Co-host on MMA EXPERTS' The Moneyline, covering UFC full-card predictions and betting-facing breakdowns.
AJ on YouTube ↗Track Record
Derived from every pick we've logged and verified — shown with its denominator, never a bare percentage. Draws and no-contests fall outside it. How Track Record works.
Called 24 of 30 resolved picks
15 of 24 hits also matched the method.
Call Profile
How this analyst's logged calls performed: winner, stated detail, and frozen pre-event underdog context.
3 calls included both method and round.
On the Card
AJ's picks for UFC Fight Night — tap a row for the reasoning and the source clip.
Upcoming Ankalaev vs Guskov PickAnkalaev · Decision AJ: picks Ankalaev · Decision for Ankalaev vs Guskov — upcoming.
Expects Ankalaev's technical edge and five-round experience to manage Guskov's early danger and win a decision.
Upcoming Erceg vs Temirov PickTemirov · to win AJ: picks Temirov · to win for Erceg vs Temirov — upcoming.
Favors Temirov's explosive pressure, power and defensive wrestling over Erceg, while noting Erceg's toughness and grappling ability.
Upcoming Ponzinibbio vs Patterson PickPatterson · KO/TKO AJ: picks Patterson · KO/TKO for Ponzinibbio vs Patterson — upcoming.
Expects Patterson's reach, straight shots and power to exploit the aging Ponzinibbio's forward pressure for a knockout.
Upcoming Kuniev vs Fortune PickKuniev · Decision AJ: picks Kuniev · Decision for Kuniev vs Fortune — upcoming.
Expects Kuniev's positional control and second- and third-round striking to overcome Fortune's early power and wrestling threat.
Upcoming Dulatov vs Turman PickDulatov · KO/TKO · R1 AJ: picks Dulatov · KO/TKO · R1 for Dulatov vs Turman — upcoming.
Expects Dulatov's striking to overwhelm Turman quickly for a first-round knockout.
Upcoming Bonfim vs Sola PickSola · KO/TKO AJ: picks Sola · KO/TKO for Bonfim vs Sola — upcoming.
Takes Sola as the longer, quicker and more durable striker, expecting him to break Bonfim down and finish him with strikes.
Upcoming Walker vs Petersen PickWalker · Sub AJ: picks Walker · Sub for Walker vs Petersen — upcoming.
Keeps backing Walker's heel hook until it fails, seeing Petersen as a favorable matchup for another submission.
Upcoming Tuchalov vs Ribeiro PickTuchalov · to win AJ: picks Tuchalov · to win for Tuchalov vs Ribeiro — upcoming.
Favors Tuchalov's wrestling and striking advantage, with a ground-and-pound finish one possible outcome.
Upcoming Zaynukov vs Rzepecki PickZaynukov · to win AJ: picks Zaynukov · to win for Zaynukov vs Rzepecki — upcoming.
Favors Zaynukov's rhythm, body and leg work, and higher perceived level as he begins his UFC career against Rzepecki.
Upcoming Davis vs Aliev PickAliev · to win AJ: picks Aliev · to win for Davis vs Aliev — upcoming.
Backs Davis as the more complete and proven fighter, expecting his striking and grappling to test Aliev beyond the latter's previous opposition.
Upcoming Vagaev vs Izagakhmaev PickIzagakhmaev · Decision AJ: picks Izagakhmaev · Decision for Vagaev vs Izagakhmaev — upcoming.
Narrowly favors Izagakhmaev in a competitive fight, citing his craft and stronger back takes despite Vagaev's boxing combinations.
Upcoming Jacoby vs Said PickJacoby · Decision AJ: picks Jacoby · Decision for Jacoby vs Said — upcoming. Note: Says the pick could flip after the weigh-ins and further study.
Leans on Jacoby's veteran kickboxing and experience to outbox Said over three rounds, though he considers the debutant live.
* Says the pick could flip after the weigh-ins and further study.
Upcoming Gibson vs Hussein PickHussein · to win AJ: picks Hussein · to win for Gibson vs Hussein — upcoming.
Favors Hussein's speed, power and grappling over a 38-year-old Gibson, while acknowledging Gibson could make the opening round difficult.
Resolved Calls
What was predicted, what actually happened, and whether it hit.
Hit Barbosa vs Melisano AJ: predicted Barbosa · to win for Barbosa vs Melisano. Actual Barbosa · Sub R1. Result: Hit.
Takes Barbosa to outgrapple Melisano, citing the physical flyweight matchup and Barbosa's top-control advantage.
Hit Bashi vs Delgado AJ: predicted Delgado · KO/TKO for Bashi vs Delgado. Actual Delgado · Dec. Result: Hit.
