UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov  25 Jul 2026 · Etihad Arena, Abu Dhabi, AE

Axel Sola defeats Ismael Bonfim by Submission

Loss Ismael Bonfim 20-7-0
Win Axel Sola 12-1-1
Submission · D’Arce choke

Round 1 · 4:44

Bonfim vs Sola — Lightweight · UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov

Predictions summary

What happened

The result, the defining moments, and what the verdict means.

Bonfim pressed forward early, and Sola landed elbows that sent him to the canvas.

Sola landed short shots and looked for submissions from the top.

He locked the D’Arce choke for the tap at 4:44 of the first.

Pre-fight analysis — how we saw it going in

Case for Bonfim

Bonfim is the more accomplished striker trying to stop a slide. 'Marreta' is a twenty-fight winner with crisp boxing and nine knockouts, but he has dropped three of his last five and badly needs a bounce-back. The pedigree still says he is the sharper technical striker in the matchup when he is on.

Case for Sola

Sola is the karate stylist with awkward angles and his own point to prove. The Frenchman is 11-1-1 and stopped Rhys McKee in the UFC before a decision loss to Mason Jones, and his kicking range and unorthodox footwork are a hard puzzle for a pressure boxer. If he keeps the fight at distance, he can out-point Bonfim.

What We Were Watching For

  • Boxing vs karate: Bonfim's pocket boxing against Sola's range kicking — who imposes their distance?
  • Bonfim's slide: three losses in his last five — is the chin and the timing still reliable under fire?
  • Sola's footwork: can he stay on the outside and avoid the exchanges where Bonfim's hands are sharpest?
  • Stakes: both men are on the wrong side of .500 in their last five — the winner buys real breathing room, the loser slides toward must-win territory.
Records & career stats
Bonfim vs Sola
Bonfim Sola
  1. OutputSig. strikes landed / min 5.10 4.55
  2. Striking def.Striking defense 63% 61%
  3. DurabilitySig. strikes absorbed / min 3.96 4.52
  4. Takedown def.Takedown defense 77% 67%
  5. FinishingFinish rate 65% 64%
20-6-0
Record
11-1-1
1-4 last 5
Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
3-1-1 last 5
Brazil
Nationality
France
30
Age
28
5′8″173 cm
Height — Sola leads
5′11″180 cm
72″182 cm
Reach — Sola leads
74″188 cm
Not published
StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
—
65%
Finish rateFinish %Finish rateThe share of a fighter’s wins that ended inside the distance — by KO/TKO or submission — rather than going to the judges’ scorecards. Higher means more finishes.
64%
9
Wins by KO/TKOKO wins — Bonfim leads
7
4
Wins by submissionSub wins — Bonfim leads
2
5.10
Sig. strikes landed / minStr / min — Bonfim leadsSignificant strikes landed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter lands for every minute of fight time — a read on striking output and pace. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
4.55
3.96
Sig. strikes absorbed / minAbs / min — Bonfim leadsSignificant strikes absorbed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter takes for every minute of fight time. Lower is better — it means they get hit less often. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
4.52
63%
Striking defenseStrike def.Striking defenseThe percentage of opponents’ significant strikes that do not land — strikes slipped, blocked or evaded. Higher is better. Not the same as striking accuracy, which counts your own strikes that land. From UFC/FightMetric.
61%
77%
Takedown defenseTD def. — Bonfim leadsTakedown defenseThe percentage of opponents’ takedown attempts that are stuffed. Higher means harder to put on the mat. From UFC/FightMetric.
67%
08:46
Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
08:22

Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Record is as of fight night; career stats, recent form and win totals are the latest on file and may include this fight. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.

Videos

Outcome footage, post-fight coverage, and the pre-fight lead-up.

Before the fight (2)

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Who Called It?

How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.

FIGHT//AI
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Ismael Bonfim

Fight result: Axel Sola · Submission

FIGHT//AI’s replay record preserves its original live winner selection: Ismael Bonfim.

Track record: winner called in 49 of 153 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 32.0% (49 hit, 104 miss, across 153 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 50.0% (1 hit, 1 miss, across 2 method-scored calls on 153 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 20.0% (20 hit, 80 miss, across 100 underdog calls on 153 resolved calls).

View full track record (153 calls)
Bedtime MMA
Hear it — 16:25 Bedtime MMA on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Axel Sola

Fight result: Axel Sola · Submission

Names Axel Sola as the full-card pick in this preview.

“skin tone or whatever. Anyway, I'm going to move on. I'm going to pick Axel Solar”

Track record: winner called in 132 of 185 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 71.4% (132 hit, 53 miss, across 185 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 61.9% (60 hit, 37 miss, across 97 method-scored calls on 185 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 40.7% (11 hit, 16 miss, across 27 round-scored calls on 185 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 48.7% (19 hit, 20 miss, across 39 underdog calls on 185 resolved calls).

