UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman
Felipe Franco defeats Levi Rodrigues Jr. by KO/TKO
Round 2 · 1:40
Rodrigues Jr. vs Franco — Light Heavyweight · UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman
Predictions summary
What happened
The result, the defining moments, and what the verdict means.
Franco absorbed Rodrigues's opening pressure before finding his range on the feet.
Striking entries set up takedowns and sustained positional control in round one.
A right hand backed Rodrigues up in the second; Franco clinched, took mount, and finished with ground-and-pound at 1:40.
- Official UFC resultsUFC Oklahoma City preliminary results
Pre-fight analysis — how we saw it going in
Case for Rodrigues Jr.
Rodrigues is unbeaten and has never heard the final bell — five wins, all knockouts, all inside the distance. He is the fresher finisher, and against a Franco who has been stopped before, one clean early exchange is usually all his power needs.
Case for Franco
Franco is the more experienced finisher (10-2, every win inside the distance) with the grappling to change levels — six knockouts and four submissions mean he can end it standing or on the mat. He has also seen tougher rooms, and the Freddy Vidal tape cuts both ways: Vidal submitted Franco but only managed a no-contest against Rodrigues.
What We Were Watching For
- Two 100% finishers: this rarely reaches the scorecards — who lands the first clean shot?
- Shared Vidal thread: Franco was submitted by Freddy Vidal; Rodrigues fought him to a no-contest — whose result reads better?
- Franco's debut jitters: he was out-pointed by Mario Pinto in his UFC bow — has he settled, or is the Octagon jump still raw?
- Rodrigues' untested chin: 5-0 but never in deep water — what happens if Franco survives the first wave?
Records & career stats
- 3.74 2.55
- 29% 44%
- 7.27 2.39
- 57% 88%
- 100% 100%
- 5-0-0
- Record
- 10-2-0
- 3-1-1 last 5
- Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
- Not published
- Brazil
- Nationality
- Brazil
- 29
- Age
- 25
- Orthodox
- StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
- Not published
- 04:49
- Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
- 12:09
Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Record is as of fight night; career stats, recent form and win totals are the latest on file and may include this fight. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.
Comments
Who Called It?
How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.
Current pick evidence
Picked: Levi Rodrigues Jr.
Fight result: Felipe Franco · KO/TKO
Takes Rodrigues' power and pressure over Franco's inconsistent, hesitant form.
“Rodriguez by first round knockout. out. If he didn't get an early KO, I could”
Track record: winner called in 101 of 154 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 65.6% (101 hit, 53 miss, across 154 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 60.0% (39 hit, 26 miss, across 65 method-scored calls on 154 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 35.7% (5 hit, 9 miss, across 14 round-scored calls on 154 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (4 hit, 8 miss, across 12 underdog calls on 154 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 65.6% 101 53
- Method Accuracy 60.0% 39 26
- Round Accuracy 35.7% 5 9
- Underdog Accuracy 33.3% 4 8
Current pick evidence
Picked: Levi Rodrigues Jr.
Fight result: Felipe Franco · KO/TKO
Takes Rodrigues based on the more convincing striking, power and cardio from the regional tape.
“going to take Rodriguez to win this fight, and I'm going to take him to win”
Track record: winner called in 112 of 173 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 64.7% (112 hit, 61 miss, across 173 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 61.0% (61 hit, 39 miss, across 100 method-scored calls on 173 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 38.3% (18 hit, 29 miss, across 47 round-scored calls on 173 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 36.4% (8 hit, 14 miss, across 22 underdog calls on 173 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 64.7% 112 61
- Method Accuracy 61.0% 61 39
- Round Accuracy 38.3% 18 29
- Underdog Accuracy 36.4% 8 14
Current pick evidence
Picked: Levi Rodrigues Jr. · KO/TKO
Fight result: Felipe Franco · KO/TKO
Picks Rodrigues to knock out Franco, while noting the unanswered questions if the matchup stays on the mat.
“caution in a match-up like this. But I'll pick Levi to come out here and”
Track record: winner called in 58 of 109 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 53.2% (58 hit, 51 miss, across 109 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 71.4% (10 hit, 4 miss, across 14 method-scored calls on 109 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 66.7% (2 hit, 1 miss, across 3 round-scored calls on 109 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 21.4% (6 hit, 22 miss, across 28 underdog calls on 109 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 53.2% 58 51
- Method Accuracy 71.4% 10 4
- Round Accuracy 66.7% 2 1
- Underdog Accuracy 21.4% 6 22
Current pick evidence
Picked: Felipe Franco · KO/TKO
Fight result: Felipe Franco · KO/TKO
FightIQ's public record lists Felipe Franco as its pick over Levi Rodrigues Jr.
Track record: winner called in 159 of 227 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 70.0% (159 hit, 68 miss, across 227 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 39.9% (59 hit, 89 miss, across 148 method-scored calls on 227 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 55.0% (11 hit, 9 miss, across 20 underdog calls on 227 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 70.0% 159 68
- Method Accuracy 39.9% 59 89
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 55.0% 11 9
Current pick evidence
Picked: Felipe Franco
Fight result: Felipe Franco · KO/TKO
Takes underdog Franco, favoring his grappling and the prospect of taking Rodrigues down and controlling the fight.
“fight. So, Felipe Franco as an underdog is going to be my pick and I'm kind of”
Track record: winner called in 175 of 264 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 66.3% (175 hit, 89 miss, across 264 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 58.7% (61 hit, 43 miss, across 104 method-scored calls on 264 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 77.8% (7 hit, 2 miss, across 9 round-scored calls on 264 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 36.4% (12 hit, 21 miss, across 33 underdog calls on 264 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 66.3% 175 89
- Method Accuracy 58.7% 61 43
- Round Accuracy 77.8% 7 2
- Underdog Accuracy 36.4% 12 21
Current pick evidence
Picked: Felipe Franco
Fight result: Felipe Franco · KO/TKO
Takes Franco because he has been competitive against stronger opposition than Rodrigues Jr.
“I reckon Felipe Franco actually will win”
Track record: winner called in 213 of 322 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 66.1% (213 hit, 109 miss, across 322 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 53.4% (62 hit, 54 miss, across 116 method-scored calls on 322 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 35.9% (14 hit, 25 miss, across 39 round-scored calls on 322 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 47.4% (18 hit, 20 miss, across 38 underdog calls on 322 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 66.1% 213 109
- Method Accuracy 53.4% 62 54
- Round Accuracy 35.9% 14 25
- Underdog Accuracy 47.4% 18 20
Analyst picks: FightIQ Hit; AJ Devito Hit; The MMA Guru Hit; JakeGerberMMA Miss; DFS By The Numbers Miss; Half The Battle Miss.
3 of 6 called the winner.
Chart: selected analyst picks, not a win probability. Pill badge: Winner hit rate (total scored picks before this event).
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The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.
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