Takes Delgado by knockout, valuing his ever-present striking chance against the dangerous grappler.
Hit Cannonier vs Duncan AJ: predicted Duncan · KO/TKO for Cannonier vs Duncan. Actual Duncan · Dec. Result: Hit.
Picks Duncan by knockout, expecting his speed and elbows to create the explosive finish against Cannonier.
Hit Coria vs Nicoll AJ: predicted Coria · KO/TKO for Coria vs Nicoll. Actual Coria · Dec. Result: Hit.
Calls Coria by knockout, expecting his straight shots to break through against Nicoll.
Hit Du Plessis vs Usman AJ: predicted Du Plessis · KO/TKO for Du Plessis vs Usman. Actual Du Plessis · Dec. Result: Hit.
Takes Du Plessis by knockout, believing he has enough left to handle Usman with power and pressure.
Perfect Harris vs Hines AJ: predicted Harris · KO/TKO for Harris vs Hines. Actual Harris · KO/TKO R1. Result: Perfect.
Backs Harris' left hook and size to catch Hines and produce an underdog knockout.
Miss Hooper vs Ramirez AJ: predicted Ramirez · KO/TKO for Hooper vs Ramirez. Actual Hooper · Sub R1. Result: Miss.
Calls the upset for Ramirez by knockout, citing Hooper's recent stoppage losses and Ramirez's power-punching style.
Hit McMillen vs Montes AJ: predicted McMillen · to win for McMillen vs Montes. Actual McMillen · KO/TKO R3. Result: Hit.
Backs McMillen's pressure and toughness to pull out the win, while forecasting a stoppage without specifying its type.
Perfect Ricci vs Kline AJ: predicted Kline · Decision for Ricci vs Kline. Actual Kline · Dec. Result: Perfect.
Picks Kline by unanimous decision, seeing her as the prospect with the tools to become a title contender.
Hit Rodrigues Jr. vs Franco AJ: predicted Franco · to win for Rodrigues Jr. vs Franco. Actual Franco · KO/TKO R2. Result: Hit.
Takes underdog Franco, favoring his grappling and the prospect of taking Rodrigues down and controlling the fight.
Hit Basharat vs Garza AJ: predicted Basharat · Sub for Basharat vs Garza. Actual Basharat · Dec. Result: Hit.
Calls the short-notice UFC debut a tall task for Garza. He likes Garza's pressure and right hand, but sees Basharat as the seasoned, well-rounded UFC fighter with enough grappling layers to take over and finish by submission.
“I'll go Farid by submission finish.”
Perfect Cortez vs Wang AJ: predicted Wang · Decision for Cortez vs Wang. Actual Wang · Dec. Result: Perfect.
Splits from Finch and takes Wang Cong on the striking edge. He thinks Wang is faster, can win the exchanges, and can do just enough with get-ups to edge a close scorecard.
Perfect Costa vs Durden AJ: predicted Costa · Sub for Costa vs Durden. Actual Costa · Sub R2. Result: Perfect.
Thinks Costa's low center of gravity, physical grappling, forward pressure and calf kicks make this a difficult Durden matchup. He expects Durden to be in a striking deficit and sees Costa hurting him into a submission.
“I think we're looking at a submission for Costa.”
Perfect Gandra vs Reese AJ: predicted Gandra · KO/TKO for Gandra vs Reese. Actual Gandra · KO/TKO R1. Result: Perfect.
Sides with Gandra's pressure, boxing background and power in both hands. He respects Reese's kicking game, but expects Gandra to bully him in close and make the knockout threat count.
Perfect Garbrandt vs Yañez AJ: predicted Yañez · KO/TKO for Garbrandt vs Yañez. Actual Yañez · KO/TKO R1. Result: Perfect.
Sees this as a Yanez showcase against a fading Garbrandt. He thinks Yanez can force a big exchange and land the shot Garbrandt can no longer reliably absorb.
Perfect McGregor vs Holloway AJ: predicted Holloway · KO/TKO for McGregor vs Holloway. Actual Holloway · KO/TKO R1. Result: Perfect.
Shares the Holloway stoppage read. He expects McGregor to fatigue and become uncomfortable as Holloway's combinations stack up, with Holloway avenging the first fight by knockout.
“I think Max Holloway is going to avenge that loss by KO.”
Perfect Pimblett vs Saint Denis AJ: predicted Pimblett · Sub for Pimblett vs Saint Denis. Actual Pimblett · Sub R1. Result: Perfect.
Takes Pimblett to weather Saint Denis' early chaos and punish mistakes once grappling scrambles open. He expects Pimblett's back-taking and submission game to decide it later.
