Davis vs Aliev — Lightweight · UFC Fight Night
Red corner
- 12-3-0
- Record
- 11-0-0
- Not published
- Sig. strikes landed / minStrikes / minSignificant strikes landed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter lands for every minute of fight time — a read on striking output and pace. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
- 2.72
Blue corner
Expectations
- 3
- Analyst picksAnalysts — blue corner favoredAnalyst picksCounts all published analyst picks logged for this fight. A side label appears only when at least three picks are logged.
- 4
Full Tale of the Tape · +11 more stats · radar
- 12-3-0
- Record
- 11-0-0
- 4-1 last 5
- Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
- 5-0 last 5
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- StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
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- —
- Sig. strikes absorbed / minAbsorbed / minSignificant strikes absorbed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter takes for every minute of fight time. Lower is better — it means they get hit less often. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
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- Striking defenseStrike def.Striking defenseThe percentage of opponents’ significant strikes that do not land — strikes slipped, blocked or evaded. Higher is better. Not the same as striking accuracy, which counts your own strikes that land. From UFC/FightMetric.
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- Takedown defenseTD def.Takedown defenseThe percentage of opponents’ takedown attempts that are stuffed. Higher means harder to put on the mat. From UFC/FightMetric.
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- Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
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- United States
- Nationality
- Tajikistan
- Fusion X-Cel
- Team
- Kaizen MMA
Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Numbers reflect records coming into fight night. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.
What to expect
Case for Davis
Davis is the proven UFC lightweight in the matchup. The UFC preview credits him with a 5-1 run at 155 pounds, three finishes and a Fight of the Night bonus with Mason Jones, with Fares Ziam the only defeat in that stretch.
Case for Aliev
Aliev remains unbeaten through three UFC starts after his strong Contender Series showing. The same UFC preview frames this as a chance for him to regain momentum after a less active stretch, so a composed performance against a veteran would be a meaningful next step.
What to Watch
- Davis's UFC experience against an opponent who has won all three of his UFC starts.
- Whether Aliev can turn an unbeaten record into sustained momentum after limited activity.
- The pace Davis establishes early, given his proven lightweight run.
- How the prospect handles a veteran whose recent UFC résumé includes finishes and a Fight of the Night.
Analysts
Independent analyst picks — analysts, fighters and betting desks — on this fight: who they pick, how, and the exact moment they say it. Tap any clip to hear it.
All 7 see it go the distance.
The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.
Michael Chiesa AnalystFighter track record building Michael Chiesa: picks Davis — to win
Backs Davis as the more technically complete fighter if he stays mobile and keeps Aliev's grappling from dictating the bout.
Track record builds as we verify their past calls.
JakeGerberMMA Analyst called 8 of 10 JakeGerberMMA: picks Davis — to win
Names Mike Davis as the full-card pick in this preview.
Track record: winner called in 8 of 10 resolved picks.
HopperoMMA Analyst called 20 of 33 HopperoMMA: picks Davis — to win
Names Mike Davis as the full-card pick in this preview.
Track record: winner called in 20 of 33 resolved picks, 8 a perfect call.
DFS By The Numbers Betting deskAnalyst called 32 of 47 DFS By The Numbers: picks Aliev — Decision
Takes Aliev to bank takedowns and control against Davis over three rounds.
Track record: winner called in 32 of 47 resolved picks, 13 a perfect call.
AJ Betting deskAnalyst called 24 of 30 AJ: picks Aliev — to win
Backs Davis as the more complete and proven fighter, expecting his striking and grappling to test Aliev beyond the latter's previous opposition.
Track record: winner called in 24 of 30 resolved picks, 15 a perfect call.
Bedtime MMA Analyst called 36 of 58 Bedtime MMA: picks Aliev — Decision
Picks Nurullo Aliev by decision, expecting his takedown-led control to edge a dangerous Mike Davis.
Track record: winner called in 36 of 58 resolved picks, 18 a perfect call.
We Want Picks Betting desk called 22 of 37 We Want Picks: picks Aliev — to win
Picks Nurullo Aliev for his controlling wrestling against Mike Davis.
Track record: winner called in 22 of 37 resolved picks.
Fan Picks
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