Vagaev vs Izagakhmaev — Welterweight · UFC Fight Night
- Wins
- 24
- Losses
- 4
- Draws
- 0
Red corner
- 24-4-0
- Record
- 22-3-0
- Not published
- Reach
- 189 cm
- Not published
- Sig. strikes landed / minStrikes / minSignificant strikes landed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter lands for every minute of fight time — a read on striking output and pace. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
- 1.33
- Wins
- 22
- Losses
- 3
- Draws
- 0
Blue corner
Expectations
- 6
- Analyst picksAnalysts — red corner favoredAnalyst picksCounts all published analyst picks logged for this fight. A side label appears only when at least three picks are logged.
- 2
Full Tale of the Tape · +11 more stats · radar
- 24-4-0
- Record
- 22-3-0
- 4-1 last 5
- Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
- 4-1 last 5
- —
- StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
- —
- Not published
- Sig. strikes absorbed / minAbsorbed / minSignificant strikes absorbed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter takes for every minute of fight time. Lower is better — it means they get hit less often. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
- 1.73
- Not published
- Striking defenseStrike def.Striking defenseThe percentage of opponents’ significant strikes that do not land — strikes slipped, blocked or evaded. Higher is better. Not the same as striking accuracy, which counts your own strikes that land. From UFC/FightMetric.
- 59%
- Not published
- Takedown defenseTD def.Takedown defenseThe percentage of opponents’ takedown attempts that are stuffed. Higher means harder to put on the mat. From UFC/FightMetric.
- 100%
- Not published
- Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
- 15:00
- Russia
- Nationality
- Russia
- Akhmat Fight Club
- Team
- Nurmagomedov School
Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Numbers reflect records coming into fight night. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.
What to expect
Case for Vagaev
Vagaev is a pro since 2012 with a 24-4 record, including wins over Michel Pereira, Luiz Dutra Jr., Michel Prazeres and Albert Tumenov, according to the UFC preview. His most recent win was over Tumenov in February 2025, so the immediate question is how the layoff affects his first UFC start.
Case for Izagakhmaev
Izagakhmaev enters at 22-3 after a split-decision loss to Nicolas Dalby in his UFC debut last November. The UFC preview says that result ended a five-fight winning streak; avoiding an 0-2 UFC start gives the bout a direct urgency for the sophomore.
What to Watch
- Vagaev's first UFC minutes after his February 2025 win and subsequent layoff.
- Whether Izagakhmaev can turn a competitive UFC debut loss into a first promotion win.
- How two experienced welterweights approach the early exchanges.
- Whether Vagaev's long decision-heavy record or Izagakhmaev's recent UFC experience carries the fight.
Analysts
Independent analyst picks — analysts, fighters and betting desks — on this fight: who they pick, how, and the exact moment they say it. Tap any clip to hear it.
All 8 see it go the distance.
The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.
Ben Duffy Analyst called 9 of 10 Ben Duffy: picks Vagaev — Decision
Rates Vagaev as better overall, especially for control on the ground, and expects a dominant decision.
Track record: winner called in 9 of 10 resolved picks, 6 a perfect call.
Michael Chiesa AnalystFighter track record building Michael Chiesa: picks Vagaev — Decision
Favors Vagaev's deeper game and more reliable gas tank over Izagakhmaev after the latter faded in a previous long-layoff return.
Track record builds as we verify their past calls.
JakeGerberMMA Analyst called 8 of 10 JakeGerberMMA: picks Vagaev — to win
Names Abubakar Vagaev as the full-card pick in this preview.
Track record: winner called in 8 of 10 resolved picks.
HopperoMMA Analyst called 20 of 33 HopperoMMA: picks Vagaev — to win
Names Abubakar Vagaev as the full-card pick in this preview.
Track record: winner called in 20 of 33 resolved picks, 8 a perfect call.
Bedtime MMA Analyst called 36 of 58 Bedtime MMA: picks Vagaev — to win
Names Abubakar Vagaev as the full-card pick in this preview.
Track record: winner called in 36 of 58 resolved picks, 18 a perfect call.
We Want Picks Betting desk called 22 of 37 We Want Picks: picks Vagaev — to win
Names Abubakar Vagaev as the full-card pick in this preview.
Track record: winner called in 22 of 37 resolved picks.
Keith Shillan Analyst called 8 of 10 Keith Shillan: picks Izagakhmaev — Decision
Takes Izagakhmaev as the more proven fighter against higher-level opposition and does not weigh the Nicolas Dalby loss heavily.
Track record: winner called in 8 of 10 resolved picks, 6 a perfect call.
AJ Betting deskAnalyst called 24 of 30 AJ: picks Izagakhmaev — Decision
Narrowly favors Izagakhmaev in a competitive fight, citing his craft and stronger back takes despite Vagaev's boxing combinations.
Track record: winner called in 24 of 30 resolved picks, 15 a perfect call.
Fan Picks
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