“I'm going Patty Pima by submission here.”
Perfect Pinas vs Almeida AJ: predicted Pinas · KO/TKO for Pinas vs Almeida. Actual Pinas · KO/TKO R1. Result: Perfect.
Calls it close, but favours Pinas because of his length, power and finishing upside. He thinks Pinas has more live knockout paths than Almeida and is the stronger side despite the hard matchup.
“I have to favor the side of Pinas.”
Hit Riley vs Kamaka AJ: predicted Riley · Decision for Riley vs Kamaka. Actual Riley · KO/TKO R1. Result: Hit.
Trusts Riley's prospect momentum and sharper hands, while respecting Kamaka's seasoning across UFC, Bellator and PFL. He expects Riley to win a hard-fought decision.
“I think Luke Riley wins a hard-fought decision against him.”
Miss Royval vs Kavanagh AJ: predicted Kavanagh · to win for Royval vs Kavanagh. Actual Royval · Sub R3. Result: Miss.
Picks Kavanagh because of the cleaner, faster and more technical kickboxing. He gives Royval chaos and grappling danger, but expects Kavanagh to stay a step ahead.
Miss Sandhagen vs Bautista AJ: predicted Sandhagen · Decision for Sandhagen vs Bautista. Actual Bautista · Dec. Result: Miss.
Sees Sandhagen as a little craftier, faster and more dynamic than Bautista. He respects Bautista's volume and cardio, but thinks Sandhagen's range tools and grappling answers edge the rematch.
Perfect Steveson vs Ellison AJ: predicted Steveson · KO/TKO · R1 for Steveson vs Ellison. Actual Steveson · KO/TKO R1. Result: Perfect.
Treats the fight as a Steveson showcase. He expects the Olympic wrestler to put Ellison on the mat quickly, lean on ground-and-pound, and finish in the first round.
“Gable Stevenson should deliver a first round TKO.”
Perfect Whittaker vs Krylov AJ: predicted Whittaker · KO/TKO for Whittaker vs Krylov. Actual Whittaker · KO/TKO R3. Result: Perfect.
Likes Whittaker's speed and cleaner striking at light heavyweight. He sees Krylov as hittable and vulnerable after recent knockout losses, giving Whittaker a statement finish opportunity.
“I think Robert Whitaker is gonna end up knocking him out, too.”
Perfect Lewis vs Hokit AJ: predicted Hokit · KO/TKO · R2 for Lewis vs Hokit. Actual Hokit · KO/TKO R2. Result: Perfect.
AJ says the fan pick is Lewis by early bomb, but his analyst call is Hokit by second-round ground-and-pound after wrestling, wearing Lewis down and avoiding the pocket.
Perfect Lopes vs Garcia AJ: predicted Lopes · KO/TKO for Lopes vs Garcia. Actual Lopes · KO/TKO R2. Result: Perfect.
AJ expects Lopes to survive Garcia's pressure behind the better chin, cleaner counters and grappling threat, then find a later-stage finish as Garcia walks into big shots.
Miss Nickal vs Daukaus AJ: predicted Daukaus · to win for Nickal vs Daukaus. Actual Nickal · KO/TKO R1. Result: Miss.
AJ does not trust Nickal after the de Ridder loss and thinks Daukaus is live enough with striking and MMA grappling resistance to turn the bout into a rough underdog upset.
Perfect O'Malley vs Zahabi AJ: predicted O'Malley · KO/TKO for O'Malley vs Zahabi. Actual O'Malley · KO/TKO R2. Result: Perfect.
AJ sees O'Malley as the faster, superior boxer against a 38-year-old Zahabi whose boxing style and limited grappling threat leave him open to a vintage knockout.
Miss Pereira vs Gane AJ: predicted Pereira · KO/TKO for Pereira vs Gane. Actual Gane · KO/TKO R2. Result: Miss.
AJ backs Pereira's power and cage pressure to catch Gane after the early movement slows, calling for Pereira to trap him and win by knockout.
Perfect Ruffy vs Chandler AJ: predicted Ruffy · KO/TKO for Ruffy vs Chandler. Actual Ruffy · KO/TKO R1. Result: Perfect.
AJ frames Ruffy as the obvious side: too precise, rangy and dangerous for a 40-year-old Chandler, who might clinch early but eventually gets destroyed on the feet.
Miss Topuria vs Gaethje AJ: predicted Topuria · KO/TKO for Topuria vs Gaethje. Actual Gaethje · KO/TKO R4. Result: Miss.
AJ expects Topuria's sharper close-range boxing, head movement and counters to make Gaethje look too hittable, ending in a violent knockout inside the first 10 minutes.