Co-host on MMA EXPERTS' The Moneyline, covering UFC full-card predictions and betting-facing breakdowns.
AJ on YouTube ↗Scorecard
Called 75 of 109 resolved picks — every call traced to its source, no bare percentage. How Track Record works.
- Winner 75 34
- Method 35 17
- Round 2 1
- Underdog 8 11
Hit Miss
The running record
Every figure below is cumulative — computed over all resolved calls up to and including each card, never one card on its own. A cumulative rate settles as the denominator grows, so its flattening is arithmetic, not a verdict: read where a line sits, and read the vs. the field strip for whether this analyst gained or lost ground on the rest of the roster. Winner is scored on every resolved call; method, round and underdog each have a different and much smaller base, printed beside each one.
Hit Miss Field median Gap to the field
AJ scored 77.7 after 10 cards, against a ranked field spanning 59.7 to 92.5. Also plotted: TheWeasle (#1), KennyOkoyeMMA (#4), Bedtime MMA (#6). Against the median of the other 17 ranked analysts they finished 3.0 above, from 11.9 above at UFC 329.
77.7 now, across 10 cards. The first 2 cards are drawn dashed and hollow: below 20 resolved calls there is no published score yet. The shaded band is where the whole ranked field sits — 59.7 to 92.5 across 18 analysts, this one included.
75 of 109 — 69% now, from 57% at their first scored card.
-
Method
67% 35 of 52 correct winners that named a method
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Round
2 of 3 correct winners that named a round — too few to chart a trend.
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Underdog
42% 8 of 19 priced underdog calls
The opening points are drawn dashed and hollow: below 5 scored calls this rate is not yet a reliable figure.
Card by card
Newest card first — the charts above run oldest to newest. One mark per scored call, hits above the line and misses below. Every call is listed in Call History, below.
- Hooker vs. Parnasse 77.7 8 hit · 6 miss
- Nurmagomedov vs. Song 79.4 7 hit · 6 miss
- UFC 330 82.6 4 hit · 6 miss
- Gamrot vs. Salkilld 87.8 8 hit · 2 miss
- Medic vs. Rodriguez 87.4 6 hit · 2 miss
- Ankalaev vs. Guskov 88.0 10 hit · 2 miss
- Du Plessis vs. Usman 88.1 9 hit · 2 miss
- UFC 329 88.3 11 hit · 2 miss
- Kape vs Horiguchi 76.9 8 hit · 3 miss
- UFC Freedom 250 75.0 4 hit · 3 miss
Call History
Every logged call, grouped by event, scored on Winner, Method, and Round — nothing about a result ever sits behind a click.
underdog pick favourite pick — shown only for picks with a known pre-fight price. The percentage is the chance the market gave the fighter this analyst picked. Open a row for the price’s source and the credit it earned.
Hooker vs. Parnasse
Event scorecard
- Winner 8 6
- Method 5 2
- RoundCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog 1
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aljarouj · to win | Sintes · Dec | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Trusts Aljarouj's power and wrestling to outdo Sintes' trickier but lower-level grappling and striking. “So, I'll go Michael Arajuj in a competitive fight to do some more damage.” | |||||
| Benouaich · Dec | Benouaich · Sub R2 | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
Rates Benouaich's technical game and defence above Montenegro's power-first, defence-light brawling. “I do feel like the French start off with the win. Deli's technical MMA game should be able to overcome a fun brawler in Sophia Montenegro.” | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 76.6%. Campbell · to win | Campbell · Sub R3 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Calls it a low-confidence pick leaning on Campbell's jiu-jitsu, while flagging concern about his chin. “I am going to predict Curtis Campbell,” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 76.6% before the fight, from the pre-event sportsbook consensus frozen before the fight. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Lima · Dec | Lima · Dec | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Sees Lima as more technical everywhere and expects him to out-work Charriere's wilder power style. “I like Felipe Lima a lot in this spot.” | |||||
| Syguła · Dec | Cornolle · Dec | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Favours Syguła's camp and recent improvement over a Cornolle he reads as slowing after injury. “So I will go Claudia Saigula to get it done against Norah Corno.” | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 67.4%. Donchenko · KO/TKO | Donchenko · Dec | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
Rates Donchenko's varied striking as too dangerous for the more boxing-bound Soriano. “So, we'll believe in Donchenko to get the job done. And uh I do hope he shows us a bit of the patience, but he's live to knock Sorano out.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 67.4% before the fight, from the pre-event sportsbook consensus frozen before the fight. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Duclos · KO/TKO | Duclos · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Points to Dias never checking kicks as the opening for Duclos' leg kicks and mobility. “I think that Ducllo is a tricky matchup for Luis Phipe Diaz. And I'm going to pick Ducllo here.” | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 80.8%. Parnasse · KO/TKO | Parnasse · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Believes Parnasse's rounded striking and grappling exploit Hooker's declining defence. “So, we're going Parnas in the main event with just simply too many weapons, much athleticism, too much precision.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 80.8% before the fight, from the pre-event sportsbook consensus frozen before the fight. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 76.3%. Keita · KO/TKO | Keita · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Rates Keita's speed and layered striking well above what he calls a generalist in Naimov. “I'm going with Los Kea.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 76.3% before the fight, from the pre-event sportsbook consensus frozen before the fight. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 34.9%. Ruziboev · Sub | Page · Dec | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Reads Ruziboev's frame, clinch and jiu-jitsu as a bad stylistic matchup for Page. “I'm going to go with Nur Sultan Rizzy Boy.” Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 34.9% before the fight, from the pre-event sportsbook consensus frozen before the fight. Underdog credit earned: 0.00 — credit is earned only on a correct call. | |||||
