Ponzinibbio vs Patterson — Welterweight · UFC Fight Night
- Wins
- 30
- Losses
- 9
- Draws
- 0
Red corner
- 30-9-0
- Record
- 14-3-1
Blue corner
Expectations
- 0
- Analyst picksAnalysts — blue corner unanimousAnalyst picksCounts all published analyst picks logged for this fight. A side label appears only when at least three picks are logged.
- 7
Full Tale of the Tape · +11 more stats · radar
- 30-9-0
- Record
- 14-3-1
- 1-4 last 5
- Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
- 4-1 last 5
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- StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
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- Sig. strikes absorbed / minAbsorbed / minSignificant strikes absorbed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter takes for every minute of fight time. Lower is better — it means they get hit less often. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
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- Striking defenseStrike def.Striking defenseThe percentage of opponents’ significant strikes that do not land — strikes slipped, blocked or evaded. Higher is better. Not the same as striking accuracy, which counts your own strikes that land. From UFC/FightMetric.
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- Takedown defenseTD def.Takedown defenseThe percentage of opponents’ takedown attempts that are stuffed. Higher means harder to put on the mat. From UFC/FightMetric.
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- Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
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- Argentina
- Nationality
- England
- American Top Team
- Team
- Team Crossface
Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Numbers reflect records coming into fight night. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.
What to expect
Case for Ponzinibbio
Ponzinibbio makes his 21st UFC appearance in his 13th year with the promotion. The UFC preview says he returns after a third-round stoppage loss to Daniel Rodriguez and has gone 2-5 in his last seven, although three of those defeats were split decisions.
Case for Patterson
Patterson is the rangy British opponent looking to rebound from a low-output loss to Michael Page in London. The UFC preview says that setback ended a four-fight run of success since he moved to welterweight, giving him a clear recent baseline to rediscover.
What to Watch
- Whether Ponzinibbio's long UFC experience helps him reset after the Rodriguez loss.
- Patterson's activity after the low-output Michael Page defeat.
- The range battle between the veteran and the taller-framed British welterweight.
- How either fighter responds if the bout becomes a close round-by-round decision.
Analysts
Independent analyst picks — analysts, fighters and betting desks — on this fight: who they pick, how, and the exact moment they say it. Tap any clip to hear it.
2 of 7 see a finish — 2 by KO/TKO.
The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.
DFS By The Numbers Betting deskAnalyst called 32 of 47 DFS By The Numbers: picks Patterson — KO/TKO · R1
Expects Patterson's power to catch the forward-moving Ponzinibbio for a first-round knockout.
Track record: winner called in 32 of 47 resolved picks, 13 a perfect call.
AJ Betting deskAnalyst called 24 of 30 AJ: picks Patterson — KO/TKO
Expects Patterson's reach, straight shots and power to exploit the aging Ponzinibbio's forward pressure for a knockout.
Track record: winner called in 24 of 30 resolved picks, 15 a perfect call.
Michael Chiesa AnalystFighter track record building Michael Chiesa: picks Patterson — to win
Names Patterson as his preliminary-card pick without a method call.
Track record builds as we verify their past calls.
JakeGerberMMA Analyst called 8 of 10 JakeGerberMMA: picks Patterson — to win
Names Sam Patterson as the full-card pick in this preview.
Track record: winner called in 8 of 10 resolved picks.
HopperoMMA Analyst called 20 of 33 HopperoMMA: picks Patterson — to win
Names Sam Patterson as the full-card pick in this preview.
Track record: winner called in 20 of 33 resolved picks, 8 a perfect call.
Bedtime MMA Analyst called 36 of 58 Bedtime MMA: picks Patterson — to win
Names Sam Patterson as the full-card pick in this preview.
Track record: winner called in 36 of 58 resolved picks, 18 a perfect call.
We Want Picks Betting desk called 22 of 37 We Want Picks: picks Patterson — to win
Names Sam Patterson as the full-card pick in this preview.
Track record: winner called in 22 of 37 resolved picks.
Fan Picks
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