UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov
Magomed Ankalaev defeats Bogdan Guskov by KO/TKO
Round 5 · 2:41
Ankalaev vs Guskov — Light Heavyweight · UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov
Predictions summary
What happened
The result, the defining moments, and what the verdict means.
Ankalaev used rangy attacks and dealt with Guskov's return fire through the first three rounds.
He opened up further as the fight reached the championship rounds.
The fifth-round pressure produced the TKO finish at 2:41.
- Official UFC resultsUFC Abu Dhabi — Main Card Results
Pre-fight analysis — how we saw it going in
Case for Ankalaev
Ankalaev wins by leaning on the wrestling and championship pace that made him champion. He out-pointed Alex Pereira over five rounds to take the title before the October rematch went wrong early, and his game — ten knockout wins stacked on top of a real wrestling threat and a grinding pace, with half his wins coming by decision — is built to drag Guskov into deep water he has never seen. Guskov has finished every one of his eighteen wins but has never been past the third round; five championship rounds against a grinder is a different exam.
Case for Guskov
Guskov wins if he lands before the fight hits the mat. 'Hitman' is 4-0-1 in his last five with a perfect finish rate — a first-round knockout of Nikita Krylov, a guillotine of Billy Elekana, and a majority draw with former champion Jan Blachowicz — and he stepped up for the injured Khalil Rountree Jr. with nothing to lose. Ankalaev was stopped by Pereira inside two minutes last time out; if Guskov's power finds that same opening early, the wrestling never matters.
What We Were Watching For
- Round one: Ankalaev was finished by Pereira in 80 seconds in his last fight — does he come out cautious, and does Guskov attack that opening?
- Takedowns vs sprawl: Guskov's takedown defense is untested at this level — can Ankalaev put him on his back and keep him there?
- The championship rounds: Guskov has never fought past 15 minutes, so if it's level after three, experience and cardio decide rounds four and five.
- Short notice: Guskov moved up a week from his own booking to save the main event — does the compressed camp show over five rounds?
Records & career stats
- 20-2-1
- Record
- 18-3-1
- 3-1-1 last 5
- Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
- 4-0-1 last 5
- Russia
- Nationality
- Uzbekistan
- 34
- Age
- 33
- Southpaw
- StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
- Orthodox
- Source pending
- Finish rateFinish %Finish rateThe share of a fighter’s wins that ended inside the distance — by KO/TKO or submission — rather than going to the judges’ scorecards. Higher means more finishes.
- 100%
- —
- Wins by KO/TKOKO wins
- 15
- 12:27
- Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
- 15:00
- Fight Club Akhmat / Xtreme Couture
- Team
- Gor MMA
Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Record is as of fight night; career stats, recent form and win totals are the latest on file and may include this fight. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.
Videos
Outcome footage, post-fight coverage, and the pre-fight lead-up.
Before the fight (2)
Comments
Who Called It?
How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.
Current pick evidence
Picked: Magomed Ankalaev
Fight result: Magomed Ankalaev · KO/TKO
Names Magomed Ankalaev as the full-card pick in this preview.
“throne. All right, we're picking Maravan Ankal live. I'm going to go with Ank by”
Track record: winner called in 132 of 185 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 71.4% (132 hit, 53 miss, across 185 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 61.9% (60 hit, 37 miss, across 97 method-scored calls on 185 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 40.7% (11 hit, 16 miss, across 27 round-scored calls on 185 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 48.7% (19 hit, 20 miss, across 39 underdog calls on 185 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 71.4% 132 53
- Method Accuracy 61.9% 60 37
- Round Accuracy 40.7% 11 16
- Underdog Accuracy 48.7% 19 20
Current pick evidence
Picked: Magomed Ankalaev · KO/TKO
Fight result: Magomed Ankalaev · KO/TKO
FightIQ's public record lists Magomed Ankalaev as its pick over Bogdan Guskov.
Track record: winner called in 159 of 227 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 70.0% (159 hit, 68 miss, across 227 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 39.9% (59 hit, 89 miss, across 148 method-scored calls on 227 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 55.0% (11 hit, 9 miss, across 20 underdog calls on 227 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 70.0% 159 68
- Method Accuracy 39.9% 59 89
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 55.0% 11 9
Current pick evidence
Picked: Magomed Ankalaev
Fight result: Magomed Ankalaev · KO/TKO
Favors Ankalaev's measured, well-rounded game and ability to work at range, in the clinch or on the mat against Guskov's short-notice challenge.
“this fight to the mat, he can and he will. So for Uncle, I'm taking him by”
Track record: winner called in 50 of 75 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 66.7% (50 hit, 25 miss, across 75 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 40.0% (2 hit, 3 miss, across 5 method-scored calls on 75 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 16.7% (2 hit, 10 miss, across 12 underdog calls on 75 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 66.7% 50 25
- Method Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 16.7% 2 10
Current pick evidence
Picked: Magomed Ankalaev · Dec
Fight result: Magomed Ankalaev · KO/TKO
Expects Ankalaev's technical edge and five-round experience to manage Guskov's early danger and win a decision.
“I'm going to go Ankalaev by a decision.”
Track record: winner called in 175 of 264 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 66.3% (175 hit, 89 miss, across 264 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 58.7% (61 hit, 43 miss, across 104 method-scored calls on 264 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 77.8% (7 hit, 2 miss, across 9 round-scored calls on 264 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 36.4% (12 hit, 21 miss, across 33 underdog calls on 264 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 66.3% 175 89
- Method Accuracy 58.7% 61 43
- Round Accuracy 77.8% 7 2
- Underdog Accuracy 36.4% 12 21
Current pick evidence
Picked: Magomed Ankalaev
Fight result: Magomed Ankalaev · KO/TKO
Picks Magomed Ankalaev winner-only because earlier method and round language conflicts with the later unambiguous winner call.