| Pinto · KO/TKO | Pinto · KO/TKO R2 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Expects Pinto's technical kickboxing to tire Spann and land the finish late. “So Mario Pinto to get the job done to get the knockout in the later stage of the fight.” | |||||
| Sy · Dec | Bukauskas · KO/TKO R2 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Thinks Sy's reach and wrestling let him out-work Bukauskas across fifteen minutes. “I'm going to go with Umarci on the judges scorecards to do a little more over the 15 minutes and take it on uh unanimous decision probably.” | |||||
| Wood · Dec | Andrusca · Dec | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Trusts Wood's UFC track record and full camp against a talented opponent on a short turnaround. “I'm going to trust in Nathaniel Wood to give a veteran lesson to a really talented guy.” | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 58.1%. Ziam · Dec | Sola · KO/TKO R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Credits Ziam's technical striking, clinch work and experience over a more hittable, less tested Sola. “So, we're going FZam to beat Axel Sola in the co-main event.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 58.1% before the fight, from the pre-event sportsbook consensus frozen before the fight. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
Nurmagomedov vs. Song
Event scorecard
- Winner 7 6
- Method 3 2
- Round 1
- UnderdogNo underdog calls with a known pre-fight price
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Meng · KO/TKO | Nelson · Dec | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Picks Ding Meng’s experience, kickboxing and home-country conditions to carry him to a knockout. “Ding Meng for the win. We'll say knockout, but decision is live, too.” * Says a decision remains live. | |||||
| Jingnan · to win | Polastri · KO/TKO R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Reverses his earlier lean after the weigh-ins and face-offs, citing Xiong Jingnan’s size, boxing and home-country setting. “I'm gonna pick flip, man. I think Xiong Jingnan should be able to win.” | |||||
| Lui · to win | Santiago · KO/TKO R2 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Picks Lawrence Lui to outwork Hector Santiago without committing to one finishing method. “I will predict that Lawrence Lui wins.” | |||||
| Woodson · to win | Woodson · Dec | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Picks Sean Woodson on his substantial height and reach advantage, expecting him to control the striking from distance. “Shawn Woodson to go out and get it done. That is going to be my pick for this matchup.” | |||||
| Long · to win | Nuzzi · KO/TKO R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Picks Xiao Long on his experience at a higher level without settling on a result method. “I'm going to go Xiao Long.” | |||||
| Tsuruya · Sub | Tsuruya · Sub R1 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Picks Rei Tsuruya by submission. “Rei Tsuruya sub is the pick.” | |||||
| Lima · Dec | Lima · Sub R3 | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
Picks Andre Lima to outpoint Namsrai Batbayar for a decision win. “I'll predict him to win by a decision.” | |||||
| Hasan · KO/TKO | Hasan · KO/TKO R2 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Picks Bilal Hasan by knockout rather than submission. “I'm not picking submission. I'm picking knockout.” | |||||
| Rodrigues Jr. · KO/TKO · R1 | Ce · KO/TKO R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Picks Liu Ce, the kickboxer, to stop Levi Rodrigues Jr. by first-round knockout. “I'm going to say Liu Ce to win by first-round knockout.” | |||||
| Sumudaerji · to win | Sumudaerji · Dec | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Picks Sumudaerji but leaves the method open between a knockout and decision. “My prediction is Sumudaerji by knockout or decision. It's hard to say.” | |||||
| Asakura · KO/TKO · R1 | Asakura · KO/TKO R2 | Hit | Hit | Miss | |
Picks Kai Asakura by first-round knockout. “I'm going Asakura KO. I'm thinking a first-round knockout for Kai Asakura.” | |||||
| Gomes · Dec | Gomes · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
Picks Denise Gomes by decision, expecting her pressure and body work to slow Yan Xiaonan in a competitive fight. “My official pick is Gomes by decision.” | |||||
| Nurmagomedov · Dec | Yadong · KO/TKO R2 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Picks Umar Nurmagomedov by decision, expecting him to win four rounds to one. “My official pick is Umar by decision.” | |||||
UFC 330
Makhachev vs. Machado Garry
Event scorecard
- Winner 4 6
- Method 2 1
- RoundCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog 1 3
