UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov  25 Jul 2026 · Etihad Arena, Abu Dhabi, AE

Sam Patterson defeats Santiago Ponzinibbio by KO/TKO

Loss Santiago Ponzinibbio 30-10-0
Win Sam Patterson 15-3-1
KO/TKO · strikes

Round 2 · 3:06

Ponzinibbio vs Patterson — Welterweight · UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov

Predictions summary

What happened

The result, the defining moments, and what the verdict means.

Patterson settled into his range during the back half of round one.

He increased the pressure and damage in round two.

Patterson continued unloading after hurting Ponzinibbio until the stoppage.

Pre-fight analysis — how we saw it going in

Case for Ponzinibbio

Ponzinibbio makes his 21st UFC appearance in his 13th year with the promotion. The UFC preview says he returns after a third-round stoppage loss to Daniel Rodriguez and has gone 2-5 in his last seven, although three of those defeats were split decisions.

Case for Patterson

Patterson is the rangy British opponent looking to rebound from a low-output loss to Michael Page in London. The UFC preview says that setback ended a four-fight run of success since he moved to welterweight, giving him a clear recent baseline to rediscover.

What We Were Watching For

  • Whether Ponzinibbio's long UFC experience helps him reset after the Rodriguez loss.
  • Patterson's activity after the low-output Michael Page defeat.
  • The range battle between the veteran and the taller-framed British welterweight.
  • How either fighter responds if the bout becomes a close round-by-round decision.
Records & career stats
Ponzinibbio vs Patterson
Ponzinibbio Patterson
  1. OutputSig. strikes landed / min 4.67 3.58
  2. Striking def.Striking defense 61% 59%
  3. DurabilitySig. strikes absorbed / min 4.79 2.82
  4. Takedown def.Takedown defense 71% 50%
  5. FinishingFinish rate 77% 93%
30-9-0
Record
14-3-1
1-4 last 5
Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
4-1 last 5
Argentina
Nationality
England
39
Age
30
6′0″183 cm
Height — Patterson leads
6′3″191 cm
73″185 cm
Reach — Patterson leads
79″200 cm
—
StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
—
77%
Finish rateFinish % — Patterson leadsFinish rateThe share of a fighter’s wins that ended inside the distance — by KO/TKO or submission — rather than going to the judges’ scorecards. Higher means more finishes.
93%
17
Wins by KO/TKOKO wins — Ponzinibbio leads
7
6
Wins by submissionSub wins — Patterson leads
7
4.67
Sig. strikes landed / minStr / min — Ponzinibbio leadsSignificant strikes landed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter lands for every minute of fight time — a read on striking output and pace. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
3.58
4.79
Sig. strikes absorbed / minAbs / min — Patterson leadsSignificant strikes absorbed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter takes for every minute of fight time. Lower is better — it means they get hit less often. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
2.82
61%
Striking defenseStrike def.Striking defenseThe percentage of opponents’ significant strikes that do not land — strikes slipped, blocked or evaded. Higher is better. Not the same as striking accuracy, which counts your own strikes that land. From UFC/FightMetric.
59%
71%
Takedown defenseTD def. — Ponzinibbio leadsTakedown defenseThe percentage of opponents’ takedown attempts that are stuffed. Higher means harder to put on the mat. From UFC/FightMetric.
50%
11:11
Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
05:35
American Top Team ATT Coconut Creek, FL
Team
Team Crossface

Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Record is as of fight night; career stats, recent form and win totals are the latest on file and may include this fight. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.

Comments

Comments are currently closed while we finish moderation and privacy controls.

Who Called It?

How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.

FIGHT//AI
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Santiago Ponzinibbio

Fight result: Sam Patterson · KO/TKO

FIGHT//AI’s replay record preserves its original live winner selection: Santiago Ponzinibbio.

Track record: winner called in 49 of 153 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 32.0% (49 hit, 104 miss, across 153 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 50.0% (1 hit, 1 miss, across 2 method-scored calls on 153 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 20.0% (20 hit, 80 miss, across 100 underdog calls on 153 resolved calls).

View full track record (153 calls)
Bedtime MMA
Hear it — 7:01 Bedtime MMA on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Sam Patterson

Fight result: Sam Patterson · KO/TKO

Names Sam Patterson as the full-card pick in this preview.

“getting the W in this one. We're going to be picking Sam Patterson. I'm going”

Track record: winner called in 132 of 185 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 71.4% (132 hit, 53 miss, across 185 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 61.9% (60 hit, 37 miss, across 97 method-scored calls on 185 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 40.7% (11 hit, 16 miss, across 27 round-scored calls on 185 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 48.7% (19 hit, 20 miss, across 39 underdog calls on 185 resolved calls).

