UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov
Magomed Zaynukov defeats Damian Rzepecki by unanimous decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Zaynukov vs Rzepecki — Lightweight · UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov
Predictions summary
What happened
The result, the defining moments, and what the verdict means.
A first-round eye poke paused the contest.
Zaynukov controlled the action with the depth of his striking offence.
Zaynukov won the unanimous decision.
- Official UFC resultsUFC Abu Dhabi — Main Card Results
Pre-fight analysis — how we saw it going in
Case for Zaynukov
Zaynukov brings the Dagestani template to an unbeaten record. Training out of the Nurmagomedov school, 'Wild Chanco' is 8-0 with a Muay Thai base bolted onto the grappling pressure that region has made famous, and he has already been tested internationally at UAE Warriors and on the Contender Series. He is the more proven of the two perfect records.
Case for Rzepecki
Rzepecki is a 10-0 finisher making the UFC walk for the first time. 'The Butcher' has stopped nine of ten opponents — a 90% finish rate split between knockouts and submissions — carving through Poland's FEN scene. He is the bigger unknown and a genuine finishing threat; the question is whether that regional stoppage rate translates the moment the level jumps.
What We Were Watching For
- Two zeros: one of these unbeaten records ends tonight — who handles the first real adversity of their career?
- Wrestling vs finishing: Zaynukov's grappling pressure against Rzepecki's stoppage power — who dictates where the fight happens?
- The debut jump: Rzepecki has never fought on this stage — does UFC-level competition dull a regional finishing record?
- Zaynukov's decisions: three of his eight wins went the distance — can he finish, or does he need to grind rounds?
Records & career stats
- 10.30 1.07
- 62% 44%
- 2.93 4.93
- 86% 67%
- 63% 90%
- 8-0-0
- Record
- 10-0-0
- 5-0 last 5
- Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
- —
- Russia
- Nationality
- Poland
- 31
- Age
- 24
- Orthodox
- StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
- Orthodox
- 15:00
- Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
- 15:00
- Nurmagomedov School
- Team
- Top Fit Center Piotrków Trybunalski
Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Record is as of fight night; career stats, recent form and win totals are the latest on file and may include this fight. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.
Comments
Who Called It?
How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.
Current pick evidence
Picked: Magomed Zaynukov · KO/TKO
Fight result: Magomed Zaynukov · Decision
FightIQ's public record lists Magomed Zaynukov as its pick over Damian Rzepecki.
Track record: winner called in 159 of 227 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 70.0% (159 hit, 68 miss, across 227 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 39.9% (59 hit, 89 miss, across 148 method-scored calls on 227 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 55.0% (11 hit, 9 miss, across 20 underdog calls on 227 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 70.0% 159 68
- Method Accuracy 39.9% 59 89
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 55.0% 11 9
Current pick evidence
Picked: Magomed Zaynukov
Fight result: Magomed Zaynukov · Decision
Expects Zaynukov's output and well-rounded camp experience to overwhelm Rzepecki and find a finish inside two rounds, without naming a specific method or round.
“biggest difference maker in this fight. And I will go out on a limb and say Wild”
Track record: winner called in 50 of 75 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 66.7% (50 hit, 25 miss, across 75 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 40.0% (2 hit, 3 miss, across 5 method-scored calls on 75 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 16.7% (2 hit, 10 miss, across 12 underdog calls on 75 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 66.7% 50 25
- Method Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 16.7% 2 10
Current pick evidence
Picked: Magomed Zaynukov
Fight result: Magomed Zaynukov · Decision
Names Magomed Zaynukov as the full-card pick in this preview.
“there rooting for the guy. So I am going to pick Hey brother this guy John Pork I”
Track record: winner called in 101 of 154 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 65.6% (101 hit, 53 miss, across 154 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 60.0% (39 hit, 26 miss, across 65 method-scored calls on 154 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 35.7% (5 hit, 9 miss, across 14 round-scored calls on 154 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (4 hit, 8 miss, across 12 underdog calls on 154 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 65.6% 101 53
- Method Accuracy 60.0% 39 26
- Round Accuracy 35.7% 5 9
- Underdog Accuracy 33.3% 4 8
Current pick evidence
Picked: Magomed Zaynukov · Dec
Fight result: Magomed Zaynukov · Decision
Backs Zaynukov's broader striking and grappling tools to carry a decision over the durable Rzepecki.
“the more skilled fighter in general. So, I like Maggman Zionov, aka Chonko, aka”
Track record: winner called in 112 of 173 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 64.7% (112 hit, 61 miss, across 173 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 61.0% (61 hit, 39 miss, across 100 method-scored calls on 173 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 38.3% (18 hit, 29 miss, across 47 round-scored calls on 173 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 36.4% (8 hit, 14 miss, across 22 underdog calls on 173 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 64.7% 112 61
- Method Accuracy 61.0% 61 39
- Round Accuracy 38.3% 18 29
- Underdog Accuracy 36.4% 8 14
Current pick evidence
Picked: Magomed Zaynukov
Fight result: Magomed Zaynukov · Decision
Names Magomed Zaynukov as the full-card pick in this preview.
“takedown after his head is snapped back a few times. John Pork's the pick here.”
Track record: winner called in 93 of 145 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 64.1% (93 hit, 52 miss, across 145 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 40.0% (2 hit, 3 miss, across 5 method-scored calls on 145 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Underdog Accuracy 34.5% (10 hit, 19 miss, across 29 underdog calls on 145 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 64.1% 93 52
- Method Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
- Round AccuracyNamed rounds — none on a correct call yet
- Underdog Accuracy 34.5% 10 19
Current pick evidence
Picked: Magomed Zaynukov · Dec
Fight result: Magomed Zaynukov · Decision
MMA Mania's UFC Abu Dhabi X-Factor preview has Andrew Richardson picking Magomed Zaynukov by decision.
Track record: winner called in 37 of 66 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 56.1% (37 hit, 29 miss, across 66 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 73.0% (27 hit, 10 miss, across 37 method-scored calls on 66 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Underdog Accuracy 10.0% (1 hit, 9 miss, across 10 underdog calls on 66 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 56.1% 37 29
- Method Accuracy 73.0% 27 10
- Round AccuracyNamed rounds — none on a correct call yet
- Underdog Accuracy 10.0% 1 9
Current pick evidence
Picked: Damian Rzepecki
Fight result: Magomed Zaynukov · Decision
FIGHT//AI’s replay record preserves its original live winner selection: Damian Rzepecki.
Track record: winner called in 49 of 153 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 32.0% (49 hit, 104 miss, across 153 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 50.0% (1 hit, 1 miss, across 2 method-scored calls on 153 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 20.0% (20 hit, 80 miss, across 100 underdog calls on 153 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 32.0% 49 104
- Method Accuracy 50.0% 1 1
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 20.0% 20 80
Analyst picks: FightIQ Hit; Michael Chiesa Hit; JakeGerberMMA Hit; DFS By The Numbers Hit; We Want Picks Hit; Andrew Richardson Hit; FIGHT//AI Miss.
6 of 7 nailed it.
Chart: selected analyst picks, not a win probability. Pill badge: Winner hit rate (total scored picks before this event).
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The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.
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