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Favourite call, market price 87.5%. Orolbai · to win | Wells · Sub R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Calls Orolbai the definite pick for his wrestling, control and faster striking against Wells's grappling exposure. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 87.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 27.5%. Tobias · to win | Fernando · KO/TKO R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Backs Tobias's physical grappling and questions Fernando's ground game. Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 27.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Underdog credit earned: 0.00 — credit is earned only on a correct call. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 49.5%. Gore · to win | Gore · Dec R3 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Takes Gore for his upside, momentum, power and athleticism. Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 49.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Underdog credit earned: 0.01 — (50% − 49.5%) ÷ 50%. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 75.5%. Johnson · KO/TKO | Johnson · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Final call is Johnson by KO, after citing Johnson's youth and explosiveness. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 75.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 48.5%. Fernandes · KO/TKO | Turner · KO/TKO R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Makes Fernandes by knockout his official call, citing Turner's durability and mental-lapse concerns. Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 48.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Underdog credit earned: 0.00 — credit is earned only on a correct call. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 73.5%. Álvarez · to win | Njokuani · Dec R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Favors Álvarez for his grappling and kickboxing edges without a final method call. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 73.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 85.5%. Ribovics · KO/TKO | Ribovics · KO/TKO R2 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Independently calls Ribovics by KO, pointing to pressure, heavy hands and Barboza's age/range disadvantage. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 85.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 85.5%. Abdul-Malik · KO/TKO | Stoltzfus · Sub R2 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Calls Abdul-Malik by KO on the strength of his athleticism, wrestling and finishing profile. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 85.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 36.5%. Robertson · Dec | Dern · Dec R5 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Low-confidence Robertson decision pick based on cage pressure and top control. Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 36.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Underdog credit earned: 0.00 — credit is earned only on a correct call. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 73.5%. Makhachev · Sub | Makhachev · Dec R5 | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
Predicts Makhachev submits Garry through takedown setups and top pressure. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 73.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
Gamrot vs. Salkilld
Event scorecard
- Winner 8 2
- Method 4 2
- RoundNamed rounds — none on a correct call yet
- Underdog 2
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Favourite call, market price 57.5%. Salkilld · to win | Salkilld · Sub R1 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Picks Salkilld with no method given. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 57.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 39.5%. Quarantillo · KO/TKO | Ferreira · Dec | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Picks Quarantillo to knock Ferreira out. Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 39.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Underdog credit earned: 0.00 — credit is earned only on a correct call. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 87.5%. del Valle · KO/TKO | del Valle · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Expects a finish either from ground-and-pound or on the feet, and deliberately leaves the round open. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 87.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 79.5%. Miller · KO/TKO | Miller · KO/TKO R3 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Makes Miller by knockout the official pick and explicitly leaves the round open. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 79.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 70.5%. Thainara · Dec | Thainara · Dec | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Predicts Thainara on the scorecards in a grappling-heavy fight. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 70.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Johns · Dec | Johns · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
Rates Vazquez a tough customer but doesn't see Johns dropping a fourth straight. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 59.5%. Nurgozhay · KO/TKO | Nurgozhay · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Locks Nurgozhay for the finish. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 59.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 72.5%. Asplund · KO/TKO | Asplund · Dec | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
Takes Asplund by knockout. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 72.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 75.5%. Sousa · to win | Sousa · Dec | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Resolves a close call toward Sousa. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 75.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 33.5%. Canuto · Sub · R1 | Foro · Dec | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Takes Canuto by first-round submission. Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 33.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Underdog credit earned: 0.00 — credit is earned only on a correct call. | |||||
Medic vs. Rodriguez
Event scorecard
- Winner 6 2
- Method 2
- RoundNamed rounds — none on a correct call yet
- Underdog 1 1
