 2 1
UnderdogNo underdog calls with a known pre-fight price

Fight	Pick	Actual	Winner	Method	Round
	Favourite call, market price 79.5%. Topuria · KO/TKO · R1	Gaethje · KO/TKO R4	Miss	Not applicable — the winner call missed	Not applicable — the winner call missed
Gaethje is a brawly striker who gets dropped easily, while Topuria is the sharpest technical boxer in the UFC who specialises in knocking out technical strikers. The matchup is tailor-made for Topuria, who also out-grapples Gaethje if it hits the floor. Topuria has the edge everywhere, including grappling if it goes long Gaethje's only edge is heavy low kicks vs Topuria's front-leg-heavy stance Slight caveat: first fight since Topuria's divorce, could fight emotionally “It's tailor made for Ilia.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 79.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. Hear it — 24:06 View this fight →
	Favourite call, market price 52.5%. Pereira · KO/TKO · R1	Gane · KO/TKO R2	Miss	Not applicable — the winner call missed	Not applicable — the winner call missed
Pereira has built a career knocking out elite technical strikers, while Gane's best striking win is Volkov and he carries no real grappling or knockout threat. Gane is smooth and hard to hit, but Pereira has the power and resume and the host trusts him to find a way. Low-confidence pick — unknown how Pereira looks at heavyweight Gane is the first opponent not smaller than Pereira Wants an instant DQ if Gane eye-pokes Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 52.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. Hear it — 19:46 View this fight →
	Favourite call, market price 77.5%. O'Malley · KO/TKO · R2	O'Malley · KO/TKO R2	Hit	Hit	Hit
O'Malley has faced far better strikers and grapplers across his career than Zahabi, a 38-year-old who only barely beat Aldo and Vera. The host sees O'Malley as the most dynamic striker in the division and expects vintage form. High confidence — 'most winnable opponent O'Malley's had in years' MMA-math nod: O'Malley destroyed Vera, who pushed Zahabi close Predicts O'Malley's first finish since Almakdam Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 77.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. Hear it — 16:57 View this fight →
	Favourite call, market price 79.5%. Hokit · KO/TKO · R1	Hokit · KO/TKO R2	Hit	Hit	Miss
Hokit has legit NFL-grade wrestling and Lewis has essentially none, having been out-grappled by much of the division. The host expects an immediate takedown and ground-and-pound, and believes Lewis — a known quitter in high-stakes fights — gives up once on his back. Medium confidence — Lewis is the hardest puncher in the division Hokit is hittable and must stick to grappling, not trade Win comes via ground-and-pound TKO in round one Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 79.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. Hear it — 12:53 View this fight →
	Favourite call, market price 81.0%. Ruffy · KO/TKO · R1	Ruffy · KO/TKO R1	Hit	Hit	Hit
Ruffy is one of the most precise strikers in the division after his KO of Fiziev, while the 40-year-old Chandler is hittable, droppable and coming off poor showings — even Pimblett out-struck him. The host expects Ruffy to counter Chandler's wild swings with a big shot. High confidence; sees the UFC building Ruffy Only path to a loss is if his grappling hasn't improved and Chandler leans on it Likely retires Chandler Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 81.0% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. Hear it — 11:20 View this fight →
	Favourite call, market price 75.5%. Nickal · Dec	Nickal · KO/TKO R1	Hit	Miss	Not called
Nickal is favoured everywhere — underrated striking plus a huge wrestling base — and the host sees him a step ahead wherever it goes. Daukaus is dangerous and well-rounded and holds his own, but the host doesn't think he beats Nickal. Medium confidence — wary since the de Ridder loss Concern: a de Ridder repeat where Nickal looks good then gets finished Daukaus is a finishing threat everywhere Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 75.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. Hear it — 6:38 View this fight →
	Favourite call, market price 59.5%. Lopes · Dec	Lopes · KO/TKO R2	Hit	Miss	Not called
Garcia is a sloppy, very hittable fighter taking a massive step up, while Lopes has gone fifty minutes with Volkanovski and finished Jean Silva. The host thinks Lopes is a step ahead and too sharp, though Lopes tends to go to decision. Medium confidence — admits the odds (~63%) are closer than expected Garcia's danger is real — seven of his last eight by KO A very winnable stylistic matchup for Lopes, not a domination Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 59.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. Hear it — 3:12 View this fight →

UFC 328

May 9, 2026 · Newark, New Jersey

Event scorecard

Winner 2 3
Method 1 1
RoundNamed rounds — none on a correct call yet
UnderdogNo underdog calls with a known pre-fight price

