Bonfim vs Sola — Lightweight · UFC Fight Night
Red corner
- 20-6-0
- Record
- 11-1-1
Blue corner
Expectations
- 0
- Analyst picksAnalysts — blue corner unanimousAnalyst picksCounts all published analyst picks logged for this fight. A side label appears only when at least three picks are logged.
- 7
Full Tale of the Tape · +10 more stats · radar
- 20-6-0
- Record
- 11-1-1
- 2-3 last 5
- Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
- 3-1-1 last 5
- —
- StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
- —
- —
- Sig. strikes absorbed / minAbsorbed / minSignificant strikes absorbed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter takes for every minute of fight time. Lower is better — it means they get hit less often. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
- —
- —
- Striking defenseStrike def.Striking defenseThe percentage of opponents’ significant strikes that do not land — strikes slipped, blocked or evaded. Higher is better. Not the same as striking accuracy, which counts your own strikes that land. From UFC/FightMetric.
- —
- —
- Takedown defenseTD def.Takedown defenseThe percentage of opponents’ takedown attempts that are stuffed. Higher means harder to put on the mat. From UFC/FightMetric.
- —
- —
- Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
- —
- Brazil
- Nationality
- France
Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Numbers reflect records coming into fight night. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.
What to expect
Case for Bonfim
Bonfim is the more accomplished striker trying to stop a slide. 'Marreta' is a twenty-fight winner with crisp boxing and nine knockouts, but he has dropped three of his last five and badly needs a bounce-back. The pedigree still says he is the sharper technical striker in the matchup when he is on.
Case for Sola
Sola is the karate stylist with awkward angles and his own point to prove. The Frenchman is 11-1-1 and stopped Rhys McKee in the UFC before a decision loss to Mason Jones, and his kicking range and unorthodox footwork are a hard puzzle for a pressure boxer. If he keeps the fight at distance, he can out-point Bonfim.
What to Watch
- Boxing vs karate: Bonfim's pocket boxing against Sola's range kicking — who imposes their distance?
- Bonfim's slide: three losses in his last five — is the chin and the timing still reliable under fire?
- Sola's footwork: can he stay on the outside and avoid the exchanges where Bonfim's hands are sharpest?
- Stakes: both men are on the wrong side of .500 in their last five — the winner buys real breathing room, the loser slides toward must-win territory.
Analysts
Independent analyst picks — analysts, fighters and betting desks — on this fight: who they pick, how, and the exact moment they say it. Tap any clip to hear it.
2 of 7 see a finish — 2 by KO/TKO.
The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.
DFS By The Numbers Betting deskAnalyst called 32 of 47 DFS By The Numbers: picks Sola — KO/TKO · R3
Takes Sola's cardio and pressure to break Bonfim down for a late knockout.
Track record: winner called in 32 of 47 resolved picks, 13 a perfect call.
AJ Betting deskAnalyst called 24 of 30 AJ: picks Sola — KO/TKO
Takes Sola as the longer, quicker and more durable striker, expecting him to break Bonfim down and finish him with strikes.
Track record: winner called in 24 of 30 resolved picks, 15 a perfect call.
Michael Chiesa AnalystFighter track record building Michael Chiesa: picks Sola — to win
Names Sola as his preliminary-card pick without a method call.
Track record builds as we verify their past calls.
JakeGerberMMA Analyst called 8 of 10 JakeGerberMMA: picks Sola — to win
Names Axel Sola as the full-card pick in this preview.
Track record: winner called in 8 of 10 resolved picks.
HopperoMMA Analyst called 20 of 33 HopperoMMA: picks Sola — to win
Names Axel Sola as the full-card pick in this preview.
Track record: winner called in 20 of 33 resolved picks, 8 a perfect call.
Bedtime MMA Analyst called 36 of 58 Bedtime MMA: picks Sola — to win
Names Axel Sola as the full-card pick in this preview.
Track record: winner called in 36 of 58 resolved picks, 18 a perfect call.
We Want Picks Betting desk called 22 of 37 We Want Picks: picks Sola — to win
Names Axel Sola as the full-card pick in this preview.
Track record: winner called in 22 of 37 resolved picks.
Fan Picks
Make your Pick
Choose the winner before the event begins. Your Pick is private unless you later choose to share it.
Loading Pick availability…
Videos
Signature clips and the lead-up to this fight.
Before the fight · 1 clip
Fighters
Reader thread
Reader takes
Public fan takes, kept separate from FightCardIQ analysis and held to moderation.
Comments are currently closed while we finish moderation and privacy controls.