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Favourite call, market price 77.5%. Medić · KO/TKO | Medić · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Rates Medic's speed, timing and kickboxing well above Rodriguez's boxing, and thinks D-Rod gets lit up on the feet in front of a home crowd despite his durability. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 77.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 24.5%. Błachowicz · to win | Stirling · KO/TKO R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Agonised over picking against Stirling, one of his favourite prospects, but decided the short-notice step up is too much too soon and backed the former champion's veteran savvy as a big underdog. Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 24.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Underdog credit earned: 0.00 — credit is earned only on a correct call. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 76.5%. Rakić · to win | Rakić · Dec R3 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Thinks Rakic's speed, footwork and kicks at his new heavyweight build are far too much for a fading 40-year-old Tybura, who has no real power to threaten him. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 76.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 58.5%. Valentin · to win | Valentin · Sub R1 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Started leaning Todorovic then flipped live on air, citing Valentin's speed, kicks, elbows and jiu-jitsu edge and his low opinion of Todorovic. “We're going Robert Valentine. My confidence as I talked about it with you guys here is actually growing on Valentine.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 58.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 73.5%. Cepo · KO/TKO · R1 | Urbina · KO/TKO R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Calls Cepo a relentless first-round finisher moving into a home-town showcase and thinks Urbina, moving up to 185 and easy to bait into a brawl, gets destroyed early. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 73.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 76.5%. Oliveira · KO/TKO | Oliveira · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Sees Oliveira as a freakishly powerful, technically patient striker with a large size and reach edge, and thinks a declining Elliott has been handed a nightmare matchup. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 76.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 30.5%. Musayev · to win | Musayev · KO/TKO R2 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Takes the underdog, arguing Musayev's close-range pressure, takedowns and ground-and-pound can outdog Klein, who is coming back from a broken leg and a nine-month layoff. Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 30.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Underdog credit earned: 0.39 — (50% − 30.5%) ÷ 50%. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 65.5%. Grad · to win | Grad · Sub R2 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Calls it a close battle of two defensively leaky fighters but favours Grad's speed, explosiveness and wrestling, and is worried about Buzukja's chin after a brutal knockout loss. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 65.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
Ankalaev vs. Guskov
Event scorecard
- Winner 10 2
- Method 2 3
- RoundNamed rounds — none on a correct call yet
- Underdog 1
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Favourite call, market price 82.5%. Ankalaev · Dec | Ankalaev · KO/TKO R5 | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
Expects Ankalaev's technical edge and five-round experience to manage Guskov's early danger and win a decision. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 82.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Temirov · to win | Temirov · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Favors Temirov's explosive pressure, power and defensive wrestling over Erceg, while noting Erceg's toughness and grappling ability. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 80.5%. Patterson · KO/TKO | Patterson · KO/TKO R2 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Expects Patterson's reach, straight shots and power to exploit the aging Ponzinibbio's forward pressure for a knockout. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 80.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 76.5%. Kuniev · Dec | Kuniev · KO/TKO R3 | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
Expects Kuniev's positional control and second- and third-round striking to overcome Fortune's early power and wrestling threat. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 76.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Dulatov vs Turman | Dulatov · KO/TKO · R1 | Upcoming | |||
| Favourite call, market price 63.5%. Sola · KO/TKO | Sola · Sub R1 | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
Takes Sola as the longer, quicker and more durable striker, expecting him to break Bonfim down and finish him with strikes. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 63.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 62.5%. Walker · Sub | Walker · Sub R1 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Keeps backing Walker's heel hook until it fails, seeing Petersen as a favorable matchup for another submission. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 62.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 87.5%. Tuchalov · to win | Tuchalov · Dec | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Favors Tuchalov's wrestling and striking advantage, with a ground-and-pound finish one possible outcome. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 87.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 71.5%. Zaynukov · to win | Zaynukov · Dec | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Favors Zaynukov's rhythm, body and leg work, and higher perceived level as he begins his UFC career against Rzepecki. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 71.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 67.5%. Aliev · to win | Aliev · Dec | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Backs Davis as the more complete and proven fighter, expecting his striking and grappling to test Aliev beyond the latter's previous opposition. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 67.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 33.0%. Izagakhmaev · Dec | Vagaev · Dec | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Narrowly favors Izagakhmaev in a competitive fight, citing his craft and stronger back takes despite Vagaev's boxing combinations. Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 33.0% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Underdog credit earned: 0.00 — credit is earned only on a correct call. | |||||
