Felipe Franco defeats Levi Rodrigues Jr. by KO/TKO
Rodrigues Jr. vs Franco — Light Heavyweight · Du Plessis vs. Usman
What happened
The result, the defining moments, and what the verdict means.
Franco absorbed Rodrigues's opening pressure before finding his range on the feet.
Striking entries set up takedowns and sustained positional control in round one.
A right hand backed Rodrigues up in the second; Franco clinched, took mount, and finished with ground-and-pound at 1:40.
- Official UFC resultsUFC Oklahoma City preliminary results
Who Called It?
How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.
Analyst picks: Ben Duffy Hit; AJ Hit; James Lynch Hit; The MMA Guru Hit; Adam Martin Miss; Marcel Dorff Miss; Keith Shillan Miss; Mike Finch Miss; Half The Battle Miss; DFS By The Numbers Miss; JakeGerberMMA Miss.
All 11 analyst scorecardsWinner, method and round results11 scored · 4 hits · 7 misses
| Predicted by | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Historic market Underdog call, market price 41.5%. Franco · KO/TKO | Franco · KO/TKO R2 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
| Sees upset potential in Franco's quicker hands and comparable power, with the defensive flaws on both sides leading him to a knockout pick. Track record: winner called in 13 of 16 resolved picks. | |||||
| Historic market Underdog call, market price 41.5%. Franco · to win | Franco · KO/TKO R2 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
| Takes underdog Franco, favoring his grappling and the prospect of taking Rodrigues down and controlling the fight. Track record: winner called in 75 of 109 resolved picks. | |||||
| Historic market Underdog call, market price 41.5%. Franco · to win | Franco · KO/TKO R2 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
| Takes the underdog Franco on experience and expects a second-round knockout. Track record: winner called in 26 of 36 resolved picks. | |||||
| Historic market Underdog call, market price 41.5%. Franco · to win | Franco · KO/TKO R2 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
| Takes Franco because he has been competitive against stronger opposition than Rodrigues Jr. Track record: winner called in 66 of 99 resolved picks. | |||||
| Historic market Favourite call, market price 58.5%. Rodrigues Jr. · KO/TKO | Franco · KO/TKO R2 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
| Picks Rodrigues to win by knockout, while noting the uncertainty after his suspension. Track record: winner called in 14 of 17 resolved picks. | |||||
| Historic market Favourite call, market price 58.5%. Rodrigues Jr. · KO/TKO · R2 | Franco · KO/TKO R2 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
| Picks Rodrigues by second-round TKO, while flagging the drop to light heavyweight as a variable. Track record: winner called in 13 of 16 resolved picks. | |||||
| Historic market Favourite call, market price 58.5%. Rodrigues Jr. · Dec | Franco · KO/TKO R2 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
| Picks Rodrigues' better striking in a low-confidence decision call. Track record: winner called in 11 of 15 resolved picks. | |||||
| Historic market Favourite call, market price 58.5%. Rodrigues Jr. · KO/TKO | Franco · KO/TKO R2 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
| Picks Rodrigues by knockout, seeing his speed and danger as the better side in a volatile matchup. Track record: winner called in 30 of 49 resolved picks. | |||||
| Historic market Favourite call, market price 58.5%. Rodrigues Jr. · KO/TKO | Franco · KO/TKO R2 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
| Picks Rodrigues to knock out Franco, while noting the unanswered questions if the matchup stays on the mat. Track record: winner called in 40 of 60 resolved picks. | |||||
| Historic market Favourite call, market price 58.5%. Rodrigues Jr. · to win | Franco · KO/TKO R2 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
| Takes Rodrigues based on the more convincing striking, power and cardio from the regional tape. Track record: winner called in 77 of 112 resolved picks. | |||||
| Historic market Favourite call, market price 58.5%. Rodrigues Jr. · to win | Franco · KO/TKO R2 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
| Takes Rodrigues' power and pressure over Franco's inconsistent, hesitant form. Track record: winner called in 60 of 90 resolved picks. | |||||
4 of 11 called the winner.
The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.
Archive Pre-fight material — kept for transparency.
- 5-0-0
- Record
- 10-2-0
- 3-1-1 last 5
- Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
- 3-2 last 5
- Orthodox
- StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
- Orthodox
- Not published
- Sig. strikes landed / minStrikes / minSignificant strikes landed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter lands for every minute of fight time — a read on striking output and pace. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
- 1.81
- —
- Sig. strikes absorbed / minAbsorbed / minSignificant strikes absorbed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter takes for every minute of fight time. Lower is better — it means they get hit less often. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
- 2.55
- —
- Striking defenseStrike def.Striking defenseThe percentage of opponents’ significant strikes that do not land — strikes slipped, blocked or evaded. Higher is better. Not the same as striking accuracy, which counts your own strikes that land. From UFC/FightMetric.
- 38%
- —
- Takedown defenseTD def.Takedown defenseThe percentage of opponents’ takedown attempts that are stuffed. Higher means harder to put on the mat. From UFC/FightMetric.
- 88%
- —
- Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
- 14:54
- Light Heavyweight
- Weight classWeight
- Heavyweight (moving down)
- Brazil
- Nationality
- Brazil
- Inside Muay Thai
- Team
- Galpao da Luta
Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Numbers reflect records coming into fight night. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.
Pre-fight analysis — how we saw it going in
Case for Rodrigues Jr.
Rodrigues is unbeaten and has never heard the final bell — five wins, all knockouts, all inside the distance. He is the fresher finisher, and against a Franco who has been stopped before, one clean early exchange is usually all his power needs.
Case for Franco
Franco is the more experienced finisher (10-2, every win inside the distance) with the grappling to change levels — six knockouts and four submissions mean he can end it standing or on the mat. He has also seen tougher rooms, and the Freddy Vidal tape cuts both ways: Vidal submitted Franco but only managed a no-contest against Rodrigues.
What We Were Watching For
- Two 100% finishers: this rarely reaches the scorecards — who lands the first clean shot?
- Shared Vidal thread: Franco was submitted by Freddy Vidal; Rodrigues fought him to a no-contest — whose result reads better?
- Franco's debut jitters: he was out-pointed by Mario Pinto in his UFC bow — has he settled, or is the Octagon jump still raw?
- Rodrigues' untested chin: 5-0 but never in deep water — what happens if Franco survives the first wave?
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