Ankalaev vs Guskov — Light Heavyweight · UFC Fight Night
Red corner
- 20-2-1
- Record
- 18-3-1
- —
- Finish rateFinish %Finish rateThe share of a fighter’s wins that ended inside the distance — by KO/TKO or submission — rather than going to the judges’ scorecards. Higher means more finishes.
- 100%
Blue corner
Expectations
- 9
- Analyst picksAnalysts — red corner unanimousAnalyst picksCounts all published analyst picks logged for this fight. A side label appears only when at least three picks are logged.
- 0
Full Tale of the Tape · +11 more stats · radar
- 20-2-1
- Record
- 18-3-1
- 3-1-1 last 5
- Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
- 4-0-1 last 5
- Southpaw
- StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
- Orthodox
- —
- Sig. strikes absorbed / minAbsorbed / minSignificant strikes absorbed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter takes for every minute of fight time. Lower is better — it means they get hit less often. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
- 3.40
- —
- Striking defenseStrike def.Striking defenseThe percentage of opponents’ significant strikes that do not land — strikes slipped, blocked or evaded. Higher is better. Not the same as striking accuracy, which counts your own strikes that land. From UFC/FightMetric.
- 50%
- —
- Takedown defenseTD def.Takedown defenseThe percentage of opponents’ takedown attempts that are stuffed. Higher means harder to put on the mat. From UFC/FightMetric.
- 50%
- —
- Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
- 15:00
- Russia
- Nationality
- Uzbekistan
- Fight Club Akhmat / Xtreme Couture
- Team
- Gor MMA
Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Numbers reflect records coming into fight night. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.
What to expect
Case for Ankalaev
Ankalaev wins by leaning on the wrestling and championship pace that made him champion. He out-pointed Alex Pereira over five rounds to take the title before the October rematch went wrong early, and his game — ten knockout wins stacked on top of a real wrestling threat and a grinding pace, with half his wins coming by decision — is built to drag Guskov into deep water he has never seen. Guskov has finished every one of his eighteen wins but has never been past the third round; five championship rounds against a grinder is a different exam.
Case for Guskov
Guskov wins if he lands before the fight hits the mat. 'Hitman' is 4-0-1 in his last five with a perfect finish rate — a first-round knockout of Nikita Krylov, a guillotine of Billy Elekana, and a majority draw with former champion Jan Blachowicz — and he stepped up for the injured Khalil Rountree Jr. with nothing to lose. Ankalaev was stopped by Pereira inside two minutes last time out; if Guskov's power finds that same opening early, the wrestling never matters.
What to Watch
- Round one: Ankalaev was finished by Pereira in 80 seconds in his last fight — does he come out cautious, and does Guskov attack that opening?
- Takedowns vs sprawl: Guskov's takedown defense is untested at this level — can Ankalaev put him on his back and keep him there?
- The championship rounds: Guskov has never fought past 15 minutes, so if it's level after three, experience and cardio decide rounds four and five.
- Short notice: Guskov moved up a week from his own booking to save the main event — does the compressed camp show over five rounds?
Analysts
Independent analyst picks — analysts, fighters and betting desks — on this fight: who they pick, how, and the exact moment they say it. Tap any clip to hear it.
2 of 9 see a finish — 1 by KO/TKO, 1 by submission, 2 by decision.
The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.
DFS By The Numbers Betting deskAnalyst called 32 of 47 DFS By The Numbers: picks Ankalaev — Decision
Takes Ankalaev to use the cleaner, more defensively sound game and clinch/ground control over five rounds against short-notice Guskov.
Track record: winner called in 32 of 47 resolved picks, 13 a perfect call.
Keith Shillan Analyst called 8 of 10 Keith Shillan: picks Ankalaev — Sub · R3
Sees Guskov as dangerous primarily through a puncher's chance, but expects Ankalaev's ground advantage to produce sustained top control before a third-round submission.
- Expects Ankalaev to take Guskov down and control him on top.
Track record: winner called in 8 of 10 resolved picks, 6 a perfect call.
Ben Duffy Analyst called 9 of 10 Ben Duffy: picks Ankalaev — KO/TKO · R3 (note: Says a submission would be equally likely.)
Expects Guskov to wear down if Ankalaev wrestles, clinches and attacks the legs, leading to a third-round ground TKO.
* Says a submission would be equally likely.
Track record: winner called in 9 of 10 resolved picks, 6 a perfect call.
AJ Betting deskAnalyst called 24 of 30 AJ: picks Ankalaev — Decision
Expects Ankalaev's technical edge and five-round experience to manage Guskov's early danger and win a decision.
Track record: winner called in 24 of 30 resolved picks, 15 a perfect call.
Michael Chiesa AnalystFighter track record building Michael Chiesa: picks Ankalaev — to win
Favors Ankalaev's measured, well-rounded game and ability to work at range, in the clinch or on the mat against Guskov's short-notice challenge.
Track record builds as we verify their past calls.
JakeGerberMMA Analyst called 8 of 10 JakeGerberMMA: picks Ankalaev — to win
Names Magomed Ankalaev as the full-card pick in this preview.
Track record: winner called in 8 of 10 resolved picks.
HopperoMMA Analyst called 20 of 33 HopperoMMA: picks Ankalaev — to win
Names Magomed Ankalaev as the full-card pick in this preview.
Track record: winner called in 20 of 33 resolved picks, 8 a perfect call.
Bedtime MMA Analyst called 36 of 58 Bedtime MMA: picks Ankalaev — to win
Names Magomed Ankalaev as the full-card pick in this preview.
Track record: winner called in 36 of 58 resolved picks, 18 a perfect call.
We Want Picks Betting desk called 22 of 37 We Want Picks: picks Ankalaev — to win
Names Magomed Ankalaev as the full-card pick in this preview.
Track record: winner called in 22 of 37 resolved picks.
Fan Picks
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Videos
Signature clips and the lead-up to this fight.
Before the fight · 2 clips
Fight News
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UFC Abu Dhabi ceremonial weigh ins video, final staredowns | Ankalaev vs. Guskov also covered by Yahoo Sports MMA -
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UFC Abu Dhabi weigh-in video: Ankalaev vs. Guskov also covered by Yahoo Sports MMA
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UFC Abu Dhabi: Ankalaev vs. Guskov Weigh-In Results also covered by Yahoo Sports MMA -
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UFC Abu Dhabi best betting props, parlays and picks | Ankalaev vs. Guskov also covered by Yahoo Sports MMA
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