| Jacoby · Dec | Saidov · KO/TKO R2 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Leans on Jacoby's veteran kickboxing and experience to outbox Saidov over three rounds, though he considers the debutant live. * Says the pick could flip after the weigh-ins and further study. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 84.5%. Hussein · to win | Hussein · Sub R3 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Favors Hussein's speed, power and grappling over a 38-year-old Gibson, while acknowledging Gibson could make the opening round difficult. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 84.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
Du Plessis vs. Usman
Event scorecard
- Winner 9 2
- Method 2 4
- RoundCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog 3 1
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Favourite call, market price 64.9%. Du Plessis · KO/TKO | Du Plessis · Dec | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
Takes Du Plessis by knockout, believing he has enough left to handle Usman with power and pressure. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 64.9% before the fight, from the pre-event sportsbook consensus frozen before the fight. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 74.8%. Duncan · KO/TKO | Duncan · Dec | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
Picks Duncan by knockout, expecting his speed and elbows to create the explosive finish against Cannonier. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 74.8% before the fight, from the pre-event sportsbook consensus frozen before the fight. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 83.5%. Barbosa · to win | Barbosa · Sub R1 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Takes Barbosa to outgrapple Melisano, citing the physical flyweight matchup and Barbosa's top-control advantage. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 83.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 49.5%. Harris · KO/TKO | Harris · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Backs Harris' left hook and size to catch Hines and produce an underdog knockout. Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 49.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Underdog credit earned: 0.01 — (50% − 49.5%) ÷ 50%. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 88.5%. Coria · KO/TKO | Coria · Dec | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
Calls Coria by knockout, expecting his straight shots to break through against Nicoll. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 88.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 41.5%. Franco · to win | Franco · KO/TKO R2 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Takes underdog Franco, favoring his grappling and the prospect of taking Rodrigues down and controlling the fight. Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 41.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Underdog credit earned: 0.17 — (50% − 41.5%) ÷ 50%. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 44.5%. Delgado · KO/TKO | Delgado · Dec | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
Takes Delgado by knockout, valuing his ever-present striking chance against the dangerous grappler. Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 44.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Underdog credit earned: 0.11 — (50% − 44.5%) ÷ 50%. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 81.5%. Kline · Dec | Kline · Dec | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Picks Kline by unanimous decision, seeing her as the prospect with the tools to become a title contender. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 81.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 64.9%. McMillen · to win | McMillen · KO/TKO R3 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Backs McMillen's pressure and toughness to pull out the win, while forecasting a stoppage without specifying its type. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 64.9% before the fight, from the pre-event sportsbook consensus frozen before the fight. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 24.8%. Ramirez · KO/TKO | Hooper · Sub R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Calls the upset for Ramirez by knockout, citing Hooper's recent stoppage losses and Ramirez's power-punching style. Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 24.8% before the fight, from the pre-event sportsbook consensus frozen before the fight. Underdog credit earned: 0.00 — credit is earned only on a correct call. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 60.5%. Ko · Dec | Lebosnoyani · Dec | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Trusts Ko's versatility, patience and control-based grappling to win the judges' scorecards. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 60.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
UFC 329
McGregor vs. Holloway 2
Event scorecard
- Winner 11 2
- Method 9 2
- Round 1
- Underdog 1
