Magomed Ankalaev defeats Bogdan Guskov by KO/TKO
Ankalaev vs Guskov — Light Heavyweight · Ankalaev vs. Guskov
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More from this fight.
What happened
The result, the defining moments, and what the verdict means.
Ankalaev used rangy attacks and dealt with Guskov's return fire through the first three rounds.
He opened up further as the fight reached the championship rounds.
The fifth-round pressure produced the TKO finish at 2:41.
- Official UFC resultsUFC Abu Dhabi — Main Card Results
Who Called It?
How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.
Analyst picks: DFS By The Numbers Hit; Keith Shillan Hit; Ben Duffy Hit; AJ Hit; Michael Chiesa Hit; JakeGerberMMA Hit; HopperoMMA Hit; Bedtime MMA Hit; We Want Picks Hit.
All 9 analyst scorecardsWinner, method and round results9 scored · 9 hits · 0 misses
| Predicted by | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Historic market Favourite call, market price 82.5%. Ankalaev · Dec | Ankalaev · KO/TKO R5 | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
| Takes Ankalaev to use the cleaner, more defensively sound game and clinch/ground control over five rounds against short-notice Guskov. Track record: winner called in 77 of 112 resolved picks. | |||||
| Historic market Favourite call, market price 82.5%. Ankalaev · Sub · R3 | Ankalaev · KO/TKO R5 | Hit | Miss | Miss | |
| Sees Guskov as dangerous primarily through a puncher's chance, but expects Ankalaev's ground advantage to produce sustained top control before a third-round submission.
Track record: winner called in 11 of 15 resolved picks. | |||||
| Historic market Favourite call, market price 82.5%. Ankalaev · KO/TKO · R3 | Ankalaev · KO/TKO R5 | Hit | Hit | Miss | |
| Expects Guskov to wear down if Ankalaev wrestles, clinches and attacks the legs, leading to a third-round ground TKO. * Says a submission would be equally likely. Track record: winner called in 13 of 16 resolved picks. | |||||
| Historic market Favourite call, market price 82.5%. Ankalaev · Dec | Ankalaev · KO/TKO R5 | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
| Expects Ankalaev's technical edge and five-round experience to manage Guskov's early danger and win a decision. Track record: winner called in 75 of 109 resolved picks. | |||||
| Historic market Favourite call, market price 82.5%. Ankalaev · to win | Ankalaev · KO/TKO R5 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
| Favors Ankalaev's measured, well-rounded game and ability to work at range, in the clinch or on the mat against Guskov's short-notice challenge. Track record: winner called in 29 of 42 resolved picks. | |||||
| Historic market Favourite call, market price 82.5%. Ankalaev · to win | Ankalaev · KO/TKO R5 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
| Names Magomed Ankalaev as the full-card pick in this preview. Track record: winner called in 60 of 90 resolved picks. | |||||
| Historic market Favourite call, market price 82.5%. Ankalaev · to win | Ankalaev · KO/TKO R5 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
| Names Magomed Ankalaev as the full-card pick in this preview. Track record: winner called in 58 of 92 resolved picks. | |||||
| Historic market Favourite call, market price 82.5%. Ankalaev · to win | Ankalaev · KO/TKO R5 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
| Names Magomed Ankalaev as the full-card pick in this preview. Track record: winner called in 83 of 126 resolved picks. | |||||
| Historic market Favourite call, market price 82.5%. Ankalaev · to win | Ankalaev · KO/TKO R5 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
| Names Magomed Ankalaev as the full-card pick in this preview. Track record: winner called in 79 of 121 resolved picks. | |||||
9 of 9 nailed it.
The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.
Archive Pre-fight material — kept for transparency.
- 20-2-1
- Record
- 18-3-1
- 3-1-1 last 5
- Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
- 4-0-1 last 5
- Southpaw
- StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
- Orthodox
- —
- Finish rateFinish %Finish rateThe share of a fighter’s wins that ended inside the distance — by KO/TKO or submission — rather than going to the judges’ scorecards. Higher means more finishes.
- 100%
- —
- Sig. strikes absorbed / minAbsorbed / minSignificant strikes absorbed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter takes for every minute of fight time. Lower is better — it means they get hit less often. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
- 3.40
- —
- Striking defenseStrike def.Striking defenseThe percentage of opponents’ significant strikes that do not land — strikes slipped, blocked or evaded. Higher is better. Not the same as striking accuracy, which counts your own strikes that land. From UFC/FightMetric.
- 50%
- —
- Takedown defenseTD def.Takedown defenseThe percentage of opponents’ takedown attempts that are stuffed. Higher means harder to put on the mat. From UFC/FightMetric.
- 50%
- —
- Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
- 15:00
- Russia
- Nationality
- Uzbekistan
- Fight Club Akhmat / Xtreme Couture
- Team
- Gor MMA
Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Numbers reflect records coming into fight night. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.
Pre-fight analysis — how we saw it going in
Case for Ankalaev
Ankalaev wins by leaning on the wrestling and championship pace that made him champion. He out-pointed Alex Pereira over five rounds to take the title before the October rematch went wrong early, and his game — ten knockout wins stacked on top of a real wrestling threat and a grinding pace, with half his wins coming by decision — is built to drag Guskov into deep water he has never seen. Guskov has finished every one of his eighteen wins but has never been past the third round; five championship rounds against a grinder is a different exam.
Case for Guskov
Guskov wins if he lands before the fight hits the mat. 'Hitman' is 4-0-1 in his last five with a perfect finish rate — a first-round knockout of Nikita Krylov, a guillotine of Billy Elekana, and a majority draw with former champion Jan Blachowicz — and he stepped up for the injured Khalil Rountree Jr. with nothing to lose. Ankalaev was stopped by Pereira inside two minutes last time out; if Guskov's power finds that same opening early, the wrestling never matters.
What We Were Watching For
- Round one: Ankalaev was finished by Pereira in 80 seconds in his last fight — does he come out cautious, and does Guskov attack that opening?
- Takedowns vs sprawl: Guskov's takedown defense is untested at this level — can Ankalaev put him on his back and keep him there?
- The championship rounds: Guskov has never fought past 15 minutes, so if it's level after three, experience and cardio decide rounds four and five.
- Short notice: Guskov moved up a week from his own booking to save the main event — does the compressed camp show over five rounds?
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