UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes
Paddy Pimblett defeats Michael Chandler by TKO
Round 3 · 3:07
Chandler vs Pimblett — Lightweight Bout · UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes
Predictions summary
What happened
The result, the defining moments, and what the verdict means.
Pimblett controlled distance and volume from the opening round, busting Chandler up early.
A round-three knee opened the cut before Pimblett took Chandler down and moved into mount.
Elbows and punches from mount brought the stoppage at 3:07 of round three.
- Official UFC resultsUFC 314: Volkanovski vs Lopes — Main Card Results
Pre-fight analysis — how we saw it going in
Case for Chandler
Chandler’s route was still built on explosive entries, wrestling bursts and the kind of sudden power that can change a fight before a longer opponent settles. If he could create scrambles early and make Pimblett defend instead of build, the veteran had a real upset path.
Case for Pimblett
Pimblett had youth, length and a grappling game that becomes more dangerous once he gets extended top time. His path was to survive Chandler’s early explosions, keep making him work, and then turn volume, elbows and positional control into attritional damage.
What We Were Watching For
- Can Chandler create early chaos before Pimblett settles into range?
- Pimblett’s top control and elbows if Chandler gives up extended grappling positions.
- Whether the fight turns from Chandler bursts into a longer durability test.
Records & career stats
- 23-9-0
- Record
- 22-3-0
- 1-4 last 5
- Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
- 4-1 last 5
- USA
- Nationality
- England
- 40
- Age
- 31
- Orthodox
- StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
- Orthodox
- 78%
- Finish rateFinish %Finish rateThe share of a fighter’s wins that ended inside the distance — by KO/TKO or submission — rather than going to the judges’ scorecards. Higher means more finishes.
- Source pending
- 7
- Wins by submissionSub wins
- —
- 09:14
- Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
- 09:49
- Kill Cliff FC
- Team
- NEXT Generation MMA
Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Record is as of fight night; career stats, recent form and win totals are the latest on file and may include this fight. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.
Videos
Outcome footage, post-fight coverage, and the pre-fight lead-up.
Before the fight (1)
Comments
Who Called It?
How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.
Current pick evidence
Picked: Paddy Pimblett · Sub
Fight result: Paddy Pimblett · TKO
AJ picks Paddy Pimblett and identifies a club-and-sub sequence, with Pimblett hurting Chandler before taking his back or locking a choke.
Track record: winner called in 175 of 264 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 66.3% (175 hit, 89 miss, across 264 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 58.7% (61 hit, 43 miss, across 104 method-scored calls on 264 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 77.8% (7 hit, 2 miss, across 9 round-scored calls on 264 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 36.4% (12 hit, 21 miss, across 33 underdog calls on 264 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 66.3% 175 89
- Method Accuracy 58.7% 61 43
- Round Accuracy 77.8% 7 2
- Underdog Accuracy 36.4% 12 21
Current pick evidence
Picked: Paddy Pimblett · KO/TKO · Round 2
Fight result: Paddy Pimblett · TKO
The MMA Guru settles on Paddy Pimblett by second-round TKO, expecting Chandler's early pressure to fade before Pimblett finds the finish.
Track record: winner called in 213 of 322 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 66.1% (213 hit, 109 miss, across 322 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 53.4% (62 hit, 54 miss, across 116 method-scored calls on 322 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 35.9% (14 hit, 25 miss, across 39 round-scored calls on 322 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 47.4% (18 hit, 20 miss, across 38 underdog calls on 322 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 66.1% 213 109
- Method Accuracy 53.4% 62 54
- Round Accuracy 35.9% 14 25
- Underdog Accuracy 47.4% 18 20
Analyst picks: AJ Devito Hit; The MMA Guru Hit.
2 of 2 nailed it.
Chart: selected analyst picks, not a win probability. Pill badge: Winner hit rate (total scored picks before this event).
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The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.
AI Predictions
This fight is settled. Eligible pre-fight AI forecasts load when this page is online.
Market Odds
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