Franco def. Rodrigues Jr.
KO/TKO · punches · Round 2 · 1:40
Rodrigues Jr. vs Franco — Light Heavyweight · UFC Fight Night
What happened
Franco weathered the early pressure, then took over. He found his range on the feet and used those entries to put Rodrigues on the canvas, controlling position for the rest of the first. In the second a sharp right hand backed Rodrigues up, Franco closed to the clinch and took mount, and the ground-and-pound that followed ended it at 1:40 — his first UFC win, and the first blemish on Rodrigues's record.
- Franco absorbed Rodrigues's opening pressure before finding his range on the feet.
- Striking entries set up takedowns and sustained positional control in round one.
- A right hand backed Rodrigues up in the second; Franco clinched, took mount, and finished with ground-and-pound at 1:40.
Play-by-play source: UFC.com · UFC Oklahoma City results
Who Called It?
How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.
Caller scorecard: Adam Martin missed; Marcel Dorff missed; Keith Shillan missed; Mike Finch missed; Half The Battle missed; DFS By The Numbers missed; JakeGerberMMA missed; Ben Duffy perfect call; AJ called it; James Lynch called it.
Only 3 of 10 called the upset · 1 nailed the finish ★.
The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.
Full analyst picks ↓
Ben Duffy Analyst called 9 of 10 Ben Duffy: predicted Franco · KO/TKO. Actual Franco · KO/TKO R2. Result: Perfect call.
Sees upset potential in Franco's quicker hands and comparable power, with the defensive flaws on both sides leading him to a knockout pick.
Track record: winner called in 9 of 10 resolved picks, 6 a perfect call.
AJ Betting deskAnalyst called 24 of 30 AJ: predicted Franco · to win. Actual Franco · KO/TKO R2. Result: Hit.
Takes underdog Franco, favoring his grappling and the prospect of taking Rodrigues down and controlling the fight.
Track record: winner called in 24 of 30 resolved picks, 15 a perfect call.
James Lynch Analyst called 9 of 10 James Lynch: predicted Franco · to win. Actual Franco · KO/TKO R2. Result: Hit.
Takes the underdog Franco on experience and expects a second-round knockout.
Track record: winner called in 9 of 10 resolved picks.
Adam Martin AnalystBetting desk called 8 of 9 Adam Martin: predicted Rodrigues Jr. · KO/TKO. Actual Franco · KO/TKO R2. Result: Miss.
Picks Rodrigues to win by knockout, while noting the uncertainty after his suspension.
Track record: winner called in 8 of 9 resolved picks, 6 a perfect call.
Marcel Dorff Analyst called 7 of 9 Marcel Dorff: predicted Rodrigues Jr. · KO/TKO · R2. Actual Franco · KO/TKO R2. Result: Miss.
Picks Rodrigues by second-round TKO, while flagging the drop to light heavyweight as a variable.
Track record: winner called in 7 of 9 resolved picks, 5 a perfect call.
Keith Shillan Analyst called 8 of 10 Keith Shillan: predicted Rodrigues Jr. · Decision. Actual Franco · KO/TKO R2. Result: Miss.
Picks Rodrigues' better striking in a low-confidence decision call.
Track record: winner called in 8 of 10 resolved picks, 6 a perfect call.
Mike Finch Betting deskAnalyst called 19 of 31 Mike Finch: predicted Rodrigues Jr. · KO/TKO. Actual Franco · KO/TKO R2. Result: Miss.
Picks Rodrigues by knockout, seeing his speed and danger as the better side in a volatile matchup.
Track record: winner called in 19 of 31 resolved picks, 8 a perfect call.
Half The Battle Analyst called 12 of 19 Half The Battle: predicted Rodrigues Jr. · KO/TKO. Actual Franco · KO/TKO R2. Result: Miss.
Picks Rodrigues to knock out Franco, while noting the unanswered questions if the matchup stays on the mat.
Track record: winner called in 12 of 19 resolved picks, 2 a perfect call.
DFS By The Numbers Betting deskAnalyst called 32 of 47 DFS By The Numbers: predicted Rodrigues Jr. · to win. Actual Franco · KO/TKO R2. Result: Miss.
Takes Rodrigues based on the more convincing striking, power and cardio from the regional tape.
Track record: winner called in 32 of 47 resolved picks, 13 a perfect call.
JakeGerberMMA Analyst called 8 of 10 JakeGerberMMA: predicted Rodrigues Jr. · to win. Actual Franco · KO/TKO R2. Result: Miss.
Takes Rodrigues' power and pressure over Franco's inconsistent, hesitant form.
Track record: winner called in 8 of 10 resolved picks.
Odds
How the market called it — the final pre-fight line against the result, not betting advice.
Market read · 7 sportsbooks
Favoured: Jr. (59%) Upset
Franco def. Jr. · KO/TKO R2
Archive
Pre-fight material — kept for transparency, folded by default.
Tale of the Tape
Records & career stats — as they entered fight night
- Orthodox
- StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
- Orthodox
- —
- Sig. strikes landed / minStrikes / minSignificant strikes landed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter lands for every minute of fight time — a read on striking output and pace. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
- 1.81
- —
- Sig. strikes absorbed / minAbsorbed / minSignificant strikes absorbed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter takes for every minute of fight time. Lower is better — it means they get hit less often. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
- 2.55
- —
- Striking defenseStrike def.Striking defenseThe percentage of opponents’ significant strikes that do not land — strikes slipped, blocked or evaded. Higher is better. Not the same as striking accuracy, which counts your own strikes that land. From UFC/FightMetric.
- 38%
- —
- Takedown defenseTD def.Takedown defenseThe percentage of opponents’ takedown attempts that are stuffed. Higher means harder to put on the mat. From UFC/FightMetric.
- 88%
- —
- Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
- 14:54
- Light Heavyweight
- Weight classWeight
- Heavyweight (moving down)
- Brazil
- Nationality
- Brazil
- Inside Muay Thai
- Team
- Galpao da Luta
Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Numbers reflect records coming into fight night. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.
Pre-fight analysis — how we saw it going in
Case for Rodrigues Jr.
Rodrigues is unbeaten and has never heard the final bell — five wins, all knockouts, all inside the distance. He is the fresher finisher, and against a Franco who has been stopped before, one clean early exchange is usually all his power needs.
Case for Franco
Franco is the more experienced finisher (10-2, every win inside the distance) with the grappling to change levels — six knockouts and four submissions mean he can end it standing or on the mat. He has also seen tougher rooms, and the Freddy Vidal tape cuts both ways: Vidal submitted Franco but only managed a no-contest against Rodrigues.
What We Were Watching For
- Two 100% finishers: this rarely reaches the scorecards — who lands the first clean shot?
- Shared Vidal thread: Franco was submitted by Freddy Vidal; Rodrigues fought him to a no-contest — whose result reads better?
- Franco's debut jitters: he was out-pointed by Mario Pinto in his UFC bow — has he settled, or is the Octagon jump still raw?
- Rodrigues' untested chin: 5-0 but never in deep water — what happens if Franco survives the first wave?
Fighters
Reader thread
Reader takes
Public fan takes, kept separate from FightCardIQ analysis and held to moderation.
Comments are currently closed while we finish moderation and privacy controls.