View full track record (185 calls)
FightIQ
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Sam Patterson · KO/TKO

Fight result: Sam Patterson · KO/TKO

FightIQ's public record lists Sam Patterson as its pick over Santiago Ponzinibbio.

Track record: winner called in 159 of 227 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 70.0% (159 hit, 68 miss, across 227 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 39.9% (59 hit, 89 miss, across 148 method-scored calls on 227 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 55.0% (11 hit, 9 miss, across 20 underdog calls on 227 resolved calls).

View full track record (227 calls)
Michael Chiesa
Hear it — 2:03 Michael Chiesa on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Sam Patterson

Fight result: Sam Patterson · KO/TKO

Names Patterson as his preliminary-card pick without a method call.

“Axel Solah over Ishmael Bonfam. Next up, Sam Patterson versus Santiago Ponibio.”

Track record: winner called in 50 of 75 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 66.7% (50 hit, 25 miss, across 75 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 40.0% (2 hit, 3 miss, across 5 method-scored calls on 75 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 16.7% (2 hit, 10 miss, across 12 underdog calls on 75 resolved calls).

View full track record (75 calls)
AJ Devito
Hear it — 23:32 AJ Devito on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Sam Patterson · KO/TKO

Fight result: Sam Patterson · KO/TKO

Expects Patterson's reach, straight shots and power to exploit the aging Ponzinibbio's forward pressure for a knockout.

“Sam Patterson not only to win, but I'm going to pick him by knockout win.”

Track record: winner called in 175 of 264 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 66.3% (175 hit, 89 miss, across 264 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 58.7% (61 hit, 43 miss, across 104 method-scored calls on 264 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 77.8% (7 hit, 2 miss, across 9 round-scored calls on 264 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 36.4% (12 hit, 21 miss, across 33 underdog calls on 264 resolved calls).

View full track record (264 calls)
JakeGerberMMA
Hear it — 29:00 JakeGerberMMA on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Sam Patterson

Fight result: Sam Patterson · KO/TKO

Names Sam Patterson as the full-card pick in this preview.

“But unfortunately, I like Ponzi, but I got to pick against him here against a”

Track record: winner called in 101 of 154 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 65.6% (101 hit, 53 miss, across 154 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 60.0% (39 hit, 26 miss, across 65 method-scored calls on 154 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 35.7% (5 hit, 9 miss, across 14 round-scored calls on 154 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (4 hit, 8 miss, across 12 underdog calls on 154 resolved calls).

View full track record (154 calls)
DFS By The Numbers
Hear it — 11:48 DFS By The Numbers on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Sam Patterson · KO/TKO · Round 1

Fight result: Sam Patterson · KO/TKO

Expects Patterson's power to catch the forward-moving Ponzinibbio for a first-round knockout.

“getting finished in the first round. So, give me Sam Patterson to win. I'll take”

Track record: winner called in 112 of 173 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 64.7% (112 hit, 61 miss, across 173 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 61.0% (61 hit, 39 miss, across 100 method-scored calls on 173 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 38.3% (18 hit, 29 miss, across 47 round-scored calls on 173 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 36.4% (8 hit, 14 miss, across 22 underdog calls on 173 resolved calls).

View full track record (173 calls)
HopperMMA
Hear it — 8:31 HopperMMA on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Sam Patterson

Fight result: Sam Patterson · KO/TKO

Names Sam Patterson as the full-card pick in this preview.

“hasn't faced anybody good so far. I'm going to go with Sam Patterson to”

Track record: winner called in 92 of 148 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 62.2% (92 hit, 56 miss, across 148 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 60.8% (45 hit, 29 miss, across 74 method-scored calls on 148 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 48.8% (20 hit, 21 miss, across 41 round-scored calls on 148 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 26.9% (7 hit, 19 miss, across 26 underdog calls on 148 resolved calls).

View full track record (148 calls)

Analyst picks: Bedtime MMA Hit; FightIQ Hit; Michael Chiesa Hit; AJ Devito Hit; JakeGerberMMA Hit; DFS By The Numbers Hit; HopperMMA Hit; FIGHT//AI Miss.

7 of 8 nailed it.

Chart: selected analyst picks, not a win probability. Pill badge: Winner hit rate (total scored picks before this event).

The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.

AI Predictions

This fight is settled. Eligible pre-fight AI forecasts load when this page is online.

Market Odds

No current consensus line is saved on this page.

Not betting advice · 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-MY-RESET

Independent fan-made fight recap. Not affiliated with, endorsed by, or sponsored by the UFC or any other MMA promotion. Analysis is editorial opinion, not betting advice. Fighter names and records are used for commentary. Image credits · Methodology · Privacy · Terms.