View full track record (185 calls)
FightIQ
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Axel Sola · Dec

Fight result: Axel Sola · Submission

FightIQ's public record lists Axel Sola as its pick over Ismael Bonfim.

Track record: winner called in 159 of 227 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 70.0% (159 hit, 68 miss, across 227 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 39.9% (59 hit, 89 miss, across 148 method-scored calls on 227 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 55.0% (11 hit, 9 miss, across 20 underdog calls on 227 resolved calls).

View full track record (227 calls)
Michael Chiesa
Hear it — 1:59 Michael Chiesa on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Axel Sola

Fight result: Axel Sola · Submission

Names Sola as his preliminary-card pick without a method call.

“Bonfam. That's a great fight as well. I'm going with the Frenchman. Taking”

Track record: winner called in 50 of 75 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 66.7% (50 hit, 25 miss, across 75 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 40.0% (2 hit, 3 miss, across 5 method-scored calls on 75 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 16.7% (2 hit, 10 miss, across 12 underdog calls on 75 resolved calls).

View full track record (75 calls)
AJ Devito
Hear it — 18:50 AJ Devito on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Axel Sola · KO/TKO

Fight result: Axel Sola · Submission

Takes Sola as the longer, quicker and more durable striker, expecting him to break Bonfim down and finish him with strikes.

“I'm going Axel Solo KO.”

Track record: winner called in 175 of 264 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 66.3% (175 hit, 89 miss, across 264 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 58.7% (61 hit, 43 miss, across 104 method-scored calls on 264 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 77.8% (7 hit, 2 miss, across 9 round-scored calls on 264 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 36.4% (12 hit, 21 miss, across 33 underdog calls on 264 resolved calls).

View full track record (264 calls)
JakeGerberMMA
Hear it — 23:47 JakeGerberMMA on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Axel Sola

Fight result: Axel Sola · Submission

Names Axel Sola as the full-card pick in this preview.

“Give me Axel Sola to go out here and melt Ishmael Bonfam in round. I'll say”

Track record: winner called in 101 of 154 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 65.6% (101 hit, 53 miss, across 154 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 60.0% (39 hit, 26 miss, across 65 method-scored calls on 154 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 35.7% (5 hit, 9 miss, across 14 round-scored calls on 154 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (4 hit, 8 miss, across 12 underdog calls on 154 resolved calls).

View full track record (154 calls)
DFS By The Numbers
Hear it — 9:50 DFS By The Numbers on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Axel Sola · KO/TKO · Round 3

Fight result: Axel Sola · Submission

Takes Sola's cardio and pressure to break Bonfim down for a late knockout.

“I'm taking Axel Solola to give Bonfam his seventh finish loss. I'll take Axel Solo to win this fight by third round knockout.”

Track record: winner called in 112 of 173 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 64.7% (112 hit, 61 miss, across 173 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 61.0% (61 hit, 39 miss, across 100 method-scored calls on 173 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 38.3% (18 hit, 29 miss, across 47 round-scored calls on 173 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 36.4% (8 hit, 14 miss, across 22 underdog calls on 173 resolved calls).

View full track record (173 calls)
We Want Picks
Hear it — 17:32 We Want Picks on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Axel Sola

Fight result: Axel Sola · Submission

Names Axel Sola as the full-card pick in this preview.

“Bonfine can be dangerous. Sol's tough as hell. Axel Solah easy clean pick for me.”

Track record: winner called in 93 of 145 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 64.1% (93 hit, 52 miss, across 145 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 40.0% (2 hit, 3 miss, across 5 method-scored calls on 145 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Underdog Accuracy 34.5% (10 hit, 19 miss, across 29 underdog calls on 145 resolved calls).

View full track record (145 calls)
HopperMMA
Hear it — 6:32 HopperMMA on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Axel Sola

Fight result: Axel Sola · Submission

Names Axel Sola as the full-card pick in this preview.

“years. Um, I'm going to go with Axel Solo to win this one. Yeah, this should be a pretty straightforward win in my opinion to Axel Solo. He just lost to Mason Jones who's an absolute warrior,”

Track record: winner called in 92 of 148 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 62.2% (92 hit, 56 miss, across 148 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 60.8% (45 hit, 29 miss, across 74 method-scored calls on 148 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 48.8% (20 hit, 21 miss, across 41 round-scored calls on 148 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 26.9% (7 hit, 19 miss, across 26 underdog calls on 148 resolved calls).

View full track record (148 calls)

Analyst picks: Bedtime MMA Hit; FightIQ Hit; Michael Chiesa Hit; AJ Devito Hit; JakeGerberMMA Hit; DFS By The Numbers Hit; We Want Picks Hit; HopperMMA Hit; FIGHT//AI Miss.

8 of 9 nailed it.

Chart: selected analyst picks, not a win probability. Pill badge: Winner hit rate (total scored picks before this event).

The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.

AI Predictions

This fight is settled. Eligible pre-fight AI forecasts load when this page is online.

Market Odds

No current consensus line is saved on this page.

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