Track record: winner called in 43 of 65 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 66.2% (43 hit, 22 miss, across 65 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 58.3% (7 hit, 5 miss, across 12 method-scored calls on 65 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 2 miss, across 2 round-scored calls on 65 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 63.6% (7 hit, 4 miss, across 11 underdog calls on 65 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 66.2% 43 22
- Method Accuracy 58.3% 7 5
- Round Accuracy 0.0% 2
- Underdog Accuracy 63.6% 7 4
Current pick evidence
Picked: Magomed Ankalaev
Fight result: Magomed Ankalaev · KO/TKO
Names Magomed Ankalaev as the full-card pick in this preview.
“Boom. Left hand down the pipe. Maybe even a head kick behind it. Puts Guskov”
Track record: winner called in 101 of 154 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 65.6% (101 hit, 53 miss, across 154 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 60.0% (39 hit, 26 miss, across 65 method-scored calls on 154 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 35.7% (5 hit, 9 miss, across 14 round-scored calls on 154 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (4 hit, 8 miss, across 12 underdog calls on 154 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 65.6% 101 53
- Method Accuracy 60.0% 39 26
- Round Accuracy 35.7% 5 9
- Underdog Accuracy 33.3% 4 8
Current pick evidence
Picked: Magomed Ankalaev
Fight result: Magomed Ankalaev · KO/TKO
Names Magomed Ankalaev as the full-card pick in this preview.
“So, Ankolive is going to be the pick.”
Track record: winner called in 93 of 145 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 64.1% (93 hit, 52 miss, across 145 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 40.0% (2 hit, 3 miss, across 5 method-scored calls on 145 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Underdog Accuracy 34.5% (10 hit, 19 miss, across 29 underdog calls on 145 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 64.1% 93 52
- Method Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
- Round AccuracyNamed rounds — none on a correct call yet
- Underdog Accuracy 34.5% 10 19
Current pick evidence
Picked: Magomed Ankalaev · KO/TKO · Round 2
Fight result: Magomed Ankalaev · KO/TKO
MMA JOEY picks Magomed Ankalaev by second-round knockout.
Track record: winner called in 78 of 125 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 62.4% (78 hit, 47 miss, across 125 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 46.6% (27 hit, 31 miss, across 58 method-scored calls on 125 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 28.1% (9 hit, 23 miss, across 32 round-scored calls on 125 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (7 hit, 14 miss, across 21 underdog calls on 125 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 62.4% 78 47
- Method Accuracy 46.6% 27 31
- Round Accuracy 28.1% 9 23
- Underdog Accuracy 33.3% 7 14
Current pick evidence
Picked: Magomed Ankalaev
Fight result: Magomed Ankalaev · KO/TKO
Names Magomed Ankalaev as the full-card pick in this preview.
“disrespect him and pick Guskov to beat him. So, I'm going to go with Ankalaev”
Track record: winner called in 92 of 148 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 62.2% (92 hit, 56 miss, across 148 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 60.8% (45 hit, 29 miss, across 74 method-scored calls on 148 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 48.8% (20 hit, 21 miss, across 41 round-scored calls on 148 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 26.9% (7 hit, 19 miss, across 26 underdog calls on 148 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 62.2% 92 56
- Method Accuracy 60.8% 45 29
- Round Accuracy 48.8% 20 21
- Underdog Accuracy 26.9% 7 19
Current pick evidence
Picked: Magomed Ankalaev · KO/TKO · Round 2
Fight result: Magomed Ankalaev · KO/TKO
Picks Magomed Ankalaev by second-round knockout.
Track record: winner called in 37 of 72 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 51.4% (37 hit, 35 miss, across 72 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 63.3% (19 hit, 11 miss, across 30 method-scored calls on 72 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 57.1% (8 hit, 6 miss, across 14 round-scored calls on 72 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 23.1% (3 hit, 10 miss, across 13 underdog calls on 72 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 51.4% 37 35
- Method Accuracy 63.3% 19 11
- Round Accuracy 57.1% 8 6
- Underdog Accuracy 23.1% 3 10
Current pick evidence
Picked: Magomed Ankalaev · Dec
Fight result: Magomed Ankalaev · KO/TKO
MMA Mania's UFC Abu Dhabi preview has Jesse Holland picking Magomed Ankalaev by decision.
Track record: winner called in 27 of 55 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 49.1% (27 hit, 28 miss, across 55 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 55.6% (15 hit, 12 miss, across 27 method-scored calls on 55 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 27.8% (5 hit, 13 miss, across 18 underdog calls on 55 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 49.1% 27 28
- Method Accuracy 55.6% 15 12
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 27.8% 5 13
Current pick evidence
Picked: Bogdan Guskov
Fight result: Magomed Ankalaev · KO/TKO
FIGHT//AI’s replay record preserves its original live winner selection: Bogdan Guskov.
Track record: winner called in 49 of 153 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 32.0% (49 hit, 104 miss, across 153 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 50.0% (1 hit, 1 miss, across 2 method-scored calls on 153 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 20.0% (20 hit, 80 miss, across 100 underdog calls on 153 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 32.0% 49 104
- Method Accuracy 50.0% 1 1
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 20.0% 20 80
Analyst picks: Bedtime MMA Hit; FightIQ Hit; Michael Chiesa Hit; AJ Devito Hit; KennyOkoyeMMA Hit; JakeGerberMMA Hit; We Want Picks Hit; MMA JOEY Hit; HopperMMA Hit; Greedo Plays MMA Hit; Jesse Holland Hit; FIGHT//AI Miss.
11 of 12 nailed it.
Chart: selected analyst picks, not a win probability. Pill badge: Winner hit rate (total scored picks before this event).
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The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.
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