Fight	Pick	Actual	Winner	Method	Round
	Favourite call, market price 80.5%. Chimaev · Sub · R1	Strickland · Dec	Miss	Not applicable — the winner call missed	Not applicable — the winner call missed
Chimaev shoots immediately, gets it to the floor and submits Strickland in the first. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 80.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. Hear it — 28:43 View this fight →
	Favourite call, market price 60.5%. Taira · Sub · R2	Van · KO/TKO R5	Miss	Not applicable — the winner call missed	Not applicable — the winner call missed
If it hits the ground Van is in trouble; Taira's grappling finds a second-round submission. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 60.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. Hear it — 26:02
	Favourite call, market price 56.5%. Volkov · Dec	Volkov · Dec	Hit	Hit	Not called
The best heavyweight on the planet keeps Acosta at range with kicks for a decision. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 56.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. Hear it — 23:14
	Favourite call, market price 62.5%. Buckley · KO/TKO · R1	Brady · Dec	Miss	Not applicable — the winner call missed	Not applicable — the winner call missed
Buckley's explosive power and Brady's questionable chin point to a first-round TKO. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 62.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. Hear it — 20:01
	Favourite call, market price 79.5%. Green · KO/TKO	Green · Sub R1	Hit	Miss	Not called
Green's defensive boxing outclasses a low-level Stephens and finds a stoppage. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 79.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. Hear it — 17:43

UFC 327

Apr 11, 2026 · Miami, Florida

Event scorecard

Winner 3 2
Method 1 2
Round 3
Underdog 1

Fight	Pick	Actual	Winner	Method	Round
	Underdog call, market price 49.5%. Prochazka · KO/TKO · R3	Ulberg · KO/TKO R1	Miss	Not applicable — the winner call missed	Not applicable — the winner call missed
Ulberg looks good early but Jiri lands the big shot for a third-round TKO. Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 49.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Underdog credit earned: 0.00 — credit is earned only on a correct call. Hear it — 29:17 View this fight →
	Favourite call, market price 68.0%. Murzakanov · KO/TKO · R2	Costa · KO/TKO R3	Miss	Not applicable — the winner call missed	Not applicable — the winner call missed
Costa is unreliable moving up in weight; Murzakanov's power gets a second-round KO. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 68.0% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. Hear it — 22:44
	Favourite call, market price 51.5%. Hokit · KO/TKO · R1	Hokit · Dec	Hit	Miss	Miss
Blaydes is on the downfall and Hokit is a nasty matchup; a first-round TKO. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 51.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. Hear it — 19:28 View this fight →
	Favourite call, market price 60.5%. Reyes · KO/TKO · R1	Reyes · Dec	Hit	Miss	Miss
Reyes is a level above and finds Walker's chin first for a first-round KO. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 60.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. Hear it — 24:39
	Favourite call, market price 53.0%. Swanson · KO/TKO · R3	Swanson · KO/TKO R1	Hit	Hit	Miss
Swanson's boxing and experience win a war, finishing Landwehr in the third. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 53.0% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. Hear it — 18:09

UFC Seattle

Mar 28, 2026 · Seattle, Washington

Event scorecard

Winner 2 3
Method 2
Round 2
Underdog 1

Fight	Pick	Actual	Winner	Method	Round
	Favourite call, market price 56.5%. Adesanya · Dec	Pyfer · KO/TKO R2	Miss	Not applicable — the winner call missed	Not applicable — the winner call missed
Adesanya's striking is light-years ahead even past prime; the safe pick is a decision. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 56.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. Hear it — 33:20 View this fight →
	Favourite call, market price 63.5%. Barber · Dec	Grasso · KO/TKO R1	Miss	Not applicable — the winner call missed	Not applicable — the winner call missed
Barber is the more relentless wrestler and controls Grasso for a decision. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 63.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. Hear it — 30:27
	Favourite call, market price 88.5%. Chiesa · Sub · R1	Chiesa · Sub R1	Hit	Hit	Hit
Chiesa has submission momentum and takes down a washed Price for a first-round sub. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 88.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. Hear it — 22:22
	Favourite call, market price 74.5%. Douglas · KO/TKO · R1	Douglas · KO/TKO R1	Hit	Hit	Hit
Douglas's boxing and KO power find a hittable Erosa's chin early. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 74.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. Hear it — 19:49
	Underdog call, market price 36.5%. Nelson · KO/TKO · R1	McKinney · KO/TKO R1	Miss	Not applicable — the winner call missed	Not applicable — the winner call missed
Nelson's power exploits McKinney's glass chin once he survives the early onslaught. Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 36.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Underdog credit earned: 0.00 — credit is earned only on a correct call. Hear it — 24:08

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