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Favourite call, market price 71.5%. Holloway · KO/TKO | Holloway · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Shares the Holloway stoppage read. He expects McGregor to fatigue and become uncomfortable as Holloway's combinations stack up, with Holloway avenging the first fight by knockout. “I think Max Holloway is going to avenge that loss by KO.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 71.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 57.5%. Sandhagen · Dec | Bautista · Dec | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Sees Sandhagen as a little craftier, faster and more dynamic than Bautista. He respects Bautista's volume and cardio, but thinks Sandhagen's range tools and grappling answers edge the rematch. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 57.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 68.5%. Kavanagh · to win | Royval · Sub R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Picks Kavanagh because of the cleaner, faster and more technical kickboxing. He gives Royval chaos and grappling danger, but expects Kavanagh to stay a step ahead. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 68.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 89.5%. Steveson · KO/TKO · R1 | Steveson · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Hit | Hit | |
Treats the fight as a Steveson showcase. He expects the Olympic wrestler to put Ellison on the mat quickly, lean on ground-and-pound, and finish in the first round. “Gable Stevenson should deliver a first round TKO.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 89.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 53.5%. Whittaker · KO/TKO | Whittaker · KO/TKO R3 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Likes Whittaker's speed and cleaner striking at light heavyweight. He sees Krylov as hittable and vulnerable after recent knockout losses, giving Whittaker a statement finish opportunity. “I think Robert Whitaker is gonna end up knocking him out, too.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 53.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 53.5%. Wang · Dec | Wang · Dec | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Splits from Finch and takes Wang Cong on the striking edge. He thinks Wang is faster, can win the exchanges, and can do just enough with get-ups to edge a close scorecard. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 53.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 69.5%. Riley · Dec | Riley · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
Trusts Riley's prospect momentum and sharper hands, while respecting Kamaka's seasoning across UFC, Bellator and PFL. He expects Riley to win a hard-fought decision. “I think Luke Riley wins a hard-fought decision against him.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 69.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 77.5%. Yañez · KO/TKO | Yañez · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Sees this as a Yanez showcase against a fading Garbrandt. He thinks Yanez can force a big exchange and land the shot Garbrandt can no longer reliably absorb. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 77.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 55.5%. Gandra · KO/TKO | Gandra · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Sides with Gandra's pressure, boxing background and power in both hands. He respects Reese's kicking game, but expects Gandra to bully him in close and make the knockout threat count. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 55.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 67.5%. Costa · Sub | Costa · Sub R2 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Thinks Costa's low center of gravity, physical grappling, forward pressure and calf kicks make this a difficult Durden matchup. He expects Durden to be in a striking deficit and sees Costa hurting him into a submission. “I think we're looking at a submission for Costa.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 67.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 85.5%. Basharat · Sub | Basharat · Dec | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
Calls the short-notice UFC debut a tall task for Garza. He likes Garza's pressure and right hand, but sees Basharat as the seasoned, well-rounded UFC fighter with enough grappling layers to take over and finish by submission. “I'll go Farid by submission finish.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 85.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 70.5%. Pinas · KO/TKO | Pinas · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Calls it close, but favours Pinas because of his length, power and finishing upside. He thinks Pinas has more live knockout paths than Almeida and is the stronger side despite the hard matchup. “I have to favor the side of Pinas.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 70.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 46.5%. Pimblett · Sub | Pimblett · Sub R1 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Takes Pimblett to weather Saint Denis' early chaos and punish mistakes once grappling scrambles open. He expects Pimblett's back-taking and submission game to decide it later. “I'm going Patty Pima by submission here.” Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 46.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Underdog credit earned: 0.07 — (50% − 46.5%) ÷ 50%. | |||||
Kape vs Horiguchi
Event scorecard
- Winner 8 3
- Method 2 1
- RoundCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog 2 1
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Favourite call, market price 65.5%. Collins · to win | Collins · Decision - Unanimous R3 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Picks Shane Collins for the boxing edge over Otari Tanzilovi. “I'm going with Shane Collins.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 65.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 77.5%. Chokheli · to win | Chokheli · TKO (leg kick and punches) R1 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Picks Levan Chokheli on dangerous boxing against Leon Shahbazyan. “Chokheli should knock him out.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 77.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 49.5%. Santos · to win | Santos · Decision - Unanimous R3 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Picks Luana Santos against Karol Rosa on her grappling advantage. “We're riding with the side of Luana.” Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 49.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Underdog credit earned: 0.01 — (50% − 49.5%) ÷ 50%. | |||||
| Jr. · KO/TKO | Bolanos · Decision - Unanimous R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Picks Michael Aswell to stop Gaston Bolanos, citing the finish as the most likely outcome. “Azwell handles business. So, we're going Azwell. I'm going to go knockout.” | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 42.0%. Raposo · Dec | Raposo · Decision - Split R3 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Picks Mitch Raposo for an underdog split decision, trusting his grit and boxing against Allan Nascimento. “I'm going Raposo. I think he's gritty.” Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 42.0% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Underdog credit earned: 0.16 — (50% − 42.0%) ÷ 50%. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 84.5%. Lima · to win | Borjas · Decision - Unanimous R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Picks Andre Lima to beat Kevin Borjas and expects an inside-the-distance finish without naming a canonical method. “I'm going to pick Lima. I'm going to say Lima finishes him.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 84.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 67.5%. Rodriguez · Dec | Rodriguez · Technical Submission (guillotine choke) R1 | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
Picks Christian Rodriguez to outwork Hyder Amil over a decision. “I am going Christian Rodriguez by decision.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 67.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 29.5%. Fili · Dec | Oliveira · TKO (punches/elbows) R2 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Picks Andre Fili for a close decision as an underdog, trusting his range and counter-striking against Vinicius Oliveira. “I'm going to go Andre Fili by a close decision.” Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 29.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Underdog credit earned: 0.00 — credit is earned only on a correct call. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 75.5%. Stirling · to win | Stirling · TKO (punches) R2 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Picks Navajo Stirling to technically outwork Ion Cutelaba. “The pick Sterling for the W in the co-main event.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 75.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 61.5%. Kape · to win | Kape · TKO (punches) R3 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Picks Manel Kape on speed, boxing and power, reversing an earlier Horiguchi lean after the weigh-ins. “I'm going Manel Kape for the win to beat Kyoji Horiguchi.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 61.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 85.0%. Mesquita · Sub | Mesquita · Sub R1 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Picks Bia Mesquita to submit Melissa Mullins, citing Mesquita's elite grappling advantage. “I think she wins by submission.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 85.0% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
UFC Freedom 250
Topuria vs. Gaethje
Event scorecard
- Winner 4 3
- Method 4
- Round 1
- Underdog 1
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Favourite call, market price 79.5%. Topuria · KO/TKO | Gaethje · KO/TKO R4 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
AJ expects Topuria's sharper close-range boxing, head movement and counters to make Gaethje look too hittable, ending in a violent knockout inside the first 10 minutes. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 79.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 52.5%. Pereira · KO/TKO | Gane · KO/TKO R2 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
AJ backs Pereira's power and cage pressure to catch Gane after the early movement slows, calling for Pereira to trap him and win by knockout. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 52.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 77.5%. O'Malley · KO/TKO | O'Malley · KO/TKO R2 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
AJ sees O'Malley as the faster, superior boxer against a 38-year-old Zahabi whose boxing style and limited grappling threat leave him open to a vintage knockout. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 77.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 79.5%. Hokit · KO/TKO · R2 | Hokit · KO/TKO R2 | Hit | Hit | Hit | |
AJ says the fan pick is Lewis by early bomb, but his analyst call is Hokit by second-round ground-and-pound after wrestling, wearing Lewis down and avoiding the pocket. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 79.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 81.0%. Ruffy · KO/TKO | Ruffy · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
AJ frames Ruffy as the obvious side: too precise, rangy and dangerous for a 40-year-old Chandler, who might clinch early but eventually gets destroyed on the feet. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 81.0% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 24.5%. Daukaus · to win | Nickal · KO/TKO R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
AJ does not trust Nickal after the de Ridder loss and thinks Daukaus is live enough with striking and MMA grappling resistance to turn the bout into a rough underdog upset. Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 24.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Underdog credit earned: 0.00 — credit is earned only on a correct call. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 59.5%. Lopes · KO/TKO | Lopes · KO/TKO R2 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
AJ expects Lopes to survive Garcia's pressure behind the better chin, cleaner counters and grappling threat, then find a later-stage finish as Garcia walks into big shots. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 59.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
Videos
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